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tv   US House of Representatives Special Orders  CSPAN  June 23, 2016 7:00pm-9:01pm EDT

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which we're working hard on and probably some of those problems will take a generation to work through. but boston is a great place to be and a vibrant place and that will be the same. . >> you can't put the top back. you've got to keep looking forward. the nation wants to be fed. and boston needs to do that job. >> thank you both so much indeed. i think you get a sense here of some of the opposing views and also the indifferent -- in different parts of the country people are voting for different reasons. here it's largely imimmigration. you know, they want to be heard here. they want their voices to be heard about what i feel is the continue sometimes of westminster and london and
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brussels. whatever the result, they'll still want their voices heard when this is all over. >> their voices might be heard loud and clear. tom: we just had results in from new castle it was a remain victory but only by the narrowest of margins. i think it's fair to say that's not necessarily what we expected. expectation is a difficult thing. we probably expected remain to do better? >> it seemed likely remain would win new castle. it's a city with dwight quite a young population. the university, quite a thriving economy in the northeast. those factors we expected. there was a big turnout, over 67%. up eight points on the general election in new castle. i think this will give the leave campaign a little hope even though remain won the votes there. >> i remember when boris johnson went for visit there he was
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mobbed at the station. people thought this sort of place would be labor, it's got the machinery there. but also young. but actually perhaps these pockets. tom: we discussed this evening, paul, that's interesting -- he's in suther lapd, not new castle, we're waiting for southerland. first of all interesting result from new castle to say the least. any indication of both when we're going to hear and what we might hear when we hear? >> i would say declaration pretty imminent now. you can see the gathering around here. voting is definitely finished. i'm going to call it. it is a leave here in sunderland tonight. i think by more than the remain had hoped. we're looking at something like a 64--- 60-40 split. that's a pessimistic view. they wanted something like maybe low 50's to leave. that would have been acceptable
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for them. but a 60-40 split is devastating for the remain camp if that is as pessimistic as they think it will be. it's interesting, too, tom, because the two big themes of this campaign have been immigration and the economy. immigration, around here, about 2% of the people abroad. immigration really resonates. lucky you, you haven't got much immigration, wait 20, 30 years you'll have it. that argument resonated. on the economy, we're a couple miles here from the nearest car plant. they have said they want to remain in the european union yet labor m.p.'s tell me factory workers on the floor are voting leave the la bour party's ability to get the vote out here. as i say a 60-40 split if it is that would be inconsidered as ad pli disappointing for the labour party.
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tom: that's an extraordinary result if it turns out to be so. certainly higher for leave than imagined. perhaps an indication that the night is not remain by any stretch of the imagination. what do you make of -- go on from new castle and take in what paul said about sunderland. he's calling it which is an inexact science. >> he's seen it developed. two neighboring cities in the northeast. rather different demographics and quite a lot of rivalry between them. in sunderland there has been a history go back to the local elections. but sunderland epitomizes what's happened to the economy over the last 40 years. it used to be a center of heavy industry. coal mining area. all those jobs have disappeared. clearly there's been disillusionment with how well the new labour party was able to step in. this high turnout in sunderland as in new castle has been people instead of the young remainers
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coming out it's been disillusioned people fed up with politics coming out. this is our chance, what's the leave slogan to get our country back. tom: that is certainly an electrifying piece of news. if that turns out to be true, it's going to change the evening dramatically. we have a result from orkney, remain in charge there. 63%. maybe can i ask you to comment on that. we're not surprised. doesn't prove anything one way or the other. >> no. that's more in line with what we would have expected if the result was going to be a tie tonight. it's just in 1975 referendum on the community, orkney voted west but the shutlands voted no. we're expected a clean sweep from the islands tonight. tom: as the results roll in you're see the running total expressed as a percentage on screen. once the result has been
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declared you'll see it flash on the screen and see the immediate impact it had on the overall result in terms of percent and how many votes they won. we're calling this majority. below that is what we're calling a progress bar. the central yellow mark is the tipping point which both sides are racing towards. half the total votes cast plus one. the point which we will know for sure that one camp has won the race. james has some reaction. >>thon than is here who is the m.e.p., we have a new castle result. we think we know the sunderland's going for leave. you have heard what your party leader said, do you think he spoke too soon? >> orkney gave a gut feeling. in the 24-hour news cycle, a gut feeling is reported as though -- actually i think what we're seeing in new castle is very
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encouraging. >> what would you expecting there? hoping for? >> our benchmark for a level result for new castle was something in the range of 43%, 44%. to say that we're on 49.3%, actually, is substantially higher than we were expecting in new castle. of course, they have done very well as a policy in the northeast in the general election. it was our best region in the country in terms of percentage votes. perhaps to say that something's going the way we expected in the northeast isn't a surprise. but i certainly prefer it to be going better than expected rather than worse. >> in sunderland where our reporter says looking 60-40 for leave. again, how is that in terms of expectations? >> again, i suppose our benchmarking for sunderland was something in the region of 53% to 54%. to say anecdotally something in the region of 60 that would be
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better than expected. sunderland is a place with substantial local issues. of course we campaigned very hard, the fishing industry and deformation of that industry has had an impact for leave. overall certainly very much better than exspeggetted. i wouldn't project too much from sunderland. new castle is very encouraging. both looking very good. one may be more representative for national picture than the other. >> you're an m.e.p., you are trying to do yourself out of a job. looking forward to signing on shortly? >> well, i suppose what we m.e.p.'s throughout this campaign, it really does show we believe in the cause of getting out of the yuped. we're campaigning to put ourselves out of a job. can i tell you this campaign has been possibly one of the most grueling experiences of my entire life if not the most grueling. i will certainly relish doing
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something less if we do manage to win. >> if you don't make it, if you lose, does the war go on? >> yes. i think so. it's that close. world war iii with the end of western political civilization as we know it. if those threats did somehow result in a very small victory for remain, i think you have to question that and the 10 million pounds of government propaganda leaflets that went into that campaign. i think you would see the campaign would go on. >> jonathan, our m.e.p.. northeast, apologies, back to you, tom. tom: thank you very much. it's almost 10 past 12. we have had our first few results in. this you can see is the state of play. remain ahead but it's hard to read too much into it at this stage of the evening. as james was alluding to there. very interesting those results
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from both sunderland and new castle. gibraltar was the first to declare, 96% of voters staying in. 4% wanted to leave. nigel has arrived at the leave party surrounded by the media, as you would expect. rlier, told i.t.v. news they were -- wasn't conceding when he arrived. >> tonight, whatever the result, is not one for recriminations but for celebration, for the landscape of british politics over the course of the last few weeks has changed and changed forever. win or lose this battle tonight, we will win this war. we will get our country back. we will get our independence back. and we will get our borders back. thank you. tom: former labour leader even 23 we vote to remane the e.u. must rep form. >> if any european leader, if it is a narrow remain lead, if any
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european leader says whoopy or british establishment thinks that's fine we can go back to business as usual, they're brong. tom: i'm joined by andy, the prime minister's former director of communications back in the fray. welcome to the studio. if you -- you sat with the prime minister many, many times at rather tricky moments. if you were sitting with him and you were together watching sunderland and new castle come n. you would be feeling a little nervous, wouldn't you? >> yes. i think anxious would be the overriding emotion right now. tom: what do you then begin to think of? he clearly has to consider the possibility that it's leave. what do you think tomorrow, the next day, and so on looks like for him? does he make a statement? does he get the bank of england make a statement? if he end up in the leave territory, what do you think the plan is to calm everyone down? >> i imagine he spent most of
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today going through the different scenarios. that would be the right and professional thing to do. i'm sure he has. but i think it's far too early to say what the exact chain of events will be. you got the country first of all to think of. you got the house of commons to think of. the cabinet to think of. and you've got what seems to be the possibility that the party actually will not be in a state of rebellion. that's my view as we sit here now. i think that's the case if we d up with a narrow win for remain. i happen to think that's the case if we end up with a narrow win for leave because i think the mechanics of trying to unseat david cameron i think are pretty improbable at the moment, thrick given the letter we're
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seeing. tom: we're waiting for the sunderland results. not to interrupt you. we have seen the letters tonight, i guess you wouldn't have been surprised by that, if you had been communications, right now you would be keen to see one emerge at this point. how convinced are you by it that if we do remain let's say it's going to be enough to shore up the prime minister's position? >> i think if it's remain, a win is a win. i do. tom: even if it's 51%-49%? >> i'm not for a moment saying there won't be a pretty serious and perhaps quite complex and difficult job to do in bringing the party back together, but a win is a win. and david cameron will have been -- if that's what happens, a prime minister who got the party over the line in 2010. who won an election in 2015 that was absolutely against all predictions and against the odds. who has taken two of the biggest issues in our lifetime in this
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country to the country and it ended up on the winning side. i think that is enough for the party to say, ok, another factor here also. it tom: 2017, 2018? >> whether 2017 or 2018, this isn't a prime minister who has a long-term political vested interest. you could argue the vested interest in his legacy. he's going to want to get out in his own terms and achieve what he can before then. tom: let's suppose we leave. what does he wake up and think tomorrow morning? does he think that's it, i'm out here in montreal, two months, two days? immediately? or do you think he thinks now i have to stay for six months or a year? what on earth is he negotiating because it's not position to negotiate? >> it depends on the number. my view is a narrow win for leave is still manageable. it's difficult but i think it's manageable.
