tv Hudson Institute on Iran Sanctions Protests CSPAN August 16, 2018 5:31am-7:01am EDT
that women can't because they are women. the lack of respect is legendary. recruits, you hear them -- i should be sent to the fourth battalion purred it becomes normal to say derogatory things about women. that is part of the dilemma that women have in the marine corps. that is the culture that they are brought into. >> watch afterwards, sending a at 9 p.m. eastern. c-span, or history unfolds daily. 1979, c-span was traded as a public service by america's cable television company. today, we continue to bring you until to coverage of congress, the white house, the supreme
court, and public policy events and washington, d.c. and around the country. by yours brought to you cable or satellite provider. >> thank you all for being here today purred welcome to the hudson institute. today we have a panel on the situation in iran appeared we will at the protests, the sanctions, the regime -- purred we have a panel of experts. it is a great honor to host you all today. scholar -- independent iran scholar, marion , then the research health and
foundation, and mary m is the cofounder and codirector of the new learning institute for uranium -- iranian civil society. on the left is --. -- senior fellow, has a book coming in november purred of the temperature rising. i look for to be met. the jaw for being here today. we will run this like a sunday morning roundtable talk about what is going on and iran there will go to our experts and go back and forth. you will not hear eight to 10 minute dialogues. we'll have a lively conversation and we hope to cover all these topics and educate the administration on what to do and what not to do and iran, and how we can go forward. >> start with the near times
article where the supreme leader is throwing the president under the bus, and also blaming him for crossing red lines. and as an interesting position for him to take. i would like to throw it to you, first. to talk about the current situation or what you think is going on. then we'll start the discussion. >> that is a large question. i think the country is in -- revolutionary fate. the ideology, the governing brutal andis a both their -- and a sense. are not working. people have lost support, their trust.
through showing that masto menstruation in the country. asking for regime change. of, how many. of my younger years. the regime basically has been problems,resolve the economic, political, and the military situations. going over all of those as the panel discusses this. people haveis that lost confidence in the regime. you don't trust the regime because of the corruption. you don't trust the regime because of failed policy.
demonstrations is the difference purred this is a pre-revolutionary fate. >> i would add that the resentment toward the moderate, thenmers, is maybe more the hardliners purred --. we promised a lot of things, were a lot of hats. none of it has come true. the resentment of people who are considered -- they are the working poor, the unemployed poor. with a lot of overlapping social crisis. addiction, prostitution. severe social problems. they are the ones that, in late december and early january resulted.
they continue to feel this uprising that is nationwide. it includes everybody else as well. it is the result of several existential and moral crises overlapping. at a time when people expected some kind of dividend, even those of us who oppose the nuclear deal, why did we oppose it. this is going to satiate society. state, a buffer to the what it needs to be able to solve its economic crisis. the regime did not do it. the pocketed the money for themselves. fund a foreignto adventures and terror and annihilation of innocent people. people saw that.
they got significantly worse. it is this economic situation added on top of tyranny that is lasted for 40 years. >> just to piggyback off of that, it is no secret that there is social, economic, and political -- because of the territory. it is the reason you such a -- between state society. what is the december protest batter? why they matter is because it is a social base of the regime. the regime didn't always have to ply with money or with force. expecting, when you can get your social base to revolt, it is a problem for the regime. exposes the authoritarian nature.
of what isstructure called the -- regime or the oligarchs. there is that moment happening in the islamic republic. when you see the different protest, the social classes coming out, we saw the women's movement. february, youin saw the -- rivers in march. all the way through april. the bazaars are the people who bankrolled the revolution. in the half millennial, there's always been a alliance between the clergy and the bazaar. to power, that as when the bazaar father social .tatus weekend or it in the month of june, their chanting the same slogans.
they were different than what you and i were chanting. the new begin to realize that this is in trouble. society is gravitationally pulled a way from the regime. what you need to look at 2019, is the security forces. how the regime crumbled. what security forces are defecting? white of aislamic -- deployed law enforcement> what does this tell you about how the islamic republic trust security forces. this up to them to decide. as the economic ties shrink the walls sanctions, of the regime are turning
against each other. theory that we rally around the sanctions, and the major newspapers. clearly, they are seeing the opposite of that. are iranians not rallying around the flag, they the regime increasingly as they fight against themselves. even if the regime can unify on how to resist pressure, it can be expected to control the population we haven't seen major defectiveness from the regime. expectationer, this a set of iran, something major and dramatic what happened that
would turn things around completely. that hasn't happened yet. being crushed, more aggressively. or other figures, even defective to the west very publicly. massive reports of capital --. which is very telling. of regime officials sending their families to the u.s., canada, europe. that door is closed. all of these indication, but nothing major has happened. december was the beginning of something major. i would agree that the security
forces matter a lot. there is always a assumption that the best seizures with stand and fight for the regime. true.tion whether that is there can be a lot of dissatisfaction with security forces. there is not a lot of hard evidence to show whether they are very committed or turning into a regime. i think that would break sooner or later. november is the key month you will have-- -- blockading iran. purposes, it will be a full blockade of iran. is aodern economy, it physical blockade.
