tv Bill Kristol at Politics Eggs Breakfast CSPAN June 7, 2018 2:55pm-3:47pm EDT
something incredible for the world. and it's my honor to be involved. thank you very much. thank you. thank you. [ applause ] >> secretary of state mike pompeo holds a briefing at the white house this afternoon. we'llave live coverage of his remarks scheduled for 3:45 eastern here on c-span3. >> while we wait for that to get under way, we'll show you a discussion on the 2020 esal race with bill kris
ol of the weekly standard this was at the pill particulars and eggs breakfast at the manchester, new hampshire counsel. it's about an hour. >> i w welcome you all t as you all know politics and eggs is not just forolical candidates. over the years we've hosted a variety of national mediafigus experience kmen tating on presidential politics. today we are delight go to welcome billhris toll the founder and editor at large of the weekly standard, influential journal ofnd pol ideas located in washington d.c. bill began his political career working on the senateampaign raniel pckahan in 1976. i was m high school. d allen keys i98. ooer as of
staff to sectary of education bill bennett,ing dur the reagan administration. and later ashi of staf to vice president dan quayl the first bush administration. before starting the weekly an in 1995, mr. kris toll led the project for the republican future where he helped shape the strategy that produced the 1994 republican congressional ctory. falty at harvard university kennedy school of government and the department of political science at the university of pennsylvania. nging f p shed widely in areas constitutional law to political philosophy. he is a regular commentator on abc this week and special election coverage as as ppearing on other political shows. adnistrati alook eager to hear th year's midterms as well as
the 2020 presidential election. so please join me in offering a warmme welco to anks ste, it'sre to be here with. i want to thank the council at saint ance em. it's great to be back. i've only been here, i think fox s headquartered here the last couple of primaries, right, and i was part of the fox team, so at least8, 2012, and 2016 and really loved coming here during the day. it's such a beautiful campus and great hospitality. graduate told the saint anselm is in the playoffs i should congratulate them. maybe shoor office alrdy learnew to suck up to everyone in new
hampshire. find every obscure sport. no offense to women's soba. every new hampshire rident rtan don aething it isny we drove over frome vil beut my memories, it's so lovel of driving in n hampshire, mostly, i spent a summer 30 years ago a really loved it, but mostly december, january, memories and a lot of them pregps and renting a carat logan and driving on these backoads 10:30 at night at some political rally without gps and ways. i guess you don't believe in signs. there are ex-elecellent signs a about this big. and lights on the road so i've been lost many times in new hampshire. and of course december, january,
there is no snow or ice or anything so it' bu iic tbethe summer. so maybe you should move the primary to the mmer. i shouldn't joke about that. i feel like i should profess my deep allegiance to the primary how important, it's in the had a wonderful summer here, but that was a few decades agohe of thee in keen, house-sir someone at summer house there on a lake, it was really beautiful. i used to come up some when i taught at the kennedy school for n and taught at s after grad harvard from '83 to '85 i was token professor there. it's useful when students get out and have to get a job or something like that. after i've always used to look
for boston up to new mpshire, which hadtive politics. you would elect moderate democrats and republicans, very diversity of senators and congressman and women. and i was thinking how different it was from cambridge massachusetts where i lived. in '84 it was 8th congressional district then. tip o'neil was our congressman.. revered figure. obviousln the district. totally democratic district. it had been john kennedy 30 years before and they were proud of that. to give you a sense, i remember voting in '84, and i voted for reaganreeionhepresency, f havin worked in monaghan in '76 last democrat i worked for, we'll see what happens in the next few years. i'll go full circle.
