Skip to main content

tv   East Asia Summit Preview Energy Panel  CSPAN  November 4, 2014 9:49am-10:59am EST

9:49 am
evolve this. we just don't have -- we're trying to build this airplane as it's flying to put it another way. so anyway, those are the things we need to change and those three i think for sure. >> thank you. let's go over here to the side. >> admiral, sidney freedburg, breaking defense. i just came from off virginia where your folks and a lot of the allies are starting off bold alligator. and goes to a lot of the themes you mentioned but also to some of the challenges you mentioned in the past. i mean, you have a lot of different countries operating there. we have a danish admiral commanding u.s. ships. working understand more than past exec sizes on the crisis response, humanitarian side, opposed to just kinetic side. but also, you know, they had to college an antenna on the side of the lpd to communicate with the allies. looks like they're stealing cable in the third world slum
9:50 am
and just kind of strung up there and the dutch ship, the flagship of this, you know, task force is built to commercial damage control standards, even so-called low threat environment, somebody may get the hands control standards. how do we deal with these problems with the allies not just technically but in terms of what they are able to survive in terms of threats? >> if i had that answer as clearly as i would like to we would probably say we have the answers. we are in the bit of discovery. i think you are discovering that. you have outlines a few of the things that come about. what kind of equipment and capabilities do our allies have? we need to understand that and you don't really find those issues until you bring them together. we are still coming back -- the marines come back to sea we
9:51 am
welcome them back and they have a capability as they move ahead on ground operations over the years in iraq and afghanistan. we didn't move at the same pace and stay as synchronized as we should have. the discovery that you described we are putting an antenna on here that makes us compatible with our ground forces. we will get that capability, understand it and put it into the programming system and we will install that as a pay load for command and control and also for coordination. what do we need for the allies as i just described we use your antenna as an example. the tracking processes, if you will, and capability and planning capability would be great for the navy and marine corps. back to air and sea battle how do we use that with allies? is it compatible? do we step it up and have maybe
9:52 am
two different modes, one would be internal and one would be allied in that regard. with regard to how do we baseline survivalability and elements, we have to figure that out right now, what kind of ships we put into a joint force entry scenario. that ship is built to commercial standards in many of its elements. we wouldn't put that in as one of the first ships to do forcible entry. that is a $600 million ship. the uss america is over $4 billion. there is a scaling that we need to consider in all of that. but i summarize with saying that's why we do bold alligator and those are the lessons learned. we will put it into our programming. >> one quick follow up because
9:53 am
we talked a lot about china and the allies. i want to ask for update on how the russian navy is behaving and what extent you are continuing to see them seek to be provocative in the difficult year we have had with them. >> i will leave it with that. they are not as busy on the surface domain. out at sea many ships we see i recognize as something i learn, a few of my commanding days. they are building new frigates. they are not out and about so much. they are pretty active up in the air. they are long range flights and reconnaissance probably more active than they have been in a decade in that regard. they have operating money, clearly. they are out and about. they are operating professionally as always. they have probed up in the
9:54 am
alaska area. we responded and they acted professionally. so far so good in that regard. but i would call them more busy, more operations. their focus is on the under sea and then the surface and the air. that is what i have seen. >> thank you. let's take two questions here in the fourth row. let's see if we can respond and then we have time for one wrap up round. these two right here. >> how are you doing with operations and how are you managing that? >> if we could add this one. >> correspond for the central news agency. i am wondering how important or how less important rule taiwan plays in the state's policy. also, i know that taiwan is expecting to get technical
9:55 am
support from state. >> i think tempo, we have vincent on a deployment now. her deployment will be close to nine months. that is not sustainable. we have right now the macon island those are the two big, i guess them -- she is on a deployment well over eight months. when sequestration hit us it was sudden. we stopped work on some of the projects in the ship yards. the bush just got back and she had a fairly long deployment. when you stopped work like you
9:56 am
