tv Andres Oppenheimer The Robots Are Coming CSPAN June 23, 2019 8:30am-10:05am EDT
>> turn it off at only does that mean you're present, we have c-span recording the event and we have all wireless signals going around and in the hopes of not interrupting anything, if you can turn your cell phone off to the presentation, we really appreciate it, don't worry, all your problems will be on them later, you won't lose anything. also since we do have c-span here tonight and we don't have microphone for the crowd for questions u during the q&a if you do have a question, if you don't mind standing up and speaking loudly so they would be able to hear on the cameras, that would be wonderful as well. also i do want to remind you we will have pbs master will be
joining and author tico and later this month we will be hosting dr. joe biden coming to miami to discuss her new book, so all of this -- all events can be found on the website, booksandbooks.com. our stores in bell harbour, sunnyland shopping center in pine crest and newest location in coconut grove. check them all out, they are all wonderful stores. finally tonight we are excited and thrilled to be welcoming the incredible andres editor and columnist for the miami herald.
oppenheimer presenta in cnn in espanol, hispanic journalist, the winner of award and prize from colombia university. here to discuss the new book, the robots are booking, understand what the future holds for today's jobs and the context of rapid automation and products and services. particularly relevant for us here at books and books, no one in this crowd but there are people who do buy books online retailers and not bookstores. [laughter] >> welcome back to books and books. [applause]
>> thank you very much. [laughter] >> for those watching on c-span, severe weather outside. thank you very much, my wife, sandra, for being with us, my son thomas who i may drag about him. florida under 40 lawyers. [cheers and applause] >> i had to brag about it and i'm very honored that coral gables mayor is with us, thanks for being with us.
the robots are coming, the age of automation, what's going to happen with all of our jobs now as the robots are doing more things that we do every day. i started with the idea of writing this book 1 years -- 6 years ago, 47% of our jobs are at risk of disappearing over the next 15 years, 47%, almost half of our jobs. when i first read it here in miami, i thought, well, you know, this is -- sounds exaggerated, half of the jobs will disappear within the next 15 years, sounds stretched out but then i realized what is
happening around myself, around my job as a journalist and i said it's happening already. 5 years ago i had -- my tv show with 5 cameras and 5 cameramen, how many cameramen do i have today? zero, i have somebody whispering to my ear, say hello to camera one, thanks for being with us, somebody says, say good-bye to camera 2, et cetera, et cetera, somebody moves some stick, somewhere, i don't know where but nobody behind the cameras.
2 years ago i've been translating my columns with the miami harold for the past 30 years with translator, human translator, so i used to write my column in english, i worked to miami harold who would send it by e-mail to translator and she would translate it into spanish and then she would e-mail it to me in spanish, i would edit it in spanish and took me about 20 minutes until about 2 years ago, i don't remember what happened, she went on vacation, she got ill, she couldn't make it and somebody in the news room said put it on google translate and i did and agreeingle translator used to be a joke, we used to joke putting something in google translator and would come out really fun you but it didn't and when i saw the outcome i thought, holy cow. it was pretty good, it took me 20 minutes editing as it used to
take me to edit my human translator. 1 months ago, 7 months ago as i was finishing the book i started using an app that transcribes interviews. i used to interview a president and transfer tape, toward, rewind, took me like 3 hours or when i was in a real hurry i would send to transcriber and would charge, 100, 200 or $300, now starting a year ago i started sending the audio to transcription service, a robot that does it in about a minute
for 3 or $4, recently i interviewed the president of argentina, coming out of presidential palace i sent the audio to trans.com, by the time i got back i had the transcript. so more and more we are seeing, i was seeing all the jobs around myself disappearing. and once the book came out, the publishing house asked me to read, i was in méxico. they asked me if i could be so kind and go to studio to take the book for audio book and an actor would read the remainder of the book and so i did.
when i get there the actor told me, andrés, i read your book and i was flabbergasted because i'm going to lose my job and i said how come, because there's a new app that reads books in whatever language you choose and whatever accent you choose and in my best mexican accent i said no mames, you're kidding. [laughter] >> we went to computer screen at the studio, he put the pdf of my book in spanish and he said, 3 paragraphs, we did, he pressed the button and there was a robot with perfectly human voice, mexican accent reading the book in spanish. another profession going down the tubes.
