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tv   Cavuto Coast to Coast  FOX Business  November 5, 2018 12:00pm-2:00pm EST

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the senate stays republican. republicans pick up three or four seats. stuart: i will go the other way. i think republican cost keep the house by a very slim majority, think they can keep it and extend, win another two or three seats in the senate. i think market goes straight up on wednesday morning. >> i like your version. stuart: how is that for a prediction, neil cavuto? neil: here is what should make you run the other way? that is my prediction. i think it will not go to consensus. i think you're right. we'll see what happens. so run the other way, young man. obviously not that far away from the beginning of the 2018 midterms. everyone is poised to see what could happen. those are the scenarios stuart laid out. split government, democrats seize the house that is very good for the market as well. we'll explore that in the next two hours here. but again you heard the consensus. you heard what stuart had to say breaking from that.
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a lot of people say 23 seats would be under the gains you have to see to see the house switch. maybe they just hold it to that or under. get the read from the white house where the president will be very busy campaigning no fewer than three states. blake burman at the white house with all of his travel plans. blake. reporter: president trying to keep the economy in the home front coming down to the final hours of the election. saw him make four stops, florida, georgia, tennessee, montana. in each of those he started by touting the economy, jobs numbers. we'll probably get another dose of that today, as the president will make three different stops, ohio, then it is off to indiana. he will end in missouri later this evening. the president held a teleconference with supporters. he contented if democrats gain control of capitol hill tuesday
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night into wednesday, you will not want toe look at the stock market the next day. here is the president a little while ago. >> the markets have been very good. they have been very strong. they really -- i tell you the potential is tremendous. unless we don't do well in the election. i mean the election tomorrow is very vital because it is really is summing up what we've done. it will show confidence for what we've done. reporter: always interesting to see where a president decide to go down the homestretch. president trump will head, leave the white house in 30, 40 minutes or so first stop ohio. then indiana, missouri. those last two states, neil, will be the second time in the past week the president has been there. there are two really, really close senate races. indiana, democrats are trying to hold on to the seats. the polls show it is within a point in both of those states, maybe we'll see if the president can make a difference down the homestretch or not.
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neil? neil: will certainly give it the old effort. thank you very much, blake burman. what is at stake for tomorrow. a.b. stoddard, "real clear politics" associate editor. we have jessica tarlov, fox news contributor. john thomas, republican strategist, pollster. ab, spell it all out. there are a few scenarios this would go. what are you looking for someone who examines the political landscape. i can remember covering michael dukakis in 1988. he had huge crowds in 1988. that didn't materialize into anything. donald trump did get large crowds, that did mean something in 2016 so what do you look at? >> i don't look at crowds, neil. anyone can get a big crowd. beto o'rourke gets a lot of big crowds but he never touched ted cruz in polling. what i am most concerned with the fact people will look at polling, no matter the outcome
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and say the polling was wrong again. polls are not votes. everyone needs to focus on that. neil: you're right. >> hillary clinton had the edge on november 8th. she had the voters the next morning. they were not in the right places to win the electoral college. the polls are definitely on democrat side. we see that. it has been consistent for entire year. shown up in special elections. doesn't mean it will show up across the country tomorrow. traditionally democrats have not voted in strong numbers in midterm elections. obama's coalition failed him in 2010 and 2014. the fact democrats believe they will turn out latinos in critical places african-americans, young voters in enough force to pick up 30, 35 seats. that sounds great if we wake up with a republican house because polls are not votes. i'm looking turnout how people are mobilized? have we seen interesting anecdotes about new registration in the places that people are running races entirely dependent
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on new and lapse voters, governor rays in florida, governor's race in georgia. i haven't seen it. there are good signs in early voting good for the democrats in turnout but we'll know tomorrow. neil: we do have records in early turnout in places like florida, texas. jessica, we saw very strong early turnout numbers in florida in 2016 some gleaned a a hillary lay up and it wasn't. enthusiasm gap had huge advantage. the republican closed to about a point or so. looking at independent voters. look at "abc/washington post" poll yesterday, good thing for ab polls are not votes we get into the polls were wrong trouble, independent voters, dems are down 10 point edge in
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suburban white woman. it was spiked up to 20, 30 points. it has come down as well. that would be additions to core coalition, people brought obama into office and catapulting andrew gillum and stacy abrams in florida and georgia. georgia 6, for instance, where car ren handle sis jon ossoff which is shifting to jon ossoff. democrats could add to wins leaning republican. neil: from the 2016 election, john, early on donald trump racked up a much bigger victory than thought in indiana. a republican always wins there, but it was off the charts big. later on with west virginia, similar sign. i guess two years later what do you look for? what do your colleagues look for could spell good news for republicans or a long night?
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>> well very may be a long night because a lot of the seats that we're looking might be in play are on the west coast. we're looking in orange county, california, where these are traditionally red seats as seats go. neil: by 10:00 you will have gotten through much, you should have an idea whether that even matters. >> you're right. i will be watching florida closely. if florida goes, if kentucky, if kentucky goes, some key seats there, that is an indicator. at this point though, polls are not predictive as far as i'm concerned because you're looking at all the races, they are margin of error races. could go either way. neil: 33 within the margin of error, five points. from the campaign side which i live and breathe every day, what do we do today? we're done with polls. what we've been doing, we identified our base weeks ago. we're making sure they get to the polls. it is 100% about turnout because in places like florida and what not, for instance, even in arizona, latino turnout will
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mean everything. traditionally late teen anothers are terrible midterm voters, they're telling pollsters they're excited. does that mean they will go to the polls? neil: does that definitely hurt republican. >> benefits democrats. we're looking a pretty heavy spread against the republicans this cycle but what we know we don't know. neil: let me write that one down. >> we don't know definitely what would happen. to say it will be the blue wave, you would be a fool if you called that. neil: you're absolutely right about that. ab, he touched on it, kentucky, one closely-watched district where the two candidates are dead-even, if that were to tilt democrat it could be preview to coming attractions, do you buy the kind of stuff, what happens in district in one state you can extrapolate that to other swing districts in other states? what do you look for in other words, tomorrow night. >> well, republicans are afraid of most of the swing districts
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and anti-trump energy there, neil, because they are similar. they have more latinos in them, let's say than the average republican house district. they have more levels of education, higher income, minority representation like barbara comstock, virginia 10. she is facing a perfect storm against her. a lot of federal workers. in a lot of these districts you can look at things they have in common and those vulnerable republicans are sharing the same concerns. they face the same liabilities. but you can sometimes. but at the same time we can also look on wednesday morning you know what? democrats came out and they shellacked kevin yoder but didn't come out to take out carlos curbelo in two different states. it depends on good ground game and smart campaign leads from the top in the local race. people knew a long time ago they were facing headwinds, planned accordingly, reached out to independent voters like brian
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patrick in pennsylvania 1, fits patrick, pennsylvania 1, hillary won by one but he won by seven. he cared to make a separation between him and trump. he reached out to his constituents. been a bipartisan person reaching across the aisle. he is incredibly vulnerable still, if he wakes up next day, he lost, democrats in that district said we're not doing a split ticket. that we're voting against all republicans. that will be unfortunate for someone like fitzpatrick. neil: what about young people? always springs eternal, young people will come out in droves. they didn't even do that for barack obama. so i guess what i'm wondering is are they going to come out in droves? >> based on early voting they are. spike in registration from 18 to 29-year-olds in early voting in states like texas where beto is the perfect storm for young voters. florida, georgia as well.
