tv Washington Journal Charlie Cook CSPAN July 24, 2018 1:48pm-2:16pm EDT
>> while we wait for the senate returned from a conversation by the 2018 midterm elections from "washington journal." >> we want to welcome back a longtime friend of the c-span upper comment the code a little report. evenen on this network for more than 30 years. >> i was onmo the first year c-span is on the year with brian lamb. it is always fun and important part of my career. that's why religiously come back whenever you ask.
>> host: we are glad to have you back. i would assert the 30,000-foot level. it is july, mid t july. and at this moment, what does it feel like? >> looks like in the house democrats used a net gain of 23 states. it can be inn the 20 to 35 seat range. a lot more likely than not that the house flips. but it mightom not. usually the dynamics in midterm elections start setting by midsummer. you know, we've never had it reversed course from this point on. but at the same time, the senate looks a lot more likely than not to stay in republican hands. republicans need to be worried about governors races and state legislative seats. people forget that three quarters of all of our governorships in for fifth of legislative seats will be up this year in november. given all the power that's gone
out to the states, that's a really big deal, too. everybody always says the upcoming election is most important since "moby dick" was a copy. this one is really important that the house on the line. this is a really big one. >> republicans have neil gorsuch on the supreme court of the brett kavanaugh nomination come a strong economy and the tax cuts. the democrats running clearly against president donald trump. message?is their >> if i were a democratic strategist i would want to make this election up or down on president trump. i would try to complicate things. i wouldn't introduce a lot of messaging. i think what was the slogan that democrats just unveiled this week? we the people i thought was kind of silly. they just got to keep this referendum up or down. to the extent they get specific on anything, they'd rather risk getting ammunition against them.
if i were them, but keep this as a referendum and if i were a republican, i would try to focus on what concrete things that happen on capitol hill and try tong localize it, try to individualize it and keep it away from being a referendum up or down on president trump. >> one of the space as republicans have targeted as florida. republican governor rick scott is taking the senate seat held by bill nelson into the sunshine state. here's a relatively new ad from the campaign taking aim at senator nelson and the democrats. >> while they toe the party line? nelson voted with hillary clinton 89% pure but obama 90%. democrat presidents have nominated 700 judges and nelson never posed a single one. not one. nelson a big party bosses every time. now opposing the president's choice before it's been made. you can't get more party line did not. bill nelson, party affairs.
>> i approve this message. >> let's look at the florida senate race. >> i think is one of the best two, three or four senate races. one of the mostt competitive god rick scott, the governor meets all the tags of what is the top-level challenger. statewide name recognition at the beginning of the race. statewide organization at the beginning of theon race. all the money he could possibly need and he is one tough statewide competitive general elections before. this is going to be a marquee race this year in a state that president trump one but i only appoint. it's about as purple as it is you get. >> was turned to nevada. one of the states democrats hope to pick up good food in common is seeking a second term and now i'm here in the silver state. >> i'm jacky rosen i approve this message. >> we call them senator steinman
advance of the political wind. first promising to vote against the plan to repeal obamacare because of it heard about it. >> dean heller from nevada is a no. >> i'm telling you right now i cannot support [inaudible] hundreds of thousands of nevadans. >> the dean heller got pressure from his party leaders. >> the trent lott and clear. >> dean heller broke his promise of voted for repeal. >> mr. heller, mr. heller. >> does a complete 180. >> the plan he voted to advance the charge people over 50, up to five times more than younger people and and protections for preexisting conditions. dean heller is not standing up for nevada. >> charlie cook, the democratic ad says that the race. >> only nine seats up this year
