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tv   Global Business Dialogue Discussion on U.S.- China Trade Relations  CSPAN2  December 21, 2018 10:15pm-11:43pm EST

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chairman have term limits. all the way back, what happened was, we took a strong german system and we turned it into a strong speaker and minority leader system. >> watch conversations with retiring members of the congress. saturday 8:00 p.m. eastern on c-span and c-span. listen with a free c-span radio app. >> trade medicines from australia, new zealand and japan, talk about the u.s., china trade relationship at an event in washington d.c. the discussion focused on how trade disputes affect the entire pacific region. ninety minute discussion was hosted by the global business dialogue. >> will be underway. about as close to on time as we've ever done. good morning. good day.
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thank you all for coming. i'm with the global business dialogue. it's a pleasure to our commute here. at the heart of this morning, for a minute, let's bring a few thoughts first. it's same after the two-faced god, looks both ways, forward and backwards. really though, that's a better description of december then it is of january. but as somebody first, you are seeing that, bring about next your, but when january 2 comes around, it's just fully hard charging towards making the first quarter of 2019, as good as can possibly be. that will be especially true in trade this year when we have a march deadline for the u.s. china talks, current ones.
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the first we have the ruling of 29th of march. it's december in which we get to pause for a moment. and look both ways. hanukkah has just passed, known as the season of white's festival. but judging from all the christmas tree lights around arlington, i would say that the whole business of lights is interdenominational. it's a reflection. my short time at the microphone here, i like to reflect a little bit on three things. first, the globalists, global i look. global. the concern for 19 years now, which is not particularly impressive but it's amazing to me. it was founded in the belief that trade policies important and worth talking about. if economic activity is trade policy, and conversation is real
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in which it should be shaped. press, nothing symbolizes conversation more than a hot drink and given its special history in trade, a few years particularly apt and so that's why our global is a teapot with the globe. you can do things like this without a lot of help, you can't take everything today but two of our sponsored members represented here and i like to mention them. johnson and cunningham. another is monitor, nobody like p.m. the founder of the company couldn't be with us but he is represented by a young associate. of course, every member helps. every member contributes and we are grateful to all of them. about diplomacy. all of our speakers this morning are diplomats.
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they may not have the title but they too are diplomats. whenever i think about diplomacy, i think about ellen who was ambassador to the united states back in the 1980s when the canada u.s. free trade agreement was being negotiated. before he left, he gave marvelous farewell. he was saying that old diplomacy, the kind where countries made their views known through the state department, was over. today, diplomats particularly in washington had to be engaged with everyone. the engagement is not easy. it takes a lot of courage and a lot of work. i'm very grateful to each of this morning's speakers for making the effort here. trade policy has its invisible
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hand component. each representation of a countries use, reaches the global commons to understanding. i want to be flip here but i did see bill laying in the audience. when bill was with cat in the 80s, u.s. a vigorous advocate for the canada u.s. free trade agreement. once he was giving a talk to farmers in pennsylvania and he referenced the famous playing field. he said, the point he said, is not to level the playing field, it's to fertilize it. but that's him. finally, the subject difference. heavily on memberships but is also relies on friends and friendships. these last years, thorton and her husband, have been incredibly helpful. very good friends.
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and for over a decade, it was a in the rich soil. another good friend, is the managing director. and he knows her well. at least for him. it's my good fortune but he will be your guide the rest of this morning's program. andy, you are up. i was going to suggest that you give your initial here. >> thank you, judge. good morning to everyone to the last dbt program of the year. i'm just here to monitor. get on with moderation. the first speaker is elizabeth who is been here with counselor with the australian embassy since july 2016. we were chatting just a few minutes ago and she thought when she came in her focus was going
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to be implementation. it's a little different but it certainly been interesting. with that, elizabeth. >> thank you very much. thank you very much, judges for the welcoming words. he's one of the first people i met in d.c. when i arrived to a half years ago. with had a good relationship and friendship ever since. i'm quite delighted to be speaking here today and seeing so many good friends and colleagues here. i come up first because australia has a relatively unique perspective on trade relations to economic giants, u.s. and china. as so many countries in the pacific region, china is by far our latest, largest trading partner.