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trend line will suggest they vote more than they usually do but -- neil: i know, every single poll he trails. >> he trails -- he is going to get all the young people but will not get many of the old people. and the reliable republicans, he is down six, seven points, which is closer you would think someone would be in a state like texas, but at the end of the day, a lot of democrats are thinking we have so much money pumped into texas for beto, not that he doesn't deserve it, but people like jackie rosen in nevada has a real chance, krysten sinema in arizona has a real chance who are not getting dollars through act blue, the national giving service going to beto, where today and tomorrow, get-out-the-vote efforts they could use that money. >> young voters depends on state, what is on top of the ticket. in california there is a snooze fest for the governor's race, we're not seeing early return, young voter are not voting.
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unless they misplaced their postage stamps we're not seeing it so far. what that means for down ticket congressional races may not vote for the house. neil: what do you make of the fact the president is far more focused on senate races, sort of like previewing, given up on the house? that i could be wrong, that could be my interpretation and fallout. paul ryan, saying, mr. president, could you please keep talking up the economy and not the caravan and all that, paraphrasing here. but do you worry, the president send as signal when it comes to the house, no mas? >> think couple things, first of all on the senate map the president can be more use to the states where his approvals are great. he is going where the rallies and press coverage he drives actually makes a difference. he also realizes house may be far gone from historical perspective having nothing to do with donald trump. he needs to rack up the senate majority sew has a check what is going on in the house.
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neil: ab, you might have told me this, i took it at my home, where anger resonates more than it would in presidential year. angry voters come out and make sure, come hell or high water they vote. who is angrier in this election year? >> well the democrats are very angry. we've seen it at polling for a long time, more than a year. we did see in new cnn poll this morning 70% of voters say their vote is about trump of likely voters. a rejection of trump. but then again, corey lewandoski, one of the top advisers to the president, vice president, you know what? voters don't come to polls thank you for a tax cut. they come because they're angry. that is why president trump is talking about the caravan, the fact there is chaos. trying to stoke fear about an invasion. he wants people to be angry enough to vote for someone when he is not even on the ballot. >> coy add to that quickly. ab is totally correct. add brett kavanaugh. he is talking about
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brett kavanaugh, because they got a spike in enthusiasm. if you look for economic numbers for donald trump undoubtedly great, 65% are happy with the economy, 620% still don't say they're better off today than when trump came into office. 38% say the country is headed in the right direction. he might not get level of bump from the economy which you expect him to which is why he is talking about illegal immigration. neil: real quick, finally with you, john, he had said, if you want all of that to go away vote democrat. >> remember, trump is changing the traditional republican coalition. yes he is hemorrhaging with college educated whites, they're not, they never thought their industries were being destroyed, they were never told they were obsolete, places in the rust belt, north dakota, the surge ising economy matters to those people. trump is hitting on those points too. neil: if you're happy and content more inclined to to out to the polls? >> absolutely not. you have to create fear.
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the economy will be a boom to president trump in 2020 more than helps him now. >> when he is on the ballot. his name is nowhere to be found. neil: barack obama could deliver the votes when he was on the ballot, not for anyone else when he want? >> true. neil: thank you very, very much. our midterm coverage starts on this fine network 8:00 p.m. tomorrow. lou dobbs will get it in through the hour before. we carry it through. this is the only network we engage real time financial action, asian market reactions, first hint of market reaction. the markets originally tanked two years ago on the notion donald trump would within. within minutes rebounded on the notion he would bring big tax cuts with him. that was then. what happens now? we're all over tomorrow night. go ahead. you can tape and dvr brett and whatever, but watch us. more after this.
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neil: all right, the dow putting in a pretty good day thus far.
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we still have awayses to go. market recouped more than 900 points at our lowest. there is come back sensation. what happens if things go according to consensus tomorrow in the midterms? you know the consensus is roughly this, the house goes democrat, the senate goes republican, gridlock, net-net, good for all involved. there is also the view, again espoused by crackpots, that the democrats just mistaking over house, republicans hang on to the senate, so the trifecta continues. read from nuveen equity strategist, bob doll, one of the smartest financial minds i know. bob, do you read, get into the whole chicken entrails reading and does it affect your strategy one way or another? >> i do, neil, as a hobby. in terms of markets, i don't. we wake up wednesday morning our president is, his name is trump.
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house or senate will be imaginernal one side or the other. i don't think a lot changes. markets wants two things from this president a pro-growth tax bill, check, got it. two, less regulation. ceos talk about that all the time. those two positives will still be with us on wednesday morning. so i don't think it matters a ton for the markets in the near term. neil: then there is the issue of a surprise, right? let's say despite that overwhelming consensus view the house slips and it doesn't, would i think, i'm not casting aspersions here one way or the other, this is largely republican crowd, they identify more with tax cuts, regulatory relief, type of stuff you associate more with republicans than democrats. that might not be accurate but i think it is a fair overall view, that if they got that they would really like it, what do you think? >> yeah. a trifecta you put earlier is at least a modest positive for the
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markets. if democrats take the house as consensus expects, you know all the committee chairs are going to change and all the investigations are going to show up on trump and his third cousin, everybody in between. those headlines won't be fun. i don't think it will affect the economy much at all. it is a positive for the markets if the trifecta continues. neil: i was thinking of you, when i knew you were coming that so many financial types on wall street have given an edge, donations to democrats more than republicans. not by a country mile but by enough it struck me as odd, this president, say what you will of him, has done quite a bit for them, got regulations off their back, got tax cuts lower. in fact record lower, and this is what they're doing with their money. what do you think? >> you know, look i think if you just look at what he's done as
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you just did not hard if the economy and markets are what you want to do well, hard not to think about good things. the people picking on him on wall street it is not about the outcome, process, character, all that good stuff. play your money, take your choices they say. neil: real quickly, with the markets bumping around we're seen, we're 900 points up from the lows more than a week 1/2 ago. do you buy, cooler, calmer heads are prevailing now or do we still have aways to go? >> i'm not convinced we've seen the low but i think we've seen the region of the low. this is about the economy and earnings and fed and interest rates and inflation. and those things have turned just a little more mixed, neil. that is what this is about. but the bull market is not over in my judgment. neil: bob, always good chatting with you. bob doll. >> enjoy. neil: we're looking at couple other developments here, in the middle of everything, economic
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numbers and data keep piling up. ism services index was only slightly down from what, 21 years highs, literally scored just the month before. spotify buying back a billion dollars worth of its stock, those are sort of anecdotal developments people watch whether they're democratic or republican persuasion. now they are bullish factors. how long will the bullish factors hold, after this. ♪ think your large cap equity fund has exposure to energy infrastructure mlps? think again. it's time to shake up your lineup. the alerian mlp etf can diversify your equity portfolio and add potential income.
