tv Newsmakers John Rogers NRCC Dan SenaDCCC CSPAN November 2, 2018 9:58pm-10:49pm EDT
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discussion. welcome to newsmakers. the midterms are finally upon us. welcome johnd to wright jurors -- john rogers. he has been with the organization since 2011. his job, working with the chairman of ohio, getting republicans returns to the house of representatives. thank you for being with us. he writes about politics for ask yields. us.hank you for joining ask you a simple question. what group of voters has the biggest potential to impact the house? your group been doing
to convince them to vote for republicans? >> i have to give two groups -- where people swing would be independence. -- independents. that is what we have been focused on. messagingut what works for them and what is most effective. the other is republicans. same the midterm, not the turnout as a presidential would. we have been aggressive turning out the vote. we launched a nationwide radio spot that was almost $700,000. talking to republicans, election isem the coming. >> today, new economic numbers
are positive. but the president is talking about immigration, the caravan, birthright citizenship. talk about that messaging. is that moving the needle and or is that favor, subset of married suburban voters, that going to be a negative message? i think each of them have their own thing. messaging ison motivational. economics moves into that swing voter category. when we asked the polling question, what is the number one issue that is going to affect your vote for congress, for the first time ever -- we will look act. you think through all the election cycles we have been through.
you can probably name what that was about. obamacare each of them were about something. when we asked the question, what is the number one issue? it is probably dysfunction should the democrats take the house. there are a bunch of things that are tied. something else is in the lead career that has been going on. i think it is what has caused this to be a volatile election cycle.
economic numbers are going to be good for us. >> you mentioned married, educated college women. the lack ofed in diversity among republican candidates. especially compared to the democratic side. can you talk to me about republicans? recruiting efforts the cycle, to get women, and what it says about the party when there is a lack of women running and who are nominees? >> a number of things. we have the most republican women running for congress we have ever had. coming offng, we are majority thet republicans had since the 1920's. there are not a lot of competitive seats for us to recruit in. since there are fewer seats, there are fewer options for us
to recruit other folks. we have great female candidates, diverse candidates. the 39th congressional therict, she is going to be first asian -- korean republican elected to congress. florida, authern cuban-american. amazing candidate. delegationber of the and will be a rising star. >> we have heard a lot about the post kavanaugh bump for republicans. -- what is one race that has been help? >> either side would agree there was a balance that help all of
the races. there is onethe that stood out. that had to do with the fact the republicans chose to run. from what we have seen, the bvanaugh balance -- liftedounce -- bounce listed all ships. back to add war. >> and emerging conventional wisdom is republican candidates are going to get decimated in the suburbs. they are going to have a better shot at so-called trumpier
districts. theare still fighting in suburban districts. colorado, my call -- mike coffman. what do you see in those basicallythat everyone else's not seen in terms of your ability to window seat -- win those seats? >> the most expensive seats on the map. used to buying media, as the election goes on, it is supply and demand. the rates increase. what cost half $1 million in may $1.2 million per week. it is seats we haven't fighting in. in.e have been fighting you take a barbara comstock,
tireless fighter. had every that, we intention to win each of those races. to aternally referred bunch of races as the hot gates. home,yone sitting at let's get these expensive races and play, that we think we can compete and win in. the democrats are probably going to outspend us. try to win these races. our committee spent 12.2 million dollars. outside groups spent north of $28 million. million, four races. if you take another $16 million
-- we said, forget it, we are not going to compete -- we would be outspent 2-1. the next tier are incredibly inexpensive. that money could have taken democrats a long way. it was critical we fought right to the end in these races, as long as we could, tried to win. get the battle into these races. let's try and win. >> one of the things that has been different about the cycle we have noticed, the democratic so muches are raising money for their campaigns. the groups are a factor, but a factor. less of how has that change the way you play, as a party
committee, dealing with candidates who can spend and spend? on, factored into when we were engaging, we did not -- the early signs were we were going to get outspent, the dems were going to outspend the republicans, we decided it was not the best course of action. as late as we possibly could. so we could mitigate that cash advantage. our members raised more than they ever have. the democratic challengers have raised way more than anyone has. you need to have enough money. at some point, people get saturated. you need to have enough money to compete.