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tom: leader? >> remain as leader and for him to work through it. not least because there are a fair number of conservative m.p.'s who are pro-brexit but not pro-boris johnson. and who will think to themselves the surest way of stopping the coronation of johnson, which they might have a view on, is to make sure the prime minister stays in place. my sense is this evening just from the mood of the place is doesn't feel to me as though the conservative party is right for rebellion at the moment. of course it's the numbers as ever in politics. and we'll see what the results look like later in the evening. tom: if the prime minister stays, does he need a deputy? a boris johnson deputy to make sure that he ends up negotiating what the they want? let's be honest we know what we don't want if we left. we don't know what we do want. -- f it's a marrow leave -- narrow leave --
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>> on the 23 $of june, 2016, as the european union reverend dumb 2015, having been authorized to do so by the regional council officer, i hereby give notice i certify the following. the total number of ballot 134,400. nted was the total number of votes cast in favor remain was 51,9350. the total number of votes cast ,000 vor of leave was, 82 cheers and applause] >> absolutely delighted leave campaigners in sunderland. i can't go the percentage now off the top of my head.
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>> here we go. >> the total number of votes 3 st in favor of leave was 82, 94. the number of ballot papers rejected was as follows, no official mark, zero. votes unvoted for, 13. mark -- tom: there we have it. sunderland you saw from the reaction of the lead campaigners on the floor, a majority of whopping great victory for leave. more than 61% of the vote. collin, can i bring you in here, that's better than we imagined leave might do in sunderland. we expected them to win. they won bigger than we would have imagined? >> all our calculations have been on the idea the country as a whole would be a ty, what we would expect in various areas. in sirnedland the answer to that
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was about a 10% win for leave. we did not expect them to win by 24 percentage points rather than 10 percentage points. they will be very happy. we also had the result in in scotland which is an s.n.p. area. you could say where it isn't in scotland these days, that was on our list of counting areas most likely to vote remain. it did but only by 58 points to 42 in favor of remain. we would have expected a result of over 60%. so far the results coming through this evening rather i think cast doubt very literal stage on the low key approach to what's going on. it's leave will be the happier campaign at the moment in terms of the actual results. of course we haven't heard much from southern england. and in crucial, can i say this at this moment, because these have been counted in counting
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areas rather than constituencies, constituencies we're used to, all of similar size, these counting areas are very different sizes. there's one where there were 37 1/2 electors. in sunderland more than 200,000. some results are more equal than others tonight. tom: it does look as if we -- we're going to have a very intriguing and perhaps rather long night. i'm going to say thank you very much for joining us and having had that great reaction and indeed the result from sunderland. let's go over to julie at the remain camp to see what they are making of it. >> the room fell pretty silent. just arriving a few minutes efore robert what, did you make? >> very big moment. leave doing much better in sunderland than they were hoping. and a big better in new castle. remain obviously one.
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always expected to win new castle. and you can tell here we're at the remain party. it was a party atmosphere. as soon as new castle it became subdued. when we got sunderland results, a bit of shock. there may be enormous regional variations as we go through the night. it may be the northeast has simply as an area come out solidly for leave. certainly in these early results leave doing rather better than certainly many pundits, the bookies were expecting. obviously going to be absolutely gripping night. way too early to make any serious predictions. >> these are big labor areas, too. >> huge issue. i have just been talking to , jeremy, ormer head
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very influential figures, and was talking to them about the growing division between particularly the white working class and the labour leadership. they have been increasingly concerned about immigration and felt that labour leadership didn't understand them on this issue. it looks as though many of them have been voting against the wishes of their leadership for leave. >> a development just in the last few minutes. the markets, see what's happening in the city. >> i would have been staggered -- if markets are falling in asia at this moment, that's what you would expect. i'm sure we'll get an update. it would be staggering if it wasn't going in asia.
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nigel may regret the signal he's been sending out that he's lost. i think we may see a flip-flopping from nigel all night long. >> pretty uncomfortable people in this room right now. >> yeah. when i arrived, before we got these results, they were pretty confident. and we have just been saying the mood has dramatically changed. there is now one of anxiety that the victory they were confidently expecting still get it, but if they get it it will be close. they might not get it at all. >> you can see -- >> it's going to be quite a night. >> nice to see you. thank you. tom: we mentioned, let's go over to joe and find out what the reaction has been to the news in sunderland and new castle. >> it's been quite a dramatic one, tom. i was saying earlier this
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evening the prevailing view in the cities they are expecting a remain vicktry. what we saw when the markets opened, this chart shows the pound relative to the dollar. started trading at 10:00. we had nigel sounding very pessimistic. initial exit poll. can you see the pound climbed. goodness what happened as those results came in from sunderland in the northeast of england. , the ned now by joe phone's ringing. how often do you see lurches like this? >> this is wauns in a year move and we'll see a lot of these this. move we have seen here is very, very significant move. it shows how jittery the markets are and how close this election, referendum will be. and the market will move on individual results. >> we see here the pound against the euro, you can see a similar sort of fall. dropping two, three percentage
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points initially. that is a really very significant move. this is the thing, isn't it, than anything now that goes against the narrative of a remain victory is going to cause quite significant chaos as people try to presumably close their positions. >> the market had a remain victory and if we see anything know the leave is going to win, we could see more moves like this. >> on what grounds was the market assuming that there would be a remain victory? because they had no drite greater insight than us on the street. >> i think they were betting on the fact that the people who were undecided would be risk adverse and would remain. but it looks like from that sunderland victory this could be wrong and the markets have made a massive mispricing of the assets. >> the banks, all sorts of institutions, pension funds in the city are watching what
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happens next. you must have modeled the sorts of outcomes. what sort of market reaction we might get. worse scenario what have you modeled? >> worse case we're going to see big moves. 40% moves in sterling. 20% moves potentially in the ftse and u.k. stock market. and big moves in gold. we have modeled and planning for significant moves and hopefully it will be the worst case scenario we have just seen this move and it could happen. >> 40% move in stirling in a single day? >> ababsolutely. you have seen the market is really, really concerned at the moment. and this is such a close call that if we do vote out and it's going to gain traction, we'll see moves. >> the fact is it's still very early in the day. we could seat pound bouncing around on numerous results to come. the bank of england is watching.
