tv Heritage Foundation on Iran Sanctions CSPAN November 6, 2018 10:08am-10:28am EST
it is a election day 2018 and joining us from san francisco is deborah cleaver, the founder and ceo of boat.org. half-hourlk the next about efforts to increase voter turnout. tell us about your organization. on and why have you founded it. actually goes back to the 2000 election where we had 60% voter turnout in america and the presidential election came down to a repeated recount in a single county in florida. andas ultimately decided horrified turnout was so low in a singletry that county could decide the presidential election. i started one organization in 2004 and another in 2008 and then 2016.
post: what is your target audience for getting that out? first-time voters question those who don't show up at the polls? you can watch this and other programs but it will take you live to the heritage foundation in washington, d.c. for a discussion about sanctions against iran. president trump reinstituted sanctions recently after withdrawing the u.s. from the around nuclear agreement earlier this year. >> live coverage here on c-span. thank you so much for your patience. opportunityke the to remind everyone to silence their cell phones. and for anyone watching online, you are welcome to submit questions. to introducesure the host of today's program, jim phillips. fellowhe senior research in middle eastern affairs here at the heritage foundation.
.im: thanks andrew i am glad some eight people could come through voting obligations. people could come to voting obligations. we are at a key in the evolving confrontation with iran. yesterday, the trump administration reactivated nuclear sanctions that had initially reimposed last may. the second round of sanctions shippingat iran's oil and banking sectors. , the crisisound with iran during the administration -- obama administration, there was not as much international ion with sanctions. that has led to more uncertainty about the likely impact of those sanctions.
and how iran is likely to react. they believe they can write out sanctions and outweigh the trump administration. has refused to negotiate on the nuclear issue with the trump administration and undoubtedly hopes to have a new administration after 2020 to negotiate with. for that reason, iranian officials will be watching the midterm election as much as americans. we are fortunate to have with us our expert panel to look at the number of issues. this panel will include the ceo of the foundation of defense for democracies. michael durand of the husson institute. and patrick. we will look at the likely impact of sanctions, what
additional u.s. policies are needed to deal with a wider range of iran's behavior. and what needs to be done, if improved to get to an nuclear agreement. is that in the cards? i will reduce the speakers in order. our first speaker is patrick clawson. he is the senior fellow and director of research at the washington institute for policy. initiativethe iran there. he is widely consulted as an analyst and media commentator. he has authored more than 150 articles about the middle east and is the author and editor of 18 books or studies on iran. he appears frequently on television and radio, and has in beds -- op-eds
newspapers. he has testified before congressional committees within 20 times and has served as an expert witness in more than 30 federal cases against iran. prior to joining the washington institute, he was a senior research professional. he was a senior economist at the international monetary fund and world bank and a research scholar at the foreign policy research institute. take it away, patrick. that thethe sanctions u.s. is reimposed and will work most effectively if the united states can form a broad domestic consensus, broad international consensus on this matter, and can demonstrate effective enforcement of the sanctions. these are all going to be big challenges. i will leave it to my colleagues to address those matters.
interestheir greatest or as my comparative advantage is talking about developments inside iran. let me discuss that. face were challenges we about making the policy work effectively to persuade iran to change its behavior. the difficult political environment inside iran, where there are two factions, each of which are dedicated to preserving the islamic republic but have different ideas on how to do that. they spent most of their time and effort sniping at each other. sanctions get caught up in that. what we have is a group of who call them technocrats or moderates who are deeply
committed to the islamic republic and its ideals and they think the way to achieve this is by smiling rather than spitting in your face. aroundere is a group revolutionary guards believe that resistance, resistance, and resistance is the way to go. the revolutionary guards are quite delighted by the country's economic problems. rialsince the iranian started to crash in march, they and mobilized their media speeches by their leaders to contrast the successes that iran has been having in the regional policy which they run in places like syria and yemen with failures of the economic policy for which the team has taken responsibility. theme is, we, the
revolutionary guards can do a good job but those guys can't. those technocrats told us that --n they replaced that we would have a good team and we didn't. the revolutionary guards are saying -- are in a very good position where if the economy does poorly as a result of the sanctions, they can say, see, that is his fault. he misdiagnosed things when he told you he was running for solveent that the way to the problems was to do a deal with the west. that is not true. naive and we is should listen to him. hand, if the
economy does well, then they can ,ay, see, we told you resistance economy is the way to go and that we don't need the west. in fact, our policy of resistance is what makes sense in the economic sphere and foreign policy sphere. , they economy does badly will take credit and if it does well they will take credit. is an a difficult situation and he promised he would solve it and he did have an ok economic performance for a little bit. noteneral, the economy has done well under his presidency.