for the u.s. administration, the trump administration, i think it has whether intentional or not, adopted a collapsed strategy. there is no follow-up in terms of what comes after. it is up to to say, iranians to determine the future. the u.s. is very invested in the outcome. because it is strangulation the economy. if iranians rise up and come to the streets by the millions, i think it will be key what the u.s. will do and what signal it sends. but what kind of policies as well. is one thing to sanction iran and the u.s.. it is very effective. is it other to the poor opposition groups or decide
whether washington will engage the regime to force and other deal. or whether, once and for all, they will figure out what to do. i would like to thank c-span for being here today. what is interesting about what i heard from ali palace, -- all the panelists, there is a resentment toward the moderates. you said it was conceptually and trouble. i it actually and trouble? put this to all four of you, what should the u.s. due to accelerated, do this right, or stay away? thing that is smart and a lot of people disagree, when trump says he is ready to meet any time, that is smart third
--. on all ofe pressure iranian society. they look at donald trump and say he is ready to talk. why isn't he doing something? financialnormous pressure on the society and the regime. the lobbies in town are talking about hurting society. if that is true, then why are they doing all of the lobbying? true, that the regime doesn't care about the sanctions, and the sanctions only hurt the people, why are all of these lobbyists in town writing and appearing everywhere? what did -- spent 17 years of his life lobbying for one thing,
the removal of sanctions. they work to get the iranian regime to the negotiating table under the obama administration. they are working now. we don't know, to what extent. authorizing indirect talks. we know that he knows because he is seen how it is been in the past. he is in deep trouble. the only way can get out is if he negotiates. the, veryussed intensely, within the regime, how can they meet the demands of the united states? i will speak for myself, i have a responsibility to press hard for iran cannot become a venezuelan scenario. you have extreme economic collapse. the likes of which have not
happened in world history. it is similar to iran in its region. it is very advanced socially and economically. it went to the very bottom of the region on so many social and economic indicators. what is venezuela today? but jerry is in power in society is completely and chaos. what we don't want is for that to happen to iran. these sanctions are extreme. they are happening all at once. least, the iranian regime meeting those 12 demands, but ultimately, the bug our focus on civil society. for this government to go and
for a transition to a democratic government, that is the will of the people of iran to come about. >> fully present in making a mistake -- will the president be making a mistake? far, the supreme leader has played a good game of being all.fet all -- above it he is standing above it. he can say i don't trust it, i don't go for it. of course, the troubled ministration knows that her it -- knows that. if they indicated they will adhere to the demands, the administration has to say, i will talk to him. ideally, how many at the negotiating table face-to-face at donald trump. that is a humiliation for the iranian regime.
>> they are in trouble not just because of the problems in iran, but the region. the u.s. policy towards iran has been focused on what is going on inside iran. the sanctions are hoping to change the behavior to the regime. anyway are shape to regime change in. missing,u.s. policy is is the conventions. paying a service that if you syria, as mostd of you know, iran started intervention to oppose the opposition. those goals are achieved.
still, iranian state in syria. they wanted to parlay the opposition and to permanently basing himself in syria. challenge israeli powers influence in the region. the u.s. should say that is not acceptable. itselfs no place to base and said syria. -- inside syria. the commander as started saying that money has been behind. affairs inschievous the region. we've known that for the longest time. yet to transit then to a policy. do,de of what the u.s. can
with colleagues about the sanctions affecting the behavior of the regime, and affecting the protesters on the street. also, we should not forget about the regional dimension and interventions. that is where does the weakest point. connectix,ecessarily politically, you can do it. you can do it in syria, in yemen. i ran in the region, you're going to help the opposition. to have a much more effective way against the --. . -- it a started already started already? >> the u.s. government should listen to his people.
>> the commander is not commander iss the a problem. i have not seen that translated into policy. stress,ime under severe you're asking for trouble. by november, yet to make hard decisions in terms of wanting to continue supporting this. militias.se various these costs at up in the population is well aware. sanctions arehe also putting tremendous stress on iran. i do thinksition, the u.s. navy to do anything dramatic, just let things play out. u.s. is no reason for the
to hit iran anywhere because the whole position is under tremendous stress. the internal feuding. the u.s. is in a good position if they do not mess it up. >> a flickr with the treasury told baghdad -- if you look at what the treasury told baghdad, that is the pressure that we can put on regional allies. itself.telling, that in iran is putting major power in iraq. that they cut off financial ties, what does that say about influences. >> we want them to pay more attention to iran. point, one onthat the iraq issue, i still would
not underestimate -- i'm not disagreeing with that. if you need any proof of the deterrent effect of the sanctions, look at the exodus of european and foreign firms leaving. for those of you familiar with the academic literature on sanctions, especially what came out in the mid-to-late 90's, and a lot of that focus on sanctions. the debate in washington after 9/11, after banks and businesses seen to develop, you have the deterrent effect of the sanctions. becoming a tool of national security policy in a way it was not. the act of a closure has to catch-up to the way pistol is evolving. this is one broad stroke. one reason for the flip-flop of the --.