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overall, the u.s. is our largest economic partner. both of our relationships are depending on free trade agreements. which is also something of a rarity. given the countries. i thought i'd give a quick overview, comparative overview of perspective trade in relationship. with each of these giants, starting with the united states. to a trade, it's currently valued at about $68 billion. the u.s. enjoys a trade of approximately 20 to nine million dollars. it's really a major primarily agricultural commodities, it's imports from the u.s. industrialized products. the investment relationship is quite significant and is valued at 1 trillion u.s. dollars. china is australia's largest trading partner.
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it accounts for nearly 30% of australia's experts. in fact, our bilateral to a trade shows record of 200 billion australian dollars in the fiscal year 2017, 2018. that's about 140 the u.s. dollars and it's more than double the to a trading relationship that we enjoy with the united states. of this, australia's exports to china accounted for approximately 123 billion dollars. in goods and services, about 86 billion u.s. that means australia has it with china. about $50 sextillion. our trade with china is primarily resources and agriculture. call are featured heavily. we also have expanding exports particularly in education and
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services and tourism. by contrast with united states, to investments is much more limited between china and australia. it has grown at an negligible base in the last ten years. lateral investment is valued at about $20 billion. with u.s., it's $1 trillion. australia is a trading nation and we are proud of it. australia, along with the u.s., the founding member of the general agreement on trade and organization of the eto. in pacific provides particular focus for economic trade and investment relations. the pacific region is trading partners. we have negotiated from the fda, seven of the partners. the u.s. security power, the
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closest of security. we have shared the pursuit of opening, in support of peace and economic growth around the world. we international trade parts into thousand five, with the entry into force of the australia u.s. trade agreement. under the agreement, all goods, quarter free. president on the visit to australia last year, discarded as a model fta. the china australia fta is much younger. it's approaching its thirst anniversary. after ten years of negotiation. beyond tariff outcomes, services market have secured commitments that trading companies from the requirement to enter into commercial partnership with china business in certain
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sectors. these agreements have been beneficial for all countries, australia, the united states and china. both sets of agreements have growth and investments. beyond this, these agreements have stability and predictability in our trading relationships. with dialogue. it suggests by 2030, asia will be the home of about 3.5 million the middle class. australia economy will complement those of a growing asian. demands for mineral and energy continue there will be significant opportunities for regional economies with services and agricultural products. aside central great agreements with china, one of the agreement we have in southeast asia that
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will support increased to a trade and investments. in our region, we are also looking at a very important on december 30 and that would be the entry in the tbt 11. it will provide sophisticated regional coveralls to facilitate trade in the region. we're not standing still. we're negotiating regional comprehensive ownership together with china. we are in negotiation with as well. we have recently concluded negotiation from bilateral agreements with indonesia and hong kong. we have just negotiations with our biggest trading partner, the eu. while these agreements are out, bilateral and regional economic relationship, the our like the wto rules. the rules that are in bodied in
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the wto provide the foundation for the trading relationships. including the biggest participants in the system. the u.s. and china. as the trading nation, a functioning wto is fundamental importance to australia's interest. wt0 limits unfair trade restrictions to provide stability in national trade. this is economic growth, job creation and improvement. in this context, we view china's wto as a positive. a framework upon which we have built in our bilateral fta trade relation. china economic transmission, probably succession to the wto has lifted millions out of poverty and economic transformation in one sector australia's 28 years of an
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interrupted economic growth. as much as we increasingly rely on fta, trading relationships, the wto means fundamental importance. to deal with issues of inherently connecting nature. this includes subsidies and support. ...