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clearly take a fairly dim view if it perceives any sense of disorderly panic. that's when the bank of england is likely to intervene. the early days, very significant move on the pound. >> thank you very much. and that is the view of the city tonight. it is hardly empty. you can see an awful lot of people at work sweating the outcome of this. and let's be blunt about it. that result from sunderland and the result from new castle before it has electrified this night. we went on air with the mood coming out of the leave camp suggesting perhaps they lost even thinking about conceding that they lost. well, forget it. that isn't where we're two hours on. john mcconled, john, this is one might say your area, sunderland. how do you read what's happened there and how typical do you think it might turn out to be for the rest of the country? and particularly for what one might traditionally call labour areas? >> incredibly close. turn around meetings all around
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the country. not north there's been a reaction against the state of the economy. grievances. people are cheesed off. their wages are frozen. identify the issue of migration. politicians not listening to them. in some excellent -- extent in some areas. in other areas individual grievances have been raised. that's mobilized people to come out. i still think it will be extremely close. i have always said that. i'm hoping it will still be remain and i think it may well be. but it is going to be tight. tom: when you say it may well be we have seen sunderland and new castle a bit different. we expected it to be more remain. it was clearly new castle and sunderland are not the same place. different issues and demographics. looking around some of the other labour areas you have been, can you draw me a picture how representative sunderland might be? >> i think it is representative.
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if you look at what's happening in the big cities in particular. where there is a solid labour vote as well. more remain than against leave. it depends on the individual turnouts in those areas whether that will carry the remain over this victory line. i have always said along i think it would be close. tom: new castle you would have expected a slightly bigger turnout, more enthusiastic -- >> i think there will be differences in individual cities right across the country. we saw that actually in some of the local government elections as well. unpredicted results. i think there's going to be some idiosyncratic results across the country. tom: are you regretting you and your leader didn't campaign more enthusiastically, dare i say, for remain? >> i think -- tom: you were luke warm. >> we were straight with people. we had to be straight with people. i didn't vote to go market. i have been a skeptic. i took the pragmatic view it's
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better to remain within. people wanted honesty. what people got angry on the doorstep about was both sides using exaggerations to project fear. when germany went on the t.v. these are my feelings about the e.u., i want to stay in but i'm critical and want reform. that's where most of the british people are at the moment. i think that's why they may just win on the bay siffs that -- tom: be blunt, be honest, be straightforward with people. we're at the point where no campaigning makes any difference. we're at the point where the decision has been made. how bad or not do you think it will be for all those people, perhaps in sunderland and elsewhere, who voted out thinking that their economic lives would be better. how realistic do you think that hope was? >> i think we've got to respect people's views from both sides of the equation. tom: i'm saying what would it be really like? >> that means we have to be honest with people. respect their views. if it is out, there will be a
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market reaction. the chancellor needs to stand ready to intervene if necessary. tom: doing what? >> support the pound. it might well be the bank of england buying assets. that sort of thing. to protect a longer term interest, particularly pensions and investments, etc. the chancellor needs to stand ready to do that. my own view is that some of the claims about recession were exaggerated in the campaign, and that's why i got quite annoyed about project fear on both sides. it will have repercussions. whatever those repercussions are, whatever the decisions, we have to work it out. we have to try and get a strategy not just where we tackle the economic problems but make sure that people are not where they share the prosperity than they are right now. a lot of people voting out are angry they haven't shared in what they have been told is growing economy. tom: one of the things you know. we're piling up debt at a reasonable rate. there's been a suggestion of course one of the immediate
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impacts is we will have to pay more to borrow money. the chancellor has indicated he will have an emergency budget if we voted leave. do you think that's reasonable? >> i don't think it's reasonable an emergency budget that increases the taxes on middle and low earners. the reason people are angry at the moment on the doorstep on whatever side they are on is because they don't think they have been treated fairly. they see major corporations walking away, tax evasion, tax avoidance. they don't see the rich people in this country paying their way. there is a real defendant of concern out there, as politicians we have to wake up to and start listening. tom: thank you very much for joining us. this is a good moment. we're talking about the economy. the impact. let's be honest, the night has suddenly shifted tone. i don't think we exspelted that. that's the understatement of the evening so far. i can see stephanie grinning my understatement. stephanie from j.p. morgan.
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you-all recognize the entrepreneur ruth lee. i think economics. stephanie, back to you. you saw sunderland. would it surprise you what you make of the market reaction? >> we saw that classifyingly exciting chart showing the pound going up. i said earlier i thought we had this actually strange serenity in the market the calm feeling of confidence we were marching towards the remain victory even if there is an understanding it might be close. any sense that that's not going to happen, as i said the last week's rally has set us up for much greater volatility tomorrow. i'm not sure i would share some of the large he numbers that had been mentioned, 40%. that would be a lot more than we would expect. thinking in terms of the immediate impact on the pound we're going to have a dramatic impact.
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that will have a direct impact on inflation. we would be expecting inflation to be up in the threes or fours in the next 18 months. almost entirely as a result of that change in the pound because remember everything from outside, all those imports, will cost more in pound terms. you have the immediate think the hit to the economy which may not push the economy into recession but we were expecting the uncertainty to mean maybe at least a one percentage point which is not very high. quite a big economic impact to consider. and i think a lot of investors will also if they take a longer term view they'll be wondering how is this coalition going to actually have a coherent economic policy when half of them want to be more open, more in favor of globalization, get rid of all those regulations, and the other half want to close the economy, have less immigration, somehow many of those voters in sunderland maybe want less global economy not more. tom: maybe i can see, and ruth, you argued that brexit has
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nothing to worry about. now that we might possibly a reasonable chance we're heading into this direction are you sitting more nervously? >> i'm nervously, a lot more work because there's going to be shock. remain would have been easier. there's going to be a shock. i'm one who believes you can't keep kicking the can down the road and you have to deal with things. this has been very much kicking the can down the road. the whole issue here, these results, are totally and utterly predictable because this whole campaign started with people frightening people, and furthermore, insulting their intelligence. because the prime minister decided for whatever reason, which is never really explained, to call a referendum on this. and if things were going to be this disastrous or disastrous as if welaiming, at the end,
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did vote against his wishes, then why were we having a referendum? his job is to keep the country out of harm's way. so nobody actually believed the prime minister. in fact, there was a survey done that showed of all the players in this referendum the prime minister was the least trusted. even behind nigel. so all the scare tactics got the reaction. tom: what do you make of what tomorrow will be like on the markets? we're at the point where it looks like the possibility, what's the realistic prospect? >> there's going to be a lot of uncertainty in the market. as we said, the markets this week have decided there was going to be a remain vote. and there was a possibility leave. you'll get the pound falling. we know that. if the found looks as though it's crashing, i think joe mentioned that, no doubt the ecb
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will intervene as well. they'll want stability in the market. i don't see looking out two, three, four weeks the pound will be that much lower than today. i don't share the concerns about the inflation up to 3% or 4%. once the dust has settled then the government will probably coalesce and start thinking about what sort of relationship, negotiations they are going to have with the european union and then we'll certainly, nothing will have changed. it will go on very much as it is. in two or three year's time, whenever, we when we get to brexit, it will be matter of having a decent trade relationship with the e.u. i think the head of the german c.d.r. made that perfectly clear yesterday. he wants a decent trade relationship with us. they have a lot to lose if there isn't one in terms of their industry and their jobs. given that reasonable trade relationship with the e.u., trade will continue. don't get this sort of
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armageddon-type scenario on the economy. once we're out -- tom: we have a lot of electrifying results in the last 45 minutes. let's see how those are playing on social media with nina. >> we saw three big spikes in conversations so far this evening. one as you might expect was after that big result from sunderland. >> yes. the new castle result and sunderland result generated big conversations. people reacted to that. the big one with nigel allegedly conceding for the first time -- >> we don't know but we do know he's been big news since 10:00 this evening. > straight away kevin tweeted, nigel, looks like remain. boom. that was the big moment when we saw it on twitter, 5,400 tweets per minute. >> big number. give me the context. what does that compare to? for example the euro? >> the one big political comparison is the independence
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referendum in scottland in 2014 when the official announcement came out when they decided what the result was going to be, we had just under 4,400 treats. this is just a rumor and we're already getting 5,400 treats. >> way before the results. thank you. facebook has also been following the whole campaign. when we talk about polls we're discussing thousands of people's opinions and issues and personalities. we're not talking about line. we're talking about millions of conversations. what's the big issue that everyone's talking about on facebook right now? >> to give you context, there's been 76 million interactions on facebook since the fifth of march up until wednesday. we have seen huge spike in conversation after the result. >> that's another big number. put that into context. take me back a year ago to the general election. how popular was that in terms of people talking about it?
