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tv   The Day  Deutsche Welle  June 18, 2019 6:02am-6:29am CEST

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attacks on 2 oriel tankers washington's next move could be a military one including $6000.00 more troops in the gulf if the us is rushing into war iran is ready to retreat the end of the iranian nuclear deal will begin in 10 days time tonight the only force that may be able to change the course of both the u.s. and iran is your i'm burnt off in berlin this is the day. the countdown has. to do the situation is extremely explosive expose you more time on oh yea if we decide to block the strait of hormuz not a single drop of oil will get through of course not sure if you tell us or cause military confrontation in the gulf which set the whole region
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a place so they want to come up. with what is or will not allow iran to get nuclear weapons. and the americans are living in a hollywood movie just like in mission impossible film. also coming up tonight gloria vanderbilt died today at the age of 95 an heiress of america's 5th avenue elite remembered for the blue jeans that she sold on america's main street in my new scratched denim jeans and they are pleasure to wear i use a special more shiny fabric with just enough again so they feel simply wonderful on and they fit my likeness to no nickering. but to our viewers on p.b.s. in the united states and all around the world welcome we begin the day with iran ready to quit the nuclear deal the u.s. ready to send a. in the troops and europe cold right in the middle washington is considering
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sending troops thousands of u.s. troops to the gulf region in response to what it sees as growing iranian aggression at the same time tehran is giving notice on the nuclear deal that was supposed to keep nuclear weapons out of a rainy and hands us president truck pulled out of the deal last year and reimposed the same shin's on iran but the deal did not die europe russia china and iran all the signatories except the u.s. they have stayed true to their word but now iran says that will all end in 10 days today on television these spokesman of iran's atomic agency said that his country has options. to shop should we can judge the monday we have already said that if we choose to go back to using the old reactor. i think given that we have the spare pipes. we can replace these with the new ones. that way we can
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restore the main core. we can also rebuild the whole thing. because we are in possession of its blueprints. going back to the former reactor depends on the europeans actions. we prefer a modern redesigned reactor we have made progress in that area. and the design is in its final stages and it is. however we need the europeans assistance to procure the necessary equipment. even if the europeans don't help us we can do it by ourselves. it is just a lengthy procedure. all that i have mentioned can impact the country's decisions like that. well there was
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a moment when the message that we tried to get across to the europeans today. was that there is not much time left for them you know for suddenness ya know that i'm a cry for help where is that old tomato or talk about that i'm joined by my colleague he is in luxembourg tonight where european union foreign ministers are meeting good to see you i want you to take a listen to what the e.u. foreign policy chief said earlier today about the iran nuclear deal and about any hasty decisions to declare it dead take a listen i would assessments on the implementation of the nuclear deal. has never been is not and will never be based statements but on the evaluation that the i.a.e.a. makes. the reports that the i.a.e.a. produces and that can be done at any time because we base our assessments and i
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would judgements on facts on the vacation mechanisms that are in place and that we trust and so 10 days time iran is going to be in violation of the nuclear deal which is known as the way does europe have any new plan tonight that could save the deal. no federica mcgreevey the e.u. chief diplomat has no new plan she still has only a glimmer of hope that somehow the europeans will be able to save this maybe to mediate between the 2 parties between the united states and iran but there's also after a few hours of deliberations here in luxembourg a sense of desperation and even helplessness because what can the europeans do they are asking done the only thing the german foreign minister. because it was appealing to the pod is to to deescalate and not to talk themselves into war but
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the e.u. has no real leverage neither iran nor on the united states to deescalate so it's a talking and they will keep talking and mrs miller we need to fly to washington tomorrow but you don't know yet who she will meet as you fly to washington but will remain cold between iran and the u.s. i want you to take a listen to how the u.s. state department is describing how this is gone from a nuclear deal dispute to terror on the high seas to now maybe war take a list you know so i think what we're seeing here is really a challenge not only in the case of pilate it really a challenge to the international norms on how a country behaves a challenge to the international norms on our freedom of navigation and freedom of the seas and so we you know would would say to the international community that we should not yield to nuclear extortion by the iranian regime that's
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a big stretch there that the cheesemaking bear regardless of what the u.s. says tonight what does the e.u. do in 10 days if the nuclear deal is violated by iran will it slap sanctions back onto iran. well the problem for the europeans is they don't buy the story we just heard from the state department they are not convinced that the iranians are actually behind these attacks on the tank as that means that they are still doubtful they don't they do not stand by the united states on that point except of britain which is the only country that is agreeing to this citations from the us and in 10 days the e.u. will probably do not much because they will wait until the official report from the international atomic. is on the table which then maintains that the violation is that and even if the iranians cross this 300 kilogram red line of
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enriched uranium that doesn't mean that there is already a breach sivia breach of this treaty because there's still a 98 percent away from what they had in 2015 but it comes to enrich uranium so that still time say the europeans no need to take immediate action in 10 days right hurry up and wait as they say you have used in luxembourg tonights ben thank you. but today in a cairo courtroom the man who was once egypt's president the only democratically elected president died at the age of 67 mohamed morsi and the muslim brotherhood well they were swept into power back in 2012 just one year later morsi was ousted in a military coup he'd been in jail ever sence morsi reportedly collapsed today during a court session in cairo he was rushed to the hospital where he later died.
