tv Cavuto on Business FOX Business December 29, 2013 8:30am-9:01am EST
where is the dow going to end in 2014? gary? >> right where we are now. >> jonas? >> >> 18,103. >> okay. happy new year. will it be a happy new year for jobs? hello, everyone. i'm in for neil cavuto. call it the health care elephant in the office, because even with obamacare employer mandate pushed off until 2015, companies are preparing for it in the new year and they are preparing for the worst. to our panel. gary, employers are ready now to start doing things that maybe the administration thought they would put off a year from now. >> well, charles, it has been a problem. it is a problem and it's going to be a problem for the simple reason you add the words uncertainty and higher cost to the equation and businesses pull back. there are already surveys out
there with 40% of businesses cutting hours or actually turning full-time employees into part-time, and it's only going to get worse as we move forward. >> if you're a large corporation, no need putting this off. you know you have long term strategic planning, you know what's coming. to gary's point, we have already been called a part-me nation. more than likely it will get worse. >> yeah, and i think even the bigger number to look at here, aside from the fact that one of the latest business surveys showed that business owners have already decreased their work force about 31% of them have said they have already lowered their work force. the bigger thing to look at here ishe way they think that obamacare and this employer mandate is going to affect their business. 64% of business owners say that they believe that it's going to negatively impact their business, and they're not even being really specific as to why. that's part of the problem, charles. the rules can still change, the regulations are still unknown. people still don't really know how this is going to affect their business and that's going
to continue to happen, not only lowering the work force, but looking to possibly not hiring. >> the bottom line is they're delaying this but everyone knows it's inevitable and if you're a big or even small business, you take action now. >> i think this is going to be worse for small business. i think that's the problem. the economy is starting to show some signs of a decent pickup now. five years after the financial crisis, finally after all that stimulus has been pumped into the system, endless amounts of money printing, finally we are getting some decent job numbers, getting some decent growth. however, the elephant in the room as you said is obamare. here's the thing. big businesses, ge, the big companies, they have scale. they can spread the costs over a lot of people across the globe. they are multinational business -- international businesses, in many countries. it's the small businesses that get screwed. here's the thing. when you look at the drivers of the economy, employment picks up coming out of a recession or economic slowdown or weak economy, it's usually small businesses.
they are actually shooting the one business,hurting the one part of the economy that president obama needs to sustain job growth going into the 2016 midterms. >> adam, the pickup on that, small businesses could be facing a $2,000 fine per employee. that adds up very quickly for a small business. >> well, of course it does. so let's get a couple things out of the way. first of all, certainty would be better. if we knew exactlyhat was going to happen, that would obviously be better. nobody's going to argue with that. >> although we do know the employer mandate comes back at some point. hence the premise of this segment that employers are going to take action now, not wait until 2015. >> well, i think they will wait. maybe they ought to. i would agree that they ought to take action now. what they ought to doo is go ahead and make their plans, assume the mandate is coming, assume what the expenses are going to be, and behave accordingly. charlie grudgingly pointed out that the economy is getting
beer, that the job picture is getting better, so a businesses, whether they're g.e. size or whether they're a mom and pop shop, need to plan for what their future's going to look like. i want to say something quickly -- >> let adam finish. go ahead, adam. >> just real quickly, because sandra raised an interesting point. people will move to part-time where they can but employers know that a full-time employee has value this a part-time employee doesn't. they need to make a decision. >> adam grudgingly made the point here that there is some uncertaiy here. we don't actually have some uncertainty here, adam. we have the mother lode of uncertainty with this thing. this is insanely uncertain, for doctors, for employers. guess who else? the people in the white house who won't admit how uncertain this thing is. so remember when you talk about uncertainty with businesses, that's a given with any business. that's a given with any business. this is the motherf all uncertainties. >> let's go back to sandra for a
second. adam said that employees were going to part-time. they're not voluntarily going to part-time. they're being forced to go to part-time. >> i'm sorry -- >> sandra? >> i meant employers are doing that. >> right. >> that's right. and you know, we saw that start out with a bunch of the restaurant chains, that it doesn't behoove us to keep you on full-time, let's go to part-time. at the end of the day, the broad picture here is the message that this sends to current entrepreneurs, potential entrepreneurs, kids graduating from college right w, is that we have a business-unfriendly environment in this country right now, one in which this administration is saying we don't care how this is going to affect your business, this is for the better of the people of the united states. that's the wrong message to send. companies don't want to hire in that environment. >> you definitely have this whole argument over whether fairness should trump capitalism. gary, charlie talked about the economy coming back. everyone kno it is coming back gradually and it's really tepid. this obamacare thing, could this
be the thingthat sinks any potential job growth next year? >> well, i think it already has, and will. the bottom line is the ecomy would be so much better off if things -- if this was out of the way. you know, adam said certainty needs to be better. i got news for you. we are certain,and the certainty is that nobody knows what the hell is going on. and the bigger problem is we read every day -- let me finish -- there are waers for certain people, there's talk about unions getting their way. this is not the way things should be run, and when i speak to the business community all the time, they just don't know what the heck is going on with this. >> here's how you know it's a huge mess. guess who's stopping this from beinfully implemented? the guy whose name is on it. >> bingo. >> it's not like the republicans are stopping this thing. they are trying to extort other things out of the president. the president is stopping this. >> we have had a patchwork of new provisions, new changes to
the rules, almost every day the deadlines change. it's pretty problematic for the white house. we have to be concerned it's going to impact jobs. >> i'm exted about this conversation, because we're having a really good conversation here. sandra said something that was very true. as a society, we decided that having health re, as good as alth care as we can have for as many people as possible, is one of our most important goals, and we are executing on that. we're not doing a very good job. >> maybe it is an execution. they are killing the system. >> let's remember what they did here with this. this is why business is scared about ths. they have tripled, quadrupled down on the worst part of the health care system which is all this insurance and how crazy it is. they have basically taken the current system which everybody knows is horrible, and expanded. >> i don't think society has decided that everybody's premiums d everybody's deductibles are going higher.
