tv Mark Penn Microtrends Squared CSPAN April 29, 2018 11:03pm-12:05am EDT
>> hello everybody. hello. hello. my name is heather moran, i'm the executive director. how many are you here for the first time. welcome. it's wonderful to have you and welcome back to everyone who's been here before. that is so cool. we think this is a very special place. we are center for arts, culture and ideas and a synagogue that reimagines how religion and community can be useful in our everyday lives. we are so pleased to have mark here with us this evening. mark has been a singular force in polling, marketing, advertising and political strategy for over 40 years
parties advised some people you've probably never heard of like bill and hillary clinton, bill gates and tony blair and he's worked with some of the most powerful brands in business including ford, microsoft and mcdonald's. he changed the way we thought about swing voters by zeroing in on the soccer mom which is a term he coined and he brought in dozens of counterintuitive trends to light like the new york rise of the internet dating, how many of us, not me, swipe left, swipe right in the fracturing of the republican party in his book micro trends. tonight we are going to hear about his newest book micro trends squared which builds on his powerful premise that the behavior of one small group can exert a disproportionate influence over the entire united states. it is such an interesting read and prepares us for what's coming next and some of those things we might be ready for and some of them we might not be. the rise of intelligent tv, yes
please. nerds with money, great. the rise of open marriage, i'm not ready. after his presentation he will open up his room for questions and lineup and you can use the microphone right here in the center of the room and following the conversation there will be a book signing and at that time you will line up against the back wall. before i welcome mark to the stage and like to take a moment to thank him and his incredible powerhouse of a wife nancy jacobson who our dedicated supporters and without whom we wouldn't be able to do all the wonderful things we do every day. thank you both. now please join me in giving mark a warm welcome. [applause] >> okay. all that preparation and no one will give me the clicker. there it is. thank you.
first of all, thank you very much for coming out tonight. i want to think nancy and the book is dedicated to nancy and my four children, and meredith, the collaborator was also here and i really appreciate you coming out and i will give you a roundup of micro trends and state the case. i have a theory of the case of micro trends. it is that if you kind of think about the things that have been happening, just 800,000 people, the da ca recipients are created an incredibly big political movement. the last election was decided by about 80000 voters in critical
states, and so a lot of the point of the book is that these things that you regard as too small or too insignificant actually turn out to be pivotal in deciding how things come out in society. particularly in today's society where even small groups can wield incredible outside influence. so then i think if you read the book, the most interesting thing about it is to find yourself in it. if you find yourself, that gives a lot of credibility to the chapters about other people because a lot of the problem today is that people know about themselves but they don't necessarily understand all of the other lifestyles that people are living. i think the book tries to cover in a counterintuitive way some of those. there are, before you get to the
micro trends and there are 50 and i'll cover ten or 15 of them in the talk today, there are certain things that are happening in the larger society that resulted in the micro trends. the first is the drive for personalization and individual choice. after all, if everybody were exactly the same and were the same close, you wouldn't have micro trends at all. it's about the differentiation of people and their view and their lifestyle. now, in business, i go back and i say well, you remember henry ford and he really created the ford economy. he created the assembly line, he created the ability to mass produce products, and he had a slogan, any color you want as long as it's black. and so, based on that theory, today we are all going have the
same close and everyone in china would wear the same close, that's just not how the economy turned out. ten years ago, i wrote about the starbucks economy. the starbucks economy is 155 different varieties of a commodity as simple and as black as coffee. and, when you go into starbucks, at starbucks, they did all the work. you just told them what you wanted, they give you this world of choice. in other things, if you take a look and think about it, the ipod which is out of circulation, but your soundtracks, for a while you did the work. the ipod was any color you wanted as long as it was white when it first came out and its unique feature was that the songs were personalized. today, we have the uber economy. uber picks you up from anyplace and takes you anyplace else. that means you're in a world not
