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tv   The Intelligence Report With Trish Regan  FOX Business  September 4, 2015 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT

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>> i don't think that has huge impact on presidential election yet. neil: the worse those numbers get on the dow, better his poll numbers look for one donald trump. it is amazing. and it is pivotal time in this country. doesn't trish regan know it. trish? trish: neil, thank you so much. we are in a market with step selloff to the close. welcome to "the intelligence report." i'm trish regan. stocks sinking on august jobs report. nowhere to hide. every s&p sector is lower. joining us what we can expect as we head into the close, stephen guilfoyle, jim rickards, brian wesbury. brian, reaction to sell off today. are people that worried about the economy? if so, wouldn't they think the fed would keep status quo? you would think market would be up with a report like this. >> i actually, everybody keeps calling this a weak report. there is no way this is a weak
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report. 66 months in a row of private sector jobs growth. i can't problem is you, almost always revised up. biggest month of upward revisions we have. this market is going through emotional, technical, correction. this is not a fundamental problem. not global economy causing this crash in markets. trish: john, do you want to take a stab at that? do you agree with brian? >> i say we're not paying attention to the fundamentals or the market isn't. everybody here is really looking to still to sell the market lower. being done primarily on back of chinese devaluation, uncertainty towards that. a misinterpretation of what the fed is about. the fed when it does raise rates, whether it does it in september or october, it will be very modest.
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it will be akin to what the taper was. >> actually think the fed will do that? i got to stop you there. i think this federal reserve just looked at today's jobs report, i disagree, brian, i don't think this is anything to write home about. i don't care about 173,000 jobs if they're not paying anything. we saw pretty stagnant wage growth. if you get excited about 0.3%. >> wait a minute. trish: seeing that the fed will continue to being accommodative as it possibly can? >> i look second quarter, 3.7%. revised to 3.7 from 2.3% earlier. remember the first quarter of the year was negative. now it is mildly positive. we're doing much better here. and as we go from -- trish: i'm glad i have some optimists on this show, i got to say. go ahead, brian. >> hold on one second. 0.3% is one month.
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if you annualize that over a whole year, it is 4% growth. inflation is only 1%. trish: but only been 2 1/2% when you look at real numbers. >> growing 4% at annual rate. trish: if you can assume -- >> wages are growing three. that means standard of islive something rising. we have -- trish: two things, number one, brian, people are not seeing 4% increases. you're annualizing it and looks forward we continue getting .3% growth. we're not necessarily getting that it is environment where only 2 1/2% wage growth right now. >> you're right. and that is faster than inflation. but you mentioned the one-month. you tried to make 0.3 sound he slow. it is not. and so, point i'm getting to -- trish: i will get someone a little more bearish in here. i appreciate the optimism. i like optimism but i worry about the global slowdown we're seeing right now, jim rickards. i worry about the lack of strong jobs being added to the u.s.
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economy. i think the fed is worried about it. perhaps overly worried about it. right now, your thoughts? >> i agree completely. the problem with the employment report, brian thinks it is very bullish, i think it is awful employment report. interestingly the stock market agrees with brian. if fed raises rates, it will be historic blunder. cause a global meltdown. so market is discounting the blunder. my view this is incredibly weak report. trish: why do you see it as so weak. i agree but why do you agree it is weak. >> i look at trend. job creation peaked last november 350,000 jobs. went down to 330. last two months is 245. this month is 170. if we rise up 195 to 200,000, the trend is down. job creation stalled last november same time stock market stalled out. economy is weak. job is one part of three-part recipe. other part is growth and
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inflation. inflation is core deflator year-over-year is going down. growth, .6 of first quarter. third quarter is almost over that comes out of 1.9 for the year. nowhere what the feed needs. heed if is not going to raise. trish: no one out there is working. 62.6% the lowest level we've seen since the late 1970s. steven gilfoyle, our on the floor of the new york stock exchange right now. we're seeing markets sell off. we can only see this is anticipation the fed might decide to move in september. doubtful i think. what are people telling you down there? >> i think we'll see mine minor uptick in the rate. we're also seeing russell 2000 outperform everything else. that is the different story. that is because china is going to trade twice before we open on tuesday. trish: we're just showing nasdaq composite index off nearly 2%.