so i realized that this is happening not only to journalists it's happening all across the board. so i decided to look into the future of jobs but not to do broad theoretical essay. practical guide of what's going to happen to each of our jobs, so i started looking into the profession, what's going to happen to doctors, lawyers, accountants, bankers, salespeople, everybody, so i traveled to silicon valley, to japan, to new york, to south korea, to israel, to many of the places where you have stuff going onto interview the top gurus and ask them what exactly is going to change in each of
these of the pages and i dedicated one chapter to each of them. it starts with first chapters about where it's heading to, where you're heading to as a jobless world and then i start with a chapter in the future of journalist, i start as job i know best and then i dedicate one chapter respectively to the future of super markets and the people working in them, the future of banking, the future of law accounting and insurance terms, the future of health care, physicians, the future of teachers, the future of education, the future of consultation, the future of manufacturing, music, these industries, et cetera, et cetera. i dedicated one chapter to each, what i did basically was to
interview the people who know much better than i what's going to happen in each of those areas and the stuff i found was really, you know, amazing. i at least found it -- let me give you a few examples. let's start with first chapter, the one that we were talking about the future of journalists. i just talked about translator, transcribers, people who read audio books, but even reporters, even the most basic reporting jobs are being increasingly performed by robots. i interviewed the head of innovation of washington post and the new york times and the head of innovation of the washington post, i interviewed him shortly before the election last year, november midterm
election, and he told me that all the washington post stories on the election results would be written by robots. in other words, every study, every story you read saying candidates x won the district of colombia by 3% of the vote beating candidate y and then the story of candidate one and what this means in the general election, all of that was already written by robot. how does it work, well, somebody, a human puts the information into algorithm, and then on election night what the person does is putting election results from ap or another wired service to trigger 3% or whoever won and then algorithm would put
the story together. what's the context to have election figure out what is this person's victory, what does it mean in terms of balance in congress, et cetera, et cetera, all written by a robot. we will see over and over in all professions, what it means is that journalists will have to change what they do today radically because over the past 10 years in america journalists fell by almost 40%, there used
to be 66,000 media workers in america and today there are 41,000, in other words, 25,000 american journalists lost their jobs. the same is happening in many other areas. second chapter, sandra my wife and i went to japan and we went to hotel entirely staffed by robots, you may have read about it. it's in tokyo and it was really funny because we walked in and it was late at night and this was near disney world, disney world on the outskirts of tokyo and obviously wanted to cater to
family audience, the robots don't look like humans, they look like dinosaurs. they are dinosaurs, robotic, they really look like dinosaurs, so we walked in and one of the robotic dinosaurs greeted us, japanese dinosaur, greeted us and they said, and the robot concierge was dressed as a concierge said hello, good evening, welcome and asked me to put my password into the machine, and so i did, then asked me to -- said another machine, what i had to sign my name, i did, next thing he does is with his hands he shows me another machine, credit card,
same thing a human concierge does when you check into a hotel at the end he said pointing at another machine, please take your room key and so we did and a thing a human concierge would do. obviously i wanted to challenge the robot. i asked him what's your name and the dinosaur froze and i asked him again, no, seriously, what's your name and the dinosaur started sort of making weird movements, it was really uncomfortable, i asked him and he went really crazy, making
strong noises and at the end at the fourth or fifth time when i really kept asking i want to know what's your name, he said, wait a moment, please, an assistant will come out to help you out. [laughter] >> so this lady comes out from a door behind, and says, introduces herself, pretty good english and she said, please excuse us but these robots are fairly new, they started working 2 weeks ago, they are sufficient in japanese but not that good in english, so please excuse but they would be able to answer these and any other questions in a very short time so please excuse us. bottom line i started talking with her and i asked her and turns out the hotel had 100 rooms and at that time at night she was the only person human at
the hotel. so here is a question, how are hotels manned by humans going to compete on hotel that has 100 rooms and is staffed by one person? needless to say the robotic dinosaurs you can make them whatever you want, you can make them look like humans but these guys don't eat, don't sleep, don't text during working hours, don't take vacation, never ask for a raise. how are you going to compete with that? so that's something that's coming, then we went to restaurants in japan, went to
sushi where the reception is robots who ask you how many people are in your party and you say 3 or 4 or whatever and the robot tells you go to table number 5, go to table number 5, there's a -- these are like in the airports they have conveyer belts and there's a conveyer belt going to all the tables and you have a tablet on your table, so you pick whatever sushi you want and put your credit card in and the screen will tell you please your food will come in tray number 17, so you look at the conveyer belt and sooner or later your sushi comes on tray number 17, you take it out and
eat and then you leave. these restaurants don't have any waiters, of course, and even the chef is a robot. they have a robotic chef with two hands, two robotic hands, one robotic hand he or she cuts the sushi and with the other hand puts the salmon, the roll, whatever they put on the sushi, so that's coming and you see it already in fast-food restaurants in miami. if you go to panera here or mcdonalds you'll see more and more tablets and fewer and fewer attendants and people especially 30-something, they don't want to -- you say, well, what about the human touch that can only be conveyed by a human?