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7 years ago in 2012 mohammed morsy became egypt's 1st democratically elected president. a member of the muslim brotherhood which has since been outlawed morsi won 51 percent of the vote his election followed the arab spring uprising which till the end of a 30 year rule under previous president hosni mubarak who mostly promised to head a government for all egyptians. but dissatisfaction quickly grew prompting huge protests against him but many were angry about the muslim brotherhood's influence on politics and believed most he had failed to deliver on his promises. after just one year in office morsi was ousted in a military takeover led by egypt's current president abdel fattah el-sisi.
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mosi was immediately arrested and remained behind bars until his death he was serving a life sentence related to the killing of protesters in 2012 demonstrations and he was facing at least 6 other trials his supporters say the charges against him were politically motivated and that he was being mistreated and denied medical treatment whilst in prison the muslim brotherhood has blamed the egyptian government for his death. takesh president resurrect type ad one paid tribute to morsi while also condemning president el-sisi. you see because the main rest al brother morsi armadas soul and peace with. the more chrissy beautiful as you know are the tyrant sisi who took power in egypt by suppressing democracy through coup. has
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so far executed nearly 50 egyptians and the west has remained silent you see. meanwhile egypt's chief prosecutor has released a statement saying medical experts will determine the cause of most east death seemingly so sudden in the courtroom on monday. was will there be this space in front of the legislative council this is quite symbolic because on wednesday the reason why the police acted so violently why they shot so much tear gas and rubber bullets was according to them because protesters had tried to enter this area now the police have retreated and the protesters are here they're trying to keep up the pressure to the government and they have vowed to stay until this bill is scrapped and possibly until carry lamb steps down that's
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what he is billing are reporting there in hong kong i'm joined of the big table now by clifford coonan he is a veteran correspondent t.v. reported extensively on china so tell me clifford when we look at what the protesters have achieved right now can we say they've won the battle but there's still a much longer war still to be fault. i think that's what's happened they've so far they've got pretty much everything they were looking for they've got kerry to apologize they've got the bill shelved which was very unpopular in hong kong as we've seen too many people have shown us. and i think probably most importantly of all they've shown that hong kong can't be forced to accept legislation that they feel doesn't fit you know mainland style legislation to fit hong kong and i think that's a big big victory for them one of the leaders of the 2014 protest movement in hong kong was in prison he was released today just the one he spoke to t w about hong
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kong's embattled leader kerry listening to what he said. evil is not enough because we. where. we activate the game that's why we urge for full withdrawal apologize is not enough because. she order polish and a lot polish hold a gun should twist people just apply what beijing. that in 98 and i. just copy what happened in the air and hong kong is such a more modern city she's not capable anymore how can the leader of the government allow polish holder twist people that's really terrible. i mean clip a day you've got him in a mentioning tiananmen square which by the way in china is not even a part of official memory and we really want to forget that could be beijing tried
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to reason in a resort to tiananmen square measures one day to bring hong kong in low i don't think we're going to see something like tenement square i mean this is a lot of people so much autonomy the international focus is there it's a different situation but there are things that beijing can do. it's been a terrible month for beijing it started off with the 30th anniversary of the $989.00 crackdown on the democracy movement and then barely 2 weeks later we have this huge expression of disapproval with with mainland china as tactics shall we say in hong kong so now we have to see what asian is going to do and how they're going to react to what what do you think she's going to do you stand behind caroline right now but i mean i don't see him as a leader who would be willing to lose face for her no i think i think she probably understands the i think so far it's been silenced
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a lot of what we're hearing from beijing is blaming foreign forces which is a fairly common tactic. i think that i think could easily go on this the question is who would replace kerry probably some quite similar as someone who would do beijing's bidding so i think i think and also mainland china has shown there is very good at the a playing the waiting game and are playing it slowly the umbrella protests where moderate success but then they didn't really change that much yeah i mean you bring up a good point what is the end game of these protesters and we know what is scheduled to happen in 2047 you know the one country 2 systems agreement war ceased to exist then so if you are a hong kong or and you're protesting there what what and for how long are you willing to protest. you know i think that's an interesting question i think at the moment where we've just gone past the half point i think. there was always the expectation that this sort of the the more democratic autonomous side would would
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gradually give way to the chinese side in the 2nd half what we've seen in the last couple days has been truly remarkable. and i wonder and trying to just imagine what it must be like to live there that to be the world that you know into realize that 2047 will come are our people in hong kong are they are the deluding themselves are they hoping that something will happen that illegally is not supposed to happen well i remember when i was covering this the umbrella protests i remember doing an interview with several people one person was a pilasters teacher one person was a university lecturer and i remember thinking at the time these are people how can you say that these people can't have a say in their political destiny all the arguments that hong kong isn't ready for democracy or whatever they clearly don't apply in hong kong this is an incredibly sophisticated place so what you have is this huge argument and i think the answer to this argument is something we're going to see in coming months yeah i think the