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7:00 p.m. eastern time. you will see polls closing in virginia, florida, indiana, florida, south carolina. virginia will be one closely scrutinized here because dave brat is in a re-election fight that if it went one way could change the whole complexion of the evening, could set the stage for what could be a long night for the republicans. way too early to say that one way or the other but one getting attention of a lot of folks on both sides of the aisle. edward lawrence in virginia on what he is seeing. reporter: voters in virginia have been talking about this race from grocery stores to the coffee shops. this could be an indication whether republicans retain control of the house of representatives. democrat has not held this seat since the last one retired in 1971. both sides believe it is issues that will bring out their voters n fact the latest poll show this is basically a statistical dead
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heat within the margin of error. the democrat, abigail span berger has packed her schedule with a number of well-publicized events to meet voters. she claims her republican opponent is in hiding. dave brat, the republican opponent is saying that is not true. he is not publicizing his events because he claims democrats are paying protests to harass him. brat says regardless his voters will turn out tomorrow. >> there is a quiet majority out there that is fed up with it and they will turn out tomorrow. reporter: spanberger have number of heavy hitter democrats in her region to campaign for her. senator mark warner. senator tim kaine up for re-election in virginia. we'll have an interview with spanberger later on this afternoon. we'll boil down to which side energizes their voters. republican dave brat believes it
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is the economy. that will bring out the vote. democrat believes health care the republicans are soft on that. will bring out her vote. we're hearing voters will come out and say their vote actually matters this time. they see the race is so close they want to have their voice heard. neil. >> my friend, thank you very, very much. what is going on underneath the surface first hours before voters hit the polls? hard to tell until sometimes until after the fact. what we learned in 1980 a race considered very, very close, almost too close to call even though ronald reagan had the edge was virtually even with he and jimmy carter. we know what happened a few days later. you can extend to the 1994 elections when republicans were expected to do well but not take over the house well. art laffer what he is seeing now. art, what do you think? >> i think you're right, the economy really does matter ultimately. i think people will be a little
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surprised to the election results. take us back to ronald reagan, it was great then. jimmy carter was leading two weeks out. he was ahead in the polls. all of sudden we ended up with 51%. jimmy carter got only 42%. in that one there was spoiler john anderson got 7% in that race. it was off to the races there on. i can't help believe, neil, economics plays a big role. dave brat, he is a very good professional economist. as a politician, having those skills is quite, quite impressive. neil: if you think about it, what irony would be there, he is, the guy who toppled eric cantor is toppled by insurgent democrat different though it might be. >> i know. neil: what kind of things do you look for early results come in, art, that could signify maybe something is registering and something is not? >> you know, what i really do, i look at you guys.
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you and some. other stations. you have terrific analyzing equipment in the back. you can tell very clearly and quickly whether things are going right or not. i just watch you, neil to be honest. neil: very good rule to live by. you are so coming back again. but let me ask you, when in 1994 was going on with bill clinton of course, republicans were expected to do well with the health care debacle and rocky launch. >> yeah. neil: they weren't expected to do 52 seats, 53 seats well. what happened? what happened? >> they signed the tax bill. they increased tax rates. that was a killer. every single incumbent republican running for the senate won. every single republican running for the house won. every single republican running for governor won. it was dumbest thing president clinton did, the tax bill. the tie was broken between the
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democrats, republicans 50-50. al gore broke the tie in the wrong direction. they got mauled by economics. i think economics dominates this place. everyone else disagrees with me. they think it is boring. i think in this election it will be boring. i think republicans pick up a two or four seats in the senate. i've been wrong number times. there is no money back guarranty. i think what you said about the house, there is good shot republicans keep the house. why would anyone vote bense pocketbooks, their jobs, makes no sense. neil: do you find it surprising, not the president is ignoring and the job numbers, he certainly mentions it enough but he certainly spends more time on the hot button issues like the caravan, what have you? even got to the point, paul ryan urged him, mr. president, if you can last few days, keep pounding the jobs, keep telling people,
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democrats take charge all that will go away. i don't know what the president's plans are in the final states, what do you make of the message that the president is sitting on something that is his best story? >> i think real think, the president speaks for so long at these rallies. they're an hour, hour 1/2, two hours long rallies. it is hard to keep mention the same quarterly growth, the same jobs bill all the time. he winnows it down because he needs new material in there. he also said that economics is not as exciting as some of these other issues. you know it may be not exciting but something people really use to vote. they don't need to be told about their good jobs, their higher pay. they know. look at stock market. that is the biggest indicator to me what is going to happen. that decline in the stock market occurred, a couple weeks ago, you know, now is reversing itself because i think people are much more excited about the election. the obama stock market was terrible because everyone knew he would get elected. all the polls, everything
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followed inverse what happened with the stock market they were looking what will be, not what has been. when you look at markets, they make me more enthusiastic, more optimistic about tomorrow and election results, not less. neil: i refer to you on money matters because you're so smart. i think sometimes we overstate their importance of markets on the way up helping a candidate on the way down obviously which don't want them to crash. we learned under herbert hoover we don't want that to happen under their watch. >> other way around. neil: what did you think of the surveys that show a lot of investment professionals, brokers big money banks, disproportionate number of those guys and women, i should say are giving money to democrats? >> they don't have principles of government that we do. you can buy favors from these people and you can't with republicans in general. neil: that is a weird thing.
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that is largely republican crowd. they like money. whatever you think of the president he is helped them make a lot of money. this is how they repay him? >> there is not a republican out there that doesn't want a favor, unfortunately. there is not a democrat -- neil: or a democrat. >> or a democrat. how do you get a special favor? when you see goldman sachs people hanging around with the president. it is not to explain what poverty is like, it is to get a favor from him, a writeoff from him. if you saw types of pressures we faced in this tax bill of just getting this, that, the other thing in there, oh, my god, they all wanted a little bit of favors. democrats are much more willing to do that stuff than republicans. neil: we shall see. art, thank you very, very much. >> neil, great to see you. thanks for having me on. i will be watching you all day tomorrow. neil: excellent, excellent. let's get this guy booked again, guys. i should let you know, it is a little nervy, if you think of the wall street community that
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bemoans government spending, i want you to go back to the meltdown. they had no problem being bailed out to the tune of a trillion plus dollars. that was fine. bailing their sorry asses out was fine, anyone else is not fine. keep that in mind whether you're republican or democrat, about who butters whose bread. after this.