if there was mormon a habr br democr i would do that. i wro for the republican candidate sherry running against kerry. i'll interrupt to say i ran into then senator kerry, and after lo presidential campaign, so this must have bee 6.and we we. and he remembered, being good politician, vaguely that i had some massachusetts connection and sort of hva connection, said weren't you there at some point, when i was maybe lieutenant governor. i said, yes, actually i remember you coming, and i was at some dinner with him in a large d i w your first senate race '84. and he sort of beamed. and i said of course i voted against you. and maybe you are not aware of this but john kerry does not
have a great sense of humor. so i said, yknow, he looked at me, and i said i mean it was nothing personal. i was just a republican. won the race by 12 points or something. and he looked at me and said, bill, you know my oppont not very ll qlified for the position. gee, lighten up, senator kerry, you know. then of course as a loyal republican, at this point, i voted for the opponent tip o'neil, the congressional level, even though it was hopeless. and i remember the next morning susan, this is prern obvisly, so knew from tv and radio reagan had won ankerry had won but i remember asking my wife, what happened in the congressional race in the district, i'm curious how many votes the republican running against him got. ta l and said, ie hate to tell you this, there was
republican running against tip o'neil. and i said you know i know i voted for someone against tip. it turned out i had voted for the communist. it's a true story,actuly. it cauroub i went to bill bennett called me and i went to work for him in the reagan administration and i remember the iview iad with the white houoffi, need to you are for the president, and it was the old executive building across the driveway from thehi house and i remember going inthe in tnking trying to break the ice i was at the kennedy sch a deb reagt popular. have course voted against kerry. and i said laughingly i tried to
vote against tip o'neil but i by mistake vote for communi and they held up myppor threeonth m they had to get me through for some junior job. but that's why it was okay, it wasn't okay to vote for communists. let me give you sense where we are which is hard to know in these fluid times. my first point would be these really are fluid unpredictable times. i don't thi anyone else was standing here in may of 2014, i guess that would be the equivalent in the last cycle, that one would have predicted donald trump would be the republican nominee for president let alone the next president. people might have predict the hillary clinton would have been the nominee but wouldn't have predict predict predicted bernie sanders would have got a lot of the vote.
sanders beat her 60/40, something likethat. so this a good reminder how hard it is t predict politics. i was thinking about this paul ryan was in the news attempted coup against him and steve hayes, in 2012, huge pretty big fans of ryan, very pleased with romney helped him in the vp pick, but we thought it was appropriate begin prags appropriate generational transfer. ryan was man eaoon enti spending which you neeto te the deficit and deal with the debt which is indeed got house republicans behind that and seem to neutralize it, which is the best you can do if you want to restrain spending on those entitlements. just a moderate on hot topic
like mitigation. so pleased when romney took him a leader over the party nin the next generation. if you told me paul ryan would be retiringe with a very difficult i would say last year or two as ear on one hand, an and donald trump who in the summer of 2012 just come off six month campaigno b certificate, he wasn't the key person, but nutty, distasteful, i would say conspiracy theory about the president of the united states. and he was so controversial in 2012, when rom nye acceptedis endorsen like ten minutes, kind of very awkward little thing, you know, people like me said well did he even have to give trump that kind of
degree of legiti. and people said itoe'talmatter,. that's where trump was in 2012. now he's president of the united thk this is particularly happy ory for t republican party, this ark of the last six year but it is a good reminder of how fastndracally, really, change. and ohi'll f donald trund't owthis, but i'm not a big fan ofis, is he wasn't fatalistic. he didn't listen to people like me who said we always have candidates like trump, these business types, they do okay in the early, 20% of the vote sometimes in new hampshire, but then they fade or the pat buchanan types who run on nat i havei haveist -- nativist. and he ran. and iemember some of the smart washington consultants should pullut and not run so much in