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>> between the two countries that is nondiscriminatory and is consistent with the wto rules with the global trading system it would also be good for us and china as the
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smaller trade exposed nation i have highlighted the way to australia places on the global trading system including the wto. we have systemic interest of our old rules we also want to see all members commit to allow to foreign participation of his many areas of the economy as possible that is g 20 members have recognized the wto is in need of reform improvement such as transparency and notification procedures will also assist in strengthening the framework for the trade relations that are not subject to any preferential trade agreement and that will strengthen as a whole that is why to cosponsor
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the us transparency initiative of the wto we have seen positive areas as just a few days ago with china domestic support notification 20112016 the same conclusion we are very clear about the challenges that lie ahead in their significant it will be a heavy lift for both countries that the us and china are to reach an agreement that tariffs are lowered on both sides whatever the nature as an agreement or arrangement will have impacts for the global trading system as a whole. while we want to see that agreement come to fruition, we are not sitting idly on the sidelines. we will have our own trade agenda in some areas the grass
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continues to grow thank you. [applause] >> that was terrific so now please join me to welcome the minister counselor with the japanese embassy and will brief us on what japan has been doing the past few years. >> good morning. so talking about the difference of us china getting into their disputes and the defense policy of trade for
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the future next year so it is a fact the largest economy in the world with china and the largest trading partners affects the japanese economy but conducted through research the number of japanese companies were almost up one
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third so concerned about the prospects of exports from china chinese demand will soar. it is important for the united states and china to solve this dialogue from those oriented policies and practices that includes property theft and
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trade distorting industries. and distortion. that is why we are watching closely and with the united states and the japan and eu are also promoting the discussions of e-commerce and of those elements of that joint statement through president trump and in that
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joint sentiment both issued in september so just before the dinner meeting and president xi on december 1st the prime minister met with president trump and pointed out it is important for china to take those measures and as i have mentioned before which is now the focus of china and the united states japan is
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supposed to have their own trading system and to accept any type of trade has to be consistent so although it is necessary to scrutinize each measure to have questions of consistency with the wto so in effect i have to say with the 150 billion years and it is credible with that global economy but again we hope that discussion between the us and
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china will lead to fruition in communicating with both the united states and china going forward and finally i will briefly touch upon the conversation i am grateful and excited to see with the tpp and also with japan on februaryt next year if the eu will make a commission tomorrow.
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but for her japan and united states agreement and those other key areas but technically speaking but with those negotiations but now it has shifted to congress that is also required by the tpa process so such progress made
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and we determine thank you. [applause] >> thank you very much so now i am pleased tammy can join us and has spent 20 y-letter in years based is soul and another eight years after that working as head of the asian division of the us chamber i think she can help bring the perspective of american companies and the private sector to match up what we are hearing from the speakers representing their government.
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>> thank you for inviting me the conversations like we are having today have never been more important we have a saying in the trade world that if you are standing still you are falling behind and from my perspective nowhere is that more evident than asia, to offer a huge congratulations to my friends on the dais from australia and japan and new zealand for their hard work and leadership and the success they are about to enjoy 11 days from now on decembe decembh when the tpp 11 enters into force and then a few days later vietnam will join that esteemed group i don't think
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many americans realize that that means to us american farmers and ranchers and employees are about to be significantly competitively disadvantaged in some pretty important markets. particularly japan. american wheat farmers are about to take significant hits since australia and canadian wheat farmers, the biggest competitors in the japanese market are about to get preferential access over american wheat farmers. and i should note america was a pretty big proponent of the high standard comprehensive rules that it now has and in my view it is terribly unfortunate are ranchers and
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farmers will not see the benefits so the us wheat and national association of wheat growers said after japan ratified tpp 11 if nothing changes before the schedule is fully implemented us wheat farmers and the grain trade will essentially be writing a 550 million-dollar check every year to their australian and canadian competitors. some of the tariffs to go to zero immediately 11 days from now while others will be eliminated or reduced over a number of years for example japan will eliminate all tariffs it will go to zero on 32 percent of agriculture immediately 9 percent will
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still have some tariffs but at a preferential rate the remaining 59 percent will be eliminated over 20 year years. i should note that is for the countries that are in the cp p-letter those will not come to american farmers or ranchers or employees but they will go to those countries who showed courage and vision in addition on february 1st next year the eu japan partnership agreement will likely enter into force is serving our friends in brussels vote as everyone expects. so american farmers ranchers and employees, i will
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-underscore we are about to be significantly, competitively disadvantaged in the fastest-growing part of the world. does anybody doubt what i think about this issue i want to make sure that i'm clear that americans are about to be significantly and competitively disadvantaged also there are other agreements happening in asia as my call a mentioned the original comprehensive economic partnership with australia and new zealand and korea china and india a huge economic collection of countries moving forward i admire your optimism it would be concluded next year but as i helped to draft the delay grade year after year after year and we are expecting significant conclusion this year becoming very good
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friends with my thesaurus i wish you the best of luck. [laughter] but it is moving forward but whether it concludes next year or not the important thing is they are moving and negotiating to open new markets for their farmers and ranchers. letter other countries doing right now? korea, they have free trade agreements with almost everyone in the comprehensive partnership. with all 11 except mexico and japan. so korea is seriously looking at joining tpp.
