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tv   Mornings With Maria Bartiromo  FOX Business  November 30, 2018 6:00am-9:00am EST

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>> i think we are very close to doing something with china but i don't know that i want to do it because what we have right now is billions and billions of dollars coming into the united states in the form of tariffs or taxes so i really don't know but i will tell you that i think china wants to make a deal, i'm open to making a deal but frankly i like to deal we have right now. maria: markets this morning expect today open lower, take a look at futures indicating decline in triple digits in dow industrials, down 30 points on nasdaq right now. this after stocks edged lower yesterday erasing gains in final hour of trading, wild one at the end of the day there. down 27 points at the close of dow, down 6 on s&p and down 18 on the nasdaq yesterday. it is the last trading day of the month. it has been a mixed month, dow and s&p are on track for gains for the month with the nasdaq down half of 1% for the month of
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november. in europe this morning we are seeing a similar story, declines across the board, ftse down 3 quarters of 1%, cac quarante down 25, half percent and dax index in germany down two-thirds of 1%, 73 points lower n asia overnight markets finished mostly higher except korea. there's chaos on the border, high-speed chase with border patrol in california ends in a deadly crash. we have the latest coming up this morning. heroine escape from california wild fire, new video from body camera showing desperate moments an officer thought he may not make it out of the blaze. staying in detention, carlos goshn will reportedly be held for additional 10 days after a ruling from a japanese court. we've got the latest there. plus steph curry's response, the warriors star responding for 9-year-old request for making
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shoes for girls. joining know break it all down fox business dagen mcdowell, the king's college professor business of economics brian brendberg and independents voice heather, good to see you this morning. >> nice to be here. >> can't think of a better place to be here, so much news coming out of buenos aires, we will see what happens. maria: fast-moving news out of g20. first argentina and china, dagen, which would be the big one. dagen: there's no way to know what kind of good news just this market needs to see because, again, there's the front page story in the wall street journal today that looking to try to fuse tensions and boost the markets it's possible we are looking at trade deal to hold off on further tariffs through the spring in exchange for new broad talks based -- they want to look at a kind of widespread trade architecture with china
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but, again, president trump seem today indicate earlier in the week that 10%, 25% increase in the existing tariffs with china is still in play and it's unlikely to be postponed so there's been a lot of mixed signals coming out of-based on reporting -- >> has to be still in play because there's no way that chinese are coming to the table if he takes a deal. maria: negotiating. dagen: right, they're negotiating but it remains to be seen how good just the good news need to be in order to move markets higher because we had the incredible jump in the market, not yesterday but the day before yesterday because of the jay powell speech. maria: 600-point move in the dow. joining the conversation this morning is the founder of bridgewater associates ray dalio is here this morning in studio, former ambassador to un, honduras, méxico and philippines, john will be here as well to talk g20. california congressman and house armed services committee john
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garamendi and sir rocco forte, a lot to come in next 3 hours, don't miss moment of it. we kick off with top story, president trump on world stage, arriving in buenos aires last night for annual g20 summit arrival coming amid rising tensions as he prepares for sit-down with jinping, world leaders will begin gathering for the summit in just 2 hours from now, next hour we are expected to hear from president trump as he signs the usmca trade pack along with mexican president peña nieto you canadian president justin trudeau, we will take you there when the signage begins. liz claman, she will be doing show live, liz, good morning to you, what can you tell us? >> good morning, maria, we are here at the park hyatt in the room where it will happen, so to
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speak, signing of u.s.-méxico-canada trade deal, all three leaders will be here in just about an hour or two to put pen to paper but the word is we are hearing there was still bit horse-trading and the ink wasn't even yet dry, interesting moment to see expressions, to see the perception of what we have behind us and that's the desk where both president trump, canada's prime minister justin trudeau and méxico's president peña nieto is going to be there and you know what, there was a supposedly a side-letter agreement that would show preserve the right to impose 25% global tariffs on auto, so that would give the u.s. a little bit of upper hand we also got according to reports more of an open area for access to the canadian dairy market. so what we are looking at here is a lot of energy and buzziness about the signing and it's sort of kicks off the big g20 moment, however, president trump who will stand right there already had early morning at breakfast
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with mauricio - marci, the president of argentina, more than signing of usmca or meeting with xi jinping, here is the president this morning. >> we will be talking about lots of good things for argentina, for the united states including trade, including military purchases and other things but we have a lot to talk about, little bit old times, 95% business that we -- liz: but this morning you will see leadership come together to sign that usmca deal also known as nafta 2.0, boy, maria, it has really been a long road coming here. back during candy president trump said he we wanted to rip it off or modernized, the tweaks according to report are rather small but we won't know exactly what's in it, whether we will see the dropping of the tariffs on the canadian and mexican steel and aluminum because those two countries really wanted to see that and watch the markets,
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maria, that's what will really tell you if the markets and stocks like this deal. 3:00 p.m. eastern, live from buenos aires from countdown to the closing bell and that's when we spin it forward to the big meeting between china and the u.s., maria, back to you. maria: all right, liz, we lp watching, liz claman live in buenos aires this morning. your expectations for the summit, brian brendberg? >> interesting that they will be signing usmca, a day or two before the deal came out the word of the street that the president is not going to do it, mad at trudeau, we are in the same situation with china. who knows where it's going to go. people are saying he does not want to do a deal, people are saying he does want to do a deal. only he knows and we will find out -- maria: we will see what china is going to do. we are in the same place unless we see a change in china's behavior. >> he's not in any hurry.