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volatility level is definitely going to go up instead of going down but you know we use clifford for it's good to have your insight thank you. well u.s. president donald trump is expected to officially launch his reelection campaign tomorrow but he'll be doing it with a new group of numbers crunchers trump's campaign team fired several pollsters over the weekend after their data was apparently leaked data showing trump badly trailing his main democratic rival former vice president joe biden in several of those key battleground states truck calls the polls fake and he has accused the media outlets who reported the data and he's accuse them of treason or to talk about the business of polling in the united states i'm joined now by jay williams he is director of polling it hugo of he's joining us via skype tonight from new york it's good to have you on the show i want to ask you what did you think when
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you heard the president's pollsters have been fired because the president didn't like the numbers they produced. oh well i mean 1st thanks for having me on. i have 2 thoughts for some of us like you know you have public numbers and private numbers and you have to be able to trust those numbers and people have to be able to come to you if they have the bad but the other thing is you know kind of data security i mean it's perfectly understandable being upset with people who are leaking your numbers to the press yeah i mean and we know that this administration in the it has had plenty of leakage problems since the 1st day what about public polling is not precise we know that it can it could be terribly wrong as we learned in 2060 can you explain to our viewers around the world what why the president the u.s. president and the u.s. media why they remain almost obsessed with polling data and this
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horse race polling that that we're seeing right now. so i have to push back a little bit the polling wasn't that terrible. but i have a vested interest being a pollster but the other thing is that. in the absence of i mean it's data it's still something that we can reflect on it something that tells us whether we're being surprised by data or whether confirms our beliefs data always trumps no data and so the deal of polls is that we just have to be more skeptical about the data and we have to like. put more effort into understanding what the data is really telling us and and are we being too overconfident and what the polls are telling us do you see a danger in the polling numbers helping the president because he's actually demonizing them i mean do you see kind of a reverse psychology that could be working in the the psyche of americans.
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all right so what you want to i mean americans like underdogs right and so attacking the media for not saying what you want it to say i mean that seems to work for the president faster i mean remember he did win the election the 1st time so. you know in the polls all painted that he was going to lose so to a certain point there's nothing for him to leave the feel like attacks the polls now whether or not the polls actually reflect reality maybe that's something the spill or attention to remember speaking with some colleagues of yours you go who had worked on your polling for the u.s. presidential election in 2060 but also had looked at the brits at referendum and i was struck by one thing that they kept saying in that it had become harder to do polling because. 20 years ago 25 years ago you could call people and they would
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answer the phone you know you had these landline numbers where you could reach people and now people have their cell phones their mobile phones they don't answer the phones it's become harder to reach the statistical groups that you need for it to be a sound survey i mean is that what has happened is it harder today to do what you do than it was 20 years ago. it is most definitely harder to do telephone polls you have to account for people who don't have landlines and the united states that number keeps growing and growing and growing however you go we mainly use an online methodology which is we've done very well with and we stand by our numbers but that's one way to counter the declining rates of people answering their phones is using the internet using the internet let me ask before we let you go looking at 2020. do you think that when election day is coming on we will look
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at the polling data and be more satisfied with the numbers we have compared to or we had 2060. i think so i think every pollster l. for at least every reputable pollster out there the thing they care about the most is being accurate we are doing lots of behind the work behind the scenes work on making sure that our numbers reflect what we really believe is the real number out there the other thing is we're trying to do a lot better job explaining where we think those numbers are pretty solid and where we think those numbers are a little less solid for example you know even with bribes and with the us 2016 presidential election was a very small difference that led to the outcomes if like fewer than 200000 people would change their votes out of $120000000.00 votes cast then it would be president clinton not president trump so we're trying to convey uncertainty but we do stand
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firmly behind our numbers are right joe williams the director of polling if you go joining us tonight from new york joe we appreciate your time tonight and it's good to hear a positive take on the business of numbers thank you could have you on the show. thank you. it's in the united states they are saying goodbye to the poor little rich girl gloria vanderbilt heiress and fashion designer died today at the age of 95 vanderbilt was born into one of america's richest families as a little girl and she became the focus of a sensational custody battle that kept making headlines and had her protected at times by 12 bodyguards she'll be remembered by most for her contributions to fashion she developed a line of tight fitting jeans that became required attire for any woman aspiring to
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style in the early 1980 s. her death was announced by her son the news anchor anderson cooper so you want to feel for those genes by vanderbilt here's the feeling that they gave those women back in the early eighty's take a look. to build is that energy in school learning oh you're too rich yeah they don't cut a pinch anywhere what makes them this comfortable in my new scratch denim jeans and they are pleasure to wear i used a special version a fabric was just enough to give so they feel simply wonderful on and they fit like like this too not a great stretch and it was the feel is fantastic is basic story of an adult stretched enemies for shiny now with books and skin on the graveyard but with a different day tomorrow is another day as well we're see you then everybody.
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