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65 points is loss on nasdaq. intraday, we're just near the lows of the session. we're watching a lot of tech stocks get hit here. everything from apple to amazon. we have board we can show you. why is it that tech is really taking it on the chin? this is a sector that has been, steven, built up so much over last several years. this has been the growth opportunity. do we take this off the table first. >> don't forget citigroup with their big tech symposium next tuesday and wednesday. this may be risk off ahead of that. they may be afraid what is said or analysts say coming out of those meetings. that particular sector is little more risk off for that space. trish: i have a question for you brian. how beholden do you think the fed is right now to the markets? when the market reacts as we've seen the market react to economic news, in such a way that indicates maybe the fed's not going to move, does that
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influence their thinking in anyway? >> you know -- trish: does -- >> when ben bernanke first mentioned tapering we had the taper tantrum of the fed held off on tapering. then they tapered and the market went higher. the economy did not collapse. the emerging markets did not collapse. nothing collapsed. and now we're hearing that going from 1/8 of a percent to 3/8 of a percent of interest rates will throw the world into cataclysmic collapse? that is just baloney. i hope the fed has learned from this. i don't know that they have. they keep marching forward. if you look at jackson hole. if you look at the leaks that we see in the newspapers it seems to me that they want to raise rates. with a 5.1% unemployment rate, we're there. that is what they predicted for the end of this year. it is time for them to raise rates. janet yellen wants to. trish: you know they, probably should have done it a long time
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ago. there is some concern right now and bill gross has echoed this concern in his recent note they had a window and guess what? they missed it because all of sudden dealing with problems in china, dealing with stronger u.s. dollar. if you raise rates you make the dollar that much stronger which makes it that much harder to export. jim -- hang on one second. jim disagrees with you. he worries about real global problem. >> i'm a brian wesbury fan. there is no such thing as one rate increase. you have to bring the fed funds futures curve forward. if you change expectations by 25 basis points like changing it by four rate increases. bring whole curve forward. impact is greater. they're right on the edge. i look for october surprise. i don't think they will raise in september. that means decent, but october no one expects because there is no press conference. remember the last spring the fed did a dress rehearsal on telefonic press conference. don't assume it will be when we have a press conference. so look for october surprise. trish: that would be
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interesting. what do you think? go ahead, brian. >> let me say something, real quick. jim is right, about forward expectations not just the first rate hike. the fed made it clear we'll go really slow. here is way i think about it. when you pull off a bandaid the thought of how much it hurts is worse than what it actually is. trish: good way to put it. >> that is what a rate hike is. everybody is scared to death about it but they're wrongly scared. like pulling off bandaid. >> it will be confirmmation which the market wants to see very much the market wants to see confirmation here the economy is doing bert. saying to the fed, tell us it is sustainable. they do 15 bits now. 10 bits in october. i don't think they will start with 10 of the think they will do 15 and then do 10. i think market will like it, very much on pattern way we were, agree with brian. brian a lot of people are agreeing with you. trish: exempt for jim. and maybe trish.