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dagen: china according to journal president xi has been pressing for a deal, he is worried that the economy in china could be impacted even more with growing at just 6 and a half percent in the third quarter of this year, but -- but you do have these within the white house, you have larry kudlow who is worried about increasing trade tensions, even trade tensions where they are hurting the economy and the stock market and president trump clearly looks at the stock market as barometer of popular support, he used to tweet about it and quote about it when it was hitting record after another and you have bob lighthizer chief on trade in the white house who has different position. i want to point out that when we talk about a truce that we got a truce back in may with steve mnuchin saying the u.s. is putting trade war on hold while
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the two sides will not assess tariffs on one another as talks continue, well, we have tariffs on $200 billion of chinese import. president trump and lighthiezer won over in terms of larry kudlow and mnuchin. maria: what do you think, heather? >> trump is always a source of drama which makes much more exciting story but the reality is that what really matters is what the fed does and we now know that powell seems to be more sensitive to what the markets are doing than he may have been before as much as he is data driven. if something doesn't happen with china, you have tension, navarro going to the meeting and navarro is very much of the school that agendas and architectures mean more china traps of endless
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discussions that never actually lead to deals. maria: we have the president tweeting from argentina this morning about the meeting he canceled with the president of russia, he canceled meeting with vladimir putin, he says, i get it, i am a very good developer happily living my life when i see our country going in wrong direction to put it mildly against all odds i decide to run for president and continue to run my president very legal and very cool, talked about it in campaign trail, lightly looked at doing building in russia but put up zero money and zero guaranties and didn't do the project, witch hunt. he's referring to the mueller probe and michael cohen's guilty plea about lying, he's a real estate developer, heather, do you see anything here in terms of him considering putting a building in russia and deciding against it? >> last i checked investing in russia is legal. [laughter] >> discussing investing in russia is legal. maria: yeah. >> the crimes for which people have been indicted by mueller
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are things like the timing of the recollection. the russians brought to heel have nothing to do with president trump. this is something that ought to concern everyone, is what happens when you have the power of special prosecutor trying to ring at the threat of peril disproportionate sentences some sort of information that advances political agenda. maria: right, anything that says anything about russia is sort of -- >> can we call him anthrax bob. a man for 5 years pursued somebody who clearly was not the cause of anthrax and wasted all of the taxpayer money on an investigation, bob mueller. anthrax bob. >> you can test that one out and see how that goes. >> let's not forget what happens when you no checks.
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dagen: bob mueller is there in part of mistakes that the trump administration made, there's a blot of blame about why bob mueller is there in the first place. maria: that's true, deadly crash in california border we have the latest, pickup truck slipping after high-speed chase with border patrol agents, the story is next. then remaining in jail, japanese court reportedly approving extension on carlos goshn' detention, he will be there up to 60 days, we have the fallout next. the hard work you put into lowering your
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maria: welcome back high-speed chase near u.s.-méxico border in san diego turned deadly, cheryl casone with details in head
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headlines. cheryl: chevy pickup attempt today flee stop, rolled into embank meant, this happened on i8, southern california, pickup carrying 11 people, 3 of them were killed and other 8 are injured, the driver was speeding at more than 100 miles per hour as they went through traffic, he's believed to be a u.s. citizen and now in border patrol custody, not where the passengers were part of migrant caravan or they were legal or illegal in general, we are trying to get more details in the story this morning. also this, deputy u.s. marshal shot and killed while trying to serve a warrant. the suspect shooting the officer while barricaded inside home in tucson, arizona, listen to the tape. [shots fired] >> oh, my god. get behind the car. go inside. cheryl: frightening moments there.