did then, those on deployment stood to watch, we are trying to get these guys up and in the ship yards. they are up there on watch. they come home and now it is tear turn to go on deployments. theirs a longer while we get these guys back in. this is taking about two years. that's the kind of impact you have that has second and third order effects. it effects the nuclear carriers also. those are the public ship yards. those are the federal employees we hire. when you don't have a predictable budget when you do negotiations for the big deck with the private ship yards, they are not going to -- if you will, spool up to be ready in
9:57 am
time. you don't have the work orders done. this is all slowed down. we have another year. vincent will be out there about 8 1/2 months. of this longer deployments. when you get into the p 3, p 8, severing deployments, 6 1/2 months. my target is 7 months. i think that is sustainable with our people, our maintenance and our training. what we can provide which i think is reasonable and sensible, gives us that presence and the ability to react to spooal up and react as necessary. we need a stable budget. we need the current budget and time to bring the ship yard capacity to where it needed to be before. that's just how long this stuff takes in second or third order effects. with regard to taiwan, we have responsibilities with a treaty with them. we will honor those responsibilities. we have a process worked out
9:58 am
with our department of state as to how we interact and the both for human capital, if you will, intellectually and then exercise and what we can provide for assistance. we are living up to that. we are continuing with that and expect to do. >> it is the taiwan relations act. >> that is our commitment. >> let's take two more and see how we are doing on time. take them together if we could and then ask the admiral to wrap up. >> good morning, admiral. i'm the army fellow here at brookings. i want to ask you to talk a
9:59 am
little bit about your level of comfort or discomfort with an army that looks to be going well below 490, maybe 450 as the active force. i know yo >> you can take this last question here. you talked a lot about cooperation with china and i was hoping you could talk a little bit about the navy's goal for cooperation and capabilities of our ally and treaty partners in the asian pacific. >> i share concerns with regard to the sizing of the army because we are a supporting element of that in the joint force. what i mean by that is if we are going to resize any of the services, really the center piece of the land force, the
10:00 am
army, then what is the construct behind that? and what are we going to agree will be the limitations of our operations out there? and what is the tendency to do that? what has been in the past we have said we are not interested in doing this, that or the other thing. the world gets a vote and the size of stability operations because clear indicator is as we move anything from army armor out to hilos out to all of that we can -- we are the kind of fill in behind all of that. we are seeing all of that right now with operations in afghanistan. so i think we need to do this in a careful deliberate manner. we did our own right sizing of our personnel. it was 1%. we laid off 3% or 1%, 3,000
10:01 am
folks. the effect on morale and the trust factor was huge. so what we can expect collectively of any of our ground forces and any of our services to size the force yet make sure we maintain our trust i think is important and i think it is a joint issue that we all need to understand. so the size, the readiness, the psyche and the morale of the ground force is a joint issue we all ought to be deconcerned wit as we do this. i think in the asia pacific allies interaction i think the concept of collective self defense is a clear item that i'm watching and this is with japan. where that can take us, if it goes according to the plan set up by the japanese government then they can share with us in ballistic missile defense. it is defensive in nature.
10:02 am
they have all of the censors, weapons command and control that we have. next would be counter mind. very defensive, collective in that regard. required a little bit more coordination would be operating with our carrier strike group and assuming one of those missions of defense of the carrier strike groups. all of the rules of engagement for that and the caveats associated. korea, we will see where we want to go in that regard. that is a matter of what korea is comfortable with regarding coordinated operations especially at sea. right now it is very tentative as they are feeling their way through how much they would want to proceed in that regard. when it comes to missions i would say ballistic missile defense.
10:03 am
counter mind there are opportunities there. we have demonstrated the deterrent effect of coalition operations about two years ago where we did the international exercise and 20 something countries came and demonstrated their interest and their capability and their commitment to keeping the strait open. th it was a great deterrent effect and changed the behavior of the iranian navy. >> please everyone join me in thanking admiral.
