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tv   2018 Mexican Presidential Election  CSPAN  June 25, 2018 1:03pm-2:34pm EDT

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do. since we know what happened in one county, will hurt the whole country. that's what russia trying to do. even if they just take one county outcome it hurts the integrity of our whole democracy and hence the id we should have his support for what we expect states to do. the. >> the secretary has expressed a range of opinions on a prescriptive the federal requirement should be. what is your position on that? >> -- [inaudible] literally any audit, in the audit. >> we just want on its. [inaudible] [inaudible conversations]
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>> the u.s. senate gaveled into 3 p.m. eastern. karen c-span2 we live in washington at the woodrow wilson center for discussion on the upcoming mexico president election. that election is set for the sunday mexico. live coverage on c-span2. >> we are less than a week way from the story collection mexico. we are delighted with us three of the leading experts in mexico on politics, both executive, presidential, legislative, state, et cetera your this is hand-picked panel. it wasn't just three people we found randomly on the streets of mexico city. delighted to have a global fellow with the mexican institute back with us again. his last presentation here a few months ago on the election race really left a big mark here so jorge will be giving us an overview and a couple minutes
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about what we stand in the polling numbers. many of you already know what the presidential race looks like but jorge has a bunch of other data in there that will give you extra texture on that. delighted to have with us joy langston. joy is not an old friend, a longtime friend from mexico. she works at the cide university and is an expert on state-level politics on the pre-and pre-ann governors in mexico in particular. i asked her to talk about what will be having at the state level. last but by no no, no means erc magar, leukocytes of art. great to have you here. i hope we will have three opening presentations about 15-20 15-20 minutes each and we should have half an hour for q&a. without any further ado wholly i will ask you to lead us off. >> thank you. thank you, duncan. thank you to the mexican
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institute. to give you another view of electoral preference this moment, just five days before the election to explain the polls developed by -- which is polling that you may already know. this morning, or last night and this morning to report republished on this aggregation of polls show cooperation of these tuples. probably the news about this published yesterday and today is that the advantage of record on your up to with a percentage points. the polls show more or less comfortable lead of 5% of the falls.
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if you look at the data right now, it's a huge advantage, about 20 percentage points, 47-27. so if you look at the mexico newspapers and the mexican media, you will see that there is a lot of debate about who is going to be in the second place. and if you look at the ads and the declarations, the statements made by either jose antonio meade or ricardo anaya, you would think very serious fight for second place. this is kind of incredible. that has been a logic of the campaign because as you can see, only candidate has increased its lead since the beginning of the campaign. if you look at aggregate numbers, for instance, in
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february had about 38, 39% that's polling and electoral preferences. right now it's about 37, 48. eight. and if you compare these numbers with november, december of late last year, has increases support about ten, 12 percentage points. the other candidates have not moved that much. so probably the most important event took place in february when there were all this criticism or accusations of money laundering against ricardo anaya which translate into an increasing support for obrador and remain with the same level of support. but this is probably the key moment and i will show you later some figures that support this view.
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so today it's very clear who the leader is. this is not parliamentary system or like the u.s. or the electoral college decides who wins so it's very clear that obrador has a very big advantage. i want to emphasize this. i mean, what will happen for obrador to lose? people talk about polling mistakes in the past. you could have a very catastrophic band where polls are really, really long for this result not to be true. because the advantage is so huge, on the one hand, you can see the different polls that have different percentages. actually this is polling evidence, 47%, but just when we go, ten days ago there were polls giving obrador and level of support of about 2%.
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so even with ten points error by the polls, i mean, obrador would still win. the other thing is look at the trends. we don't see a trend of the second-place going up and first-place declining like it happened in 2012, 2006, the 2000 year election. so for me those are the two things, a very comfortable lead for obrador and a trend that if, that does not say anything about the second-place with growing. you can see clearly here how obrador has increased role on the campaign train.
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it's very, very clear level of increase, especially since late december when all the candidates were known. this is a very important theme because he of the candidates just remain stable or decline. there is a lot of volatility and obviously one of the reasons of electoral volatility in presidential systems are the candidates. how well party does or how bad it does depends a lot on the identity of the candidates, and you can see also here how opinion about the candidates has changed during the campaign. november of last year lopez tree was a decisive figure mexican public opinion. 33% had a good opinion about
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him, 33% had a negative opinion about him. he was more or less like what's happened in 2006, the culture divided about how good lopez obrador could be. but then you could see that his positives begin to increase a lot, and that, and he's the only candidate perhaps more or less has that trend, means also improves a lot ideas more negative than positives. obviously, increasing positive for me is a greater name recognition but still it's in the negative reality. that's just a very promising start and then he just stabilized. if you look at the balance of opinion, lopez obrador is the only one that has a positive balance of opinion, which means his positives outweigh his
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negatives. the other two candidates are in the negative area. so this more or less tells you the whole story about the campaign. so what happened at the level of social groups regional? the first two measures are the actual official result of 2006 and 2012, and you can see the support for lopez obrador along these 12 years. this is a region of the pacific north. this was an area of part of the country that didn't like lopez obrador either in 2006 and 2012. you can see that calderón was able to win the presidency because he had a very clear advantage of more than 20 percentage points over lopez obrador in 2006.