sanctions butike we will comply. just using the access to the u.s., because of the issues you mentioned. and that in turn, you had militias come out. coming out and saying, we're going to break the sanctions. all of these guys are coming out and saying they are chastising the national government for doing what is in best interest of the national government. if the u.s. is looking to take a strategy off-the-shelf enablement policy, you need to actually go after these and iraq and syria. that forces conflict with iran. it will be involved. it feelsnd goes until any resistance. thear for iraq is nothing national government, even caretakers in the position, they
make a decision. the threat network, the proxy network, the influence on the seminaries, the influence on businesses, may help us those sanctions. international had -- bind to the sanctions. and nato a la like turkey helps establish this massive sanctions . while i support the resurrection, ellicott what companies, and plugging those loopholes in advance. >> well said. we are looking at indicators and precursors to regime stability. you all mention indicators. what you are seeing accelerate the fall of the regime. what are some of those? the siege, the vigilantes.
in my talks, people that focus on the regular forces, the conventional military will fight with people. the new have the schism within the ranks. the siege itself, the lower ranks are for barely paid. they can decide with the people as well. two generals leaving in high positions. what would be an indicator of the exit? capital flight leaving the country. what are some of the things we would expect to see from this if the regime collapses? on they enforce customs money, becoming al qaeda on steroids? would they do something. you are all experts on this. i want to syria to say. >> very briefly, for several years, the regime has tried to
scare the people away from agitating for their rights. they point to syria and say, look at what happened to them. they wanted more out of life. they wanted their livelihood. implicit in that, is a threat that what we would do to you, to iranian society. we'll do it we artie done to the innocent people. whether or not we would actually ,o that, it depends a lot on plugging the holes in terms of the financial infrastructure. to plug the holes in terms of security. if there is a change in iran. one thing that should've learned is that when the regime had been toppled, hopefully through nonviolence. resistance. that, once the regime
goes, there still may be networks. there may be ways that they can terrorize the people throughout the region. i think we need to have the intel now. we did have the will now to be in their and do things that are necessary. pressuresue of putting on --. and the seized, in general, the armed forces and iran, is a key to the future development of the state. people on the street are putting .ressure under the regime there is no confidence in the regime to solve the problems. an economic situations to, they are losing the value in the regime.
people are doing what they have to do. demonstrations to hide the regime because more and more are looking to be, organized and coordinated. same not expect to have a kind of slogan against the regime, being pronounced and everything, in the phase a demonstrations, almost simultaneously. it is much more coordinated. the nature of the society is not of the people can organize, yet to organize underground. themocial media is helping with that immensely. had to coordinate. it is much more organized and coordinated than the regime would have expected. -- side, if the u.s. puts
pressure on the irgc outside the country, that pressure would force them inside the country, to change twice. what is going on and what has to be there for iran. if a demonstrations, gets out of hand. that is the time it we're going to look at, he was going to really defect from the regime. it is important to put the pressure on them in syria, and iran, and yemen, everywhere they are doing it, and that pressure would help not just the demonstration, but the people. the pressure from outside coming from the u.s.. within.elp is -- when obama bombs the
bases in syria, we saw all the deals go up in smoke. all this people lobbied saying that you care about the iranian people? the people of syria were being annihilated. effect, deal was in then we saw the money go to syria than israel bombed it. >> is a very important point. syria,aeli attack in that showed how unprepared -- was. after all of these billions of they threw rockets to is really from position. then they come back on proportional. the hit all of
installations in syria, there is no response. that brings down the whole image that the irgc is dealing for itself, no they are not. after all these things they said about israel, and how they will on mayisrael hits them 10 and today is late august. there is no retaliation. that would bring the whole image down. were customlis third the russians were there to protect the offense of operations. schisms,t exploiting we spoke to iran. it was felt. >> people in parliament start talking about how they do not like the russians. immediately, it fell apart. >> what is fascinating about
iran, the most fascinating civil is, the biggest disobedience movement i can think of. it has progressed quite a bit since december. you see massive protests in stadiums. thousands of people potentially protesting. i feel a good we people are way ahead of who we think they are. because of neither side. in recent months, i have observed the protest become more organized. they're happening in an interesting way. strikes, there on the second round. there's a lot happening iran that we don't see.
it is good to have the debates , what the u.s. harnesses the democracy movement in iran is way ahead. out massiveturn amounts of people, it can be very effective. i think that could happen within the next three months. even one of these major stadium protests, if everybody turns out into the street, you thousand people month spot. very briefly, the conversation is been held in washington. escrow go as he want to be of iran, is important to write that the threat. we do not have this temperatures capability. the iranians understand that.
