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tv   Quadriga - Trump Goes it Alone Europe at a Loss  Deutsche Welle  June 8, 2018 8:30am-9:01am CEST

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to find truth. all we need to feel good because of the enemy in time. and steered by our courageous decisions we must follow each p.c. to. the germans every week on w. . to quadriga as we speak some of the world's most powerful leaders are assembly can counted up for the annual summit of the g seven countries even before the meeting began there were predictions of acrimony on the agenda is us president trumps decision to impose punitive tariffs on steel and aluminum imports coming from the
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e.u. mexico and canada some observers are predicting a six against one confrontation with donald trump the odd man out but divisions in europe make a united front ever more difficult to achieve has trump's america first transactional ism become the nationalist template for other leaders including with in the new. trump goes it alone europe at a loss that's our topic on quadriga today and here are guests it's a pleasure to welcome laura fun daniel she's a senior fellow at the berlin based think tank s.w. p.t. her research focuses on u.s. economic policy and trade and she says the e.u. is currently doing a remarkable job at protecting its interests in very challenging times and i'm glad to welcome brother foreign on the show he is focused person of the german section of republicans overseas and he says there has been a trade in power. for years between the u.s. and the e.u.
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the complaints of the europeans about punitive terrorist are therefore not justified. and finally we're glad to have daryl lindsey with us he's managing editor of spiegel international he says europe is for the most part united against trump on tariffs for now but what if this turns into a full fledged trade war. and let me start out by asking you laura from daniels are we likely to see the g seven devolve into a g six plus one as france's finance minister recently said and if so what implications does that have for europe and for the world as a whole. well first of all it's good that all of those countries and their leaders to coming together and trying to have a dialogue it's often forgotten that there are plenty of topics to talk about that are really important besides trade and the economic parts and i think this
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still a pretty good chance also for other countries even if the u.s. is following a different path on trade in this leading him on a protectionist policy approach right now this to the chance that all of those other countries that are united in the g seven and the g twenty and also all of the member states of the w t o will be able to carry on and just stick to the global liberal international auda do you really think they're going to get to any other topics at this summit besides trade i surely hope they will because that really big crisis like the one in syria and eastern ukraine other topics that are really relevant that we should be talking about topics like equal rights for women and men and so on and if you have a look at the agenda for the g seven also climate change. really the topics that we should be talking about rather than always getting into those fights. the u.s. is giving as its official justification for imposing these punitive tariffs not
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unfair trading practices actually but national security by proceeding under what is a fairly obscure national law rather than under standard w t o procedures isn't the u.s. ultimately thumbing its nose at its allies and perhaps at that rule based international order in general sure bad i mean certainly trump need to react fast lease so he needed a reason in order to do to act like this i believe actually the reason this is a bit different. we have and we don't have an equivalent in the tariffs and that has to be solved for many many years we we claim to. you know the us claimed this. many years like the administration obama but also clinton george bush jr for instance they claimed this many many times and nothing had happened and the w t o x quite slowly and pace years and years of it just talking about bananas with tamala
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took many years for a very minor thing so i believe we need some action now we have a open discussion as we sit here for instance and i think that's very healthy and we need and the president only taken one half percent of overall trade ok so he could have like we could have talked but other goods like like like cars automotive and like that he did so he started up with something very much with a minor thing i believe and now we did the europeans have to be really unified and they have to act have to speak with one voice and i think these talks will proceed and i think we will get to a very positive and ok i want to come back to a couple of those points that you made in just a moment but first looking at the big picture it was shortly after the last g. seven summit that took place in italy that donald trump announced that he was leaving the that the u.s. would be leaving the paris climate agreement many europeans see that together with
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these terrorists together with the u.s. retreat from the iran treaty that it had signed up to as the u.s. essentially turning its back on the entire international order that was established after the second world war do you see a risk of that and if so what do you see as the implications i see taken together there's a there's a very real risk of that happening is the question that a lot of people are asking now is it america first or is it america only all of these moves represent a move away from the multilateral system that the united states actually built in the post-war era out of its own interests it does definitely feel like there's a risk of moving away from that i mean the real danger is if this grows into a tit for tat. if europe responds in july as it plans to do currently and then if it goes beyond that if trump follows through with the punitive tariffs on automobiles which is currently being explored by the government then things get very serious because then you'll see a slow divide a wedge going through europe because obviously the germans have