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there are some political issues but they are watching very closely nobody wants their country at a competitive disadvantage. who will be the biggest beneficiary? frankly i think vietnam and malaysia that are well positioned to geographicall geographically, lower wage rates, improve infrastructure and high standard standards, comprehensive policies and rule of law and they could have a high level of predictability in those markets and most importantly they are opening their markets for their own competitive reasons when the us and korea
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first negotiated many people asked why does korea want to do this? they had to make significant changes at rewrite a lot of their lies and open things up and had to fertilize the playing field trip i will steal your line. why? because they live in a tough neighborhood and they knew for their future competitiveness they needed to open up and that liberalization was the best way so countries like vietnam and malaysia are following the same path from my perspective one of the coolest things about tpp is that you have fully developed economies and some are still
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building they will get some extra phase out and transition time to help them get to that standard but it really is a race to the top. i have huge respect for those governments who had the vision and the courage to do this. and to those governments that on day number three the new administration without any serious consideration decided to withdraw america from tpp it will go down in history as one of the biggest economic mistakes made in my lifetime. i will stop there we went to get to your questions. you are a great audience. i am here all week. [laughter] [applause]
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>> thank you. that was a little understated maybe we can draw you out in the questions. [laughter] so our last speaker from new zealand is the trade and economic counselor and more importantly i suspect one of his last appearances as he goes back to capital next month. >> thank you very much for inviting me it's great to be here just to acknowledge the other members of the panel my embassy colleagues and one of my oldest washington
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colleagues the oldest relationship. the last time i spoke here was 2016 was quite a different time but there are some similarities but also with a heavily australian oriented program and now i see that the time has given me some political background with seniority in the system gave me a lot of political cover progress so i could agree with everything that you said but not using the words that you used.
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maybe you can see australia but that gives me cover. [laughter] i don't know if i can fool the people at home but nonetheless with that valedictory nature so i don't have the right to do that but i was looking over the time from the environment from 2016 but new zealand is
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exactly the same it was in the middle of 2016 that the rules would be written and from new zealand it could be imperative but more importantly, there has to be rules and more concerning this big discussion at the time with tpp and the reality it is imperative of the architecture for a country like new zealand with
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5 million people that is where we are dealing with every country bilaterally. so people have talked about the tpp coming into force so if you go back to 2017 just after the trump administration withdrew. but this is the point from that tariff liberalization and then to remove the barriers but i don't want to reject the
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premise of this event that the approach to the reaction isn't just to be us and china what we see coming down at us with the common nature with very small scale. >> so we have a couple so we have a series of things wrong but not just because of the us and china are having a scrap but the nature of our economy.
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but more generally trade restrictive and increasing disruption and growth of trade as a percent of gdp and that's what we try to do. this is a different way to put that but clearly when us and china with the number one trading partner it is in the primary impact and then you
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see them affected by tariffs. more importantly you see the prospect with the disruption and when you see both countries celebrating the other with the economic hardships and the idea it isn't the case of one country winning or losing you will see that across the world. and with the trading partner and with a globalized world and the final thing and how
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you would relate us and china without chicken and egg kind of argument know where the concerns are going not just us and china that then to remember the wto but the rules we are operating under so this is a big driver why you have tpp to deal with the new
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economy and a lot of those rules are shared. and so we do see a big problem from growing subsidies and the only way to deal with us but at some point we need to come back to negotiate properly and not going through that now a lot of things need to be done before that can happen but not just because we need new rules but just the sheer of holding it together because contrary to what they say they can make you change your rules but that is with the wto to outweigh the cost.
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so we need to be negotiating and making clear so let me just finish. and then with trade agreements and then to negotiate with the eu with 53 percent of merchandise exports cover now and then to be with the international public organizations and between 2021
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and then to engage and engineer with those approaches. and then with those trade negotiation with environmental reasons and with that strategy to do with those barriers and on the agriculture side have a strong history with those barriers to do with those that
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you face the same issues and new zealand that is a bit surprising to people and to realize and then to make sure the benefits of trade go across the economy. but that would be a big focus going forward but i will leave it there. think you. [applause]
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>> now i will take the moderators prerogative. if we go back to january 2017 which seems a lot longer than less than two years ago but there was a feeling here at least with that driving force will come from. that was the theme for the first year and now as we reach into a series of actions the resurrection of the tpp that
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more it is that they will push for liberalization so i would love to hear your thoughts. >> thank you very much and to be frank as written response to the us china trade tension. with the most dynamic region in the world. and the wto that the rules need to be updated for the 21st century and we still see
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inherent value that is the principal driver. it helped us to have that framework and also that economic integration with the most dynamic region in the world. >> that with tpp and these issues and the issue never came up between us and china to be in the discussion of those issues.
