tv Road to the White House CSPAN December 14, 2015 1:12am-2:00am EST
washington post story. coming together to talk about a strategy and stop somebody like trump or you. -- youd if the it was a said, if this was the beginning of a plan to subvert the well of the voters and replace it with the will of the political elite dr. ben carson: i heard it from people who are so tired of backroom deals and setter fuchsia and dishonesty. if that is the case, i am out of here. i was told it was a routine meeting, no different from any of the others and that the last thing they would do is engage in backroom dealing. but, the jury is out. >> are you trying to win iowa? >> i am not running for second
or third place. strongs start -- a second place is viewed as a first-place but you cannot campaign for a second or third. >> you are now viewed as an extent punishment figure. how do you handle that? you feel that was an attack? >> i feel it does not reflect my history. i would not be in the senate if the establishment did not want me there. thisi chose to get into race, i had a lot of people come forward and tell me a should not run. that it was not my turn. by the way, if i was the establishment favorite i would have raised a lot $6 million in the first quarter. the republican party cannot be elected unless it is working together in the same direction.
we must also attract new people to our cause. principles, but by applying our principles of limited government, free enterprise, and strong national defense to the hopes, dreams, and concerns of everyday americans, some of whom have not heard from americans in a long time. drum: i am not supposed to be here. i was a member of the establishment of months ago. i am supposed to be of the other side writing checks and having people do whatever i want. >> so what do you say? mr. trump: folks, i'm sorry i did this to you, but you've got to get used to it. i aml see whether or not being treated fairly. i'm a conservative guy, have great ideas rim going to make our country great again. i'm going to make it great again. it is a mess. right now our country is a mess. i think if i win, in tw's after i win, we will have the happiest
people in the world. i understand, chris, i understand where they're coming from. this was not supposed to happen. they were s >> on washington journal, we spoke more about the relationship with the republican party. this is 45 minutes. halper."'s daniel he is the online editor. start by talking a little bit .bout the latest poll we have been talking about it all morning. it shows that ted cruz has now overtaken donald trump with a ad iny impressive le iowa. how much faith should we put in this poll?
guest: i think it is a good representation of where the race stands right now. the race can change a lot by the time voters actually go to caucus in iowa. host: we have what, 50 days left? guest: 50 days left, and three debates left. a lot can change in that time. also, another reason to think that paul is credible, there is another poll at the beginning of last week that signaled the shift was coming. the poll shows ted cruz 10 points ahead of donald trump. i think, right now, you have to say that he is the oddments favorite to win iowa. lot can change. someone pointed out on twitter last night, a poll like this was
taken in 2011 before the 2012 election, and newt gingrich was at a 5% of the vote, mitt romney was at about 16%, and rick santorum had something like 6%. won iowa.orum one momentum changes in campaigns, and these things do have ways of changing. cruz, unfortunately now that everyone assumes he is 10 points ahead, there would be a lot of pressure on him. he will have to maintain that and continue growing his base of supporters and adding on to that, or there will be an inevitable letdown, and he will disappoint people. tore is pressure on cruz perform. there may be concerned that you toopeaking a tiny bit early. donald trump, his supporters did not go down, but support behind cruz consolidated.
i think that is an important point to make. host: i thought that was an interesting one that you just raise. does this say more about cruz, or more about trump? is it the case of trump falling in favorability or cruz just winning more support than he had previously? guest: there is no proof that support is weakening or less favorable. he was at 20% or so and he is a 20% or so.t meanwhile, the rest of the race is shifting. trump has his supporters, but the rest of the race seems to be flattening. we does have a few credible candidates left at this point who can win the white house. we are probably looking at 3-4, may be out most of fibers and race. ted cruz, don trump, marco rubio tophose have to be the
three. chris christie has an outside chance, especially if he wins new hampshire. i do not think you can count on ben carson, though he is running too well to rule him out. things can change radically. there is also 5% chance that something totally unexpected can happen and someone who we are not talking about today could emerge as a real threat and front runner. the difference between this race and the 2012 present will race, we have not seen a lot of change. we have seen some of the lord people fluctuate, but at the top tier, a lot has remained the same over a long period of time. we have not had a lot of shifts in the race. this iowa poll seems to be indicating the biggest shift as of late. we are not able to account for and do not know what that may mean.
