tv Maria Bartiromos Wall Street FOX Business July 4, 2018 6:00am-7:01am EDT
the cure to stigma is love. and the cure to disease is treatment. join us as we walk into the dawn of a new day. together, we are stronger than addiction. learn more at shatterproof.org/riseup ♪ >> from the u.s. treasury department in washington, d.c., this is special edition of maria bartiromo's "wall street." maria: happy, weekend. welcome to a special one hour edition of "wall street." program analyzes week that was helps position you for the week ahead. i'm maria bartiromo. today coming you from the cash room of the u.s. treasury department in washington. i've got a huge lineup, some of the countries top leaders on the economy and fiscal policy coming up on the program. coming up treasury secretary steve mnuchin will be here, plus later on in the hour, president trump's national economic council director larry kudlow here, along with the advisor and daughter to the president, ivanka trump is here. along with the office of
management and budget director, mick mulvaney all coming up. we have extended preview of my exclusive one-on-one interview with president donald trump. >> big thing i'm focused on i have to straighten out trade deals. maria: this marks the six-month anniversary of the of trump tax cuts, first major reform to the tax code in more than 30 years of the legislation had an incredible impact on the economy. i spoke with treasury secretary steve mnuchin about the tax plan six months later and much more. >> we couldn't be happier with the progress that we've made. but we still have more to do. and i think you saw yesterday, i was pleased to be with the president in wisconsin. here is perfect example of bringing advanced manufacturing back to the united states. this never would have occurred, if it wasn't for the tax cuts and for us changing from an international system that was broken to a very competitive tax system that now works for business and works for hard-working americans. maria: last time i spoke with you, i told you about people
saying look, two years, things will slow down quite considerably. you said, i don't see that. in terms of rates going higher, interest rates, a little inflation here and there, we see oil prices are, we see products are in terms of consumer goods are, they're moving higher in price, are you worried that cuts into the growth numbers you're seeing? >> i'm not worried. maria, put this in perspective. first of all, a year-and-a-half ago we were talking about 3% growth, everyone was laughing saying that was impossible. now we're talking about getting a gdp number that is 4% or higher. much the atlanta fed is pushing, could be as high as 4.7. we see this growth, we'll have sustained growth. we've been very clear, the plan is 3% or higher sustained growth. as it relates to inflation? a little bit of inflation is a good thing. the fed actually been for a while targeting higher inflation. obviously during the campaign one of the things we've been very focused on is wage growth.
great financial markets for the last eight years. no wage growth for the last eight years. you can check that off the box. we've now, thanks to president trump's economic plan, we're seeing wage growth. we'll see. i think inflation will be under control but that is something we've got to be careful to watch. maria: one uncertainty as you know, tariffs and trades, according to markets and individuals looking at back and forth, tit-for-tat, you've been leading charge in terms of beijing and our relationship there. you talked a lot about the investment restrictions that we were expecting are not happening. give us a status check what is going on with china and the united states. are we in a trade war? >> we're not in a trade war. we're in a trade dispute with them. we've been very clear, our objective is to have reciprocal trade. think everybody understands this. we have the most open investment market. the restrictions that we're putting forward through firma this is protecting critical
technology. this is not about doing anything more than that, whether china or anybody else. we will continue to make sure that american workers and american companies get a fair fight in china. that is what this is all about. big opportunity for american companies if we can get this right. maria: i'm glad you mentioned frma and cfius, the group tracking foreign investments in the u.s., in terms of making sure that china doesn't continue stealing our technology or is there no answer to that? >> no, there is an answer to that. okay? whether it is china or anybody else, wee been working with congress over the last six months. we couldn't be more pleased. this passed in the house 400-2. think of that. if that is not bipartisan, what is? maria: right. >> this is something everybody agrees on. we want to protect united states critical technology and we're going to. that is not directed at china. that is directed at everybody. whether they are joint ventures,
whether export controls we will make sure the crown jewels of american technology are protected. maria: i think most people do get that you're right. people know china has been stealing our intellectual property and forcing this transfer of technology but what about the aluminum and steel tariffs, secretary mnuchin? people are wondering, yes, we get issue on china, but why put tariffs on all of our allies, if you really want to get to china why not team up with the allies all agree together we want to make sure to stop china from its wrongdoing? >> well, let me first comment we are working with our allies. i was with the g7 finance ministers meeting, this issue we discussed importance to you will of the g7. the second thing i would say is, the president was very clear he wanted to protect the steel and aluminum industry that are critical to the u.s.? very unfair, we put tariffs on, okay that were very specifically
