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tv   Countdown to the Closing Bell  FOX Business  December 30, 2013 3:00pm-4:01pm EST

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down more than 1%. we're going to have a lot more on twitter, whether now might be the right time to buy the stock or if maybe it's time to sell it if you own it. i'm going to be joined by an all-star tech panel coming up on the show today. and ford is among the u.s. automakers gaining from a surge in demand for american cars abroad. announcing sales of 15% i through november of this year, that is enough to make it north america's top-selling brand. take a look at ford. right now as you can see on your screen, the stock is up by three cents, but it's been a really strong year, as you can see on your screen, for ford. so what is driving stocks today after they hit record highs last week? for the 51st time, by the way. are we due for some type of pullback? let's talk about it. let's get to the floor show, traders at the new york stock exchange, the cme group and the nymex. first to ben willis at the new york stock exchange. i always hate to bring in this up, we have got, ben, the dow's
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up 25% for the year. it makes sense to be concerned about a little bit of a pullback in 2014. you worried? >> cheryl, i'm glad you brought back -- brought up a pullback because, quite frankly, i've been looking for one for go, three months -- two, three months. we had a great run on the dow and the s&p, up over 25%, and virtually no corrections. the best correction we had in the s&p was about a 4.5% correction a few months ago. a real correction's about 10%. i can tell you right now most of the indicators we look at are not telling us we're looking at a correction anytime soon in january, but we're seeing heavy call buying activity and the vixx in the february and march call she questions which tells us professional traders are looking for something to happen in this market later on in the first quarter of the year, if you will. the money flows will drive this market higher in january and then look for that correction somewhere else later on.
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cheryl: ben, chris is coming up later in the show, and he says we're going to get a correction because all this talk about it is going to cause one. i want to go to the cme, and that's kind of on your radar as well. the s&p has performed like it was in a bubble, but you say not so fast. why? what's the difference this time around? >> well, again, when we talk about a bubble, most of us are referring to 1995 to 2000 where the s&p basically tripled in five years. what we've seen since the lows in 2009 is the s&p basically tripling in three and a half years, i'm sorry, four and a half years. and you're not necessarily hearing that bubble world, and the reason is the 1500 level was ours in 2000, and we thought we deserved it. we thought we wanted it back. so most market participants look at this as new highs from 2000. so if you do something that my friend mike arkansas that would calls candlestick math, it essentially is 500 to 1800 in about 18 years. that's what's happened to the s&p now with some volatility in
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between. and i think what ben says is very important because right now the insurance on the vixx is keep. so that's going to -- cheap. so that's going to keep buyers in the market because that insurance is cheap. given that the economy is still fair to midling, let's say, there's room for the equities to continue this march upward in 2014 because we're really not that much higher from the 2000 highs. cheryl: and, again, i do have a guest with coming on that says something different. you'll have to watch that interview. >> i will watch it. cheryl: you know what, jeffrey? you're also watching the dow as well at the nymex. the dow is on your mind, why? >> always is. let's face it, there's overall sentiment that comes into play here. if the stock market is looking strong, the economy is supposedly strong and with that comes more consumption and higher prices for the oil, simple as that. i don't always feel that the two have to be in lockstep, and certainly there is a disconnect on numerous occasions, but it's something you can't argue about
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overall trader sentiment that comes into play. and when the bulls are ranging, the bulls are ranging. -- raging, it's as simple as that. but again, i'm not a raging bull on the stock market or oil at this point, i think they both have to settle back. i think crude oil has about $3 correction very soon here. i'm not going to say tomorrow, but i think early in the year we're going to see this market trade back down to the mid 90s before it can catch its breath, maybe take a look and make that serious move up if it gets some help with the weather. cheryl: jeff, you talked about that with oil and also nat gas. we're looking at some wicked weather along the northeast, and if you look at the farmer's almanac, this could be one of the worst winters in recent memory. how do you feel about nat gas then? >> i spoke on your program a few weeks ago, and i said we have a good shot if there's some serious weather in the midwest by the end of january, we could actually be flirting with $5 which people look at me that i'm