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>> when you rip off the bandaid hope the wound is healed or you will bleed to death. trish: wow. that is one way to put it. are we going to bleed to death? brian, i think they should have moved some time ago. there is part of me very much with you that they should move. it would send a message to investors and into the markets you know what, that we don't need to be addicted to this stuff. we can survive out the sugar. >> right. trish: there are fundamentals the fed feels comfortable about. it is important optimistic sign. >> exactly. trish: yet what does it do to our currency? what is the real world effect. what does it send the dollar to and do you want to raise your currency before everybody has done theirs. >> i think that is a great point, trish. one of the underlying fundamentals or assumptions that is underneath this conversation we're having is the people who
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believe that the only reason the stock market is up, the only reason the economy has grown in the last six years is because the fed did qe, because they held interest rates at zero. i don't believe that. the fed bought all these bond but the m-2 measure of money has continued to grow at just 6% a year. trish: can i show you guys a chart? i don't know if you can see it, brians, you're talking into a camera but gentlemen here at home base can see it. i will tell y'all about it. we have a chart that shows the federal reserve's balance sheet versus the dow. >> right. trish: take a look at this, everyone. take a big full screen shot. full on shot. so you can appreciate just exactly what we're talking about. >> yeah. trish: you see in yellow, you have the fed's balance sheet which kept growing and growing, alongside it in blue, the dow jones industrial average which grew alongside the dow, grew alongside the federal reserve balance sheet. what do you make of that, brian?
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>> i know exactly what chart you're showing. i can't see it but i can see it in my brain. that is correlation, not causation. i will give you a correlation. the fed did qe1, qe2, qe3 and chicago blackhawks, nhl hockey team won stanley cup one, stanley cup 2, and stanley cup 3. did qe cause stanley cup to come to chicago? you can show two lines going together but that doesn't mean one caused other. i don't buy it. prove it. >> you're fine with a rate hike, right. >> the steven, go made. >> you're fine with a rate hike. we should have a small rate hike. trish: he is. >> yes, absolutely. trish: he is absolutely fine with rate hike. are you fine with the rate hike, steven? what will it do to traders down on floor of stock exchange when they hair fed increases by quarter after%. >> i don't think a small rate hike changes anyone's trade or grandma's standard of living. and gets cost of credit off the
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zero line when the gdp is 3.7%. i think, i would never got it this low as you just said. would have raised it a long time ago at this point. seems element tallal. >> they missed whole cycle. should have raised in 2010. cuff cut today when economy is weak. brian talks about causation, fed raises rates sign of health in the economy. other way around, when economy gets stronger, you raise rates. fed follows economy. trish: that is part of the problem. we wonder what do we need this fed for anyway? they're always following, playing catch-up. face it guys, they're always, always late to the party. are they actually causing in some ways more harm than good, brian? >> i do. i think, you know, i have whole another side with the fed. why does getting phd in princeton economics make you smarter about banking than a bank their has been running a bank for 40 years?
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i don't understand that. >> amen to that. >> that is what we've done. we've put government officials in charge of our economy. they need too get out of the way. >> i said -- >> i do not believe. let me put one last thing here. if the fed goes to half or 75 basis points they will not do that anytime soon. do you think the apple boardroom will care one bit? i don't. they won't even talk about. they will talk about samsung and motorola and apple pay and what -- trish: maybe marks it harder to do some financial engineering moves they have all done. seen m&a go to record levels. companies buying out competition face it doesn't create jobs in the near term. you could argue about productivity et cetera. nonetheless, there are a lost reasons to think they have been more creative with balance sheets as a result of cheap money. but you said something very interesting here, brian. i want to get back to that i can see both you guys trying to get in on this, you have a bunch of
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princeton economists, yeah, running our system and they're doing more harm than good. >> the thing i see, without the fed and what the fed has done, without hank paulson at treasury in '08, i don't think we would be sitting here today. i think it was necessary. i don't think, i don't think the business leadership was ready to make a move to get commercial paper back in line in 2008. i think underneath this, first you have the whole uber-leverage let's say in the global economy. misdirected fiscal policy not only here but abroad. but when all of this came to crack, once you started fixing it you really needed veritable defibrillator. beyond that you have algorithms in office places. robotics -- trish: okay, fed are they doing more harm than good? >> i said in my last book the princeton economics department should be quarantined like ebola lab. they should not be out running
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policy i agree with brian on that. trish: they're a bunch of d.c. types and academics. they may have created another problem. i have to take a quick break. more coming up on the markets and selloff. donald trump out swinging today, again. he is on the attack after radio host asked him about series of questions about middle east leaders. was this a gotcha journalist moment? plus oil getting ready to close out the day less than 13 minutes. what do prices mean for your pain at the pump? see you soon. ♪
