tv Newsmakers John Rogers NRCC Dan SenaDCCC CSPAN November 4, 2018 6:01pm-6:51pm EST
susan: welcome to c-span's "newsmakers." the midterms are finally upon us. the last weekend before people go to the polls tuesday. we are pleased to welcome john rogers. he is the director of the national republican congressional committee, the nrcc. he has been with the organization since 2011. his job, working with the chairman, is getting republicans returned to the house of representatives. thank you for being with us. mike debonis is back from the "washington post." and alexi mccammond writes about politics for axios. mike, you are first. mike: thank you for joining us.
so close to the election. i just want to ask you a very simple question. what group of voters do you think has the biggest potential control of the house on tuesday, and what has your group and doing in the last week to reach those people and commits them to vote for republicans? john: sure. thanks her having me come i am really excited to be on the show. i have to give two groups -- one is where people swing would be independents. specifically married, college-educated women is where we are most focused. figuring out what messaging works for them and what is most effective. the other is republicans.
it is the midterm, not the same turnout as a presidential would. we have been aggressively turning out the vote. we launched a nationwide radio spot that was almost $700,000. talking to republicans, reminding them the election is coming. mike: today, new economic numbers are positive. but what the president is talking about is immigration, the caravan, birthright citizenship. talk about that messaging. is that you think this election is going to be decided on? is that moving the needle in republicans' favor, or is that subset of married suburban voters that you are talking about the could be decisive, is i going to be a negative message for them? john: i think you have a mix out there. i think each of them have their own sort of thing about them. i the immigration messaging is largely based motivational. i think economics moves more into that swing voter category. and what we have seen all cycle
long is this tremendous amount of volatility. when we asked the polling question, what is the number one issue that is going to affect your vote for congress? this cycle, for the first time, i think you might ever come out if we take a look back and think through all the election cycles we have been through, off the top of your head, you could probably name what that election was about. the war in iraq, obamacare, tick through each of those. each of those elections were about something. when we ask of the polling question about what is the number one issue this cycle, we have gotten this tie among five or six different things. the voters do not have one number one issue that is driving the election. if they do, it is probably the dysfunction that the democrats would cause if should they take the house. there are a bunch of things that are tied. there is a short period of time where something pops up at 16, and then wait a few hours, and it will change.
then you wait a couple of weeks, and something else is in the lead. that tug-of-war has been going on the whole cycle long. i think that is what is causing this to be a very volatile election cycle all the way to the end. i think economic numbers are going to be good for us. alexi: you mentioned married, college-educated women as a crucial voting bloc. i'm interested in the lack of diversity among republican candidates this cycle, especially when you look at the democratic side. not as many women, people of color, veterans. can you talk to me about republicans? recruiting efforts this cycle to get women camera and what you think it says about the party or the parties priorities when there is a lack of women running and who are nominees? john: a number of things. we have the most republican women running for congress that i believe we have ever had.
another thing -- we are coming off of the largest majority the republicans have had since the 1920's. with that, there are not a lot of competitive seats for us to recruit in. since there are fewer seats to recruit in, there are fewer options for us to recruit other folks. we have great female candidates, diverse candidates. young kim, in the 39th congressional district, she is going to be the first asian american -- first korean female republican elected to congress. maria elvira salazar, in southern florida. a cuban-american. an amazing candidate and will be an amazing member of the delegation and will be a rising star. alexi: we have heard a lot about the post-kavanaugh bump for republicans. whether it is in enthusiasm or donations. we have seen how the battleground has shifted after
that moment. what is one race think was genuinely helped by brett kavanaugh's nomination? john: i am not sure there was just one. i think either side would agree that there was a kavanaugh bounce that helped all races. i do not know if there is one, off the top of my head, that stands out. maybe rod blum? but i think it is because the democrats chose to run ads and then leave, and then i let him get back into that fight against .hat opportunity it may have been more that than the kavanaugh bounce. from what we have seen, the kavanaugh bounce lifted all ships. it seemed to bounce and then plateau, now we are back into fighting individual races on their own terms, back in the ad war.