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being a little bit overzealous about it, but the truth is natural gas -- because with i know where we're trading not that long ago -- definitely has been beaten down and has a lot of ways to go on the upside. $5 is definitely reason reach. cheryl: bob, i wanted to ask you about what's going with regards to volume, because we're in this really low volume environment right now and, ben, actually, you can answer the same question. bob, this environment, many say it's a good thing that we're not seeing high volatility in these very light trading days going into the new year. do you agree with that, or does that spook you, bob, just a little bit? >> no. it actually doesn't spook me at all. i've always looked at the last three weeks of the year, rather, as something to almost ignore for your planning. it's the type of movement that traders don't necessarily participate in, so i haven't taken much notice of it either way. i think january's going to do what january's going to do based on the jobs number, nothing else. cheryl: all right, gentlemen, thank you very much. early happy new year to all of
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you, appreciate you being here. >> thank you, happy new year. cheryl: carl icahn is turning up the heat on apple. he's demanding that the tech giant increase its stock buybacks and dividends,,but apple is saying, no. liz macdonald joins us now with the bottom line on this story. he is so known for this but, lizzie, doesn't mr. icahn have a point, that they've got a lot of cash and that they are not a bank, they're a tech company? >> good to be with you, cheryl. that's exactly what carl icahn said back in october. he threatened a proxy fight back then. he's saying shareholders don't want to be investing in apple bank. what he's saying is raise the dividend and stock buyback to $150 billion from $100 billion that apple already has underway in terms of the repatriation program. here's what apple is saying, though, in a new sec filing u it is putting it on the proxy to shareholders, recommending they vote no against carl icahn's proposal. essentially saying, listen, we already have a plan that will increase shareholder value about
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creating new markets via new products. we've got innovative, bold strategies in place. we need the resources to have unprecedented investment. we need that flexibility. we are about the long-term interests of the business. stock buybacksrically, cheryl, are short-term goose, higher for stock values. and here's the deal, this is a nonbinding shareholder advisory thing that carl icahn is proposing, and also on the part of apple. in other words, even if the shareholders agree with carl icahn's bid or idea, they could just say, you know, the board, apple board could just say, you know what? it's nonbinding, we're just going to set it aside. and i'll tell you, the other thing we're getting feedback from wall street on is as follows, you know, that $149 billion cash on the balance sheets, cheryl, only a quaater is parked here in the united states. apple would have to repatriate back in the united states, pay higher taxes, and if they do
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debt financing they'd have to pay, of course, the bond yields on that. but analysts are saying that apple needs a cash horde to improve customer service, to expand in the way of factories and for growth in china among other things. sending it back to the you. cheryl: well, i would like to see them make a plasma television as well. and the watch, where's the watch? liz macdonald, thank you very much. >> sure. cheryl: let's get to lauren simonetti on the floor of the new york stock exchange. she's got some of today's most notable movers. mickey mouse, car tires, where do you want to start. >> >> let's start with disney, cheryl, because it's a momentum stock today. it did get an upgrade to buy at guggenheim, several reasons, frozen, the movie, doing really well at the box office, in fact, best since the lion king back in 1994. disney leading the dow today, up 2.2%, also leading the broader
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market, leading the s&p 500. and most of the day's gain on the dow is because of a positive contribution from disney. another stock that we're talking about is cooper tire and rubber. you know, tomorrow a deal with india's apollo tire was supposed to be completed. financing for that deal dried up, so it's no longer going to happen. but cooper tire having a nice reaction as a result. back to you. cheryl: all right, lauren, thank you very much. we'll see you in just a little bit. >> all right. cheryl: closing bell ringing 51 minutes from now, and car buyers are rushing to auto dealerships, but how to you, the investor, profit from this buying frenzy? we're going to bring you your investing road map just as soon as we return. and remember french actor gerard depar due's dramatic decision to become a tax exile in russia? well, now france's socialist government is imposing a tax on millionaires. we're going to tell you all about it. that's coming up in just a few