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surrendered, he was wanted for stalking law enforcement, name of deputy marshal has not been released as of yet. then there's this, japanese court has reportedly extended the detention of former nissan chairman carlos goshn for 10 more days without charge, prosecutors requested the extension to have more time to investigate his alleged financial misconduct, shares of nissan down 14% so far this year. so, maria, he's still in custody. maria: you know how i feel about this, cheryl, this is extraordinary -- i don't understand the japanese judiciary system, holding somebody, brian brendberg when you don't even have the charge, they say they will keep him another 10 days as they decide what to charge with him. >> very limited access to lawyers, there's absolutely no transparency, we don't really know the details which is one thing but the fact is he hasn't even been charged yet, how in the world are you holding him for this period of time. maria: we know that there was a movement within nissan to take him down because they do not want to be acquired by french
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company. >> they do not like the deal.but there's no transparency here and this looks like a lot of back room deal to go set somebody up and now detain him with no end, i don't know. maria: a guy who was icon at one point, comic book character named after him. what do you think? >> i think he should have been japanese, not being japanese in japan is not helping him. dagen: they loved him when he came in and rescued the company and now they are treating -- >> what have you done for me lately deal. dagen: they see him as flight risk because he's brazilian citizen but lives in places around the world. maria: french citizen as well. dagen: violation of what we consider to be somebody's rights to investigate allege activity.
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>> in the meantime you stay here. maria: that's terrible. it's terrible. apparently he's been told, you can't speak to your family, your sleeping on the floor on a cot, you will eat porridge. dagen: we might expect it from -- maria: russia. dagen: even china. maria: they call themselves capitalist, i don't think so. we will keep following that, coming up incredible video of body camera as he navigated through most destructive wild fire in state's history, slashing jobs, bayer's plans to cut jobs, cut iconic brands like dr. sholss, we will tell you about it back in a moment. this is not a bed.
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maria: welcome back, now to battle at the border, tijuana's mayor taking aim at organizers of caravan, he's never seen situation like this. live from tijuana, méxico, griff, good morning to you. griff: good morning, maria, yeah, mayor manuel calls crisis, we had torrential downpours and we are outside of 6,000 strong but if you look in there the weather has just destroyed it on top of that they are suffering from over 60% have infections, cases of tb, chickenpox and infestations of lice, hiv aids cases, but you know when he
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talks about who he blames for it, he says the organizers are truly criminals, listen. >> they are dealing with lives, they are dealing with people, it's a federal crime. if they asked, do you know who they are, i don't know, look at the films, look at them and you'll find who are they. griff: when he talks about films, part of that is referring to sunday's mayhem that migrants rushed the border and he talked about the impact that it had financially on the people of tijuana, listen to this. >> people from san diego cross the border to work in tijuana, people from tijuana cross the border to work in the united states and in those 6 hours that the border was closed we lost 129 million pesos, that's not fair. so how do you think people from tijuana feel towards those people who are making problems?
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>> 129 million pesos is over 6 million u.s. dollars the mayor worries that they'll another rush like that and he also is putting footing the bill for this and he says he can't do it past this weekend, he will need federal help, so far he's gotten none, maria. maria: $30,000 a day and there's all to have sickness, griff. >> that's right, tijuana people are worried about. they want to help migrants, this is a migrant town but unless the new president who would be inaugurated tomorrow steps in with federal funds she's in a difficult spot, maria. maria: we will keep following, griff jenkins on the ground in tijuana, coming up crypto crime, floyd mayweather and dc khalid hit with fines, smell of fear, one protection company offering movie genre like western and horror, back in a minute.