and many of the 30-somethings say, i don't want to interact with a waiter or waitress. i'm in a hurry. i want to be with my friends. so instead of spending time trying to make eye contact with a baiter -- waiter or waitress and passing through without even looking at you and then waving at them, i want to be with my friends, have a good time, don't spend time on that so they find it much more convenient to use tablet in totally automated restaurant. so that's happening in every other profession. in that same chapter i interviewed the union leader of the las vegas reunion, they threatened to go in strikes a couple of months ago as i was
finishing the book because of robots, more and more hotels in las vegas and in miami are using robots. robots that take your breakfast to your room on their head and replacing waiters and waitresses and i asked the union leader, how are you going to compete with machines that, again, work 3 shifts a day, don't take vacations, don't ask for a raise, et cetera, et cetera, and interesting she said we know that is a losing battle, we can't compete with that. we are not telling the hotels to stop using them but we are telling them is for every displaced waiter, for every displaced waitress, you need to train them, the people losing their jobs to do something else within the hotels, in other words, use them but retrain the
workers to do something else, the worker is displaced waiter is weight lifter, put them in lobby to become an adviser of fitness for guests, et cetera, a waitress that can cook, put her in the kitchen, et cetera, et cetera, so that's going to revolutionize the workforce even in the jobs you at least think about, like teachers, like physicians, like lawyers, teachers, in the chapter about teachers, i interviewed and i had them on my cnn show, i interviewed robot called professor einstein, it's a robot, looks exactly like einstein, long hair, glasses,
professor look and it's a robot that teaches math, science and geometry and you can ask him anything about math and can explain it to you and you don't get it as i would, professor einstein, i don't get it, can you explain it in another way and he will explain it in a second way and a third way and fourth, fifth or sixth, 20 ways of explaining something. and if you're good at getting information who -- orally or visually, he never gets tired unlike a teacher are upset or impatient. so what does that mean? it means that -- doesn't mean teachers are going to lose their jobs but it means that teachers'
jobs are going to become something totally different to what they are now, it doesn't make any sense for teachers to continue being conveyers of information. at this day in age, any child, any young person can google whatever he or she wants. doesn't make sense. any kid can look that up in a much more fun way on the internet than getting it from a human in front of them. now, again, as with journalists, journalists are not going disappear, they will stop become ing basic reporters telling people what happened and who said what, they are going to become investigative reporters, opinion writers, human writers,
et cetera, et cetera, in the same way teachers are no longer going to be por vaiers of information, they'll be motivators and people who will teach values to young people and show people thousand become team players and most importantly they are going to be, people will help kids find their future, find their passion, they will do everything but what they are doing today. same thing for physicians, same thing for lawyers, same thing for manufacturing workers, in south korea i went to, yeah,
robot factory and they were selling me that the typical company in south korea is about 20 workers, human workers and 200 robots. and the joke which is joke in silicon valley as well, that the factory of the future will only have 2 employees, a man or a woman and a dog. the man or the woman will be there to feed the dog and the dog will be there to make sure that the man doesn't touch any of the machines. [laughter] >> that's the factory of the future. and it's coming everywhere. i'm going to shorten this up, we can talk about any of the other
professions right now but two of them which many people think are irreplaceable by robots, physicians and lawyers or judges, physicians have this dr. house intuition or perception or human touch that a physician can i don't care -- look at you and tell you whatever you have, well, first of all, half of what physicians do in many areas is already being replaced by apps and robots. if you're a dermatologist probably today you spend half of your day telling patients whether sun spots are good or bad especially here in miami. they will look at you and look at your spots and say, well, this one is good, don't worry about it, this one, let's look at it, et cetera, they probably
spend half of the time, forget it, now it's an app where you can take a picture of your spots, you know, press here and tells you, it's okay, don't worry or go to doctor and see what it is. judges, you would think that judges are sort of above the trade, they are to be a judge you need a lot of common sense, qualities that we wouldn't have, again, a study done in israel with 30 -- i think it was 30 traffic judges, and what they found out is algorithm can do the job much better because they looked at the judges' rulings for six months and turned out that when they started their day, 9:00 o'clock in the morning they were incredibly nice and
they condoned almost every traffic ticket, they were very benign and as the morning went on and they got hungrier they became more and more impatient, you know, and by the end of the morning, they killed almost every traffic and went to long and in the afternoon they were in very good humor, almost everybody and as the afternoon went on, they would become stricter and stricter, so an algorithm can do their job much better. so just to start wining up, some of you may be saying, okay, andrés, what you say is right but i've been hearing this story that robots will replace us for
decades, you know, since the simpsons, the cartoons that had the robots working, et cetera, et cetera, we have been hearing that robots will replace us and hasn't happened. that's true, but -- but there's a big but, there's something that's very new and what's new is that robots have suddenly become much smarter and much cheaper. they've become much cheaper because today a robot cost a fraction of what it cost 5 years ago. in 2010 if i remember figures in the book -- yeah, here it is, robot in china cost equivalent 5.3 years of a worker's salary,
5.3 years, today robot in china cost less than 1 year of a human worker's salary and probably since i wrote the book by now it's maybe much less than a year. so they are becoming incredibly, you know, cheaper, and at the same time they are becoming incredibly smarter because 5 years ago a robot was an individual machine, you had the robot, you opened up and put chip in it and the robot would, you know, screw something in car factory 10,000 times a day but now that robot is connected to the cloud and through the cloud it's connected to that robot and that robot and that robot and it's learning constantly from each of the robots' mistakes and
achievements and this combination of robots are becoming suddenly much smarter and much cheaper, it's going the change everything over the next very few years, i'm not talking 10, 20, 30 years, i'm talking about 5 years. i'm convinced that this is going to be the biggest issue globally, technological unemployment and i'm optimistist in the long run because in the long run technology has always created more jobs than it has killed. history shows that we are much better off than we used to be, always fear that automation would kill our jobs, in the
industrial revolution workers went on strike thinking thinkine automatic textiles sowing machine would kill their jobs, started automatic sowing machines, what happened, exactly the opposite of what would happen. automatic machines produce cheaper clothing and people could buy cheaper clothes, more disposable income to buy more clothes and other goods and in the end more textile workers than there were in the beginning, same thing with car industry, when the first car came out, the horse-driven carriage makers went on strike and started, oh, god, the