host: you mentioned that donald trump tried to bring the limelight back to himself. are you referring to his comments on the temporary ban of muslims in the u.s.? guest: obviously that is what people have been talking about for the last week. i don't think there was any surprise. i think that was a concerted effort to call attention to himself. he is still there, he is still an important figure. by the way, it worked. in a certain way, he got of a a lot of attention for himself. a is possible that he has certain ceiling, and his numbers can only go so high. we do not yet know. his numbers nationally are higher than they ever have been. he is doing well. it is hard to discount him, and terms of a figure, who is doing well. he is consolidating support. it is a low hard to see how he pulls out a victory, especially if you go map by map.
if ted cruz wins iowa, if marco rubio or someone else wins new hampshire -- don trump needs an early victory to sustain his maying persona, or else you be a loser, to use a donald trump term. we honestly have no idea how it will turn out because we have never seen anything like this before. host: we want to hear your thoughts. you can call in. if you did not get your call and in the last segment, you can dial back in. (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8000 for democrats. for independents, (202) 745-8002 . we will take our first caller from maryland, philip on the independent line. what do you say this morning? caller: good morning. call and say
something about -- it seems to me that the newspapers, the media, they are always pushing establishment type candidates. is a good guy. i think they are all trying to up in the and bush polls. christie also. christie has like 1%. what i would like to know is wan specific that cruz ts that people don't like. i would think, if you are present color, you would love to have someone like trump or cruz because they will create jobs and help people. the more jobs you have, the more money people would make. anyway. host: all right, philip from
maryland. guest: i think cruz has done a good job gathering a lot of support. a pretty narrow appeal in a certain sense that he is able to win over conservatives. i do think that appeal -- one thing he has accomplished, which is important, especially at a presidential level, which a lot of president candidates do not lost-- he has not supporters. he has only been adding to his pile of supporters. i think that helps a lot. when you are running for president, do not lose people who like you. i do not think other candidates, jeb bush for example, have been able to do that as successfully as ted cruz has. host: we are speaking with daniel halper of "the weekly standard." i want to ask you about this what does it mean and
why are they even considering this idea? guest: there was talk last time of a brokerage convention. there's always talk about this. hardly, in modern recent times, it has not come to fruition. party should be prepared for what is going on. host: what is a brokerage convention? guest: when you go in the convention, and there is not a clear winner. you go to the floor and try to win a nomination through delegates and a pairing of the field right there on the convention floor. it could happen. i think, in a way, this time looks more ripe for it than any other time because ted cruz will not go away. if ted cruz wins iowa -- a lot of the delegates will be divided proportionally, so do not have
to win a state to win a certain amount of delegates. it means you can stay in the race for a while and gain support, even if you are not winning states. obviously, you would have to win some states, but if donald trump is in it for the long run, and decides to invest a lot of his own money in the race, and ted cruz days, and marco rubio is able to use a lot of money in his own bank, you can see how it could go a long time without a clear winner, and could go to a brokered convention. it is not very likely, but if you are a party, it would be irresponsible to not plan for something like that. it does not seem to crazy to me that they are doing that. ,ost: next up from pennsylvania barry on the democratic line. caller: good morning, c-span. downnk people need to calm . ed to one of your
callers on thursday or friday from new york or massachusetts, i think, and he was saying that he is concerned about the political iq of people. i could not have worded it any better myself. they interviewed donald trump and said, we are looking at things, we are going to do things -- nothing is for sites precise in what he says. he is an entertainer. we need to get serious. we need to listen to c-span and free speech tv. i know the republicans complain and say that c-span is biased -- that is not true. you put republicans on the i do not want to listen to, by listen to them. breath, quit arguing with each other. that is all i have to say. thank you. theory of thes a
race that once people do get serious about it that donald trump cannot be supported. people say, the guys a reality tv star, and not a serious political figure, and so therefore his support will a erode. it is possible, what the caller is alluding to. obviously, if you're another candidate in the race, that is what you are hoping for, but there is not proof that his supporters would just about of the operate -- even aporate. host: how easily do you think his supporters would shift allegiance? "usa today" poll found 60% would follow him out of
the gop. guest: donald trump tells his fans think you have to support for cas he is better than hillary clinton would be and that's why i would support him. that is how it could work. donald trump is not a predictable figure. we don't know what he will do. we don't know if he won't run as a third party. i know i am so those to come here and appear and pretend i know what i -- and know what will happen. i think it is careless. there are a different a couple caperilous.t is they are saying the republican party could be over, especially
in donald trump wins it. win, itd trump doesn't could still change the republican party so much. the things that donald trump stands for is very different than what the republican party has stood for. he is not a republican in the traditional sense. , in many ways, a nationalist. .e clearly has supporters the republican party may not survive. it could be a very different party. this is a concern. this is something people want able to see coming. on the democratic side, if someone ran this kind of campaign on the democratic side, they could break that party up as well and show a certain
agility toward american politics. the reason it has been so productive in certain ways force for so- in certain ways long, people do tend to play by the rules. here, we have someone not playing by the rules, and it is exciting. sonny is up next on the republican line. good morning to you. caller: good morning. i want to make a comment about ted cruz. him andl for voting for then i heard he was planning on shutting down the program for hud. there are lots of people, including myself, that are disabled, or cannot afford apartments, and he doesn't islize so many people he
going to put out on the street if he does this. i will be voting for someone else if he does this. host: all right. guest: that goes against my point that ted cruz had lost any supporters. there are supporters, or at least one, who had his support in them off it. has lostpoint, he many. obviously, when government benefit -- people benefit off some government programs, ted cruz can make the case that they are not benefiting enough and not the best way to solve these problems. there are other ways, some private, to solve a lot of these low income problems. , people are upset with their benefits are cut. people tend to vote their interests. sunny, is one of them.