one otwo states because then he has to manage expectations. this was in fact cruz and other people listened to them. right. and didn't fight hard in new hampshire and ended up, tnk realized at the time was ridiculous. but trump ignored all that. he ran every where. he didn't win every state but enoughmha for sure and won the nomination. so it's a good reminder, something to be said for just having the nerve to do it and having theerve to ignore conventional wisdom and having the nerve not to over think everything with all these political consultants that give you advice here and there. having said that i don't personally think it's a great thing for the countryt s the republican nominee or that he's y have to give him creditor . sohas going to happen? so having said that, who knows what's going to happen sincee wouldn't have gotten this right in 2014. i guess my bottom line would be
things are much more fluid and up in the air than we e. you look at a snapshot, it looks like trump is strong with republicans. if you look at his approval, it's slight up tick two or three base held aos huge of e d his voters that voted for him but that wasn't majority of the country. he picked up almost no one who vote for him. so certain way it's a pretty at sick situation. conventional wisdom would be and latest poll shows he would be a bit of an upper dog for 2020, but not hopeless. 2018 probably goes against the incumbent party. if one party controls both the house and congress they tend to do badly. so that's kind of the conventional view. but trump strong in republican
party. and we'll have another normal looking youight say presidential election. t i'm not so sure that's the ca. meank under -- people our age in a sense we've gone through the last 24 years, we've had three eight-year presidencies. won, challenger, in the case of clinton, bush, obama, ty wo they gotre-elected. no primary challenge to any of them. clinton in '96. or bush in '04. not having any challenges helps you get elected. they all did. congress goes back and forth. we had drama last 24 years, in a certain way it was surprisingly stable time in american politics. once the republicans won the house and layiequali fid a certain way
lookgac '92 on really kind of a predictable oscillation between the two parties. three eight-year terms. only other time it happened was adams and founding. hasn'happened since. and we tend to think presidents get renominated. you have another election. looks not that different from the first e. maybe the president picks up a int oroses a point or two. usually gets re-elected. but think backinut to earlier, not ancient era in american politics,960 to 1980, where you have a close presidential election '60 very conventional kennedy against nixon, vice president against rising senator, then you have chs in politics. gold water destroys the eastern establishment of control in the republican party in '64.
wins a big upset. people forget how much of an upset it was at the time to win the nomination.but getclobbered johnson who is allegedly now on top of the world. democrats. is the republican party going to survive? but things don't go so well for johnson and has a terrible year '66 by mccarthy who was not ad well-known figure. he was more junr senator from moins hubert humphrey. he was an eloquent guy. but it wasn't like mccary was a gian of the democratic party. but he ran, others didn't. he got 42% of the vote in new ire. bobby kennedy got in three days
unfortunat kennedy assassinated. but down. nixon of all people comes back as republican nominee having allegedly been finished off by his i '62 governor's re in california after losing in '60. nixon squeaks to a victory. george wallace wins five states actually in '68. revolution of the democratic party and they take over the party in '72 with wins the primary, party goes much more to the left as reach goes more to the right under gold water. nixon crushes mcgovern. so nixon second term doesn't and he's of office in 18 months. jerald ford takes over in '76 reagan almost beats ford demrats nominate totly
obscure senator of georgia, democrats in 2020 would nominate, i don't know, he was betterown, b two-term governor, but less central to american politics. first evangelical candidate and wins a race in '76 barely hangso eat f carter becomes president. rocky presidency. challenges carter. carter hangs on on the democrat side and reg era allegedly is too old comes back and wins in shire, actually. new mn, think of those 20 years. that is different era of presidents. primary in '68, 76, '80.