designed. we've been very careful. we put quotas on certain countries. we've been careful negotiating deals. we negotiated a lot of deals. i think it is very unfair that the eu has responded with tariffs on other things. they have done that. it is politically-motivated. if they object to our steel tariffs, that is something they should go through the wto and others but they do not have the right to respond in a political fashion and hurt our farmers and our critical other areas. maria: yeah. i mean i guess the issue keeps coming back what do you have, how many employees in the aluminum and steel industries versus steel and aluminum importing industries. talking about 6 1/2 million jobs versus 130,000 jobs. is it worth putting tariffs on all these countries, when in fact these two industries are a lot smaller than industries using steel and aluminum and importing it, paying the
tariffs? >> maria, let me be clear. the economic team and the president understand these issues very carefully. we're not going to let this hurt economic growth. that we're going to be very careful but the president is determined to negotiate free trade. and by the way, it is not coincidental you saw the first time a butch of german car companies saying to their government, lobbying to reduce tariffs, to zero. that didn't occur out of coincidence. that occurred because the president was fighting for our car companies, american industries. all of sudden they're willing to drop their tariffs. let everybody drop their tariffs. maria: that's a great point. you just mentioned wto. "axios" is reporting that the president wants to withdraw from the world trade organization. your reaction? >> maria, there is no breaking news. anybody reporting "axios" is breaking news. that is not right. i won't use our favorite word -- maria: fake news.
>> fake news. this is exaggeration. the president has been clear with us, with others, he has concerns about the wto. he thinks there is aspects of it that are not fair. he thinks china and others used it to their own advantage but we are focused on free trade. that's what we're focused on, breaking down barriers. maria: don't go anywhere, more of my interview with treasury secretary steve mnuchin is coming up next. larry kudlow, ivanka trump, mick mulvaney, a sneak peek of my interview with president trump, [music playing] (vo) from the beginning, wells fargo has supported community organizations like united way, non-profits like the american red cross, and our nation's veterans. we knew helping our communities was important then. and we know it's even more important today. so we're stepping up to volunteer more and donate over a million dollars every day. so our communities can be even stronger. it's a new day at wells fargo.
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♪ maria: welcome back to our special one hour edition of "wall street." more of my interview with treasury secretary steve mnuchin. the left likes to say, look, this was a corporate giveaway. you cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and so, you know, this is not helping others but you see where the unemployment rate is of course.
tell us your notion for the importance of lowering that corporate rate. why was that so important and what impact has it had? >> maria i traveled with the president during the campaign. this goes back we literally met with tens of thousands of people. we met with small business, we met with big business. we heard two critical things. police cut regulation, allow us to do business and give us competitive tack code. if we can compete fairly the united states will win, and we will see products made in the usa. advanced manufacturing coming back to wisconsin. that's a result of the president fighting for hard-working taxpayers. and creating a level playing field. so that is what this is all about. the creating a system that works for business. by the way, small business, pass-through rates the lowest since the 1940s. maria: wow. were you surprised all bonuses it triggered? you had companies giving out
bonuses we want to do something with savings? >> we weren't surprised by that. we were surprised by the growth and were surprised by number of companies came out automatically rewarded their workers. that is just the beginning. >> what do you mean it is just the beginning? what else will happen? i asked you how long the runaway is? what are you looking at in terms of metrics to make you feel like, yes this, is still working? >> i think gdp is the number one indicator. we're looking at the unemployment rate. when you look at the unemployment rate you have to look at that also in context with the participation rate. maria: right. >> we want to increase the participation rate. we want to make sure people who gave up looking for good jobs come back into the workforce. but as the president has said, jobs, jobs, jobs. maria: so were you surprised we didn't get a great gdp number yesterday? first quarter is usually weaker than the other quarters. expecting better second
