tv Quadriga - Crisis in Turkey Should Europe Prop Up Erdogan Deutsche Welle August 24, 2018 8:30am-9:00am CEST
everything is wrong i want you to ignore the reality of the whole thing might blow off a member of a system that was out of control. there was. a crash the investment bank lehman brothers start september thirteenth on t.w. . and. alone a very warm welcome indeed to quadriga coming to you from the heart of berlin of the focus this week is on turkey's financial crisis that many observers feel could spiral out of control the turkish lira has lost close to forty percent of its value against the dollar since the start of the year contagion is now the watchword the fear is that the turmoil in turkey could impact other economies but president one has in recent years put turkey on the road to autocracy and he's launched
repeated vitriolic verbal attacks on the e.u. and on germany he saw a question this week your own country get its crisis in turkey should europe prop up. and to discuss that question i'm joined here in the studio by three astute observers and analysts beginning with allen poe's now author and commentator for the berlin newspaper developed who says europe must help turkey the other ones come and go but the turkish people remain europe's bridge to the muslim world. also with us is christophe our national chief diplomatic correspondent for another berlin daily the target christophe believes that the other one is a misguided watercraft she'll only respond to pressure and not to support and a warm welcome to to set a set of the head of foreign news the torch of ellis politics department zeta argues that europe must strive for a stable turkey but not at any cost. thank you all for being here about to begin
with data of course and invite you to map out for us just how grave the current crisis in turkey's well of course the government is still trying to downplay it is trying to say yes we will survive this one is keen on trying to convince the public this way however the citizens are already feeling the pain very very intensely right now is the sacrifies. days in turkey it's a very very important religious event and this year it's to buy to buy an animal to sacrifice and to give to to the poor basically is ten times much more higher than it was a year ago. on a daily basis when you go to the market you no longer can afford the things that you were able to be force of people are really feeling the pain also small businesses they're buying goods and dollars and they're trying to not to reflect this situation to the to the consumers so they're also stuck in between either
they're going to raise the prices and lose customers or they're going to suffer and they're trying to find a balance so it's really it's not good actually right now it's up. people being affected equally or of a specific groups interaction side who are being harder hit than other groups of course the the the poorest of the society is being hit a lot but of course the investors as well because they have all these deaths in new u.s. dollars and euros so they're also being hit stream lee in this crisis. christopher marlowe we've heard about how grave how serious the crisis is it appears that it's going to get worse before it gets better to what extent can all this be later president out of one's door. to a very high degree the financial situation is caused by his wrong economic policies and policies when it comes to the. to the rates for lending and so i think this is
a situation where europe and united states are talking at the moment about europe can influence his course of action offering support but not at any cost under very firm conditions and that is we need an economic aid program run by the international monetary fund we need to stop his blackmailing of partners which he did over recent years just putting german or american citizens into jail and only offering to reason under certain conditions that is blackmailing a nato partner and he is also very unreliable as a nato partner he for example germany had been a special in talkie truth to to help turkey to be in a safe situation with the war next door in syria and even didn't admit german parliamentarians to visit german soldiers and so we had to change that and pull our troops out so there's
a lot of things where the one is unreliable and now he needs our help and that is the moment where we should have very firm conditions under which we will give him financial aid on posing a president that one is to blame oh yeah definitely i mean. he started out as an economic reform. important point and the west especially europe welcomed that and the idea was that turkey with this is a mild brand of islam is and could go beyond kemalist nationalism and the. kurds and turks and other minorities can find common ground in in being turkish and islamic and at the same time having this economic reform but. for whatever reason he abandoned that course he has abandoned the cause of reconciliation of the kurds he's also abandoned economic reform in favor of easy money looks good can build a huge presidential palace in a symbol can build