machines will kill those of us who build the carriages, those of us who clean the stables, those who feed the horses, disaster. thousands of people are going to lose their jobs? what happened? the opposite. the cars not only created millions of jobs in the car industry, factories, but also in roads, bridges, all the infrastructure that was needed to have the cars rolling, so in the past, technology has always created more jobs than it has killed, but in the short term, i'm more pessimistic, and what i found out in the 5 years was when i started the big gurus, all the technological gurus,
bill gates, mark zuckerberg, all of them were very optimistic and said this is going to be fabulous, et cetera, it's not going to kill any jobs, they cited examples of industrial revolution, of the cars, automatic, but at the end when i was finishing the books, most of if not all would change because in the short run it'll be very traumatic because something has changed, the times, the timing has changed. people are going to have -- are already having less and less time to reinvent themselves. in the stone ages when we turn from -- caveman or cavewomen we
had thousands of years to reinvent ourselves from hunters and gathers to farmers, thousands of years, and with it more recently in industrial revolution we had hundreds of years to reinvent ourselves from farmers into factory workers. then we had many years, 100 years to reinvent from factory workers into service workers. but today with this skyrocketing automation that we are having in all of our professions, we don't have thousand of years or a hundred of years, nor a couple of decades, we often have 24 hours, a woman who was working
across the garage, she's being told overnight as of monday you are going to be replaced by automatic cashier, issues tickets. that woman doesn't have a thousand years or a hundred years. so in the short run we are all going to have major challenges in all of our professions to reinvent ourselves. i'm going to finish it right here so we can interact, you may be interested at the end of the book i have a chapter of the jobs of the future, what i recommend to young people today
and what i think is going to happen over the next couple of years as i said, right now we have low unemployment in this country, but don't kid ourselves, let's not kid ourselves, this is going to hurt everybody, this is going to be a major problem not only of 21st century over the next 10, 20 years and the first couple of chapters i have some examples of how industries are changing. the biggest companies, a couple of decades ago a, the, -- at&t, the ones that have biggest to market value have 5,000, 10,000. at&t employed 7800 people, google employs 75,000.
blockbuster had 60,000 employees , sent chapter 11 by instagram or netflix that had a few dozen employees and today has 5400, so more and more people are going to work independently as they are now, the economy is becoming increasingly and we are all becoming temporary workers, a study that i cite in the book that says that in 10 years 80% of us are going to be temporary independent workers so forget about working your whole life young people for a company, that would be increasingly difficult and in the long run technology will make goods cheaper, it's going to make our lives better as it has been in the past.
but in the short term all of us in whatever we do, we are going to be affected as people and as nations and if we don't prepare ourselves for that we are going to be left behind. thank you. [applause] [inaudible] >> you to tell them what site? >> i will. i will. you thought i was going to skip the question but i won't. i ask that question to every technology gurui interviewed and i interviewed i think some of the best in the world. in silicon valley, in new york n japan n korea and israel and, et cetera, et cetera.
and most of them told me what i expected to hear, most of them told me, of course, you know, data analysts, one of them summed it up talking about text-related jobs, he told me, i tell the young people find a wave of the future, meaning one of these jobs put surf board and surf it, jobs of the future, some of them -- i'm not going to say all 10 because otherwise nobody is going to read the book. [laughter] >> i will mention a couple of
them, most of the gurus i interviewed said health, in 10 years 300 million more people age 65 and over than they are now, so whether you're a physician, a nurse, or a yoga instructor or zumba professor, you will do very well, more and more need for all that. data analysts, of course, that's wave of the future, digital security, robot technicians. those are in the book. going back to waves of the future, so this guru, technology guru told me, wind wave of the future, put your surf board on it and surf it.
my conclusion was different because i found during this research that there's a bright future for things that don't have anything to do with technology as well. we are going to have more and more free time in the future, we already work, many of us work crazy hours and as human we work less and less n. the stone ages we used to work 24/7, we were hunters and and if we didn't hunt animals, we wouldn't eat. in biblical times the jews took one day off saturday and then came catholics took sunday, muslims took friday, one day a week, in the industrial revolution we took two dais off a week, saturday and sunday. now, in many european countries you already have 3 day -- 3 days off a week, friday, saturday and
sunday. so we are working less and less and more of us are spending more time watching netflix or hulu or any other things that are spending enormous money in hire ing actors, actressing, writers, et cetera, et cetera. there will be room for humanities, the arts, anything that has to do with leisure. contrary to what tech gurus say i cite several areas that also have a bright future. i added to the metaphor about searching for waves of the
future, if you have a passion, follow your passion because that's what i did. i come from a family, my family in argentina that had factory, food factory, at one point i had 400 employees, and any mother wanted me to become a business person to take over and i hated it, i didn't want to become a businessman, i wanted to be a journalist since i was very young. i followed my passion and to this day it's the best decision i've ever made. if you -- why because i never thought about making money, i thought about doing what i wanted and if you really do what you want, if you have a passion, do it because you will be much better on whatever you do than if you do if you follow waves of the future that may change any
time but don't feel passionate about it. my advice for young people if you really have a passion u if you want to be a plummer and you really love plumbing and you're willing to work night and day on it and you're -- you really enjoy you will be an excellent plummer and everybody will call you and if you don't, you will be a happy man. but if you don't have a passion, so -- if you have a passion, do your passion, if you don't have a passion, okay, then, plan b. put your surf on it and surf. >> my wife and i were in taiwan in 90's, late 90's, for the
first time they gave saturday afternoons, you had to work 6 days a week and nobody knew what to do, nobody knew what to do with all of those people doing nothing. i followed that up after 2 years and they created so much employment in different areas, of course, leisure industries, tourism, whatever. >> well one of the tech gurus, smartest people i interviewed at the university of oxford and sandra was with me was nick, swedish guy who wrote a best-seller called super intelligence, he's an expert in artificial intelligence. and he told me smiling, you know, we are heading to jobless world and that's the best thing that could happen. i looked at him, this guy is -- this guy is really cruel.
