tv Washington Journal Jeanne Zaino CSPAN October 30, 2018 8:46pm-9:31pm EDT
to be grateful for all of those challenges and how they make us those are as a family. "afterwords"watch on "book tv" on c-span 2. ♪ announcer 2: this week on "washington journal," we are looking at battleground states, the most competitive races of the midterm elections, minnesota, new york, california, pennsylvania, and florida. join us for a live campaign 2018: during "washington journal at 7:00 a.m. eastern on c-span. pedro: we continue our look at battleground states, new york state being our focus. joining us from new york city is jeanne zaino. she is a political science professor. good morning. jeanne: good morning. pedro: what in your opinion would make new york a
battleground state? not always aork is battleground state. it is not always critically important to the outlook in washington but this year we have several close races. you talked about some of those as we look at the house. we are watching those closely. these are districts like you mentioned, like 27 which went for donald trump in large numbers, very conservative district which now has something of a challenge on its hands, or closely watched the 19th evenlyt where you see an split district and you see a republican with a real challenge from a democrat. so as we looked next tuesday night, the question is how do they fan out? is this a blue wave that is allowing new yorkers to sweep out incumbent republicans
whether 11, 19, 22, 27. all of them are districts to watch. is there any evidence this blue wave is happening? if you look at the special elections and primaries, you can see increased turnout amongst democrats, particularly amongst progresses. we saw that. if you look, there are a couple of races to watch. we saw special elections in westchester county, a county just north of new york city where you have the incumbent county executive there. this was a special election november 2017, who was assisted -- defeated by doubled digits by a democrat. this was a republican incumbent, two terms who had run governor of the state, who had lost to governor cuomo, ran again for county executive and lost.
it wasn't so much the loss but the scope of the loss. the fact that it was double digits, the fact he was quite popular, and what we saw in some of the ruling was that in fact many democrats said four out of 10 were saying they were voting against donald trump for a county executive race. we saw that again with another special senate election where you had a democrat win by double digits. and again, some of the polling we saw suggested a sizable majority of democrats out to vote against washington, dc, against republicans and specifically donald trump. so you look at that you couple , that with the fundraising and you couple that with surprises we saw in the primary both in june and september, because we remain the only state in the nation with a split primary. you saw increased turnout and you saw a very energized progressive left. now it did not turn out that way for the democratic primary for governor here in september, but
you still had a big challenge to to the governor there. those factors latest to believe there may be a blue wave. i am not suggesting it is going to be a tsunami. but i do think in at least a state like new york and california democrats are , energized on the left to get out and vote against the president. pedro: jeanne zaino is joining us to talk about politics involved when it comes to midterms. if you have questions for here, here is how you can contact us today. for those of you residents of new york, 202-748-8000, all others 202-748-8001. ,professors i know, -- professor zaino, what about turnout? what is the history? how does it play out for the people involved this time around? jeanne: new york state has had very low turnout in the last several elections compared to the rest of the nation. it has been a real challenge for us. and there are several factors to
contribute to that. we do not for instance have early voting, which dampens turnout. we do not have same-day registration. we have a closed primary. all of those factors make it, you know lead to a dampening of , turnout. we have had turnout sometimes third, fourth, fifth, worst in the the nation. it has not been a good story in terms of turnout for new york, and we can do better on that front. that said, in the special elections and the primaries we have seen since 2016, turnout has been up, and you look at a case like new york city. we understand the board of elections has ordered as many ballots as it would for traditional presidential years, expecting potentially a big turnout this year. so we don't quite know what is going to happen on tuesday, but people are expected in new york. we are going to see a rise in turnout, and we would do much better in this state if we changed our registration
procedures and made it easier for people to turn out and vote. we don't do that. i will give you an example. my students for example as you looked into the primaries last time around, they had to be registered in some cases many months earlier than the primary actually occurred in order to participate. as you know for young people, transient populations, but most people, they are not focused on these races to register months and months in advance as new york requires. so we could do better on all those fronts. that said, i think we are going to see a much improved turnout this year. pedro: is there a sense of knowing if you see that kind of turnout that you talk about, who benefits the most in terms of republicans or democrats, or does it depend? jeanne: it does depend although this is a state with more registered democrats than republicans. we are one of the states that requires you to name your party id when you register so we know we have many more registered democrats. so we should if we see a large
turnout, that should help the democrats. of course there is always the statistical chance it is the opposite. if you look historically on all midterm elections, it would be the party out of power that would benefit from that. so we would most likely with an increased turnout see a benefit to the democratic party. pedro: about 20 million in new york, governor cuomo talked about democratic governor. , the current house delegation is 18 democrats, nine republicans, and when it comes to the 2016 presidential race, hillary clinton easily winning over donald trump. and jeanne zaino talking about all of that and more as we look at battleground states. we have calls lined up for you. we will start with lee. in grant george new york. , you're on. go ahead. caller: hello. i was very concerned because in the mail i received this flyer for center of voter information.