we are protecting the lead. been goods have members, representing their community well. if you start one of these with an eight point lead, how do you get that on the ground? a to victory or six point victory? >> we are at the halfway point. raisingion to democrats a lot of money, what is one thing democrats have done well? it has not been managing expectations. >> you do not agree with nancy pelosi? our i.t. guying to who said no one has pointed out thinkdon'tat
-- the money thing is what is the focus. something the republican party needs to focus moving forward. how do we move forward? something i think the republican party needs to focus on. president,es for a it is 33 house seats. your job, i would imagine, is difficult. i am not in the prediction game. if republicans do not maintain control of the house, is there a number floating around? with,uld feel comfortable limiting your losses to? to be the only people who have figured out we are going to keep the house and that is what we are focused on.
getting the last-minute persuasion out the door. we are one of the largest, most sophisticated gop operations. uy.sive radio b scientific testing how to get people out and it is going to be successful and many people will be surprised if it collects what is new? >> -- >> surprised? the newest emerging thing is texting. you watch her cell phones on monday and tuesday, both sides will be hitting folks very hard. it got developed throughout the course of the special election. texting, frankly, i get out the radio vote is something we
have not done before. it is a medium we have relatively to ourselves. not a lot of folks are buying radio ads. there are a lot of conservative leadership that we need to turn out. even though it is an older medium, it is a newer strategy for turning voters out. >> in those messages, what is the closing argument? mike touched on those competing messages voters are here hearing. what is your ideal closing message? >> this resistance model mentality. -- mob mentality. the thought of nancy pelosi taking the reins back.
our base is motivated by immigration as well. focus. part of the what democrats would bring. shey pelosi today said wants to focus on i think it is and hearing after hearing and investigation after investigation. that will be motivational and it should be. >> let me continue. november 7, next wednesday, you have stunned the world and kept the majority. could you have done that without nancy pelosi being a factor? a figure you have been able to run against? >> i believe we could. you look at the people, democrats that have distanced themselves from losey. -- pelosi. moved further left. probablyelosi, you
replace her with someone even further left than her. what i believe the election is about is voters seeing what is going on in the democratic party. medicare forying, all, what that would do, how much that would cost. the leftce, which inexplicably moved toward. impeachment. these are what these people one. their first orders of business. impeach supreme court justices. talk about tax reform. -- tax forms. the voters are seeing this and saying, maybe i want a check and
balance but this is not what i want. >> you have a decade of messaging against nancy pelosi to build on in the cycle. if she wasn't there, you would have gone with bernie sanders or elizabeth warren? andancy pelosi is effective richie is the most unpopular elected official in this country. effective. she is the most unpopular elected official in this country. she would take this country back. people in focus groups, they have this visceral reaction when you bring a polo see. -- pelosi. they have this reaction. sending a set of vitamins to make sure she stays healthy.
i'm confident without that, we would have figured out a different path. what if she didn't run again? she did. >> three minutes left. keep the house, what is one race you would be crushed if you lost? >> that is a tough question. i know whatte sure the answer to that is. aboutn you are passionate personally or you find fascinating. >> there are too many of them. i think why everyone has such a their, we are going to -- it is going to be seeing 10-40, they are the same things we are.
there are a a lot of races in the four point range. you have a good handle where these are. feel --have one that i i have a good handle where the races are. of things it a lot am and to spitting going to be surprises, we have had some inklings are the is not one that steps out. i love all of our members and candidates. wanted to press you on a couple controversies that have emerged. minnesota's first tim wallace, source.rge this is after he was targeted with a mail bomb. what was the thinking? thing was a soros
sad thing from the other side where they desperately tried to tie something to something that wasn't. it had nothing to do with religion. he has given a bunch of money. he is liberal. thatould have replaced with anybody that was liberal and had given a bunch of money. the dems try to take that and make something of it that it was not. that is not with the ad was about. it has nothing to do with anything going on in that election. ones trying to incite people. things that have nothing to do with what they are saying into something they are not. it is unfortunate that is what they are doing to politics. >> last question, you love all
of these races like your children. what are some races you think are going to surprise people tuesday night, wednesday morning? >> i think there will be two surprises. one, yet again republicans are going to outperform what literally all the experts are saying out there. there will be another investigation why was the polling surprising? another, how surprising it takes to figure out how long it won. a lot of these places count ballots for seven days. we may not know who has control of the majority election night. >> thank you for being our guest. >> thank you for having me. newsmakers election weekend continues. campaignthe director of the democratic campaign.