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disappointing jobs report. traders concern the global slow down will continue sink demand for oil. we have a bright spot. seeing cheaper gas prices cheapest in a decade. price futures group senior a analyst phil flynn watching and, phil from the cme. along some drivers. jeff flock. your take on this. citi calling for $20 oil. how low do you think it could see a bottom? >> i don't think citi is right unless we get into massive global slowdown. i don't things are bad as people think. we're seeing resilience in oil. remember we had biggest three-day come back since 1990. believe it or not, even with the stock market down right now, we're seeing oil mounting a comeback, we could get higher in the day. why is that? we have baker hughes rig count. of the shows oil rigs wiped out
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five weeks of gains by oil rigs falling 13 this week. u.s. production could actually fall. mantra that u.s. production will stay strong all year is being questioned right now. trish: phil, the great thing about being an energy trader, never a dull moment there in the pits. especially now. >> never. breaking every few minutes, i'm telling you. trish: oil has had a wild ride but the good news, at least for consumers is, we have seen at least recently much lower prices at the gas pump. how big of an effect does it have on people's willingness to drive and therefore on prices? jeff flock, joining from alongside the highway where there is a lot of traffic behind you, yikes. >> always fun along the highway 90-degrees temperature and gasoline bell muching vehicles. bell ching vehicles. look at price break that they're getting, trish. this compared to last year.
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we looked at last five sent 4ths. its over dollar less this year than last year. more than the years before. according to gas buddy that is $1.4 billion in hands of consumers. trish: good news, right? good news. but you know, i guess part of the question, phil, when do consumers actually start spending it? are we seeing evidence they may be spending it? the recent print on gross domestics product, gdp showing economy grew 3.%. is this perhaps-- 3.7%. this is trickle down of lower gas prices? >> i think so. you look where they're spending it, they're not. they're saving money they're getting in their pocket. you can tell by today's jobs report. new growth of jobs was anemic coming in at 173. yeah, you can put lipstick on the pig saying revision last month and overall unemployment rate went down but you can tell by gasoline prices how consumers really feel.
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when they're not spending money, that is because they are uncertain. i think because of the lack of real strength in this copy. -- economy. trish: phil, jeff, thank you, guys. we'll continue watching a selloff. oil just about seven minutes away from the close of trading there as we watch a market off 326 points, heading into a big holiday weekend. meanwhile, the gop bullying donald trump? the billionaire signing the pledge to not run as a third party candidate, but can he convince his rivals that he is a true republican? by the way, does it even matter? voters voting for the candidate or are they voting for a party? we debate all of it, next. ♪
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. trish: take a look at this everyone, we are near session lows. we have an intra-day chart on the dow. we're at, we are at session lows right now. 343 there, just boungs around there on the dow. take a look.
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here we are, as we head into a long holiday weekend. trading of course closed on monday. a little nervousness on the heels of that jobs report. we're going to talk about more of this and continue our coverage of this major sell-off here with the dow at session lows. but meanwhile donald trump is on the attack again after a radio host pulled a dutch kind of moment and caught him not knowing the names of terror leaders. radio host scolding him even. listen to this. >> on the front of islamist terrorism, i'm looking for the next commander, for al zawahiri and al-baghdadi, do you know the players without a scorecard yet, donald trump? >> i think by the time we get to office, they'll all be changed, all gone. i knew you were going to ask me things like this, there's no reason. trish: and typical trump
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fashion, he's firing back here calling hugh hewett a third rate radio announcer, listen to this. >> this third rate radio announcer that i did the show, the gotcha, gotcha, gotcha, the question was do i know this one and that one. he worked hard on that. trish: so is trump's attack a brilliant kind of pr move or are voters going to be concerned he didn't know the answer to some of the questions? do they care? joining me gary b. smith and chris hahn, a former aid to senator chuck schumer. gary, what do you say? does it matter that donald trump didn't know the answers to this guy's questions? >> the only thing that mattered is the answer was entertaining. that's the beauty. everything he does, this guy is entertaining, it's funny. and you ask, will the average person care in the average person says i don't know who my senator, is so i can't expect trump to know who these guys are. trish: he speaks my language and talking to people and he's
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a success himself. you know, that said, is there any comparison moment, john, you think back to katie couric and got sarah palin talking about how she can see rush from her house. sarah palin was captivating and captured a lot of the public. many cite her as being the reason john mccain lost the case. chris hahn, as you look at all of this unfolding, are there similarities, or would you say this guy is into a class of his own? >> he's in a class to his own. i want to thank him for acknowledging that president obama is great at killing terrorists and all the people will be gone if he does take office in two years. trish: i think that was a slip. i think that was a slip. i heard that, too. saying they'd all be gone. it's doubtful they will. >> it's true that the president is great at killing terrorists. he's doing a great job during the six years in office. he'll continue to do that. he knows sarah palin.