we haven't talked much about jeb bush. here he is at one of his super pac adds.
>> when the attacks come here, the person behind this desk must have to protect your family. [video clip] capturehave voted to terrorist surveillance. 27 generals and admirals promote jeb bush. that was an ad for one of jeb bush's super pac's. that he has about
6% of voters in iowa. we are talking with daniel halper. what is it going to take for jeb bush to climb back up in the polls and regain momentum? guest: i don't think it's possible. [laughter] i think the race has been over for jeb for a long time. i think the chip theory of the race at this point -- i think the jeb bush of the race at this point -- people want people more sensible than him. he is a lot softer or a lot weaker than the numbers are suggesting. i don't think this is the year for jeb bush. a lot of things are not in his favor, particularly, hillary and 10 as the democratic -- hillary
clinton as the democratic nominee. i don't think that is who republican voters want. while,n politics for a he was last elected 10 years ago in florida. has done a very good job making a case for himself. i don't the a pathway for jeb. inconceivable way marco falls apart. there is a ted cruz and donald trump war, and may be jeb bush can regain supporters. it is hard to see it going anywhere. host: and you see a possibility of a top-cruise tickets. warfare, battling about and jump -- and jeb bush would want sensibility. ast: is there a potential for jeb bush-ted cruz ticket?
guest: i cannot imagine that happening. who am i to say. alice calling on independent line. go ahead with your question for comment. caller: thank you for excepting my phone call. trump to say about donald : he is a businessman. something i learned in high school about businessman, the harder the cell, the cheaper the audit. that is donald trump. .e has been outlandish it is almost like he is a plant by the democrats to totally sabotage the republican party. i believe the republican party is doing that to themselves. each candidate in the republican
party is really saying that anybody who doesn't eat like they did is their enemy. -- who doesn't think like they think is their enemy. i will vote for hillary clinton. i hope the country is more unified under the democrats right now. politically, with a republican president and a republican congress, we are -- to havea serious programs shoved down our throat. it thenkrupted us there republicans almost bankrupted us with the economy. we became close to total collapse. wars.e had two unfunded i was in vietnam and i saw it coming. "win" these wars.
host: all right. daniel halper. he dismissed donald trump and then made a case for donald trump. the republicans and democrats have all screwed this up. that is the attitude that is fueling a lot of this. there is this crisis and idea that the elite don't know what they are doing. that isis is running rampant in the middle east and you are at and here at home and in europe. and president obama isn't doing anything. that is why when donald trump calls for a ban on muslims, he can gain ground and some people are willing to air on the side of doing too much.
there is this contradiction. there are plenty of people he turns off. the reason he is doing well is there is a lack of confidence in other people. even though this caller doesn't by the donald trump sales pitch, buyoes, in fact, by into -- --o the disbelief that the politicians are doing anything. host: alvin is next on the republican line. what i wanted to talk that the man said he little bit ago that ted cruz got would ban welfare.
if they had listened eight years ago, they were going to cut it all out. , he was just like reagan shut down the nursing homes. he said to take care of your own. they are not for the working man. host: all right, alvin, from texas. guest: republicans are more likely to cut benefits and democrats. i think they can make the argument that republicans are more likely to ensure benefits are around for much longer. medicare andhat social programs are not sustainable and can't -- are too to figure out some way to pay for it, they have to be reformed. social security was designed in a different era when people lived a lot shorter, smoke cigarettes.