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>> welcome back, thanks for joining us, it is friday, november 30, 6:30 on the east coast. the g 20 summit is on, meeting with the president of argentina, signing the us deal him of the united states mexico canada agreement, with the leaders of mexico and canada, the focus is trade at the anticipated dinner with xi jinping. markets are lower indicating a decline in trading of 120 points. the s&p is down one half of 1%
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as is the nasdaq. the major indices closed marginally lower, down just rules down a fraction as was the s&p down 6 points, the nasdaq down 18. the dow, isn't the and nasdaq on track to finish the week higher. in europe a similar story. look at the indices in european markets down 2 thirds of 1%, 48 points lower. 69 points lower. the asian markets close mostly higher overnight. the latest on the california wildfires including authorities ending their search for remains in paradise and incredible body camera footage released of a deputy in the middle of the campfire. breaking news, a breach at marriott, security incidents with guest registration
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database, marriott says there has been unauthorized access going back to 2014. marriott shares are down, crypto trouble, floyd mayweather in hot water, with crypto currency dealings with a kick in the right direction. stefan curry's response to a 9-year-old girl wanting to know why his sneakers are only sold to boys. the g 20 summit is on, donald trump holding a breakfast a bilateral meeting this morning with the president of argentina. in 30 minutes time the president will sign the us mca deal, the leaders of mexico and canada will be with him to sign a deal. presidential campaign communications director and president ever house democrats, good to see you, thanks for joining us. this deal is important, the
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mexico canada deal, we will watch them sign it but it has to be ratified by congress in the new year. do you see any impediments to this deal closing? >> a democratic house, partisan politics, look at the democratic party who spent the last two years trying to derail this economy they have a foothold on the government that gives an opportunity to do that. the uncertainty of however long the votes take or the criticism that comes through because of partisan politics, i expect a feverish perspective from the administration because it is a great achievement, everyone said this is not possible and he proved to the american people an outside perspective, a business approach to resolve problems. >> will we see the next two years fighting back and forth because democrats don't once to agree even though the us is in
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a better deal versus nafta? >> we will see a lot of fighting regardless in the next two years but this is a win for the president. he said he would be willing to rip up the nafta deal but he is signing it and it is a step in the right direction. there is going to be mudslinging as we head into january with democrats controlling the house. interesting to see what happens. maria: the real mudslinging is the investigation, donald trump's former lawyer michael cohen pleading guilty about business dealings in russia, he tried to downplay donald trump's involvement in a building project in moscow. here is what the president had to say about those claims. >> he is a week person and he is trying to get a reduced sentence. is lying about a project
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everybody knew about. we were very open with it, we were thinking of building a building. i don't know what you would call it. there would be nothing wrong if i did do it. >> all of the president's men are being exposed for the liars they are. michael cohen is included in that. it is a matter of time before they turn on donald trump and the fact that mueller has 70 hours of additional testimony really should concern the president right now and with michael cohen and all the president's men, there was collusion between the president and russia. maria: this is something we have been covering and you know -- >> the investigation isn't done, how do we know? maria: where do you see collusion? >> when you think of the fact he was dealing with russia at
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the time, did not expose that. and we also -- he does build buildings around the world but why hasn't he released tax returns to prove he has not dealt with russia in that capacity? here we go again. this is your president so here we go again. maria: let's speak facts. go ahead. >> tax returns, the american people don't care about tax returns. >> i care. >> the vast majority said they didn't care, they cared about the guidance and separate ship of this economy going forward so when we look at what michael cohen sense, paul manafort sends at the end of the day this has been going on for two years. it started sooner than we knew about and there's yet to be a determination of actual crime that took place. there is opposition research.
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>> i don't understand this rush with mother's investigation. when we look what happened with watergate we are figuring that out. once the investigation happens, this is how it works. it is ongoing. everyone saying there is no collusion, we don't know that yet. maria: yes we do. >> no we don't. >> there is speculation what might be in the 70 hours and there is public evidence of conspiracy. lot of speculation, we have basically nothing when it comes to public evidence of conspiracy but the speculation is being treated as evidence of collusion. you cannot make that bridge until you have public evidence. >> let the investigation play out. we still don't know there's not any collusion. we do not know that.
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dagen: the michael cohen filings specifically, let's get the facts straight, it is hardly a crime. michael cohen looked at a hotel deal in moscow for 6 months, with ties to the kremlin wanting to get donald trump to do that, the deal fell through, trump made her made the trip. >> we also know hillary clinton paid for the dossier? >> investigate her too. investigate all of them. i am not a democrat. i'm an independent registered. when i see these things happening on both sides of the aisle both sides to be held accountable but i'm not going to say something did not happen when there's an investigation going on. maybe mueller is not laying his cards on the table just yet. we don't know.