second quarter. alan greenspan was with me we know we'll get strong second quarter but what was wrong with the first quarter? >> it was seasonal issue. whether 2.0 or 2.2. our objective sy here than three. the revision in my mind was not material. we're looking forward. we're not looking backwards. maria: are there areas in terms of industry seeing impact more than others? technology, health care, which linda mcmahon mentioned earlier, what areas do you see responding the most or is it across the board? >> i think it is across the board. one of the things i was very impressed by yesterday when i went to wisconsin i knew about bringing flat panels back into manufacturing in the united states. i didn't realize until i got there yesterday they're creating advanced medical devices. so i got to witness advanced medical machine radiology, surgical radiology. there was all different types of aspects of advanced medicine that they're now going to manufacture those types of
equipments here in the usa. maria: secretary, the new 1040 tax form has been released. supposed to make it a lot easier for individuals to file taxes. we wanted to show it. how does it make it easier? >> as promised we said there would be a postcard sized form. we delivered on that. many americans will fill out the simple form. this was really about simplification for hard-working taxpayers and doing it. whether they do it electronically or whether they do it through this form, this is about simplification. maria: my thanks to treasury secretary steve mnuchin. our very special treasury department edition of "wall street" returns right after this, after that, larry kudlow, ivanka trump will more and more people are finding themselves in a chevy for the first time. now you can too during the chevy 4th of july sales event. now through july 9, get 10 to 20 percent below msrp
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♪ maria: president trump continues to tout a strong economy and the stock market, even as his trade and tariffs policies have added a bit of a degree of uncertainty and an edge. he is not backing down. he seems confident that the united states will come through these tensions with better deals and even stronger economy. i spoke to the president about that and a lot more. let me ask you about what's next because we've seen the impact to the economy. what do you want to see happen now? does the economy need even more stimulus? are you looking for phase two tax cuts? >> we're doing a phase two. we'll be doing it probably in october, maybe sooner than that. maybe more for the middle class. we did a lot more for middle class. this will be aimed at middle class. one of the things we're thinking about is bringing the 21% down to the 20. for the most part the rest foes to the middle class. it's a great stimulus. one of the things you've been
reporting on i'm not sure tur a believer, look what is happening to the steel companies, they're expanding, they're going wild. we need steel, we need aluminum and we need solar panels. same thing with solar panels t was a dead business. we did a 30% tariff because they were dumping all over the place. washing machines, doesn't sound glamorous, but actually a big business, if you look what happened to steel and aluminum, we practically built a new industry in period of four or five months. it is incredible what is happening. i have to straighten out trade deals. maria, we have trade deals, as an example with china. we don't have a trade deal with china. nobody bothered to make a deal. they will charge 25% for a car and we charge 2 1/2%. you used the numbers on your show so i don't want to bore people but we have a, we have the worst trade deals in the world. we lose money with everybody. when somebody says how much we lose with this country? we use lose with everybody.
we'll make it reciprocal and make it fair. i will tell you, you don't know about this, every country is calling every day, let's make a deal, let's make a deal. it will all work out. >> markets feel like they're trusting you at this point. >> they trust me and farmers trust me. maria: they do. >> i won all the farmers. look at the map. it has a little blue on the outside, everything else is red and beautiful color red. i have to say that if you look at what's happened with farms, over 15 years, it is just a steady decline. over the last -- i've been here year-and-a-half. over the last five years, they have been very bad years for farms and farmers. i said we have to change that. one of the reasons is because they have barriers. these are not even economic barriers. although in canada's case, 275% tariff for terri. that's not fair. maria: when would you expect your most significant deal? >> well i already pretty much finished the deal with south korea. it was a terrible deal. remember it was going to produce
200,000 jobs. they were right, for south korea, not for us that was a hillary clinton special. that's done. nafta i could sign it tomorrow but i'm not happy with it. i want to make it more fair, okay? maria: you can't do nafta before the midterms? >> i want to after the election. you have a election will be very interesting. i have a feeling he will be fine. if they're not fine, i will tax their cars coming into america, that's the big one. the cars are the big one. we can talk steel, everything, but the big thing is cars. maria: a major lobbying group for the auto industry said your administration threatened 25% tariff on all imported vehicles will amount to $45 billion in taxes on consumers and wipe out any benefits of the tax cut plan for low and middle income americans? >> will, actually it is 20%. tell them to get their numbers right. what will really happen, there will be no tax. you know why? they will build their cars in america. they will make them here. we bring in millions and