incumbent presidents having huge ve of fortune. that's also a certain pattern, you might say, of american politics. and i have the feeling that we are now entering appeared more like that, one hopes without the violence, and the assassinations, buurbulent era. so that thehey nominating second place finisher to the next presidential nomination,ay t the besy to select your nominee always,ut they were were, republicans. democrats form love. republicans form a line. and they would always have this little bit of a fling with someone interesting, and it was always romney or whatever,
democrats weren't that m exti. my friend john ker andl gore. '0a aharbger.rospect obama in first upset of hillary clinton, first upset on both sides when you think back, really to carter. not that each of the other eltis were semi predictable who the nominee would be or at least the nominee was a very tor o governor.dknn former vice president, something like that. whereas obama upsetting hillary clinton was pretty astounding in '08. and aittle hint what was to come, in terms ofoter being sufficiently willing to take gamble to not reward experience, to not go for the next in line on the republican side with trump. so i think we are in a new era. maybe some historians will say
2017 or some will say obama was for taste of it. so much volatile era. so i would say don't assume people my age looking through the '90s and 2000 kind of predictable don't assume those really think it's an unusual moment. you can think a lot ofnc ofha trump being prent is the main evidence. but voters are much more open to different messages. and the world of course is a complicated unpredictable place. foreign poll sismt economy. investigation going on now whose result is unknown. so the number of variables that could shock the system is really i think pretty le talk a trump and the republicans because i know the republicans a little better than the democrats and i have an interest in the republicans.
so i would like to s a republican party that trump party or isn't led by trump or doesn't refle trumpism in many important ways. right now trump is popular obviously among republicans. he's held his approval, increased it a little bit as president. but i think it's overstated. i mean, a, it's a snapshot and things could change. you have to ask yourself is the economy going to get better than it is for trump. is foreign policy, right now we haven't really had any of the big crisis we might have had. so far it's been kept undut control. is that going to continue for the next year, year and a half, and of course the investigation. those all seem to have down side risk for trump than upside. i don't see the environment getting much better for donald trump over the next year or two unless you accelerate economic growth and even more have unemployment cnore or have a wonderful deal where kim
jong-un denuclearizes or something. so i think risk is greater for trump. it' very fluid situation. newe out this morning that confirms what other polls say dramatically. trump has about 85% approval over republicans. half of that approval is strongly approves. so that's 40%. half of those people somewhat e oftrump, they are typically people who didn't vote for trump in the primary in 2016. they are people who voted for theeneral election because he wa better than hillary clinton and judges and tax policy and sort of thought we can handle down side of trump. people still would probably sa well, they do say when aed by polsters, i somewhat approve of trump. i'm okay with some of the policies. better than having historillary
clinton. i don't like some of his critics but that's a judgment for now. a lot of that is a retrospective judgment. judgment people n struck by this, it's all about, well, would you prefer hillary? and what about gorsuch and the tax bill? which is all fine, but those are nelhis that h re an me tth, 28, the day after election day this year, when the story or the question, republicans, and state like this, republicans and independents, have to face is, do you want four more years. it becomes a prospective question, not a retrospective question. that's something i think the polls have a difficulty capturing. it's a different question that voters have to ask themselves in 2019 than they have to ask themselves in 2018. 2018 is still about, did you feel okay about your vote in 2016. 2019 is who do you want in 2020. and you all in new hampshire
have experience of how fluid that can be and people can emerge from quite far behind and suddenly be challengers to what seemed like very formidable front runners. and i think that could happen in 2019, 2020, on the republican side. i think people are under estimating how big a pivot we have on november 7, 2019. if you look at the poll t came out this morning, trump loses to a democrat 2020, it may not be accurate. he was losing to hillary clinton before that ection. but it's interesting, by 38 to 50, 38% of republicans want a primary challenge to trump. doesn't mean that vote for the person but at like see a challenger give them a choice. that includes 32% of those who
voted for trump, against about 53, and it's 32-54 those who approve of trump. so it is possible to say i approve of trump maybe not strongly but mewhat but also like to have maybe a choi, lete see who it is, in 2020, that's different from trump. that is not an impossible thing for a voter t in h or read. you d't have to be an ever trumper to not be on board for eight years of trump. and you can tell yourself, this would be legitimate. oectedhings in useful ways and made good appointments got some decent policies out of it, but four more years of this chaos and he's older and maybe we sort of pocket our gai in 2020 so to eak a try to find a younger candidate who can bring t party together, bring the country together. one of the things that focus groups really d is how unhappy most americans are, including trump supporters, with the divisiveness and the sense of bitterness and everything is