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in 2012, the story is more or less the same between kenya and lopez obrador. lopez obrador never got more than 24% of the vote in these northern regions of the country. right now we are seeing two things, a very clear increase in support for lopez obrador in this area, this region. and look also what happened in february of this year. they were tied but after accusations of money laundering against ricardo anaya, they took advantage of that was lopez obrador. he increased his support, like 14 percentage points, and anaya lost about nine percentage point in this area. so right now it's almost a two to one relationship between
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lopez obrador and anaya in this area. and you can see that the pri has not got an increase in support in this region. so i think that this graph in this region really shows you what happened during the campaign. the accusations of money-laundering translated into a decreasing support for anaya, and an increase in support for lopez obrador. and the pri didn't benefit at all from this. another region that it's very important to take a look is the southern part of mexico where the most underdeveloped areas of the country are. you could see that lopez obrador in 2006 and 2012 was very competitive in that area.
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his main opposition was the pri. indeed, even in 2006 and 2012 the pri never got below 30% of support. but then, this is another important trend that explains what's going on in mexico right now. there was a very important crisis for the pri in the states that compose the southern parts of mexico, especially in the state of veracruz where the former governor is now in jail and the same thing happen with the governor of -- [inaudible] so at the beginning of the campaign what we have here is that this region just went for lopez obrador, 60% of support.
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nothing has changed that much since the beginning of the year. this is something that happened either in 2017 or 2016. and look at the decline of the pri and hasn't changed that much. and the pan is doing more or less. it is three to one advantage of lopez obrador over that pan or the pri in this region. so this explains a lot why we have right now lopez obrador at the level that has him being a respected or this kind of unique in this regard, because we are used to have in the past a lot of electoral fragmentation. it was very difficult for a candidate to get past over the threshold of 40% of support, and nowadays we have lopez obrador at 47. another important change is look
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at gender. males have always been a base of support for lopez obrador. usually the male vote, males vote for lopez obrador in a higher proportion than females. but that's not the case anymore. what happened in the campaign is that lopez obrador was able to gain the female vote, especially after accusations against ricardo anaya at the beginning of the campaign. there was a tie in the female post between anaya and lopez obrador, and after the accusations advantage of lopez obrador has increased a lot. millennials is a part of the explanation of what happened with the dynamics of the campaign. it was a a very competitive grp
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at the beginning of the year, but later on they just went from lopez obrador and they abandoned ricardo anaya. what lopez obrador gained in this group, it's what anaya lost. and nothing happened with support for antonio meade. you can see a lot of the stability and support for the pri, which is also a confirmation of that, the pri is already counting on his hard-core supporters. haven't moved that much during the campaign. location is another important story. unlike what many people think, in 2006, 2006 people with low levels of education which tend
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to be the poor ones in mexico, they didn't support lopez obrador that much. it was a very competitive group. primarily because of official programs from the government, social policy. but right now, especially during the campaign, support for lopez obrador among this group is increased to 50%. in previous election was only 36, 38% for lopez obrador. but the story of the campaign is also illustrated with the better educated people in mexico. in 2006 this group was not convinced of lopez obrador. actually, they voted more for felipe calderón. people with education tend to be the better of society, so you can also argue that this was
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kind of social class vote, and this group was not -- in 2006. but nowadays since the beginning of the campaignt was clearly favor of lopez obrador. so to sum up some of these figures, you can see that the advantage that lopez obrador has is more or less the same amount all social groups. like the past there is no division of mexican society. let's say some regions support him, some regions oppose him, some social groups are against him. nowadays we see that lopez obrador is the front runner in these different social groups. i want to close with issues, corruption, which is the most pressing issue for the mexican
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public that needs to be solved. the securities, one of them, 40% say so. 27% say it is corruption, economic conditions 50%. and you see clear that lopez obrador has the advantage of the issue of corruption. people who think that corruption is the most pressing issue, almost half of them supports lopez obrador. this is an issue that clearly benefits lopez obrador. look at support for anaya. doesn't change that much, depending on the issue that you care about. probably he does a little bit better with people to think about insecurity, and meade isn't very clear third-place regardless of which is very you care most about. the story with a different set
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of questions, what should be the priority of the next government. corruption, also people care more about corruption supports more lopez obrador and people that say that security should be the top issue. so corruption is playing to the advantage of lopez obrador, although it's not a very clear-cut issue. lopez obrador does pretty well, regardless of issue you care about. his level of support increases a little bit more. nafta. 67% of the mexican population supports nafta. thinks it's good for the mexican economy, and you don't see differences in support for the candidates, depending on their attitudes towards nafta. support for lopez obrador is more or less the same,
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regardless of your opinion about nafta, and it has not become an issue in this campaign. probably what is most striking about this is the mexican public is really in favor of nafta probably because it trump doesn't like nafta and mexican people doesn't like trump, therefore we want nafta. 68% 68% say that mexico should continue nafta, and also you don't see changes in electorates in support of the candidates depending on their attitudes towards nafta. so to sum up, what we are looking right now it's a very comfortable lead of lopez obrador. we don't see a trend that the second place is growing, so which makes more difficult to catch up with lopez obrador. just remember six years ago, now
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president pena was going down in the polls with the election took place. lopez obrador was going up, and then the difference of seven percentage points that came as a surprise come to some extent you could see the trend that this may actually have happened before. but now we are not seeing those trends. the preferences happen more or less stable, it is the second place doesn't increase his level of support, he is never going to catch lopez obrador. and second, we don't see a society as divided regarding lopez obrador as in the past. nowadays he's getting support from all the important economic groups that we have analyzed in the polls. is not a society that is as polarized regarding lopez obrador. also this explains why the
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negative campaign hasn't worked out for the pri or for that opinion. the mexican public as you saw in the figures in the balance of opinion, lopez obrador, nowadays doesn't have a highly negative or highly critical view of lopez obrador as it used to have in the past. nowadays positive opinions about lopez obrador are twice the size of the negative opinions. and that tells you a lot about the dynamics of this election, and i will stop on this. >> jorge, thank you very much for that. i see a lot of people taking photographs of the slice. we will have everything on the website shortly after the presentation so don't worry about that. i want to thank you all for being here but as you can see this is a sold-out event. if you didn't get your tickets on ticketmaster on time, i'll point you to step up next on, okay? we will move on to eric magar to talk about the legislative perspective or outlook and so
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whilst we load up the presentation, eric, i don't know where you want to sit or stand, okay, perfect. the microphone is yours. >> thank you. well, my presentation is being uploaded, i'm eric magar from itam. that one, thank you. okay, so every thing set up your i come from itam in mexico city, and i will be speaking of the congressional races in the next sunday. as you probably know, all seats in mexico's bicameral congress are up for grabs next sunday, and this has been much less salient election than the horse race in the presidential, for the presidential seat.