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cheryl: two suicide attacks in russia he left 31 people dead raising new
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concerns about security at the sochi winter olympics, just six weeks away. fox news' amy kellogg this has e latest from london. any clues as to who might be responsible for these attacks? >> reporter: well, cheryl, nothing definitive, but an extreme islamist group over the summer called on its followers to take their attacks out of the north caucuses and into the very heart of russia in order to disrupt to to olympic games whih this group calls, quote, the satanic dancing on the bones of our ancestors. now, this group didn't claim responsibility for the two back-to-back bomb blasts in volgograd, but certainly fingers of suspicion are pointing this their direction. suicide becomings are their hallmark, and back in the autumn one of their female bombers hit volgograd as well. today's attack destroyed a crowded bus, killing 14 people. yesterday's blast was captured on cc-26 and killed 17 people at
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volgograd's main train station. the call to arms was issued other the summer, the group wants to establish an islamic state in the southern part of russia and to bring president putin to his knees. russia's islamist movement has its roots in separatist movements which were crushed in the '90s and then in its desperation morphed into this extreme islamist movement across the southern caucuses -- or the northern caucuses including dagestan. now, normally, again, this group hits in the north caucuses. hitting a city like volgograd is significant, it sets off a whole different wave of fear and panic among russians who are no stranger to terrorist attacks over the years. the fear is with such a veritable ring of steel around coach cci where to olympics are going to be taking place, terrorists will possibly hit
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other cities. the u.s. today has called for greater cooperation with russia around the olympic security cooperation and cooperation in intelligence and terrorist-related matters has, in fact, been stepped up between the two countries since the boston marathon bombings last year. the two with bombers, of course, had tear ethnic origins in the caucuses region, both being ethnic chechnyans and having spent some time in dagestan. cheryl? cheryl: amy kellogg, thank you very much. well, focusing back here on the united states now, tomorrow could be the best day of the year to buy a new car as dealers try to get rid of the 2013 inventory. so what autotrends can we expect -- auto trends can we expect in 204, and what will it mean for the u.s. consumer and investor? joining me now in a fox business exclusive is brian levy, iq analyst, and he is there. you look at the buildup in the numbers in car exports, what is
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behind the huge jump in u.s. exports for this country for ford, for gm, for chrysler? >> one of the trends we've seen in the last few years is an increased localization of production that automakers will manufacture the product in the regions they want to sell them, and one of the regions that's benefited is the u.s. now in terms of manufacturing, they're now able to export some of these vehicles. cheryl: well, is there a specific trend that you're predicting for 2014? i mean, certainly for the u.s. auto manufacturers, to your point, you know, production has been much more streamlines with robotics, and they've also add a lot of unit concessions and now, frankly, people seem to like american cars more and more, especially in places like china. dig more deep for me, though, if you don't mind. talk about what kind of sales numbers you're expecting for 2014. >> sure. for 2014 i'm looking for about a 3% increase to 16.1 million new
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light vehicle sales, that compares to the 15.6 million vehicles that we expect were sold in the year. and that would be a continuation of their upward trend from the lows of 2009. and it's just a slowing but still growing trend. cheryl: do you think that it's going to be a different story in 2014 for dealers here in the u.s.? and let's go back to the u.s. customer for just a moment because we are going to see interest rates begin to tick up. there may be a mad rush of car buying tomorrow, but next year the consumer might still feel a little nervous about making a big ticket purchase like a car. are you concerned about interest rates? >> not really concerned about interest rates. even a modest increase won't make a big deal. if it's an extra $15 a month to, i don't think that's going to deter people who need or want to buy a car. i think what's bringing customers into the dealership is the average age is now over 11 years old, and since that 11 years ago the technology and the vehicles have changed, there's more of the electronics and communications as well as better