i am in the district with delgado. i opened it up and i thought it was going to give you information on propositions. what it is is saying things like the republican john faso wants to give guns to the mentally ill and convicted felons, and they want to do away with so many things. it is saying yes, john faso , wants to do that. delgado does not. it is fake news. second, i am on my radio in the car subsequently, and on one of the news stations, it says up new yorkussing city residents to vote in the 19th district election. they have preregistered 30 days in advance, and this whole thing is phony, and is it is upsetting because it is too late to discern whether things are fake
information or not. and i am really upset. pedro: thank you for your call. professor, go ahead. jeanne: i think lee reflects, that is one of the races you talked about, certainly the most watched race in new york state between delgado and the incumbent republican faso, one of the most watched across the country in fact. and these voters and these residents are being inundated by information, and as lee suggested, there is concern that some of that information can be false. and as a political scientist, it is, research shows negative advertisements give people negative information, but they do also dampen the spirit of many voters. it is a double-edged sword and one thing we have seen in the ads we have seen here in new york and across the country is one thing i have noticed.
-- noticed there is a lot more , insistence among the people putting these advertisements together to call their opponents liars and things like that we didn't often hear in the past. it is a particularly vitriolic campaign, and campaigns across the state, but it reflects what is going on nationally as well. pedro: this is from massachusetts. go ahead. caller: i just want to talk about what she is talking about in new york. i am liberal. i voted for hillary. but i want to let her know why democrat are not getting out to vote. go-ahead, keep going. why democrats are not going out to vote is the democratic party are left liberal alone. you don't do anything particularly with immigration. we have a lot of people sitting,
you know, [indiscernible] in new york who cannot work or having problem meeting their family. don't have no way around. you live up to what you present. the people. you do not do anything for us. why are we going to leave our jobs, lose money and go vote for us when you are not there for us? you are only for one party. you don't talk about anymore who we are. represent us. you know, when i talk about, i talk about example. pedro: ok. gotcha. gotcha. when it comes to those democrats in new york, per se what is the , breakdown for someone who identifies themselves a moderate democrat versus a progressive democrat? jeanne: this is something i find identifies our state today and increasingly the country when you mentioned the democratic
already. we mentioned our incumbent governor who is running for his third term, andrew cuomo, usually defined as a moderate democrat who faced the primary challenge from the progressive cynthia nixon for this last primary. four years earlier it was a progressive, and we have seen that split not just at the gubernatorial level but all the democratic party in new york state and i think increasingly in the country. we saw in 2016 between people like hillary clinton and bernie sanders, where there is this divide in the democratic party. establish moderates" and the more energized and left wing the -- wing of the base of the party. the party is animated and energized, which makes it more difficult for people like andrew cuomo who are more moderate. and we see this split in new york, in front and center in this election, and i think again we see it around the country. i still think, as you look in
the urban settings, you see the more progressives. we saw that in the victory over joe crowley in the primary. but as you move into more rural areas, you find more moderate center democrats, more representative through andrew cuomo. this is something we're going to see increasingly in the democratic party from 2018 into 2020 as the party tries -- raymond is in burlington
flats, new york. go ahead. and rncwhat does dnc stand for? dnc could be democratic national committee are democratic national convention, and the same thing for republicans. rnc could be the republican national committee or the republican national convention, as we get into 2020. host: you talked about republican strongholds in new york state. how does new york city play into that? it's mostly a stronghold for republicans. the 27th district upstate is a republican stronghold donald trump won handily. you can see some republican strongholds on long island, but new york city remains a bastion of liberal, democratic power, except for the 11th district, the district primarily on staten island, where we are seeing an interesting race between