mike: sort of the emerging conventional wisdom about this election is that republican candidates are just going to get decimated and the suburbs are going to have a better shot in so-called "trump-ier" districts. you are still fighting in the suburban battlegrounds. you are fighting in the d.c. area for barbara comstock. in colorado, from mike coffman. what do you see in those districts that basically everyone else is not seeing in terms of your ability to win those seats? john: they are also the most expensive seats on the map. so for folks that are not used to buying media, sitting at home, as the election goes on and more people -- it is a supply and demand thing. as the auction goes on, the rates increase. so what costs $500,000 back in may now costs $1.2 million per week. so a lot of those decisions have to be made early on.
we have been -- these are seats we happen fighting for for a long time. these are members who have their own brand. they have been through this before, represent themselves. you take barbara comstock, a tireless fighter who represents her community incredibly well. besides from that, we have every intention in the world to win each of those races. but there is another important strategic thing at play. internally, we refer to a small bunch of races as the hot gates. for any of the people sitting at home with a sense of history, it would be thermopylae. let's get these really expensive races that are in play cover that we think we can compete and win in, and let's get the democrats, who are probably going to outspend us, and try to win these races. if we look at that list of races we have internally, our committee spent $12.2 million.
the democrats outside groups spent much of $28 million in those four races. million for four races. that is a big deal. if you take another $16 million let's just say, game it out, forget it, we are not going to compete in those races, we would be outspent two to one and all of the other races we went to. and the next seats, the next tier of races, are incredibly inexpensive. so that $16 million could have taken democrats a long way. but it was critical that we went and fought right to the end of these races as long as he possibly could and just try to win them. get the battle into these races. let's go try and win these things with some really strong numbers. mike: one of the things that is very different about this cycle that we have all noticed is that the democratic candidates are raising so much hard money for their campaigns. the groups are obviously still a
factor, but it seems like less of a factor, given that advantage. how has that changed the way you guys have had to play, as a party committee, when you are dealing with candidates who can just spend and spend and spend? john: i think early on, you factor it into when we were engaging in war. the early signs and were going nationwide by the democrats, we decided it was probably not the best course of action to get involved. we decided, let's have the war really break out as late as we possibly can, so that way we can indicate the cash advantage. and our members have raised more than they ever have. it is just that the democratic challengers have raised way more than anybody ever has out there. so what we found is that you
just need to have enough money because at some point in time, tv gets saturated, the internet gets saturated. your mailbox gets full. you just need enough money to compete in these races and we are getting our members to the best spot we can. we are also protecting the lead. our members have been good members, representing communities well. if you start one of these races out with an eight point lead, even though you are getting outspent ramadi you get that plane on the ground with a victory, whether it be a two-point victory, or a six-point victory. that lead really helped us mitigate. susan: we are at the halfway point. 10 minutes to go. alexi: in addition to democrats raising record amounts of money, i am curious, what is one thing democrats have done well this cycle, that has surprised you? john: it certainly has not been managing expectations. mike: you mean you do not agree with nancy pelosi that democrats are going to win? [laughter] john: this morning, i was talking to our i.t. guy, george
griffin, who said that nobody has pointed out that she has said that every year for the last eight years. and she has been wrong every other year, so why should this year be any different? and i think there is -- the money thing is really what is the focus. i think it is something the republican party needs to focus on, moving forward. how do we get to that internet machine, like the democrats seem to have figured out, on the low dollar end, and is something i think the republican party needs to focus on going forward. alexi: in the average number of losses for a president in the midterm, the number is 33 house seats. your job, i would imagine, is incredibly stressful and difficult in a year like this. i am not in the prediction game. a big if -- if republicans do not maintain control of the house, is there a number floating around between you and your colleagues or in a cycle that you would all feel comfortable with limiting your losses to?