millions of cars a year. we charge 2 1/2%. some of these countries don't even take our cars. if we want to send general motors or any of our companies to some of these countries they won't take our cars. they put up a barrier. non-monetary barrier. they call it non-monetary tariff. the barrier is so strong you can't sell a car. if you do sell a car it is 10%, 15%, 25%. we get 2 1/2% and nobody pays it. maria: do you agree that a tariff is a sales tax? i mean even steve forbes on my show last week, he said, look for every job you're creating in aluminum and steel industry you're losing 15 in the industries that import aluminum and steel because it is a sales tax. >> first of all i love free trade. when i was at the g7, i have an idea, everybody guarranty we do i had immediately. nobody pay more tax, take down barriers, no barriers, no tax. everybody, are you all set? no more taxes. >> don't go anywhere, larry kudlow coming up on this
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to learn more. ♪ maria: welcome back. it has been six months since president trump signed the tax cuts and jobs act into law. larry kudlow was not in the administration when the plan was passed. but a big advocate and advisor before it was passed to the president. white house national economic director. he is bullish on the economy, stock market and president's position on tariffs and trade. >> actually, if anything, it has come on faster and stronger. it is a very healthy economy right now. folks say it couldn't be done. you know, gdp, may be an abstract number, but a good measure of overall economy. a lot of our critics said you could never be 2%. we're now beating 3%. we're on an up swing coming up when the numbers come out for the second quarter and i think it is going to hold up. stock markets may be slightly
off the high, had a fabulous run as an indicator. look, one of the great things about president trump, he stuck to it. you know, steve moore, myself,. maria: art laffer. >> art laffer, treasury secretary steve mnuchin, be on for you in a little while, we work together very closely during the campaign. friends of mine, skeptics said no, no, he will not follow through. he has followed through. he never flinched, not once, we got the legislation through. the economy is responding. this is now the usa according to the oe cd, the hottest economy in the world. maria: congratulations. >> money, capital investment for new jobs and better careers, flowing in from all corners of the world. maria: the left and the detractors, the skeptics likes to say, this was a giveaway to corporations. it was very important to you to lower the corporate rate.
>> yes. maria: that corporate rate coming from 35% to 21% is huge. why was that so important in terms of seeing the impact that it did, that had lots of legs everywhere, not just the corporate sector? >> you're quite right. look, we were at, not competitive. our larger corporations, our middle sized companies. i want to also add the smaller businesses had huge benefits from this overall tax bill, including not only drop in corporate rates but also the 100% immediate expensing of new plant and equipment, which, follow me on this, is stimulating capital goods and investment spending. i was just yesterday, in my office, had a visit from the ceo of chevron. he is pouring $25 billion into the economy. that's a huge number. maria: by the way the oil story is part of this. >> fantastic. again from investment, comes the jobs and the careers and as president trump said, low
unemployment rate. let me make this generic point. we said this, my pal kevin hassett running cea, the war against business is over. the war against success is over. the war against energy is over. the president has an attitude, take a swing at the ball. take risks. that what makes america great. and, that attitude has translated as you know, into huge increases in the confidence indexes. maria: sure. >> consumers, small businesses, large businesses. >> there is a narrative, larry, going out there, in two years things slow down quite a bit because of demographics, high every interest rates. robert kaplan from the dallas federal reserve, growth at end of '19, 1 3/4%. what do you say of people possibly looking for recession in 2020? >> i don't want to comment specifically on mr. kaplan or
anybody else for that matter, all i've been saying that all along, okay? we could never get to 3% growth. my friends, good friends on the democratic side, he has come on my show, they are personal friends of mine, it couldn't be done they say. maria: right. >> it's being done. probably coming on faster. and it is throwing off enormous amount of new tax revenues. as the economy gears up, more people working, better jobs and careers, those revenues come rolling in, and the deficit, which is one of the other criticisms, is coming down. and it is coming down rapidly. growth solves a lot of problems. you heard me say it. maria: of course. what's your expectation what comes next? are you working on a phase two, where you make the personal cuts permanent and expensing in terms of corporates? >> i don't want to get into inises just yet. we're talking a lot about it. the president would like to see