10:04 am
tonight on c-span 3 american history tv with discussions on u.s. strategy in vietnam, the impact of the jazz age on modern america, america's role in the world and james madison's role in writing the u.s. constitution. throughout campaign 2014 c-span has brought you more than 130 candidate debates from across the country. tonight watch c-span's live
10:05 am
election night coverage to see who wins, who loses and which party will control the house and senate. our coverage begins at 8:00 p.m. eastern with results and analysis. you will see candidate victory and concession speeches. throughout the night and into the morning we want to hear from you with your calls, facebook comments and tweets. campaign 2014 election night coverage on c-span. next a conference on asia with a panel focusing on energy security discussing the challenges of today's environment, rising demand in costs and some of the alternative energy sources. the event previewed some of the issues on the agenda next week in burma and the asia pacific economic cooperation meetings. the center for strategic and international studies hosted this event. >> i know people are still coming in. it looks like they are getting coffee and coming in in a
10:06 am
second. our next panel is on energy security in asia. i think we all know the energy narrative picture in asia has changed very dramatically over the last decade at least in part because of the rapid economic growth. so we have two great -- four great panelists to join us here today and who will give us brief overviews of the situation from their perspective and then have a discussion involving the audience. so our first speaker is jonathan alkind the acting assistant secretary for international affairs at the department of
10:07 am
energy. jonathan, the floor is yours. thank you very much. >> thank you very much, murray. ladies and gentlemen, it is really a pleasure to be here at csis today. i see one of the dilemmas of having a beautiful new building is that the world outside you get reminders that the world outside is out there and a distraction it certainly is. it is in my view very fitting that we have this discussion about energy security in the asian frame at this time. and also in this place because between challenges and opportunities that one sees
10:08 am
emerging in asia and those that one sees emerging in the united states over the last several years, one could say that the two are the most dynamic pieces of the global energy scene at present. the united states and our companies have worked together with the countries and companies of asia on energy issues for quite a long time, nonetheless i think it is worth take ag step back and looking at kind of the current state of play in terms of context that provides the back drop to our discussion on this panel. in 1977 u.s. crude oil imports amounted to 67%. it rose as high as 70% a few years ago. dramatically then in the period of this new young century we
10:09 am
have seen an important change. in 2013 domestic crude oil production in the united states amounted to nearly 10 million barrels a day and it looks like now for the foreseeable future the imports of crude oil into the united states will be on a downward trend and not an upward trend that is true so very recently. in asia one sees dramatic growth in crude oil consumption and other energy consumption. according to adb, the asian development bank net oil imports in the asia pacific region will rise to more than 25 million barrels a day by 2035. that is close to the current crude oil output of the middle east. within that the international
10:10 am
energy asia foresees 75% by the same time period of 2035. these statistics i think are useful as framing on the oil side because they speak to the importance of investment and trade across boundaries and between different regions of the global energy world. one can see similar interesting changes happening in total demand. if you look at some of the data back to the 1970s. in 1977 the united states accounted for 31% of global oil consumption. today we see the orders of magnitude have roughly reversed with united states consuming roughly 30% of production.
10:11 am
so i won't go further into this context but i will just under score that whether one looks at coal with the dramatic rise of coal combustion in china and other asian countries or whether one looks at oil or natural gas with increasing global trade of liquefied natural gas one sees very, very dynamic growth all across asia. and that is an important back drop to our topic today. if i look from the u.s. perspective at how we are engaging with our partners in asia i would call out several different features. one is that the united states is committed to working with our partners, our friends, our
10:12 am
allies from around the globe to enhance energy security for all involved. in may of this year the g-7 energy ministers met in rome for the purpose of a renewed focus on energy security as an issue that had kind of receded from view for a period of time and then reemerged into the forefront of our focus. a second piece of the u.s. energy policy that i would emphasize at the outset is a focus on accelerating a transition to a low carbon economy. in june of last year president obama rolled out his climate action plan which calls for important steps that will significantly alter over a long horizon the profile of u.s. energy consumption and use.