of the smoke cigarettes because we are not allowed to anymore. kept thearettes lifespan shorter and people died earlier and it was cheaper when people died earlier. it is expensive to keep people around longer. things? republicans, to their credit, are at least willing to talk about it and not made inroads in dealing with those come but are talking to democrats about this. you don't get the sense they understand -- the math just up.t hold eventually, you become europe, or worse, and not able to sustain yourself. host: there are still a number of debates left to go before the iowa caucuses on february 1. the next one is on tuesday. what you expect to see out of that? do you expect to see a renewed ted cruz? guest: ted cruz has always been
a good debater. he was a college-level debater. rubio seems to give polished answers that the pundits seem to like. that is helpful. a lot of ice are going to be on donald trump. what does he do? how does he act? he hasn't been such a strong debater, but that has not hurt him. will be who won't be on the stage. there is an article in the "boston globe" saying that if join the does not debate, he will drop out. there will be a lot of those stories. we are going to start seeing campaigns coming to an end in the next six to eight weeks.
that is going to dominate the story. trump, think -- donald with his poll numbers started slipping in iowa, he had this disruption. what is to say we won't see more ,f that, name-calling successful swipes against marco rubio and others? you can get interesting. i will tune in myself. i think there may be fireworks. host: what you think is behind ted cruz is -- ted cruz's moment time? it the narrowing of the field? is there something driving the momentum? guest: he invested heavily in iowa for a long time.
he has been there for years visiting and building support. as other candidates become less serious, there is a certain amount of momentum. there are people who will endorse with a candidate is gaining momentum, or will not endorse when a candidate is not going anywhere. makesements are meant to the people endorsing look favorable, not just the ones receiving the endorsements. i think we see a lot of people taking advantage of ted cruz as well. it is normal and makes a fair amount of sense. will come under slightly more scrutiny, but he has been under scrutiny for a long while. he will probably be able to
whether it's all right -- weather it's all right. pitches is that i have a backbone. i think a lot of people believe that an buy that. it is very believable because a him onpeople don't like capitol hill. a lot of this fellow republican senators absolutely hate him. floridaorge from all,, -- george from florida. good morning. think the reason well isrump is doing so that he is flying in the face of political correctness. money. so much it never works. they talk about the love of money and corruption of all
evil. socialists told us they were going to build us a utopia since 1960. they were going to cure the sins and ills of mankind. so far, everything has worsened. now the president here has wanted to make it more socialistic, and people were scratching their heads, saying that the whole world has turned capitalistic and you want more isolationism. i have heard a lot of people say, why would the working man, the 40% in the middle who decide elections, want to vote republican? it's big business. socialism is out there to give money away, which by the way, they do by the vote. i got to tell them why they are not aware of it. the same socialists, these liberals, or everything about below the waist.
host: that is george from florida. trump, sure, maybe there is political correction he doesn't buy into. elites.reaction to the we can call it different things. regardless of whether donald trump stays in it for in it for changed haul, he has american politics. future in of his there needsitics, to be a grappling of how to deal with these problems. there is a believe that there is preferential treatment to those connected.
we see this time and time again. leader would be prudent to address these issues. crestwood,n from kentucky is up next on the democratic line. go ahead, sharon. caller: good morning. i have been a diehard democrats my entire life. that is how i was raised. but i am changing, i am going to the republican side. believebecause i truly in donald trump. i believe in the things he is telling us. he is an extreme the smart businessman. he couldn't have built and have the impact that he has if he wasn't. toneed someone that is going stand up for this country. obama is doing absolutely zero to help us. iran and trade with
not even get that the prisoners we have was just wrong. wrong in so many ways. and i am moving to the republican side. i truly hope that donald trump wins the nomination. thank you. host: sharon, we hear you. it is so interesting. daniel halper, bucking the traditional wisdom that donald trump's success may actually hurt them across. this tweet from jeb bush saying that maybe donald trump continuing -- that come up trumps is negotiating with his buddy hillary clinton. what impact is donald trump having on the democratic party? sucked -- he sucked all of the attention to himself making it easy for hillary clinton. hard to have a competitive race when someone is not
challenging you for that position. that has probably helped hillary clinton not being in the limelight all the time. i think with her poll numbers -- her poll numbers tend to go down when there is a lot of focus on her. they stay pretty stagnant when there is less. clinton.helped hillary to sharon's point, donald trump isn't a conservative. there are certain things he appealingh, but he is to something that is not conservative. it is the nationalism and these which have, residents, not necessarily strictly among conservatives. that it is why there is a fight for the future of the republican party. it makes sense.