incumbent dan donovan, who is being challenged by max rose, the democrat. it looks like the republicans , but ittain that seat may because. staten island is the only bastion in new york city of conservatism. we forget, because we have had republican mayors and republican governors, but many of those, if you look at somebody like mayor bloomberg, the last elected nowblican mayor, who has just most recently declared himself a democrat after being independent for some time. trajectorysee the that new york city at least is going on. but there is a split. some people call this a tale of two states, state that is more conservative upstate, pro-second amendment, versus downstate, where it is a much more liberal haven, particularly under mayor
deblasio. host: if you are in new york , for all02) 748-8000 .thers, call (202) 748-8001 this is jackie. go ahead. years old, i've been in politics all those years, and i have never seen so much hatefulness and lack of respect for people in general, as a right of being a christian and reasonable human. i'vee been a republican, been an independent and i've been a democrat. sorry about that, i apologize. go ahead.zaino, think this i unfortunate, horrific week, between the bombings and the shootings, you see many people
talk about civility. midterm,ok toward the many people in new york state and beyond, the caller was calling from florida where it is always interesting politics, but certainly this year, many people who we thought, perhaps the kavanaugh hearings would play into the midterm, maybe now the caravan the president has been talking about, but in the past week much talk has turned to civility in politics, and the vitriol we are seeing on the campaign trail. case, that is the going to help the democrats if you are talking about it politically. because if you look at some seen, you cane see, particularly amongst women, and women will be a decisive factor across this state and across the nation, they are turned off by the tone of the campaign, but certainly by the tom of the president. and that's a big problem for republicans who on the one hand, need to get the vote out, so
they need the president's based to come out, and on the other hand, if they are too closely tied to the president, they can turn off women, moderates and independents they need to win some of these tight races. situationreal tight for republicans as we turn to civility in politics. that the main issue, or are other issues driving and motivating voters, like health care and immigration and those things? jeanne: we are seeing in the polls that the main thing that motivates voters is the economy and jobs. but for democrats across the nation, it is all about health care. that is a driving factor, and we have seen that particularly in the democratic party in new york state, in the 19th in particular. and as you look to the republicans, you see issues like taxes, regulations, but also immigration than security, which
are very important to republicans. but there's a real split between republicans and democrats in terms of what is important. and as we track campaign advertisements in new york and across the country, you can see very clearly that split, with many more democrats consistently talking about health care, particularly pre-existing versus republicans talking about taxes, regulations, and increasingly immigration as it ties to security. those seem to be the animating factors on both sides. host: we will play you a sampling of the ads. this is the race from new york 19. iran nuclear deal, dangerous, but my opponent calls it an important diplomatic achievement. the deal lifted sanctions and allowed iran to continue developing uranium. even john kerry admitted money
would flow to terrorist groups. that's not an achievement. that's dangerous. , and i approve this message, because a deal that is good for iran is bad for america, and it is dangerous if you don't know the difference. toi'm running for congress serve you, no one else. i am determined to fight for affordable, accessible health care, not take it away. i will work to lower your tax burden. we might not agree on every issue, but i can promise you this. i will always be straight with you. i will always be accountable. delgado, and i approve this message because i'm asking for your vote on november 6. zane oh, oneor side the iran nuclear deal being a topic of discussion, the other side, antonio delgado looking straight at the camera. give us your perspective. it is very clearly
there, the divide we talking about. with republicans, john them, notg just the iran deal but tying it to security, and the insecurity antonioe facing, versus delgado talking about the issue that animates democrats, health care and the need to address the always-challenging problem of health care, particularly pre-existing conditions. it is a split we have seen over and over in this election. that is why we see the president out there on the trail, trying to focus on immigration, insecurity at the border, and democrats focusing on health care and instability in our politics, led, as they say by this president. morning.ood what i want to talk about,