john: we seem to be the only people who have figured out we are going to keep the house. and that is what we are focused on. getting out the vote now. getting our last-minute persuasion out the door. getting all of the get out the vote operations -- we are one of the largest, most sophisticated gotv operations the committee has ever run. massive radio buy, massive digital spend, we have done a lot of control group testing, a lot of scientific testing on how to get people out. i think it is going to be successful and a lot of people will be surprised tuesday. susan: what is your new get out the vote thing, technology wise? john: the biggest emerging thing is texting. both sides are doing it. they are getting aggressive. so watch your cell phones monday and tuesday, because i think both sides will be hitting folks very hard on texting. that is something that is new. it has gotten developed throughout the course of the
special elections this cycle. frankly, our get out the vote radio ad is something that i do not recall the committee ever doing before. we focused a lot of effort on persuasion. it is a medium we have relatively to ourselves. because not a lot of folks are buying radio ads out there. and there is a lot of conservative listenership that we need to turn out this election. radio, even though it is an older medium, it is a relatively new or for turning voters out. speaking directly to them on the radio as well. alexi: in those gotv messages, what is the closing argument from the nrcc? mike touched on those competing messages and their range of messages that republican voters are hearing. what is your ideal closing message these last four days? john: part of it is this resistance mob mentality the other side has. the notion -- just the thought
of nancy pelosi taking the house back and getting the reins on congress and getting back to running this country. i think our base is credibly motivated by immigration as well. that is part of the focus. and what the democrats would bring. nancy pelosi today said she wants to focus on -- i think it is impeachment and hearing after hearing and investigation after investigation. i think that will be really motivational for our folks out there and should be. if you are a republican, don't forget to vote on tuesday. mike: let me continue on this line. let's say it is november 7, next wednesday. you guys have stunned the world and kept the majority. john: there you go. mike: could you have done that without nancy pelosi being a factor, a figure that you have been able to run against this cycle? john: i believe we could. you look at the people, the democrats that have distanced themselves from pelosi. i theorize it is because their
base has moved further left. they are socialists at this point in time. and without pelosi, you probably replace with someone who is even further left than pelosi. what i believe this election is about is voters seeing what is going on in the democratic party and seeing the dysfunction that they would bring to d.c. they just do not want that. people are saying -- even someone who might want a check and balance are looking out there and seeing medicare for all and everything that would do and how much that would cost in doubling everyone's income taxes. you see "abolish i.c.e.," which the left inexplicably moved toward. and then impeachment. this is what these people want. their first orders of business
, they went to impeach supreme court justices, have all these hearings and investigate everybody. they talk about tax reforms -- tax forms, etc. i think the voters out there are seeing all of this and saying , maybe i want a check and balance, but this is not what i want. this is in the check and balance. mike: it would have been hard -- you guys have essentially a decade of messaging against nancy pelosi to rely on, to build on in this cycle. if she wasn't there, you are saying you would have just gone with bernie sanders or elizabeth warren in these ads, that would have been equally as effective? john: i think nancy pelosi is effective. she is the most unpopular elected official in this country. she is incredibly effective in showing people how dysfunctional these folks would be and how far left and how she would just take this country back -- folks remember. when you talk to people in our focus groups, they have this visceral reaction when you bring up pelosi. their body language, they get in a more fighting posture. you just see it in people, that
they have this reaction. we talked about sending a set of vitamins over to her to make sure she is still healthy going into the election cycle. but i am confident, without that, we would have figured out a different path. and we considered, what if she didn't run again? she did. so that is not what we had to deal with. susan: three minutes left. alexi: if you guys keep the house, what is one race you would be crushed if you lost? john: that is a tough question. i am not quite sure i know what the answer to that is. alexi: one you are really passionate about personally or you find fascinating? john: there are too many of them to list on that.