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we really don't know. maria: based on the leaks if there was collusion it would have been leaked a long time ago. >> representative shift would have leaked it last year and nothing has come out. >> the report has in all likelihood been drafted and there has been no leaks or anything damning coming out of it, pretty indicative that there isn't any there there. there will be a little bit people will try to spin but there's a difference between a legal standard and what somebody did politically. and political actors. and alan dershowitz was alluding to. >> i don't think it will be a political disaster. >> it is an opportunity to impeach the president. even if he is impeached he will
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be in the white house, bill clinton was impeached and is still there. >> let's distract this because we can. he is the leader of the free world, why throw the investigation because we said why not. maria: thank you so much. they with us as we cover more from the g 20 in argentina. donald trump signing the deal with mexico and canada top of the hour, back in a moment. it was a busy week here, the top moment from the program right here, watch. >> nothing extraordinary, just acknowledging by now several rate hikes over two or three years the fit is close to neutral. there will be some head winds for the next year economy. and some head winds from the effects of the tax reductions in fiscal reports. market gross is going to be
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more normalized but no reason to worry. i don't see an imminent recession. >> another 3 interest rate hikes. maria: has there been any accommodation in academia. >> going to universities and taking the best of the best to china. >> that is an issue we have to have a lot further conversation about. it is good to have international exchanges, important for our students from america and students around the world and we need to do with our eyes wide open with potential for abuses in that regard. >> the impact will hurt us consumers because they will not be as targeted as the first $250. they will not cave in on this. maria: what you might think it's accomplished at the g 20 in the next couple days. are you optimistic about a deal with china.
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>> regard to trade, donald trump doesn't impose tariffs because he's trying to protect the american worker the american economy but because he wants trade barriers to go away. if we have a fair playing field, the american worker and american business will thrive and grow. >> it should not be defending who we decide our ally is an decidedly ukraine in this instance. >> people are getting hurt because this fence is something they can slide through and achieve their goal. if the wall needs to be there is a matter of public safety. maria: what do you want to see happen in big tech? >> passage of privacy regulation put to one template in place for the entire ecosystem whether it is your
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internet service provider or one of the edge providers. >> to try to get them to go to brooklyn. we are happy they decided to go to long island city. >> for interest rates to get closer to 5 presented is closer to what a person thought they could afford. that has slowed us down but the market is still fun. >> to start a business why not change dynamics? we gave it away free to homeless veterans on the street. dagen: how do you figure out what satisfies you? what rewards you? for me it is working with somebody who is brilliant, harder working than anyone i have ever known. >> is my talent to develop skills and use those to do work that gives me great meaning. this is what people are looking for. it really will be a dream job.
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>> the wildfires are out but california is facing the transferring and possible mudslides. share make that is the concern. heavy rain is expected in cities like los angeles, san diego, san francisco and sacramento. mandatory evacuations have been issued for people living where the holy fire broke out because of the potential for flooding and mudslides. those in malibu near the rules we fire put on alert for potential evacuations.
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the search for bodies in the town of paradise has come to a end, they looked everywhere they can for identifiable remains, to reopen part of the town. the death toll stands at 88. incredible body cam video shared by sheriffs attempting to rescue four nurses, the car broke down forcing him to get on foot, turned on his body camera to capture what he thought would be his dying moments, eventually found those nurses and was able to escape the fire. marriott international is close a data breach saying starwood guest reservation database was targeted. this incident which marriott discovered on november 19th potentially exposed information on 500 million people including his names, mailing addresses, phone numbers, emails and passport numbers. marriott taking steps to address the issue, down 5%.