i don't think society has decided any of that. i think you need to be careful. you know who decided all this? the white house. let's give sandra the last word on this. >> unfortunately, the american people also didn't decide they wanted a health care program implemented in the united states that basically lowered the current work force. that's what's happening. businessesre not going to be willing to hire if their costs go up exponentially. the adverse impact and adverse effects of the healt care law are not what the american people were hoping for. >> go ahead, gary k. >> this whole thing started with a big lie. we're in the midst it and there's more pain to come. it's going to get worse in '14, it will be en worse in '15. the worst is yet to come. >> taking a page from neil's book, i will put you down as a no. charlie down as a no. sandra down as a no. adam as a maybe. thanks, guys. shoppers hacked at target. the company's got to tell you. americansacked onhe obamacare website? according to a new report, the
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later this week, the southern portion of the keystone pipeline is expected to be up and running, making oil deliveries between oklahoma and texas, but still no decision from the white house on passing the part of the pipeline that would be bringing oil from the north. sandra, you say do that and we would really see gas prices here head south. >> yeah. this would merely be icing on the cake if we were to see the rest of this keystone pipeline unleashed. we are looking at a very barren situation for gas prices. gasoline prices are down significantly. if you can imagine even more refining capacity with the keystone pipeline delivering oil to the key refineries, you're talking about substantially lower energy prices. we're seeing more oil production in the united states than we've seen in over two decades. if we can continue on this path, we could say good-bye to importing foreign oil and it would really make a much more energy independent country.
>> gary k., better safety? just all of the above, you can check every box up there, we all appreciate it, but still, nothing from d.c. on this. >> well, look, every drop counts. the good news is we'ren a bear market for prices, and that's where you should start attacking. got to remember, prices are about supply and demandut it's also about traders and if traders recognize that something's being done and more supply's coming on, they're going to sell and sell and sell more, and you'll see prices tank even more, and that's another big boon for the consumer. would love to see it. >> i gues the administration's got a whole lot of things they're dealinwith, you know. take your pick of all the different controversies out there. but once you start pushing oil through this pipeline, showing that it works, it's environmentally safe, where does the argument go from there? >> i'm of two minds. half of me says if they can produce more oil, it's good for -- inflation comes down, they can keep printing money forever and that will be good for the stock market. the other half of me -- i was just kidding.
the other half of me lien, there needs to be a conservation effort here. i don't think that, you know, the price of gasoline is way off the charts. i don't think we're suffering because of where oil is trading now. i don't think we need the supply right now. >> you have a car? >> yes. >> you do? you drive it? >> i have two cars. >> gasoline prices are much higher than they were four or five years ago. >> okay. okay. there is something called inflation that factors into that. you're rit, it's higher. but i'm also saying that, you know, maybe now is not the time to be doing it. >> you know, there is never enough supply, by the way. >> great point, gary k. >> of course. except for when the middle east is boycotting you. >> here's the thing, though. in the past, adam, you have actually said that you were mildly in support of keystone. where are you now? by the way, oil prices shot back to $100 this week. we know how quickly they can g back up. >> well, i'm in the same exact place. i'm smiling because i hate to be, you know, relentlessly optimistic on this program.
but the price of oil in the medium term is obviously coming down. we obviously are becoming energy self-efficient in the united states because of the shale oil boom in the united states,nd so the large point here -- >> here's the thing, though. i don't get this. is there a level and downside we should be comfortable with? why not take it as low as possible? why not take advantage of all of or resources? >> charles, if you want to take oil as low as possible, trust me, that will hurt the economy. if you see oil go down to $30 or $20 a barrel, nobody will be happy with that. >> how would that hurt the economy? >> charlie, explain to him how it would hurt the economy. >> well, it drives down the prices of lots of goods and services. listen, there is an issue th this. by the way, do we need -- >> no one could make a profit in that scenario. >> do we need more oil? there needs to be -- >> hold on. hold on.