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styling and fuel efficiency much better now. so i think all those factors will help bring consumers into the dealership combined with more jobs. cheryl: i'm glad you brought up, i guess it's the digital dashboard wave. cars now are their own computers, if you will. that technology from apple and google that really want to make the cars interactive as possible with the driver safety concerns aside, do you think that that trend is going to be a positive for the dealers, for the car manufacturers, or is it better for somebody like an apple or google because the dealerships are paying the -- the automaker's actually paying for that markup from the company? >> well, i think everyone can benefit, all the industry participants from each role. if google or apple produces something that can help sell the cars, not only does google and apple benefit, but the automaker who's selling the vehicle and the dealership that's also selling the vehicle. so it's an opportunity for everyone if it can help grow the market. cheryl: all right. real quick, i do want to ask you
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about margin pressure just overall in general for the main three players here in the united states and also for volkswagens. >> well, for the largest american brands, i don't follow volkswagen, so i'll limit it to ford, general motors and toyota, there's going to be more competition. now that the growth rate of the market is slowing, they're going to have to focus on stealing share from other participants, not just benefiting from a rising tide. so i think there could be some margin pressure in 2014. cheryl: all right. a lot to look out for, especially those numbers tomorrow. it's going to be fascinating. brian levy, s&p capital senior iq analyst. we have had 40 minutes to go. this is it, this is the fun part, everyone. you wallet to stay tuned, because should investors be concerned about rising rates, is there going to be an imact on the economy from rising -- impact overall? we're going to talk to one of the top income strategists on how you should play the bond
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market. don't be afraid of the bond market. it's not so scary. and twitter's little bird looks like it's getting its wigs clipped -- wings clipped. is now the time to jump in, we're going to game it all for you when we come right back. ♪ ♪ and she might have if notor kari, the identity thief who stole jill's social security number to on credit car, destying jill's credit and her dream of retirement. every year, millions of americans just like you learn that a little personal information in the wrong hands
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step in and make a difference because 9 out of 10 wildfires can be prevented. only you can prevent wildfires. ♪ ♪ cheryl: so investors found yield in the bond market in 2013 with the u.s. ten-year rising above 3%. so how should investors position themselves in 2014 as they consider when the fed will finish the now that we know they're beginning it. joining us now in a fox business exclusive is wells fargo advisers chief income strategist. what a year for the bond market versus stock. it's been with tough to be a bond investor in 2013. let's move ahead to 2014. how are you feeling about next year? do you think you're going to get some love back from investors? >> you know, 2013 a very tough year, but still most investors, they're well diversified, only down a percent or two, so, you know, you don't see the
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volatility you see on the equities side. next year looks to be a little bit better. i think we'll push total returns on the positive side because, of course, yields are higher and you get a little bit more of your return from the income or coupon side of things. but we're not going to get back to the, you know, 2009, 2011, 2012 period where you were getting high single digit, even double digit returns -- cheryl: i was going to ask you, because we were showing our viewers the ten-year, and that has been the interesting story over the last trading sessions, even today roughly 3% above the yield. if we're not under any pressure to make any moves before the end of the year for tax purposes, where do can you see the ten-year going? is that your favorite spot, do you think, for '14? >> well, no, i'd stay a little bit shorter than that. i still think for 2014 interest rates as the fed continues to scale out of those purchases, i think the ten-year's going to