always hyper partisan fight and a personal fight and a fight in which you demean yourpponents. americans really don't like that tagain, primary challenger who could offer a way forward from that. primary challenger who would win probably wouldn't sound like me, couldn't be attacking trump all the time, but really more of ha kind of we need to move on beyond trump sort of message. then you have to see what happens in the world, obviously, and how trump looks in terms much his performance on the ecom and fort these numbersea incidentally are for republicans. and state like new hampshire where independents can vote, his numbers aren't strong with independents. and some chunk of those independents will vote in the republican prima. and there is more openness to a nontrump candidate. so i think the static look, which right now trump is pretty strong. and right now trump wins is a little bit like right now bus beats mccain and right now gary
ha a who has heard of jimmy rt. the numbers than people think. i don't know if a challenger would succeed. from my point of view it would be good to have one to force a debate. if trump were to lose in 2020, it would allor someone to step up hs a different way forward instead of redoing trump in the next several years. matt dual historian had a good sunday piece pointing out primary challenges ranging from kennedy to reagan would be the best example of this, but mccarthy also in '68, even if they didn't win, they sort of showed a path forward for the party that was different from the candidate who won but then lost the general election. if trump does get renominated, what happens?
could there be an independent candidate? that's something i looked at quite a lot in 2016 after it became clear trump was going to be the nominee? who knows. i think if you had trump and you had sanders or maybe elizabeth warren there is more opening for an independent candidate than there has bee for a long time in american polic and i would say just having gone through this a little bit in 2016, conventional view that it's impossible, voters are so used to voting for one of the two parties, that's less true than people think. the money can by you ballot access. voters are increasingly not disloyal you might say or not too loyal to the two parties. younger voters think of themselves as much more independent than older voters who voted republican or democrat for 20 or 30 years. so the rightan i think could, you could imagine, independent candidacy in a trump world. but i think the primary, for
someone like me who would be interested in saving the republican party tan conservative moment, which partly has contributed a fair amount to america, the key would be teer at least a seriou cengeo trump isn't possible. and i guess my view is that it's more possible than people think. and again i would take inspiration almost from trump's own example who pulled off something in 2015, 2016 that coul'tso if he c do it, why cout someone else do it? again, it's very different running as incumbent. he can talk about the swamp all he wants antique the institutions of governmentn a way that i think is pretty irresponsible and damaging. a tweet this morning about the deep criminal state. criminal deep state in america. you know, i think i read about that in no om chomsky, i spent
time arguing, now wave an american president, allegedly conservative president, our institutions of government, fbi and justice departmen as criminaltate. that's pretty astonishing thing. so i think people can get pretty tired of that. for now they are willing to overlook that because the tax cuts are working pretty well. so the question in 2020. i i'm thinking of people done so well in new hampshire, the year i spent most time here, and this is probably true of a lot of washington reporters, 2,000 campaign ofmcin which was incredibly exciting and fun. and that's getting lost on back roads. it was pregps. at least the cheaper rental cars i got at the manchester airport didn't have so coming back from town hauls, no e, but god knows where,
trying to get to my motel in god knows where, very excitingment seems like t manchester whatever that river is in manchester, you can cross that river a lot of me to point easily as you look for your motel. but i was thinking of mccain the other day, obviously given his current medical challge atpa is good example of something that wasn't predicted. and didn't quite win the ency he came pretty close, you know, if a couple of things had gone differently might have won. and his life obviously is such an inspiring story of courage, but also of willingness to take risks in politics. and reminder these risks sometimes payoff, and even when they don't payoff sometimes worth taking. let me stop there. and questions, comments? i didn't talk much about 2 >> a couple of questions. joanne. >> thank you. you mentioned the primaries. are there any candidates that,
and you probably knew this question was coming, any candidates that you could see potentially doing thi >> i think one of the mccarthy example suggests some you get predictable, reagan was leader of the conservative leader against ford, kennedy obviously against carter, but sometimes you do get amok car think. so i would cautionone of us gets to pick who runs. you could have more than one. i think a lot of people in washington on the never trump side of things or we might have more than one challenger. that's not bad aually. it wld sort itself out by primary day and wouldn't hurt to have two or three people take a look at t the most obvious candidate would be john kasich. he did pretty well here in 2016.
