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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  December 12, 2014 6:00pm-7:01pm EST

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american dream is achievable this is why we continue to bring you the best advice to get your financial house in order because consumers are our business. that is "the willis report". have a great night. >> breaking news we took the heavy hit today. your watching making money the worst week in three years down 315 points today as it continues to fall with crude-oil and nicole petallides is on the floor of the new york stock exchange. >> selling upon selling they broke down those low levels the dow was down 315 points the first week in three years. and led lower by energy.
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we saw a lot of energy names hitting lows including apache '04 marathon or conical phillips but on the dow jones industrial average there were plenty of laggards like ibm one trader noted i am keeps breaking the lowe's. is you cannot catch a falling knife that is there are is some bright spots go. lululemon it was a tough week on wall street. charles: all of the sad faces will pretend that our guests are smiling we have jonathan hoenig and you look fantastic. maybe you can play some music. >> you blew me away.
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with a little bit conservative over here. [laughter] then our chief economist and our retail expert dash skiing in the fact she is not losing money. we have to dig into the first group. equities did not have the chance right out of the gates it is all about oriole but investors throw is in the towel as the day went on and not really sure where the bottom is but is that the tax sale or high valuations? or something else? but in the meantime they fail to get going. >> one of the overreactions is industrials got hammered today. what is the big expense?
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with energy being down they should be doing well. but the reason is people are fearing a global economic slowdown. charles: here is the big question in canada come to america? can we continue? >> i don't know. i have been more bearish on the economy. we have taken steps in the right direction but the economy is fragile. and the consumer will benefit from lower energy prices losing incentives to invest. >> something is up. energy has lost 40 percent? >> the of the elements of the economy is what we get right now.
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and with the high-yield market. the credit markets, . charles: we will get into that in greater detail but there are areas that are crumbling outside of retail. >> given in the consumer sentiment it is the best we have had in years. maybe people are paying attention but factory orders are down well beyond expectation talk about a slowdown. charles: why do we believe those numbers are bad? >> the chinese stocks have gotten there but kicked civic and the chinese leaders said they have to prepare for the new normal. those words isn't that says prepare for the new normal
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that is a scary term. >> so maybe wherever they land but to derail. >> is under the ample amount of bad debt to reinstates a sustainable consumer society. this may be the new normal but. >> but what the heck? what do you think? a lot of times and then three days later that is why. >> there isn't one answer.
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in bed with the all-time high. id with the lofty levels. >> also of portfolio manager will sell the of losing divisions. charles: the last two weeks of the year could be a complete reversal. >> that the better names? >> it seems a little panicked to me with the long-term bond. >> there is a flight to quality. in the bond market. >> this is not a panic. >> we have gotten used so used to that ride.
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>> has been years since we've had a 10% correction. >> it is about the strength of the economy, no question. charles: when does it come together? we have to wait until o january? by that time there could be more carnage in the market. >> we will see volatility and the juxtaposition between the more bullish numbers that have back-to-back quarters of the above trend growth and an ample hiring but then you also have them say we are still lot seeing wage growth but part-time hiring dominate the came. charles: and i agree with everything that you said. you have a legitimate
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argument. we must move soon. >> to be fair that is one month. charles: we will stop right here to blows the whistle and open from the investment playbook. we have to take a look at oriole. we thought that would be the last chance. yesterday you can see here going all the way back this area unless something drastic happens fast almost every expert specializes in the crude area says we're going back through 2009 and that is under $40. is not about cheap gas. but three weeks ago it was 70 is about what is the
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story or what comes after that. there has always been a problem. i will lead mitt there is evidence things changed. the rule of thumb that gdp of oil consumption and goes hand-in-hand. as we were officially coming out of the recession in the gdp continued to rebound by oil consumption cratered and has not recovered since. so if it is not this relationship and a harbinger of something worse maybe we connect the dots back to the high yields because the energy companies have issued $550 billion with $3 trillion but overall john shields are climbing fast and although we are all long
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way from the site of the financial crisis people will get even more nervous. so let's talk about this. >> if you want to talk about credit spreads is a satiric. people are getting nervous about rest. i own a capitalist i own this. it goes up when the credits spread widens some of the junk-bond our kill the spread will widen. charles: you brought this set before people that i knew but what are the implications for the economy ? >> as you highlight the junk-bond market and has the energy space also though lower market which is a lot
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of product kept on the balance sheet but the fact is they are getting hurt in there on marginal companies. but to say it is not as big of a concern is i was thinking because the maturity is not near term. they owe money they will borrow more expensive the but the maturity is extended they will not be as hurt as they thought. >> baines have a lot of loans on the books it is almost because they bet on u.s. shale netanyahu in the economy withstand the energy sector? even with that one major sector is in trouble? >> how long can we withstand that kind?