in only threenl of them are in serious jeopardy in dean heller is the only republican incumbent in real jeopardy. this is again in a handful of the closest races in the country. it could be very, veryry close. color does not have a really strong personality. so there aren't a lot of people that would walk on hot coals for them. he is one of these, like a lot of members we know that this is going to be a party vote, this much or more than anything else. >> look at tennessee. it's an interesting race where you have the republican nominee, open sea with bob corker leaving after two terms in a former democratic governor who at the moment is ahead of the polls this is a state the republicans have thought they are goingat to keep. >> tennessee is a state if you said what is the generic republican do, what is a generic do. democrats are getting this
former two-term governor. they got a far better -- he's probably the only leading democrat in the state that could win. ubd on the republican side, marsha blackburn will be the republican nominee and she's got a very strong personality, a polarizing person so that she might have a tougher time were joe or jane generic republicans. that's what makes this race so close in one of the premier races. >> nancy pelosi is running in her congressional district, but she is on the ballot literally or figuratively and a lot of key races. is she a help or hindrance? >> i think and i don't want this to sound disrespectful in any way to nancy pelosi, that if she announced today that she was resigned from congress, there would probably be people jumping out of windows at the national republican congressional
committee because they don't really have hillary clinton anymore. they don't have president obama to be up anymore. nancy pelosi is a. it is like one of their own eras in their quiver against democrats. it will work in some places come a few places. worked in the church special election last year. but she is not nearly as big a demon for republicans as clinton and josé -- as clinton and president obama were. i can see democrats getting to 218 seats in this election. it's a little harder to see where this nancy pelosi get 218 votes for his beaker if democrats win a majority. and it is not animosity towards her personally, but just sort of a generational change. the biggest argument for
policies surviving this is there isn't a single or two really strong contenders to you can point to and say that person. >> let's look at the rnc in an arkansas and how this has been playing out in a congressional race. from the rnc has the republican party does take game at the former house speaker, not democratic leader in the house of representatives, nancy pelosi. >> nancy pelosi, right now i guess we can call her the incoming speaker of the house of representatives. >> you would like to cancel -- >> the second part is accurate. >> the economy has been losing
jobs for months. >> we will raise taxes. >> critics call it a regulation tsunami. >> the confidence the economy sink to new lows. >> the markett is to abolish ic. a growing call for democrats. get rid of the agency. >> u.s. military has significantly changed and not for the better. >> similar mismanagement in the veterans benefits administration. >> but versatile cuts announced by the u.s. army. >> at the latest in a series of downsizing moves. >> what they represent and perhaps senator sanders and i do think that is the future. >> the crimes that they are giving is so pathetic. it is like giving you a bowl of doggy do with the cherry on top. >> that rnc artifact is? >> in some districts that will be. this is an election that is largely a halt in suburban
america. it is unlike the senate races that will be fought in red state smalltime earl america largely. this is a suburban district. in some places it will be a fact is. >> when i share this with her audience. the latest in-house ratings in terms that those that are democraticat concepts, only to come and those that are republican concepts 25. one of the races you are keeping an eye on is an arkansas and this is an ad now on the air which focuses on house democratic leader nancy pelosi. ..