of 155 choices but a world of infinite choices. that's pretty much the standard of micro targeting of one, the individuality and the personalization down to you. that is a critical factor in generating the change that we see. now, there was an unexpected problem with all these choices. the problem was that more choices actually lead to less choices. how is that, what do i mean? i tried illustrate this and let's assume that america was a restaurant and it just had chicken or fish. kosher of course, but you could just choose chicken or fish. not a tremendous amount of passion, a lot of people unhappy so let's add some other things to the menu. let's add steak and sushi. the steak eaters really love the
kansas city strips and sushi eaters and everyday they just have sushi and the steak eaters just have steak. well, now think about in the news. everyday people watch msnbc, everyday people like fox. more choices resulted in people dividing themselves out into the things they like and then they stop experiment. when people go into their starbucks today, they say give me the regular. choice became so good it's now what people like and it carved people up. that explains a lot of what we see going on. now, another thing i kind of emphasize in the book as it relates to its cover which is sort of an impossible version and what i really say is the law
of trends which is that for every trend there is a countertrend. for every technology loving group, there is a group, for everything you can imagine, every political movement. in newton, they had to be opposite and equal. they don't necessarily have to be equal but those counter trends are typically bigger than you think. i didn't realize that 2 million flip farms were sold in america last year and in fact, production of flip phones is going out because people see smart phones and they say i don't live like that. that's the way society divides itself up. now, let's look at some big trends in counter trends that really delve into a lot of the stuff you see. we are in the age of information and we are also in the greatest
age of misinformation. millennial's dominate a lot of the cultural theme and will discuss in a minute or two other folks have never been more powerful and reasserted themselves. smart phone and the flip phone surge, silicon valley versus the old accountant jen economy voters. what you think is going on when the president says i want tariffs, and by the way, amazon is cheating the post office. that is the conflict between silicon valley and what benefits it and the old economy. those voters from indiana to pennsylvania who voted quite strongly on the selection and what benefits them. you see it actually taking place before your eyes and understand that what you're seeing and the reason why there's so much combat his power is seesawing
back and forth among these trends and counter trends. policies versus common sense politics, its international trade is quite difficult to understand unless there's a theory that giving more to your people overseas results in more jobs, those are egghead theories, if i am better to iran then they will integrate into the world economy and if they do that the regime will change, those are primarily theoretically based versus common sense policies and their are enemy. and so, you've seen a reestablishment of those being great, but how about some more direct common sense. something i cover extensively in the book is people have never ever been more educated than they are today. more than two thirds go to college and the problem, one of
the biggest problems is that the elites, the most educated among us have become the most susceptible to talking points. i had a phenomenon when i was working for hillary, someone would come up to me and say if hillary were just more likable i would vote for her. phd. then something would come up to me and say if hillary's health care plan would emphasize cost over coverage i think i would be more interested in voting for her. middle-class voter. now, you would think it would be reversed, that the person who is coming to you about the intricate details of health care plan with a phd in the person who just wanted her to tell better jokes was not even a middle-class voter but it was not that way. in fact, what happened is the elites have become so removed from these problems that they
have no idea what they pay for healthcare, with their employer pays for healthcare, with the daily problems really are. the middle-class voters are far more educated and have greater access to information and have a much greater connection to policy and so, there has kind of been a flip around of our democratic model and i also, in one of my jobs people don't realize that was 2500 people dedicated to pushing talking points out to elites who are the most susceptible to talking points. the smarter you are, the more susceptible you are to just taking someone else's opinion. completely reversed. that's why understanding the battle between the trends on the counter trends is very important to understanding a society that seems beyond understanding. so, although the book is not an election book, it's more about lifestyles, i didn't think i could get away without giving some comments on the last