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he's in a class all to himself. he is popcorn and entertainment, everybody loves watching him, even people like me that don't agree with his policies, love to watch him. i wish he would call me a two-bit radio host because my ratings would go through the roof. trish: absolutely, positively, too, all of us enjoy watching him, but it may be more than that. may be more than that, gary, because this is a guy, let's face it, who has built a heck of a business. he understands what it takes to get a deal done, and he's taken no prisoners. in other words, the status quo of washington, whatever that is, where you don't do anything, that's not going to work for an entrepreneur like donald trump. >> exactly, trish, i think what resonates with people is one he's willing to tell the truth, two, he has a sense of humor, and i think the third thing is most people can appreciate, a rise up in any corporation, any business, it would be like
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asking the ceo of kellogg if he knows how rice krispies are made. it's ludicrous! people are thinking that's not the ceo's job, and i think most people are looking at donald trump, getting back to that does he know all the names of the players. they must be thinking, doesn't he have people responsible for that, that are ten times more knowledgeable? >> gary. >> hold on one second. that resonates with people that donald trump is another ceo and manager. >> elves make rice krispies, didn't you know that? [ laughter ]. >> here's the problem for the gop. donald trump doesn't know the facts, he doesn't care about the facts and the voters are still picking him, and it speaks to the strength of the people running for president on the right, and that's something they should be very, very concerned about. trish: i'm sorry, who should be concerned there? chris? >> reince priebus and the rest of the gop. donald trump doesn't care about the facts and leading people spending years trying to figure
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the facts out. it's very interesting what's going on, the dynamic, seems like it's a protest year, this is barry goldwater, not richard nixon. trish: i think you're right, this is a protest year, reminds me of another candidate who got into the white house, barack obama, you think about the country back then, we were so fatigued with everything that happened as a result of barack, they were fatigued with bush, barack obama comes out of thin, a no experience as a politician and captivates the imagination of the american voter. we are seeing the same thing, albeit differently with donald trump. >> he was a traditional candidate. he was not this protest candidate. he was protest against the war, maybe, but running a traditional democratic party campaign, and he was well versed on everything within the government. trish: stick with me, do not go anywhere, oil closing out the day and i want to get to it. down 1.5%. that is wild, we were down a
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quarter of a percent moments ago as we were looking at oil prices. 46.05 is the print. down 70 cents. maybe this is good news for american consumers because we all like lower prices at the pump. do not go anywhere, we have a lot to get to. hillary clinton actually, actually doing an interview today, albeit with a network that is totally in her corner. how much is she feeling the heat as her staffers testify today in front of congress over benghazi? chris, stay with me. gary, stay with me. we'll talk hillary clinton and the pressure she's facing as we watch the market sell-off. down 334. do you want to know how hard it can be to breathe with copd? it can feel like this.