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yet i will try to argue that it's equally important. we can expect very important changes in this congressional election. although the forecast is a bit harder to do because unlike presidential races there is very little polling that is actually relevant to compute the expectations. yet, i mean, i will try to do this a little guesstimate based on some of information that is around. okay, so you probably know that mexico's electoral system has some elements that are like the u.s., and others that make it different. with a mixed electoral system. in the lower chamber, voters have one vote which they give to one candidate in their district but that district, there's a winner decided by plurality in
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the district but the boat carries onto a proportional representation, parallel track, where party seats are distributed by percentage of vote shares to party. in the upper chamber you also have one vote that you give to two candidates list in your state. the voter, the party or the list with the plurality gets both seat and the run-up gets another edit extra seat and there's 32 ecstasies distributed by devotional representation. this is not too different from the german system but it's quite different from the americans. so lopez obrador party sent sal coalition agreement with two other parties. they actually all three major candidates are running on multiparty coalitions and marina
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is made up of two new parties, his own, morena, formerly french party, and an evangelical party, the pes pixel it's a pretty odd coalition but what is striking is that these coalition agreement have to distribute the pie ex-ante. the distribution is quite surprising once you see that the small parkers got incredibly large shares of the seat or the nominations. if you look on the left side column is the nominees for federal districts. there are 300 districts here half of them have a morena candidate but the other half are basically split between an evangelical at least formally an evangelical and other are for pt. given with the notice we saw with the potential for
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single-member districts that the coalition might have, that will bring actually a substantial amount of formerly very small nonexistent parties into the chambers. if you look at the senate, there's these two members that are ranked and there's 19 of 32 states, there is one with no coalition, where both names come from morena but then there's 12 states where only one or none come from lopez obrador party. he gave up a huge price to the minor coalition parties and that's a big puzzle, why this ex. there's also the possibility that some of these are what use called watermelons, morena types that are just beginning to be noted by the other party but we don't know much about that. those are things that we have to discover or investigate further later. >> predicting the lower house is
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actually that tough call because there's the district level polling. there are a few polls at the state level but those tend to be two lakh represented samples of the stick and he did not give a good idea of how the boat is distributed geographically which makes sense, it's important to know which of districts might be one by lopez obrador. in the past in the pan for example, used to when you have lots of votes concentrated in the capitals come in the cities and not so much in the countryside. that may be changing that really we have no clue about all this. so whether this translates into a landslide of single-member seats, victories for united states or not remains to be seen. but basically i would use a very simple rule of thumb that if you take lopez obrador's percentage of votes, that should fairly translate into a percentage of seats that they might win.
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and given the seat distribution which is basically spec half of those to go for morena candidates and one coat each of the two minor partners. so there's one advantage in trying to guess what, there's -- it doesn't work. trying to guess what the percentage of votes is not to art in mexico because presidential coattails tend to be much larger than in the u.s. basically at the end of the 19 century in the as is basically one on one relationship between an extra point in the presidential race, basically by that party or the presidential candidates party, next to point in that's been eroding in the past center but in mexico at least left because there's distinct degree for different parties but the pri which is the former party that lopez obrador abandoned some years ago, we can have half a point coalition between presidential votes and congressional votes.