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gravitate a little higher, you know? 3.5% by year end and, of course, the market's going to start looking forward to when the fed's going to start raising short-term interest rates, and, you know, if you get a little too long, i don't think you quite get your bang for your buck. i'd move in the curve a little bit but not too short. of course, short-term interest rates continue to be almost nothing, maybe something in the five, six, seven-year area. cheryl: yeah, 1.7, 2.4 is the yield on that. let's talk about the fed. obviously, that's the biggest story with regards to interest rates, but how are you gauging the fed, and how are you kind of playing the fed over the next six months? we don't know the timeline, we just know that the timeline has begun. the next question is whether they finish tapering. >> yeah. i think the fed actually gave us a pretty clear timeline in their last meeting, and i think they're going to as long as the data continues to show good
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gains on the employment side, i think we'll continue to see at each meeting them scale back purchases by ten billion. so with eight meetings total next year, they should just about wrap up by year end if everything goes according to plan. if there is some kind of negative event in the u.s. economy and things slow down, they could pause a meeting or two, but i think game plan here is kind of steady as she goes and they'll be out of the bond purchase game at least adding to their balance sheet by late next year. cheryl: what do you want to avoid in 2014, brian? >> you know, we're pretty each. the one thing i would caution investors, especially retail investors hooking for yield, a -- looking for yield, a lot of those investors over the last year or two have add add lot of low investment load exposure. and to the extent that clients have overall located there, i
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think that's an area where if we do have some turbulence next year, could see some pretty negative performance from time to time. so we just like to see clients get back to even weight positions if they have really added -- cheryl: brian, can you break that down into percentages? if rhyme putting you on the spot, i'm sorry. can you put it in percentages for our viewers? you're right about the high yield allocations, that has been very popular this year. >> yeah. you know, in most portfolios high yield would probably account for 5-10% of your overall portfolio. once you start getting above that, i think you're starting to take on some excess risk, especially when you consider how those allocations are somewhat more correlated to your equity allocations. so you don't get that negative correlation that you would traditionally look for in your fixed income allocations. cheryl: interesting is a fair word, it's been interesting for bond investors, but we'll see
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what 2014 brings. i think the tide's going to change. >> hopefully so. we'll see. cheryl: happy new year, brian. we've got 31 minutes to go. back to the stock markets, the bell ice going to be ringing in 41 minutes, 30 minutes now. twitter dropping for a second consecutive day, erasing billions from its market cap. that could come back. is the bluebird coming back to earth? we're going to talk to technology experts on what we can expect for twitter next year. stock actually is coming back. and crazy for crocs. who doesn't can lo crocs? -- love crocses? a change in leadership and a cash infusion, and shareholders seem to like the fit. a lot happening with crocs today. ♪ ♪
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♪ ♪ cheryl: the power mover of the hour, it's crocs. you know, the company behind those colorful clogs, they're actually really comfortable, the stock is up more than 20%, more than 21% now. crocs said that the private equity giant blackstone is making a $200 million investment that will give the firm a 13% stake in crocs. the shoe maker also said the chief executive will retire in the month of april, that will give up his seat on the board. crocs' fourth quarter revenue will be at the low end of the previously-announced range, between 220 million and 225 million but definitely, crocs, big stock to watch today. well, there is no end to the sump in social media -- slump in social media stocks that began
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last fritted. lauren simonetti, we were watching twitter last week, and i have to say it's coming back a little bit. it's looking a little bit better. >> reporter: yeah. well, we saw the social stocks like facebook and apple and twitter all give up substantial gains on friday. they're down again today. we're going to show you a couple. linkedin down .7%. if you move over here to pandora, that's down almost 4%. groupon down more than 2%, facebook down, google down, angie's list, down, zynga, down. so we are seeing tech and social certainly sell off for the second day, cheryl. cheryl: all right, lauren, thank you very much. we'll see you in just a little bit. 25 minutes to go. twitter has been up, down, all around over the last few trading sessions. twitter's roller coaster ride began with the runup that ended last thursday. it hit 74.73, then the bird fell from the sky on friday following an analyst downgrade.