a bridge across the buspar all financed with easy money most of it going to firms which in our in his orbit of the orbit of his family and that has ruined ruined the economy the problem is do the turks realise that it's his fault or is it succeeding in in peddling the notion that it's actually the fault of the especially the americans with the sanctions and the west and so on who are anti turkish and so on so that's something we need to counter. well as all of us just mentioned president had to and has accused the united states of launching a what he has called an attempt at economic two against turkey let's get a feel for what the president himself and some of his turkish compatriots have been say. there is no difference between the attacks on our economy and the attacks on our religion and our nation the goal is the same and that is to bring turkey and its people to their knees and hold them hostage. yupp them as in let the
americans impose their sanctions we have a president we'll find back on we're not finished yet i had a few dollars and i went right out and exchange them to my mom was going to get out of there. if we stick together the us sanctions won't have any effect on us maybe this will bring us closer together to the addition to. this affects all of us became everything's more expensive prices have doubled what will happen next. it's bad enough for us older folks what about the young people and their future. citizen he was spoiling his will listen to that report yes because you can see that the people on the street are also divided like the country you can see certain people are convinced that. you know if as long as i do ones there everything will
be good and that has a lot to do with his power in the media. allowing his words to be the only word out there and the other people who have not voted for him basically know what's really happening and so that the society the public is also very much divided and unfortunately there are still people who believe in these empty words and it's also actually empty words you say they're certainly drastic words i actually wrote them down again what he said at the beginning of that report the goal is to bring turkey and its people to their knees and to hold them hostage to see addressing with that kind of seemingly paranoid language well he's always trying to demonize the west he's always trying to find new enemies to to make people believe that turkey is on its own and it can only survive on its own and everybody else out there is bad we've experienced this with his his language towards germany with experiences with his communication with the u.s. and with other countries as well in holland so this is his way of trying to. show
this like us versus them kind of language all of you were nodding. agree and this is the this is the problem it's it's obvious that the american sanctions don't help it's given him a handle to shove the blame off to a united states president who is not respected anywhere in the world and you know whereas in fact the u.s. sanctions have only a very little bit to do with the whole question which is homegrown the present crisis and precisely because of this narrative we were on our own that the that europe especially should the dangle president in front of him and say look we're willing to help you out of this crisis if you do the economic. right thing. because and another thing we ought to do or in dodgeville a dirty village definitely needs to get his turkish t.v.
program up and running and to really create an alternative source of information in turkey the way radio free europe and other did during the cold war towards the east this is so important that the turks have no alternative narrative of what actually people in the west feel about while we are offering this economic help which we should. be waiting for the government to do this and we should all know it's not it's not happening. it's not happening i think it should happen turkey's government violates human rights turkey has arrested german citizens. has. as we heard has prevented german parliamentarians from visiting troops in the field serving for nato in turkey and you'll saying there should be a softly softly approach and further sanctions on turkey as i understand it. yes firstly the softly softly approach seems to of work for instance with my colleague
dennis eugen who is imprisoned on trumped up charges no pun intended accused of spying simply for doing his job and there are hundreds of others still in prison who don't have a german parliament passport as dennis did and and and. you know i mean it's horrible but i still think. that we have to somehow at the same time is helping them economic helping turkey economically which important country mustn't break down and there's another reason for this when a country goes into economic downturns for like inventors we had a revolution doesn't happen that's when people are so busy scrambling for bread in a time to think about politics and changing regime it's when people of earth more or less ok that they think about politics and and so you know we have no it vested interest in seeing turkey going down the sink crystal from russia you know but i
would rather arc not soft soft now is the time for pressure and for our influence to achieve corrections in the course of president he's trying to blackmail us all the time he just when he needs our help now he is offering no he released a german talking journalist just a few days ago to make nice weather and nice feelings but he didn't change course and time is not on his site so the first country which would be interested that turkey doesn't goes down the drain is talking and the first leader who should be interested should be president yes we can help him but under a very firm conditions and this is the moment where we can finally influence wrong talkers behavior and try to get him to correct his course and that is his financial course this economic course and how he deals with allies he is an unreliable ally and you can't be a free rider in nato just using nato when it needs when you need it and not paying