he said, of course, he said the concept that work is purpose in life is a pretty new recent conflict, in the middle ages aristocrats, princes, prince -- princesses, they spent time practicing art and when the industrial revolution our whole schooling system taught us to value work and to turn our jobs into the purpose of our lives. now, that's easier said than done because we already have in our chip, mental chip that those
values inside from the minute we grew up. i don't see that we will change that very easily. the concept that technology will create robots and will do out of the work for it and mankind in 50 years would be pretty much watching netflix while the robots do our -- our, you know, with vr, head sets watching movies, et cetera, et cetera, and the robots are going to do the work, and that he used metaphor of horses, horses used to do much of the work and one day we invented machines and the world horse population declined dramatically, horses became extinct, they became -- we only use them for riding, for sports
and some police in parks use them to patrol the parks but the world horse population has plummeted for the past 200 years and the same may happen with mankind, that's one theory, but the fact is that perhaps 200 years from now if we start changing our chips and our children's mental chips gradually, we may get to a world -- jobless world where people will be happy, robots will do the work and we are going to, you know, do yoga or zumba, watch sports or do whatever we want. it'll be hard for us in our generations to do that because we already have it inside ourselves, the notion that the word gets meaning of life and if
i may add, bill gates and others have suggested taxing the robots because he says, if we as workers pay taxes, why shouldn't robots pay taxes and that could solve the problem. the problem with that is that what are we going to do with our self-esteem of jobless, so i propose at the end of the book sort of a middle ground, i propose -- a lot of people are proposing a universal basic income, they are trying that in canada, they are trying that in finland and several other countries, giving people a base salary whether they work or not. i support a different solution which is a universal basic income linked to social work to
upgrade the status of social work, turn it into a very respectable thing, today it's not as much as it should and tell people, okay, you are good in math, okay, basic income but you go and teach a kid in a poor neighborhood math. you're good with senior people, go and entertain an 85-year-old lady and you get a basic income for that. if we do that and at the same time we -- we upgrade the -- the source status of social work, i think then we are heading towards something meaningful. >> andrés, you go around in
latin america talking to government leaders and have you discussed about this, do they know what's coming? >> i have asked several presidents about this and some of them are going to have a very rude awakening because some of the interesting things i learned researching the book is that this phenomena automation, robotization, i thought when i started doing the research that it was going to hurt developed countries the most, the u.s., japan, germany, and virtually all of the gurus, tech gurusi interviewed told me it's the opposite, the people that would be hurt the most by this are countries that rely heavily on manufacturing like china and méxico because the first -- the easiest thing a robot can do is mechanic, repetitive work.
that's the first thing a robot can do and the countries that are going to be hurt the most are china, méxico and other countries that rely heavily on manufacturing much more than -- so i asked several presidents, most of them are, you know, don't have the foggest idea, you know, didn't have idea of what i was talking about. one of them, the one i mentioned earlier told me, the president of argentina told me a funny anecdote and i can tell it because it was on the record, as a matter of fact, i think i had it on my cnn show, he said, he told me anecdote, he recently heard 200 million investment in argentina, he was very happy about it, he called his ministers, called information people and he said, great, you know, it was -- i think it was a brewery, beer factory and called
cabinet and said how and when are we going to announce this and he said he was all, you know, ready to make a big announcement until he heard how many jobs this 200 million-dollar investment would have created. he said 22. he said this is like a sandwich factory. he said -- [speaking in spanish] >> empanada outlet, nothing, that's the world we are heading at and unfortunately most presidents, he obviously was aware of that and but you can count them with one hand. most of them don't have the foggest idea and why china is preparing full steam for this, they are buying robots, biggest robot buyers in the world, industrial robots, méxico is not doing anything about this not
even talking about this, so i'm very word about méxico and méxico is going to be very, very hardly hit by this. now, over the next 5, 10 years. yes. [inaudible] >> surgical teams and i witnessed how they can work on abdominal part of the body and -- [inaudible] >> you probably know about all this. >> the surgeons are worried about robotics. .. ..