tax reform 2.0. some of the leaders on the hill, kevin brady we're all discussing it. we'll wait for specifics to be released later in the year. may be more of a guideline, a directional signal what we intend to do, but yeah there is stuff we can do. i hope we get to it. let's make the tax system more efficient. let's make it simpler. make it more powerfully growth oriented. this is old-fashioned supply-side econmics. let me hold that point. maria: does the fed understand that. the fed is talking about four interest rate hikes. will they blow it and raise rates too much? >> my hope the fed under new management understands that more people working and faster economic growth do not cause inflation. do not cause inflation. what our program is, we're expanding the economy's potential to growth. that is the new equipment. that is the new structures. that is the new technology we're
doing, and therefore, therefore, that can not be inflation nary. don't tell somebody up in the rust belt, don't tell somebody in the middle of the country, that working and growing is a bad idea. that is not possible. that violates common sense. my hope is, you know, i speak to jay powell periodically. i think he is a good man. my hope they understand that, they will move very slowly. maria: there is the fed, there is trade. james freeman commenting outside of this building there is sign 1842 the webster-ashburn treaty signed with canada, signed in this building and it was a total partnership. are we going to have more partnerships with canada, or will we have fights over trade and growth? >> i was there when that was signed absolutely there. maria: 1842. >> i remember very well. didn't like it very much to be honest with you. very quick, let me say one thing quickly about trade, you will
hear a lot about it. president trump in my view will go down as the greatest trade reformer decades and decades. the system is broken. the tariff walls and non-tariff barriers and subsidies have gone up around the world and his vision has always been a free trade vision. but to get there, as he set up in the g7 meetings, i was with him in north of quebec, canada, let's be tariff-free. let's be non-tariff barrier free. maria: are you saying aluminum and steel tariffs are just negotiating ploy and not permanent? >> i will let him make the decisions on this and make the policies. what i do know, he has a vision of free and open trade. and i believe as someone who followed this for a very long time, the world trading system is broken, okay? china is probably the biggest offender in my judgment but others are guilty too. we should be able to do
business. we should be able to come through with successful deals. maybe it will be incremental. maybe it will be big bang, but everybody knows, i talk to these heads of state up in quebec. everybody knows the system is broken. maria: right, everybody admits it is totally lop sided. >> the president is the first guy not only to say it but do something about it. he had the backbone to do it. i say to people, my friends on wall street, elsewhere, don't blame president trump, blame china and others for violating system and its rules. maria: my thanks to larry kudlow. don't go anywhere. ivanka trump will join us neck in an exclusive interview when "wall street" comes right back
often harsh, inappropriate criticism directed at her. she is very involved in policies at white house, tax policy, among others. i sat down with ivanka trump at the treasury department. she sun phased by the haters and focused on getting things done for american families. >> it is remarkable. it is the tax plan in conjunction with the economic gypped today of the administration more generally. deregulation and all the other actions taken to really release the animal spirits of the economy and business. we see that in record levels of optimism. but the tax cuts was really the core of that economic agenda. we were, we were incredibly excited to see even in these incredibly early days, we're marking a six-month anniversary, the millions of people that have been directly benefited. that is only going to continue to grow. one of the sleepers of tax cuts
is 100% capital expensing. we see it he have single day in terms of amount people invest in their businesses. they're becoming more competitive. they're more able to compete in the global landscape. families experience relief, doubling of child tax credit which is enormously important to american families and working families as the cost of raising children has gone up so dramatically, yet for so long until recently, wages have all been stagnant. it is a very exciting time and i think we see it manifested in the optimism of the american worker and of the american small business and large business. maria: why was the child tax credit so important to you? i know you were a big influence there. a lot of people debated it, saying this will cost a lot, we could put the money towards changing tax rate for carried interest or putting it elsewhere in terms of state and local tax deductions going away? >> it is incredibly important to
the president and this administration to insure that any tax plan that was proposed accomplished two goals. one to insure middle income tax relief. one to enable our businesses to be competitive and to thrive in the global landscape. obviously lowering corporate rate from 35% to 21% has created, enabled us to be competitive globally but the child tax credit was a tremendous vehicle to being able to deliver on our promise to middle income, hard-working taxpayers. maria: because it is expensive to raise a family. >> it is greatest investment we can make as a country. maria: there is issue in this country of civility. i want to get your take. you like all of us and others have been victims. samantha bee using this horrible language about you. kathy griffin holding a head, bloody head, peter fond today, robert de niro, what is your take and reaction what samantha