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the oil and gas extraction it contributes half a percent in the a dual composition of the past four years. if we remove that it is the direct impact will get back to trickle-down effect for every 10 percent reduction production and hiring and investment that is 40 percent of the benefit directly to the consumer. charles: you don't buy it? >> at the end of the day just like the end of 2002 will is created. charles: it has been in the air about three or four years. >> there is always a place to make money. >> prices falling does not benefit anybody.
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>> everybody says the oil prices are too high. because there are so many junk bonds out there you have the risky assets then it will be the end of it. >> in the near term we see it with there retail market. everyone will fight me on that. charles: i don't think so but that we have come to a summary that potentially you were more concerned about this and everyone else and we watched this to say maybe is a knee-jerk reaction. and passed to scare everybody because there has been negative implications
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it is followed by long periods of deflation. but we will see it has been a scary week. to date a lot of people and selling the stock at the end of the year. what do you do? it is hard do you bite the bullet? >> it is a tough call because the phone would not stop ringing on my lunch day. but over the last three weeks it is 50%. this not -- this co not been valued their. unless you need to take tax losses seldon here and buy back in january at a higher
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price. >> they look very attractive but when they first started they said i will never touch it. >> that could be the buy signal. >> up to almost 40 percent of the key want to start getting involved the if you will be involved in metal recommended catching a falling knife. but what's also pull khalil prices is lower prices. so right now we work this out. charles: and not to digress too much but the motivation of saudi arabia if it is the indirect war against iran or whatever it is to think they
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will have to blink sooner or later. you are the technician you cannot catch a falling knife. >> where is your level? >> i want you to tell me what it turns around. >> have you know, ? >> that is why i say when it turns around is it 20%? >> i am making is the analysis. but from the '80s it took 15 years a whole release period charles: you don't think that will happen in the? >> the for a long prolonged
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period with all these commodities trades but what is the next new trade? we have seen that for quite some time. >> i do agree with most commodities but i don't put oil and gold into the same camp so as long as the economy stays where it is it will come back. charles: i think the number is 65 on the upside. lot of lenders last week. restarted off with a takeover but we have a lesson on fighting -- biting the bullet. next. ♪
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charles: here is the disaster. what makes me upset for people send me emails i want to buy the stock what else do you like? what chip. i told you it was high risk it was an understatement was a disaster. [laughter] down 29% in less than a month. >> we were not in it but if you are down a bit now. try to find something else. that was me talking in september the stock was hammered but it did is what
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makes the person said mitt it was a mistake and since that day i said sold it is has gone down an additional 41% so sometimes you have to take your lumps for i think the value proposition says it will rebound much higher. if that changes i will bite the bullet and that is a perfect example for the realization to put aside the ego and take the head. in edmonton in just last month taking over 32 percent we took profits after the news of merck acquiring a company. and to have some profits on its a lot of people jumped
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on that bandwagon. said to have another retail winner the stock popped it is that since i mentioned it but to check out the pros and a great way to cash in on capitalism. the stock is doing well but it has been downgraded and i thought a convoluted reason. you still likes the stock? >> that is what they're trying to get back to they beat off the bottom line. and a 5% increase i still like it. >> this is gore traders or investors? >> it is long term.
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now there is the organic food play? they are doing extraordinarily well. anybody they want to chase? >> that organic food market is customers it is here to stay. expect the the etfs growth rate they also reiterated guidance i love to stop. charles: writers systems? that has held up pretty well we have more than one good month of economic data people will start to move just in time for summer. to where they have no taxes. >> at the time it was the pick on in america and now
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be as cheap gas people drive trucks more hours so they seldom rise services with the uptick i still like that >> one of the most important points you do not hear anywhere else the importance of taking losses but they have to be right. >> and last night was the real nail biter -- nail biter. from the mid term results it makes of mockery of the politicians but here is the bigger question is this the big story of the week? i think it is. we will be right back. we will be right back. ♪
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i have $40,ney do you have in your pocket right now? $21. could something that small make an impact on something as big as your retirement? i don't think so. well if you start putting that towards your retirement every week and let it grow over time, for twenty to thirty years, that retirement challenge might not seem so big after all. ♪ charles: the storm come again, my best way to creep under the garb in income and there is no other shelter then misery acquainting a man, i will here this until the storm has passed. that is the quote of the day.