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a very different perspective because of more bills are the sort of the engine of the economy whereas france has different take they'd like to be very firm with trump but france doesn't even really sell it will be in the united states they've been absent from the market for decades whether in fact they spreads on to the automobile sector is very much a question of the potential for an escalating trade war that you talked about in your opening statement let's first take a look at their reaction to the u.s. announcement that the steel and aluminum tariffs would now be applied to some of the u.s. closest trading partners and friends. president trump seems to get along with canadian prime minister justin trudeau almost as well as he does with french president emanuel micro. but neither trudeau nor micro manage to talk the president out of imposing the tariffs. donald trump has launched an assault on international trade and those affected are pretty upset the fact that the president
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has moved forward with these tariffs is not just going to hurt canadian job just going to hurt u.s. jobs as well. and i believe it's important for the e.u. to make a rapid and appropriate response within the framework of the w.t. . should you go we believe these tariffs are not consistent with w t a regulations . this is a but they probably were. coached arabs is this how america treats its friends. so as we all know donald trump is a bargain or a deal maker and in that context laura daniels are the europeans perhaps taking these terrorists too seriously is this actually just trump's opening bid in a poker game in might be but a i would say the especially the european commission that's responsible for trade policy in the e.u. is taking a very rational and proportionate approach right now and it's obvious and they have
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to keep that this early on that they need to be some counter measures but they're proportionate and now of course everyone is waiting on what will be the next step on the u.s. side but we also have to consider that this significant amount of opposition to further tariffs on cars autos auto parts and so on within the u.s. it would also be much more hurtful if actually took that action i want to talk about that in just a moment but just to drill a little bit deeper on what we heard from ralph and a moment ago it's an argument that has been made by the trump. ministration that there are great disparities if you look at overall customs duties on american imports compared to overall american duties on imports from the e.u. now i did check the numbers last night official w t o numbers it says that on average the difference is about one point seven percent not all that
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large it would seem what's your assessment on that you are a trade expert well it's a typical rhetorical trick i would say on the side of donald trump and also his advice is. to just take one piece out of the whole picture and then blow it up so obviously i mean the rule which is that actually the automobile pieces i understand right here there is a real disparity not even all kinds of automobiles because if you take pickups this allows for much higher terror of sun pickups in the u.s. imported from the e.u. than anything else than anywhere else in the word so it always depends on what parts of the whole picture you look at and also i mean generally it makes very little sense to look at the trade balance as and this has often been said in this whole debate on terrorists it makes no sense to just look at trades and goods and not consider the significant. trade surplus and services that the u.s. has the european union what's your response to that because i know that in your day
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job besides working with republicans overseas you are involved in the financial sector that means you are involved in cross border financial flows are you not concerned that the risks of this action could be a lot greater than the potential gains if we're talking about only an overall difference of one point seven percent is it really risk worth or worth risking a trade or a first of all no it's not i mean i don't see a trade where first of all. second of all i just want to ask something to the figure one point seven it depends if you really weigh the the trade could be i have figures up to two and a half percent of the let's put it in between one one point seven and two percent talking about six percent in one direction and four percent of the other still is about a third difference which is quite a lot referring to the volume of trade first of all and i think there are some
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things parties are part referring to duties to actual tariffs as they stand on a broad range of products in the economy and it was a one point to go shoot it absolutely correct but at some point trade developed differently some goods are likely like not not exported anymore some some even more extended exported even more so there is an imbalance in this and balance i believe needs to be fixed so i think it was a very mild shot from the trumpet ministration to go on those tariffs and i think at i at i think we should now go into talks that was just like it's as you mentioned it bit in a poker game i believe in the end we should go on maybe go back to t.v. ip and go back that it was a transatlantic trade agreement that in fact the u.s. yeah also walked away from absolutely but maybe that's a new opportunity for the new talks maybe we should take out the investment part because that was like the europeans are very critical on that part and we should to only talk about trade but that would be