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>> in terms of the general election what we saw was 78 million interactions. a huge number. what's interesting is to look at the topics that have been discussed in the last hour on facebook. across the campaign, the economy has been most discussed on facebook. interestingly in the last hour that switched to imgration. >> in terms of economy, we can see on this map, this is where it was talked about most. >> this is where that issue has been talked about most ooh cross the u.k. it's quite consistent right across the u.k. if we contrast that with the overall conversation and you can see actually the bulk of the conversation has been happening in england and wails. >> -- wales. >> which we might expect with scotland presuming to go remain rather than leave. >> yes. >> thank you very much. we'll wait and see whether the economy is the big issue of this referendum campaign later on. tom: thank you. it is important to remember this
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is a series of local contests. what matters in each county is not which side won but how many votes they banked along the way. it is that rare british electoral event where you can actually say that every vote counts. and mean it. understanding why a particular place has voted in a particular way will help us to predict the final result tonight. >> the country is divided into 382 counties. tonight once results is declared, each location will be colored blue for remain, red for leave. but the depth of the color will change according to the majority. strong blue meaning a heavy majority for remain. strong red, big majority for leave. no matter how strong the dealing feeling in any area, it is a combination of both that and the size of the electorate which will determine how big an effect it has had on the overall result. look at birmingham, for example, a huge count with an electorate of around 700,000 eligible voters. compare that to the smallest, the aisles of silly where we
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have just 1,700 eligible voters. and less impact on the results overall. let' add an imaginery results. the height of each bar at each count will illustrate the size of the majority alleved by the winning side. big towers with sol will i colors are combination of where strong feeling and loath of mowive have combined to contribute heavily to one side. therefore smaller towers with weaker colors show a counting area has seen a closer and smaller vote. having a less effect on the final result. throughout the night we'll use this map to identity most interesting places to explore. but also help us understand which parts of the country have responded to each of the campaigns. tom: that's how our map will help us understand what's happening tonight. we also divided the counts into interesting groupings. when i say we, jane, you, you have divided. could you talk us through what, how, and why. >> here is the map. what we're seeing here is lots
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of gray areas because on that map on the left-hand side we have lots and lots of counts to go. the beginning of a long night. on the right-hand side what we have there is lots of bars. these bars are ordered from those areas on the top left-hand side we think are most likely to vote remain tonight to those on the bottom most likely to vote leave. of course we're going to be pouring over those results. see sunderland there, dark red. we expected the dark red to be on the right-hand side of this list. that's why we said it was a surprise. new castle, you can't see new castle, the light blue there, voting for remain. not as strongly as anticipated. t the top we have gibraltar, orkney. that dark blue on the left and dark red on the right. what that will tell us is who is likely to win. is the blue side edging over into the right? and the battlegrounded in mill. look at some imaginary data.
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fill up the map. this isn't what we're going to see. we don't know. this might be the kind of thing. see that remain on the red side. that would give us an indication, perhaps, remains night. and see that pink area at the top there on the blue and the left-hand side, that would be giving us an indication that leave is doing better in remain areas. very, very early days. we have seen some interesting counts. that area in the middle the batting ground we'll be focusing on. not just the national picture can tell us the real interesting story. we're also looking at areas of the country. scotland, scotland's where we expect to see a stronger remain vote. we expect those bars to be blue, darker blue. and quite possibly to be larger making a bigger contribution to the overall result. as you said, we're looking at groupings. for example, an absolutely fascinating groumings such as those areas where there are few passport holders.
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these are the areas on the right-hand side. we think those areas with fewest passports are more likely to support leave tonight. we'll be expecting those areas to go red, pink. if remain starts to do some of those areas, it could be a bert night for remain. -- better night for remain. graduates are far more likely to vote for remain than leave. these are the areas with the highest proportions of graduates in the country. we're expecting those areas to turn blue. if they don't do that, if leave starts edging its way into those areas, then it could be leave night. then finally, for now, this interesting question of where -- these are the air yause where youkip is higher, you see undererland, we expected sunderland to vote leave. we didn't expect it to be so strong. these are the areas where ukip vote leave can he mobilize those
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areas of the country to vote leave tonight, then it could be good news for remain. this is all going to tell us most importantly going to give us a great i sight and intercase throughout the night who is going to win and why. tom: we'll be back to these graphs many times in the course of the night. thank you very much. we said at the start of the evening we'll be trying to get out, work out what you thought was happening. as we said a couple times in the last hour we have a couple of electrifying results. we suggest we'll have a long and fascinating night ahefment rachel, over to you. >> imagine being up in the air while all this is going on. we have had flights coming in from portugal, spain, tel aviv, passengers getting off desperate to find out how things are going. it's a reminder being here in an airport how much movement there is between here, the u.k., and europe. even further beyond. the opportunities that give but
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also the challenges. what we're seeing here in the north which is so interesting, i think, is just how many people are traditionally labour voters who have been telling us throughout the afternoon, despite what their leaders are telling them to do, they voted out. a bit of identity cry sifments three gentlemen that helped get to the bottom of this. i have john, at liverpool university. a betting expert. and peter, who was formerly cheeve constable of manchester. just a little while ago, no more than two hours, you were telling us you were sure this would be remain. having seen the results? >> i still think it will be a remain vow. maybe not the margin we predicted. the sunderland vote was a landslide. great hope to the leave campaign. new castle closer than we thought. we may be starting to see a
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great north-south divide here. london will surely go remain. scotland we're hearing rumors, low turnout because there's fatigue up there about voting. so that will be against the remain people as well because scotland will be remain. >> you are steeped in the ways of the people of manchester, what do you think is happening? right in the labour heartlands here. people are still deciding in many cases to vote leave. >> i think it's greater degree of alienation, greater impact from the loss of traditional manufacturing. i think a lot of areas in the north have not been comfortable with some of the liberal of immigration. feeling that westminster is divorced from the north. not been a fair sharing of spending. the range of issues there, transfer possibly into a protest vote in this referendum.