election and what i thought was pivotal in that. i don't think it was about hundred thousand dollars spent on facebook. i do think it was about these old economy voters who, interestingly, when i left working for president clinton, manufacturing jobs have stabilized at about 20 million and i thought they would step stabilized for quite some time because we had growth of about 24 million jobs and we cap manufacturing jobs map same. it turns out, over the next two presidencies, half of those manufacturing jobs were lost. we were down to 11 million. that was an enormous transformation in many of these states that went completely ignored by the political system. it was a powerful political force that would then mobilize. we think that everything is dominated by young people, there are more old people in our
society today than ever before. when jfk was elected, young people 18 to 29 were roughly twice a bigger population group as those over 65. today it's about equal and climbing from the older side. what you saw is older voters weather was here or in brexit, they're reasserting themselves saying hey, i'm not ready for all those other things that may be coming to millennial's and i think they took power back. society divided themselves into more niches than ever before, we are about the same number of liberals and conservatives, there's actually more conservatives in this country than liberals, but we have more very liberal and very conservative. people have become more intense as they consume their steak and sushi. i think what we've seen, essentially this polarization
and drive for our politics to be much more combative, but i do think the swing, democrats, republicans was the critical factor, and of course the impressionable belief, none of them believed that donald trump could win. the new york times that was 93% chance that hillary was going to win therefore they accepted the talking points. they didn't really see the changes that were occurring that could make it possible, and so they were in shock ever since. so, not only have there been dynamics in politics but there are a couple of critical things have changed particularly since the last micro trend that i think is also worth observing. number one, what i call footloose and fancy free, millennial's now typically will go to college, have years of
work and have pushed back five years marriage, family and children. that means a lot of people will now spend 10 - 15 years here in more urban areas going to six and i which caters to exactly that phenomenon because when people came out high school and married her high school sweetheart, the number of years they had on their own were almost none. now people have a lot of years on their own, time for roommat roommates, it's a great thing for post mates and it used to be chinese food, but i think that's changed, datings of the number of relationships people have, and the implications of this and people spending so much more time in the urban areas together in this lifestyle i think we are just beginning to understand. unfortunately, in the end, one of the things we observed with the book is the more money
people get and the more time people get, the first thing they tend to get rid of his kids. you would've thought it would've been the opposite, but in almost every society there is tremendous population growth. we are actually in danger of almost going negative in the population growth. seniors, they are living longer, the richer than ever before because of a lot of policies that were put into place 50 - a hundred years ago and they are more conservative and having a lot more fun than they've had in the past. keep that in mind. role versus the cities, the cities have had a real revival while the revival had a population gain entry and drain. they kept a lot of their political power and a lot of it's divided up by state and area and the electoral college emphasizes that. the question will be, what do we
do with all this land that people no longer half. we always thought there would be no land left and where is anybody going to go. if anything, we've been drying more and more to these urban centers. changes in technology that you have to keep in mind, data is the new oil it's the new gold, it's the most valuable thing because for every marketer they need data. minute talking a couple minutes, ai bots are coming, this is the fact that artificial intelligence is creating things to have a relationship with an increasingly going to be a factor in the way you interact in technology and that will add a new dimension. i'm fairly negative on driver liz car, i don't think of your reality for quite some time, i think the car companies will find that out.