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reporter: neil, the candidates are still neck-and-neck. immigration is still the number one issue on the campaign trail as the president makes his way around the country in his final blitz before election day. both candidates here addressing the caravan today, even though it is still weeks away from showing up at the border. we went door knocking with the republican candidate for senate, representative martha mcsally, in prescott, arizona. it was clear immigration is not just a local issue here, it is personal. one neighbor tracked down mcsally to stop the flood of drugs coming over the border. two teenage boys died last two days from opioid overdoses. she is doing everything she can to secure the border. the democrat in the race, representative kyrsten sinema is pushing to make health care the for front of her campaign. she realizes something needs to be done about the border. she supports troops being
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supplied to help the dhs. she said the priority should not be troops, but judges at border to process as many asylum cases as possible. mcsally tells me additional troops that are there now may be a long term situation. >> how long do the troops stay? do you think this is a long-term situation? >> maybe until the democrats stop obstructing this is important mission. border security is national security. our military often supports our agencies to keep our country safe. i would ask the democrats, get off the sidelines, listen to the american people. they want our border secure. reporter: neil, polls close 7:00 p.m. tomorrow. arizona is early voting state. so a lot of people have voted. neil: record numbers. thank you, hillary vaughn. back to the caravan, or should say caravans, four strong we're told making their way to the u.s.-mexico border.
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obviously a very big issue for president of the united states. a wedge issue. that democrats say president is taking advantage of fears here. whatever you think on the subject, that is a hot issue. to the border patrol president. how will the caravan be greeted once it arrives? what is the policy of this country when they do arrive? >> it comes down to the laws and the law obviously says once they ask for asylum you have to go through the process, provide them with judges, asylum officers and go from there. that is where the issue has been that for a long time now these individuals, when they asked for asylum, they get released into the country. so the military down there is going to be a huge help because it will help the agency cover certain areas that they may be distracted and at the same time, a lot of these drug cartels can, want to bring their garbage into the united states. it is huge to have him down
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there. neil: guards already there or i'm sorry, i.c.e. officials already there, how is, who is running the show? >> well, i would like to think that the president is running the show, right but obviously you have to go through the department of homeland security and people in charge there. i have not been given any different direction. i haven't seen it. i have talked to some agents out there. there has really been no new direction, other than the military is coming down to give us some support. as far as different type of direction i haven't heard of it. i haven't seen it. agents i have spoken to says no other direction has been given. i believe tomorrow will be a big day. tomorrow is very, very important because the security of our country should have nothing to do with what party you represent. but unfortunately we all know that there is one specific party that cares about the security, cares about the future.
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i think a lot of individuals out there, american voters really need to pay attention and think, do you care more about, you know, your country, or do you care more about being upset with one particular person in a party? that is the reality. you need to vote for what needs to be done. neil: be careful, art, not as if democrats don't care at all. i guess what i'm asking you, why doesn't the president order it, you mentioned before we have record numbers of legal immigrants arriving, getting processed through green cards and et cetera. it is expected to be point of 1.2 million. calendar year we're in. i'm wondering, why he and others don't mention that? there is a legal process. record numbers getting citizenship going about the legal and right way when in fact others will point out this to be unfair treatment when it fact it has been very fair, taking legal
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method, the legal route, what do you think? >> i think a lot of it has to do, when you have thousands and thousands of people entering different countries by force and by different countries, they entered into mexico by force. we all saw the videos. they're making their way to the united states. that is what a lot of people are focusing on. there is a actually right way to do things and legal way to do things. that they could apply for asylum in their country. they don't want to do it. they have been allowed to in bra the law. there has been nobody enforcing laws against them. catch-and-release still going on. if you don't have consequences for breaking the law, what reason do you have to stop breaking the law? neil: we'll watch closely, art. that he very, very much. this caravan at the route they're going, four group strong, you never know, they whittle down, mexico offered to make 3,000 granted asylum in
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their country. assuming nine to 15 miles walking a day, even under 25 under more aggressive estimates they would arrive sometime into the new year, january. we'll have more, after this. i am a family man.
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>> welcome back to "coast to coast." i'm susan li on the floor of the new york stock exchange. we're looking at apple, one of the main drags, dipping below $200 a piece for the first time since july. we're close to the levels once again. we're in correction territory for apple. five weeks of declines. this is on the back of a report from nikkei news, reporting apple is canceling production boost for iphone x r. that is a cheaper form they launched with aluminum casing, led screens. this is not first time they canceled production for iphones. this happened with the iphone 5c. this is not a good time for apple. they missed wall street guidance for the holiday period. stopped breaking out unit sales for iphones and ipads, first time since 1980s. neil, isn't that surprising? neil: long before you were born.
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thank you, susan. sanctions against iran are ready to take effect. at least not over one will follow at least not right a way, forgiveness, time for other countries like china and india you to work out details on that. to oil analyst stephen schork on that. stephen, eventually the mage at the white house doing business with iran can only last so long, right? >> absolutely but let's keep in mind with the pricing there was a complete speculative bubble that was built into this market. we had instances where bears were liquidating 45% of their position oaf the summer when aggregate open interest was rising. money was coming into the market and market rallied 20%. keep in mind that rally occurred end of summer when we passed by the peak demand season. since october the bears re-established the 2/3 of the
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position, in open interest, this is important, open interest fallen as market has fallen. clearly bullish money is pulled out of the market. we recently had a bubble from august through september. that bubble is popped. we're right now where we started from over the summer demand season. so market right now appears to be in balance regardless of the headlines coming out of iran. neil: so what does that mean going forward for oil, by extension, gasoline, home heating oil prices that kind of thing? >> gasoline prices in new york harbor where you make and take delivery of the contract are at an all-time high. we were at an all-time high at the end of the summer. we've gone into the winter, gasoline supplies are very comfortable. what it means, neil, a very normal market. that is to say we're probably looking at a market in oil searching for the bottom. searching for the bottom because we are now coming out of the turn around season. refineries were in mint nance,
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shut down are ramming up, as we go into the holidays and people are on the roads, demand will pick up. that has added support to the market. we had nice pullback in gasoline and oil prices. we're looking at market in balance and we shouldn't expect egregious rallies given we're looking at well-supplied market. neil: very interesting, stephen, i always learn a lot. thank you very much, stephen schork. >> thank you, neil. neil: the president is ready to go to cleveland, ohio, in cincinnati, trying to seal the deal for republicans. put emphasis on the senate and not on the house but not exclusively. we'll explain after this. so all... evening long. ooh, so close. yes, but also all... night through its entirety. come on, all...
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the time from sunset to sunrise. right. but you can trade... from, from... from darkness to light. .. you're not gonna say it are you?