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don't let unanswered legal questions hold you up, because we're here, we're here, and we've got your back. legalzoom. legal help is here. . trish: welcome back, everyone. right now members of hillary clinton's inner circle are under fire. one was her, a former policy director and deputy chief of staff under hillary clinton at the state department, jake sullivan facing a day long session of testifying to a congressional panel investigating the deadly benghazi attacks in 2012. this testimony will also impact the campaign trail as sullivan is currently a top policy aide to clinton's presidential team. clinton's former chief of staff cheryl mills answered questions yesterday for 9 1/2 hours. see how sullivan does today. meanwhile you got hillary clinton out there doing a very rare interview, albeit with a
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liberal network, msnbc, the reporter andrea mitchell asked her about that personal e-mail server. listen to this. >> are you sorry? >> well, i certainly wish that i had made a different choice, and i know why the american people have questions about it, and i wanted to make sure they answer those questions. starting with the fact that my personal e-mail use was fully above board. it was allowed by the state department, as they have confirmed, but in retrospect, it certainly would have been better. i take responsibility. i should have had two accounts, one for personal and one for work related. trish: quite a script there from hillary clinton. okay. for more on how this all impacts the democratic front-runner, i want to bring back our panel, chris hahn and fox news contributor gary b. smith. gary, if you think about it, this kind of feels like it did eight years ago, talking about
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barack obama and how he captivated the public back then. here you are all over again looking at an election that is effectively hers to lose, and she's losing. >> and she's losing. couple thoughts went through my mind. you know when i hear about benghazi, i think it's a crime, it's horrible, but on the flip side, it's kind of like the financial world's greece. every few months it tends to bubble up and goes away. i think that's going to be the case with benghazi. now, the server thing, my gosh, if someone on the opposite side ever debated her a donald trump or anyone, they could go through a laundry list of the times she specifically lied. that does dog her, but what's the democratic party left with? joe biden? my gosh. i think they're in a world of hurt right now. trish: chris hahn, about joe biden, he's kind of likeable, people kind of like the guy. >> what? trish: that matters in
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politics, i think that's part of her problem. >> look, likable doesn't even describe him. he's lovable! people love that guy, he's going through a very tough personal time. i do not think he's going to run. i take exception with the word she's losing. i don't think she's losing anything. labor day is monday, and that's when people will start paying attention. really, they will start to start to pay attention. i don't think people really pay attention until iowa, and i don't think she's going to have much of a challenge in iowa. trish: you don't think she's going to have much of a challenge. go ahead, gary. >> don't you think they love joe biden like the nutty uncle who gets up in the morning wearing his underwear walking around the house. you'd never want him as a president, though. you're underestimating one of the greatest politicians in this country, who got elected in the senate before. >> he ran twice!
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>> gary, go ahead. >> he didn't get elected, president, we can all say that, gary. the pinnacle of politics, everybody tries, it's hard. trish: it's hard. there's a certain undefinable quality for, perhaps it's charisma, right? people respond to the charisma, they respond to that connection. >> i agree. trish: and that's what hillary is struggling with right now. she may be a wonderful worker, that's debatable of course right now given her record as secretary of state. there are a lot of things, she could be a wonderful academic but if she doesn't have the charisma, it won't matter. >> charisma matters in august, but competency matters in november. so i think we've got to really think about what's going on. trish: i mean think about kerry and how miserably he did, and think about mitt romney and how miserably he did. both of those guys are examples of lacking charisma.
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>> think about al gore, if we throw that into it. the democratic party needs the most charismatic person they elected was john f. kennedy. my gosh! the guy wreaked of charisma. trish: he cut taxes, jfk. he helped our economy. >> he was pro business and now the democratic party lacks anyone like that, including joe biden. trish: chris? >> look, hillary clinton's married to probably the greatest politician who's ever walked the face of the earth. he will be out there stumping for her, that's going to make a very big difference, and she's very, very well prepared to be president of the united states. marco rubio says she's got the best resume to be president. trish: it's not bill running, ultimately it's her and people have to cast a ballot for hillary clinton. >> that is true. trish: chris, gary, wonderful to have you here as always. we have a market continuing the sell-off. barely off the lows of the session. you see a dow off 2%. is there anywhere to hide?