this discovery was a had a meeting, they were discussing how to and the mayor was interested in this, they had a meeting at theuniversity , sort of a meeting in which he talked about something they were working on at the robotics department about a sensor or a little robot that would help detect leaks in the pipes, because apparently there's a big problem in our city, a lot of water is lost to leaks and that cost a lot of money so they were working on a robot or a mini robot to go through the pipes of cities, the water pipes and find ruptures that created leaks. one guy in the audience like you said i'm a doctor, i'm the head of the medicine school. why don't we do this without
tubes and that's where it started? >> we're injecting smoke into these tubes and checking where they come out, so we have to robot over here. >> if i could have a glass of water, i'd appreciate it. but medicine is going to be totally overhauled because again , it's like teachers, journalists but they're going to have to reinvent themselves and do something else . as a doctor, you can't compete for instance in diagnosing illnesses with watson, the supercomputer by ibm. there's no way. you as a professional and an intellectually motivated
professional, you can read how many scientific articles after work, one a week, to a week, 10 a week? watson can scream 10,000 articles per week. there's no way you compete with him. aside, you as a doctor, a middle-aged doctor probably have experience of 10,000 patients. watson, when i go into your office and i tell you what i have, you prescribe the uphill. partly because of the literature you've read and partly because of your experience as a doctor . that tells you that you have given this pill to 10,000 people and 95 percent of the cases, it works. but watson has an experience of 500 million people, and watson as an experience that
is 1 million times bigger than yours so there's no way you can compete with a supercomputer in diagnosing somebody's illness. besides, something i learned, there are more than 10,000 illnesses. how can you as a human know of all of them and of the latest discoveries in all of them? now, physicians are not going to disappear . you're probably going to be able to interpret what the machine says. you're probably going to hold my hand and say don't worry, don't freak out. what watson means is let's find a way, we're going to work thisout, etc. . empathy, all of these things a human will continue doing better than a machine. [inaudible] >> i have a son who has a
wearable chip. [inaudible] so what we all should do as professionals. >> at the end of the book eyesight 12 things we should do. again, i'm not going to tell you which tend but i'm going to tell you to. one of them is in each of your professions, you have to prepare yourselfby finding out right now , and this is what i tried to do in the book in each of the professions, which part of your profession is going to disappear. if you're a journalist, your profession is not going to disappear but if you write the factual story, what we learned in j school, who, what, when, etc., candidate mayor said today that blah
blah, forget it, that's over. the algorithms are almost as good as, much cheaper and they work three shipstoday, they won't ask for vacation . so you have to focus on the areas of your job that are going to disappear and develop the ones that have a future. if you're a journalist, whatever. humor, opinion, analysis, investigativereporting. many areas that will continue being done byhumans . if you're a teacher , you'd better become a good coach. you'd better becomesomebody trained in helping kids find a passion . forget about what we have always known as teaching. giving out information, that's over. the first thing you have to do is identify and again,
this is what i tried to do in every one of these professions in thebook, identify which part of , don't get mad at me but there's already a robot that ran for mayor. and here comes the bad news, he came out third in the race . >>. [inaudible] ran for mayor and one. >> there you go. rafael rosario's, one of the best sculptors we have in the united states . >> i'm in the art field. i have found that a lot of new artists are utilizing the computer system for the drawings and i do not, i do not do it with a computer. i have found most of that work has no soul, has no human error, has no spirit.
so i'm glad i'm not going to fall into that surfing problem. but i do have a question about that. some of them are not really artists, they are just very good marketers . and they know how to promote themselves and they do very welleconomically . and there's an opposition to that which was the school that was foundedin caracas venezuela by some friends of mine. they did an art college but before you did the art , on equipment, on computer equipment you'd have to learn how to draw and there's a synergy in that even our kids are losing. they cannot write as we did. i don't even know what the
question is, but there's an economy there. >> don't take today's trends as permanent because there is apendulum affect . one of the things i found is that you're going to have a reaction. you're going to have an anti-tech movement and you may find in art aswell a return to the roots . because when i started researching this, five years ago and mostly 10 years ago, the tech rules were at the peak of their fame and wealth and social approval. bill gates, mark zuckerberg , they were all gods. today, mark zuckerberg is seen in a very different
light. many people are beginning to see him as a bad guy, especially in the 2016 election. i think, and we see that everywhere, not only with tech guys but there is an anti-tech movement. again, i'm very pro-tech, but i see an anti-tech movement that not unlike the anti-globalization movement of the past 20 years is going to make a lot of noise. it's not going to change anythingbut it's going to make a lot of noise . because there are excessive's as you mentioned. i as a protect person, as a tech lover and an optimist and somebody who thinks that tech and large is making the world a better place, we are living longer, we're living better. i always tell people who are
pessimistic, people who complain, there's hunger in ethiopia. that's horrible, we have to do something against it, no question about it but people see the glass half empty, i always tell them going to the dentist today or having gone to the dentist 200 years ago? when we pulled this tooth with a pencil, pincers and not on your head with a bottle of whiskey. of coursetoday, we're living longer, with living better , we conquered systemic pain and these are things that count a lot. but there are excesses. one of the things i discovered and again, i learned a lot by researching this book , is that tech companies, their market value is not a function of the
number of followers. i always thought that facebook, twitter, that their market value grew or fell based on the number of followers but a lot of people told me that's not the case. the market value grows or falls as a function of the engagement time of the followers which means that their engineers are paid to keep you glued to the screen for as long asthey can . so i'm for instance getting very angry now, i may consumer like many of you. i love their series but until a year ago at the endof an episode , house of cards or whatever, you got a little sign saying if you want to see thenext episode , click here and you clicked there
and you watched the next episode. and six months ago they started putting a five second time frame and they put the next episode right away. and now it doesn't take anything, i think it takes one second so you spend six hours now, you don't sleep . you wake up in the morning, in a terrible mood. and that's wrong, they're abusing. so i think maybe a lot of people in california and i talk about it in the book who are becoming a lot of former guru and facebook and twitter employees are beginning to speak out against tech addictions because thereis such a thing as tech addiction . kids are becoming depressed,
kids are becoming antisocial, kids are becoming isolated though there is a movement in the arts, there is a movement everywhere to become increasingly connected, hyper connected. i think that this is going to fade away somewhat. it's not going to go away, but somebody, a neuroscientist i was talking with on the head of my tv show two weeks ago when we were talking about tech addiction, about twitterand facebook, he was told me 10 years from now , twitter and facebook, forget it. they're not going to be by far what they are now and i said why? i'm old enough to remember, he said, pictures of physicians in their hospital
rooms smoking while talking with theirpatients . and now i don't remember that, but he said now, if anybody show you a picture of that, you would say this is crazy, where is this happening ? he said this is the same way were going to look behind at the times when we were glued to our computers with cell phones watching twitter and facebook. i think social networks and cell phones of course are not going to disappear. we may even get them in virtual-reality headsets but there will be an anti-tech, anti-tech addictionmovement . and i think it's going to happen across the board including in the arts.