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it was a brutal downgrade. the stock has continued its downward spiral today. it fell another -- it's actually down almost 4% right now, 61.46. if you can see, this is a stock that has been flying up and down, but for our panel today here's the question, can twitter handle this rise, this runup that it's had, or do you think that twitter is maybe a sell? let's bring in our tech reporter with "the wall street journal" and daryl jones. gentlemen, welcome to both of you. actually with, i want to start with you, chris, because if you look at -- excuse me, i'm going to start with you on this one because if you look at the valuation of twitter, and we had a really great discussion about this last week, it's been somewhat of a question. mcsquarely came out and said the -- mcquery said it was going too far, investors jumped. what is the nervousness in regards to twitter? there yeah. i think it reflects this fundamental thing which is twitter, we're operating in this kind of information-free zone
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about twitter. it's a new stock, and it's sort of a new company and a new, it's a new kind of company, a new kind of service. so i think we don't really know how advertisers are going to react to their ad products, we don't really know about user growth, these are all big questions hanging over the the ipo turned out extremely successful, but then they made this announcement about the targeted program that hasn't rolled out, but that seemed to spark a lot of the interest at the start of this runup. then i think last week we saw we don't really know much about that, and people got nervous. basically, i think, we just don't know much about the company and how it's going to fare over the next few years. cheryl: daryl, is this targeted advertising platform that twitter's got, at this point they've got promotional tweets going through, and users don't seem to mind that, but when they start talking about a land they have yet to inveil and they're still not -- unveil and they're still not making money, again,
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that one downgrade last week was quite a spark for the selloff on the stock. don't you think investors have a reason to be a little bit shy? >> i think absolutely. there's a real vacuum of information about twitter. on the one hand, you have a company with a market cap of over 40 million, trading over 30 times 201 revenues -- 2013 revenues, so it's richly valued. you have a complete lack of information out there. then you also have a business model that, to your point, is very much in question. they can't monetize international, their user growth is slowing sequentially, and there are real questions about how much runway there is for growth in the u.s. what happens in a situation like this and at the same time there's a small float, investors get really nervous. you know, you saw a downgrade from macquarie who normally doesn't move stocks, moved the stock nearly 15%. that speaks to your point. cheryl: that was what was so fascinating last week. and a reporter at the new york stock exchange was just showing us the pressure on a lot of the
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big social media names. this is still a space that investors have good reason to be afraid of. daryl just mentioned it. if you look at the slowing subscriber growth for twitter and, again, they're not making money yet. i mean, this is where the founders really have to come in and say here is our plan, and they have yet to give wall street that plan. do you agree or disagree with that? >> i disagree they have yet to give wall street their plan. i think we know their plan, we just don't know how effective it'll be. their plan is to slowly administer advertising to their stream and make those ads work across different platforms. so their retargeted product they recently unveiled f you're surfing on a hotel site on the web on your desktop, later on you'll get an ad on your phone from your twitter stream. they say that system has been really effective in terms of roi. if they roll that out to many
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companies, that could be a big thing, but we just don't know yet. i think we know what they want to do, we just don't know whether it'll work. cheryl: that growth, that advertising target that you're talking about, that's the older generation. those are the ones that are going to have money to spend on hotels or the discretionary consumer. so maybe if they're using -- if they're losing use, do you think that they actually have room to grow in the older demographic that, again, has money that advertisers are going to want to go after of? >> i think they have room to grow. i definitely think there's growth here, but the question is how much. and especially when, you know, at some point facebook, their largest competitor, much larger than the -- than twitter is going to start rolling out more innovative ads. all facebook has done so far is turn on ads on its mobile platform, but once its ads become more innovative in the way twitter's are, that may present real competition, and i wonder if advertisers will wonder if twitter's worth it compared to facebook at that
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point. cheryl: also, daryl -- go ahead. >> advertisers don't really know what the value of twitter is yet. they just really started selling ads about three years ago, and it's a really interesting point. if facebook gets a lot more competitive with twitter, you already have all these business model issues, but if facebook goes aggressively at twitter, that's another real headwind. cheryl: i remember, daryl, they had a different road show that facebook did. i mean, it was night and day. obviously, twitter learned something from what mark zuckerberg did. he ran around in a hoodie in new york city, and people were very turned off. at the same time, now they're under intense competition from facebook and, frankly, mark zuckerberg's on the warpath. he's got something to prove not just professionally, but personally as well. this is his baby. do you think they need to be nervous here? >> i think so. facebook has a huge war chest. you know, their ipo budget all that successful, but the stock's performed really well since then, and they raised a lot of money so they can buy products,
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advertising products, they can probably buy subscribers, and i think that's another big threat to twitter. cheryl: farhad, is there something happening in the social media space we don't know about yet? >> i think snapchat is the big thing. what's interesting about snapchat is this app that, you know, deletes your photos, it also doesn't make any money, but facebook tried to buy it last year or this year. what's interesting about it is it's one of the first apps we've seen from the tech industryythat actually deletes data. i think there's, you know, we don't know if it'll make money yet, but it's interesting we're starting to see a concern for privacy and a concern about, you know, sharing all the stuff that is the way that twitter and facebook want to make -- cheryl: you're sending pictures maybe you shouldn't be sending, i mean -- but anyway, the kids are all doing it. guys, thank you very much. great discussion. thank you. >> thanks. cheryl: closing bell ringing in 17 minutes, it has been a tan tsaic year for stocks -- a fantastic year for stocks. are markets ready for a correction next year, and if so,
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how much? we're going to talk with a money manager who has specific stock picks ahead for you. and france known for its famous architecture, art, culture, now you can add astronomical tax toss that list. that's coming up next. we're going to tell you about the government's latest effort to soak the rich. ♪ ♪ [ female announcer ] what if the next big thing, isn't a thing at all? it's lots of things. all waking up. connec to the global phenomenon we call e internet of everything. ♪ it's going be amazing.