according to government sources, it is down 10% from when he took office. that contrasts with the previous decade in which the average household budget rose by 20%. if you go from a decade of 20% growth to six years of 10% decline, you are not happy campers. rou is the situation faces.i sanctions is not going to make this easier. what we have seen is that whether it is the uranian module list center or international institutions like the world bank and imf, all agree to change the forecast in march, where they forecasted the economy would
grow briskly, but now they are saying iran is in a recession and will get worse. rouhani is in a tough situation. environment -- the of maneuvering about whether or not to resume negotiations with the united states about an additional deal. saidut it nicely when he that the basic strategy of the rouhani team will be to outmaneuver trump. my talks with the spring were nervous. now they are extremely confident. confidence that they think, well, we have sustained bad things in the past and we can do it again. anyway tol positioned control the population if there will be any kind of protests.
and we can outweigh trump. the challenge is shaking that confidence. patrick: thank you, patrick. -- speaker isr the ceo of the defense of democracies. he leads projects on iran, sanctions, and nonproliferation. he is an expert on the nuclear expert program and global threat network and is widely recognized as a key influencer to counter threats of the iranian regime. according to the new york times, his campaign to draw attention to what he saw as flaws in the iran nuclear deal has taken its
place among the most consequential undertaken by a washington think tank leader, and that must have cost you a lot to get them to say that. take it away, mark. mark: jim, thank you so much. great to be with patrick and mike. i want to begin because today is election day, talking about the challenge you raised, which is there a possibility of bipartisan iran policy, and what does it look like intentionally if the iranians are right and can wait out trump and a new president in the white house in 2021? i want to begin because it is important for us to acknowledge the iran issue in some respects has become somewhat partisan and polarizing. other respects, a deep bipartisan foundation to it.
it spoke to terrorism, missile, forn rights abuses, support slaughter in syria and in the middle east and around the world. that is where a new president will begin, facing an islamic republic that continues astructive behavior and sanctions structure that will be predicated on all of this maligned behavior will be difficult to suspend or lift as a result. the other reality this president in 2021 that are in in jcpoa will come to a head 2021, the arms embargo that is in the un security council resolution that essentially embeds the jcpoa internationally, the arms engage will be able to
ofunlimited purchases weaponry from countries around the world. 2024, restrictions to launch missiles. iran will be able to procure parts and components for its missile program from countries around the world, but not facing you and restrictions. the restrictions that are both in the u.n. security council resolution as well as european restrictions are going to sunset. iran will bell, able to industrialize centrifuges. these are powerful and allow them to install enrichment facilities with more powerful urania uranium.
that allows for clandestine i'm sneak out options. nine26, -- clandestine sneak out options. in 2026, many restrictions go away because that is the 10 year mark of the jcpoa, which we intimate from january 2016. that is a number of very important restrictions on iran's missile, -- nuclear and activities that will come off in the first term of that new president or early in the second term. political and national security reality is whatever is in the white house in january 2020 will be facing the necessity of combating iran's struct of --ivities and putting in iran's destructive activities
and putting in a policy. i think that is the wake-up call for anybody sitting in the white house. that is the wake-up call or people sitting in iran who are thinking they can wait out donald trump with a view that the next president coming in to office will be very flexible and lift the sanctions and want be using instruments of national power. it is a bad strategy for the audience and they are in for a big wake-up call regardless if you sitting in the white house in january 2021. this administration has two years, potentially six years to implement their iran strategy. it is modeled after the strategy ronald reagan used in the soviet union during the cold war, which is to use all estimates of national power to weaken the regime, neutralize it, rollback influence regionally and
globally with respect to national power, when you have heard and patrick has talked about and you have read about is the financial economic power. we can talk about sanctions, but it is clear this administration is fully committed to financial warfare against the islamic republic and the sanctions that came back yesterday and six months ago are both powerful and having the impact that all of you have been reading about with respect to iran's mastech activities. open instruments -- iran's activities. that leaves open instruments. -- other include [no audio]