we continue our questions. you are up first. >> thank you for being here. we will start with a big question. what does it mean for president trump, if you party loses the house? and what does it mean if he wins? >> that is a great question. i think we are going to win the house in the coming week. candidates, ae crop of new people coming to theington, that will impact future generation of all politics in the u.s. we are excited about them. we have spent an enormous account of time -- amount of time having the biggest auto ground the democrats have had. i believe there is a new crop of leaders coming to dc. --we are not honest, successful, the answer is not
that different. a new crop who are outside of the political realm. i don't think there is a big change in terms of what the president trump will have to deal with, a series of nude faces and candidates. >> if you win, you will have more rational oversight against the president? >she seemingly becoming more worried. what with this new crop of leaders do from your perspective? checks and balances against the president or shake things up in washington? >> putting the president himself aside, you would see campaign finance reform. we have several candidates who are going to win next week who took a no corporate pledge. they have a different view of money and politics. campaigns are
focused on the grassroots. the health care fight, in particular, is a fight this new candidate crop will continue to push. >> what group of voters do identify as having the biggest potential to make a difference? doing?cc >> we have to understand the magnitude, we have invested in 80 races across the country. believe there are 80-100 across the country. in addition to building the biggest battlefield, we have invested $30 million in engagement. get out the vote efforts that started five days after president trump was elected. five days after he became onsident, we had organizers
the ground in the most will numeral districts to work with the emerging grassroots, millennials, begin to organize newfocus alongside the energy on the ground. that program is focused on african-americans, hispanics, women and millennials. together groups combined for a terrific coalition. put an emphasis on .rying to reach latino voters can you talk about what you are seeing in terms of early vote? engagement? whatever metrics you have at your disposal. >> we had organizers on the ground for 20 months before today. we are excited about that early investment.
ist early engagement important. what we're seeing across the board is the hispanic share of the electorate -- everybody has a theory of the case of what the early voting tells you. right now we are seeing something very encouraging. california and the rocky mountains southwest, the hispanic share of the vote is exceeded 2014 and knocking on the door for 2016. women,a we can get hispanics to the eoint where their vote shar is comparable to 2016 is important. >> do you expect it could be as big or a percentage? >> i think a percentage is what
we are seeing. everu released the first spanish-language tv ad. will criticize and for notpast cycles paying enough attention to voters. can you talk to us about two things regarding that ad? the timing, and it does not mention trump at all. a softer tone from what we are seeing from the right? is it the best response to the immigration rhetoric? proud of the fact we were able to do this multistate channeled approach with the entire year of engagement. uy dovetails into an african-american radio by.
think it is important to understand, we did focus groups throughout the rocky mountains southwest. looking and talking to hispanic voters. not with a traditional sense of what is on a black and white oll, when they see donald trump, kids in cages, we may believe is motivational, we andd the negativity of d.c. the trump administration, that is not a driver to pursue patriot people need to feel good about their vote. which is why the europe engagement and the spend works alongside the campaign to ensure they are reaching out to communities of color. time, having ame positive reason to participate. >> we know republicans are
continuing a trend of using voters.losi to turn out to -- theyportant shot themselves in the foot with health care. it became clear to voters the tax cut put us deeper into debt and was a threat to medicare and social security. you combine the lack of a playbook with them. it is not really about any particular person they are supporting. you have to look at the totality of their negative attacks. they are throwing everything at this group of candidates. candidates, cannot be fit into an ideological box.
the republicans are running a playbook that they are struggling with to define our let's talk about what the president is talking about the past few days, immigration, caravans, birthright citizenship, liberal mobs. he seems focused on getting the republican base out. are you concerned this has the potential to turn the election into a 2016-type situation, where you get a group of voters on the right changing the outcome? there are two key points to make. first and foremost, they have nothing else to talk about greed the country does not support their tax package and does not
trust them on health care. once you dig into the existing conditions and the age tax, the republicans take off as fast as they possibly can from debate. that's what you saw them not want to talk to their constituents early in 2017. but the second point is, every time donald trump does something, there is an opposite end equal reaction within the electorate. we have a battlefield that runs through florida, new york, kentucky, ohio, california, tucson, when you have a battlefield that is as large as the battlefield is, to get the majority and the numbers we need to get to, there are multiple paths. but it was important to establish a strategic arc of the cycle, that regardless of what donald trump did, i call it shaking the snow globe, you collect the immigration fight, we had to have a place