he is not like the other republicans. he is not like other republicans ideologically. here is a guy that leaves an eminent domain and taking other people's property for his own. money to hillary clinton because he is a businessman. this is not your traditional republican. anybody can join these parties. host: how do you see the republican party potentially fracturing under this process? what would be the dividing line? guest: it donald trump gets elected, that is a pretty straight fracture down the middle. i think at least half of the republicans can support this guy -- can't support this guy because he is against everything they believe in. 68 percent of his
supporters would go with him. he would pick up other supporters who may not support the republican nominee like sharon. i think he would do well. the outcome of the presidential race, but it would be a smaller side fracture. [laughter] i am not equipped to talk about fractures. if you we should drop the analogy now. , obviously, the whole party changes dramatically. that is a big appeal for a lot of his supporters. they the party to change radically -- they want the party to change dramatically. that is one of the main reasons they want him to win. richard, independent caller. go ahead. caller: thank you very much. antipathy, it is very
clear that such a dramatic switch and the results of polls tell us that these polls have skewed and very easy to skew a poll. go to your files and find the right people, get the right answer, and you've got something to use against trump. polls fromt rely on the national media because they are always trying to shift attention to what they want. that's it. thank you. guest: yeah. we don't know how good the polls are going to be. there have been a lot -- there has been a lot of bad polling lately. the whole totally wrong? race, thosernor's polls were totally wrong.
donald trump says that polling validates his candidacy, and therefore, he should be the nominee. of course, the tv networks and republican party have validated by forming the rules around the dates with using a lot of the poll numbers. but look, people will get to decide. decided byns aren't the polls. people do actually get to vote. caucus in their primary, and people get to vote in the general election and that is what will decide the election, not any poll numbers. the poll numbers just get us a little sample as to what's going on in the race because sometimes it is hard to tell. obviously, it is not the end all, be all. host: next up will be diane, republican rum de soto, kansas. caller: good morning.
i have been a rubio supporter the whole time. i am starting to lean towards ted cruz. with that in mind, i have two things i want to ask. number one, a lot of earlier callers refer to the fact he was born in canada and not qualified to be president. i would like that clarified your number two, i would like to know what is -- well, what is the ted cruz to the hispanic community and the establishment? with a stick with him if he was getting momentum as the favorite? thank you. to teda couple of points cruz. he was born in canada. because the tuition states that one's you are a -- the constitution states that one
becomes a natural born citizen if your parent is an american citizen, it doesn't matter where you are born. john mccain was born in panama and he was enough for born citizen because his parents were american. is cruz's mother american. this has been tested in court. seems reasonable to me personally. it hasn't been tested in court. we are going to be hearing a lot about that. hat is probably donald trump's of attack that ted cruz is it really american. -- that is probably donald attack that line of ted cruz isn't really american. and how does ted cruz appeal to the establishment? he doesn't in a certain way. tohas gone out of his way
make a lot of enemies on capitol hill, including members in his party. if it becomes a ted cruz/donald trump battle, i would much rather -- most people would rather go with ted cruz then donald trump. liking marco rubio. he is a strong candidate. he lead in the top three. perhaps he could go to the wayside. we are not really sure of his viability. he could be the strongest candidates, but we don't know that yet. if it does become a donald thinkted cruz battle, i people would rather have ted cruz. it would be an interesting battle. all, of course, theoretical. host: on the democratic line, ray from louisiana.
go ahead. caller: good morning c-span. good morning daniel. guest: good morning. caller: i am an old man. i have watched the republican party since eisenhower was president. he is the only republican that help the middle class in america. i have watched ronald reagan, all of them, they diminished democrats, they blocked this president from everything try to pass, even unemployment extension for the working man. now, it is election time, they bandwagon and the want to blame president obama for everything that has gone wrong. the only care about the ones their pockets. they are nothing but prostitutes for the rich. ray, i do encourage you to
stay tuned for the next segment. we will be talking about the middle class. we will let daniel have the last word. guest: i think republicans see it differently. they see democrats as the party of hollywood, and liberal, new york elites, california elites. full of their own rich people. they get a lot of corporate welfare that does not do much good for the poor and the middle class. that is obviously a core tenant of this today, this presidential , i'mion, and we will sure, see the candidates battle it out with hillary clin >> on the next "washington
journal," tightening visa requirements and steps the u.s. is taking to counter isis. ci are joined by frank som lluffo and john della volpe talks about a recent view on how millennial's view 2016, the fight against isis, and other topics. and caitlin emma discusses efforts by the education department to help low performing schools get better through school improvement grants. we also take our calls and look for your comments on facebook and twitter, beginning live at 7:00 a.m. eastern on c-span. >> next, a discussion on the syrian refugee response with germany's ambassador to the u.s. and policy fellows from the brookings institution and the migration policy institute. this was hosted by the group new america. it is ian