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not days. plus, allstate can pay your claim in minutes. now that you know the truth... are you in good hands? neil: all right, i don't know if the president behind schedule. i think he is running a little late heading off to cleveland and sometimes there is an opportunity he has with reporters before he goes so i've not heard anything to the contrary but we'll see. the president is going to be very busy in the final hours before voting in some places overnight tomorrow. connell mcshane is looking out what's at stake in the areas he's visiting. chengdu is behind schedule you better pick it up or rosary will behind midnight. the white house sent them to places you can still help your one governors race into senate
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races are all tossups. but dig into this a little bit and we can talk about the ohio governor's race here to think about governors races strategically purred richard cordray running against mike twyman, republican. this is one where the polls might ever cordray by a point or two well within the margin of error. we call it as a tossup. we talk about the strategically because think about how the president one in 2016. there are republicans in the state of ohio, republicans a solemn state of michigan and wisconsin. it's very possible all three of these states flipped the governor's mansion from red to blue. implications for 2020 for the presidential campaign and also for the 2020 senses. hasn't been talked about a lot of you probably should be with redrawing of congressional districts. that is certainly something people are talking about. the other races we look at where the president is going about
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their tossups that we've talked a lot about heading in. the thing about indiana that's interesting is not only is a well within the margin of error and real clear politics average by less than a point, the fox poll a little bit different from that. the idea here in indiana that we might get an early idea of what's happening. when we look at closing times and we'll talk about this tomorrow night. look at the 7:00 hour eastern time. you mention the kentucky house race in indiana is one of the 7:00 p.m. closing times. people looking for indicators about how the night is going that's one of the races they keep talking about in the state of indiana. another senate race we talked a lot about his missouri and this one as close as close to me with mccaskill and holly. if you look at real clear politics average of polly a plus and a point come indication may be his later couple points a shrinking slightly.
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still it is a slight lead for republican. it's a tossup race and the president will end his stay there. this event will get a lot of attention and misery tonight because it the last rally of the cycle. the president's been interviewed by sean hannity so it's an idea to try to say that race. free tossups. the governor races which don't get as talked about a lot may be just as if not more important for the president personally to set things up for 2020 and eliminate some of the losses. train she'll have a friendly governor in your corner can help you thank you for a much, connell mcshane. we talked about what the significant could be in a state or region among the first to report. indiana might've heralded that two years ago. it was the size of that victory that this could be a very big night at the time. that was indeed the case. jeff flock following developments closely in fort
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wayne, indiana. what is it like there? >> the president wanted by 19 points two years ago. the president will be here much later today, but these folks are lined up in a cold out here. connell makes a great point. eastern time even though were in the midwest. early indications could be interesting. take a look at the campaigning leading up. joe donnelly, democratic senator obviously someone who needs help to keep the state that the president won by 19 points. he got help from his own president that would be president obama yesterday in gary indiana. also with some help from rudy giuliani. >> all the time. >> there you go. you heard it here first. giuliani yesterday with braun. both of the candidates it knowledge in the polls have been one-way and nobody is taking anything for granted.
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listen to both. >> this is going to be a tight race anyone kid you not to vote. >> this is a very close election and every vote counts. your vote is your voice. [cheers and applause] if we do this rally and you don't vote, this rally it means nothing. so are you ready to go? >> here's another interesting twist beard the libertarian candidate in this race. her name is lucy brenton. she has pulled pretty well and there's some allegations that perhaps democrats are paying for facebook ads supporting her with the thought that maybe that takes votes away from republicans. take a look at what the president treated on the subject. former house that the founder joe donnelly of indiana's paying for facebook ads for his
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so-called department on the libertarian ticket. trying to steal the election. it's not what russia did the president announced? you know his politics and at the last few days of the race and by golly not much of anything surprises us here and not much of any surprises this whole crowd out here. i guess we'll see when the president gets here later. >> you are so seamless, buddy. thank you very much. he's encountered anything and everything from hurricane across both friendly and not so friendly. in the meantime the gridlock issue of what happens typically for the markets like that sort of thing and typically history shows they have nice things after such an election including midterm elections. dow jones newswire chief editor glenn paul, former chief of staff, senator mitch mcconnell and last but not least, deirdre bolton. we lose sight of the fact that as unproductive as it seems maybe because wall street likes
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that and they don't screw things up, wall street rises in an environment. >> up until october we were having yet another good year in the stock market but an extension of another nine market. october changed our fate a little bit with that. if dems take the house, which i know is the extent to prediction in many ways that what is going to have been, yeah, that is going to give the dems of course a little bit more power to investigate president trump in power to put up some roadblocks. it becomes yet another unknown that we can add to tariffs. the other big thing when i talk to business people that ceos and business leaders are the most distracted by them keeps them from making decisions. dream two i was reading about all of these wall street coming in now, guys giving a lot of money to democrats and not struck me as odd.
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i know they are kind of two millions will attach themselves to whoever can do a favor. but that was weird. >> it's kind of signal looking at the polls and trying to hedge their bets on the election front. really nobody can be clear about who the winners are going to be. there's dozens of races that are tossups. sure into you know,-year-old ross could actually embolden a little bit. mitch mcconnell and senate republicans who could conceivably pick up another couple of seats. the house going one way, being in charge that the senate going another way, would you envision an environment like that? >> the biggest factor is what it does for a confirmation process. the senate is in the personnel business. the houses in the legislative business to which you look at this both on a judicial side which we've seen a record number of judges confirmed the federal appellate level in the supreme
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court now, but also in executive positions. a lot of rumors about whether the president will switch the department of justice for example in other areas. the really important for him as having a republican in a majority there because you can only imagine having watched the cabin i hearings last month. neil: if you had to pick this over the house. >> you would in terms of making sure your staff is confirmed in able to do bold regulatory issues in addition to the legislative staff. >> the issue could change very quickly if republicans hang on to the house. one of the things i see happening, which again as i was mentioning during the break for this tape if i'm wrong. but do you see wall street pouncing on that kind of an unexpected development? somewhat expected that it might even be like the initial reaction and then sort of reassess and say hey this is
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good. >> for what it's worth if republicans did hold on to both chambers i do actually think you would see stocks get a little bit of wind in their sails. for one reason we lost so much in october so there's already a position to gain something back but it's also what you alluded to. it is clarity. so that means more deregulation. it means probably more pro-business terms. so i think there would be a lift. >> there also could be if it doesn't go that way a lot more investigating of the president and of course democrats are very low to mention the impeachment word, but they're going to launch a lot of investigations i think it goes with the territory and how wall street reacts to that. >> there's uncertainty being pushed into the agenda they will react negatively. neil: the kind of thing that wouldn't carry over the senate. >> what we haven't talked about
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his trade and that's the bigger issue in all of this. this is the regardless outcome of the election that's been hanging over wall street and we saw that with the sober driver was the warnings. not the greater names but the warnings about terrorists and possibly not. that doesn't go away. >> we should stress a lot of the powers that be in washington, they were talking to the president about go slow at this because we hear a lot of constituents that this could arrange and we seen the proof in the market that any time they jump in on friday when we got word the president got ahead of themselves they fall. so what do you think? >> there's not a natural constituency of the republican party for many of the turf discussions. neil: he enjoys more support for democrats. >> typically like sherrod brown type democrat, actually a blue-collar democrat. frankly it's a little bit surprising president trump has created a whole bunch of new free trader democrats in the
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process in the last year in the house, but that is kind of what we've seen is much more support within the centerleft than we typically see in the right. so yeah, i agree there's going to be an ongoing discussion regardless of the way this election comes down. >> alleges that centerleft because it seems like candidates in this race is so tight a lot of them this regardless of the persons party there, people who are centrists, the senate races, and i mean, a lot of these people, both candidates are close to the middle. there is the risk of water independence or people who might switch parties for one vote going to do? >> are you surprised the democrat and republicans in general are benefiting more from the good economic news. >> i'm surprised about. the jobs report peered a lot of wage growth and voters did talk about that. concerns in the market are overshadowing some of that
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progress. concerns on various friends. not just trade but look at the caravan and all these other issues causing a little bit of apprehension. >> even income inequality. in texas you have of course o'rourke and cruise. that's the most expensive race for senate ever. $100 million not even counting and a lot of that money is coming from silicon valley execs. that's a lot of apple. when you talk about san francisco when people say it's really become a dirty place except for millionaires and billionaires. everybody else's lives are pretty gross. walking to work there's trash in a lot of social issues and that's even coming to the forefront. >> a problem to have his voters rarely come to the polls to say thank you. almost all the time. >> particularly in the midterm is a referendum on what people think about the president. more difficult is in bad
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economic times, voters focus on the economy and good economic times voters focus on basically almost anything else. >> is the president wise to use the caravan and some other stuff because it now than i says. >> the biggest challenge for a party in power is to replicate the enthusiasm of the party out of power and receive a special election of unprecedented democratic enthusiasm. the question is how does the president and republicans try to replicate that energy and if the answer surely is talking about things like immigration. >> the good economy is not an incentive to vote as you were saying. these other issues are near and dear. our poll was showing both parties see this as a referendum more so than we seen in the past. you're either pro or anti-president. >> i read that poll. something like 75% saying this is my vote whether it is for or against president trump and his administration. that's a high number.
