tv The Day Deutsche Welle June 22, 2019 1:02am-1:31am CEST
50. i'm. it was go until it was not cocked and loaded to attack iran president donald trump pulled back from the precipice would just moments remaining calling off military strikes on iraq crisis averted or deferred tehran's downing of an american surveillance drone prompted the aborted retaliation by the u.s. bringing the arch enemies dangerously close to war fanning the flames of war and posturing with lives on the line where do washington and tehran go from here on. this is the day. the president may not intend to go to war here but we're worried that even the administration may be bumbled into a war no i'm sure in the in which you know that the ultimate player ever did that
with the rain and we melted to high consumers. and with muscular everything we can and not to escalate the situation chilled out war is very wearing and stressful for us it will be an experience we have already laid out and it gets scary but one skill is depleted every person has to defend his homeland security. protocol but that it all turned into iran's territorial waters we won't back down to balt. also on the day residents of istanbul are changing or canceling their summer holidays so they can vote again for who will be the mayor of the largest city in turkey all this after arrival of president wretch of type one the 1st time around but at the president's urging the electoral commission said there were irregularities and determined. the votes needs to happen again not injure the young
good on that we've had many elections during summer but i have never seen something like this on the big 500000 people from istanbul have changed our council their travel plans so they can be here and vote in the election. president donald trump blocked planned airstrikes on iran just minutes before they were to begin that news 1st reported by us media was confirmed by the us president himself who used slightly more flowery language than the new york times trump tweeted the u.s. military was quote cocked and loaded to retaliate on 3 different sites for the downing of a u.s. spy drone on thursday he added a general told him 150 people would have been killed a u.s. military strike was reportedly averted by just 10 minutes when mr trump apparently 1st heard specifics about the possible collateral damage
and their reporting on the u.s. military attack preparation and the president's tweet in response leave the world a bit breathless tonight i want to speak 1st with iran analyst ben to lulu he is with the foundation of defense of democracy a think tank in washington he is joining us however from singapore where he is currently a very good evening sir is this a needless crisis. good evening to you it could be seen as a needless crisis but why is it was i think it's important to have the facts in proper place here it's needless because iran has engaged in a marked escalation that is actually quite different from the way iran prosecutes its foreign policy and national security strategy iran is in a asymmetrically strong country with conventionally weak country when it comes to military power so iran tends not to engage in direct confrontations iran's decision
however to fire directly from its territory using a surface to air missile against an american drone shows that there may be a change going on in iran's national security thinking about red lines about american escalation and about how far they can push and if this change is sustained over time that would mean that iran would become more bold in the region and that itself would be needless given the tensions in the region already and given the 40 years of enmity between the u.s. and iran but that begs of course the question is what is the incentive for iran i mean is being backed against the wall because from tehran's national security perspective they would have to respond to any perceived u.s. military intervention. well from terrans national's perceived security perspective they would have to respond to perceive military intervention but a drone which is largely engage in reconnaissance should not count as that and historically i think drones have monitored iran's territory beatrice nuclear program missile program or other or other malign activities that americans and
other allied forces want to keep eyes on al be it from a distance there are of course a few times in iranian history in the 40 years of these long republic when iran has backed down and if you look at that history it actually has backed down when it was presented with the alternative of no way out of the room or as you mentioned when the back is to the way iran ended the 1980 s. and 1988 iran iraq war when it was extended needlessly for 6 years is an example the for the 1st 7 years of that war the founding father of the islamic republic khomeini said war until victory and at the end he said he drinks from a poison chalice and like in accepting a u.n. cease fire resolution to drinking from a poisoned chalice so i think the conditions here and washington should be trying to put to iran's back to the wall and then offer to clear a pathway but by all accounts and by the looks of it iran is not about to capitulate so i'm just wondering what does success look like from your perspective and that of the u.s. . that's an excellent question because by all accounts i think iran is going to be