that is why the balance of resolve is always more important than the bounds of capability. it is permanently slated in the u.s. is savior -- favor. old. at least a decade abroad, whatrks has happened since the uprising is that iran is doing -- not depth. . involved.ily i've -- other areas like yemen, these are occasional pickpockets. the depths of that relationship with iran, is instrumental use of the theater, against u.s. interests and against u.s. allies and partners. buildup to be this dinosaur when is a bounds of capability heavily slated on the other side. ,> going back to your comment
the biggest civil disobedience campaign we've seen, is under the threat of violence. if you look at the u.s. elections the day after the president took his oath of office, we had a big protest parade. represented 001% of the u.s. population. yet a received 20 47 news media coverage and it was a political event. iran, areests in estimated at 5% of the population. they are starting to be organized, they were organic, and others more momentum. 5% of the population protesting is the equivalent of 22 million americans marching on d.c.. that be a chaos event.
that would change government. it had media coverage and the international community, it would replace the government. iran, thecking in immediate coverage bill for western democracy and support. western media coverage. we are not seeing it.. need?o the protesters coverage,to media that is what i mention the security forces. there is a large a lot of cohesion and the security forces. seas, it was conscript it. that's why these forces are likely to go. it is important to note that there is still a deal. the numbers dropping people who support the regime in iran.
it is a places you need to look at. it is quite the death of oppression. it is every -- a protest. the to the protests and 94. the irgc them on enforcement together with police, a layered approach. you look at 2009, a besieged of vigilantes. it was snipers. men's on bikes with guns. they are learning. we are reporting how they are learning. -- they are shocked by the protest that we act quickly. lds up to 2017, the use of is instrumental. it would be few of the trip administration to go after the interior ministry.
they were after the minister of turkey, and the public of iran is not sanctioned. is interesting after all of these, we still are seeing all of these protests. this week's the 30th in the anniversary of the massacre of iranian prisoners. there are thousands of political prisoners who are actually serving the time. they were put in front of a firing squad and killed. members of the, ethnic and national minorities in iran. years, you see people
coming on the streets and at face of this oppression, it is getting out of hand for the regime. of course we have to be very situation see how the forces are going to use all of this pressure under control of what is going on set iran, wherever they do, the situation is getting out of hand. people -- this is not the situation that they see to the seas people on the street. it in the street. --under the disappearing another thing very miami of the anniversary of the prison massacre, there has been a lot of anniversaries and remembrances of the past. i'm surprised we never once
the modernizers, the nation builder. his name is being called in protest after protests are at the country heard the power base of the islamic republic. recently we had the anniversary of assassinations of the prime and a renaissance man. both very much beloved and respected. his corpse was found and created catharticof remembrance of the past and a urine for the past. -- yearning for the past. we had messages by a lot of musicians on the outside his music is listened to on a regular basis, but very much
censored, all given video messages of support the people who are protesting inside the country. a prominentdeath of actor before the revolution who is blacklisted and prevented from acting. there was a massive catharsis for the whole nation of old has been lost. identity, --tional a very prominent human rights defender has been basically imprisoned for so long, his whole life has been on targeted repression. while he is been in prison, his daughter dead of a heart attack. about how many people suffer for every one person who is a political prisoner. funeral, everyone was so aware of all of the pain that this regime has cost.
all of these things are happening at the same time. it is very important that through social media, wherever happens, the whole country and all the iranians are very much aware. i would argue that maybe these protests aren't so on organized. maybe what it is is that with something happens, it goes on social media it so quickly, that are onlames so -- slogan the streets. it doesn't take that level of organization. >> that is why is important not to call the protests. protests,economic they are distinctly political. they're coming out and think give me a more favorable exchange rate. everyone is looking, especially everyone is looking to publicly grab the third rail of this regime.
to fill up half a stadium and say it anyway. we're going to say that exact opposite to palestine. we're going to say get out of syria. for 40 years we've been saying that america is the enemy. we will say that the enemy is not america. this is the balance of resolve. the state knows in his contest that it is winning. the people versus the security forces are increasingly winning that balance by saying these things. role, ihat the media's think it would be great if the media paid attention. a lot of reporters say they don't have access to their not ,ase their, they can't confirm we can have a presence, that might be valid to a certain
point but i find it very surprising that in this day and age of information, the media cannot be more creative about civiling about disobedience in mass protests in iran. the --s a chance for family or the crown prince. there is some reporting but nothing major. revolution got so much media attention. almost 40 years later, you have a mass uprising. it really gets any media attention. communication has improved so greatly. many different reasons they have speculated why that is. i think the media in general has that theyis mode
cannot get out of. why does the u.s. get more behind the opposition. to -- withu have barack or see in all this is geared toward enforcing the jp 08. that applies to any group of people. seven that hasn't really changed. i think is changing slowly for a few in d.c.. but we're not there yet. >> i don't want to end on a pessimistic note but a lot of the people who are funded by the the u.s.rnment, governments democracy and human rights portfolio of programs, on the social media, either their project funded by taxpayers, they don't share the video of the protests. there is some fashionable sense
that echoing the voices of the people who are protesting is somehow dangerous. because trump is the president. what does one have to do with the other? if you believe people who want to be free should be free, the voices of those people. you should be sharing his videos. it shouldn't matter who the president is. >> this is built for western democracy support heard these are women's issues. the that minority issues. these are issues that western media has built. -- reporters push the jcpoa away. . criticizing the regime to be disloyal. of the obama administration. like you mentioned, why is it important because trump as president. shieldinue to somehow with this regime is doing.