big data is here. look, i'm lucky if i have a single picture of my great-grandmother. today every person has a data set that begins at birth and goes all the way up, there's an amazing amount of data. i was amazed that one of the first customers at microsoft and for the cloud with an elevator company that had 50000 elevators. they then took information on every elevator and how many people when in in which floor and all that and of course you have no idea as you go through daily life how much of what you do is recorded so they can predict when an elevator would break down or they could go back if they had a camera and look at who was in the elevator, you have no idea how much data and
information is out there and how much personal information is being created. that's why this whole thing over facebook is bringing in, bringing back a debate about personal data. when i was at microsoft i iran something where i presented people, did you know that your mail and your texts are scanned and read in all that information if you think it's so uniquely private it's analyzed that you went to the doctor and you might need a medicine you say you have no idea what information the tech companies were gathering on you and i don't think it's a bad thing necessarily that they gathered it, i think it's a bad thing they didn't you didn't know they gathered it. you couldn't choose privacy or pay for because they just slid past you. it was an interesting exercise, facebook and google, if you want to be horrified they've just revealed how you can download
all the information they have about you. it's amazing. take all those things as backdrops to big things that are going on a much talk a little bit about some of the micro trends. there are 50 in the book, i'll cover a few of them, one of my favorites, it turns out that if you're age 65 and are single, which i'm not, there are hundred single women for every 62 men, this racial ratio has been closing a little bit, but they didn't have internet dating in the past and they are little richer and so sexually transmitted diseases were not a problem before and senior citizen communities, but let's just say that in fact seniors are living a whole new dating
life and guys that can really make it in high school, if they make it to 65 and are single, they are having the time of their life. i would say the book starts out with relationships because they wanted people to kind of get interested in the book, this one, i love this one. i'm in a ping-pong a little bit between the older generation, single with pets. typically the old pet model was that you had a couple kids, they reached five, six, seven or eight and they demanded a pet. you reluctantly gave in and the pet got scrapped and join the family and the family got there. i cover how when kids went college parents felt they were empty-nesters and so they then got these pets and treated them like children and gave them
incredible amounts of disposable income. now people hang around for ten or 15 years before they get married and have a family and they say how about getting a dog now. 70% of millennial's have some kind of pet. if you look at the pet industry it's something like $70 billion of incredible growth because these new groups. the only problem with this, this pooch also gets incredible amounts of love because it's no children to compete with it. and also, because it's there all day it might get a dog walker and then it's somewhat a guilty feeling, parents get a gml food and pet hotels, pet spas, all that stuff is doing incredibly well. the only problem is later on if they get married and have a child, that dog is in for
incredible shock when they are number two and of course we will need more pet psychologists. [laughter] so people over 90 were pretty much a rarity. actually, i didn't realize that prince philip is 96 until i was looking at that yesterday. if you kind of look at how this has quadrupled from 700,000 to two and half million and we are headed, in the next 20 or 30 years to about 8 million so you're going to have a tremendous explosion of people living over 90 and if you get to 65, you have now about a 30% chance of being a nonagenarian and this means that one of the most explosive job categories as home health aide. we have a shortage of them and
it's actually an interesting area for robotics. these are my footloose and fancy free, this is kind of the point i was making that really if you think about this, once marriage age got pushed back all of these years and it turns out if you spend ten or 15 years on your own, sharing is not your first instinct. so you do get married, but there's actually, i have a chapter on independent marriage which is to say more separate bedrooms are being built than ever before. i'm married, no problem, but i like the light off when i like the light off. and so, a lot of these habits that one gets and that's the way couples are evolving. there's going to be many repercussions and i think it's
been critical to revitalizing the urban areas and urban housing. it's been bad for religion because a lot of people don't get as religious until they have their first child and that becomes a transformative experience. one of the things that they do so well for people is in this age range is to keep them interested and nationally if you look at younger people during this time you will see religion falling off. on the other end of the spectrum, there are two through two drivers. each of these stars and actresses are cancer survivors. there weren't a lot of cancer survivors before because part of what happens is that as other diseases like heart disease were pulled back so people got to live longer and there's more cancer. there's a group, in terms of the
numbers i think we will have about 13 million cancer survivors and as a class, i would actually come in the book i put myself in this class, it's an incredible experience if you get that diagnosis, there's a tremendous amount of attention and then it's a successful nothing. nothing good but there's no support groups, people don't even harass me for contributions, they just lose track of you. because the system was never set up for survivors. so, they were never much of a class of people, but when you look at this they become a larger more active class and they've been effective in many ways in terms of the way they look at life and a lot of micro trends are just saying these are people who, soccer moms could be recognized as a group.