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finally christmas candles are always popular at this time of year. who doesn't love the smell of a pine tree but how about the smell of a horror movie? releasing a series of cinema scented candles based on genres like adventure, music, or, even romantic comedy. if you want a western candlelit snowflake firewood and bourbon vanilla. they are selling for $40 each, burn time 50 or 60 hours, 33 movies to add that up. maria: what does a horror movie smell like? >> i was searching that and can't find it but if i find it i will let you know. dagen: smell like body over because the fright makes you sweat. we want your house to smell like bourbon, drink bourbon. maria: you are a walking air
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freshener if you drink bourbon. >> you are a big musical fan. what do musical candles smell like? dagen: deepens what song it is. her favorite one is the sound of music. i could watch the movie over and over. dagen: it is not time to get you in the spirit. maria: a heartwarming response, stefan kerry response when iy's request to make popular shoes available for girls, not just boys, back in a minute. ♪ do it again ♪ ♪ do it again ♪
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maria: a texas ice upset in the nfl last night. jared back with a win for the dallas cowboys. >> they answered who would be the saints, taoist about new orleans, drew breeze for 10 straight wins, 30 points, 5 straight. nest -- prescott, ellie for the first quarter touchdown, cowboys up 10-0, breeze had 120 yards, dallas stops on fourth down, a late interception by breeze would seal the win for the cowboys and end the saints win streak at 10. cowboys owner jerry jones. >> the scene won't be the same again. this is a change or. these guys are different cats now as they go forward. >> have a game better than the
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redskins. last night in toronto, the warriors got 51 points from kevin durand who forced overtime against the rafters, back to back 3s, stefan kerry celebrating, comes back tomorrow from injury but a celebration short-lived has been win in overtime by 3 with 37. she had the first name of riley, we visited the under armour website and disappointed to see there were no kerry 5s for sale. girls went to rock curry 5s too so steph replied we are correcting this now. i will send you a pair of curry 5s now is one of the first kids to get the curry 6 send to save the date for international women's day and in oakland for the warriors game. floyd mayweather has been
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charged $600,000 because he failed to disclose he had been paid to endorse crypto currency icos, most leah, called sentra whose founders are facing federal charges for fraud. dagen: compensation for this initial coin offering. the fcc don't have the ability to file criminal charges or civil charges but they confine you. if you have a big name they will go after you, they want to make a spectacle to try to discourage, and also -- >> mayweather has to return $300,000 in earnings plus penalties and tax as well but he's on twitter telling his followers this is the crypto currency i'm getting on.
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>> taking advice from crypto currency. >> cynical enough for quid pro quo. we need to disclose a public firing. dagen: you got to say it out loud despite us -- >> look at this great new find he is getting paid for. dagen: catch jared's reports on fox news headlines 24/7 or serious radio x 15. looking at the g 20 summit in one of those areas, signing the deal with mexico and canada, the leaders of those countries will be there, much more in the next hour on "mornings with maria," back in a moment. ♪ of this town. of this town. by 2030, half of america may take after stonington,
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>> welcome back good friday morning i'm maria bartiromo and it is friday november 30th your
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top stories right now just before 7 a.m. on east coast all eyes on biewns signing united states mexico canada agreement with mexican president and canadian prime minister justin trudeau and live comments on that coming up. focus is trade ahead with xi jinping. that's tomorrow. futures pointing to a decline of start of trading this is low of the morning right here. dow industrials down one-half of one percent. s&p down a half of a percent as is nasdaq this after stocks erase gains in final hour of trading market was down it at 4:00 yesterday 27 points lower on the dow. 6 points lower on the s&p and 18 points lower on the nasdaq quarter of a percent. today is the last trading day of the month it has been a mixed month for markets. the dow and s&p are on track for gains but nasdaq down half of one percent in month of november. in europe declines across board this morning take a look at the inked cease down three quarters
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of a percent 52 points lower and a third of a percent lower, and dax index in germany down 60 point one-half had of a percent lower. in asia overnight markets higher with exception of korea. as you see there. we are watching the price of oil this morning crude oil l pressure under pressure over inventory concerns oil is down one and three quarters percent. 50 dollar on crude taking on netflix unveiling new dts of a streaming service what you can. the if you sign up at&t with time warner, obviously, plus a warning for parent who have not bought christmas gifts yet. stores are on short supply of some of the most popular toys this years. get out and get them. twitter most influential selects not number one tell you who they are and tweeted 13 times and person is still the most influential on twitter. all of those stories coming up this friday morning and joining me to break it all down king's
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college professor and economics brian and independent voice heather good to see you. >> nice to see you as well. want to know who that celebrity is 13 times that much power for them. >> you'll know when you hear who it is. yeah, waiting for positive news out of the -- g20 and i think that the kind of presentation that we're going to get with when you have president trump sitting along side the leaders in mexico and canada it sends a very strong message of this is a president who is willing to make deals assuming they're good for american people, and one thing to note that the u.s. and china are exploring a deal to ease some of the trade engs its expectations, potentially as that we call off any further tariffs through the the spring and exchange for negotiations. this is -- like the deals that we agreed to with say europe and japan. the european union where we kind
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of ease trade tensions as we move forward with a broader negotiation. we should point out on u.s. ca they'll do signing today but dagen it needs to be ratified by congress in new year. >> it has fast track status that helps nancy pelosi could in theory as the -- as again she's speaker of the house could try to introduce a rule to remove that fast track status. there's enough in this deal for the democrats. to make them happy in terms of trying to keep union autojobs in the united states and create more union jobs in the united states and i think it push become on tbm is really speaks to how he -- crosses party lines on some of these trade issues. >> absolutely when we have richard trump on remember he was happy with the deal and a lot of people basically said trying doe blinked. >> i don't see that democrats going after u.s. ca they focus
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theirs on tax cuts they don't want to end nasa but they want to repeal tax cuts you're going to see them focus there. average more receptive audience through infrastructure spending as well. >> that's true. we're moments away from trump signing the u.s. mca trade pack along with enrique and justin trudeau and bring you remarks live when had the president comes out this comes, of course, amid rise aring tensions as president prepares to sit down with chinese president xi jinping for a crucial dinner in hopes of slelingsing those trade differences. joining me row former mexico and philippines he's also former deputy director of state former national intelligence director and vice president for the associates john with us this morning. good to see you sir, thank you very much for joining us what would you expect to come out of this we're about to see the president sign the u.s. mca deal as a former ambassador there. what is your take on this signing and how important this deal is? >> first of all it is good.