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today, take a look, here's the nasdaq, tech getting hit hard as well as the s&p. nowhere to hide in the s&p 500 in terms of sectors. everything lower. traders are taking a look at the latest report on the jobs market, which frankly was pretty bad. but the unemployment rate fell to a seven-year low in august. 5.1%, and some are encouraged by that. we only had 173,000 jobs which is not enough to sustain our economy. what's the fed going to do about it? the market cares. the market's reacting. we're talking about it after this. see you here.
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and it was just easy. usaa, they just really make sure that you're well taken care of. usaa car buying service. powered by truecar. online and on the usaa app. . trish: okay, moments ago, gold closing out the day at $1,121 an ounce, the lowest level we've seen in more than two weeks, and this job comes amid all of this uncertainty about the fed, the state of the u.s. economy and, of course, the global economy. don't forget, people wear gold, right? this is jewelry. if china is not doing well, india is not doing well, that affects the affect for gold. we go live to the cme. what do you think about gold now? is it getting to be a level where you step in and buy some here, mark? >> if you look at the price fraction this morning when the
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unemployment report came out, it wasn't very good. you know at its surface, that 5.1 numbers, and the other number that is important is the personal income number ticked up by .4% which is a little hot. that's a number economists have been looking at. gold fell off on that, i think if the fed rips off the band-aid, we could have one more trip lower in gold. trish: but say the fed does, that gold is dependent on the fed, too. that's the reality, everyone is worried the fed is going to move in september. what do you think the likelihood of that really, is mark? >> i'm on the fence, i think shay shouldn't. i think they want to, if you listen to the fed from this morning, they want to simply because they said they want to. trish: yeah, they want to. >> tonight raise rates, and i'm going to do it! >> whether or not can you actually do it is an entirely different thing. >> right.
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and yeah it really doesn't -- i don't think the big number, the nonfarm number was a little bit light. i think we're kind of deflationary, that's one of the things about gold. gold is a measure of inflation, and there is none. i don't think we'll see any real inflation, why would the federal reserve move? so that would be the real upside in gold is the fed gets out of the way and gold starts to rally. really, if it does raise rates, it will be a ripped band-aid where gold could threaten the lows and would present a buying opportunity. as it gets toward 1050 it becomes a buy. trish: 1050? we'll watch for that level. >> somewhere around that range. trish: mark sebastian, good to see you, thank you very much. just about an hour left in this week's trading everyone, and the market's closed for three days. you get jitters going into the long weekend and see it reflected in stock prices. we've got more on it right
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after this break.
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for a free quote today at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. . trish: okay, everyone, we have got 67 minutes left until the closing bell. traders are going to go home for three days. we've got a market on edge, down 300+ points right now. what's going to happen into the weekend? what's going to happen next week? does the sell-off continue? can you step in and do buying. larry rosenthal and jim bianco with the play here. larry, what do you advise? >> trish, thanks for having me again today. i think this is a great buying opportunity as we get down the road a few months and take a look at the prices people employee, the new money or existing portfolios and sort of dress them up for when this recovery does come back. i don't really think this is anything structurally wrong.
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i think it's more of a technical blip on the map right here. all eyes focused on the fed to try and slow it a little bit which brings lots of talking point and opportunity to the table, if we know how to position correctly going forward. trish: if you think the fed is going to keep the status quo, then you get in, right? why not? because they're going to keep the spigot open. jim bianco, if the fed is backing this mark, there's little to drive people away. >> yeah, that's true, and that runs the risk that we can wind up overdoing it. trish: by the way, i worry about very much. i'm just saying, in the year now. >> i think so, but keep in mind the following. last week we had four days the stock market went down 10% in four days. only happened eight times since 1840. every single one retested the low and most made lower lows. if history is the guide, you're going to get a chance to buy
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1850 on the s&p. another chance to buy 15,500 on the dow and lower prices as we move forward. you can't look at it as a double bottom because once we go down there, it could keep going, that's always the risk. trish: but do we really? how much lower do you go, without some kind of real systemic crisis? do we need to be worried about a debt bubble brewing, which we have heard some people voice concerns about that, including alan greenspan right here on the show. larry, what are your -- what are the things that could really derail this market this months? >> we have to take a look at it from two perspectives, trish. one is are we making a short-term trade, and two, are we playing the investors' game for long-term. if we look at it from a long-term perspective. trish: you're buying, right? long-term. you're in this for ten years, don't worry. >> absolutely. even shorter than that, too.
