tv Wall Street Week FOX Business March 3, 2017 8:00pm-8:31pm EST
thank you for being with us. 367. thank you for being with us. you have a magnificent weekend. good night from new york. >> announcer: from fox business headquarters in new york city, "wall street week." gary: welcome to "wall street week," i'm gary kaminsky. trish rsh -- trish: i'm trish regan. >> to accomplish our goaments ao accomplish our goals we have to make it easier for businesses to do business in the united states. i'm asking all members of congress to join me in dream
offing big and bold and daring things for our country. trish: then this happened. >> if we hit 21,000 today -- gary: the rally did slow down towards the end of the week but one of our guests thinks the trump rally has a long way to go. he thinks we'll see 30,000 by labor day. paul, you are saying 23,000. let's talk about this week first. what did you have make of what happened this week and why was it we made these new highs after the speech tuesday night? >> i think as each day goes on we give investors less andess reason to sell. think all those people who sold last february, who sold after brexit and sold before and right
after the election. i think they are being forced back in, and each time trump gives a speech that's written in the teleprompter, he's following the script and everything us more and more reasons. he has great partners in ryan and mcconnell. it's an agenda we haven't seen since 2003. trish: when you talk about the dow 23,000, is that dependent on the tax cuts coming forward. >> after five straight closes above 20 our new projection is dow 23,000. this is a quantitative projection. if you have ask me what could risk that, what i worry about, if this gets bogged down in congress and the republicans start fighting about the pork or this or that, that's the risk.
gary: one of the things i felt was important this week. last weekend warren buffet said it's time to put your money in index funds. but you have some thoughts about what happens in terms of all the money thrown into index funds and how in an index fund there is no price discovery and that has long-term impact on the markets. >> i do think that. to go with the previous question about the speech. president trump talked about 250 years of america. i got up this morning and said it's 241 years. after 241 years, how do i know the price of the s & p should be? there is no -- when i any of the index i don't know -- when i thk of t index, i don't know what the price should be.
it's easy into vest in the market when it's bullish. but nobody knows what the price should be. gary: does that mean investors yoinvestorssuccumbing to index s that a dangerous thing? >> i don't think it's a dangerous thing. it's an interesting question. i think the stock market is so complex and the buying and selling is so professional that there is merit to the degree of index. however, it's far better to buy a security in a region you understand for a potential you can identify against a risk you are willing to bear. and i think that's investing. that's compelling compared to a process where you buy an index.
trish: the index does measure the market. for that investor who is not willing to put in doubt diligence to do all the research you have guys do, a lot of them like looking at the dow overall or s & p overall. when we talk about the market as a whole, it's a predicte predicf fundamentals. >> sentiment. trish: sentiment is good because all of a sudden you are talking about economic policies that have not been discussed in some time. >> where was buffet in march of '09 ando and '08.
gary: buffet was one of the few voices telling people to invest in america. >> but he never pushed the index fund on people. the push in the index fund is a bell going off. this is the fourth quarter. if people said i had active fund, i paid more in fees, they under performed. the time to bite index fund is after the de -- the time to buy the index funds is after the decline. >> one of the recurrent thing is changes in fashion. gary: we saw that in march of 2000. another major theme this week was a lack of volatility. i think the last 24 trading days over the last 50 years, you have not had a 24-day period in 50
years where you had this lack of volatility. that's worrisome to long-term investors. why are no portfolio managers buying insurance? >> because it's so expensive. i bought 25 houses on the understand i lost. -- on the understan on the th . the upside is great than people think. gary: stay right there. we'll have much more to discuss on "wall street week." we'll have more after this
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trish: the company has an valuation of $30 billion. and it's still losing a lot of money now. typical tech company. we are here with paul schatz and john levin. you are worried things are getting a little frosty. everybody is thinking the same. you have see an ipo like this one, a tech company coming out. does it bring memories of the year 2000? >> the s & p index people have created a great index. trish: what are your thoughts on snap? >> clearly it's representative a frothy environment. but that started in '98. it took 21 months to get us out
of control. regarding snap, i asked my 1 13-year-old daughter, what do you think of it? she uses snap and instagram. i said which one is more important? bert revenues, bigger losses. they are not 800-pounds gorilla in their industry. trish: you think a competitor could come along. >> they are going to fight facebook. they are the 800-pounds gorilla. i don't care if snap goes you have 25% from here even if it's the next microsoft, am or google. history says wait 3-6 months. the price will stabilize then you can buy it it's insane to go buy and trade this almost garbage now. trish: wow, almost garbage.