if i win i will not vote for nancy f pelosi tried with this headline has pictures of those individuals. >> guest: it's something come and get i don't think it's personal torture but a lot of it is generational, some political survival. it's out there. i and this year there are 435 seats, we basically know who's going to win in like 335 of them. there are 100 we're watching, and of of those about 60 that are competitive. when you have a midterm election with a president with low approval ratings, they don't knock off many seats on the
other side and that explains why there are so few democratic seats in jeopardy, is when you sort of wins going one way, it's hard to go against the strength. largely, the competitive races are most not going to be in the deep south. arkansas which is basically larocque is one of the few against hill. that's one of the few deep south republican districts that are in danger but it's basically right in an immediate around little rock. it's not a small-town rural district. republicans have to even worry, even in the deep south because and barack obama in capped the republican party together in the south and the absence of that allows democrats to run war under their own flag a little bit. with charlieing l
cook. a bellwether of whathe respect. bob is on the phone, republican light. good morning. >> caller: good morning, steve. hello, c-span. that morning, charlie cook. you're looking good. i gotot a question about the maxine water race. getting different accounts and like some people say she doesn't live in her district. some say they do but if she doesn't live in her district how can she run? is or anything anybody can do about it? >> guest: thank you, bob here i have no earthly idea whether maxine waters lives in her congressional district or not. but for the u.s. house of representatives, there's no legalfo requirement anywhere to live in your district. you need to live in your state but there is no legal requirement. there are very few things that we are sure of any life that
taxes -- two of them, democrats don't lose districts that are as overwhelming as hers is and she has no raise. but living in a district that's not a legal requirement in any way. it could be a political hit. we've seen members in competitive districts lose because they had anus apartment that they rarely wentre to backn the district, but that was political not legal and not in a district as overwhelmingly democratic as this one. >> host:ic from norwich new york carroll on the democrat's line. >> caller: good morning. i have two questions. the first one is about new york 22, the race between claudia and anthony. i wondered how you would handicap it, and any other thing you'd like to say about that district. my second question is about a relatively new book by alan
abramowitz called the great realignment about race, party and transformation of the party system with the rise of trump. i wonder what he thought of that book. thank you very much. >> guest: alan abramowitz is a friend of mine, a terrific political scientist and died hi. book on my bed stand and it is waiting to be reads as soon asi finish john mccain's book which i mostlyhe through. the answer to other question i was david wasserman our editor with you because he's a guy who is our grantor expert. new york 22, central upstate new york, utica, binghamton. the republican incumbent claudia, this is a district in the present election votes 6.
more than a republican. in a level playing field democrats might have just but it would be pretty uphill. in a year when republicans have some headwinds in the democrats had some tailwinds as appears now, this is one that is in play and omit this race rated as asa tossup, which means it's one of the top, iton would be one of te 30 asked chances democrats have of knock it off a republican seat. so this is a top tier democratic challenge, let me turn to another race, new york 21. one of the youngest republicans, female candidates to be elected in the house of representatives and you have listed as solid republican. >> guest: that's why you can't go just hard and fast by the numbers. ine this case it's a slightly
less republican district and in that 22nd. in the 22nd, the one to call asked about, democrats have top-tier really, really, really good challenger. democrats don't have good challenger particularly against her and we haven't rated as solid. this would be, she's not going to lose, let's just put it that way. >> host: in pennsylvania the first congressional district, brian fitzpatrick, , a republicn and you havet, listed as lean republican but it's been getting some attention. this is one of those races to watch that could determine iswhether not the republicans kp or lose the house of representatives. why? >> guest: this is a suburban district, new hope, around there. if democrats win a majority,
it's going to be through suburban districts like bucks county whichrb is one of my family, box, delaware, chester county, one of the four suburban counties around philadelphia. >> host: that ring around the city thank you right. these of the districts that democrats have to win to get a majority and this is one of the most vulnerable but it's in the second tier. on election night i would watch new jersey and pennsylvania. new jersey pennsylvania virginia would be the three states early on election night where you'll see results coming in what you'll get a sense are democrats like to get 23 or more or come up short. this would be one of those races that i would look at. >> host: virginia ten is one ofoo those. >> guest: margaret, next door. she's considerably more vulnerable really been congressman fitzpatrick.
