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tv   Check-in  Deutsche Welle  May 18, 2019 3:30am-4:01am CEST

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yes and the 5 permanent members of the security council together with germany all signed up to so what exactly does that mean how quickly can iran rev up its nuclear program are we now in imminent danger of seeing it essentially restart its own program. first of all let me say this much or. into the buys or just appraiser just. gives the rights to iran to the sepia ways the name of that nuclear agreement just like you. give iran's a ride the also spends the right to redraw its obligations if the laws of the do not comment. is not to. resonate. not to destroy their agreement but through schools or government. puts the ball in a crowd also international community especially if we but also russia and china to
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find a mechanism to. read this. you know it was that jones ok and we will come back to the sanctions a little bit earlier but let's take a closer look at this deal at this j.c. the way as you said that at the time it was side to trump's predecessor barak obama called a historical triumph for diplomacy the deal was signed in 2015 after 13 years of frankly 5 permanent members of the u.n. security council on the one side and iran on the other agreed that iran would cease activities that could result in nuclear weapons production and allow robust monitoring and its spec should in return for the lifting of crippling economic sanctions europe russia and china say iran has made good on its commitment under the deal so far so torrie tested what exactly is it that the u.s.
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is objecting to. so if we go back to the 2016 campaign and president trump's criticisms of the iran deal he said time and time again that this was a poorly negotiated deal it was done and acted against a rogue regime and that iran had no interest in maintaining its end of the bargain president trying to renegotiate this deal said that it was going to renegotiate a deal to focus on iran's destabilizing actions in the region in addition to its nuclear program however if we go back a year ago just over a year ago today the united states unilaterally withdrew from that deal saying that it could again renegotiate a better deal with iran what it did not anticipate was that the europeans and the iranians would both stay in the deal and try to make good on again iran putting off its nuclear ambitions for reduction and relief from sanctions and so the u.s. has been i think increasingly isolated in its attempt to try to get iran back to
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the table to renegotiate a better deal so sure among the things that the trumpet ministration accuses iran of are threatening u.s. interests in the middle east as we talked about the idea of the missiles on the boats in the persian gulf that could perhaps be aimed at u.s. forces encouraging aggression by shiite militias in lebanon iraq and syria shipping missiles to hooty rebels in yemen and allowing iranian iran's naval forces to behave belligerently in the persian gulf it's quite a long list and it's by no means fiction. i don't think so for example if you succeed as a case officer monroe iran as so hard highroad. regard. even as a state department told. before the war but. told who to invade
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sanaz all this is very our way towards influence of iran on the hutus on the rehman . saudi arabia knows that iran has no lobby in rest of us iran a surprise attacks to legitimize a policy that does not also do so there are many other countries. that legitimize its policy. by taking iran as a project and if you compare for example the role of saudi arabians the region and the role of iran in the region i do not see is that iran's will in the region is really destabilizing i see it whether this was. supported. take this prime minister. and pressure him to step aside. they are things only problem between those arrests or iran. is
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a case of if you want to salute this solves this problem we have to make peace but when its word and pelisse them and then iran come to a damn think so make no ark the europeans have said. essentially the nuclear deal contains iran is nuclear program and if we bring iran out from in from the cold if we reintegrate them into world markets if we reintegrate them into international diplomacy that eventually will have levers to work on these other destabilizing behaviors that i listed. there the fact is you could say given that that geo political speech you ation in the middle east with this head to head rivalry between saudi arabia and iran wasn't that pretty naive to think that we were ever going to see iran cease that kind of behavior well you could argue so and in fact for for people critical of the deal the evidence has been terror attacks or
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killings in europe blamed on iran over the last few months now there isn't any evidence really for that but some of claimed that this sort of indicates that iran won't stop its behavior and in fact it might feel emboldened by the fact that there's more money there's more economic prosperity but the europeans have been quite calm and stuck to that agreement not even really commented on on those attacks or those killings in europe to try to at least give it a chance at least try it out if it could work and that's the reason why they've set up for instance a clearing house to facilitate trade between european companies and iran even after the u.s. pulled out of that agreement so i can just add to this very briefly i don't think that there were allusions on behalf of the obama administration that iran was
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a good actor in the region and all of the malign activities you mentioned were met with clear eyes by washington this iranian nuclear cord was meant to deter iran's nuclear ambitions and that in itself there was a lot of criticism within washington and elsewhere at the time that it didn't address enough of iran's destabilizing activities in the region but again this deal was meant to deter iranian nuclear ambitions and what i worry about now is that we are back to a time where we have one you know 2 potential paths one iran kind of restart its nuclear processes or to learn to play. of heightened tensions of confrontation between the united states and iran both of these paths the deal was meant to avoid in the 1st place you know act let me ask you about one aspect of that and it goes back to what cheyenne archaea said about this historic rivalry between iran and saudi arabia the u.s. is now positioned itself very very firmly on the side of saudi arabia what impact