10:13 am
in addition the president's climate action plan called for steps to make our energy systems and our economy more broadly significantly more resilient to a changing climate because this is the reality that we already are experiencing. and, third, we are engaging with international partners on this agenda, as well. let me give just a couple of examples before i close. one, in the context of apec the united states has worked very closely with partners from all around the asia pacific region focusing on energy development, energy security and energy sustainability. for example, the energy working group under apec is pursuing now goals of reducing energy
10:14 am
intensity by 45% across all of the economies of apec. by 2035 based on 2005 levels doubling the share of renewable energy in the apec economies energy mix by 2030. and collaborating on the phase out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. in the international energy agency which counts among members several asian partners. the membership of the iea has been seeking to increase our engagement with other nonmember countries across asia. one particular example that i would give in this context are the conversations about a new form of a nonmember affiliation
10:15 am
between iea and key partners including china and india. this is the idea still under development of an association relationship between those non-members and iea. this is motivated by our general sense, again, that the dynamism in the asian energy context is one that calls for significantly increased engagements. we are also working bilaterally with important partners all across asia. i will not, in view of time, go into details here. i will simply highlight three -- well, let's call it four in view of prime minister mody's visit this week, four key relationships that matter deeply to the united states in the energy arena. one is with india where earlier this week there were a series of announcements about new initiatives. a second is with china.
10:16 am
indeed, when the apec summit occurs in about six weeks time it is reasonable to expect that, again, energy will be an important part of that conversation and certainly in the bilateral meeting that president obama will have we expect the same. japan has been for years a very, very important partner to the united states all across the waterfront in terms of different technology spaces, in terms of policy collaborations, energy efficiency, the gamut from one to the other. last but not least our collaborations with republic of korea are i would say also an important piece of our bilateral work. so i will stop here and hope that i have been able to provide at least a point of departure from the u.s. perspective.
10:17 am
the core point i would emphasize is the following. in a time when one sees a great deal of dynamism in the energy context of the united states we are focused very, very closely on the fact that the dynamism in the asian energy economies is the other prevailing reality. we applaud this. we want to work closely with asian partners. i would be happy to take any questions that you all may have after the other speakers have finished. thank you very much. >> thanks for that very helpful overview. our second speaker is the director general of natural resources in the fuel department in the agency for natural resources and energy in japan's ministry of economy and trade. previous to this job he served
10:18 am
in brussels where he worked to improve cooperation between the eu and japan. he is a graduate of georgetown university. >> thanks. it is my pleasure to be here in front of you to explain our view on the energy security in asia. i am very happy to come back here after 22 years after graduating georgetown university. as you well know the energy security is an important issue in any country. in the case of asia the asian countries have a very good mixture of supply and
10:19 am
consumption. at the same time you have we have faced several challenges. the first one is the increase in the oil import in the future and secondly we are facing the high price of gas especially energy. this means that we have some difficulty in the best utilizing natural gas. the third one is how we can make those two challenges compatible so the energy [ inaudible ] especially in the case of coal.
10:20 am
and at the current situation the biggest challenge is how to respond to the energy demand. from the view point of the primary energy supply we have a very good mixture of oil, gas and coal and so on. but as to the energy we see that rapid increase of demand, electricity, some predictions say that during this coming two decades that demand of electricity will increase by 100%. but at the same time we need to secure the environment. that's why we need to encourage those asian countries to utilize
10:21 am
some kind of less coal options like nuclear or renewable energies. this is the very common idea at which are shared to encourage low coal options to asian countries. but at the same time if we see the energy [ inaudible ] or economic growth still for many asian countries coal has some advantage in those -- from those points of view. that's why according to the iea's prospect at this moment the portion is 70% of total electricity supply and it will still more than half in the year
10:22 am
2013. in other words, the total electricity demand on coal will increase by 80% during this coming 20 years. to reduce the dependency on coal is one of the very common for the u.s. and japan. but as i mentioned the initial approach is to encourage them to utilize nuclear gas or renewable energy. but at the same time they are facing some concern on financial or security and so on especially in the case of gas we are facing the high price of natural gas. that's why the gas is not a very good option for east asian countries and also nuclear and
10:23 am
renewable will cost a lot. that's why to reduce the dependency on coal is the best option for u.s. and japan but maybe more pragmatically to reduce the co 2 emission is the second best option and the very big challenge for us. and to reduce the co 2 reduction mainly realized by the improvement of efficiency of electricity generation. and in the current situation the most advanced technology is also super critical which has more than 45% energy efficiency. it is almost 20% better than the
10:24 am
very traditional coal power plants. it means we can reduce co 2 emission by 20% by introducing a very high efficient. at the same time such kind of high tech, high efficient cost a lot. in the case of critical it takes almost 1.4 billion u.s. dollars to introduce those kinds. it is almost 40% more expensive compared to the very conventional. and also, if we compare the total cost, for example, by 40 years time the total cost is almost the same in the case of
10:25 am
super critical. that is why this should be financed by some ways. that is why we need to encourage the asian countries to introduce as high as possible technology concerning coal power plants. and by doing so we can avoid some deployment of low efficient coal power plants which may be supported by finance taken by [ inaudible ]. it will be reduced by 20% at most. and in this situation the very
10:26 am
important function for japan is falling. first of all, we have a very high efficient operation especially with ultrasuper critical with very big strength of operational technique and also the maintenance technique which enables to maintain the high efficiency rate for a long time. it is very important point. also, we are investing a lot to the next generation technology like igcc or igsc. in addition to that, we have made a lot of effort in cooperation with the u.s. government or u.s. partners in the area of utilization.