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a good start for the new negotiation we just heard referencing he doesn't think this could escalate into a full fledged trade war you did mention that possibility in your opening statement we have seen both the e.u. canada and mexico now announcing what are called counterbalancing measures that means additional targeted terrorists within the system but that definitely would take this to another level it's still largely political symbolism these products that have been chosen by cecilia monstro are directed. it's a great commissioner for the e.u. for that you from sweden and she selected products that are symbolic because they come from areas where trump was elected sort of the idea is to directly hit that i mean it's not i expressed my fears earlier i do see a wedge being drawn between europe and i think if it if it gets more serious a trade war could see a division between france and germany but it's not in europe's interest to have a trade war with the united states it's our closest trading partner here are very
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close as trading partner and we need to come to some sort of compromise and i think if you talk to any sensible german politician they also know that something has to be done with the tariffs on the imports and exports here and so we need to find we need to find a middle ground on this and i'm optimistic that that will happen i just fear that with all of these other unilateral factors in the sort of you know bully schoolyard bully on the playground factor that trump represents that it's going to create a lot of tensions and tensions are it's background said you're not going to negotiate with a gun is it your head friend donald trump tweeted some months ago was the terrorists were first announced the trade wars are easy to win do you really think that the u.s. can emerge economically unscathed from a further escalation of this and particularly won't there at the very least the political fallout if in fact europeans stop buying for example so you beans from
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farmers in the midwest well certainly not nobody's interested in a trade war but still the u.s. has in the short run more to gain than to lose because the europeans are exporting more into the u.s. than vice versa so in the beginning if u.s. based manufacturers use steel and aluminum that are imported that means u.s. may see less x. or more expensive exports which asserts one one half percent of all trade so in the beginning i believe is more symbolic i believe in the long run but also heard the u.s. economy drive the beginning because europe is just more dependent on the north american market which is the largest market in the world the interest is more on european side than in u.s. side and i think trump is playing that card but he's not going to pull it at one point. laura daniels weigh in on this if you would please and i asked earlier about the prospects for the rules based order one us commentator said when the terrace were first announced that this would later be regarded as the day the w t o died in
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the world trade organization is there something to that argument well this another problem that we tend to forget and that is u.s. policy toward the w t o and the court systems that disputes that settlement system of the w t o and the us is currently blocking nominations of judges and that is a major problem because in any kind of dispute settlement process that we might end up in between the us and the e.u. and also canada mexico and all of the other countries you don't have a functioning dispute settlement system so that is the big problem i would say rather than talking about tariffs on steel or t. shirts and bourbon and so on we should probably focus and attention to that problem and then the u.s. is sort of. leaning back in it in saying it we need reforms then then no proposals for what kind of reforms they're looking for and that's a problem so we need to get back to the negotiation table. that the g seven g
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twenty level are in the membership and discuss those problems and it's true that those problems date back further than the presidency that's a valid argument there lindsey is there a potential argument to be made that this could even strengthen the w t o in the sense that china at least is suddenly saying very good things about the d a w t o and interestingly enough to say i'm also mum strummed the trade commissioner you just mentioned she has now filed a complaint not only against the us actions but against china in the w t o for its practices on international intellectual property so are we seeing perhaps at least some parties reawakening to a sense of how important actually is i think again i think that's also another. symbolic move because while the e.u. has also. lodged a complaint against the united states at the w t o and china at the same time so it sort of shows the united states that by going after china it shows that we take the
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core issue with steel and other things which is actually china very seriously and so we're going to have a two prong approach we're going to challenge you but we are also going to challenge china so i think there is also a willingness within the e.u. to reform the w.t. oh we just have to get down at the table and i say we i'm american but you have the just need to get back down at the table and have a serious conversation and speak and they want to add we have to keep a close look on the interests of each country certainly we are claiming free trade in in fields where we are very competitive and in fields where we're not very compact if you're not claiming free trade you know of course the chinese want to export their steel and they aluminum of course and the germans want to export their cars but vice versa the europeans you know have very high high high high high tariffs and a cultural good sense and so on so so so the interest the w t o is always to strengthen for their own competitive industries i mean that that's typical let me.