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>> professor, if i can ask you going back to what peter was saying about the fact we're seeing areas of scotland saying remain. and leave vote looking to be very strong in some parts of the northeast and the north generally. what kind of challenges does that present to us in the future on our british identity? >> it's potentially disastrous. it appears certain scotland will vote to remain and quite probable that england will vote to leave. that's almost certain to trigger a second referendum for scottish independence. the picture in northern cities will be mix. it's a lot of working class voters in the north. i spoke to several labour campaigners who said it's been a tough job on the doorstep. but i do think cities like manchester may offer different results from sunderland which voted emphatically to come out. it's too early to make definitive assumptions at this stage.
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>> it will be a good few hours yet until we know what's happened here in the northwest. that verdict expected around 5:00 this morning. but for people who are setting off from here tonight to fly further away, they may find themselves landing in a britain whose place in the world may have shifted substantially from when they left. tom: rachel, thank you. we have had our first results from northern ireland. i think i better begin with information about this. northern ireland as a whole, as a region is going to announce its result at the end of the evening when all areas have been counted. this is a bit unlike the rest of the u.k. that said we're getting the unofficial count figures from each area as they come to it. which are pretty much as good as the official figures. colin, could you give us the result? >> certainly. remain have won foil by 79 oints to 21.
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one of the most nationalist areas in north. obviously emotional and economic ties with the republic. it's just worth saying that slightly above what you might call path, what we're expecting remain to do better than we might have thought. turnout rather high than the general election. as it is across england, as it is in wales. in scotland, turnout is down. on not simply scottish independence referendum. we're now calculating that turnout across the country will be -- if it's 72%. the highest since the 1992 general election. when of course michael famously said the conservatives pulled more votes in that election than any political party in the history of politics in this contry. that record still stands. tom: can you turn anything into what we have been -- >> interestingly that prediction
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for turnout in scotland we have been talking before about possible referendum and voting fatigue with the scots. and giving them the need to come out. and any nifment they need people to feel -- tom: the leave campaign, one of the things i wanted to ask you for your perspective, is we know as we said a couple times, we know if we voted leave, we know we voted again, it's not clear what we voted for. you might say in principle, but how does the prime minister or whoever is in charge given the house is commons is a sovereign body, how does that work? play out? at how does the negotiator, whoever it is, know what he or she is negotiating? >> incredibly difficult. probably set out the steps for you. did put out about two weeks ago what they wanted to happen next. they didn't want the p.m. to
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trigger article 50 immediately. that's that two-year process. he doesn't expect the prime minister would trigger it. would he stay in place. spend some time. the problem would be the other european nations would want somebody else to negotiate with who they thought was going to hang around. even if the torrey party, come what may, remain or leave, we want david cameron to stay. the problem is elsewhere around europe they may need more clarity about how they'll deal with. tom: we have a result from the isle city. it won't surprise anyone. it's generally considered to be very much in favor of remain. perhaps a little surprising they didn't vote more in favor of remain. the isles of sicily. it's such a small electorate. no offense to the lovely people of the aisles of skisly, it's a great -- sicily. it's great police. maybe you can pick up.
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suppose you have won and new castle. does the prime minister realistically stay for more than a few months? is that plausible? >> i think he does. the one thing we do not need to [no audio] >> in my view need to have informal conversations with his european counterparts before we do anything formally. we discuss with them how we go through the process before we ever get to the point of triggering the formal process. that can be weeks, possibly months away before we do that. we need to get this right and carefully. i think having a change of leadership in the middle of that would be exactly the wrong thing to do. tom: you know as well as i do referendums are imprecise
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toofments you may argue this is effectively the first we had. we had the 1975 one. this is an existential question. we can agree. you have anle overwhelmingly pro-european house of commons taken in majority terms. the people who won this, how do you establish, we don't want the e.u., but what do we want? economic area? how do you set what it is the people actually want? >> you can draw some pretty clear views from the campaign. if we end up tonight seeing that the country has voted to leave, overwhelmingly i see three things that the country has asked for. firstly, it wants to carry on trading on a free trade basis with the european union. that we know is what the european union also wants. we heard that from the german equivalent in the last 24 hours. they want limits or the ability
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to set limits on the number of people who come and work here. and they want the country to be able to take back control of a key decision like forging free trade agreements around the world. i think there are some clear messages that come out, that have come out of the campaign. cameron will have a view on the detail, but i don't think it will be remotely realistic for members of parliament to turn around and say to the public -- tom: you would probably agree with me that the one thing considered tonight message to have come out loud and clear from the people of this country if leave is won is they want to control immigration. >> that's correct. tom: if at the end of the day the e.u. comes back off due consideration. fine, you can't be in the single market. how do you establish whether that's a deal the british public did want? >> what the single market element requires in my view is simply have a trading arrangement where there are no tariffs and where we protect our services sector.
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the reality is that we are the biggest customer for most european union countries. we buy far more from them than they do from us. we are, for example, buy 20% of the german car market. the german car companies sell one of five of their cars in the united kingdom. they don't want to lose that business. i think we can do a sensible deal that keeps us trading freely and do what the public wants and restricts immigration. tom: thank you very much for oming in to join us. >> tom, i'm here at the leave party at the top of a tower opposite the thams. nigel, you're looking buoyant. how do you read it? >> it's going to be close. who wins this particular battle i don't know. what i do know is we're going to win the war.
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because the genie is out of the bottle. there is no way that anyone voted leave today, whether we win or lose, will never change their mind. what we have next week, the most remarkable thing not what's happened in british politics in the last couple months, it's european politics. now we're seeing opinion polls in the netherland, denmark. even in italy. the population of those countries support leaving the european union. the project is dead. this british referendum stays forever. >> the win for remain in new castle was less than they expected. in sunderland your win was significantly bigger than many people expected. you're not yet calling the referendum result, though. >> i'm not. i still say we get big london results, if i was a betting man, i would say that probably remain might get by, but who is to say.
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win or lose, this battle tonight, we'll win this overall. european union is bad for britain and bad for the labour party. that's what sirnedland showed us tonight. it's a disconnect between what happens here and the rest of the contry. >> if you were to win the referendum, i know you don't want to call it yet, what is the future of ukip in that situation? in a sense you have seen a single issue party, what happens to your party? >> if we win tonight, what has to happen is the british government has to carry out the wishes of the people. and it will be ukip and ukip alone there posing electoral threat to make sure it happens. i say that because the games -- the irish twice projected force debate again. and the french and dutch rejected the e.u. constitution.
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so winning tonight is great. if we get the triade tonight that's wonderful. >> earlier tonight you complained about the registration period. >> i didn't complain. what i said was that the government managed to get an extra two million people registered because the website crashed. the government did their job and id it very well. >> if you were to lose by two million or less, would you mount a legal challenge? >> no. i don't think legal challenges are the way forward. after all that would presuppose the independence of the judiciary. you know whatever happens, there is not one person who voted leave today will change their mind. >> i guess we'll be talking again in the coming hours. tom: thank you very much.