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and exciting. and maybe, most remarkably, not that far away. we're going to wake the world up. and watch, with eyes wide, as it gets to work. cisco. tomorrow starts here.
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cheryl: if you are worried about higher taxes in the u.s., spare a thought for people in france who earn more than a million euros, that's about $1.4 million. france's socialist president has won the support of the country's
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constitutional council to introduce a controversial 75% marginal tax on salaries above one million your rovers -- euros. but the council refused to allow the tax to be imposed on individuals. it will be paid by their companies, their employers instead. this ruling has sent shock waves through france's business community. this affects 470 companies and about a dozen soccer clubs. business leaders say it will drive high performers out of the country. french actor gerard depardieu who's famous for his role in the 1990 movie green card, he has left france. he was a very high profile departure, but there have been a lot more since this all started in france. well, back here at home, 2013 has been a record-breaking year for the markets, but we have one money manager who warns don't get too caught up in the hype. he believes a 10-12% correction is headed our way.
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so how should investors play 2014? let's bring in chris, that's a pretty big, that's a pretty big prediction you're putting out there. what's going on? >> well, cheryl, who's left to buy? when you think about it, i mean, we've had the lagging hedge funds come in, we've had the portfolio managers that have performance anxiety come in, people who have been losing money safely suddenly decide, oh, boy, i want some of that data, and all of a sudden we've got everybody's thinking alike. nobody's left to buy. you listen to all the sunday shows, fox and everywhere else, and people say, boy, things are great with the economy, and we're moving along and, boy, when -- cheryl: can i, my network, i'm sorry? i mean, no, we have we've had a lot of people be bearish, but thames, don't you think it's a different environment than we had back in '93 and 2000 when the cab drivers were saying i've got to buy shares of that company company i can't even pronounce? don't you think we've had a cautious runup in the last five
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years, and especially in 2013? it would have been nice to see the returns we've had two years ago, the market could have supported it, and we didn't get it. we got it now. >> no question. people can't believe it's continuing to go up. but when you look at a lot of the statistical signs for it, value waist sounds really extended, but they're pretty high. when you look at what's happening to margins, you see companies that we'll see how they report. that's why i think after reporting season here we could very well see there's nobody left to buy. i think everybody seems to be bullish at this point. every single editorial you read or whether it's barron's or "the wall street journal," we could have a pretty good year: all i'm saying is that we're due to, you know, take the people that have been late to the party out. cheryl: can is kind of in your mind, correct me if i'm wrong, you kind of believe at some point there's going to be some small event in the market and we're going to talk ourselves into this correction, again,
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because of that underlying fear many people have because of what they've been through in the last fife years -- five years. is that an ache's accessment? -- assessment? >> absolutely, you couldn't say it better. some political risk, i don't know whether it's china or saber rattling in the middle east, but something is going to set people off whether it's affordable health care being, you know, even more of a drain on the economy than people anticipate, there'll be some event that makes people say, gee whiz, maybe we better head to the sidelines, particularly stocks that are up 5-10%, they'll say, well, let's ring the register. cheryl: you look for companies that have good revenue growth, i'm assuming you like the strong dividend payers, but a lot of those stocks have already been bought up. what is the criteria for you now going into 201 for someone who's sitting in their office thinking maybe i'd like to pick up some stocks in the new year? what would you tell that person? >> i definitely hi there's still some opportunities. i think you need to look at the