10:27 am
to share these recognition is very important and already in the end of august or in the end of last month japan [ inaudible ] related to introduction of clean coal technology. we see in the future the demand on energy will increase but we need to have a very strong concern on the environmental issues. that's why we need to have some solution to make both challenges compatible by introducing several measures including the encouragement of deployment of
10:28 am
[ inaudible ]. >> thank you very much. that was very helpful. our third speaker is an energy economist. they have a very long name longer than csis, economic research institute for asean and east asia. he does work here on energy security, coal technology, power infrastructure connections, et cetera. he is a graduate of an economic development and policies. >> thank you. ladies and gentlemen, very good morning. i'm so delighted to be here having the opportunity to speak with you about asia in terms of energy security. i would like to start off by saying several challenges so
10:29 am
that we will give you a clear picture of why i derive conclusion. the way asia is thinking and u.s. and europe have slightly different perspectives. that's why i want to start off by telling what we are facing so that the conclusion will be understood by many participants here. as you see that asia is growing in terms of economic growth. that is exciting given the economic growth. but that growth comes with many challenges that includes the rising of energy demand. the rising of energy demand is not a good news that we have to curb those energy demands by various measures. and also, with the growing population just has 3.3 billion population. and imagine how many population
10:30 am
in terms of energy access particularly for electricities. so in terms of energy demand in the region actually by today, by now until 2035 for asean and east asia it will grow up to 8,500 million ton. in terms of energy perspective an enormous issue is how we secure reliability energy in terms of affordable price by signaling how much can provide access. to say that i think the issue we are facing is providing energy access and keep energy securities and also the issue to keep economic growth. so another point is we are at
10:31 am
the cross road that we -- so how actually asia perspective and position in terms of energy security. i think it depends on how you look at energy security [ inaudible ] in the energy mix in asia you see that among energy you have fuel, you have coal, renewable and others. but coal has played a significant and important role in striving economic growth in east asia. to say that u.s., not america, enjoying coal in the past to keep u.s. by now until you have a gas that can push another [ inaudible ] but we are not
10:32 am
really enjoying the sale north america has enjoyed because it is four or five times. we don't have infrastructure and connectivities like in north america and pipeline connectivity. our production actually is very low but will be mostly by 31% of import. as you look at energy in terms of coal, coal has a greater say in energy mix, more than 50% by 2035. so with energy security perspective that one needs to have a reliable delivery and affordable price. so in terms of supply stability for asian is very good. so by australia having very reliable price and supply in the
10:33 am
region. so in that regard coal remains very strategic importance for energy security. i think when we are coming to strike the balance between how we are concerning the way the coal has been burning currently and the practice actually for emerging economy and poor countries they are burning coal because of the current power plants has low efficiency. but the variety of options there including these clean coal technologies. by introducing clean coal technologies you can burn coal more efficiently and saving fuel and minimizing operation and maintenance costs. but the key issue is the up front cost investments are higher compared to low efficient coal power plants.