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colin, a couple more results in this time from two areas. >> yes, both from the south of down there on the m4 corridor, lead is won quite candidly what he 5-55. 45-55.te surprised -- not right surprised by that. [no audio] extraordinary 2-1. all i can bring you in terms of this overall news is that we are looking at a very long night. these results are right in line with what we would think before
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we began as a 50-50 outcome. >> it is going to be very close. people want to go to bed early, it will not be that kind of night. i'm sorry. do stay with us. it looks like it is going to be a long night. just take a look at that 1.4 square miles. 175,000 people, most of them tong and likely to vote remain. the big question is how many of them would exercise the right. be lowve said there will turnout amongst the young general election, 58%. the people could well be the deciding factor. they simply would not even bother to register or vote themselves, i have to say, and i have voted to involve a lot of people as i have wondered wonder there,
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everyone i've spoken to has voted and made arrangements to vote and is engaged with this whole political process. why.ut it, tell me >> dairy farmer. better without it. >> in. as it stands being in, nothing is going great. by not have a change. and yourself? >> going out would be a disaster. we don't know what it will be like. >> you have just arrived. did you vote before you arrived? >> we doted this morning -- voted this morning. voted -- can i ask how you voted? >> remain. >> there's a polling station on
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the festival site, summary concerns that all of these young voters with them but be here to party and would not be exercising their boat. that is not the case -- their vote. that is not the case. most of the people here will not be going to sleep. the pyramid stage behind me, everyone here should have a good idea about how their future is going to look. >> in the dark and mud, thank you very much. waiting for results from kettering. you can probably see that, unlike a general election, you don't have everyone going up on stage. that said, it is turning out to be a somewhat electrifying night with the results we do have suggesting it may be very close indeed. hussein.to nina
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that, you gave me a little bit of insight about the battle on facebook of the eu referendum. to seeid some analysis thoseose people who like pages, what the paper bands are. queen andteresting, muse. >> and i think neither of must to make any comments about the bands and that. i think it was have strong opinions about what are the big moments. some people using facebook, what were they talking about most? have beens of people discussing the referendum. we have a graph discussing where people have been talking about it. >> this is from the beginning of
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the campaign, march. as we have been saying throughout the program, it peaked towards the end. >> i have to interrupt you, we are waiting for the result from cutting and we think we are about to get it. let's hear what is happening.
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pick up what was exactly said, did you get it? remain, 61% leave. not surprising. the local mp was one of those guys with the green and black striped tie. >> the world's just used tie -- jazzyiest tie. this is fascinating, what you are suggesting is we are on the 50-50 line. >> we haven't yet heard from big places in scotland. the turnout and glasgow appears
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to be quite low. london will be very important. , he mayd to kettering or may not have heard suggesting that we are in for a tight night. 50-50 line so far. what have you picked up in the course of the evening about the general mood? i think this is not a surprise. this is leave territory. mp who has been flourishing. not a surprise. before this result came in, we talking about maybe 65% to leave, so not quite as high as they were expected.
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and soffer, the stronger in as youan, not as high predicted. >> i think this is a better result for the in campaign. leave us and this was the best area in the country. >> we will have to wait and see, we will get some reaction later on from the lead campaign -- leave campaign. this is a regional cap. we will be monitoring the regional picture. a lot of this area is expected to be very strong in support of leave. >> favorite very rudely interrupted nina, sorry about that. >> it was kettering, i will let you out -- off on this occasion. me what about to tell this bike is. -- spike is.
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, we willoment illustrate with a video -- both there is a video. that isn't know whether positive or negative. million views. we have no idea whether that was a positive or negative. >> take me back to the big graph. this is one of those, we have seen a few of these, celebrity interventions. >> this was the moment that david cameron came out and supported the remain campaign. david beckham. people, doots of people like it or not like it? >> we have seen a quarter of a million reactions and likes and
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202 of those were angry. people were not put off. campaign, they sure lots of things. lots of things. individuals try to influence people on facebook. take paper the most popular posts. -- me through the most popular posts. >> i will show you the most 18-34 agerough the group. this the most popular video. what we have seen is this is also the most popular video with men during that period. message.a grassroots put up a post highlighting and people who supported the remain
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campaign and leave campaign. this has been shared over a quarter of a million times. >> a lot of people say that was important and the decision making. we are doing facebook live as you speak, if you have anything you want to ask neil, that he is. thank you, very much. julie is with a man who has run a campaign or to. -- two. >> at the remain party. a lot of people coming and going. .ne man who has been here -- [indiscernible]
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what do you make of where we are at? not going to sleep tonight. it is going to be a long night. you're asking us questions and i will give you the same answers. results.t me to draw some i think it will be a long night. i think that london will be important. honest, -- >> pretty fundamental divisions.
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>> we know that. >> if we are looking ahead, in a few days time. the first, us, i was i will forgive no one who does not accept the voice of the people once it has spoken whether it is by one vote, once it is taken, it is our duty to make sure that our country -- lose coming back if we are the he would not accept
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voice of the people, whatever and, outcome halfway, i don't mind. but when the british people have spoken, you do what they say. >> if that is a division along the lines of, we go would be new it would be tight. half the electorate broken. >> i believe in democracy and we do. when they vote, we obey. you make in a referendum definition. -- in the nation. you do the best thing you can. [indiscernible]
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>> thank you very much. >> judy, thank you. back to the desk. quarter past one, let's take a look at where we are. bring up the state of play graphic. you can see the turnout, 69.2%. we have had 11 of 382 counts. we have at this stage, lead ahead. -- leave ahead. said, -- we have said,
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it is hard to make too many assumptions. at the same time, we have had a few results that have been surprising. sunderland has made it interesting. lowencies have fallen against the dollar. it is still too early to call. leaveter what the result, has won the war. >> the most important thing, european politics. netherlands, denmark, italy 50% of the population support leaving the european union. the project is dead. referendum is change the landscape forever. had been honest with the voters about his eu reformations -- reservations. we have to be straight with
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people. i took a pragmatic view that it is better to remain. when germany went on the tv and , i want to stay in, but i want reform. i think that is where most of the british people are at the moment. >> stay with us because coming up, we will be talking live with sydney as the markets opened their new will speak with energy secretary with how she is concerned with results. there we can come back to you for a second. you have suggested that so far nothing0-50 in terms of that has happened to believe that one side or others breaking away. what will you be looking at in the next hour or two to give you a clear indication one way or another that that is beginning to change? >> what we need to see the result of different kinds of regions. the results have been concentrated in scotland in the northeast. need to see how the industrial areas of the northwest will
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behave there's an assumption moreliverpool will be far remain in newcastle and sunderland. of course, there is london where we have had some reports of high turnouts and high support for remain in the capital. because this is a national boat, -- vote everyone is budget once, it's the turnout. >> will have to wait and see whether london turns out in the way that we think it has. that has beentors true and clear through this campaign is that the norfolk people have not made up their mind. you have been look at the budget to try to assess what is in their mind. what have you found? >> we asked the 30,000 people in our survey what matters most to you in defining the eu
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referendum, that question, we got over 10,000 different answers in return them into work out. clouds. lots of mentions create big words and the words create small words. leavel took at -- look at voters to see what their major concerns were and here we have loud and clear immigration. it is more common when we asked these questions to see a spattering of issues. ones not just, to see concern. tos is not just a response the campaign, control around sovereign teddy and borders. -- sovereignty and borders. let's look at remain at it. you can see that some were. loud and clear, it is the economy.
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it is, almost the only thing in relation to the other concerns. the big question is, what about those undecided voters. answers they have become a you tell us which way they will go. the answer to that question is that those undecided voters were split down the middle. we also see them mentioning words like information and facts. people really wanted facts rather than all the spin they were getting. economy and immigration, the degree that this tells us how the undecided voters will go, may despise -- indicate habits. >> no wonder we are at 50-50. what's more to come. this is a great moment.