they can be crystallized as a group and brought together for some reason or public good. kids on meds. there has been this incredible spike of the adhd diagnosis. we are talking about like a tripling so that if you look at it, it somewhere, depending on the age category between ten, 11 and up to 15% of children and teenagers and below, i think it's 3%. [inaudible] 80% of them typically will be medicated for the disease. i would say my daughter who is a psychiatrist has said look, you got understand, and by the way, it's almost all boys, it's 2 - 1 boys and interestingly it was
very little in the minority community until the obamacare expansion made these drugs in this healthcare more available to broader classes. you've seen an increase in minority families whose kids also have these drugs. now, the question is, is it a good thing or a bad thing? the case for a good thing and the reason they're giving it is it's incredibly difficult to get through school today. it's much more demanding and requires much more attention, patience and focus. so you look at this and you say you know what, this is helping millions of kids make life a little easier for the parents, but also to get through school. the bad thing would be we don't really know the long-term effect of having kids on medication from age two or five or 17 and they expect to have that medication to be lifelong or
will some of these symptoms fade away. we don't know but part of micro trends is to say here's a rising phenomenon, no one's really focused on it everyone's focused on the opioid crisis and they're not looking at the explosion of kids on meds and they don't look at the problem until it becomes too big or out-of-control and here's a time we could look at this and say is this right, is this good. the bot industry is information, the first bot that i think people interacted with was really the atm machine. i am old enough that i did polling for banks with the atm machine, people are incredibly frightened of dealing with atms. you have no idea. now they don't want to go talk to a teller. it's ridiculous. so, now today, you have to be
careful because we have things like alexa and alexa is programmed to respond to your questions and is a much more sophisticated bot. in the book i talk about industries that are likely to take off but for now i'll stick with alexa. is alexa a he or she? anybody want to answer that? alexa is in it. it's a fundamental ethical principle that a bunch of code is never called and he or she and if you read through the literature of the company very carefully, they dance around this point. if you ask alexa are you a he or she alexa says i am in female character. that's a slimy answer. because it avoided the question. alexa did not say i am in it.
and today i am because she left that part out. i made the mistake and called her a sheet. that's the concept. the concept is to make you feel that you're having a relationship when in fact are you talking to a salesperson who's been sitting in the middle of your living room trying to sell you the next on amazon shipment or are you talking to a friend who is trying to help you out with the weather? you don't know. i worked intact, so i know. in the book i tell you, but what happens is overtime with technology is things start out as your friend helping you and the driver monetize asian transforms them into essentially selling you stuff. if you look today on the google page, more advertisement, less and less is organic search, even if you use one of the mapping programs, it's now trying to sell you over in the middle.
why? because someone at headquarters that both get more money. let's stop getting them all this information for free. it affects the course of things in the problem is you don't know. you don't know what they will be like, you don't know who they're working for, you don't know how their programs, if you have a driverless car, it would be good for you to know if the driverless car is facing a choice between killing you and killing pedestrian widgets going to choose. so, i do warn about that. uptown stoners is about the emerging marijuana market. about 20% of it now because of california and colorado is recreational. you think of products in the big
market will be upscale marijuana. the rest of the market might be commoditized but this is something you should try to check out. korean beauty. the koreans have ordered more of these books and they follow these trends. this k beauty industry is about a 13 billion-dollar industry. they heavily export the beauty products and adjust blue wave the previous paradigms of
cosmetics. this is just an incredible example of how a micro trend can be carved out of nothing. when the government told you you had to go have carbohydrates and everybody got that and they said we were wrong about that and they made proteins thing a little bigger but basically people believe protein is it so then we went to examine okay, what protein was the big winner now that protein surged. okay, chicken. chicken was an enormous winner because in fact, chicken consumption went from 20 pounds. person in the u.s. to 90 pounds. person a year. i immediately went out and bought chicken stock.