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>> with the tpp we should point out even though the united states government withdrew the companies that operate in those jurisdictions will still benefit that's good news for them but bad for the ranchers that will not benefit. and then and then to have that architecture but what we are
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driving the way you look at this and with that original agreement but the experience especially in asia with the regular meetings of the committee's and dealing with different systems to get into the structure to have a chance to sit down. >> now we will turn it over to the audience.
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>> the us has taken the stance the wto is not built to handle the system. but given the premise is that through a vehicle like tpp and how the countries play a role and is that not welcomed by the trump administration cracks with the updates to the
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wto rules and the tpp originally was envisioned and the chinese are very critical and then to continue that we want you to be aware of it and then again is to the top there
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was a meeting in bali a few years ago and then to join tpp in a few years and the trump administration with us-japan on the market economy over to see that expanded to other countries and then our kiwi friends share the same concerns about the enterprises
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and the list goes on. i would love to develop into a coalition to deal with the nonmarket economy issues. i will stop there. >> it is true some of these issues they have those trading relationships so there is that framework based on that. may not be the us and china agree over the ten years to negotiate but certainly there is a framework upon which both countries can draw for accommodations and just to the
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point looking forward to see the outcome of the trilateral process if that can translate into a broader coalition in those with japan and singapore. >>. >> with international trade today with the current administration does not have that kind of patients what if
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there is a victory declared sometime within the next six months. and do you feel in terms of the tariffs so china use comprehensive free-trade agreements but to step back from that escalation of the
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three months 90 days is ambitious with the globalization agendas and that is something involving very much. mentioning the need for wto reform so how optimistic you are and how quickly can that happen cracks and with behind
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the pillar but to be an optimist and then we are trying to provide current ideas and it's just impossible to evaluate possible timeframe this is a discussion happening in real-time but i cannot give you time frame.
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>> we will put that on the to do list for 2019. with the rules on the trade conflicts that there really are trade winners and since from the very beginning of july those exports to china have trended downward mainly because of soybeans and those
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a try to get ahead of the tariffs they call that a pre- by. so have you seen the exports to china go up or go down benefiting on the short-term cracks not to be so dependent on individual markets that any insight on the ground cracks and with that bilateral trade deficit.
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>> i anticipated your question but to be frank it could be soon like brazil or argentina so i don't think we have seen much evidence but having increased year on year that is attributable to the tariff cuts but pointing out those tariff differentials and with those experts so due to those
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cuts that the 90 percent tariff advantage 26.2 percent and with actual exports but you can see already there is the differential that we don't look at this as a short term opportunity that that is why we are concerned and the use of the damage that it caused.
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>> with the china and us disputes. but the prices, but another thing the japanese economy that they borrow that pot from china and that is frustrating.