10:34 am
and currently there is a variety of technology there. currently japan having the high efficiency coal power plant and china is emerging but i think there is struggle in terms of how reliable are the power plants. so in that regard asean also expressed interest in high efficient coal power plant. we are not able to afford that up front cost. with that regard my institute where i come from we conduct these comparison of the economic return in terms of different types of clinical technologies and we found that by using ultrasuper critical power plant it really provides a very good return in terms of economic and environmental benefit just within 25 timeframe period and in terms of provide electricity and cheaper in terms of cost of
10:35 am
electricity. so that really provides strong recommendation to east asia. asean afford this kind of high efficient technology coal power plant which is the current technology and why not able to access technology. with that context i would say that this deployment of clean coal technologies are urgent to support that if the asean cannot afford that they can afford lower cheaper technologies that could be so many years before it can change. there must be international in that regard to support asean to afford clean coal technology. particularly would be a public financing because those up front costs will be -- any company
10:36 am
difficult to [ inaudible ] public financial support on clean coal technologies. and with that regard i think it's very crucial role, support that in the absence of the public financing on clean coal technology imagine that not all companies are ready to invest in a lower cost and also less efficient. so more are likely to afford those. current efficient technology are available and we are not able to afford it. so in that regard i would like to stress that any of these public financial support will make asean [ inaudible ] in that regard otherwise we find a brown economy in the future. with that i will stop and take questions later on. thank you very much. >> thanks.
10:37 am
our fourth speaker dating cleanup is michael lifeman. he is direct's ge power and water's long term power generation forecasting. prior to working for ge michael led the modeling efforts at the u.s. department of energy's office of energy renewable energy. i think michael wants to use a powerpoint. >> thank you for hosting and convening this interesting and important day. while the powerpoint is being open i should say i noticed i was the odd man out and the only one bringing slides and the representative from microsoft didn't bring a powerpoint. i appaologize in advance to the
10:38 am
folks on my left. i will echo some of the remarks said about energy mix. i might have a few different conclusions. i will talk a little bit about energy security through energy diversity and will focus on the power sector. i'm not going to talk about transportation oil. this is power sector. first thing i'm showing is that -- this is the mix of capacity across asia. this includes china, india, australia. you can see the brown there, the big wedge on the right has increased substantial percentage. looks like my percentages aren't totally visible. you can see that the percentage currently at the end of 2013 is slightly more than 50% coal. the green box in the middle there at 5% is the renewables. the 2% in red is the nuclear. you can see that our projections for the following ten years show beginning of the reversal of the
10:39 am
trend for the last ten years. a lot of this is because of china. the great run up in coal and china influences the entire energy picture. some of that begins to reverse. there is more nuclear. there is more wind. there is more solar. there is a gas that holds itself own. now, across the different economies in asia, the growth varies and they have different reasons for that. different priorities, for example on nuclear in japan which is still figuring out what will happen to the plants that are now off line. versus the economies that are seriously considering nuclear as part of the future. you can see huge increases in the rates of solar and wind, for example. across the economies, over 700% growth over the next decade. where as coal still growing, but not nearly as quickly as some of the other options.
10:40 am
and again, a strong push for increasing role of gas across many asian economies. now, to get to this point, to get to an energy system or power system that has more diversity in it and less cole in it, there a number of challenges that economies will face. the first is as was mentioned, the fuel price. you can see on the left of these various bars, the coal price across the region. i have representative economies that is lower than both the diesel price and the gas price. the second bar is the price in 2024. the difference between $2 gas and $14 gas in malaysia or $4 and $16 in japan. these are enormous differences.
10:41 am
getting away from coal is going to depend on required -- require concerted and long-term actions. another challenge is a really huge increase in electricity demand and all of the infrastructure cost. you need to build the transmission. you need to build the terminals. there is a lot that needs to be built. despite that huge growth, by the end of the following ten years, we still don't see the same energy access across asia that we see in japan or certainly not in the united states. for example, by 2024, despite the really unfathomable increases in electricity demand, they will have 2/3 for japan today to say nothing of asian or india.