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sure into very high number. thank you very much. we have vidal up but a little bit more than four points here. a lot of people sitting on their hands ahead of tomorrow and getting an indication one way. but what tipped their hand for them? we curb our record early voting in the fact that already in florida the early votes have eclipsed the total votes we had in the election less than two years ago. so something has changed. the impact just after that. think your large cap equity fund has exposure to energy infrastructure mlps? think again. it's time to shake up your lineup.
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neil: all right, early voting is to be unheard of more than a decade ago and what sort of a lot of people said were trying to make is convenient and it's not that big of a deal. it's a big deal now. record numbers of early voters, nine of which are eclipsing the total vote recorded a little more than two years ago. so there is something to this and it is a phenomenon in its own right. kristina and how that is sorting out because there's a crucial
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senate and gubernatorial battle going on as we speak. reporter: it's true. i've spoken to so many people already voted conducted democratic rally car public rally and no joke more than three quarters of the crowd raised their hand thing i've always voted in this is two days ago. you have a lot about to mention here that they can change things with their vote. however, this midterm is seen as a referendum against the president. you're either with him voting for republicans or against him voting for democrats. both races are extremely close. republicans are slowly inching into the governor governor race andrew gilligan versus ron desantis at the margin rate is less than 2% of a very similar situation when you talk about senate bill malson versus governor rick scott. less than 2% difference between the boats. however you have according to the polls democrats in the lead. we spoke to a lot of people walking by. those who have voted en masse
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with their main concerns were with this midterm election and how the economy played a role. listen in. >> rising taxes can ridiculous. i live here in florida so i don't want to taxes to be raised. >> and make decent money site to benefit from the tax cuts. the economy has helped as well but added cost from from my perspective. i would rather pay more taxes than have a better environment in a lot of these other social programs. >> of our debates about people i've spoken to, taxes coming up as a top priority. and then you have the quality race issue that has come up quite a bit. nonetheless throughout the day on fox business i'll be interviewing rick scott the governor of florida currently in running for the senate to you. this is still such a tight race coming meal. tranter just incredible. thank you very much. then there's montana where jon tester has been targeted by donald trump.
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in fact, the president had no fewer than four rallies of the plan their and yet the president cannot get the guy down to the polls here. keep in mind the president won montana by over 20 points in former democratic senator max baucus. always good to have you. would you make of that despite the president's popularity in the state, jon tester is surviving and polls are polls and you've reminded me in the past they don't matter until election day. but he seems to be absorbing these body. >> montana does jon tester. he served two terms, 12 years, also as legislator for a while. he's based in montana. crewcut, missed a couple fingers, got a little weight on it now. he's a good guy to my people know him. his opponent, the sky is not in the state or not but in montana very many years. it's got nonstate twang in this election comes down to you vote for the guy you know, local guy
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out of state for even though trump tries to nationalize this race by talking about immigration and national issues. i don't think that's going to prevail. tom has come in here already in the last several. and pens a couple of times, added altogether about a republican president, vice president of surrogates have been here against tester for the last several. primarily because donald trump is addictive. he's vindictive against jon tester because they cause some problems for ronnie jackson and trump has taken up personally. that's why it comes so often. i don't think it's going to work ready sure working hard at it. >> there's a lot of bad blood ever since that nomination took himself out of the running for
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that. i am curious now the president seems to have made it clear that the senate is his priority. he's all but given up on the house. what do you make of that? >> well, i think it is true. i mean, most analysts think that the house is going to be democratic. of course you never know till the votes are counted and there's still enough republican, not senate seat, republican incumbent seats will send democrats will not get a majority of the senate. i don't know. we'll see. this is a crazy year. neil: it really is. what do you look for when you're following this? the president arrived to join the sanders on its way for busy day campaigning on ohio, indiana, missouri, what have you. is it your sense this could be like 2016 the polls are missing something or would learn, what do you think? >> i think with the election the
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polls are missing more all the time of social media in early voting. neil: senator, the president is commenting right now. >> there's great electricity in the air like we haven't seen in my opinion since the 16 elections. something's happening we'll see. i think we are going to do very well and you have three very exciting tops. will be doing three major speeches in front of big crowds, very big crowd. go ahead. [inaudible] >> well, we haven't set anything up yet. we don't know that's going to be the right place. i'm going to be in paris for other reasons, but we will be meeting at the g20 and probably will have meetings after that. probably plenty of meetings. getting along with russia, china and all of them would be a good thing. i've set up for a long time. we'll have plenty of meetings.
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i'm not sure that we'll have a meeting in paris. probably not. [inaudible] dish i don't know about it. we have a lot of ads. they certainly are effective based on the numbers we are seeing. [inaudible] >> well, a lot of things are offensive. your questions are offensive a lot of time. [inaudible] >> well, i don't think so but i'm willing to accept that. we are doing well. and i think we are going to do very well in the house. if you look over 100 years for whatever reason the party with the president doesn't do very well. i think we will do pretty well. look, you're covering me. the energy that we have, the
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energy that this whole party has now is really incredible. whether it is the great economy or the immigration or strong stand in a very weak stand where they have open borders, which to me means nothing but crime. i don't know, but i can tell you there's a lot of energy. [inaudible] >> we will see what it is. i have a feeling that others will want to get things done and right now but after the election other people want to get things done. [inaudible] neil: all you have to do is go around take a look at what's happened over the years and you'll see. there are a lot of people, my opinion and based on proof that try and get in illegally and actually vote illegally. we just want to let them know that there will be prosecutions at the highest level.