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i think it is an important deal. let's not forget also it is the last day that he's in office so i think that's important too because -- if it weren't signed today we would run the risk of the new open some of the issues because he's a populist and he was not, you know, as -- favorable to free trade as his predecessor second thing, i think we shouldn't underestimate ability of north america to be some power house platform out there in global economy. both with trade and goods, energy cooperation and so forth so much important that we get along rather than being at odds with each other so i think this will patch up and smooth over some tensions that we've had for last -- year and a half, or between canada and united states and
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mexico so i take that to be a positive as well. so makes me feel good last point, almost 26 years ago to this date, i witnessed the signing of nafta between george bush and brian after carlos and san antonio, texas. so it makes me feel god to watch this happening. >> i bet meanwhile you talk about u.s. being the the power house china also a power house. where are are you on this deal in national economic counselor floated a possible truce between the u.s. and china on tuesday, and ambassador, he highlighted this piece from tuesday's briefing in terms of what remains what are the issues that the president will not did a deal unless the u.s. is positioned well with? do you think there is a chance for a deal with china? or an agreement? >> i was out there few weeks ago they told me they have some proposals ready but they didn't want to table before the midterm
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elections because they might have ended up dead on arrival because just about about anything would be a rejengted at that point. so we've got the midterms behind us. it is not in our interest to have it continuing trade war with china. this second largest economy in the world. and then economy with which we're somewhat integrated unlike russia where we have absolutely minimal trade with china right up there you know in the hundreds of billions of dollars so we need to work something out. otherwise you're going to start feeling pain that china is feeling pain already and i think we're going to as well. so i think it is good that they work something out. they, obviously, can't settle everything. in one dinner and they can give us a sense of direction and i hope it's in a positive sense. and that the chinese maybe will -- make some offer it is in the areas of the merchandise trade deficit intellectual property issues, the investment requirements that they have that
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will be enough to form the basis for some kind of continuing dialogue between us. >> you know somebody on this program made a point that china has come a way in terms of its own innovation you have people there, coming up with new ideas new technologies to enable china to become number one things like block chain technology or robotics et cetera in their 2025 plan. so maybe china understands that intek intellectual property is there and do you think they'll show any willingnesses to change behavior that this president has highlighted? >> well i mean they've certainly heard us. i can't you know i can't predict for sure. but you know they're rash people built their country since 1978. they've got a lot of people looking had at these issues. yeah i think it is possible. the other point you make is excellent which is they've got a lot of new -- innovation of their own now, and
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they're going to have more. i know some topnotch american universities who are leery of cooperation with china on the one hand. but on the other hand don't want to miss out on some of the work that the chinese themselves are doing. in the area of innovation. so you know, cuts both ways. >> ambassador brian here, you know the president is walking into this negotiation having created i think deliberately a lot of uncertainty about attack he's going to take peter was out, with he's back at the table now for dinner. do you see the uncertainty he's creating playing to his favor in terms of getting something out of china that otherwise wouldn't have been the case? >> possibly so. i mean, yeah, it's a signal that he doesn't plan to relinquish his firm line just at drop rf a hat. i think it is a message look you better have something you know that we can really seriously consider here. so yeah i think that's good. on the other hand the chinese
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have been thinking this through now for the fast several months. so i suspect they're beginning to come prepared for this meeting. >> yeah. real quick am bass before you go what would be a victory for this president out of this g20 meeting in your ?riew view? >> besides signing mca positive thing something that could result in a way forward a framework if you will an architecture as i've been talking about in the kudlow story for a way forward to continue talking it be trade with china, without having to implement these additional tariffs. >> if i could this is heather higgins, give it a minute here and go back to putin we have the challenge of the ukraine. what would you counsel the president to do and with regards to russia and the ukraine given the past history that we've seen in crimea, et cetera, this is, obviously, a significant