i think we all agree that the jcpoa fueled this. if it wasn't for the activities outside of iran, there would be a jcpoa today. there is will evidence that iran cheated and the deal. the resolve the evidence that -- fueled this. a chance if you squander the opportunities from the jcpoa and feta focusing on us, is seven we should be able to get behind. as a media and as a government. going back on the point of how intelligent people and demonstrations chooser slogans to really hit hard at the regime mentioned that they're not calling for -- bird
--. who is much more recent, people are not loving russia because of the --, he opposes the clergy. betweens of coalition the clergy and the imperial court. russia's single-handedly ended that coalition. that is why they are calling his name and not his son who dropped sensealition in a limited , gave more freedom and much more to the clergy. they would be in his favor against the last. cost the same clergy that the collapse. on the positive note, you can
see the slogans are very intelligent. based on the theory of iran, are not just an economic deal. it is highly political. that is i think this is pre-revolutionary in the country. if the u.s. gets behind the protest, somehow that would move people towards the regime. none of you agree with. if the u.s. got behind the --test, what it move the the towards the regime? >> united states government is are to be having protesters. these sanctions are a huge boost. whenever i talk to people inside the country and i talk to very different kinds of people, there is a expression as to how are things. they say, thankfully things are bad.
we are an economic collapse, thank goodness. this is what is fueling everything. they do not blame donald trump. they realize the reason they been suffering. they understand the sanctions are a direct result of what the government and regime is doing. the government is already behind the protesters. they are to have a regime change policy. oh need to be careful of is that we need to maintain that and moral clarity. unfortunately, we do not have a ronald reagan in the white house. someone who leaves in the power of freedom. for freedom, equality, justice. that is not a good thing. we have pompeo and nikki haley. i wish you would talk more. it is already there.
oese careful about is to make sure that the government does not manage to somehow convince the united states that it is abiding by this and that and that trump doesn't get happy that wanted to make a deal. >> what mistakes could this administration make? >> mixed messaging. that is artie happened to some extent. i will make it is necessary. u.s. actually making a public gesture would be very helpful. if pointing a special official on matters. it would be helpful in sending a message. overall, consider what comes next is very important.
opposition the u.s. should support should be clearly designated. it can be secular in full democratic. no more of these guessing games. those policies need to be firmed up. >> these are my recommendations. we have a two-year window is the president doesn't get reelected. will the regime play the waiting game? >> it could try. i don't know how i will survive. in these and economy to survive. the people are not going to put up with a situation. if they do, it will became asked. we talked that potential
scenarios and people fight syria, iraq. because forurprise a lot of reasons, the regime created the frustration syria. there are other stereos -- scenarios as well. yet the collapse happened with the soviet union. regardless of the amount, it will be very chaotic the next few years. ande will be mass violence a lot of fighting within the regime. new groups emerging. i wouldn't say that new groups won't emerge. he said, had her the anarchists? i said who knows, there is so much use in anger.
anything could emerge in iran a. -- iran. it will be smooth at all. there be a lot of uncertainty. you'll see things that will shock us. the last few months, i have seen ,hings that are very surprising that caught everybody by surprise. >> to give me a couple of those things? >> dynasty was surprising. it was always there. not only the rejection, but the republican clergy as well. one thing to consider the u.s. are in the opposition group, is how to allow the clergy and the guards to walk within the regime. it can't be all punishment. there has to be a positive reason for people to defect.
the class people and iran are deeply in trouble more than anybody. in --dy was tell me that there was not one cleric in the entire city. there -- they are afraid to come up. -- it is not the u.s. responsibilities. >> it would post -- push into uncertainty. decision,ve to make a the people of iran want a regime change behavior, they wanted to change. because they have experience. 30 years of moderation.
it doesn't work. theuse it moderates reformists, cannot change regime behavior. hard to change behavior. they failed. that is what this regime needs. republicl -- of that is in power. remember in this town, not long ago, the regime change was a dirty. one that is what they are saying. i think once a frog, go except that this is not about the regime change, is that the change in the regime. somebodye do, but should do everything in their
power to help that. including, limiting the >> including limiting outside influence in the region. >> i think regime change still is a dirty word, which is why there is so much of this great space in what the administration -- gray space in what the administration's policy is. my advice to the administration is pushing weight from the table -- push away from the table on that debate. it is up to you to change the paradigm. up the region with a slightly better deal or the region will collapse. it is up to the administration, but the administration must be able, and willing to take its
cues from the street when necessary. i did not fall for the administration in its 12 points. those are all about irans policy.gn security the u.s. has had issue with iran -- foreign security policy. these are the manifestations of the failure of the policy does far. there is an absolute need to change the regime's behavior. once you get to supporting the iranian people, you should be able to stand up for the iranian people rhetorically.