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we are talking about washington dc in these odd couples sharing the same things. more or less to protect their turf. john boehner and barack obama. heretofore we will call them the establishment. pushing through a bill that defies midterm election results it will make a mockery of all the big talk and promises. it was a nail biter. and you can see the most incredible thing, nancy pelosi said that she was enormously disappointed. saying don't be intimidated by obama. i have to say something, but maybe all of these years the media got it wrong about who would the real obstructionist. >> i think that the truth is discussed with politicians now, is that they are realizing, how is it going to portion up? we need to stop talking about these individual principles and
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talk about principles. when you see these political dealings that are solely about keeping political power, you just feel like it is fodder for the mel. it's hard to get enthusiastic because it's the end of story. charles: $1.1 trillion, let's talk about this. >> we are setting ourselves up for higher taxes. and they talk about oil prices, we have talked about it in the first segment, basically giving the consumer an extra $200 in her pocket. health care insurance premiums have gone up between 30 and 40%. costing the average family an extra $3000 per year.
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charles: releasing a tidal wave of roles from the epa. >> this is not going to be starting well. charles: hundreds of thousands. i will say last night there was a citigroup tax, they donated a lot of money and they were pushing buttons. jamie dimon was making phone calls. so now the doctrine provision is that they want to take it out or you don't have anymore derivatives, it's as the regular savings and checking account. does anyone have a chance with these wall street billionaires? >> this really gets my goat. [laughter]
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and citigroup, this is the first timeback in 2012 they had emplos and they asked employees to contribute saying that this collection was a very important thing, it was volunteer basis, a spokesperson said that it's actually legal for them to do. but how do you solicit your employees for this? this is just wrong. charles: i will tell you what that more and more people are talking about elizabeth warren, making a run for the presidency. and you have to listen to what she was saying last night because i think she was a big winner. >> in the last minute, the spending bill must be passed. we are making it a priority to do the wall street betting. who you work for? wall street? for the american people? >> long time ago i said that she's probably going to be the candidate. she was the clear winner last
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night and for me, that is a very ominous sign for the stock market. >> we should remember this day and that, because it's a pivotal moment. when she runs, we are going to say this is a turning point in a big boost for it one issue is that she doesn't like the president's nomination to a third ranking treasured possession. she thinks it's too incestuous with wall street. charles: you wonder why whenever they say we have wasted a couple of years on dodd-frank, small people want to buy a house. and when we go through this in the first place? >> i think arguably the pendulum has swung too far to the other side. even ben bernanke came out. and so certainly the exact consumers and the homebuyers in the small business owners, they
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are targeted to help with the exact ones that are harmed. >> no one is questioning whether we should have regulations. we have people that want to have more regulations and others. charles: the argument is that we had unfettered capitalism. so okay, i had an e-mail from mira who says i wish i had the power to control my own destiny and instead of these blockheads having the power to control there is at my expense. and at the end of the day, screaming at each other during the day, sharing drinks together a night, it is a democracy at work. this is the kind of stuff that keeps people out of the stock market. >> i had a big issue when obama was elected, they shunned the stock market because they thought obama would kill the country. in the meanwhile they have missed out on the greatest rallying. what they need to do is take the political views and it's very
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interesting. if you let your political emotion involved, you'll never be satisfied. >> there is a point where policy can crush your portfolio and when it can crush other things. i think because of policies that have been put in place this is part of its. >> there is a regulatory cost because we don't know what the policy is going to be six months down the line. it was something like taxicab medallions. >> they have been saying this for years, as we keep saying that come in the stock market keeps hitting highs. >> it doesn't represent the fundamentals of the economy which are very lackluster, we haven't been able to do this. charles: we are going to talk about that's more and also the retail really rebound. and we have strong retail numbers this week, consumer confidence is up and many are spending more. americans rejoicing.