where we got the majority regardless of what he did. so if he took races and west virginia and south carolina, there is an equal reaction in california that brings seat along, that brings california 21 along. so it was important to understand that as we look at the electorate as a massive battlefield, to combat his tactics. is this is favorable a landscape as democrats have seen since 2006? can't win a majority in this environment, what does it say about the party? we are going to win a majority. and when you have candidates funded by the grassroots, and we are looking at congressional races being run more like gubernatorial and senate races. what i mean by that is, we have candidates that have the ability to tell their own positive story, rebut an attack, and have
the negative carried by an outside group. we saw this play out in the pennsylvania 18 special lambion, where conior was able to ultimately win the race. you will see a similar playbook next tuesday. >> if the scenario you expect doesn't happen, will we see that grassroots energy, if that is the outcome? distrust of washington dc, it's important to understand we are living in a world where the some of the pieces -- where the sum of the pieces is greater than the hold. because we have a large battlefield and so many candidates come from the grassroots, i don't think that is going away. the new faces in washington are going to represent folks back
home. i think we are about to usher in a new crop of leaders, regardless of taking back the don't seeot, and i that going away anytime soon, this election or 2020. >> quick thoughts on a couple of races, west virginia three? ojeda is one of the best candidates in the country and fits the district incredibly well, he fits the state very, very well, and he is symbolic of the battlefield we have. he served this country for 20 years in the armed services and has a long, outstanding record of service for the country greed it is in a and fight. west virginia has a tendency to red, but they have elected democrats in the past. we built a battlefield
regardless of a wave, we built a battlefield that presented an opportunity to win a majority regardless of the wave. i'm not interested in defining a blue wave. we have a battlefield with 70 plus races that are viable. richard ojeda would compete for this seat whether there was a waiver was in, and he will be competitive the same way anthony brindisi in new york is competitive. i'm sure you've seen public polling showing been mcadams, a democrat, leading in utah, and incredibly important point. >> florida 26? one of the most democratic seats in the country that we don't currently hold. debbie is outstanding. public polling shows the race tied. cubela is going to be
looking for a new job. xne is slightlye up, really fits the district and can compete against a popular incumbent. the new york times has her leading slightly, the early vote is very, very good. that district is much more conservative, but i'm betting on sunday. >> is minnesota eight gone? dan: i don't think anything is gone when you have a viable candidates. we will have to wait and see. >> california 45? dan: i'm sure you've seen the public polling. the campaign polling is similar. i'm a big believer in california, i started my career there.
we pitched a perfect game during the primaries there. historically, democrats have been blocked out in the state of california because they're crazy primary rule, which hopefully they change, that i think quarter is -- i think porter is going to win, katie porter versus congresswoman mimi walters. >> a couple of stretch district where eyes -- districts where eyes have been opened, iowa four with steve young, and alaska's don young down a point, which i don't think anybody saw coming. eyes have been opened, iowadan:y carefully. public polling in iowa district four shows a competitive race. they are both races to watch come election day. i can't tie you what is going to
happen with either of them, but as you look at republican spending patterns over the last 10 days, part of the reason the large battlefield was critical to us is that in prior cycles, republican super pac money was able to keep democrats in 20, 25 seats. fighting in that small of a large battlefield wasbattlefielr democrats to break out given the gerrymandered districts. have seen them -- in north carolina, in michigan districts they never thought they would have to fight it, so those are indicative of places where the battlefield has grown so much, republicans have to spread themselves so thin to defend what will become the minority and the house. are districts where you think there is potential for surprises on wednesday morning? dan: start with the big picture state. new jersey is a place where you may see two seats to four seats picked up on the democratic side. lance,c arthur and
current members of the republican congress, in a fight for their lives facing good republican -- facing good democratic candidates. i think we are going to pick up a couple of extra seats. the state of north carolina, north carolina nine with an interesting seat, north carolina 13 with kathy manning. there is nothing else on the ballot in north carolina this cycle, so the congressional races are dominating, there is nothing else above us on the ticket emma and they are dominating the conversation. nancy to nancy -- soderbergh in florida as a potential surprise. a tough district but again, the type of candidate that has a infile to be able to win places like saint augustine and daytona beach. early in the night, those are places i would look to. later in the night i would look
to, a mexico district candidate in a light red district where we are incredibly excited about her. public polling has the race tied. those are some places across the board i would look to. >> final questions? >> pennsylvania, how many seats? dan: a minimum of four seats and we could pick up as many as seven. ticket, i'mve the thinking of florida, do you see any races that suggest it is helping democratic house candidates? we looked to florida. the governor's race in michigan is installed on their side. anytime you have an executive race stall on a ticket, it presents opportunities for the people under them.