this election -- and i think why everyone has such a wide range this cycle on -- all of the experts out there say it will be between 10 and 40 or 30 and 40, they are probably seeing the same things we are. there are a a lot of races in a four-point range right now. we have a pretty good handle on where these races are. because of that, i do not really have one that i will is -- i have a good handle on where each of the races are. so there are not a lot of things i am anticipating are going to be surprising out there. and even the surprises, we have had some inklings on and are watching. there is not really one that steps out of that pack. because i love all of our members and all of our candidates. i think they are doing a great job. mike: i wanted to press you on a couple controversies that have emerged in the last few weeks. one is last week, you guys were in minnesota's first district, the tim walz district, after
that featured george snores, after soares had been turned with a mail bomb. -- with an ad that featured soros hados, after been targeted with a mail bomb. you guys kept an ad up there. what was the thinking there? john: the whole soros thing was a sad thing from the other side, where they desperately tried to tie something to something that wasn't. that ad had literally nothing to do with religion. it talked about the fact that he has given a bunch of money -- he is liberal and gave a bunch of money to people. you could replace that with anybody who is liberal and has given a bunch of money. the dems, frankly, tried to take that and make something that it was not. the ad had nothing to do with that. they are the ones that are trying to incite people and interpret these things that have literally nothing to do with what they are saying into something they are not.
it is unfortunate that is what they are doing to politics. they are the ones going out there and trying to get people spun up on things that have nothing to do with the matter. mike: last question, you love all of these races like your children. what are some races you think are going to surprise people tuesday night, wednesday morning when they see the results? john: i think there will be two surprises. they may not be race specific. surprise number one, yet again republicans are going to perform what literally everyone in the country, all the experts, are saying out there. there will be another investigation on, why was the polling surprising? another one would be how surprising it takes to figure out how long it won. a lot of these places count ballots for seven days. we may not know who has control of the majority election night. susan: thank you for being here. john: thank you for having me. susan: "newsmakers'" election
weekend program continues. next up is dan sena, the executive director of the democratic congressional campaign committee, the dccc. thanks so much for being with us. we continue our questions. alexi, you are up first. alexi: thank you for being here. we will start with a big question. what does it mean, from your perspective, for president trump, if your party loses the house? what does it mean for him if you win the house? dan: that is a great question. i think we are actually going to win the house in the coming week. alexi: full stop? dan: full stop. i think we have candidates, a crop of new people coming to washington, that i think will impact the future generation of all politics in the united states. we are excited about them. we have spent an enormous amount of time and energy building the biggest strategic battleground the democrats have had in a decade. should we be successful, i
believe there is a new crop of leaders coming to d.c. should we not be successful, the answer is not all that different, because there is still in new crop of leaders coming to d.c. we have an amazing crop of candidates, who sort of sit outside of the political realm. so i do not think there is a big change in terms of what the president will have to deal with, in terms of dealing with new faces and candidates. alexi: obviously if you win, you will have more congressional oversight against the president. he is seemingly becoming more worried about that kind of saying, pretend i am on the ballot, if we lose the house, it is not my fault. what, with this new crop of leaders, getting to know them, from your perspective, to maintain a check and balance against the president or shake things up in washington? dan: putting the president himself aside, i think you would see campaign-finance reform.