and they are going to rally around the flag. next you have to do targeted sanctions against keep members of the regime, right? you can have not just cannot have a nato allies interior -- cannot have a nato allies --. we have to go after all the regime officials. three, make sure the communica tion support is still there. you want to major they can communicate freely, because the assumption is that if they communicate freely, the things that result from iranians on the streets is more in line with u.s. interest. publicly accentuate the cleavage that already exist between state and society. what the islamic republic of iran habitually does is not in the national interest of iran. we have qualms with the trump administration in the middle east, leave it or not, but no administration has made this point more than the
administration. the government of iran is not putting iran first. when you are putting the assad regime over the well-being of your own people, you are not putting iran first. when you are having this mediocre, watered down deal about the fate of the caspian sea, you're not putting iran's interest first. the islamic book of iran is a poor steward of the -- republic of iran is a poor steward of it iranian national interest. never is more in common with the iranian and the american government and the american people than meets the eye. >> so i wanted to say something about 10 sentences ago. it doesn't make any sense now. i wanted to go back and say, we have regime changes.
you are telling the administration to stay away from the regime change in order to assuage reporters. >> you have to get the policy off the ground. i don't know if the policy is regime change. >> the policy is regime change by not calling it regime change, which always gives us that -- it is brilliant. >> give the best of both worlds and a lot of flexibility, openness. it leaves the door open for the iranian regime to think that it can actually meet the 12 demands and have the sanctions lifted. if you say from the get-go that you are for regime change, why would they do anything about the 12 points? why would he do anything? i wouldn't. >> the 12 points don't change anything we're talking about. it would shore up the regime, though. wouldn't that be a mistake by
the administration to say that the 12 points have been met, and the regime is fine? obviously i would love tomorrow to have a democratic republican in iran and this be over with. it would be a significantly different kind of government. it would still be an oppressive regime. i don't know how many people are familiar are remember what most of which was bombed by made of -- most of which was bombed to vic was bombed by nato. he was toppled two years later. everybody looked at him and said, you are weak and ineffective committee were corrupt -- ineffective, you are corrupt. we have nothing because of this bombing. the 12 points are like the nato bombing of syria. >> even a regime change in
baghdad, they go to the negotiation table and take that seriously. it is not that if they think that u.s. is in favor of the regime change. they are not going to sit and negotiate. even in baghdad, the regime change they sit down and negotiate. i guess we are beyond that, in a sense that people are saying that even if the regime accepts as well points, keeping the repression in iran is not acceptable to them. >> i think we are beyond -- let's doe are beyond, some reform here, some moderation there, some change in foreign policy here and call that iran policy. that is a nonpolicy. and then they are talking about regime change but they really want to have regime change? i don't see that.
it doesn't take much. >> when i saw the 12 points i thought this is not going to happen. [laughter] i still hold to that. i don't think it's going to happen. in terms of setting u.s. policy, it is smart. >> 12 points are huge. >> i am concerned about the -- making. >> they could take their time making -- i think each point might take six months to one year. they want to engage that process. >> that would outlast the trump administration. >> any administration. >> but the sanctions won't be lifted, so as far as the regime is concerned, they aren't getting anything. >> on the question of regime change, gene sharp talks about what is happening in iran basically. a country can have a civil disobedient movement or
political defiance and still be supportive from the outside. just because iran is having a democratic movement does not inn that u.s. involvement any way means that the u.s. owns it or it is invalidated. that something we have to keep in mind when we use the words regime change. >> so it's a mistake to say regime change? >> we are very loaded to call into mechanized u.s. divisions rolling into a wreck. we aren't -- iraq. we are not talking about that. this is different. there are a through z options. this tothe will doing people doing this -- people doing this. the u.s. assigned it
nonproliferation agreements with the soviet union and still -- the soviet union, as did moscow. there is no reason we cannot apply pressure. >> i think that is the model here. >> -- came to power with the mother of our regime changes. those guys are not the ones who are saying regime change. they came to power through a regime change. so a regime change in the islamic republic did not include 135,00 u.s. troops in the streets of toronto -- tehran. it did involve millions of people on the streets protesting. the regime changed is not necessarily mean that you have to put --. >> not at all. >> nobody is calling for that.