>> hold on one second. >> by the way, it's a finite supply. >> but we haven't hit peak oil yet. sandra, it's on you. >> let's hope we never do. >> first of all, the decisions we make on oil and gasoline in this country shouldn't be based on our current situation, unfortunately, charlie, we need to look out into the future. >> that's when it will be depleted. >> hold on. i completely disagree the price of oil is coming down. we're still looking at $100 a barrel despite the fact that oil production in the united states is at a 20-year high. why is that? because we've got populations around the globe surging and every day they are buying more cars, pumping those cars filled with gasoline, and that's taking more oil. >> we know that. >> we need to start looking into the future and preparing now with this pipeline. >> it's there. the question is why do we need it now. you ll me it will take ten yes to get this thing up and going when we need it? when we actually need it? by the way, with shale s, we might not need this as much. i'll tell you, it's always good to plan for the future.
i'm worried about -- >> this is what i'm saying. think of it logically. why do we need it all now? >> sandra? >> what better situation -- what better situation can we put the united states in than to be energy independent and to the point where we can be exporters of oil rather than impoers? >> why now? >> why do we need it now? why do we need it now? >> i don't even know why there's a debate. we have been deting for the last 30 years about how the middle east is controlling things, how about us controlling things. >> gary, they're not controlling things right now. you just said they're not controlling things. >> thank you. >> we just proved that we're producing more oil now, we have a shale gas revolution. they are not controlling things. >> the are not in control. >> we are still importing foreign oil. >> let's do more and more. >> a lot of people would say that we shouldt import any oil if we have our own. >> but we will. >> hey, pu down that blet.
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gary kay, this is how it all begins. >> well, get ready for a commission that creates a commission to study the commission based on whether tablets are good or not for your kid. go away and have a nice life and let the parents decide. the fact of the matter is some of these tablets are very kid friendly. let them have fun and get educated. >> you are a brand-new mother, congratulations. are you ready for the nanny to show you how it is done? >> that's the last thing i want. i want the government to tell me what i can and can't put in front of the child. i think it is disgusting that fisher-price has a seat that will hold the ipad in front of the infant's face. they are sponges. they need to feel and touch things and stick them in their mouth. the government will try to get involved and make a mess of the situation, but i hate the tablet thing being in the hands of a toddler or
younger. it is bad. >> charlie, you probably grew up and you have boxing gloves when you grew up. >> rock em, sock em robots. >> what do you think of this one? >> there is an impulse among conservatives to do and say stupid things. it is the same impulse that forced them to shutdown the government. >> why, because they don't want the government to tell them what to do? >> they are not saying outlaw tablets. >> you are a reporter. connect the dots. you know what is coming next. you know what is coming next. you know where this goes. >> i hope i break that story when it it comes, but it is never going to come. th is what is crazy about conservatives, it is the same impulse. they don't like obamacare, so guess what, they shutdown the government. they don't like the fact the government is pining about something. >> they don't like the new led light bulbs. adam, you also happen to be a great reporter and you can
connect the dots and see where people are afraid that ultimately the governmentals them how to raise their kids. >> i am also a parent and my wife and i struggle with trying to get our daughter to look away of -- to have less screen time. it is a battle every single day. i completely agree with charlie. there are n dots to connect. sometimes the government has a role in using its position to say look at this research, consider this. by the way, sometimes it gets really important like the surgeon general's warning on cigarette smoking. when the government knows certain things there is a responsibility -- >> or michelle owe bay you ma. >> give her credit for pointing out obesity. >> leave it there. sandra, yo were fantastic. and charlie you were okay too. on the verge of their best performance in 16 years. when the ball drops the party continues. our gang celebrating new winnerfor the new year. >>
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so was this show. the calls for freedom continues with the place for business. you know where it is. stay tuned, fox. ringing in the new year with more executive orders. president obama's new white house counselor wrote the book on howo use them to bypass congress and push through pro tbres sigh policies on his own. this is what he said very bluptly in 2010, the ability of president obama to accomplish important changing through these powers shold not be underestimated. now some hearsay that means taxpayers better hold on to their wallets in 2014. hi, welcome to forbes on fox. let's go in focus with steve forbes. sabrina schaefer, mark tagie and john