pedro, we talked about the wave that is coming, the blue wave, which is for real. i want to give you an example of a blue wave. if you have a list of trees on one side of the street. those trees drop all the leaves on that side. and all of a sudden the wind came and blew all the leaves on the other side of the street. that is a wave. a wave does not spare senators, congress legislators, it just swept. thehe generic poll we see, democrats should sweep america, now i will say unless, when the
president had that secret meeting with putin, he probably told him the republicans are in trouble for november midterm do the sameease thing you did for me in 2016. host: thanks. as far as the analogy of the wave, what do you think? jeanne: what i am seeing is slightly different. what i'm expecting, and this is as the democrats are going to pick up the house. i don't know if it is going to be in record numbers, but it is not far-fetched to imagine they get in the upper 20's, lower, mid-30's, to get over the 23 day need to get the house. youou look in the senate see a very different picture, where it looks like republicans will maintain their majority and andpick up a seat or two,
mitch mcconnell may come out with 53, 54 seats, maybe 53. a blue wave, about we can talk about in the context of the house of representatives, and new york is certainly an example of leading the charge, as we have 18 house seat now for the democrats and are likely to get a few more into next week, but if you look at the senate, it's a very, very different picture across this country. we need to be cognizant of that and in my mind, it echoes what we saw in 2016 at the with hillarylevel, clinton winning the majority of the vote but donald trump taking the electoral college. that is reminiscent of what i think we are going to see in 2018. we need to because it's about talking about a blue wave. i think democrats likely take the house, but it probably stops there for now. comes to specific races, especially the close ones in the 19th and 20th districts,
are you thinking the democrats in those races will win? jeanne: very tough to call. the 19th is almost a tossup and deserves a lot of credit for running a strong campaign, as does his challenger antonio delgado. very tough to call that. i would call it a tossup. i think the polls give dell got up a slight edge, although faso has a lot going for him including his incumbent status. in the 22nd, we may see a democratic win, but tough to call in both of those cases. but the fact that democrats are making a go of it in these districts, 11, 19, 22, 24, 27, of 27, a verye republican district, i think it speaks to the fact that at least in new york state, we are poised to be a state that is going to be a bulwark against the
republican administration in washington, in the same vein california has become. we are seeing all the signs for that across new york, but i'm not sure that's going to match what happens across the country. as the governor laid out his perspective if he gets a third term? is there a plan he has in place? jeanne: he has laid out a plan. he has talked about that very holding the line against a republican administration in washington. as we saw the kavanaugh hearings go forward and kavanaugh was confirmed, we heard the governor talking about and shoring in new york state always have the right to choose, something very high on his agenda. we see the governor talking an awful lot about the fact that he is now likely going to be working for the first time with a democratic senate, something he hasn't had, and the things they would like to do, including campaign-finance reform, ethics
reform that he has been dogged ministration, of and this is a governor that has led the charge in terms of a free college education, but many say he has not gone far enough on that. so he has a number of things on his agenda for the third term. the big question is, will he indeed serve out a third term if elected, and it looks like he is going to be elected, or will he put himself in the running for president in 2020? he has said he will not run for president in 2020, although there are some who question whether he changes his mind. at the big question as we going to the election next week, that all signs that the governor wins against his challenger, the same for kristen gillibrand, who is running for the senate and facing minimal challenge from her republican opponent. host: in it new york, this is atuck.nd matt
would like to know if the professor has any information on the first congressional district on long island. the incumbent is pro-trump and the challenger is pro-single payer. zeldin'shis is lee district, the incumbent. again, uc health care as a big issue there. tohink lee zeldin is likely maintain the sea, but it has been a seat that has been watched. democrats thought early on it was one they may be able to pick up. i don't think there is that much confidence as we get this close now, and it's all about turnout, but i think it's a race democrats initially thought they might be able to turn over. look at the newsday newspaper, when it talks about the lee zeldin race, the headline says, the race tests donald trump's popularity.