i think he would have -- i won't say first call, but i think he would be a more formidable candidate. and flake maybe and no reason they couldn't take a shot. kennedy didn't run in the primary year. so i was quoted, i gave radio interview with theos herald, this is always a mistake to do these things casually, so i'm not a politician so i can do what i want. and i was talking before the interview began on the radio show they have about charley bank and governor of massachusetts and confirming he was in good shape for his re-election hand popular with both parties. so in the interview i said baker would be formidable 2020 candidate. i was thinking more formidable
as independent candidate. cratic goff fleur as dde bipartisan ticket, trump sanders context. so that's the boston herald splashs th splashes this. so i couldn't believe it. don't have they any news. the front page kristol baker v trump 2020. last thing he needs is some notorious never trumper touting the fact, hey, massachusetts republicans once you renominate you can take on trump. so putting out statements. nothing to any of this. and i wonder, i don't know baker that well, i admire him, but i wonder he's probably annoyed that i said it. but most politicians aren't really annoyed at you if you speculate on them as presidential candidates. that's a long way of saying i think it's pretty hard to tell.
i think kasich has a standing no one else has though. >> i have a question about the vice president pence. what's his future? is he lining up to run? he seems to be very quiet. doesn't hear much about him making major statements. but his future? >> he's a big supporter of the president he wants you to know that he thinks the president is doing a great job and never been more honored in his life to work for the president. i know mike pence i knew him when he was in congress. i like mike and they socialize some and their kidre the same age. both of our kids went to e rine re. but i have been a little bit appalled i have to say by the degree of sicko fancy. i mean i work for a president, you are supposed to praise, we obviously did and we believed it in the case of george bush, d yale say nice things. but the degree of fawning is a
little bit much for me. but that's why i'm not a politician i suppose. yes, he has a good political organization. he'll go all around the country this year. but seems to me though, not going to run against trump. trump could decide not to run in which case a lot of peopleill run. and my feeling is unlike with al gore or something like that, and there wouldn't be a big sense among trump voters necessarily that they need to be for mike pens. they'll be other candidates running. there will be people like sass. kasich. you have a wide open presidential race if trump decided not to run. and i don't think pens would be very dominant position.i gus pe normal, a, trump gets re-elected and you are the sitting vice president for two terms, as you are in al gore, you won the
nomination. but even then depends how trump turns out. so i'm less convinced that, you know, he'll take a shot, and he's entitled to it, and real supporters out there. but i'm not convinced that pence ends up ever being a presidential nomie. >> 2016 washington [ inaudible ] in 2016, it seemed like the news media had basically had to take responsibility for what the outcome was they failed to report. and there was very little critical reporting. from your voon taki from your vantage point, are you seeing any change in the media? do you forsee a different election and different quality of reporting? >> i mean, i have issues, god knows withhe n media as well. and try to do with the standard but obviously we don't have the reach of cnn or fox. i don't know. i d qte agree, i guess,
seems me voters knew an awful lot of trump and voted for him for theer elections most reasons they d and a lot of it was anti-hilla clinton, and people voted with eyes open "access hollywood" didn't get a lot of attention. trump university i remember being part of a group that put up some ads on that as independent in the primaries. i think that people just weren't interested. people wanted change. i went to trump rallies and they knew i was anti-trump. why are you so critical of trump? i tried to explain. why are you for him? he's a great businessman. really, four bankruptcy. well i'd seen it on tv. big thing i missed on trump was r of celebrity. it was huge. that show was a huge network