we have several candidates, who i believe are going to win next week we took a "no corporate" pledge. i think they have a different view of how money in politics works. the vast majority of our campaigns at this point in time are heavily focused on the grassroots. that will be a big piece of it. i think the health care fight, in particular, is a fight this crop of new candidates will continue to push. mike: going into these final days, just what group of voters do you identify as having the biggest potential to make a difference and who has the majority and what is the dccc doing in this last week? dan: in addition to the largest battlefield that we've had in a decade, and it is important to understand the magnitude of that, we have invested in roughly 80 races across the country and we believe there are about 80 to 100 viable races in the country. so in addition to building the largest battlefield, we have also invested an additional $30 million in what we call urban
engagement. significant, robust fields in get out the vote efforts that started five days after donald trump was elected. i think it is important to understand how unprecedented that is for a national committee to do. five days after he became president, we had organizers on the ground in the 21 most vulnerable districts in the country to work with emerging grassroots, hispanics, african-americans, millennials, and really organize and focus alongside all of the new energy on the ground. that particular program is focused very heavily on african-americans, hispanics, women, and millennials. so i think all of those groups together combine for what is a terrific coalition. mike: you are the first latino executive director on the committee. you have put a big emphasis on trying to reach latino voters. can you talk about what you are seeing so far in terms of early vote or just engagement? whatever metrics you have at
your disposal at this late date some measure that? dan: one of the things i am most proud about -- remember, we had organizers on the ground for 20 months before today. we are incredibly excited about that early investment. coming from a hispanic family myself, that early engagement with the family and voters across the country is incredibly important. what we're seeing across the board in the united states, across the battlefield, is the hispanic share of the electric -- that share of the electorate everybody has a theory of the case of what the early voting tells you. you have to be a little careful what you read into it. right now, we are seeing something very encouraging. in places like california and the rocky mountains-southwest, is the hispanic share of the vote has already exceeded 2014 and is knocking on the door in terms of percentage of the vote in 2016. the idea is if we can get women, millennials, hispanics to the place where there vote share is 's historicto 2016
and paves the way for austin we would when the house. mike: when you say vote sharing, are you talking in absolute terms? of: i think as a percentage the vote is what we are seeing an early vote tallies right now. incredibly encouraging. alexi: you, or the dccc, just released the first ever multistate spanish-language tv ad. obviously, democrats will always be criticized -- and they have in past cycles -- for what critics say is not paying attention to enough minority voters. you just walked us through the program we all implemented the days after trump was elected, can you talk to us a bit about two things regarding that ad? one, the timing, and two, it doesn't mention trump at all. it takes a much softer tone from to what we are seeing from the right. your opinion, the best response to the immigration rhetoric? or just the rhetoric of latinos in general? dan: we are incredibly proud of the fact we were able to do this multistate, multi channel approach with the entire year of engagement.
obviously, the spanish buy is a piece of that. it also dovetails into a seven figure african-american radio buy. it is not just channeled into one specific audience or ones pacific voter. i think it is important to understand -- we did focus groups throughout the rocky mountains-southwest. looking and talking to hispanic voters. not with a traditional sense of what is on a black and white but really getting in front of the electorate and getting in front of these occasional voters and understanding, when they see donald trump, when they see kids in cages, when they see the sort of things that we in washington, d.c. believe is motivational, one of the things we found the negativity of d.c. and the trump administration, that is not a driver to participate. people need to feel good about their vote. they need to feel they are voting for something. which is why the year of engagement and the spend works alongside the campaign to ensure they are reaching out to communities of color. to ensure they are reaching out
to hispanic voters when at the same time, given them a positive reason to participate in the national election. we know the republicans are continuing the trend to use nancy pelosi. how much does that worry you this cycle and murray seeing effective? most >> i think it is important to look at their playbook in totality. the relation of themselves in the foot very early on with their health care positioning, then it became evident to most voters that their tax-cut really was a tax that actually put us deeper into debt, and ultimately was a threat to medicare and social security and not everybody was treated fairly. it combines to the lack of a playbook with them. it is not really about any particular person there are supporting in washington dc, you have to look at the totality of
their attacks. there are throwing everything at this group of candidates and the challenge they are having is that this group of candidates cannot be fit into an ideological box. they come with amazing records of service come at whether they are see at a operatives, small business owners who have served their countries, went to a terrific school, moved home and build businesses. so the republicans are running a that theyhat era -- are struggling with to define our candidates. >> will talk about the president , which he has written about immigration, caravans, birthright citizenship, the liberal mob, he seemed focused on getting the republican base out. that hasoncerned that the potential to turn the selection into a 2016-type situation, where you get a grip of voters on the right coming basically changing the outcome of the selections?