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the next six, 12 months or so, we feel the fed has backed themselves into the corner so much with are we going raise or not going to raise? there's data out there that's all over the place that suggests they should raise and data that says we might not want to raise right now because the economy from some is not as strong and they're not capable of handling it. they're not going to get into a massive raising cycle. the last time they raised is 04-06. trish: they said if they were to move and were to hike by a quarter percent, they actually would probably keep things at bay there, that they wouldn't necessarily be a raising environment. as an investor, i'd be curious to know what you're looking at, what sectors. what are the opportunities when you look at a beaten down market, larry? >> we like tech going forward, biotech, large, small company midsize growth. if you look at p/e's on the
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growth access versus value. we're paying almost $91 to get $100 worth of earnings on large cap growth. we like home depot, things like that. you take a look at construction spending, new housing starts, they're the beneficiary of dollars moving into the sector. so those are strong moves. good strong balance sheets right now. trish: i look at market, and i don't know what is there in our economy to move us forward. what's going to spark some growth? we got one decent print on gdp. god only knows what the revision is going to be because they always change it, and a bunch of prints tinkering with the economy, they don't know what it's like to trade or work in a real job. what's going to grow us? what's going to get touts next leg in this market. >> you bring up a real good point. we're seven years into the recovery.
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the growth has been below average, it's been a disappointment. we also have an earnings recession. two negative quarters of earnings growth, revenue growth, our biggest trading partner canada is in a recession. too negative gdp growth. china is a mess as well, and markets are going crazy. why wouldn't you think that this is going to be the status quo from moving forward from here. there's been a lot of problems with the markets because there's a lot of problems in the world, and that's what we've been seeing over and over again. and real quick, trish, as far as the fed goes, if they hike, they cannot promise they're going to stay at six months before they hike again. what are they telling us? economists take six months off and unemployment numbers don't matter? they can never make the promise. they're going to talk about a second hike in december. trish: and we'll have the same conversation all over again. larry and jim, good to see you guys.
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all right, everyone, as we head into the holiday weekend, i know you're going to worry about the markets. i get it. you heard larry, he's right, you need to forget about it for a while. these markets, whether we like it or not, and mostly i don't, they're dependent on the fed, they're caring so much about the federal reserve right now. investors want that easy money that the fed's offering up, and today's jobs report, well, i think there's enough lousy news in there to confirm that investors are going to get what they want. it's going to be game on for the federal reserve. which means it's game on for these markets. you've heard me say over and over that do i worry about a fed induced asset bubble. that's long-term. in the here and now, we got to get through september, and get through december, but for the near future, the fed's going to remain most likely accommodative. so you've got a market situation that should recover.
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ultimately. we'll see what happens. have a wonderful holiday weekend. i'm heading up north to maine with the fam. i'll see you back here on wednesday. we're 60 minutes into the close of trading and lori rothman is in for liz. take it over. >> the unemployment report helping drive the market down. the dow jones industrial average down at one point over 300 points. most of that on signs that today's report, the jobs report could help the fed justify raising interest rates later this month. the labor department revealing that 173,000 jobs were created last month. that was less than what was expected. but august is notorious for being a month ta revised higher each and every year, reuters says figures show upward revisions on average of 58,000 jobs each august over the last ten years. june and july revised higher and the unemployment rate dropped to lowest level in over


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