she's on, you know, not toast but she's got a really, really challenging situation. >> host: let's get to bread in international falls minnesota. thank you for waiting. good morning. >> caller: good morning to both of you today. we're talking about this midterm election and whatnot, but the senate pretty well will have between 59-61 republicans, pretty solid. and then on the house side -- >> host: let me interrupt. right now there are 51. >> caller: well, because like you say, there's only nine republican on ballot and basically the other remaining of the 33 are democrats. they are going to lose about half of those, and then on the house side, there's going toou e about 235-240 republicans. so here's the real, the point
being on all this is that the reason why the democratic party is in w the position they are is that they don't have anybody running. the only way somebody is going to take over the party, and they have a chance, is they have to kick out the media. >> host: how do you view his assessment? >> guest: i have all the respect i come in the world for you and for your opinion, but i will tell you that i have not met a single republican official or strategist or consultant that shows your degree of optimism for republicans this year. you know, a hugely successful, yes, there are only nine republican seats up. threeer of them are in grave danger, at least one or two of them republicans are behind right now. yeah, democrats have four, five,
six races to got to really, rey worry about. five are in states that trump won by 19.2 more that doesn't include florida. if i did that on the single most, if i did that the single most likely scenarioo in this election it would be zero net change, that we go in 5149, 51-49. von braun it's a lot more likely that republicans either gain one seat or the have a net loss of one seat. you sort of -- but a five this year for republicans would be at the picked up three seats. okay, four, let's go wild and crazy but nowhere near the 58, 59 seats. again, i've not met a single republican officials that thought that was in the realm of possibility. >> host: let's go to california on the democrat's line. steve, good morning. >> caller: good morning from
theer golden state charlie, i bn watching you for years on c-span. i'ms so happy that for whatever reason he lost a lot of weight. i always worried about you. i love your political -- >> guest: having a cardiologist scare the hell out of you would do that for you. it's for the good but thank you. appreciate it. >> caller: yes. i'm calling about, i'm a native san francisco. i live 60 miles east in the town of dr. phil but i had at most -- vacaville -- for nancy pelosi but it sidebar to pass the torch on. she is so polarizing. she was a great fundraiser. i know she's from baltimore. i just know a a little bit abot her through the years, paying attention to politics, but she's too polarizing. i'm asking my labor democrats, and are talking to teens or retiree that marched and organize labor parades in dixon california,ed vacaville califora
getting the labor message out. i have a lot of my friends, at least 50% of my teamster buddies who stood on picket lines for 27 weeks during my 32 with lucky supermarkets. 50% of them voted for trump. they held their nose but they just couldn't vote for hillary. and i love hillary. she was the most experienced candidate that democrats have had for years to take the office with all of her experience. i voted for her but i sent bernie sanders money because wanting to wake up the call and keep kids, , the youth, and he did. all i'm asking for errors the democrats to come back home. this midterm is so important and just one last point. to my fellow democrats, if we don't have a majority in the house, we don't set the agenda. the chairman of each committee
set the agenda to get topics on everything you watch on c-span. it's been controlled by the republicans. they bring everything up. if we do not have enough democrats to chair the committee's, the partyty is ove, thank you. a lot of the table. your response? >> guest: state, i think democrats owe nancy pelosi and enormous debt of gratitude, to be honest. i don't think there is a congressional leader in the history that is raise money over the years as much money as nancy pelosi has. having said that, i think there are a fair number of, there are a lot of, there are a decent number of sitting democratic members and whole lot of candidates felt like her a lot and respect are a lot and are enormously grateful for everything that she said said and done for the party. but who think it's time to move on.
that's the sort of growing sentiment that is out there and say that with no malice to her whatsoever, but this is now getting to be a pretty loud noise out there. and again, the only thing that's pushing back isng there's not oe or twoe alternatives that look really, really strong that would we could- say that could beat r 101. there's been a lot of rising sort in the democratic party over the years that if, as he left the house. they retired or been elected to thin or whatever. there is not one or two. they have some people that a real rising stars may be, maybe it's that time, maybe it's a few years away from the time. i'll make a prediction. congressman joe kennedy, this guy is going to be a star. i mean, he is going to be a president, vice president or a lead in congress one of these days.
but he's still relatively calm he still fairly young and has a very young family and so i do know he's ready to move, ready personally to move up. the groundswell for democrats change it's getting pretty loud and again i don't say that as a criticism of her. it's just a reflection of the bible picking up when we talk to and the candidates trim we welcome our c-span radio audience. our guess is charlie cook -- >> we are going to leave this and take your life back to the senate working on a package of spending bills, five including the department of treasury, and transportation and housing and urban development. tax assistance program better known as vita by $5,000,000 for the next fiscal year. building upon the success of the tax cut and jobs act, it's important that we take additional steps to ensure that neva f