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into savings. are they making a huge mistake they met sent me a tweet. i want to know your thoughts coming up next
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charles: yesterday retail sales will weigh consensus estimates driven by big moves and building materials, people are still going out to eat and buying electronic devices. all of that are positive signs. and then another sign with a consumer sentiment out, that luminary reading 93.8, that's the best since january 2007. you can see the sentiment -- the stock market is higher than sentiment, but we are starting to rebound. we have a long way to go. retail sales -- stocks looking pretty good. beyond that, what are we looking at here? i want to ask you about that because we still have the
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juxtaposition. maybe main street doesn't follow wall street. can people on main street go out and shop and shop? to our earlier discussion? >> consumer spending was up in november, but just two months ago the spending was negative great when you look at a three month average, four tenths of a percent which is hardly anything to write home about. very modest despite the fact that we have seen this. charles: are you worried? these earnings reports say that debt is up 6%. a few years ago we as americans made a shift in we started using debit more than credit and we got on our credit card expenses. we worried that that may be a deflection point and then savings are around 5%. are we going to get to spend money that we don't have even if it means greater risks? >> consumers are ramping up spending in any degree. and they are certainly using
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something to supplement it. drawing down savings are taking on new amounts of debt. >> for those in the market, looking at all-time highs, and they are feeling a little better about things. you have to put money in your pocket because gas prices came down. now i think we are talking about the slowdown and the demand for oil and the little bit of caution and people say, am i misreading this? the stock market in the economy, the economy is not the stock market. wall street is getting hurt, consumers as well. charles: we talked about retail stocks which have done very well. we know from time to time they have an overzealous stock. it's not going so well and could be oversold. staples had a pretty good day, urban outfitters had a pretty good day, some of the names that we kicked to the curb, is there a way for investors to get involved and not have to buy stock at an all-time high?
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>> we are also experiencing it in pullback. i tend to like amazon and i also like under armour even though i also talked about lulu lemon yesterday. but i think that these companies are very good. under armour trading 78 times, industry average at 30. this is the way to the investor can get in on the retail side. just wanting to reiterate something that we are saying. historically since the recession we see how it goes back up as we get to the holidays. >> that's right, trying to make it look good, you can swing that statistic anyway you look at it. >> i do not think the consumer is feeling less confident. >> who would be talking about one and a half precent?
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charles: we have to leave it there, sorry about that, we have to talk about finance because they are beginning, last week on the jobs numbers, they have turned down an airplane a lot of momentum. and by the way, that move has paid off for people for a long time. but we have to consider if there is another message. we will have a nice debate and it's something that you need to know because it is your money coming up next.
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charles: it's hard to believe that it's just then a week. remember when the jobs numbers came out and the bond yields began the rally?
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since then it has been back quick and fast. some of this is a knee-jerk move, but it's a move that has paid off. this is one that everyone says will end. but beyond that, i'm not sure. i have to tell you that i think it's not for the average investor to hand over all their hard-earned cash to the federal government for 2%. over a certain period of time, it's ridiculous. but this money we are talking about is presumably meaning smart money. so could the mu we are seeing right now, could this be something that come? or are these guys, the smart money guys moving them back into bonds? it's been a comfortable trade that is working two. >> there's a lot of concern that the despite the fact that they are talking about the 2015th great hike, they are saying that it's next year for the past four years. so i think there's concern that because the economy is on an even footing and we are facing
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this environment, that we can be talking about 2016. i have been talking about that for years. so i think that there's a lot of concern there that the fed has been promising something for years that won't come. charles: a lot of people don't know history, but george bush, when he was running for president he was up 80%. he had one of the best approval ratings ever. things got shaky and then the feds raise the rates. they blamed him for losing the election. so if we don't get 2015, that means that we probably can't get 2016 because that would be an election-year which is almost like completely off-limits between the fed and the government. >> i don't know if i buy the argument, i think they have been clear that they are going to maintain the economy from the federal government. and i'm hearing laughter in the background. [laughter] charles: they are joined at the hip, janet yellen and obama. do you really believe that there
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is a wall between the two and there's no communication? >> i am sure that there are holes in the wall. i do trust her to focus on the economy and do her job. >> the value of the u.s. dollar. charles: the inflation and jobs now includes the housing market and global economy. is she going to determine our interest rates because germany is a little wobbly? >> responsibility is unbelievable. it's not just jobs and inflation, it seems on the bond side, it does show concerns. but i think it might be justified giving the falling price of oil. so the bond yields should stay low. charles: if not inflation beyond oil. this weekend i'm going to have the turntable, and a big stack of records. the old-school records coming up
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how couin jellyfish, protein impact life expectancy in the u.s., real estate in hong kong, and the optics industry in germany? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 70% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. . >> you know, maybe it's that initial crackling and his sound when you put the needle on the record that has a certain anticipation or the nostalgia of the artwork on the albums, thinking back to a greater time of innocence. i love vinyl lp's. i'm not the only one. u.s. vinyl album sales are 49%
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this year continue the trend that goes all the way back to 1995. still, the 8 million albums are only 2% of music sold. nevertheless, i picked up led zeppelin one. no woman, no cry. both at barnes & noble. i have hundreds of vinyl lp's at home. when you purchase the new once, i pick them up and a couple others, it felt great as i handed the cashier my money. there are only 15 factories pressing out the albums. a single company that supplies 90% of the raw vinyl. if jonathan sparks a new fashion craze there could be a war over raw vinyl and fewer lp's and for me fewer memories. it's a toss-up which one is cooler, i'm rooting for the vinyl lp craze to keep going. i'm going to cozy up to a turn table, have a good cigar, cognac and listen to stack of records. you are going to spark a big praise for the jacket.