it is interesting that the regime that came to power through a regime change, not to them regime change is a dirty word. >> it's always like that. totalitarian regimes tend to be the result populist uprisings. the populist uprisings become these totalitarian regimes that anything they do is towards preventing a popular uprising. one thing to keep in mind is that there has never been a democratic movement that has succeeded without outside support, without at least solidarity. the american revolution supported by the french. south africa, the sanctions were called for by the people of south africa. the whole world was mobilized. the fall of the iron curtain and the fall of the berlin wall, and the break with coming is a command free, -- break with
was strongly supported by reagan. i remember it all in the nightly news. all of this stuff was the nightly news. why are the iranian people supposed to be different? why is it that it is bad for the united states government to say to a muslim society, that you deserve better, we know that you know that you deserve better, and we are here to help you, we want to help you. all of this is bridging lobbying -- regime lobbying. all of the academic experts have listened to this lobbying. when the green movement happened, we had these great professors, probably really great hearts who wanted to do the right thing, but they went and told the obama administration, don't do anything come don't say
anything. that's exactly what the obama administration wanted to hear. he had already started secret negotiations. the only thing he wanted was the iran deal. >> let's look at what the elites thought, what influenced them most. we know very openly what influenced the people on the street, but do we know what the national security decision-making apparatus thought in poland, romania, in iraq, in the soviet union? iraq, gorbachev. [laughter] study what kind of fear? how did the clerk look at sentience -- sanctions? that is my two cents. he knows all the tricks in the books. >> i don't think he studied?
>> he's a literary fan. he's at least read it that -- some of the great russian literature. >> is he implementing a strategy that will keep the regime in place? >> i think his strategy is continuing the strategy, a regime belt on that many contradictions, a could collapse 50 years from now, i have no idea. the success of that is continuing on many line cash the line.e -- the -- it's going to be a total failure. >> right. >> maybe he will die first. >> it will be judged a failure now and it will be just a failure when he is gone. >> will rouhani survive? >> physically? [laughter] >> no.
that's another option. how could he go away? he could be asked to resign or the other way. scapegoated.g -- in his latest speech defended staying in power, saying that the enemies want to -- you know, they are the ones behind the collapse of the government. rouhani more and more is becoming a nonentity in iranian politics. >> these people who know how to pistols,lish, they are -- his tools, and he uses them when he needs to use them. the question is whether he will use them now. is a different time?
how many times it is -- going to go to europe and be told nice things but no contracts? >> right. >> you know. >> yes, i think rouhani is already done. what he offered iranians was a possibility of a better life to what he called moderation. that failed completely. he has really nothing else to offer at this point. if the other alternative is something more -- worse. like his last opponent in the election. is. going to get worse the economy is going to shut down come november, so was the difference. -- what's the difference? those offices are basically nonnegotiable, so he might just stay out. it does not really matter that much, to be frank.
whether even the guards take over officially or not, and make they areions already, terrible decision-makers when it comes to the national interest. it his own regard, and his own weight. >> right. what mystics -- mistakes could regime make? are they making them now? >> can i say this publicly? [laughter] >> tell the regime how to succeed but daily and -- by failing. >> or how to --. got around to answering the other question, which was the trump administration. is driven by strategy and goals. so take the goals, push away from the table on the regime change. you have to move swiftly towards the goal.
that is more -- what she said about the soviet union is the more adept response. don't just think reagan, think truman under george h.w. bush. rocks crack on the street overtime. they are pretty sturdy but they crack over time. concrete cracks over time because of the drastic changes in the chemical and whether -- in the chemical weathering. there could be change introduced by form pressure, and giving offset to the form pressure. think this strategy, but know iran says iock --ira want to stop missiles and flight is., know what a bad deal we did not use the word uranium
once. all of this situation was begun by leaving the nuclear deal. know how toran hoodwink american democrats or republicans. you come in and look at this carpet, i can save this, no offense. don't expressed a lot of interest in this type of deal. keep the high bar, keep the pressure. the fact that the u.s. would sit down with iran to offset the pressure system the europeans, we also need to help -- says to the europeans, you also need to help. the europeans have not designated a single entity since 2012 or 2013 that was on the wmd, nuclear, terrorism file.
why? they were going to designate 15 and decided not to in the end. now we have a bit of a transatlantic split. the weight of u.s. intentions is going to be driving the train here, but we have other interests in the world besides iran. you have to adjudicate what is hen.rtant and w the regime has not begun to test the full range of its missiles get. there have been zero naval harassment in the persian gulf. >> those actions lose your. those actions -- europe. those actions lose support. >> the one thing that would lose europe is formally stepped out of the boundaries of the jcp a. a what i do like is
disconnect between european governments and european private sector. european private sector says note, european governments -- no , and european governments say go into iran. ofac, big a very small group in the u.s. government was whispering don't. >> including american banks, even didn't listen to k erry. >> the regime has a big appetite. right. >> at the 19 somebody eight vienna convention -- 1978 the 1978 viennation -- convention --. it was a treaty signed between lenin and a --, making caspian
50-50th surface and floor between the countries. that treaty was re-signed when the soviet russia became ussr. collapse ofy of the the ussr, that treaty was enforced. iran could have argued that still principle of continuity would mean that iran would keep its 50% and the other 50% would be divided among the four parties in the neighborhood. they could have argued that because they had the convention in vienna in 1978 on their hands. they did not. this is becoming another thorn in their side, because corruption and political repression was the ones that people were mentioning about what this regime is capable of doing. of what they had promised.