and we are incredibly excited about the florida governor's race. >> you have basically said democrats are going to win on tuesday. there is a lot of democratic voters who are going to hear this and say, 2016, we all heard hillary clinton was going to win and that is not what happened. what gives you this level of confidence? , given the 2016 experience, for this level ofs -- confidence, given the 2016 experience, for you to say this? dan: there is a way to win the majority, and between the open seats and the sheer size of the battlefield, there are 15 to 20 seats that democrats will certainly pick up. seats thatok at any are tossup and leaning our way, and there is like another 20. i can't tell you how all those
seats will play out, but we are going to win some of them that a narrow ame majority, and on a good night we could win a plurality and expand into a larger lead. >> your closing argument to voters? if you want somebody in washington dc watching out for your best interest, the cares about your pre-existing conditions, that cares about that little card we care were -- card we carry around for health care, prescription drug costs, i would vote for your local democrat. >> your counterpart on the republican side, john rogers, said he thinks the election won't be over on election night, that it could take days for recounts. are you anticipating that? 100%.
john and i agree on that. >> and with that, thank you. back on thes selection weekend. we just heard an interesting tactical discussion by the heads of the campaign committees. the thermopolis theory and the snow globe theory. what is the difference in the way the parties approach the congressional map? >> democrats feel very confident about the landscape, that is has expanded. dccc estimates 70 seats in play. grassroots fundraising hasn't grassrootso -- fundraising has enabled them to be competitive where in past cycles they haven't in competitive. they have a path of the majority. on the flipside, the republicans
see a path to keeping their majority but it's much narrower and involves creating bulwarks key areas in holding onto seats in districts where one, sort ofmp play a chess game with democrats to make them spend national resources in suburban districts and hoping that keeps them out of more stretched districts in rural areas. right now things are still unsettled, not a guaranteed democratic victory, but you definitely understand why democrats feel more confident. you'd rather be democrats right now than republicans. difference in their battleground strategies is clear when we ask about closing arguments. john rogers talked about resistance and encouraging republican race voters to vote against democratic chaos or
democratic-controlled congress. said vote for somebody who cares about you and your health care and are living conditions. it's interesting to see those strategies, one party telling voters to vote against something, and the other encouraging them to vote at of hope and for something. >> dan at the beginning, you pressed him on what a democratic majority would mean for the president. i think about impeachment and how that is playing out with candidates, especially new recruits with democrats. he was and going to go there with his answer, but on the campaign trail, what is the discussion about the pursuit of kavanaugh or the president with a democratic majority? it's something the national democratic party doesn't want to because they
firmly believe it doesn't help the candidates tuesday. that there are definitely more progressive candidates, first-time candidates that are calling for the impeachment of donald trump. it is not at the level republicans make it out to be, but it does not erase the folks who are calling for impeachment of kavanaugh is not something i have heard much about. it seems like everyone is so focused on immigration and other things after his confirmation, but i expect there to be a handful of very vocal members who are new to congress in january, who are calling for the impeachment of donald trump. >> those numbers would be in more heavily-democratic districts. the candidates in the more competitive seats have been almost uniformly avoiding the impeachment discussion. they have basically taken the line from nancy pelosi on down, between the special counsel investigation, let's wait and see what our oversight reveals
and have that discussion, but now is not the time to talk about impeaching the president. >> a last question on messaging. made the point that negativity doesn't get people to the polls. is that the same few republicans have? turnoutith a base election. certainly not, and we hear that from the president on down. there are vulnerable house in florida and coffman in colorado, who aren't using the fear mongering rhetoric of the president and others, but the fear mongering strategy could not be farther apart. >> dan was describing a scenario where if the president talks about immigration, it might help in some districts but it creates it corresponding problem in other districts. that's one of the reason for democratic confidence. they think that there is no one thing republicans can do to help
them in more moderate, suburban seats and the rest of the battlefield, without basically scrambling the landscape. >> we had consensus from both that it might not be settled on election night. we could have a long week ahead. thank you for being here as we set the stage for voting on tuesday. >> tomorrow, president trump will be campaigning for inublican candidates florida, at a rally in pensacola. live coverage begins at 7:30 p.m. eastern. listen live on our free radio app. c-span, your primary source for campaign 2018. >> which party will control the house and senate? c-span's live election night coverage, starting tuesday at 8:00 p.m. eastern as the
results come in from house, senate and governor races from around the country. here the green concession speeches, and wednesday at 8:00 p.m. eastern, -- at 7:00 a.m. eastern, we get your reaction and take your phone calls live during washington journal. primaryyour premie source for campaign 2018. >> president trump was in indianapolis campaigning for republican candidates. is facing mike braun incumbent democratic senator joe donnelly. vice president mike pence leads off the rally. he is a former congressman and governor of indiana. ♪ now" playing]