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i hope there's enough raw vinyl for both. anyone like lp's? >> i'm with you charles. i love to kick back, i have a zimma, i watch my laser disk collection, it's the same thing. >> it was the most -- i was in whole foods and they were selling lp vinyl in the section over there. the hipsters in brooklyn are bringing it back. >> nothing like hearing the scratch, the crackling when you put it on. >> you're too young, you don't know what i'm talking about. >> i have a turn table, hipsters are owning them and not using them. i resemble that remark. >> the sewing machine came in, people were like, no, no, no, i want the spindle wheel back. you embrace it in technology. this is people's whole lives, they are buried with these. >> all right. >> you can get something that plays cd's, tapes and the lp's. >> anybody got the 8 track
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collection going? no. i had a couple great 8 tracks. the first one was kc and the sunshine band. we are getting a ton of data. lot of stuff from the federal reserve, they're going have a meeting and data on housing. earnings from fedex, nike, oracle, the regional fed data is very telling, coupled with the earnings. i think all of the earnings are going to beat and we're going to get good guidance for 2015. it comes to the fomc. the federal reserve meeting, and now everyone is worried about them taking out considerable time and whatever from the commentary. all right, lindsay, the biggest piece of economic data out there and the implication says in. >> the fed meeting, second to nonfarm payroll, the fed meeting will be the key market mover last week. >> that's what gets you economists geeked up? >> yeah. >> you sit there with a dr. pepper and a calculator, go
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janet! go janet! >> this is the last meeting of 2014, the last meeting for the voting members this year. it's going to be a much more dovish committee meeting. janet yellen is going to have to convey to the market the continued juxtaposition we talked about that is continuing to plague the economy and make monetary policies very difficult. i think they are going to keep considerable times. >> here's the thing, jim, the fed is going to have to justify their existence, you have to say things are getting better. you took on all the risks and buy time. i find that interesting. what do you think is important? >> european leaders are getting together for a two-day summit to talk about the geopolitical concerns and russia. you have the fed and european leaders all get together. >> jonathan, you don't care about the news. >> i care about the news, i don't trade on the news.
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>> what is important? >> something smells different. we talked about this earlier, specifically what's happening in the emerging markets. ruble is getting absolutely killed, brazil is getting absolutely killed. back to the 1996, 1997 emerging markets, asian currency crisis. >> it started with a currency. >> now is the right time to have a little extra cash on hand. >> before we go, we've got to make our salutes to the american success, this is a single mom of two boys, janine from charleston, south carolina, she enjoys making body care products and did it for fun, gifts for family and friends. develop the line of hand-crafted bath and body care products has become known as the charleston soap chef. look at that. selling american made bath and beauty products for christmastime. we salute you, janine, you are a true american success. go to our website,
7:00 pm payne. you were fantastic. enjoyed it. jonathan, come back any time. >> thank you. >> we had a fantastic week, don't worry about the market crash. in the meantime, lou dobbs is going to take you into the weekend. keep it on fox business. lou: good evening, everybody. breaking news. the federal government now 29 hours from shutting down. the fate of the obama-boehner trillion dollar plus fiscal year long government funding bill in the hand of harry reid in his final days as majority leader of the u.s. senate. congress definitely divided on the legislation, house speaker john boehner needed more than 50 democratic votes in order to pass the massive spending bill. the president himself lobbying democratic congressman for those votes, exposing a deep divide among house democrats. minority leader


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