attention to the interests of you are close allies like united states and germany when you think you have other interests and russia or china is not a serious a ton of turf for. for the long range. policy where they want to find their place in the world. the question is and before we talk about the conditionality in the terms that would have to be struck for germany helping turkey let's just address the question of what would happen if turkey and germany and europe do turn a blind eye to this time of crisis if they look the other way and say we can't support a country that's no longer committed to democracy what would happen here's a take on that question. the e.u. is turkey's largest trading partner by far the biggest investor as well so a recession in turkey would be bad news for many european businesses. european banks especially those in france italy and spain would be hit hard if
texas businesses couldn't pay back loans denominated in euros or dollars. further economic trouble in turkey could also have serious political consequences some experts predict a new surge in refugees and warn that domestic extremist groups could try to take advantage of the economic and political turmoil. that the president added one keeps blaming the west for his problems he threatened to turn toward authoritarian states like china and russia turkey might even decide to leave nato. what does economic and political instability and have the need for the rest of the world. how dangerous is an unstable turkey i think it's very dangerous i agree the first to lose would be turkey that's true but maybe the second to lose would be europe it's very close we have to think geographically. there are three point five million
syrian refugees in turkey turks garments as a swarm of that around four million. there is a huge refugee deal that has been struck and it seems to be functioning what would happen if turkey were really to go down where are all these people going to go what about the turkish citizens look at venezuela. of course turkey is not at that point but just thinking of the worst case scenario what is going to happen to all those people are they going to stay are they going to look for better options so i feel it's very very dangerous for turkey and for for the european union for turkey to be left alone at a time like this. the refugee issue is a very grave and serious issue here what about the eighth is the status of turkey in nato could turkey eventually withdraw from nato how serious is that threat i don't think that the threat is really big of course there's
a certain risk and we don't want to push them in that direction but if turkey has its census together they wouldn't leave nato because of their own rational national interest and so the question is now how do we balance turkish interests and our interests and i'm rather i'm not for soft conditions i'm also not somebody is saying just we don't have to we can turn a blind eye on it doesn't matter of us or of course it matters but we should be aware of our own influence and how important we are for them and i for other the feeling that we are much more important to our one and the wellbeing of turkey than turkey is dependent and then we depend on turkey's well being of course we depend on it but we have the better carts and that should be the condition for a fair deal that we are aware of our possibilities and our influence and how much
do one needs europe and the west to modernize turkey to stabilize turkey and to get sea economy going again and then these are the conditions for a fair deal and turkish would be interested in it we should be interested in it but we shouldn't make a shift to cheap the of from our actually a good time to to help turkey to get back on the democracy trappy ya first on the economic stability track and then of course. democracy how it works in germany and france i don't think it's realistic to expect that this is the way turkish democracy will look like on the other one in the next years i mean he just it's a country he's a new assault on he's he's almost an autocratic leader said. is no longer going to be honest not all this talk of pious conditionality is not going to be listening he's going to be looking the other way no no he is listening and you mentioned of the deal about the refugees this thing is working so if we if we strike
a deal under the right terms he's willing to to respect the deal of that is that is my lesson i draw from the migrant deal with turkey. this is. to save it is a typically german way of looking at things that somehow people states and leaders of states are rational actors they're not look at putin look at trump. look at some of the things our own leadership has done look at greece i mean no. look look at venezuela look at mr maduro rationality does not impinge on politics especially not on autocrats therefore if turkey goes down the drain just turkey the this is will not mean the end of mr i don't just give him an opportunity to ramp up his his autocratic way of dealing with society that everyone i mean it's.