escalating further and not just in the area that you mentioned which is you know pushing back an un-american a military sense in the persian gulf i think we can expect to see more of what we saw in may in countries where iranian proxies are active such as iraq and syria out expect them to do want to target u.s. forces or u.s. assets or u.s. interests in the cyber domain i would expect iran to be quite active the missile test in world as well as well as iran's nuclear program president rouhani of iran laid out 2 timetables to grow iran's nuclear program throughout this summer willingly saying that iran would would transgress the limits imposed on it by the j.c. people a nuclear deal but in my view this is iran building up leverage iran saying that it too has its own escalation options and it's trying to use all of these different escalation to intimidate washington to make sure that there is a split in the transatlantic community as opposed to unity and force washington to more publicly say that it wants a deal weaken the sanctions that exist and drive washington to the negotiating
table as opposed to washington driving to iran to the negotiating table what is a high risk strategy by there's a high risk strategy because what happens if mr town tend not get a bigger better agreement because in the end what has pulling out of this nuclear deal it's heaved a deal with iran which according to the i.a.e.a. risk complying with fully. well that's that's also important point because when the u.s. left the deal last may the reason given for leaving the deal was not related to compliance the reason is corn to the us that what america traded away its sanctions leverage was far greater in value as to what iran gave up which was limited time sensitive concessions about the nuclear issue only so by washington restoring the sanctions that the j c p o a once waived is trying to create the same conditions that got iran to the negotiating table but once iran gets there to broaden the aperture and have a bigger discussion now i think iran is actually in the very short term winning the
battle here because it's trying to paint the administration in washington as rhetorical tough when it comes to action week and so iran is trying to solidify a narrative that america cannot in fact to borrow from the founding father of the islamic republic for many it cannot do a damn thing quote and this is in fact a pretty dangerous narrative to want to stick on to the administration because the ministration could be incentivized to escalate in response to it's iran to prove that there are problems so i think what has happened is washington has generated tough penalties that the value is that often has done in 9 months what took multilateral sanctions 6 years to do when you look at the iranian economy and the goal of course is to make to iran realize that there is no way out but through and it is a bigger broader better deal that is iran's own interest iran analyst to have an eye on that benefits have who with the foundation of defense of democracy said thank you for weighing in thank you so much. next so i like to turn to washington and the voice. of the international crisis group mr bass is the
project director on iran there and known around washington and undoubtedly in tehran for an opinion piece headlined the u.s. should strive for a stable iran instead it is suffocating it well he won't there's so much discussed peace in the washington post with a former iranian foreign minister and ambassador to the us from before the iranian revolution all right and mr vi as i'd like to welcome you to the program you noted in your op-ed that you are from the post iranian revolution era but you and ambassador are dish it is a d r united basically in calling on the u.s. to stop threatening iran you heard our previous guest probably shouldn't iran stop its recent provocations in the gulf region the attacks on the oil tankers shooting down the drones. look one has to understand the sources of iranian conduct and why is it that the iranians are now engaged in this kind of pushback i think
it's if you look at the last time that iran interrupted shipping in the persian gulf it really goes back to the heights of the iran iraq war so what is it that has pushed iranians to take these kind of provocative actions that i would say the answer to that it's very clear that the trumpet ministrations maximum pressure policy and the fact that they run eons. after a year of waiting for the remaining parties to the deal to throw them some sort of economic lifeline have had an off and they're basically pushing back at this stage both in the nuclear realm and in the region but this was an entirely predictable outcome of the trumpet ministrations maximum pressure policy what is iran in in your view telling the world and the region with its recent actions. well the iranians are extreme but i think trying to do 2 specific things they're trying to deter the trumpet ministration from further ratcheting up pressure
against their on by demonstrating that there is a cost associated with u.s. policy but they're also compelling the remaining parties to deal the europeans the russians and the chinese to try to do their best to provide iranians with some sort of economic incentive that would justify. them a lot missing in the deal and continuing to demonstrate restraint in the region how prepared in your assessment is iran for a military confrontation with the u.s. who look and i think this is something that the iranians would like to avoid and that's why in the 1st year of the trumpet administration's maximum pressure policy they iranians demonstrated the maximum patience strategy and they really refrained from dangerous care mischa's with the us in the persian gulf they sat on their hands and did not retaliate against more than 200 israeli strikes strikes on their