i think china would be an incredible growth market but people decided chicken taste good enough, cost is good and doesn't have many health problems. the pork industry had been collapsing and now they're saving themselves but other things suffered like fish. i thought sushi was going to be dead but then i realize they only serve sushi and restaurants and that was a very washington d.c. [inaudible] i would say my father was in the chicken business i had wish that he had lived to see this. old economy voters, as i said before, i think they played a pivotal role, i think the last three or four presidencies, they write in the macroeconomic sense to pursue these policies but
i could get my slice of potato to the pole. it's a defect that this potato is as large as it is. after the election there's the same disunity that you have the day before the election and that is a systemati hazel where a single housekeeper took care of everything, the point today is there's been an explosion. when they say why are so many
people employed we have so much technology, it's because it really turned out that rather than buying more things, what people wanted were more services. dog walking, nails, therapy, pet therapy and so on. 40% was service industry, what i say is were now in the pampering economy. they spend it on themselves even more was services and products than ever before. your life doesn't have a single hazel but it can have five or ten people who know very intimate details of you who help get you across the finish line. the book goes through 50 trends like this and eventually come
down to the benefit and the changes so i'll rush through a little bit on this but some of the benefits, look we've had incredible presence and personalization. technology is richly universal. you have the same smart phone that bill gates has. many other things that were only available to a few people. big tech has become superpowerful. ai can be abused for commercial purposes, big data does serve people with privacy and kids and family are victims. my point coming out is that we've got these wonders but we really have to start working on the other side. if we don't we'll find ourselves in increasing problem.
>> i go through in the book changing the antitrust laws, spreading out the benefits of the economy, having a new set of ethics, give people more control over their personal data, what i tried to do as they look not to say that we have these problems but give a good set of remedies for those problems all the way down to getting rid of the caucuses that give too much power. finally i would say everyone who reads the book will find themselves and also understand a few things that data is king in the sense that if you're in business you have to understand your customers in deep and meaningful ways because if you don't your competitor will and your competitor will be more
effective at marketing and you will be out of business. that is just the cold reality, think services as much is product, remember that for every marketplace there is a counter marketplace, that would be a cool corollary and i hope that everyone here will find the micro trends whether it's in their personal life or religious life that can have meaning to them and understand society and give them some direction and explanation. with that, thank you very much. [applause] >> we can take about ten minutes a questions, it's always tough to get the first question. >> when i first saw the topic, i thought i'd ask about teacher strikes and what that tells you
about any changing of the fundamental trends but then i saw your book, the chart that showed something like say people lie to pollsters in person and they give more meaningful information when they're online. what does that say about data integrity and understanding trends because of the data integrity issue? >> i do have a chapter about how don't go into language teaching at this moment. i'm not sure there will be language teaching when we get to the universal translators, but i do, i am very much taken by finding from one of the poles that i do which said that 40% of people are afraid to tell their political views to their family
and 60% are afraid to do that work. we do have, i do believe, i kind of conclude that there's ten or 15 million people who are probably more conservative than polls let on, there's probably some liberals and conservative areas that would be the countertrend to that and it is a problem, i do think overall there's about a 5% difference between online polls and poles that are done with a live interviewer and i think that is the effect that people feel more comfortable and more anonymous online today, but always remember the secret ballot is very important and poles, i believe in polls. they are indicative, but there are differences and they wouldn't govern by polls, i would use them in aid but not as a definitive message.
questions? >> what do you see the crypto currency trend? >> a disaster. >> regulations black no, it's your impressionable beliefs. i am with the crowd that says there's no value here. i think that people think there is a methodology in the block chain that could be used to complete confidential transactions and verify transactions. that is different than crypto currency marketplace which is now down to 6000 or so, but there's no government behind it. people barely believe in currencies that were backed by government. why would people believe in currencies that are backed by nobody. this whole phenomenon to me is so classic.
they do think driverless cars will take another 20 or 30 years but the kidding themselves if they think the computers are good enough and ai is good enough to go without a fender bender without a fatal accident. i think they're discovering that relatively quickly. it's not that bill never come through, but i do think they are overexcited about that and over invested. the last question, anyone else.