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abouthe questions there what people are concerned about. great moment to bring in fellow panelist. a journalist and leave campaigner. the and people getting registered to get out to vote. >> i love young people. you look at the figures in the fact that 1.3 million from referendum, they come to vote. will want to they have their say. >> there's a suggestion by young people and they're are great at letting their views be known but not good at turning out the vote. are you confident this is one of those occasions? >> this was, for once, and
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election where every vote counted. they know this is different. >> would you agree with that? young people turning out in big numbers. interesting this week, i've been talking to lots of older people in my community, people my age and asking them if they are engaging for the people and their communities to get them out there to vote and everyone has told me that they have really been talking to the young people and people are really registering. i did a program locally with a group of enterprising young people and return to produce a podcast for young people in one of the issues, they have been confused about the visible debate which looks like a lot of suits hunting each other. they were telling me that some
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people thought it was like a gang. one was red and one was blue. actually, i think once people, onceyes to -- galvanized, young people understood the issues, they were understanding that this was a vote of a lifetime that could change the country. it is about the next generation. >>, to ask whether you will worry this will be a young against old situation, we just , ard that south tyneside liver area the northeast. -- labor area to the northeast. that labor has not done enough to bring home the vote? >> most of our information about the referendum from newspapers and television. the story of the competition in the tory party, cameron versus
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boric. that is a headline grabber. the coverage of the labour party to region has suffered because it is not quite glamorous. you have stolen all the headlines and labor has suffered because of that. you have been rude, he called him a child, you think he has failed? >> everyone is a child when you are my age. [laughter] >> let's not go there. do you think he has failed? >> i don't think he has failed. there haven't been any sexy rouse that would make headlines. he has been consistent with supporters and that has been true of the labour party. labour party.
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it is consistently -- >> the worry that in the end, will turn out young against old? >> i'm worried it will turn out north against south. that is alarming. i think we could be a divided country in that be terrible. why, the northd has suffered economically. the south has flourished. push it has gone on in the south in the north feels rejected. not because of the european community, because of government policy. with drawers -- withdrawn resources, is helping caps off. -- north being cut off. the referendum gives them something that they can attach
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the blame. that doesn't sell so well in the south because the south is more affluent and confident and more confident in the spread of medical institutions which europe is a major part. -- political institutions which europe is a major part. ask, we have the remain victory which suggests perhaps there is referendum fatigue in scotland. this does a break is away from where we seem to be which is 50-50. do either be worried this regard to turn out as young against old? >> i don't think so. minded.dependently it is about what they care about.
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this young and old divide. is a marvelous right of passage for young people have not been engaged in politics before. broaden interest by people like you. this is a political issue. it is our lives. . ahead, ihink we are think i'm people are coming forward. goes, let's way it get to plymouth. the long-standing problems the fishing industry has had with europe, something about a stronghold for the lead campaign. , thewatch results sentiment of the levers has gone up and down. we just had a shot in the arm.
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we have the results voting for leave 54%. you think that is a signal that the southwest will go leave tonight. >> absolutely. .he bit undecided >> one of the most memorable tweets came today from jacob said trust the fish monger, not the scare monger. the story about the fishing industry has had some kind of traction, even if only sentimental. problem, let's go to terry. you are a marine consultant, working within the fishing industry, but you what to remain is perhaps leave might not have
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the grip they think. why should they stay? >> the southwest is skeptical of europe, no doubt. leave will win in the southwest. remain, i don't trust our government to deliver a better deal for u.k. fisherman than they are currently getting. >> were sitting next to the mp for southeast cornwall. we have heard some conflicting stuff tonight. ofn't seem to strike it down optimism. you have been out and about today, what have you been getting. you are lead campaigner. -- leave campaigner. >> knocking on doors. only a small picture i
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must say. are having a few problems with sound. we are expecting many more interesting results. is a litmus test for the lead campaign. -- leave campaign. back to you in the studio. >> 50. sorry about the sound. -- thank you. sorry about the sound. >> that is also present. -- not surprising. we thought it would go leave and it went leave. try to pick up patterns. fan historyas a big -- industry and a lot of people their money from car parts and those people were not persuaded
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by these warnings about the economy. that is what is so interesting. >> it is hard to draw out too many patterns. colette was making the point that it is quite interesting that they have spoken with a fairly clear and distinct voice is that they were talking to each other. >> the interesting rhetorical was remain,undee but leave got 26,000 votes. >> what you make of the turnout in scotland? referendum fatigue? or thing it would not be a disaster if we left and that we would have another referendum and leave the u.k.? >> maybe this is an indication that this does not have that
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much to do with us. it has all been framed and westminster terms. blue on blue battles have been awkward for the people in scotland. they are not terribly relevant the nation with only one conservative member of parliament. that would be my thinking. it doesn't look hopeful for remain in terms of building. every vote counts. 63 percent of people, 75% turned up. how to more votes would that how many more but with that have been? been?es would that have right, i'm here at , there was anister
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that in the remain camp momentum was with remain. show aly results do not very clear margin for your side of the argument. how do you think things will go through the night? >> i've always thought it was going to be very close and i don't think the results so far should be that much of a surprise. there's a lot we still don't know. i don't think anyone has information on where this is headed. i think it does show that we are divided country. it will be a challenge for whatever the result is. between cities and towns. city are likely to vote to remain. we have also noticed industrial
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towns and cultural communities are more likely to vote to leave. they recognize the division and genuine concerns of people who are voting out because they are angry about the lack of economic opportunity or immigration. the government has not listened responded. issue ofack to this parties, betting this would be a remain victory overwhelmingly. think he has got it wrong? the whole world is watching. asia,rica, [indiscernible]
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>> very close to the government, when you think we are? are? >> i think i know as much as you. but the remain camps model. [indiscernible] resultsthese big london can be very important. just a matter of a few votes. what does that mean? >> is good to be a challenge.
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the argument will rage on. as close that may turn out to be. >> looking to have a leave result, that is going to be very difficult for the country. investments pulling out. steady hands some to pull the country together. if we were to remain, which i strongly hope that we do, if that happens, it cannot be about business as usual. there has to be an understanding particularly and industrial towns and coalfields which have not been heard by the government. reform as a result. vote,there is a leave that would be the impact? >> people are watching this
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closely. i think that the fluctuations are just an inkling of what we would get to my. there would be a very big fall in the pound. for people watching, the amount -- might seem abstract. business is all around the country and even europe, how can they invest when they don't know what will happen next? campaign, this could be a negative shock to the british economy. we're seeing indications of that. >> back to you in the studio. >> thank you. the dong is for sure, not expect something like 22 on 50-50oney that we be at just where we are. that is not what they expect it
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to be in this referendum and it is an indication of how close and interesting this night is going to be. we have had another result from scotland. the remain victory, but again, a relatively low turnouts. turning into a theme in scotland. as you've heard from a number of people, that could be critical. in places like scotland. if remain does not turn up the numbers, then i could have an impact. , wee told me about scotland had some interesting results from them. 18 constituencies. we've now had to results from each of the communities. to strongly nationalist areas voting heavily for remain and to , and but those
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cases, voted to leave. gap,ve the remain-leave there also appears to be a nationalist-unionist gap. making of what you are hearing in northern ireland? picking up on what: the same. looking at the turnout figures that we are getting, we talked of beingn the program politically wary. eary.ea mid-sixties here. that is interesting. front, a veryl
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strong nationalist area. there seeing turn out dropping below the 50% mark. he had expressed concern that he had been campaigning for northern ireland to leave the european union. he was saying that there was a suggestion that they had hislized their voters and concern was that the nationalist side had failed to do that. if we take what he was saying there. that would suggest the production. >> thank you very much. and a story from northern island
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, they may not turn out the vote. let's get to wales. what do you think? what is the picture? is a surprisingly been along the lines of that i'm soanya early on. onwells is on court -- course to leave, one source told me as of the 22 local authorities, electric only for those areas might have voted remain including here. get resolved result by three clock or 4:00. 4:00.0 or labor source has said, has they are blaming it on the timing of the election so close to the national
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assembly election. we always for the timing of the referendum was wrong. that is the labor of you. -- view. on the other end, she says it wales votes to leave, place the political elite for letting that, austerity, not immigration is to blame. we were told an awful lot over the years that wales was pro-eu. that is nots say the case. >> thank you. still early today. there is any results
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sense that things are moving in a certain direction. >> we have been talking about different parts of the country and scotland and england. but take a look at this map of the story that is emerging. there is a red that we thought would go read have not and sunderland and south time sign -- they are made blue. let's focus on scotland. but we see their, turnout at the top. turnout in scotland at 64.6. that is good by general election gondards but not th -- not good for referendum numbers. turnout in england is much higher. 70%.