10:42 am
huge gaps would remain even after the coming decade of growth. there even more challenges. how will japan replace the nuclear fleet that won't return. in japan there is very high tariffs for wind. wind producers get incentive to produce, but there is arduous three or four years as opposed to taking a wind plant up. in korea, you have strong wind. china has lots of new policies to discourage or prohibit in some cases the citing new coal plants in the coastal provinces. many of the technologies require an enormous amount of water and pressure from agriculture and general scarcity. we were talking about issues.
10:43 am
grid topology. this is something i think people don't quite appreciate. it's hard to power an island if you don't have somewhere from which to move power in. you have to have more plants available to provide reliable power. transmission connections across islands or gas connections is difficult. then in the non-island for china, it's these vast expanses. huge transmission lines. financing and we talked about how hard it is to build a heavy capex plant. the long-term operation for the plant get worse if you have got and if you have dollars and nominated fuels and local currency is weaker against that dollar, the cost of buying fuel overtime gets harder and harder. okay, so ge is a technology company and the solutions i'm going to present are mainly technology solutions, but so one way forward is more gas and more efficient use of that gas.
10:44 am
so the chart i am showing on the left is the increase in the natural gas supply in china over ten years. it's about a three-fold increase and how are they getting there? some is pipeline from places like this and some of that is increasing likhovtseva wiified natural gas. they purchase from all parts of the world. some of that is conventional gas and their own tight hands. more gas through china and similar, but not as dramatic for asean. there is a technology story which is that in addition to the super critical coal, the gas plants are for those who are using both the gas and the steam turban. twice as efficient as a coal plant. the very latest newest and most efficient is from us.
10:45 am
it's called the ha combined cycle. a 61% efficiency that was almost unthinkable. this is a dramatic improvement in how efficiently we can use gas. next slide, please. another way forward, this is something i think is really going to lead to dramatic changes in asean. they talked about the lack of infrastructure for gas. one of the ways that countries are beginning to get around is a virtual pipeline. what does it mean? instead of the route where you have got an actual pipeline on a huge tanker and humongous regasification facility for your l and g, you have a smaller l and g with compressed natural gas or small l and g. if you can see it, you can put it in a box and in a truck and you can use roads and barges to
10:46 am
get it to where you need to get it without building the pipeline. if you are not committed to one pipeline, you have much more flexibility in how to get from origin to destination. it provides a new degree of flexibility. we have an mou to develop virtual pipelines and we just commissioned the fuelled island power plant and about a 35% savings versus deals. incredible change in how gas is going to be delivered. the scale of course is quicker. it's months instead of years to get these things done. it displaces these with lots and lots of advantages. some of the engines that can use the gas can also use biogas. with all of the biomass resources, we are talking about
10:47 am
the remote islands in particular. you can use them and gasify them and put them in the engines. flexible power solutions and modular or small. post the tragedy of fukushima, you can't think of nuclear without questioning how it will be safe. one of the new technologies that ge has available is the economic simplified boiling water reactor. it's not much less of a mouthful, but it's now the safest reactor and just about a week ago passed another review by the u.s. nuclear regulatory commission. it cools for seven days which is twice as good as the competitor and simpler in that there far fewer components. you don't need the steam generators and you need fewer things that can fail. fewer systems in total. you need 20% fewer staff.
10:48 am
all these advantages to nuclear that i think we need to consider rather than writing it off entirely. lastly, in terms of the solutions, wind designed for land constrained environment. that's 2.85 mega watts per turbine. that's a big turbine. the idea is that if you have a land constrained environment, you have a lot of power. this is made for japan and it could be transferred with minor modifications and the land constrained environments. i think that's it for the wind slide and that's it. thanks very much for your time. [ applause ] >> thanks, michael. as a layman and not an energy
10:49 am
expert, one of the questions that emerges when i listen to the different presentations, it suggested that there is a lot of nifty technology out there that is a lot cleaner than what we are using now. dr. hans says we would like that clean technology but we can't afford it. my question really for any of you and particularly for jonathan, whether you know of financing for emerging economies in asia that want to buy cleaner even if it's coal, cleaner burning technology but can't afford it? is there credit out there? >> in the case of japan, japanese investment bank is now supplying some financial support
10:50 am
touation countries to introduce high efficient coal power plants. and also we have many more schemes to help the countries in asia to deploy low carbon technologies. >> speaking from the u.s. perspective, this is a tricky landscape in a lot of different ways. first of all, the technology landscape itself is never static. one of the things we spend a great deal of time and focus on with the u.s. department of energy in the technical collaborations we have with international partners and with industry domestically in the united states, it's on technology development and coming down the cost curve. you can see if you look at some
10:51 am
of the different technologies across the energy landscape, how dramatic the progress has been. you see massive reductions, for example, in onshore wind and solar pv. the same is starting to happen in concentrated solar power. the opportunities of today and tomorrow are not and there is a -- tomorrow are not identical, point one. point two, there is a strategy issue that is an important one to grapple with when it comes to coal technology. the united states understands that coal will be a part of the global energy mix.