that is a great question. to keep points are important. first, he is doing that because they have nothing else to talk about. as a mentioned earlier, the country does not support of their tax package and they do not trust him on health care. as much ascans take a caps on the public debate, knowing to talk about the tax. the second piece of it that i think is important, that hits on what you're asking is that every time donald trump does something , there is an opposite and equal reaction within the electorate. it is important to understand that from you when you have a battlefield that runs through florida, upstate new york, kentucky, ohio, california, tucson, our ability to get to the majority and get to the there are multiple paths for us to vehicle to do it and it was important for us from day one to be what to establish
a strategic arc to the cycle regardless of what donald trump did. immigrationt the five, i call that shaking the snow globe. it was important to be in a place where we could fight to get to the majority regardless of what. he did so if you took races in west carolina or sout virginia, they would be an equal reaction to california that would bring democracy along, that would bring california alone. it was important for us to understand, a large battlefield is necessary to. mike: combat his basic tactics this is as favorable a landscape as democrats have seen since 2007. win aocrats cannot majority this year with this president and this environment, what is it they about the party ?nd its messaging dan: i think we are going to win a majority.
we have spent an enormous amount of time ensuring that -- we're looking at congressional races being run more like a gubernatorial races. what i mean is that we have candidates who have the ability to tell their own positive attack, and an we saw this playbook play out in the pennsylvania 18 special wastion, where conor lamb able to take all the firepower they had and push back with candidates side signing and win the race ultimately. i think you will see that playbook as he have seen that elections progress, come tuesday. mike: if the scenario you are expecting doesn't happen, we will see the same grassroots outcome?f that is the i think one of the things that is interesting is that the distrust in washington dc, we are living in a world where some of the pieces are greater than the whole and i think, should we not be successful, you will continue to see that.
because we have such a large battlefield and there are so many candidates that have come grassroots, at a thing that is going away. i think the new crop of candidates are going to represent folks back home. a think we are about to usher in a new crop of leaders, regardless of taking back the house or not. that going away anytime soon, whether it is this election or 2020. susan: eight minutes left. alexi: i wanted to get some thoughts for me on a couple of elections are watching? dan: he is one of the best candidates in the country, and he fits west virginia. akin to you that he fits the district and the state for a well. of the he is symbolic battlefield that we have. he served his country for 20 plus years in the armed services and has such a long, outstanding record of service for the country. it is a neck and neck fight.
west virginia has some democrats who have won in the past, and i think he is that type of democrat. alexi: so is he part of the blue wave that you have been talking about? will build a battlefield, regardless of a wave, that represented us and give us opportunity to win the majority regardless of the blue wave. alexi: how do you define the wave? dan: to be honest with you, we have a battlefield of 70 plus races that are viable and functioning. compete in this seat whether there was a blue wave or wasn't because he shares the values of his district and of west virginia. he would be competitive, the same way that brandon again as is a utah for, there democrat leading in utah, and incredibly important point to make. alexi: florida 26? dan: one of the most democratic
seats in the country, that we don't currently hold. debbie is outstanding, again, i'm sure you have seen the public polling. and fortunately think her opponent will be looking for a job on wednesday. alexi: ios threwa 3? dan: i met my wife in des moines, i met my wife there and i love iowa. cindy axne is way up. it is a good example when have andls who personally wise characterize, can fit a district and compete against a really popular candidate. the new york times has for leading slightly. that is a district where election day is usually conservative, so we'll have to see how it goes. ahead and go with it -- i don't think minnesota eight is gone, in this environment, it is not easy to say which one is gone. we'll have to wait and see. alexi: california 45? dan: i assure you have seen the