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places like kettering, if we take a look there, the turnout was 76%. the story that is looking like tonight, one of the recent it looks like perhaps leave is a lot closer than some people set of beginning is because the scots are not voting as high as we indicated they might. everything the vote counts. the lead votes are turning out in greater -- leave votes are turning out in bigger number is. -- numbers. there are plenty of areas in england that we still think will vote remain the turnout is very high. that could shift the balance back to remain. why the turnout is low in scotland.
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leave isking like edging ahead because the turnout muchave areas is so higher. we don't know if that will be the picture of the night goes on. pic is still go back to remain. >> it ultrasound to london and the southeast. -- it all comes down to london in the southeast. australia is one of the first two wake up from the results. >> the first photo been counted to determine if written will leave the european union. britain will leave european union. >> british prime minister up early eager to cap -- count the votes. news that is breaking in sydney. cricket similarly in hong kong and china. -- i waswashington
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hundred washington but we will wait. -- going to go to washington but we will wait. >> i give notice that i have certified the following, total 98,062.f ballots remainast in favor of 30,748. 67,251. -- >> there we have it. bellwether seat.
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nightifferent kind of tonight. we always expected them to go for leave. do you read anything into the majority? >> this is a pattern that we are beginning to see. although we are not necessarily surprised by the direction of the result, the margin to leave is bigger than expected. marginemain has one, the for remain is less than expected. this is still early. we are not heard from great parts of the country. it is looking much better for leave that at first. >> you probably would have expected that in the pattern of the evening. >> higher margins than expected.
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is industrial northeast. conservative mp in the south of scotland. constituency the kind of people feeling left behind. feeling that the government is doing a favorite. it was always likely that the issues would arise in the campaigns, whether immigration or economy, would play more to remain neededd the risk factor. it looks at the moment that people have not paid that much attention. from, turnout in the high 60's. a decent enough turnout, but not necessarily turning out the numbers.
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>> when you're talking about most of getting 17,000 to leave. just to get past the middle point. >> will get to the point where a very high turnout in london will change it. >> london has to come through. think about that, if we have a result where london has delivered remain, that is a sticky situation. you can tell a lot by who is firing shots at each other. tonight, it was like the labor side is firing shots at each other. he was talking about it, but i will not use the root term. -- rude term. one thing i would say is, how ,any votes are in, 1.4 million
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out of 33 million. the long way to go. >> the wales result, we were that scotland would vote remain, london would vote remain in northern island, wales more likely to vote remain in that would leave looking on the knife. any remain victory would go itself to london and scotland. >> were just waiting for the city of london result which is probably not good to tell us very much, but it will be a symbolic remain when in london -- win in london. robert, sorry to keep you
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waiting. at the americans are no doubt watching, believe vote creeping up. what is your reaction? >> the closer diskettes, the greater -- this gets to a brexi t, the greater the anxiety. a lot of factors at play. there's economics, politics, national security. there is real concern about what will happen when wall street opens in the morning. the last thing is a major economic shock. the politics of this, washington once a very pro-american voice at the heart of your. that would be endangered by brexit. there is concern at the state department and the gone that other countries might follow suit. maybe scotland might suit -- se ek independence and that would endanger the royal navy sufferings based there --
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summary and based there -- submarines based there. the entire political and economic establishment favors written remaining -- britain remaining with one exception, donald trump. written --to favor britain leaving altogether. >> we talk about the special relationship, perhaps too much, linksink of all the many of the intelligence world, foreign service department, there are huge degrees of links between america and united kingdom. the americans will be very irritated if we do bleed, attention beyond your -- irritation? >> i think it is more than irritation and anxiety.
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create a fundamental change in the relationship. burton is an important cultural, economic way. we also seen from washington's perspective, part of an attempt to try and stabilize europe if you have some kind of military muscular policy in brussels. trying to confront the research resurgent russia. on multiple fronts, the united states would see this as a source of more than grave anxiety and it read about british and -- recalibration of the relationship. mean the u.s.s would be seriously rethinking whether it's priorities in london or if it will move to , capitals like
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that instead. i think it would be a significant moment my moment of reevaluation of the value of the u.k.-u.s. relationship. >> thank you very much indeed. james come identity could hear the conversation, -- i don't know if you could hear the conversation, but this is the evening where leave could come out on top. so often over the past months about the reaction would be if we woke up to that world, what is your sense in the middle of the night about the reality? >> if they do wake up tomorrow morning and find that we are voting to leave, it will be a profound shock. when they went to bed, based on the polls and momentum, same as everybody else. what have expect to this would be a close call but we got away with it and let's think about what happens. if they were kept my morning,
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all bets will be off. it will be the most profound shock at the city of brussels and all institutions that make up the european union, the major capitals, berlin, paris, rome will have faced that is coming crisis ofthe existing the eurozone and migration. i'm joined by jackie davis, a longtime commentator on the eu affairs. what do you think this reaction will be if people come in to these results? >> i think a lot of people are staying up watching because, although the polls were looking positive, there was a sense this would be a close one. i think what we have to understand is they will not only be this may lose the country of the size and importance of the take, but also a real fear of
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what this means for the european union. their people talking about this being the beginning of the end. there could be a domino effect. not tomorrow or the next 203 years, but this could start a type that is impossible to stop. the first thing they will do is try to say we are dismayed and saddened to see the people of britain taking this decision. i think they will probably do is not do anything immediate. they will say we will wait to hear the british prime minister has to say when he comes to the summit next week. and what he tells us he wants to do. in the meantime, they will be meeting and touching to work out -- trying to work out, is this a u.k. problem, the rest of us are fine. maybe really needs of the to show how unified we are. some great new initiative.
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many others think that would be crazy. this would be a wake-up call about the problems another member states in the last thing we would want to see is people here brussels saying, what we now is more. they need to integrate. , more transfer union, but on the other hand, people are not buying this anymore. >> that is the problem. they would argue that we need to make our single currency work. we will discover at the british have left that you by tomorrow morning or voted, to tell complicated it is to unravel membership of a club like this where everything is so intertwined. to do that on the scale of the eurozone, a current site would be -- currency would be enormous. the thing for you to protect our
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currency. beinger feeling here would they would have to tell the rest of europe that we are listening to get the message. but they do in the long run, i none. what they do it but warroad [laughter] -- long run, i none. -- unknown. >> only came on, but people suggested remain would come home. we are clearly in the position where leave could win. not that they will, but they could. westminster now. >> hello, tom. side,uch on the remaining
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but respected labor mp, , it is too for leave close to call. most people would say. let's talk about party .mplications for all of this what do you think this result, ?f it is as close as it seems >> lot of concern. the big story tonight is the complete disconnect between labor voters in the heartland and labor it leadership -- labor leadership. >> just be clear, what you are saying is the conviction is that hundreds of thousands of traditional labor voters who voted for your side of the argument. >> we saw this the labor supporters were not into it with what the labor hierarchy was in and we're not leaving them back
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-- when he back those supporters. -- winning back the supportive. i think labor is going to have to look at what is going to do to get those voters back. end, the prime minister gets a win, maybe by it willlest margin, also be clear most polls seem to indicate the majority of tory voters will have voted against him and he will have therefore one on the basis of a coalition of largely non-tory. >> i don't think so. just over a year ago, the nation voted for the prime minister. he won a mandate.

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