evening show that was very popular in which he played himself as a successful decisive, but also engaging and kind of fun loving, you know, businessman. point of d pple like me who wae news and think it's a big deal when cnn gets 1.5 million viewers sort ofgot wt it means when a network show gets 12 or 1iloners. so t i think was much more important t success, maybe they had them too on cnn, certainly fox was pro trump. and that wa aroem going forwar i sense of just soing of news and echo chamber and all that. but i don't know how much you can really bla t media for trump in 2016. people have to take on thatot ane got lucky. we shouldn't also forget 16 them directing their own resources against each
other. in a mood of mean, in a way you couldn't write this if it was a novel couldn't make this up. people wt change. they wantomne who is going to change things. i learned this in '92 w for bush, bush was actually not president. the country was not in terrible shape in '92. won the cold war without firing a shot. bush had signed pretty responsible bipartisan wted chae. bunch of areas. and i remember going out, as quail chief of staff, and giving speeches and account whag we had done. didn't matter. people were willing to take a risk on clinton. wonz who didn't like clinton willing to get ross perot who got a lot of votes. and ross perro is sort of crazy. no offense to voters he. but the w sdil.
that's one lesson i learned people want change. so primary lucky having jeb bush as opponent. if people want change, two party establishment say great we have tworo greayou. s and brother of the two most recent republican presidents, jeb bush, whos a good guy, but that's what he looked like,nd hillary clint and wife of democratic president. so you want change. we'll give you bush and clinton. that was extremely lucky f trump. buy effecti in taking advantage of it. i think that was the key dynamic in the whole ca. that's why when we got to the wh ov in septem , i always said october, i thought that was one in four chance trump would win. i thought hillarclinton would win. she was ahead polls. thought you couldn't change atmosphere ho o advantage obesider ineopl thought they can
disqrump. they came prettyclose. she did beat him in the popular vote. it didn't quite work. as incumben one problem trump will face, it's tricky to run as change and cuent. ma h has goodh he can do reagan america is better than theywere. obama i took over after horrible financial crisis, it's not great, but came backome. those are decent mess headaches. or bush in '04, iraq but good response to 9/11. will trump be able to have incumbent re-elect message? another reason why he's a little more vulnerable. but the media is he helped aot by the siloization of the media which is a deeper problem with jus ask a question fort ses to mini revolt. congress.
they want the speaker tregn so they can bring in a new speaker. whether paul ryan is going to be there in november? and what is the post ryan speaker going to look like? >> so i think they sort of crushed this mini revolt or p e petered out. obviously, we just found out about, and mccarthy, kevin mccarthy, number two republican said nothing to it. and we have eight people on the th kevin mccarthy.scussed this of course, in this current climate, will that hurt him, i don't know. but i think ryan probably makes it through november. it is a little unu goi to ce y a going to be retiring. make yourself a lame duck. managing a conference that's already difficult to manage as we know. looking at an election that could well be bad for them and they could lose the house. so they are all inclined to panic and sort of runoff in different directions. so the whole thing is a little a
mess. i do think for that reason we could have unanticipated things happening in congress. for example, i rememberin about a month ago i wasn't so sure that you couldn't have immigration legislation move in the next month or two and there might be legislation to take care of the doca recipients. but now it seems like they signed the discharge petition, looks like ryan might be forced to bring something to the floor last week of june. some people think trump will veto, but i'm not so sure. if t can give him face saving money for the wall. so i suspect things will be more, again, we have gotten very used t the two parties lined up, trench warfare, 51-49 votes in the sete. 237 to 190 whatever the math is 8 votes in the house, that's kind of just the way congress works. it is the way congress has
worked in recent years, for better or worse, but it needn't work that way. one thing to watch for, what happens, i said november 7th before 2018 in terms of the presidential, people looking forward, what happens in congress on november 7th? what if the democrats win the house by 6 seats or something? 10 seats? probably the most single outcome right now. a heck of a lot of democrat candidates have run, including some incouple bent, saying they won't vote for nancy pelosi for speaker. i was with a democrat the other day, and he said pointed that out to me, i was saying something like what would washington look like when it's trump versus nancy pelosi 2020? people get so sick of the kind of unbelievable partisanship and the ideological polarization. and i said that. and he was just chatting. and he said what makes you think