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given that this is due party we could expect very large presidential coattails and if you look at the signs and the campaign signs in mexico, you typically see lopez obrador and one of the lower ticket candidates across the country. given that we can basically with a 50% vote for amlo, and meade that 15 and split with parsley can expect this is a floor. i think 50% share of seat majority for morena candidates, if not more. and the question is what happens with the opposition whether the pan and the pri hold on to the respective votes inside their own coalitions remains to be seen. but what will happen in the
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lower chamber of congress is about we will experience non-pri unified given for the first time since mexico became democratic, and that's actually a major shift in what we have been experiencing in the country. whether or not the coalition which is quite diverse holds on or not in hard times also remains to be seen, but that will be seen something to be looking for, the coalition for the president's party basically majority for the presidents coalition. and on the other hand, whether the pan which would be the largest or presumably the largest opposition party actually manages to hold them accountable depends on whether they themselves are not subject to internal warfare given their disaster results. and so this looks like a very different time the been seeing the last decade and a half, or
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two decades. for the upper chamber it's a little easier given the rules we just need to know which coalition comes in first or second in each state. there's not a definite result of their that basically we could just do some guesswork. we could think that amlo's coalition should come first in at least 29 states, then second place with mostly fall for the frente. basically would have assented that is even much more strongly controlled by the president or the future presidents coalition than the lower house with her again that pan has the potential to big opposition party, whether or not that becomes relevant or not remains to be seen. but there's another eye which is like to touch on other aspects
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that should make this a very important, i mean, to let us expect important changes. if you look at morena, the parties nomination methods, these are very often or at least not uncommon nomination rule. for single-member districts basically have the districts are selected randomly and appointed by the national party which is common in mexico. and then district parties, the party affiliate in each district, elects the other half of the single-member districts. but for the proportional representation list every third thing is basically nominated by the national party and the other two are elected by chance, bilaterally. basically every district sent ten names for national lottery, and two-thirds of the representation list come up
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randomly. the rationale for this is basically to avoid secular factionalism in the mexican left. they had been infighting since he became basically a a party,r so the parties. the question remains of what the expected behavior of these three types of basically the randomly selected party bases versus the national based appointees will look like. another thing that's important to keep in mind is that something that has been her touristic of mixing politics since 1934 has been single term limits, and those are off the books now. in 2014 they were surprisingly removed from our constitution, and now federal deputies can reelect up to four consecutive terms. senators up to two consecutive terms. they need to be renominated by
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the same party that elected them, sort of a party clause, and this actually kicks off the next midterm election pics of this would be the first slate of candidates that could if they're interested in, have a longer horizon in the legislative career by trying to cultivate their constituents and not just trying to get a new appointment for a new nomination next. so there's potentially huge change for all the big limits. just look at other democracies allow reelection, and latin america there's not all of them actually have day, some of them have big turnover rates. argentina perhaps has the least returning legislators since the democratic times, 50% approximately. brazil and chile 42 and 59 at this pace with the case with the united states where basically universal. you get more than three-fourths
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of encumbrance returning every congressional election. if we look at the 1920s very fast, mexico allowed reelection back then. and the rates of return actually didn't look too bad given they were not even democratic back then. but before the reform, 1934, close to brazil nowadays in the mexican chamber. whether that happens again for not remains to be seen but at least there should be something else to be looking at given in this new slate of legislators. i will skip these for the sake of time. so to wrap up, there's a major change in congress to be expected and this would be sort of the slide or incremental changes that we've been expensing over the past three or four decades. this was actually amount to a discrete jump.
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we are probably going to experience unified non-pri government for the first time. we will have very split opposition. a new party system is likely. i didn't have time to use that graph, but it would look at the vote share and the share of seats that three major parties that have one in less elections typically amounted to at least 80%. and that will no longer -- the pri, the pan combined are not even going to capture the 2% of the votes and seats and that is basically a change. we was it majority of two newcomers, morena and the evangelicals with a formerly french, i don't know what to expect party and probably new entrants will be on the rise. and reelection kicks in in the next round so this'll be altogether different at least
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potential set of events in mexico's congressional elections. thank you very much. >> inc. it so much, eric. [applause] >> -- thank you so much compared. >> the grand finale to look it was great having at the state level in these elections on sunday. joy, thank you for being here with us. i have admired to work for a long time, so delighted to have you presenting to us. >> thank you so much. right, well, i think all of our talks ongoing basically in the same direction, which is, you know, , when jorge opened it up, another historical election in mexico and they the have all bn historic since basically 1988 or 1994. because something new and different and interesting happens. and they were always elections that were leading to more
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democracy rather than less democracy more stability rather than less stability. and what i think is interesting in this 2018 election is that something is coming to an end, which is the mexican party system, and something, we don't know, this i think of something you pointed out just a few seconds ago, something is coming and we don't know what it is and we don't know if it's going to be good for democracy and stability or if it would be bad for democracy and stability. so let's get this show on the road. i'm going to talk today about state elections after, mexican government officials and mexican politicians love to change the electoral rules. so in fact, i don't know whether this this is a 2014 change or 28 -- 2000 h into when it happened but it was one of the later changes in which brought into line several of the state governorships which used to be
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staggered premixed equally across six-year presidential terms. now at least nine governorships are being held on the same day as the presidential election. why does this matter? it's cheaper. it may be slightly less interesting to mentor elections so this should bring up her participation which is a good thing in a market special in the new democracy. the problem, and it don't think honestly some of these party leaders thought of this at the time, when you hold gubernatorial elections at the same time as the presidential election, it may be that you have a good state candidate for your party that you have a terrible presidential candidate for your party. what this can mean is that you as an otherwise good candidate can lose the election because of
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presidential coattails, all right? this is what we may expect, obviously in gubernatorial elections, state party matters, state politics does matter a great deal. and so to candidates. what we see here is something new. this is morena. marino is both my colleagues have mentioned, morena is a relatively new party. it was formed by lopez obrador, amlo, from the dying embers as i like to call the prd. the prd was a unified and his wife so important unified left party. its formation in 1989 right after the 1980 elections. it survived as a unified left option into basically the creation of a new party under
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amlo that began like 2012, continued somewhat together in 2015 and finally separated. he finally left the party and took out this new label which is morena. so it's the party of regeneration. what you have here is this new party is about to win. these are the four states that will definitely win. if the polls are correct. sometimes that can be a big if in mexico but let's just assume these are correct. so we got the southern state, mexico city with almost 9 million voters. we have tabasco and we have more relevance. what is interesting about this is obviously in many of the states they used to be governed by one of the three big parties, right? on mexico city this was a prd, you know, bastion since it first had elections in 1997.