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does that have on these tensions with iran is that one of the reason we're seeing things heat up now and what consequences do you think will come of that well certainly it does send a message was especially after the killing and the war in yemen that the u.s. still stands by saudi arabia and sends a message not only to iran but to a lot of other actors in the world but i think in terms of iran specifically yes it does embolden saudi arabia in a way to to get tougher on it and do you think saudi arabia wants hot war with iran . i think nobody wants war necessarily at this point what do you think really labor's also as the late moderate king of. demands from the u.s. to attack iran with leaks. documents. it's not you'll
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that's all durbin is always tries to push us well against iran so let us talk briefly about where things go from here and as i said earlier the incentive offered to tehran in the nuclear agreement was sanctions relief but over the past year the u.s. has reimposed sanctions tighten them up and now threatens to tighten them even further including both minerals and steel let's take a look. after all steel is the 2nd lifeline for iran's economy now in this sector too must fear for its future he really 2000000 iranian citizens work in the metal processing industry. it's not just me everyone's worried we're just praying it all comes to a good end because everyone's being hurt by the sanctions and it's affecting everybody the u.s. isn't only sanctioning iran but also any foreign company seeking to do business
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there this is why more and more firms are now leaving the country. this has dealt a critical blow to the economy in the past weeks prices have doubled making fruits and vegetables an affordable for many. years i do not you know the prices have been going up so we need to adapt rents are skyrocketing we've been saving on food and i was not sure. as poverty grows so does the people's anger with the u.s. and europe. this could strengthen hardliners in tehran. could further sanctions force iran to its knees. shine archaean what are you hearing from friends and relatives in tehran in iran about the situation there . science or imposing off those u.s.
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your military sanctions. it was the for example as a prize goes high 45 present comparing to previous years some for. approximately 40 per cent. we don't we do not resort not have because iran has expert 40 years' experience and invite. things sanctions yes the sanctions hurt iran but it will not bring iran to the knees it won redirecting the what will come 20. 2020 in the next us presidential election there's basically 2 definitions of bringing iran to its knees one is whether prolonged hardship would possibly cause the population to rise up promote a resistance against the regime and the other one is whether it would essentially
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force the regime to make concessions you're saying neither because if you also look at soros or so university of maryland you see since the sanctions. people in iran. the people in iran do not like more to have negotiation or us that is this if you really come from eyes with so you as if it gives more. the u.s. want more becomes the calming popular. people and most of the suffering comes from the sanctions in the past people think it was. too high person mismanagement but no it's not sukkahs more torito sic is issued an ultimatum to the remaining parties to the nuclear deal but especially to the europeans demanding that they find a way to evade the u.s. sanctions and trade with iran in
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a meaningful way within the next 60 days any chance that's going to happen this ultimatum puts the europeans and a very difficult position in terms of what to do next it either can continue to do business with iran and try to make this deal stick or it can decide that its business with the united states is too important and let that kind of financial ties between iran and europe fade if europe does so i think iran has within its power the interest to develop closer relations with russia with china to. look elsewhere outside of this western multilateral framework for economic and financial relief could russia and china really pick up the slack to the degree that tehran is clearly hoping no i mean if we look at the economic bite of these sanctions just over the last year international estimates said that the iranian economy was already going to shrink by 6 percent over this year and i really do think that there is this deepening economic bite within iran in which it needs europe to
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comply by the terms of the deal in order to get out of this economic catastrophe rick know if the europeans took a pretty extraordinary step this winter they created a new payment system to try to create essentially a space for european countries to trade with iran without having to go through u.s. based payment systems in itself a pretty extraordinary step these of an hour i think u.s. but apparently it hasn't worked very well is there any chance that this could be expanded and made really substantive in the next 60 days well that's a really good question and it is highly interesting experiment that frankly is being watched very carefully by diplomats around the world frankly because it does come down to what you just said the u.s. and the dollar as the dominant currency and there's no way around it it is however questionable whether it is going to have an impact that could preserve that deal
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because the iranians have gotten very frustrated over the last few weeks that it's still not really up and running and a lot of companies have pulled out and it is uncertain if they would be willing especially if you have a a major company a global company a 2 to risk being part of those and lose the u.s. market for instance or sanctions right we're just about out of time but let me come back to the question posed in our title let's jump ahead 60 days ultimatum has expired are tied. well was a deal or war where you think will be more because if you look at some history of off us false you'll see us all there is only attack countries. but also mere law look up leave. and the wrongness to. the cinc it's incomparable the best thing we can hope for is for the iranians to come back to the table and talk to one another in the next 60 days or is not might still
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be in the same position we're in today. thanks very much to all of you for being with us thanks to you out there for turning n c said.
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