-- they are incapable of doing it. at least they thought this regime was --. the mistake they made in the caspian sea, they are really pulling the rug under their feet. the regime can make mistakes, all in all, including a europe. airbases in iran. >> it that a mistake for the survival of the iranian regime? or is it a survival for the iranian national interest? >> the regime did that because they need russia. they are ready to fail iran? >> they don't care about iran. they care about staying in power. it's like a mafia. >> during the high of the demonstration, you do these things and are now telling the public that you are not only
corrupt, but are also in the pockets of the big powers, like russia. >> that vindicates the argument. the islamic republic of iran is a poor guardian of the iranian national interest. the united states does not have issues with that the national interest of iranian. it has issues with the way the leaders of the islamic republic acts on those issues. this is the greater talking point. >> i think the biggest mistake the regime could make is when it comes down to the time it has to make a major decision on massive use of force, that if it goes in that direction, it's not going to really solve the sense of crisis. i think that's the worst decision it could make, for itself and for iran if it goes down the road of violence, because you have a very deeply frustrated society that will
explode if it's confronted with violence. i don't think iranians are just going to fall back that easily. people like rouhani that claim to have -- to be more logically inclined than their opponents within the regime, if they realize that i think that's important that there is no continuation if they use force. i don't expect people like that to want that ultimately. i think the regime has a lot of crazies that have said they will burn iran down to the ground, and they will. as a whole, if the regime goes down to the ground, that would be very unfortunate. >> so far i think it's very clear that -- has learned from history. i think he is a student of history. >> not a very good student, though. >> i think he is, actually. i think soviet and russian history he has studied deeply. he realizes it is the age of social media and has not allowed
massive violence and the kind of visuals that can relate cost him legitimacy and lose europe as you said. i think we can expect him to maintain that sort of discipline for the regime. i think to answer your question about what kind of mistakes, we are at a fortunate position in that we have all this civic mobilization, this galvanize a should of popular will test galvanization of popular will against the regime. not because the regime has made a tipping point kind of mistake lately. it has been the outside pressure, the economic -- the weight of 40 years of totalitarian rule that can only get you to be worse and worse and worse in terms of the morality of the state, the corruption of the state, in terms of the ability to respond to crisis, the environmental crisis, the social crisis. it's the weight of the 40 years of that kind of totalitarian power that is causing the regime, not a specific kind of mistake. if anything, i think he has been
very smart, very astute about history. i don't think he is going to make these big mistakes, but i think he is going to lose, because the weight of 40 years of totalitarian tyranny combined with these massive economic sentience is just too much for any kind of totalitarian regime to be able to sustain. >> regimes could change without any violence or without much violence. that's what happened to the soviet union. >> we can think about all the possible negative possibilities, but we can also think about all the ways that encourages kind of dissolve. we have a transitional government and them a clinical -- democratic rule. regime is not worse than the soviet union or czechoslovakia. those were very repressive regimes. >> i agree. it could go on that correction -- direction, but thinking back
on the history of iran, i can't think of any historical event where there has not been major violence. even the revolution there was a lot of violence. >> not a lot of violence. it was a nonviolent revolution. >> no. >> there was some violence during the revolution. that's not mass violence. heaven."d " fall of it's really well documented. i don't think there's going to be a peace boat collapse of the regime that peaceful collapse of the regime -- peaceful collapse of the regime. that is one possibility among several. >> in the time it takes for the regime to collapse, we won't see coming and it would just go. >> you have to consider that iran is a very deeply divided
society. there are still a lot of people who believe in the regime and its message. they will beat up a skype was common -- scarf less woman. there are people there like that in iran. just give them arms. they will defend what they have to defend. i don't see how that all goes away. that this regime has built database the regime has built -- base that the regime has built completely shrinks away. >> it has happened many times in history. >> we have a heart stop that 1:30. i hope this has been interesting to everyone. my favorite quote of the panel thankfully is really getting better -- "thankfully, it's really getting better -- getting bad." i would like to thank all of my
panelists for being here today. [applause] it was great. thank you all for coming. >> here are some of the events we are covering thursday. on c-span, a senate homeland subcommittee holds a hearing on unaccompanied immigrant children. thean2 has live coverage of senate as they consider the judicial nomination of marvin quat obama to the fourth circuit court of appeals. on c-span3, members of the fcc, including the chair testify before the senate commerce committee. live coverage at 10:00 a.m. on "washington journal
," a look at efforts to prevent gun violence in chicago and other u.s. cities with marcus mcallister of cure violence and raphael mandell --'s the manhattan institute's -- the manhattan institute's rafael mangaul. ♪ host: good morning, everyone. 16th.thursday, august we are going to start with your thoughts on gun violence and what should be done about it. read the headlines about chicago and heard the president talking about the murder rate in that city. while the numbers are trending down, it is not just chicago. baltimore, memphis, detroit among others dealing with violence. should the government step in or should state leaders be responsible? is it more laws that are needed to restrict gun ownership or