>> before i asked the question i'd like to say i believe it's not a fair comparison, general or modest . google, google. because goebel wasn't even there, google is only 15 years old. i see it as a positive, the result of technology. but 5000 people are now working at google. but you're right, you could compare general motors not even with tesla. >> the number one company in market value 20 years ago and the number one company in market value today, that's a fair comparison but you're right . and i say in the book that that measure is right, but on the other hand we have to consider indirect jobs created by google because those 55,000 don't include the kids who invented a app
at home with the people who sell on ebay. there are many indirect jobs that you could say exist as a result of google. >> but my question is the following, what is your major concern, unemployment or the transformation of a social transformation, a change in the human condition? >> my main concern is what's going to happen to the lady in the parking lot, that's my main concern and what's going to happen to countries like mexico, like many latin american companies rely on manufacturing and arenot even talking about this . remember that figure i gave you earlier.
industrial robots 12 years ago cost the equivalent of5.3 years of a worker salary, today it's less than one year . years from now and industrial robots can cost a month's worth of a worker salary and again, and industrial worker works three shifts in a row, doesn't complain, doesn't eat, doesn't go to the bathroom, etc. concern about the lady who works as a cashier for the parking lot who's going to be fired laid off. within 24 hours and replaced by a machine. and i'm worried about the countries that rely heavily on manufacturing, and other jobs. like those. they're going to disappear like this because of automation. >> and your major concern? >> my major concern is what we call technological unemployment in the short run because as i said, in the long run, technology will
create more jobs than it will kill. but that doesn't solve the short term. and the problem is as i said, that in the past we had some years to reinvent ourselves, the lady in the parking lot because she in the parking lot won't have months or years to reinvent herself. she's got to lose a job overnight. and that's a new problem. because the times are shortening. exponentially. >> could you talk about the acceleration of science itself? the fact that we are learning at a speed faster than we ever have and the world has been returning over history faster than ever.
but now, that's getting even worse. >> that's what we call exponential change and we're seeing the problem is that again, exponential change are those curves that you see going like this and suddenly they go like that. and the problem is what's going to happen to us who are born and taught that jobs are a meaning to our lives. 200 years from now, who knows. maybe it will be a different problem. maybe people will be born and enjoy dancing and surfing and it will be great.there will be a great jobless world . >>. >> but the problem is that our kids these days are already born with a chip . the mental work, it gives us a meaning in life.
there will be other planets that we go. >> my research. [inaudible] >> so from what i hear there are going to be more jobs in manufacturing? [inaudible] what about violence? what is going to happen? you hear a lot of violence right now so what is going to happen? >> as i said earlier, one of the jobs with the biggest future is anything related to healthcare. like colleges, psychiatrists, counselors. excuse me? security? >>.
>> but especially cyber security. that's going to be a thing of the future. >> psychology on absolutely any problem,that's one of the most secure jobs in the world . >> the no governments or scientists are. >> you know if scientists or governments or the fda are taking care of that part -mark in which the harm, there's a harm that you get by exposure to the new life, i only bought one yearago i could sleep that well and it was really just that .so all of that, a lot of these moments, you hear google tech addiction, there is amovement , i interviewed one of the heads of it in california
called, i don't remember now. the truth about tech. and they're all former google and facebook executives. who are worried about these things. who arecomplaining , so they're going to be especially against child tech addiction. there was a apparently, we are victims of tech addiction if we stand until brick in the morning watching netflix and as i said, we wake up and in that mode we don't see that the kids suffer much more because there's a lot of depression related diseases, etc. linked to tech addiction so you have many people worrying about that and are pressing the government and the companies to do something about it. of course, our government is more worried about mexicans
crossing the border than what's happening in our country. >>. >> i talk about in the book is what i talk about in the book is that the fact that the market values of these companies according to people's engagement time and that's driving the tech companies to try to get us to become addicts, basically. they want to say, they will put it that way but that's what they're doing. so as much as i am pro-google, pro-facebook, probe everything, i think there is something to be said tell these companies, don't abuse.