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mexico city with all those millions of voters and all that nice money became a prd bastion. that is no longer going to be the case. a very close amlo ally is going to win that election with very little difficulties. tabasco, tabasco was always being fought between the pri and prd. this is one of the southeastern states that jorge was talking about. where there with bipartisan news basically, with exceptions. and here what you have is finally the prd manages to win this election, the last election, 2012, under a former pri politician who became a prd politician. and he was a terrible governor. and this helps explain both in terms of corruption scandals and in terms of homicidal rates.
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just a very bad governor. what use is the morena candidate is going to win in this state. then you have morelos and this is perhaps the saddest story. this was a pan sort of bastion from 2000 on. this is where the pan could put any candidate it wants practically and that candidate would win. finally the prd wins of this. it's a very happy occasion for the prd. and again, bad government, a bad governor. and what happens, blanco, he was a football star for america which is like really, i don't know, maybe the dallas cowboys of the football team. blanco is going to be the future governor of a major state of the mexican republic.
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morelos is relatively small but a very important state in many ways. and why? because again you see something very similar. that pan didn't do a great job as governor. the prd didn't even worse job as governors and find which of is morena moving in and take advantage of bad government, and the lopez obrador name and this incredible power he has over voters. so here, now, and i think currently hold either nine or 11. there are 32 state governorships including mexico city. the handhold i think about nine right now which is very high number for the pan. however, of these nine governorships, it will lose probably all but one to three. so to are tied -- two are tied
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to biblical except one which has been since something like 1995 a pan bastion. but there were a lot of pan bastion back in 1995 and this is the only one that is still left. so it's lost, you know, a lot of states where it used to win, and it's the only one left. you know, this is sort of its only hope to outright win the state. this is not good for the pan. jalisco again, this is where the pan one in 1995 and it was a huge deal because jalisco is a big, rich state with a lot of voters, a lot of resources. so this was also a pan bastion into the last election held i think 2012, around then. and finally pri member to get back and he wasn't considered to be a terrible governor. however, for whatever reason
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that pan is basically out of the run in jalisco. the pri is far in second place, in second place that he can't win. and henrique will win the state which is a very small party. it's not quite as fringy as the pt but it's somewhat fringy. they're able to win one of the largest states in the republic. yucatán, this is one of the only states where the pri has a chance. it's not ten points ahead, seven points eight. it's sort locked into a one-jew battle with the pan. this is it. this is the one state -- one-jew
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these are all very large states about 5 million people. and the rest of them are sort of moderate states with about 2 million voters. what does this mean? this means that the pri is losing is voter base. this is a very difficult and dangerous position for the one hegemonic party, the party taking back in 2012 out of nowhere and just beat everyone. and now it is out of contention in these governorships were at once held sway. that pan could still win two more states, terry crews, pueblo, very large. it is locked in a battle with morena candidates. in fact, the morena party it
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also when two more states 50p on have the chips fall. this is interesting because a former pri and look, that name again. because it's his son running for office. against a morena candidate. so we will see how that comes out. puebla, martha is the wife of the former pan sort of government who was, in fact, himself a former -- these parties have start to lose the ability to attract new talent. and that there is something that is sort of very corrupt in the state of denmark for the state of mexico for the nation of mexico, which is where you are not holding in new talent here you are reusing old talent and in the case of mcgill, and old-time prd leader complex
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where this old-time corrupt good-natured politician, right? so he sees which way the weather is turning. he jumps to morena and is almost able to beat out the wife of the former governor, okay? all right, so what are the trends? these are a bunch of state and understand it's not too clear. let's talk about trends. basically it's bad for all the parties except for morena. however, morena, you can call the mexican party system through 2015 because i think it will change, as eric was talking about, basically was, it was a three party system with a bunch of little guys. and did it again a two-party system, to large parts, to median parties. the meeting parties being the prd and morena. and what could happen in terms
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of governorships which makes a huge difference also in terms of congressional election down the pike is it that morena is doing very well, and the three large traditional parties are doing very poorly. now, why would this matter for anything but the state elections? basically as i've argued in other work that i've done is that governors help their co-partisan candidates win elections. now, the best ones to do this are the united states have governors without a doubt that this is part of the job and accepted as such. i'm going to help my local deputies, my federal deputies and even my senators win their elections. because that's my job. i don't legally, semi legally or illegally, that's my job. now, the prd and the pan are not as good at it basically because of factual problems. but they still help their co-parties over all. what is going to happen when you
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don't have a governor to help you? what does that mean in terms of winning future elections, both state and federal level? it means it would be much more difficult for you to do so as a politician from one of those old traditional parties. so this is why it's going to matter dramatically have lower house in the senate comes out, no matter who wins the presidency. so i'm making an even stronger argument for the importance of the legislative elections. they matter for the future and they they're going to matter even more when the three major parties traditionally speaking lose many of the governorships. so it looks like everything is great for morena. the problem is morena is what is called in the trade a personal electoral vehicle, i.e., it's not really a party as such. something that amlo credit because he didn't like the rest
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of the prd and he wouldn't sort of giving his lead. so the question becomes, this is an important question towards the future, is what is going to happen when amlo is no longer politically active? we were speaking at much about whether he's healthy, about whether he's not so healthy, with his heart is going to hold out, et cetera, et cetera pick in the question is, there's no doubt that say he makes it perfectly well through the six years. however, he is going -- i don't keep their fingers crossed -- leave at the end of six years, and then what happens to this party that is winning all these governorships? what happens to the party who is expected to win half, 50% of the the lower house of congress, and even a greater percentage of the senate? will this party survive the exit from politics of its leader? you might say, well, you know,