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with the oil it's very interesting. we have the toughest sanctions ever imposed, but on oil we want to go slower because i don't want to drive the oil prices. this has nothing to do with iran. i don't want to drive the oil prices in the world up so i'm not looking to be a great hero and bring it down to -- i could get it done immediately but it would cause a shock to the market. if you notice, oil prices are going down despite the fact half of their capacity is gone. i don't want to do that. i saw some people say why aren't you tougher on that? number one the sanctions are very tough. number two i don't want to lift the oil prices worldwide by clamping down 100%. it will be gradual. [inaudible]
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>> administrations make changes after midterms and probably will be right in that category, too. i think it's very customary. [inaudible] >> no timeline. no timeline. for the most part i love my cabinet. we have some really talented people appear to look at the deals are making on trade, the job was done including foreign affairs. i mean, we've done record-setting work. i don't know that we get the credit for it but that is okay. [inaudible] >> very good at all announced before the end of the week. the u.n. ambassador bill announced before the end of the week. why would i do that? i don't know. is that the new rumor? [inaudible] i was surprised by that question. i hadn't heard that one. [inaudible] >> well, i think he's done a very good job.
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[inaudible] >> well come i haven't seen it yet but i'll take a look. any reports i'll take a look. certainly i would not be happy without it all. but i will take a look. he's been a very good job as secretary. thank you all, cf. neil: the president boarded air force one right now. he said ohio, indiana, missouri, couple news item to pass along here that he will have an announcement on his next u.n. ambassador now that nikki haley is stepping down. by the end of the week, now of course the fox news personality, state department spokesman that does seem to be the most talked about name when the president makes a formal announcement by the end of the week. after midterms something president said to do is shake up their cabinet. for the most part it of my cabinet. he didn't specify which ones he might not, but obviously jeff sessions attorney general had a very acrimonious relationship
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and abetting appears to be one way or the other he's gone, he's toast or that will be announced shortly after the president has a chance to assess the midterm results. white house correspondent francesca chambers. is that given that sessions is gone regardless. >> they suggested that something they liked it once congress is back in session. whether he would do that before january we don't know. not something they would be able to get through a new attorney general until next year. the president has made some comments about his pentagon chief jim mattis as well. that's another one where watching and of course the president saying how the decision i miss you ambassador by the end of the week, which as you noted could have some breaking news that the president has to paris over the weekend. neil: you know, the president has shifted a little bit on this campaign.
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he's been very, very busy, but this time putting on the senate, not the house. what do you make of that? >> the president has absolutely acknowledged that in the error too many house races to get to. the question is tomorrow whether or not he should have spent more time perhaps in some of those areas where there wasn't a competitive senate race but there was a competitive house that he might have been able to boost a house member that republican who was endangered. >> his argument in those of the white house says that anytime the president comes to his date everyone is swept up in the said republican candidate vying for these house the if their incumbents are not he mentions their names and they benefit as well. would he think of that? >> that is certainly true for republicans who want to be seen on stage with the president in how the image for advertising. but it's also true there are house members and other people
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running for office who they might name and give a shout out but they're not on the tarmac when he is landing and they're not getting an opportunity to come up on stage and be with the president. if you're someone running closer to the president that you support his agenda and that's the reason you want to get elected that's an image you'd like to have. straight to francesca, thank thu for you much good francesca chambers, daily mail white house correspondent at the white house. you're not imagining it. you have seen a lot of campaign ads. $5 billion expected to be spent on tomorrow's elections between ads and people in getting the vote out. a record number rivaling the stuff you see in presidential elections. so what does it mean for 2020? after this.
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i sure do! see? you're able to stick with him. like to travel? this kind of plan goes with you anywhere you travel in the country. so go ahead, spend winter somewhere warm. if you're turning 65 soon or over 65 and planning to retire, find out more about the plans that live up to their name. thumbs up to that! remember, the time to prepare is before you go on medicare! don't wait. get started today. to learn more about the range of aarp medicare supplement plans and their rates, call or go online today to request your free decision guide. oh, and happy birthday... or retirement... in advance. neil: i guess it's natural as things get more sensitive as time goes on but the midterm
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election up the charts. $5 billion in spending project did and it goes into lots of stuff from ads, flyers, all the signs you see around the neighborhood, but eye-popping levels you can imagine what it's like in 2020. we've got market watchers -- a libyan fox business network susan li from the nyse. no surprise that they pour money in, but the numbers, especially those earmarks from the financial community and disproportionally from democrat stand now. >> that is very interesting i have to say because here at the new york stock exchange it's mostly republican. a lot of it mostly on fox news, fox business and they are progrowth. they want progrowth policies usually getting spending, tax cuts and though we often see regulation as well. that is interesting in your ride individual donations with 1.3 billion, but they are
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holding it. >> scott, from your vantage point, money doesn't necessarily give you an edge. hillary clinton decided when it came to fund raising than just money spent during the last campaign and we know what happened there. when you hear this thing and democrats have been spending more of it in raising more of it, what do you think? >> it has a little bit of an influence. even in the state of illinois we are not spending as much for state elections as a representative's views to spend with gubernatorial candidate. it doesn't seem to be very difficult to attract a big-time dnc money or big-time state donors because you're not going to believe this but we've got three candidates here. one congressional candidate and the other to our state reps that are now getting money while they are living at home with their parents. they are running for office, living at home with their parents and checking huge money
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from in-state. it doesn't seem to me you can even get in the other. neil: is this a great country or what. i'm looking at this and wondering what you look at. i've been telling a lot of smart people how they're going to play out tomorrow night and much as sad when indiana comes rolling in, you know, what kind of a margin, for example or be seen in close races and obviously the senate race and whether joe donnelly won by a little or a lot or rents at all. what he watches the results start coming in. >> first comment on the money. they wouldn't be so much money in politics that there wasn't so much for sale. that's a problem on both sides of the aisle. this year a couple trends that have boosted the numbers in terms of donations, people are riled up and polarized it mostly a turnout game i'm afraid so i'll be watching turnout to see exactly how many people on either side of the nl should
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have because of course elections go with whoever showed up. now they have access to even more expensive big data and data analytics tools, and that is where a lot of this money in politics is going. they're building complicated voter profiles to print point who is on their team. it means a lot of independent and swing voters are more or less disengaged, maybe overwhelmed by how much advertising they're getting a cycle but it's only going to get worse in 2020. neil: it tends to just get cluttered. suzanne, there is a thought here, the consensus view about things to turn out and seems to go something like this. the house goes democrat, senate goes republican. wall street likes that. the people you talk to, and a staff interview with it would be surprised but i may be pleasantly surprised is that generally a conservative capitalist loving crowd and they feel like they have with donald