nancy pelosi will be speaker? i said i don't know if they win the house, someone should be speaker. and he said no. i mean, people said they wouldn't vote for her. they'll switch. they'll find an excuse in november or december and say, well, i think it's the right thing to do. and he said, and he's closer to the democrats than i am, he said no. if you are con or lamb and said that, you could have a vote where it's 195 for the republican and 195 for nancy pelosi and 35 democrats vote for some young moderator something. and we are sort of in deadlock. and you could have negotiations then about who becomes the next speaker. you could imagine if the house is narrowly divided some members of congress on both parties getting together we should change some of the rules to make it easier for bills to come to the floor to stop this kind of
strangle hold. the speaker it and the majority leader have on legislation. and you can imagine the same in the senate if it's 51-49. is it impossible that susan collins and get together and say we do not have more of a regular order in the senate. right now, this is shocking to me who has been in washington for 30 years, right now it votes out 14-7 a bill that i rather like, but which would protect mueller, wouldn't totally protect mueller but create a review process if the president tries to fire the special counsel. there are some genuine constitutional concerns about that. i think they could be addressed on amendments on the floor. but it comes out 14-7 senate judiciary 2 to 1.
not bringing it to the floor. well, i don't know, does majority leader, it's 2 to 1 vote in committee, shouldn't he bring to the floor and let the people amend it and see if he can get 60 votes on the floor? it's a little astonishing to say i'm not bringing it to the floor. so i think there is a pretty big feeling among younger members especially in the house and in the senate that the system is really broken. and it is. and this predates trump. this is not a trump problem particularly. and i think you could see a situation, whatever happens in the next four, five months, post election day in 2018, where you get much more turmoil and possible change, actually, in the house and the senate, both in personnel. because ryan won't be leader either. so you could have a new democrat and republican on the house side. but also change in procedures. so just like what i was saying presidential campaign, image we
have of how congress works, total polarization, trench warfare, may not hold for the next 2019, 2020. >> one final question. just take the mic, pliease. >> would you comment briefly on john mccain with his comment on sara pa sarah palin. >> i had met her in alaska saying here's an interesting young governor quite popular with both republicans and democrats tanging on the energy companies. and i had talked her up a little bit of having outsider pobltd. i wrote a column myself in "the new york times" i had forgotten i had done this when i saw the story come up in mccain's new book, i wrote a column in "the
new york times" urging mccain to take leiberman, they are best friends, that probably wouldn't have worked either, i think obama would have won in 2008, iraq and everything else. and i think what mccain says is he wishes, i mean, mccain was thinking about it, and i hadn't realized how seriously he wanted to do it. got talked out of it by his political aids. how can you have a pro choice vice president even if you assure them that mccain will pick the judges. it would have been a mess at the convention. there would have been a revolt. i think mccain would have won. i still think it would be a good thing to do for the country and gamble. so mccain is saying he wishes he would have done that. i think in the book, that i looked at, defends palin as
candidate. he's quiet and polite i would say about her subsequent trajectory who for me i was impressed with her is very disappointing. i don't know if she always had these limitations. or if she got, i don't know, celebrity and everything else kind of went to her head and she stopped being serious politician and just became a very entrenched with the money and fame and tv contracts and so forth. so she's a disappointment to me. because there is a real talent there. one thing i would say in defense of the pal enpicinpick, there w desire for something new, that was manifested on the democratic side by obama in a way. it wasn't crazy to say mccain who had been around for a long time and was very much of an in his own maverick way -- >> good