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>> on the supply chain relocation nobody is leaving china that we are dealing with that the us destination product working on the philippines, had thailand even bangladesh to consider relocating the us space manufacturer. >>. >> but the ambassador said i could use that to blame it on her. but it doesn't really matter if they make love or make more. [laughter]
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and if nothing else that is a cause of stability. i am trying desperately. [laughter] and with every short-term gain was outweighed on the system of that global stability. that's like the nature of new zealand's trade with china out of consideration how the markets will grow that just to set an example the industry before i came here and 2009 or ten were doing nothing now 40 percent of the land goes to china ten or 20 percent otherwise so the huge growth
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for australia and and what has happened it is the impact on new zealand it is more likely what could be impacted down the line and interestingly it has been pretty stable but the effect of the economy has been going so well at the moment more than a trade dispute. >>. >> and with the ambassador speaking with the cooperation
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of china in with that band of five g so can you talk more about the security conference and the business with china cracks think you. >> first of all congratulations. [laughter] >> i'm sorry that i can't talk a lot about it with pending new zealand legislation with the telecommunication system and when there is significant changes and then to consult with the new - - new zealand security i have been there on a mutual basis and the
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security consensus has been identified but that process was followed that is not political and has ended up where it has and we will see where it goes from here. >> i will take the prerogative. [laughter] similarly is not a matter we can really discuss but one that can take consideration. >>. >> with the source of the american baseball yogi berra great said it's always dangerous to make predictions
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about the future so it's always dangerous to make predictions especially with donald trump but it does have a great cause of international trade and economics subduing the broad spectrum of chinese practices in technology and subsidies that they feel are antithetical to us interest. second what is worthwhile and useful to understand they know the wto will not do that for them and i submit it isn't just because they have a storied history because they do not see the membership of the wto including even those like japan or europe that are now in discussions as being willing to go to bat with them
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at the wto. the third thing to keep in mind is everything, everything should be taken at face value. how do they see this as leverage cracks and what do they see it as leverage for? i will tell you where i'm going with that. and then it seems to me with australia and japan and a
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comprehensive chinese practices and with that wto system survive they are dismantling that now and we have to agree the wto to revive. that is a binary world for us that is difficult to see and then they say we will continue to deal with his unilaterally and then and then consider
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radical things like that and if not we have a lot of trouble like that. >> for those issues and with china then if japanese interests with those issues
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and then we are discussing those issues so those issues including those reforms.
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>> and the trump administratio administration, you are with the multilateral approach and to do everything bilateral the largest economy in the world and squeeze everybody and that trilateral with the japan but from my personal perspective the first to build that coalition with all of the friends and allies first it's important to note and with all of those governments that i speak with they are in agreement with the challenge
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we need to work on together. >> if i could just add maybe it is a question the panelists don't want to answer, but there is also a clear expression from time to time whatever marketing one - - market opening can be achieved should benefit american companies which again, that takes it into a bilateral box where if there is some progres progress, calm at your expense. >> i think members are willing to address this issue and maybe it is a bit of time coming but we still haven't had new rules for quite some
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time in some areas. we have 2013 had some good outcomes but we don't like the unilateral approach. i think we made that point through the participants and we saw the harm through the direct economy. eventually that unilateral approach will be demonstrated to not be successful and then the us will be faster and turned to its allies through a longer-lasting solution. you really want that framework of rules to provide that predictability and stability and that takes time.
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>> we have a few minutes left. any questions. >> next time two microphones. we promise. [laughter] >> i am with us agency for international development but needless to say this is in a personal capacity. there is a lot of optimism about progress with the wto and one of the dynamics that needs to be addressed not so much the relationship between the united states and japan and other major players that developing countries and the role that they play. with an increasing amount of tension it gives to the
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relationship with the developing countries compared to what the chinese have been developing in that part of the world. if any of the panelist comment the dynamics and what role they play out in bringing along developing countries with these dialogues? whether the subsidies are whatever the issue may be the developing countries will play a much more important role. >> taking e-commerce as an example like with japan we are very pleased that those that are part of that he commerce initiative that was launched in brightness areas and a segue into proper negotiations with an outcome but the point
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is that a trading system and globalization isn't just about big giants but all having access and a recognition of the fact it has supported economic development across the globe and in particular with those regions in asia so it is important all countries be brought along that is important to address new issues and specifically from the wto certainly urging the us to maintain the economic engagement in the region that does include developing countries and a few
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initiatives have been announced by this administration which we really welcome. it's not just about the wto but broader economic engagement and broader economic development. >> with respect to that one of the achievements is the mix of developing and developed countries and the outcome of tpp it is effectively the same obligations but if you account for that status with different lead in times and transitions. i just put that forward as potentially a model down the line. it is difficult for the country to face the issue of
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losing to some extent the support for trade and it is critical for those of us with that problem and then to justify why other countries some that are wealthier than us have that same obligation so i leave that out there as an issue that needs to be solved and wonder if this gives us a model to do that. >> on that optimistic note, on behalf of all of us, happy holidays. think you for pulling to gather yet another fantastic panel we greatly appreciate all the work and contributions you make to discussions here in washington. thank you. [applause] [inaudible conversations]
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>> and politics are primarily the center of attention i think the way he looks at people they are either a friend or enemy and you can change categories very easily. but i think his ideas of america first is an idea i think he holds dear that our country has been shortchanged dealing with the rest of the world with trade policy and immigration policy and in the minds of many of his supporters and middle america that is a sincere set of beliefs on his part.

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