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trump. let's say the house were to stay republican, what are they telling? >> i would be a shock to many here. a capitalist mindset. after the election in 2016 that's an abiding and money started rotating in because that's when things get done. people are preparing for gridlock in many peoples eyes at status quo in the biggest move on. >> in a split government or after election with their lawsuits with ronald reagan in 1982 or after bill clinton lost 52 seed, you know, in the house four decades out of power. stocks were up in both cases six months later, a year later. would that be a welcome
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development? >> maybe not welcome if you're republican, but welcome if you like the market. the only outcome that would be slightly negative is that the democrats when does. i don't think that's going to be the case. we can see this tail off a little bit but i still don't think that matters as long as the economy gives us the numbers on friday. as long as we are three yards and a cloud of dust and everything looks good for the economy, i'm not too concerned about it. the incumbent party isn't very well favored in this election and like you just mentioned 1994, clinton campaigned his socks off and they got killed. i'm not too worried about it. neil: we should point out how many people forget although it's largely seen as a money loving crowd, and they did very well so they make money where they can enjoy it when they can. let me get your sense of just
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been moved there in the economy because many republicans but this one crowning achievement by extension, the booming economy, record low unemployment and so many key demographic groups that african-americans, women, you name it and that's what he should be crowing about. the president is more or less saying i do mention that, that these other reissues, he's not saying that, >> if we look at what workers are reporting it, with the economy. a lot of them show health care is number one in the something they need to really beef up their response and how they would lead on that issue and they talked a lot about repealing the replacing a reforming the affordable care act and so far have failed to do so. the focus has too often been on wall street when the president and his ally should be focused
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on main street. consumer confidence levels and benefits doing better than they have in a year. something that benefits the everyday working man and woman in the united states. not just how the stock market doing but how strong our labor markets are. neil: usually they are joined at the hip. if one stood while the other presumably is doing well. suzanne, is he your sense were the people you talk to right now that this is going to continue regardless of how the election goes tomorrow that obviously to scott's point the wind at all these guys back is strong economy, record unemployment levels, not across the board in what will likely be a very strong holiday shopping season. >> i think that's the expert patient. there is virtually no volume up late today and probably tomorrow. but there's still a lot of investor dollars swirling around and a lot of wins right now for the stock market.
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let's get through this and see what happens tomorrow night. neil: do you select a market where it's at right now? it's been through and we are 900 points or so off the lows looking not a week and a half ago, maybe cooler, calmer heads prevailing. would you think think? >> maybe in the short term. i'm a normalization rate. i'd like to see interest rates get to a fair level, a real level. neil: what is the real level? >> a little bit higher than we are. three and three quarters. the market doesn't like surprises. at the end of the day you can't normalize one part of the equation. we used to be a lot more volatile when kiwi kind of took all the volatility and we managed down to zero. if you're a normalize it got a normalize everything. we can't just take her spot. neil: you of all people normalizing anything.
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i kid with great love and great respect. thank you all very, very much. obviously referring to kiwi, talking about quantitative easing where the federal reserve is forcibly buying anything i could find to bring its rate down to zero. they are unwinding that right now. so far i guess kind of good. more after this. making my dreams a reality
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neil: all right, falling onto correction territory down almost 14% from its highs. 20% with a lot of technology stocks up in the nasdaq started her. amazon and will go into that in some of the nuance is there. they are not ignoring right now. he joins us with the moneymaking environment we call. what is going on with these old markets that are now just getting shellacked? >> i think it's a couple things. we have increased volatility because of certain things like rising rates, geopolitical concerns that stocks have been the high fliers sellout concert in the case in amazon. 74 when it started selling off now about 60. as far as apple people are
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concerned about supply-chain issues. if the tariffs go up to what president trump is talked about, that will hurt apple supply-chain and raise the cost of products. >> you and i have gotten into this before that apple is more or less like technology, even/retail fund that it's not just investing in a stock or sector, but indicative of consumer appetite for pricing stuff, whatever you want to call it. the consumer is unwilling to pay for this stuff and 46, 47, whatever was they made more in each than ever in the past. yet it's not resonating with investors. what do you think? >> i think apple is smart to take out the iphone unit sales because what they're looking at going forward is the service contract. you have about $10 million as far as apple music, streaming, all the apps you buy from apple,
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all your subscriptions. $37 billion in apple iphone sales. 2020 just two years turn on the service bar will be according to tim cook around $50 billion with increase in services where apple makes its money going forward as far as the service. this quarter apple will come in around $93 billion at the high end. if they have the quarter they could have the first $100 billion quarter. neil: but don't you get a little bit jaded now if you know apple is not going to break out of its sails, and they only report them when they're really great. when they don't you're saying they're not great. how is the suspicion field early on with the apple watch that they wouldn't break out numbers. they would say years later it's the best-selling watch on the planet or whatever it was. does it breed cynicism? >> it does to some extent. the lifetime innovator since
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mr. jobs has been gone. incremental increases in all their products and are doing incredible jobs putting out new of the same products, but they're not innovating right at all. you have to go to the service revenue. apple once a buying something like the nfl right for the nba right. they end up taking the streaming service to a complete different level. i think that is in the past as far as apple creating a complete the market like they did with the ipad. neil: what the heck is going on with amazon? >> amazon has the christmas coming up here to 49% was the project did for the cloud came in at 46%. its solid projections going forward. amazon will be the most viable company in the world. right now they have too high of a valuation. i think we are looking at a christmas season with all the data points coming out right now with low unemployment wages going up. consumer confidence that an 18
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year high. were having an absolute -- >> you're not in the crevices or costs are going up that took effect last week at $15 an hour and the fact they now offer free shipping to non-prime numbers. i don't know how regular prime numbers feel about that. what you think? >> it was a terrific political move. six months ago these were the pariah of the conservatives and liberals. today those facts going for wages than $15 an hour. conservatives want to get extra taxes and charts from the usps. president trump in a battle with jeff bezos. we are going to support our military and dod. now they've had a huge political homerun and everyone loves jeff bezos. it was a great political decision. neil: all right, buddy. thank you very much. john layfield in bermuda
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following all these developments here. meanwhile attending three rallies across the country targeting ohio, indiana, missouri. he's made it clear that especially when he arrives in cleveland here that his priority is making sure republicans can boost their numbers in the united states senate. that's a just impossibility. i must stipulate here that even when he talks about the senate a number of republican congressional candidate in the audience and he does mention them. a little more after this.
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♪ neil: all right, up about 156 points. all of this backdrop for what will be a very interesting election, we'll cover it all night long. i will be there with charles payne a host of others. taking you through the next crazy hour. my friend. charles: neil, thank you very much. it is getting crazier by the minute. i'm charles payne. this is "making money." coming up a day of reckoning almost here as voters head to the polls. pollsters and prognosticators are out with who will be in charge of congress when the dust settles, but what if they're wrong, again? what does it mean for you and your money in these markets? where should you invest after the election? we'll look at some specific scenarios. also, trumpnomics it is a easy message for republicans heading into tomorrow's


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