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ask us to take a look at the implications of all of this for europe as a whole because some people say this is a watershed moment not only for the transatlantic relationship and for the c.e.o. but also for europe nationalism and populism are on the rise here as well making it harder than ever for the e.u. to unite on a strong course of action in response to america's terrorists. italy's new prime ministers are separate contests he leads a coalition government that includes an anti-establishment party and the right wing party. country says he's opposed to the new austerity measures to reduce the country's debt. in spain prime minister mariano rajoy was tossed out of office last week after a vote of no confidence motion pro-choice conservative people's party has been plagued by corruption scandals for years. in slovenia the
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center right anti immigration slovenian democratic party won the most of seats in recent parliamentary elections. the s.d.p. focused its campaign on refugee policy to. use the european union losing its grip. delancey let me pass that question right on to you coupled with coming back to what you said earlier you see a potential for divisions particularly even within between france and germany if this trade war or trade conflict does heat up so perhaps you can say something about that as well i see two scenarios one is trumps over all actions are playing into the hands of the populous in europe it could serve to energize them which would further divide the european union and you know protectionism which is what donald trump is pursuing right now is something that would also be pursued by the populace into for country so it kind of feeds into that but at the same time you also see people coming together so the question is going to be you know france and
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germany are playing basically one role right now in rushing up the pressure on the united states but which of these will prevail in the end that it's too soon to tell laura daniels donald trump as we said sees himself as a deal maker in the past couple of weeks it is sometimes sounded as if germany's economics minister sees him self the same way mr meyer has said a couple of things that we need. right think could serve as a basis later on for pushing the e.u. to make a deal and perhaps undermine its own. commitment to a rule based order. yes but as far as i know anything done by the german government as was the french government in this attempt to negotiate with trump and his administration was caught in a tz and also coordinating with the european commission so i mean do you think it will stay that way going forward i truly hope so i think what needs to be done is
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that a strong economy like germany a powerful chancellor like macra needs to. have a she needs understand the needs of everyone involved and there won't be a common european position unless we astronomers also listen to the needs of the southern countries also the central eastern european countries and that's the only way i mean. to be unified also has costs and you know you have to to do that in turn a e.u. bargain first i think that's what's happening right now we see this happening both front does that internally you bargain get even harder to make given the role of the new u.s. ambassador here he said this week that he sees his role within his new post as and powering right wing movements that is a very unusual thing for an ambassador to say wouldn't that amount to inciting the divisions we just saw in that report absolutely i think um he crossed
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a red line for diplomats i think that's not appropriate behavior i think you have to understand what foreign policy should a compilation with but it shouldn't accomplish i mean he should accomplish to influence other we should stay in touch with other countries and we should also go shared with other countries on the on foreign policy we should never never influence domestic politics i mean that's that's a no go we always you know we know this from the u.s. that the cubans who live now. no in any in florida trying to put pressure on the u.s. administration always to influence the domestic politics of cuba it never worked out really should never never try this and i think i'm a baster grand fellows like him should she should learn his lesson and he never should have given the interview to breitbart which is viewed by many in europe as a propaganda channel it's like the american version of r.t. let me ask you this because we are slowly coming to the end of our time we have seen the chancellor angela merkel this week giving several interviews in which she
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continued to take a somewhat ambivalent position in regard to the proposals for european reform that have been put out by french president mccaul and for that reason she is being criticized by some here in germany and in europe as essentially weakening the e.u. at a moment when it badly needs decisive leadership so let me ask of you briefly to answer the question whether trump is dumb amounts to a test of europe's maturity and whether europe can pass that test laura yeah i think america really needs to think of the long term consequences of this reluctance to have more european integration that's a position that's comfortable it gives you more leverage to be ambivalent but now is the moment where you actually need to take a decision and actually the coalition agreement between the city you and d.s.p. dave was pretty clear on where we want to go with this government is going to go in
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the europeans a great direction so they should follow through on what they already decided and put down in words and michael needs to do far more she needs to be courageous or we're going to be headed into a deep crisis in the e.u. . yeah and absolutely she's also my chance or a member also sufficient democrats i think she should try to get the pieces together to talk with one voice but certainly not on germany's i'm bill maher cause always trying that overall cost should be split up proportionally like a lego ball yard and that means really chairman has got to pay the biggest bill marcus of what challenges we are living the united but economically everybody should has to has to work on a home. thank you very much to all of you for being with us here today and thanks to all of you for tuning in to see you soon.
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transport. the line find out what you can do today at redraw the lines. this is the w. news coming to you live from berlin and donald trump says he might invite north korea's leader kim jong il into the white house if next week's u.s. north korea solid goes well the u.s. president talking up the prospects for monday's historic meeting during a visit by japan's prime minister shinzo ave to washington post leaders say they could no longer stars with pyongyang.


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