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he won't leave politics after six years. what will he be, 72, 74? his ability to influence politics definitely goes down with age. just ask calderón and you will know that. so what do these results mean from the mexican party system? in terms of state populations i'm going to show you some data on that about how many voters are going to live under morena governors, pri governors, , and governors from these new election results. what we going to see is morena 202-748-8201 it well. in terms of -- the national electoral institute inc. is a quite a bit of public money for campaign-finance and for regular party activities. so the legal money for the federal elections of these and the national parties comes from -- how does it determine this money? as a result of the lower house
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of congress. so if you do poorly in the lower house of congress, the national party structure gets less money from the public institution which is a bad thing. next in terms of midterm elections with our spoken about that. this combines with reelection. what we don't know is what is good happened all these morena candidates? you have to be renominated by the same party because the politicians in mexico are geniuses at the no how to write stupid electoral rules. so just so the party still lose control over the candidates, we're going to force them to be renominated by the same party. that will probably break apart after several electoral cycles, but for now what you're going to see is a certain amount of power from all those morena candidates, just because of reelections. so really the morena, the governors elections being aligned with the presidential
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elections realign with amlo could never come at a worse time did because this will be the candidates were elected in 2008 will be able to stand for reelection in 2021. 2021. so this is what is such an odd sort of moment that the stars have aligned. so the next question is, we've asked a question about ammo and morena -- amlo and morena. .. >> 17 million voters but they almost lost that election. the question will be what will
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happen in that state midterm election which happened, i think, in a year and a half or two years. how can it survive if it loses its governor? in 2000 it did not fall apart as many expected it to. why? because held between 19 and one governorships, 19 and 21 states out of 32 including the largest state. what that meant was that one of the governors saw local and federal elections come up they help their candidates. this will no longer happen in at least, eight of the one states it held. so, now this is coming but let me you but i put up in 12 when i came to the center to give a talk but after the elections. this is what i said look at this this is a bad thing or -- this does work or sort of but look at the -- this is thousand and all
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five circumcisions this is multi- member districts so these are the different regions that he was talking about in his talk in the northwest which is wealth and they did okay but it did wellin the northeast even though the presidential candidate lost the still did well and then they did badly in the southeast with what mexico city used to be called in mexico state. then they do well everywhere except for mexico city because they ate all of that and literally the one know you are i'm sorry, no majority districts in these regions. each region holds about three-five states. it one, not a good majority seat in the lower house of congress
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in these two regions. then it only did wellin the fourth region which is where mexico city used to be or is. guess what now mexico city is no longer a pr d bastian so it will have to will happen to those districts that is able to win under the presidential candidate? it will disappear the prd as a party is on its way out. now, it is still being held up because it's an alliance at the presidential level and some governors, some states, however, this is a short-term alliance that there on opposite sides of the ideological spectrum and this is not a normal, natural alliance. this is an anti- alliance that has not done very well. to worry about the party as
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well. these are population gains. if marina is at the top and evidence below but not veracruz it will win 25 million new voters but the only sense that they will be living under a morena governor. if it wins the yucatán voters out of all these voters in this election cycle if the pan wins than 14 million and [inaudible] is hardly school at 8 million. i want to end up on a note here and if we don't have governors from major parties able to win elections anymore or fewer than normal what will happen to the mexican party system.
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one of the problems here is that a party system, despite the problems with actual parties and the party leadership, they have been able to maintain and it was over 90% of votes in seats up until 2015 and then it fell to 80 but if erica is correct and defaulted to 50% that is a huge drop-off in large party ownership over majority districts. so, who cares? why is a problem? i have a colleague is an economist and his all for choice and choices good but what are you choosing? are you choosing the pes candidate or choosing for the alliance. you know about the marina candidate, who knows? do you like the pt? who knows. a bunch of small parties that
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affect not represent ideologically speaking many voters. if their numbers rise and the traditional party numbers fall we could be looking at basical basically, i wouldn't say the collapse of the mexican party system, but a dramatic change in a weakening of the traditional parties. thank you very much. [applause] >> this will be a has your quote. think all three of you. i will pose the questions one to each of you and open it up to the audience. the first one is, could you talk about the undecided and is there a still significant number of voters who still have not voted and how you think that will pan out in that case. for joy, i was going to ask you what happened to -- i want to ask this question do you see it is likely that morena can win a
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majority of state legislator's by 2021 that is a key date and there will be a midterm election and they have said that he will not attempt any constitutional reforms because he will not be to get it because it does not have majority of state legislators will have it by then lastly, for you eric, dori talks about the end of the be and how you see the pre- behaving in congress with this greatly reduced position in the cms desertion from the parties as well adapted? >> good that you mentioned the undecided and there is a lot of debate in mexico about what it means not to answer the question about electoral preference and let's say that the proper term
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is people who do not declare an electoral preference and the media sometimes confuse these is undecided but the precise term is i cannot respond to these people and they do not answer the question and it becomes a black box that does not include people who say i have not made up my mind but we also have their people that say none of these candidates will not vote and i will vote in secret so when you look at the 20% who do not give us an answer to the electoral reference question i would say that about 8% of the electorate are undecided but the thing is many of them are
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undecided on many other issues and they don't give us an opinion about the party or the candidate and i would say this is people that unite us from the political systems and i would not expect that things would change because of these percentage of people that say they do not give us an answer but on the other hand we have other items in the polls. we ask if your made of or is it possible to change her electoral preference and we see about 30% of the electorate that is still uncertain at to have an electoral preference and when