public polling, the campaign pulling is very similar to what you're seeing. i am a big believer in california, i started my career there. we pitched a perfect game during the primaries there. historically, democrats have actually gotten blocked out in the state of california because of their crazy primary role, which i hope they change, but i think we will win. walters,ter and minnie congresswoman walters. mike: a couple of stretches , that have possibilities. keying, we a stiff saw pull yesterday with him down one point, which i don't think anybody ever saw coming. what are you seeing in those districts? dan: and other public in iowa 4
shows a really competitive race. i think they are both races to watch going to election day, i cannot tell you what will happen on either one of them. but as you look at republican spending patterns, what are the reason the large battlefield was so critical to us was in prior republican super pac money was able to keep the democrats in the 20-25 seats. when you are fighting in that small a battlefield, it is a most impossible for democrats to breakout of the gerrymandered districts. we saw them -- in south carolina, red districts in michigan, where they never thought there would have to fight him. abouto races were talking are indicative of places where because a battlefield has grown so much, their publicans have to spread themselves been in order to try and defend what i ultimately think will become the minority in the house. mike: just a relatable question. where are some districts raising
there could be potential surprises wednesday morning? dan: i think new jersey in particular is a place where you may see anywhere from 2-4 seats picked up on the democratic side. macarthur and lands, current members of the congress, there are in a fight of their lives facing really good democratic candidates come as i am looking at new jersey as a place where i think we will pick up a couple of extra seats. i think the state of north carolina, in particular, north , with dan macready, north carolina 13 come up with kathy manning, there's nothing else on the ballot in turn i this circle -- in a north carolina this cycle. nothing above us on the ticket that is really dominating the conversation there. i look to nancy soderberg in a potential surprise. we have supported her from day one and she is a terrific candidate. tough district, but again, the type of candidate with a great
profile to be able to win in saint augustine and daytona beach. so early in the week, in the night, those are the places i would look to. i would also look at new mexico come up my home state, miss tourist, the 10th of democrat who has taken this fight outside the national frame -- xochitl torres. , she is running a really great race. those are the places i would look to. susan: you have one minute left. final questions. alexi: pennsylvania, where do you see as picking up? dan: i would say that we will pick up a minimum of four, we could pick up as many as seven. alexi: any raises above the where you havees seen around the country that suggest internally or otherwise, that it is helping lift or bring them aquatic house candidates? dan: i think we look to florida
and michigan. the michigan race for governor is forestalled on -- is sort of stalled on their site. anytime that happens, it creates a series of opportunities for everybody underneath them. florida, obviously, we are incredibly excited about the opportunity that the governor's race represents. mike: i just want a say, you have basically said it democrats are going to win on tuesday, leader pelosi has said the same thing. there are a lot of democratic voters out there who are going to hear this and say, only 16, we heard hillary clinton would win and that is not what happened. what gives you the level of confidence given what happened in 2016, for you to sit here and say this. alexi: i think it is important to understand that there is a way to win the majority were a very narrow margin? dan: which i think is possible, and there's a way to win the majority by a margin that is a bit larger, and what is important to understand is that between the open seats and the sheer side of the battlefield -- the sheer size of the
battlefield, there are between 15 to 20 seats that the democrats will certainly pick up. if you look at any tossup seats or leaning our way, there are more.20 so i can't tell you how all the seats will play out, but what i can tell you is that we will win some of them. it will give us and there are majority. on a good night, we could win a majority of them come a larger lead -- expand into a larger lead. alexi: very last question. what is your closing argument to voters? dan: that is pretty clear. if you want somebody in washington dc watching us for your best interests, the cares for your pre-existing conditions , cares about the little card we all carry around with us that dictates the quality of health care we get, if you care about a group of prince -- if you care about prescription drug costs, care about having someone in washington dc working for you, i would vote for your local number