bee said about you? >> for me i never allow myself to forget the extraordinary privilege i have to serve this country. and i try to stay focused on, on that, and on executing and on the long term and trying to maintain my focus on my personal signals. so i have chosen and i made a conscientious decision a long time ago that i was not going to get into the fray. that means that i will absorb the body boys that come my way but, it is important to me to focus on the task at hand which is serving the american people and using this moment in my life to advance an agenda i deeply believe in and feel very fortunate to work on tax reform is an exact example of that. so while it ended up being partisan, it wasn't for lack of effort. we met with countless democrat
lawmakers. i had them to my home, visited them in their offices. there are many bipartisan things. maria: look at sarah sanders getting kicked out of a restaurant the other night with their family. what do you do about that? how do we make this stop? >> i think that the energy and the passion can be good and in other cases it's totally counterproductive. we're seeing examples of both of that every single day where the energy on both the left and the right are encouraging and pushing positive reforms and positive change. and where the reaction disintegrates into lack of civility and hostility, lack of respect for alternate viewpoints. maria: yeah. >> lack of ability to have dialogue. so many of these issue, when you have really, you know, when you
think about the complications of the issues we're dealing with and grappling with as a country, they often can't be distilled into simple sentence or talking point. so you need to foster opportunities for dialogue. i have worked really hard to find people here in washington and around the country who are interested in engaging in meaningful dialogue on issues that i care about. maria: you care about child tax credit, for example. you've been a voice for families. were you -- >> i care about workforce development. i care about paid family leave. maria: were you a voice, whisperer in your father's ear in terms of families separated at the border? melania, obviously our first lady, was very moved by it, went to the border twice. did you also say something to him before he signed the executive order? >> of course. i have very strong opinions on that topic. maria: my thanks for ivanka trump joining us today. don't go anywhere. [music playing] (vo) from the beginning,
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♪ maria: welcome back to this special one-hour edition of "wall street." we're coming to you today from the cash room of the u.s. treasury department in washington. very historic room. mick mulvaney and kevin hassett are two of the architects of landmark legislation known as the tax cuts and job act i spoke with him about the impact of tax cuts and how to finally get our debt and deficit under control. >> if we look at the economic data the big thing that we see is that the capital spending explosion we predicted would happen which ultimately will benefit workers because jobs are coming home and wages go up when there is more capital is happening already. when you look at foreign direct investment it skyrocketed in first quarter because not only american firms putting money
back to work in the u.s. foreign firms as well. >> mick, do you add to that. >> everybody looks at government now, they're not out to get us and stick it to us. they will let us succeed and prosper without getting in our way. that is why consumer confidence up, business confidence up. foreign investors have more confidence in the united states. it is exactly what we hoped it would be. maria: throughout the whole process people kept saying how do you pay for this? you kept getting question all of the time in terms of one trillion dollar deficits we're seeing. what can you tell the american public about that, how worried are you about it? >> the still worried about it, anytime you look at 20 trillion-dollar in debt. we took in half a trillion dollars in single month. largest take by united states treasury in history. we don't think that has anything to do with the tax bill yet, because the tax bill hadn't been in place. that was the growth came in the previous year, largely from the deregulation. just the fact the president was the president, not president
obama in office. >> can i add one thing about the revenue too? if you look at corporate side, there is individual side where workers got pay cuts or tax cuts and then there is a corporate side. the corporate side only costs 400 billion according to the joint tax committee. right now the 10-year revenue estimates are more corporate tax revenue coming in than they thought a year ago. the idea that the corporate tax cuts would pay for themselves seems to be in the data already. when you look at the democrat opponents, cite overall costs, 1.4 trillion, that the overall giveaway to the rich. 700 billion was refundable child credit, something in the past had broad bipartisan support gives money to families. the thing that did increase the deficit so far was the refundable child credit, 700 billion to that, which is something, social justice concerns, that maybe people want to vote for that. but again the talking point of the democrats that the corporate tax cuts burn ad hole in the