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you look at the file of these people you see that they don't like the pri but they a torn between [inaudible] and [inaudible]. i don't see evidence that the figures that we have seen. >> before you answer, i'd like to say that although the phone keeps going off you can't hear it but i can so every phone has a silent button if you would like to use it. joy. >> you keep on yelling at them because i need to count one more thing. one, two, i got it. like a bunny i went and looked up the answer to your question and what is interesting here is that as go the governorships so go the majority in the state
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legislators. it's odd to have a governor and a pre- majority or have a plan governor and not have a plan majority in the state legislator almost always but not always if you have a strong governor you will also have a majority in your state assembly and this matters as documented because in order to hav change the constitn you need to send that piece of legislation not only through a super majority of the house in congress but also send it through a super majority in the state. the state legislators vote on that constitutional changing piece of legislation which would be very difficult for them to do because he would only have five or six states so he would not be able to unnecessarily get any sort of super majority. what would obviously matter
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whether governors would be able to negotiate or willing to negotiate with the lopez presidency. it may be forced from things that you would not change the constitution but what really matters here is whether you are willing to become, as i like to say, you know, he will not be another chavez in mexico will be another venezuela but mexico, you know, could potentially become another philippines. with weak parties and with very strong presidency. nothing that lopez is an authoritarian or autocrat but i'm basically saying if you have weaker parties you can expect stronger presidents. in the latin america case, that is a bad thing. to answer to your question i would say that no, i don't see any hope of morena winning
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anything close to a majority of state legislators in the short term. >> 2021. >> no, that's pretty short. >> thank you. just to make a counterpoint to what joy just said because you're asking about the behavior of the pri slate in congress and were talking here about the kings and queens of pragmatism, mostly kings i guess but basically being non- ideological and what will happen in the answer passes through joyce question because governors have been pivotal in their careers and what will happen with pri federal deputies and governors when mexico will be cash strapped coming out of the world
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economy slowed down and the end of nafta and whatever comes and they will be looked as having a hard time getting -- mexican governments and state governments are funded by the federation so you need to have good connections to get money for your state. it's not likely that these remnants of the pri will play their pragmatism and join morena so maybe that is will change what joy was saying and they may not have the majority collected from their own but they might inherit good pieces. >> questions from the audience. right here and in the audience. please introduce yourself. >> i have two questions to the panel topically they are unrelated but in relation to
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[inaudible] as they are trained to become diversify and become competitive in the american oil market what are the implications if and the second question is incidentally this is also timed with the turkish presidential elections and i am wondering if mexico can expect the same that's of voting irregularities that have been seen in other quote unquote democracies going up at the same time. >> thank you very much gentleman in the back. >> thank you. us cpa. i thank you for this presentation. two questions, as well. could someone please provide an
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illustration of what the typical voter turnout is in a presidential election in mexico and how and what the trends have looked like recently and how you think that might be putting out going into the future in general and the second question is if i understand correctly the new administration takes office on the first of december and could you provide some hint as to when one might anticipate seeing people identified for key positions in authority et cetera and how that might play out. >> excellent questions. do you have a third? >> my question is if he wins what conferences would be for the relationship between mexico and cuba and the region at large? >> thank you for would like to lead off? >> i will start with the turnout question. in the past presidential
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elections they have been between 58 and 66% if i am not wrong and we should expect enjoyed mentioned that there should be an increase and not because of concurrent elections and this is something that we did not mention but 30 out of the 32 states we have local elections on july 1st. in the past, 12 years ago, we had an increasing amount have a great not rate the rest of the country and [inaudible] something that it's very important to keep in mind that
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the electoral registration do not show any bias or present bias where is in the us you have minorities that are underrepresented in the electoral and in mexico part of the electoral histories that there was not partisan bias in the registration process so we do not see that many differences and because of turnout. this is going to be an election where a lot of people are going to turn out and i don't expect this to be a major explanation if things do not go as expected or as projected. in terms of irregularities i was just looking this morning at the party's representatives and they
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will have about 150,000 polling booths installed in mexico on july 1 and it seems that morena will have representatives at about 90% of those polling booths and numbers similar to the pri and at the same time that and in the prd will have a major presence in the polling booths this will be a closely watched election in terms of party representatives and also another thing to keep in mind is that are authorities at the polling booths and that is official that people who come the votes are randomly selected by the national electorate that's a guard against the possibility of fraud and the question about [inaudible] and
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what is the better one to answer it. >> [inaudible] >> i would like to answer the irregularity question. i think it's important to know that most of the irregularity will happen during the actual campaign, not what on voting day. why? because vote stealing, which is what pri used to do, in part, was a place by vote buying in large part. the vote buying is happening as we speak. [laughter] it has been going on for the last month, right? the vote buying is not one 100%
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effective and there are many problems for the parties as they try to buy people's notes and it's not a perfect system. it remains to be seen whether the vote buying be enough for certain state and certain state legislators et cetera. the second thing is in terms of irregularities it is very difficult for the electoral authority to actually physically check as the campaign goes on and how much illegal spending is being done. that makes it extremely difficult, you know, there was a study done by [inaudible] a couple years ago where they thought that each vote for what it officially cost was something on the order of two-three times more so that tells you and that