credit. susan: your counterpart on the republican side, john rogers, told us he doesn't think the election will be over on election night, they could have days of recounts. do you anticipate that? dan: 100%. john and i agree on that. susan: with that, thank you for being here with us. dan: thank you. susan: newsmakers is back on this election weekend. we just heard an interesting technical discussion by the two has of the congressional election committees. looking at this campaign, what is different about the way the parties are approaching their congressional maps this year? mike's: it is clear that democrats feel very confident about the landscape, they has but by dan's, estimation, there are 70 seats in play, the huge amount of raising of funds that has allowed them to be
competitive in districts rather were competitive. i feel very comfortable and they have multiple paths to the house majority. on the flipside, republicans also see a path to keep and a majority come of it is much -- holdingd involves onto seats that are in district that president trump won, and and it is trying to play chess game with democrats, mcinnis and in an expensive districts and hoping that that keeps them of more stretched districts in rural areas. right now, things are still unsettled. there is not a guarantee democratic victory, but you differently in a stand where democrats feel more confident, that they would rather be democrats right now the republicans. : and the difference in
their closing arguments. john rogers talked about the resistance idea, encouraging republican base -- base voters to vote against opponents. sena, he encouraged people to vote about someone who cares about you, the cares about your health care. it is interesting to see the messaging, but shows one party telling someone to vote for something, and if there telling you to vote against something, or vote on hope. susan: you asked about what new members of the president. about thenking impeachment. how about the way it is playing out with candidates, especially the new recruits for the democrats that she was not going to go there, but on the campaign discussion is the about the pursuit of a leader
like kavanaugh or the president? alexi: i think the democratic but it does want to talk about it because they believe it doesn't help their candidates and their prospects on tuesday, but there is certainly a number of more progressive democratic candidates, first-time candidates in this cycle who are calling for the impeachment of donald trump. him and not be at the level that republicans make it out to be at different times, but it is something that there are very much color for periodically the impeachment of kavanaugh is something that i've heard much lately, it feels like people are focused on immigration and other things after his confirmation, but i would certainly expect there to be a handful of very vocal members who are new to congress in january, calling for the impeachment of donald trump. mike: those numbers are going to tend to be in more heavily democratic districts. the candidates we were mainly talking about today in more competitive seats have almost uniformly avoided the impeachment discussion.
basically they have taken what idea of nancy pelosi, saying -- let us wait and see what the special counsel investigation comes up with, what our oversight reveals, then we can have that discussion. last question on messaging. dan made the point that negativity does not get people to the polls. is that the same view of the republicans have on what gets people motivated? alexi: certainly not come over here that from the president on down. there are definitely some more printable republican members, such as in florida, mike coffman in colorado, who are not using that same fear mongering rhetoric that we are hearing from the president and others, messaging could not be further apart. mike: dancing that was basically describing a whack a mole scenario where is the president
talks about immigration, maybe it helps in some districts but it creates a corresponding problem in other districts. there is nok that one thing that republicans can get more of the seats, without basically scrambling the landscape, that is what he is talking about. susan: we had consensus from both that it might not be settled on election night, so we could have a long week ahead of us. thank you so much most of you for being here and setting the stage for election night. alexi fish thank you. mike: thank you. announcer: tonight on q&a -- >> seven years ago, the people of the united states set out upon what they thought was a great, liberal campaign. somewhere along the line, we lost the objective. announcer: a two-time pulitzer prize-winning author, david
lewis on his biography of presidential candidate, wendell wilkie. >> here was an internationalist, a great civil libertarian a man of civil rights convictions or would have matched a know, perhaps. say, obama, matched perhaps. a man who was liberal and at the to the rolecessible ,f government in the economy but only to a great degree. i thought all the things about him were appealing and his honesty in reality there was a part of the book really have roosevelt asking him to consider being his vice president when he is going to overthrow henry wallace, he wanted somebody new, typical fdr. wilkie says no. >> tonight at 8:00 eastern on q&a on c-span.