and that raise it is true, and i think that is true in many sectors of the united states, with democrats making the race about donald trump or did they think it is going to be a winning message. they have to be a little careful about that because it also increases or can increase republican turnout among trump supporters. democrats, they feel if they make it about donald trump, they will get out those moderates who will vote against republicans, even somebody who is popular. and we have seen that in some of the specials here. haulingother floridian from tampa. this is sam. good morning. my question is, what is her observation for the 27th district, buffalo, new york, on the conservative as well as democratic platforms? and a small commentary. suffering since
bethlehem steel pulled out in the 1970's. people can't afford health care, can't afford jobs. i would like her take on that and i will take my question off there. the 27th is one of the interesting races, a very conservative district, very republican district. it is the district where chris collins is running, and chris collins, as many of your viewers may now, was indicted in about august, i believe, for insider trading. of time, heriod said he would pull out of the race and republicans would find something else who would run. he then decided, as we got into september, that no, in fact he was going to run, so chris collins remains on the ballot, and he is running against a guy mcmurray, who
democrats really wouldn't have had much hope they could pick up the seat until the chris collins indictment. it's probably a still a long shot mcmurray could pick it up, but chris collins remains on the ballot. there haven't been any debates as far as i understand in that district, and it it is still a district that pollsters are suggesting that collins, whether under indictment or not, can and will hold the district, and is probablyo face a trial january next year, which raises questions if he is elected and is sworn in again next year, within the house may do about that. the district,ing are you surprised collins has that strong a hold? surprised.m not this is a district he won by i think 30 points last time. it is one donald trump one by double digits. the republicans had a real challenge when collins was thought not to be in the race,
because they were concerned about who they could put up there. there were looking for somebody who could self fund, that he got back into the race, but no, to answer your question, i am not surprised that he is where he is worried although it does speak to the fact that these of the types of choices voters are being presented with, somebody under indictment for illegal acts, and again, he is under indictment, he has not been found guilty, versus a democrat who does not have a lot of support in the district, or didn't until this turnaround of events. as you look across new york ofte, one thing to make note is that, i believe across the country there are 39 races that are unchallenged. new york state has six of those, six democrats running without a republican challenger. countryof the 39 in the . that's a large majority and it
speaks to the fact that we have such a divide here in district like the 27th, so overwhelmingly republican, versus other districts where you have six democrats running without a republican challenger. that is not good for democracy. it's not good for voters, and it doesn't give any of us a choice. so that is sort of the story of new york state as we look at a , longd state, upstate island, downstate, between republicans and democrats, red and blue, liberal and conservative. host: how does voter suppression play out in new york? we have had enormous issues with challenges in terms of voter suppression. we are going to look for tuesday and hope we don't find it at the polling sites. it -- we do not have a good record when it comes to ensuring the franchise of all voters on election day.
that is a real concern. when polling sites open, are they well staffed? are people being denied their right to vote? these are all things we have experienced in new york. worry, if there is increased turnout on tuesday, that could as we come again into what could be a busy primary season on tuesday. host: is that because of the infrastructure involved as far as people that manage elections on the statewide level? are there local issues? guest: there are issues at both. our political parties are in charge of ensuring we have access, and that remains a problem. i think the biggest challenges for new york state when it comes to voting are the fact that we have not kept up with the rest of the country in terms of
increasing turnout and making voting accessible to everybody. these are things like same-day voter registration, early notng, allowing people to have to register so far in advance. all these things tend to dampen turnout in a state like new york. there is very little reason we don't have that here. just to give you one example, we are the only state in the nation that has a split primary. we have a primary for national races in june and state and local races in september. .hat is more costly there is no reason we would not unite those primaries and have one primary where we can go and vote for the candidates we choose. that is a change that has to happen. it is a long time coming. i don't know if we are going to see it.
there are some people that feel with a democratic senate we may see changes like that. our state has not had a good record on voter turnout. security, about voter the machines, how votes are collected and tabulated? guest: there is a good deal of concern. we have seen heightened concern .ost 2000 and post 2016 the research is very clear on the fact that the greatest problems with voting come from human error and are not necessarily hacking or nefarious attempts to change the vote. simple or not so simple human error at the polls. investing in things like poll worker training, good technology , a paper ballot as a backup.