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laggards, and i would say not fallen angels, but tarnished angels, companies that have maybe missed a quarter of enearnings hertz, a john deere where, you know, they haven't shown very much this year, and their brethren, whether it's parker hannifin or, you know, pick similar in the machinery and industrial area have done well, and you can say, wow, we can look at somebody because they're going to rationalize their businesses, and now's the time to -- cheryl: it's up 59% year to date. and, again, back to your point that people are a little bit nervous about the runup that we've had, they would say hertz is too expensive right now. it's going to pull back. >> right. it has real top-line growth. look at the airline industry, look at the travel industry, look at asia and you'll see. this is not just car rentals, this is everything from machinery and equipment rentals across the world, and here's an opportunity, they had a miss or sort of a weak guidance, and the stock fell down to about 21, 22,
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and that's what you need to do. you saw that in other companies like deere. cheryl: i have to compliment you, freeport mcmore rap, u.s. steel, both are actually higher, free port mcmoran, i'm cues your if you still like those names. >> i still like those name, and i think the whole material sector which has been the biggest laggard this year is due. and they're cheap, unloved, unwanted and underowned. so it's a good time to look at those. cheryl: all right, chris, thank you very much. can't wait to talk to you next year. >> happy new year, cheryl. cheryl: you too. closing bell going to ring, we've got six minutes to go, and on "after the bell" we're going to be kicking off our 2014 outlook series with all of the trends you need to know in the new year. today we're tackling tech. we're going tell you whether you'll be wearing google glass before the year's out, ask yourself that. david's already here, he's like
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stalking me. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] what if a small company
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became big business overnight? ♪ like, really big... then expanded? ♪ or their new product tanked? ♪ or not? what if they embrace new chnology instead? ♪ imagine a company's future with the future of trading. company profile. a research tool on thinkorswim.
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from td ameritrade. cheryl: as we approach 4:00 p.m. eastern time. two minutes to go, second to last trading day of 2013. here are names we're watching for you. disney, cisco, intel, coca-cola. david asman joining me on set. david: i'm not a stalker. cheryl: look at yearened performance, it has been a great year for the markets. david: oh, incredible. the question whether we can sustain. in fact we have an invest it another 14% to go in 2014. cheryl: the bears are coming out. david: let's go to lauren simonetti to see where we're coming out. you have to start with crocs today, lauren.
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>> big winner, up more than 20%. folks over at stern ag, upgrading. stock saying this investment from blackstone really going to be a positive catalyst for the stock going forward. cheryl: lauren, shares of lions gate seeing a pop following an upgrade. >> absolutely. lions gate got a 3% pop. "barron's" research reiterating guidance and giving it a 41-dollar price target. catching fire, the movie, really solid for lions gate. david: there is no stopping "the hunger games." they're filming now. they're down 5% now, right? >> down 5%. the volume is heavy. thursday, friday and today, the stock has been all over the map. volume has been very, very in twitter shares. cheryl: entertainment name, lauren, disney, hitting all-time
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high today. [closing bell ringing] entertainment or parks? >> all-time high for disney. number one on the dow and s&p 500 today. cheryl: bells ringing on wall street. let's look how stocks finishing out. the dow is finishing to the upside. we were up 25 points as we move into the close. nasdaq as well. russell 2000 finishing slightly into the red. david, a nice even day for the markets. david: even day. i think they're waiting for the new year to try to figure out where they put their heavy money. look at front page headlines now. new i have had that the housing market is picking up. national association of realtors saying contracts to buy previously-owned homes did rise slightly in november. cheryl: home prices back in record territory in some american cities. seven years after the housing crash but a "wall street journal" analysis find recovery pretty uneven right now. david:


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