gary: john, let's go back to the markets. we built in expectations for tax cuts and regulatory reform. the market is pricing in a lot of this. to go back to what trish was saying about concerns that are out there. when will the market say enough is enough. when will we have to worry what we are not getting out of washington will start to impact the markets? >> the markets do with they are going to do. and we talk about triggers after. just to take a hierarchy. if you look at the proposals. one that's positive and has month cost is re-patriation. on the on th -- on the other ha-
>> it's seasoned by these companies. but who is going to spend money, infrastructure bank controlled by whom. but the money will come back. that seems like a relatively free, easy thing for the economy. when you come to tax cuts. to my way of thinking is a hierarchy here. one final word for our viewers i think they don't want to pay for it. they will score the economy. i had people say they will score the economy with a trillion dollars or more growth. a bored tax is a complicated thing. and we spend time or not. everybody who looked at this. i saw a scoring about 2/3 of the taxes. there is a lot of money offshore. still border taxes are an issue of. the third is the discussion of non-deduct built of interest where the prospective and i can't believe retrospective. that's the first thing.
what is the other side of the good news? then there is the question of what time do people begin to worry about it? you have got to have a legislative process that doesn't just involve the democrats, but involves the republicans. look at healthcare. the path to getting the result -- people might say we won't have a result so quickly. gary: that won't end the bull market. even if we stumble and the republicans start fighting. you will have a significant market event in september-october. but to my view, this bull market gets killed if merkel lose and if the french elections go off the deep end. then you will have what everybody else felt before. we killed their bull market and somebody else will kill our bull market in 2018.
trish: unless you believe in the trump philosophy that we are dependent on ourselves and have an isolationist approach to it. >> that's more rhetoric than economy. >> we are a global economy. >> i think paul is right on that. the fact that we live in a gated community is going to be tested whether it's mexico or china. are we going to do something with the deficit with china? trish: i like this idea, 23,000 is your call for labor day. >> then we go down. john levin, thank you so much. more "wall street week" after this. >> announcer: our objective is to tap tax reform by the tax recess.
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[♪] gary: president trump's speech wasn't the only thing to make stocks surge. stocks reacting big time when neil cavuto asked steve mnuchin about tax reform. >> our objecve is to pass tax reform bthe august recs. that's an aggressive timetable, but realistic but something the president and i are committed to doing. neil: by august, voted, done, agreed. >> and signed. trish: after that interview aired on fox business, we took one big leg up in the market.
is the market making too big a bet on that promise? gary: charles payne and dagen mcdowell. are we going to see labor day tax reform? charles: i wish they would say tax cuts separate from tax reform. ronald reagan did tax cuts fairly quickly. we always talk about how big the tax code is. if you printed it out, it would be terrell than shaquille o'neal. i don't know that wall street cared as much as get regulations out of the way and lower the rates immediately. dagen mcdowell on the deregulation, the significant rules president obama put in place. you see the russell 2000 hitting
all-time highs. but the line is in the sand. august is a tough timeline that congress is working with. i think they will end up cutting taxes, making them retroactive to january 1, then dealing with tax reform. particularly on the business side. with that border adjustment tax there are so many republicans not on board with that. trish: you look at the border adjustment tax and there is concern about the retail industry. dagen: gas prices go up immediately if they put that in place. and oil prices go up immediately. gary: the repatriation has to be part of whether you have call a tax reform a tax cut. the s & p reflects repatriation.
charles: the idea is how -- what's the agreement. when george bush did it there was evidence a lot of money came back. some will go to buyback and a large part will go to refunding this economy. trish: they didn't do that way they wanted and intended last time around. charles: they do a one-time holiday, but to your point, then candidate trump i said why don't you guys just drop it. the argument is every country except us has a vat tax. is there anyone watching this show that wants to pay taxes twice? it doesn't make sense. it's nuts. let them bring the money back. trish: invest it he. i hear you. back to the timetabl i think the market is dependent
on it. i hope it happens by labor day. but the on way that's even possible is if they come through with something big. dagen: i saw a line buried in a newspaper article earlier this week and it was one of the last sentences in a long article. it says many in congress are talking about 2018 about a tax overhaul. what they are saying in washington, d.c. is going to filter through to a market that is priced to perfection. gary: you know i respect you as an investor. cheapest asset out there right now is protection. and what the assets of buying is expensive. you bite etf right now you are paying a lot of money. when the s & p in 2009, everybody was buying understand.
now nobody is buying insurance. charles: i would make it a small portion my portfolio. i think the notion of trying to pin point a top might be lling. what did we learn this earnings season? growth has accelerated since november 31st last year. when management said from toll brothers out of coral gables, florida, when you listen to what these companies are telling you, you can argue the rally could go on for a long time. they are beginning to happen. you want them to come up. trish: that's how optimism works. they act on their own. their own feeling, a better
>> announcer: from fox busiss headquarters in new york city, "wall street week." gary: welcome to "wall street week," i'm gary kaminsky. trish rsh -- trish: i'm trish regan. >> to accomplish our goaments ao accomplish our goals we have to make it easier for businesses to do business in the united states. i'm asking all members of congress