assets in syria. but again now because of the success of u.s. sanctions and driving their economy into the ground they are starting to lash out and at this stage i really think the only way out and the only option would be escalation is for the stronger party which is the united states to take a step back and try to provide a iranians with some sort of retrieve that would then create space for diplomacy what's the likelihood of that. it's extremely tough because both sides are entrenched i think the trump of ministration generally believes that its maximum pressure strategy is working by weakening iran in historic modes unlikely to want to step aside from it the president has surrounded himself with a group of iran office who have been seeking regime change and. a military confrontation with iran for years so he is actually the only one who is demonstrating restraint here on on the u.s. side but the iranians are also reluctantly engaged because they don't want to do so
with a gun to their head out of fear that this will encourage the u.s. may increase the pressure and not to alleviate it and at the same time they don't trust the trumpet ministration which is filled with iran hawks who are seeking regime change rather than behavior change of their own so who can at this stage diffuse the situation can europe diffuse it shit they. well look at the 3 main european countries signatories to the deal france u.k. and germany they have created a banking mechanism that adds helping iran to preserve humanitarian trade with with europe i think what is needed at this stage is to turn the mechanism operational and this would require the tree to inject some exports credit money into it so the becomes functional almost immediately and i think that would help the iranians that he's stopped the in the nuclear realm but but you know again i have to
emphasize here that the iranian leadership does not want war the same way that president trump does not want war but we are in a climate that friction between the 2 sides is at a level and given the degree of tensions and the fact that there is no channel of communication that we can easily stumble into a conflict with a simple accident or an incident that no one has reviewed conforte will bilateral relations ever normalize. look no enmity is for ever in the same way that no alliance is. perpetual war and i think it is quite possible that at some stage both sides both come to the conclusion that enmity between them is extremely costly to both sides and to the peace and stability of the region writ large but that would require i think cooler heads to prevail both in there on in washington but in the short run the most important
thing is to prevent an escalation that would result in a devastating military confrontation between the 2 sides on a regional conflagration and that could be done if. an effective mediator maybe the europeans maybe the japanese maybe the swiss sword on my knees would be able to find a middle ground in which both sides are able to save face and at least step back from the brink by as director of the international crisis group's iran project thank you sir for coming on not pleasure. now a question for voters in istanbul willoughby's 2nd time lucky in their city for turkey's ruling party all this sunday in the country's biggest metropolis the mejor all election that saw an opposition candidate win for the 1st time in decades is being rerun hundreds of thousands are said to be delaying their summer holidays so they can vote there is again
a distinct possibility that present rich have to have everyone's a k party will lose its grip on the city. this is how the final phase of election campaigning looks like in istanbul at the ferry terminal in the cuddy could district the major parties have set up their stalls and they're doing their best to drown each other out. the city has been in campaign mode for almost 6 months now he narrowly won the mayor's office in march a criminal it was the 1st opposition victory here in istanbul in 25 years but been early years of the ruling a.k.p. wasn't going to give up the city without a fight his party followed complains of irregularities and obtained a rerun of the election so now it's round number 2 in the fight for turkey's most important city was the crimean mom who has been back on the campaign trail for weeks he still considers himself the legitimate mayor of istanbul and the decision
to rerun the election politically motivated but she has accepted it and he's determined to win again by a decisive margin. someone is. of course the selection we run is a waste of time money and energy. and every day i'm faced with an obvious smear campaign. but this is something we have to deal with. and i believe that we will emerge unscathed and stronger from this experience. the date of the rerun is another challenge for him and his party the c.h.p. the vote takes place on june 23rd in the middle of the summer holidays that's when many people from istanbul are usually on the cation but because the last election was decided by such a slim margin this time every vote counts. the
opposition has even put out spruce warnings don't go to boardroom on june 23rd as heavy. no fall is expected and the beaches will be shut whether it's down to the tongue in cheek at birds or not travel agent gem pull out almost as many as stumble lights have indeed changed their holiday plans a lot and. we've had many elections during summer but i have never seen something like this the. 500000 people from istanbul have changed or canceled their travel plans so they can be here and vote in the election. the ruling aka party is also vigorously campaigning on the streets their candidate for mayor at the 90 year durham was turkey's prime minister until last year he's playing on his political experience but president add one who held one election after another in support of his man in the initial vote in spring is now noticeably holding back nevertheless the party's volunteers say they're sure of victory that. we all go through