new york is not alone in being slow to invest in that. this is something we do once or twice a year. to ourrtant as this is democracy, many people feel that they would like their money to go elsewhere. there is a huge concern in the minimal investment we make in all of those factors, which could go a long way in helping to assure that our votes are collected and counted accurately. it is not something that is incredibly exciting to talk about, but the biggest problem is human error. that is errors brought on by machines that are not accurately fixed and maintained. they are brought on by all kinds of human error from the top to the bottom of the process, more so a concern than any hacking or anything like that that we talk a lot about in the media. host: one last call from nick in georgia. caller: how are you doing?
professor, i was wondering if you could address the difference in the democratic socialist platform and the government platforms of venezuela and russia as socialist nations and how that affects the u.s. government, and i have another question, why the president cannot send the u.s. coast guard to the border to enforce border security because they are actually a law enforcement arm, not a military arm. thank you. host: professor, you can address the first part. guest: in terms of the democratic socialist platform, i don't think we have a fully blown or fully developed democratic socialist platform in this country yet. i would underscore yet because in the past we have had a movement towards that.
we are seeing that not just this election cycle but in the last few election cycles. i think it is still developing. when we are talking about a democratic socialist platform, it is difficult to pinpoint a particular leader, a particular number of issues. you can point to things developing like universal health care or health care for all, medical care for all. education for all, college education in particular. free college education. those are the kinds of issues we are hearing a lot about. there are real questions in terms of whether there is support for those and whether we can pay for those in this country and if so how and what you're going to give up to pay for them. be of those things have to sorted out. it is still a developing platform. i missed the last part of something about the border issue. host: the color was asking about
ler wassident -- cal asking about the president's authority to send the coast guard to the border. you can answer that if you want, but i was good ask you about security on election night. what -- guest: what i am watching for on election night is where do suburban women go on election night. i will be watching that very closely. also going to be watching to see .igns of a blue wave we should see that early. some of the house districts in virginia, a few of the districts in new york. we will be watching that closely. we want to be looking at some of the exit polls to see if these divides between republicans and democrats, rural and urban holds up. if it does, it is a stark reminder of what we will be facing in governance over the
next two years and for 2020 and beyond, which is a very divided country. not just divided by party, divided by geography and divided by the area in which you live as well as issues like gender and race. as we talk about the divisive tone we see a lot of that reflected in some of this data we will see on tuesday night. zainoprofessor jeanne teaches at iona college. pr
>> coming up wednesday morning, stress in america. and a university of redlands professor talks about the political dynamics of california. watch washington journal live at 7:00 eastern wednesday morning. join the discussion. here is a look at our live coverage wednesday. speaks to john bolton the alexander hamilton society about his role as white house ational security adviser. 8:00 our campaign 2018 coverage continues with a house debate from the new jersey third congressional district between republican representative tom mcarthur and democrat andy kim. on c-span two, the equal opportunity employment commission holds a public hearing on sexual harassment policies, followed by discussion on threats to democratic institutions with james clapper and michael hayden among the speakers. later president trump campaigns
in florida on behalf of republican candidates ahead of next week's elections. and on c-span3, the national council on u.s.-arab relations holds their annual conference in washington, starting at 8:45 eastern. the c-span bus is traveling across the country on our 50 capitals tour. providence,top in rhode island, we asked which party should control congress, and why. >> i'm a democrat but i would basically like to see everybody get along and everybody work together instead of everybody bickering back and forth. we need to work together and put a lot of respect back into our country. we lost a lot of that. learn how to respect each other again. >> i would like the democrats to host the party because i am personally a democrat, i'm a
registered voter who will vote most likely for all democrats, but it hasn't been able to be that way in congress for a long time, whereas we have had both, where one outweighed the other one, but i would like to see the democrats win. ♪ states, partm the of c-span's 50 capitals tour. day a weekction away, former vice president joe biden stopped in iowa this evening for a get out the vote rally. the event was in support of u.s. house candidate abby finkenauer, and fred hubbell, who is running for governor. ♪ own take care of our