>> do you think there could be a correlation between the increase in adhd medication does that correlate to the opioid addictions that were seeing now? >> it would correlate in the sense that they both came up at the same time but i don't know that i'd find a causal relationship. i don't think it's because parents who were taking opioids had them prescribed kids. i do think this was much more upper-class phenomenon and now it spread more universally. i think it correlates more with the greater availability of prescriptions, the greater faith by doctors in the medicine themselves and more parents wanting their kids to succeed in
school. i don't think they're connected because i don't think there's a causal relationship. i guess the question you would have is our drug companies behind it. as they get older is there some sort of a drug to alleviate pressures and become more susceptible. >> that's what i'm trying to hint, i think this is developed now in the last ten or 15 years so i don't think those kids are the opioid kids. i think the question is whether or not these kids will become the opioid kids and that's really what i was saying, we better double check this and make sure it doesn't happen because now you're talking not
about a small number of kids taking medication but ten or 15 million kids. >> you just spoke about healthcare. i have a question in a different aspect of it. we've soaring mergers even since the first of the year, at nine and walmart and humana, the pharmacy benefit managers, what is this leading to? and for breaking down the silos in the industry were people could perhaps be not insured but members of a healthcare conglomerate that can offer all of these things to them and maybe they can compete, maybe each one will be like a mini national health service in the uk. that might be good or might be bad.
my question is what you think this is leading to and will we have to worry about mandates and the affordable care act anymore the future of this trend continues? >> i think the unexpected development is the resurgent of the insurance company. i think the conventional wisdom was that insurance companies would be gone by now. they really didn't serve that much of a purpose in the marketplace and that either was wrong or government policy decided not to tangle. i think what you're seeing are these insurance companies having more lasting presence in the marketplace. some of these mergers in the pharmaceutical and individual are trying to be in all three
levels of the industry right now. where are you now? you're entering a period where there's going to continue to be sustained growth in healthcare because their sustained growth in older people. that will result in continued growth and opportunity. look at big data and how that's revolutionaries these countries, cvs is in the old cvs and they're not the amazon either. i'm surprised someone came along and did this incredible experience rather than something that half works with the. [inaudible] i think were seeing less change than we thought on this, i'm not quite sure what the reduction or
the mandate will do, that was really paid mostly by young people didn't want the insurance anyway. i think will have to see where that goes and politics is going to swing back. if it doesn't swing back the next election you're sure it's going to swing back the election after that. >> in listening to you, it seems like a lot of your micro trends are focused on the united states and i'm curious how they relate to the rest of the world given the internet and thomas freedman stuff and the things that are happening around us. >> we do focus about 80% on the u.s. and we do a double check on some of these internationally because most of them in the book
say okay, is the same thing happening. take for example my first one, green bachelors is happening pretty much everywhere with one exception. do i guess what that exception is? that one child policy only had guys so they have a gazillion guys and in many places america is a trend leader and we look to see if the same things happen. there's things like a beauty that was looked for certain ones around the world where we say okay let's give credit to some that are originating. that's kind of how we did that in a thicket makes for a more relatable book.
last question, not. >> thank you for an excellent presentation. i look forward to reading the book. i imagine there are probably a lot more than 50 trends when you're trying to select these and i love that most of it was geared toward policy change. was it because you're interested in shifting these policy i guess i'm asking if some micro trends were more important than others. >> that's a good question. are some micro trends more important than others and how do they select. >> i think they spend a lot of time with meredith and we kind of define the list. i thought would have to do more but we were better at that.
i do something that's counterintuitive because i don't want to have just a bunch of trend you've already read about the environment and things like that. part of it is to give you something that's a little bit interesting to think about. the truth of the matter is there could be 500 micro trends. i think what i also want people to get through the book as this technique of taking a look at numbers, understanding what's happening, may be getting some understanding about why it's happening, and most importantly think about what the implications could be. : :
and it just turns out just like my first model to choose people who are like them. unexpectedly it turns out to be exactly the opposite. when you find the importance of them. they are important to society. thank you. i'm happy to sign books and i hope you enjoy it. [applause] [inaudible conversations]
>>host: ron kessler, your new book you say president trump bravado and exaggeration and controversial comments is a means to the edge and you say 80% of the time the staff says he has a plan that he sticks with the 20% he wakes up and goes a different direction. talk about the donald trump the dealmaker. >> like a boxer he is always diverting attention bobbing and weaving counterpunch