10:52 am
it is a part of the mix of the united states, although today's share of coal in our total fuel mix is significantly reduced from that which it was as little as years ago. you have seen a drop from where it has been 50% of the fuel mix today and it a couple of years ago in response to the realtime movement of natural gas prices in the u.s. where a very surprising thing happened where you had coal and natural gas representing roughly equal shares for a short time, about 32% of our fuel mix. so we expect that coal will be a part of the fuel mix going forward both in the united states and elsewhere. but then there is what technologies. this has been certainly true as they have both underscored, that all things being equal, it is
10:53 am
preferable to have higher efficiency coal technologies in the market place. there is no question about that. the u.s. perspective is that the use of public finance to support non-carbon capture technologies in the market place is not something that we feel is appropriate. why? because as the iea's energy technology perspective's document that was just released in the summer, they stated and will quote because it's a very appropriate distillation of the issue, the rise in coal use with without the deployment of ccs technology is fundamentally incompatible with our climate change objectives. this is the dilemma we are trying to find a way to manage. they do not support the broad
10:54 am
use of public finance through multilateral or bilateral sources. we do have an exception to that rule which is for the least developed east developed economies and this is a choice to try to put emphasis on moving that technology frontier, incenting the emergence of carbon capture technology into the market place as we are doing in our own market. from that seeing cost change so that technology is broadly affordable. opening it up to questions. >> i just would like to have --
10:55 am
i respect the idea in terms of how public finance and how we had to subsidize on coal things. i think perhaps we have to stick to reality in terms of foreseeable future that in terms of our prediction in terms of coal power plant it continues to rise. i think in that regard, in terms of climate change and others i think we have shared the same concern and interests. let's analyze this reality and scenario carefully. the lack of public finance, east asia will find the financing system, but that financing system will link to less efficient coal power plant. i think the scenario is which one actually are you going to take? let's say super power like u.s. concern on environmental issue, i think carefully analyze the scenario because asean going to
10:56 am
end up in power plant for future in that regard they are seeking for the current available technologies for better environment but lack of [ inaudible ] i fully agree but we have to stick to reality. we need to have support to make sure that until they have something break through in terms of technology east asia cannot afford. as i stated already that this excitement in u.s. about shale gas, asia does not enjoy at all. in terms of energy security gas demand is continuing [ inaudible ] in terms of energy mix coal is more reliable and provides energy access to billions of people that do not have access to electricity. coal the most thing they are going to build up more power plants. in that regard i still think to
10:57 am
public financing to be more realistic and provide better environmental issue. i do not -- i just want to share my concern. thank you. >> please introduce yourself. >> i'm nancy tom for the endowment for international peace. i have to follow-up on the previous question. they are like the world bank and being more reluctant with coal power plant. i was wondering if others might actually step into public financing like chinese financier or like the newly established breaks and the aiip. i would like to hear your opinions on that. >> our concern is that the
10:58 am
japanese concern is that if there is no public support from world bank or something like that then the other organizations like aiib may have some opportunity to finance those projects. in such a case if those new institutions have the same discipline focusing only on the high efficient coal power plant then it's okay. if they have no discipline, financing every new project. that will be increased. we hope that they are encouraged and the open countries to deploy


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on