so there must be some concern about people's health, people's mental health, people's time. >> in your book you mentioned something very interesting that happened to you with alexa. my question is are you still using alexabecause i don't know what to do with that thing . >> what you're referring to is there's a lot of literature and a lot of concern about singularity, about the robots becoming smarter than us, taking over the world. science fiction stuff, a lot of movies are done about that . but i think in the book that my concern is not so much robots are going to become, they're going to rule the world, my concern is that they're going to become crazy. because what happened to us at home, we have an alexa and one day i was alone at home working in my study . and in the living room i hear
some voices. a male voice and i was scared . i said there's a robbery, somebody i don't have a weapon at home so i grabbed a glass or whatever , walked to the living room and myheart was pounding to confront the robber . and alexa had turned itself on by itself. those of you who have alexa, you know you have to call her and she wakes up when you call her . so she went on her own and there was an announcer on npr reading the news. so i called amazon and i get somebody, i got somebody in india or pakistan saying probably there was a tv set on and probably alexa heard something that she interpreted as alexa and she woke up and i said no, there
was absolutely nothing on at home . are you sure it wasn't a kid, a person? my wife was traveling, there was nobody at home. i don't have a dog, don'thave a cat . it can't be anything else. i asked her can you please upscaled this to a supervisor. so couple days later i had my case number, talk to supervisor and the supervisor looked into my case and email me or call me back and remember a couple of days and said it must have been a technical glitch. and i said wow, i mean, technical glitch. what would that mean when we have our artificial hearts connected to the cloud, what will they tell you when it stops so sorry, it was a technical glitch. so i think that before we get concerned about robots ruling
the world, we have to be worried about robots going nuts and malfunctioning. >>. >> going to have to find a new way to define our value beyond work. in our data. their engagement is all data. it's all algorithms so our value is based on our data now. that's the way things work now. you discussed in the book that in the future if any of these jobs not only to safeguard data but do, quiet as well. they're doing it itself but as individuals, our data is with money that we're giving away for free. >> i quote somebody in the book saying if the product is free, the product is you. in other words, if someone offers you something for free, they want your info . and that's the way it works. and now as part of the call in addition to the hand-picked addiction move
there's a big anti- pro-privacy, anti- data abuse movement. i don't think there's going to change completely. because many of us don't want to amazon, many of us still want amazon to know which kind of books and interests therein so they don't flood us with things that are totally notinterested in the same time we want amazon not to know everything about us . so with everything, i'm sure they will find a middle ground. but i have a lot of respect for not for the unpaid tech workers but for those who want to play some limits. on the abuses of tech, because there are a few. >>. [inaudible]
>> you should be charging them in some respects. >> there are many companies that are already paying you just to get out your data. >> you should get involved in those movements, you can google them, i just mentioned one of them in the book, i mentioned several others and again, i may protect person, i love google, love amazon, love all these companies. i'm on twitter all the time. but as with any thing new, we have to press for limits on abuses. one more? and we're finished. yes. >> do we have an idea of
where we are on the job market? in other words , >> teachers and professors, as i said earlier would have to forget about teaching quote unquote. and focus on motivating and helping kids find their passion. that's going to be and there's not much we can do in our generation for people who are, i think we're always born with the idea that jobs give us a purpose in life. what's going to happen in 200 years again, maybe we reach a jobless world and everybody will be happy and we will have them be. >>. >> let me finish or give you
a second of the pen or doesn't tips that i get about what to do to prepare yourself. the first was identify which part of your job has the best chance of surviving. identifying whichpart of your job will disappear, identifying that which part of your job as the best part of growing . the second one is studying for life. i interviewed one of the persons i interviewed in the book , i think it was in the chapter of the patient, is the president of mit. in boston area and he said that a location from now on will be like subscribing to a magazine. for life. forget about going to school for years. getting your diploma, putting on your wall and working your whole life. based on what you learned in school because by the time you graduate,half of what you learn is already outdated .
so that piece of paper, that diploma is important, and it's going to be more and more important. but it's not going to be enough. you have to study for life. either two update your's skills because technology will force you already change your skills, update your skills all thetime . or if your job disappears entirely, to reinvent yourself entirely because from now on you go to school for four or five years , then you start working and you go back to school. and you go back to work, to the job market and you go back to school. easier to update yourself or to reinvent yourself. but what we did, most of us did just going to school and then working for the rest of your life, that's over. and thank you very much. [applause]
>> the new c-span online store now has book tv products, go to c-span.org to check them out, see what's new for both tv and all the c-span products. >> you're sitting here watching tv, we are in new york city at the annual publishersconvention . talking with authors who have books coming out and now we want to introduce you to anna weiner. who has a book coming out in january of 2020. it's called uncanny valley, a memoir. anna, what do you do now for a living and how did you get this. >> question. i'm currently writing full-time. i am intruding writer for the new yorker website that covers on valley culture, tech, san francisco. and i got there probably are