deficit. that is false. that is not consistent with the data. >> we saw this work first quarter was softer in terms of growth than we thought, to your point capital expenditure a little better than we thought. we're looking at second quarter, some of these regional fed banks, saying 3, 4%, growth. some private economists saying 5% growth. maria: atlanta fed, 4.7%. >> this is hitting fives the president talked about occasionally. should we be curbing our enthusiasm or is this pretty good right now. >> gdp data, look at year-over-year data. so the quarter number doesn't get me too excited. the odds of year-over-year number north of 3%, second quarter are four, four 1/2, odds are 80 to 90%. that is 3% hissing to rick growth that something democrats said president trump couldn't do. >> we didn't think we would be
3% annual growth for at least a year, two years, so we're ahead of schedule that everybody said was way too optimistic to begin with. i gave the speech, pulled a quote from paul krugman, introduced the first time in march of 17, you could make him dictator of country and could not get him to 3%. >> that is scary thought. maria: paul krugman, election night, when will markets come back? never. >> you had a slightly different take that evening as i recall. maria: yes, i did. >> you have to stop at some point listening to people. >> if there is something historically almost unprecedented which happened, growth has come in above our forecasts. that never happens at the start of an administration. remember the obama team came in, there were 4% growth, 5% growth estimates that they said we would get as soon as we got clash for clunkers passed. those things didn't happen. maria: james and i talking about during the commercial break, there was so much anticipation what you were doing, corporate tax cut, people started spending
money, companies started unleashing money before. that is the big run-up. >> that's right. >> that and dereg. let's not forget about that. impact on the economy of the president's efforts to deregulate and dramatic, they have been quicker, we can do a lot without congressional intervention. that is flowing through the system right now. i think you're starting to see impact of the tax cut. >> there is one other little thing, interesting thing for data wonks like maria, because you could deduct the cost of buying a machine, you could expense it in the fourth quarter, the bill was retroactive, all of sudden firms saw i buy the machine now, deduct at 35%, and then 21% so they piled a whole bunch of. when investment was high in the first quarter as well, that meant we started capital spending boom. >> so far so good. take a victory lap on the tax cut, investment resulted.
we're still not seeing job creation we'd like to. are you expecting that? >> i'm sorry? maria: we are at 3.8% unemployment. >> businesses can't find workers they need. >> that's right fine. >> job creation of people coming off the sidelines, maybe they were discouraged during the obama years. maybe, maybe they are in situation where they're looking for the right flexibility in a job, but do you see that picking up as we go along? >> in fact i do. you started to see it already. one of the reasons we have the growth without inflation. folks are coming back into the market. the number i've seen, 600,000 folks coming back into the job market. you're starting to to see that. >> i'm like the president looking forward to the next jobs release. when we jobs release come out we'll redo the estimate. last time we dot estimate, 900,000 people have a job that were out of the labor force when president trump was elected. >> my thanks to mick mulvaney.
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holiday. we'll see retailer bon-ton report its quarterly numbers. tuesday we look at auto sales as well as factory orders. important to see what auto sales are doing in environment of higher tariffs. stock market shortened session. closes one p.m. ahead of the july 4th holiday on wednesday. markets are closed on wednesday for july 4th. happy independence day, everybody. when business resumes on thursday. a lot of data to sift through for investors. employment data, eia petroleum status, energy inches information institute. we'll get ism index and what was said at last fed meeting. friday the june jobs report. tune into maria with jobs in america special coverage. fox business, 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. eastern. on political it will be a quiet week for capitol hill. both house and senate are on recess for the holiday.
we'll look ahead following week when they return to session. that does it for us this weekend. thanks for joining me. see you next time. the special one hour edition of "wall street" from the treasury department in washington concludes. pictures too. happy 4th a little early. good sunday morning now my exclusive sit-down interview with president trump. the president talks tough on trade, slams the democrats over immigration and their push to abolish i.c.e. and he hints at who he may nominate to be the next supreme court justice. good morning, everyone. thank you very much for joining me this morning. i'm maria bartiromo. welcome to "sunday morning futures". justice kennedy announces his retirement, sparking a fierce political battle on capitol hill and across the country about his replacement. president trump now getting another historic opportunity to reshape the high court and affect key issues including roe versus wa