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is not even the presidency for the federal deputies. warmly, something that is often mentioned very much which is in various parts of various regions of mexico the drug organizations or criminal drug organizations have been active in making their preferences for certain candidates known and how do they do that -- by murdering them or trying to murder them. this is a real issue when you are speaking of delivered both the 20120 figure for longer period of time versus 45 where i think the actual campaign. or something like that so what that means is is that it's not those candidates were left alive in those districts those municipalities are necessarily both narco and it does not mean that at all what it means is it is not anti- cargo and or it
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could mean that they are on the right on the side that is strongest in the area. basically you know that much. i would argue that in terms of mexico to turkey i think it is a lot different. however, there is voting irregularity just not in the sense of stealing. >> i would like to take the cabinet question. there's a big difference or two big differences between the mexico in the us at least. first, there is five months. between the election and that may be a world record. [laughter] no, there are times where you can negotiate during that time and the other differences is that there is few cabinet post the need congressional
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confirmation so it basically can be appointed right off the that said, i think we should have a full cabinet on december 2nd or 3rd. that is basically how it worked in mexico. i have no idea of cuban, us what to expect that's not my area but on the irregularity side i would add one thing, lots and lots of vote buying going on but everyone participates in it. [inaudible] earlier elections have been stolen by fraud and there is basically no evidence of that all these dissipate and they and all each other. that's my take on it. >> a very brief on the -- telling mexican voters to accept the money and in exchange for buying the vote but then to go
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into the plea booth marks a choice to take a photograph of it at the av on it which will indicate that it has been -- you will have an idea of who is buying votes and it was a prophetic approach very briefly. i think we're likely to see freezing to the oil contracts not the ones issued but no new oil auctions there will be a focus on [inaudible] but he doesn't have money to internet so he eyes either does that and their limitations to that and there's a significant tinkering and potentially secondary legislation as well. i think we have -- oh, cuba, i don't think we have anyone but my response is i don't think he
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was particularly interested in foreign policy. i don't these particularly interested in the [inaudible] revolution. the people in his party who are and who spent time in venezuela and continue to associate but he refuses he refuses to reject the revolution it may be similar to that but ultimately he will be quite pragmatic. cuba can offer a lot to the left not so much to country like mexico the way i see it. couple of questions. yes, you have the gentleman here and the lady in the back. >> be as quick as possible because they running out of ti
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time. >> a few weeks ago we had here [inaudible] and he spoke about the risks of considering the result of the selection as inevitable she says all the peoples have obviously been saying or telling us for many months that he is to win but she said don't think about it as a done deal. she left a big? whether that was going to be the case. she discussed the issue of the undecided vote. jorge mentioned some of that but you think this is a done deal that he will for sure winning on sunday and there is no way around it? >> [inaudible]
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>> leasing -- last question from the back. >> i was wondering if the panel could address the pt and the pts and it look like they gave up quite a lot or morena gave up quite a lot of spaces in order to have this coalition so what kind of policies that they be looking at having to work on these two groups? >> three very quick answers. >> it is a done deal. i think that the chances of him losing the election are very
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slim. [inaudible] it is not likely that he will lose the election. >> i will take very complete the policy options of the pt and the ps. as i was saying the smaller parties are not known for their policy demands or their policy promises. these are not what you would call ideologically active parties. what they tend to be especially pt they tend to be parties that are created by the resource incentive and the monetary
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incentives that he gives to new parties and existing parties. these are not normally seen as policy powerhouses. they don't give many ideas. the only question is here is pes is a evangelical party and i honestly don't think mexico is a very evangelical country. is coming far less religious rather than more religious and i don't see a small party to do that in the near future. >> i would start with the smaller party positions and but there is one instance that raises more doubts and that is the green party that has been systematically aligned the pri
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over 15 years. if not more. curiously if they have not -- if you think of the german liberals they are a tiny party that aligns other parties intend to make policy systematically. they get to have [inaudible] and with the corporate government role and they had one governorship but that is it. they never demand more. not sure if the new parties will behave the same way and not play the policy game and basically get money or something. about the done deal i think we can be sure that the presidential rate is hard to turn around and there is more uncertainty about the other races but this is a very unlikely campaign in the mexican presentation where there is very little that can be changed from here to next sunday. >> on nafta, all i would say is
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if you read the statements of nafta he's moderated his position extraordinarily over the past few years and recognizes that nafta has been good for mexico but it needs to be improved and believes that at least in the statements he should be the one to implement and now, first, his dream situation would event that was wrapped up before came to office so having to negotiate it against the trump administration will be difficult and he has said that he will accept whatever the current negotiating team has negotiated up to this point but he respects the work they've done and keep the chief negotiator who is a recognized and respected economist. his for economy minister and a respected economist as well and left leaning but certainly orthodox. if i think we should expect the given he recognize is how did it
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is he would try to save nafta if you possibly could. >> pick you for being with us. [applause] [inaudible conversations] >> this week the c-span bus traveled to juneau, alaska is part of our 50 t-uppercase-letter were the help of our key partners gci. the press continues the trip across alaska by ferry to the
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city had of our stop in fairbanks. be sure to join us july 21 and the two will feature our visit to alaska. watch alaska weekend on a c-span, sees the .org or listen on the c-span radio app. >> the top is in south carolina this evening to campaign for governor the masters. the valley with trump and governor mcmaster in columbia south carolina is at 7:00 p.m. eastern and you can see that live on a companion network, c-span3 or c-span network. this afternoon here on c-span2 the u.s. senate coming into session at 3:00 o'clock eastern and senators will resume work on a study bill that covers energy and water projects, legislative branch,


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