people in times of stress people turn to dictators when they feel a little better they think about democracy that's the way things go and this idea that we're all rational actors is just not borne out by reality so the point is now we are interested that turkey doesn't go down the drain economically that's a prime interest because if it does go down the drain economic everything else goes down the drain now if we help them will that help democracy we don't know. we don't know but we should make that a conditionality with because they want x. to they would accept it every hour every i wouldn't make democracy point part of the conditionality but i think leaders are behaving rationally it's just a question what you call rational and irrational of course is the fact. they don't know of course the interest of mr. is to get a deal as cheap as possible and our interest is to get a deal which is not cheap but which meets most of our conditions so the earth's
says and he's innocent and highway talking like this a trump time is all about deals and time time is not on mr site and that is our possibility our options now to influence speed in office since two thousand and three doesn't look as though he's going to be walking away from the presidency anytime soon yeah but he has changed a lot i mean at the beginning when when edouard first came to power we had still very much the thinking of a military regimes we had in turkey before and he used it at times european union and that was our common interest to liberalize the talker society because it was his way to get also more belligerent freedom which was a no go under the military rulers before at that time we had to come an interest in our his interests has changed now he himself is you dominating fact or he himself is the autocratic factor in the political spectrum and here we are don't have the common interests here we try to correct his course and that was the moment to do
that but at that time with the european union do they they they said ok we don't want turkish membership we'll give them a privileged partnership so this again drew turkey back and now at this point i think it's really really important that turkey doesn't feel itself left alone again yes there's so much mistrust between the two sides the. american who always made it clear that she opposes turkey. treated the e.u. which was always viewed as an insult and at the same time. president had once ranting and raving about german german nazi procedures and attitudes which he did has done on a many occasions has been perceived as insulting as well and how is it possible to see angela merkel and president one sitting down trump style and striking a deal. it's very difficult. but it is i think believe both leaders should should really sit down and look for a reasonable solution we would we expect them to be reasonable this is what it's
not always the case as we've seen it i'm very optimistic that's exactly what what they will do it's not going to happen over the next case but i expect to see this russian no deal and compromise over the next weeks and maybe two three months because the house is on fire and when the house is on fire you don't have the luxury to discuss things just call the firefighters in this time it's as if a natural firefighters that is the international monetary fund's as help from the european union and go on has to meet certain conditions set us all what i'm saying i'm expecting that that is going to happen i still believe in this kind of rationality of course he has to sell it to mystically and he will sell it. they were thorough it's how he sell it will sound very different than how we will sell it to our audience but that's mobile and international politics is that. yeah i mean i hope you're right ok i hope you're right but look. argentina was in
a similar situation a couple of months back and they called in the i.m.f. the firefighters as you say and they're back on course with i am and directives of who is being called by missed out on his call in qatar qatar which is basically the arab agent of iran and they've going to lend him billions of billions of dollars and i fear you know if we don't make an alternative off and say look don't take the money from qatar the conditions are going to be awful you're going to lose everything you say take our money we also impose conditions you know which are nice to you but at least we're back on the right side a trip rather a little bit more context saida i think a lot of our viewers will be listening and thinking asking themselves the question whether there is a sense that germany has a special responsibility for turkey and its population of eighty million people given that there is such a subset a large turkish community in germany which many very many people are aware of what would your take be on that question of course there is this extreme historic tie
there are all these people with turkish originally living here about three million people so of course it's a very very important partner turkey and they're very important part so this is a window of opportunity where there where there could be a recess on turkish german relations. he hopefully hopefully that's what i'm what i'm hoping for if if president are to one doesn't make interesting statements as he did in the in the previous two years it would be it would be an opening for for turkey and germany to get closer again. let it be known she hasn't actually come out and spoken exposed explicitly on what you know although we've been talking about but she has let it be known that she herself does not favor financial aid from germany to turkey at this point in time is she getting it right or is she getting it wrong. well first there's there's this upcoming summit in turkey on syria they're going to be meeting there and then present on is going to be coming
here before that the finance ministers are going to be again meeting in berlin so i think this is a process that's going to kind of allow the leaders to see and talk behind closed doors and a little bit look at how they can manage a deal probably self course michael doesn't want to give an open check to to add on that would be a one wrong thing to do definitely. getting a right to getting around the. top right consult he's getting it right because this is not about a bilateral agreement it's the deal with the united states with the i.m.f. with europe ok thank you all for that thanks very much indeed for joining me today a crisis in turkey showdown europe proper battle that's been our debate have we can . come back next week by barking.
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