mitchell's years obsession with the c.h.p. is definitely trying to create the impression that they've already won but we're optimistic in the 1st round our votes were stolen and now we're going to get them back voters keep telling us that they want but not a used to them from me and called willing people when. whoever wins is stumble wins chuckie is a well known saying by president add one himself this time around many voters in this significant city would be happy of the winner of the election would also be recognized as such elite in the $100.00 porting there and we can go to yulia she is in is strong for yulia is there a clear front runner at this stage. opinion polls here in turkey are considers notoriously unreliable but most of them show the opposition
candidate creamy mom ahead with up to 8 percentage points but i met president add one yesterday in a rare meeting with foreign journalists where he dismissed the days as manipulative and made on order the real poll adwan says would take place on sunday so despite the opposition and a crummy model being hopeful that they can win again there is a lot of uncertainty as to what will happen on election day now if you joined her on the campaign trail who ringback is he can you tell us about him. well until a few months ago he was little known even here in turkey he was the mayor of an outlying districts off the east but the fact that he narrowly won the election in march and when was then stripped of his mandate at the request of the ruling party propelled him on to the national stage he has led an all embracing grassroots
campaign he has been talking a lot about love and unity this might sound trivial but this has played well with people here in this highly polarized society where political language is oftentimes a very aggressive extremely mamma who represents a secular leftist party the c.h.p. but he's also a religious man so he appeals to conservative voters to traditional a.k.p. vote has as well i talked to some istanbul the election is very important this time when more decisively and this could be the beginning of the end for the ruling party rule works real well all the hockey and what was done to him was very unfair he deserves a chance this man that's his right. he's trying to be there for everybody and instead of who they are that's his way of doing politics and that's why i hope he'll be our mayor. and probably want to do it to show the band just like a brother for us his sincere love within istanbul got its beauty back and everybody
started smiling again. now this is of course of me your election yulia but its significance is so much bigger than that why. well that's because istanbul is just so hugely important it's turkey's cultural and financial center it makes up about a 3rd of the country's economy president and one was born here he started his very own political career here when he became mayor of istanbul in 1994 so for him and his party the city means wealth it means power and prestige losing it a 2nd time would be a huge a major blow to mr one's reputation as an unbeatable political force that's what analysts say so really this is not just an election about who's going to be mayor of istanbul but this is an election that is going to be followed by millions of people here in the country and abroad but the question of course is now will this time around whatever the outcome is will it be accepted will it be final.
well both candidates say they're going to accept the outcome of this election but of course a victory of the a.k.p. will probably be greeted by a lot of suspicion by the opposition already the decision for rerun has been met with a lot of criticism i don't think that missing a mama will call on people to take to the streets in case he loses but such developments are often quite difficult to control so we might see protests but we also might see a week long battle post-election battle for this important city a city of 16000000 people because no side clearly will let this city go so easily are one of the world's most fabled cities yulia han reporting thank you very much. afraid aims for a future climate rally has drawn students and adults from across europe to western
germany and organizers say is the biggest gathering of its kind yet in the country tens of thousands of climate activists police say from 17 countries are in a hunt demanding action against global warming the protest comes a day after european union leaders fail to agree on a plan to make the blocks economy carbon neutral by the year 2050 and our correspondent peter hill it was among the protesters. thousands of protesters have gathered here and i am generous westernmost city they have launched what they call the 1st international climate strike i have met mostly students coming from germany but also some from neighboring countries such as belgium france or the netherlands they demand they ask for more climate action their main priority is ending brown coal mining in germany the open pit linen mines and power plants in the region the rhineland region i want to the main sources of c o 2 emissions in
europe one of the protesters a 15 year old told me that the government's plan to keep these plants running for another 20 years which us crazy but an older gentleman watching the protests here also called them naive in that in mind for an immediate end to brown coal mining yet public support has recently written in germany for climate action environmentalist green party is leading the polls and that is a huge boost for climate activists such as those protesters here and i often. art that was the day as ever the conversation continues online you'll find this by heading to we did have a new survey get to use our hash tag they did for now thank you so much for spending this part of your day with us and if this happens to be you we can't have to stick weekends until next time. you too. cut.
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