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concern, he's canceled his one-on-one meeting with putin but what else? >> he may have some side bar discussions with right to cancet under the circumstances. and i think that we just have to continue to be firm in our support for the country of the ukraine working together with the europeans. show that we will not flinch or or falter in the support we extend to country of ukraine and make it clear that that's an important issue in the bilateral relationship are between the united states and russia. >> okay, and then if i could follow up the other challenge we've got here is spreading needle between two allies turkey and saudi arabia. how would you counsel the president on that? >> oh, boy that's -- that's a thorny one. [laughter] that's a tough one that's been kind of a thorny situation for months now. and i'm afraid we're sort of like on a day-to-day the whole
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situation is being looked at on day-to-day basis because of this situation with respect to the murder of journalist khashoggi. j i assume you don't want u.s. to walk away from partnership with saudis? right? >> i think mr. pompeo and mattis made that obvious and so was president. i think in some respects president has been saying what a lot of american presidents have fought before him but he's been more explicit about it saying look we have huge interest at stake with that country. and we don't want to -- you know flush them down the tubes. and we've also got the question of our relationship with iran and we don't want to do anything with saudi arabia which might in some way give an advantage to the country of iran. so it's a very delicate circle to square. >> yeah. we are waiting seeing some afnght on stage waiting for president of mexico prime minister of canada and president trump to take to the podium and
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sign this u.s. mca deal. do you see any risk that congress being the new congress in january tries to slow down this deal ambassador? from getting ratified? >> i suppose it is possible. i think earlier one of you commented that -- there is fast track authority and that mr. trump was happy i saw him in a meeting other day in silicon valley. i think they're pretty happy with that outcome the fact that the content requirements for vehicles made in north america was raised it from in the 60s percentile into 70 something i think there's enough in there and i think mr. trump also knows that there's a huge volume of commerce between our two countries in both directions and it is important that that continue. >> ambassador i want to point out that narrative push by some in terms of president trump being nothing but disruptive and
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not wanting deals we have a relationship that is as strong if not now granted we have a new leader coming in mexico strong if not stronger in terms of mexico and even canada. despite the optics despite the kind of back and forth in terms of words that you see this is -- a three nation alliance and a trading relationship that is still incredibly healthy expiet the narrative of president trump. >> well, i mean, yeah. i think he bears a certain degree of responsibility for that himself because it shall he had likes to talk he used to like to talk about throwing nafta overboard so -- he kept people in doubt that way. but i think quite early in the administration they decided that no, we're not going to abandon the the nafta i think when sunny purdue explained that mexico was such an important -- importer of our agricultural products at that point we determined interest at stake
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were too large that we were going to continue to try to find a way to work this thing out it took a long time. but i took some encouragement from the fact that negotiations kept on going because -- it meant to me look if they were -- if they weren't serious they would have dropped this thing a long time ago but they and heree are, i hope we do sign it today because i wouldn't. the to be confronted with the pangt of a new president in mexico and for him to have to consider and he may clear to mr. trump i'll go along this and signs it. >> thanks so much. appreciate it. thank you. >> ambassador joining us there. we're going to get to argentina momentarily but a police raid on deutsche bank headquarters continues for second day. cheryl casone has that story. >> awaits to get this underway it is part of a money laundering investigation that involves hundreds of millions of euro.
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this is focuses on two deutsche bank employee who allegedly didt report questions, the bank says it is cooperating but shares deutsche bank are falling to all time lies with a stock we're watching this morning. also buyer announcing major job cuts eliminating 12,000 jobs about 10% of the global work force and sell copper tone and drsm scholl's brands along with animal health business and sell us pieces the company under pressure to cut costs and falling sales of over the counter drugs and sales of prescription meds. down 40% this year. at&t planted to launch three different versions of a new wariner media streaming service next year they want to take on netflix they feature movies and tv shows from warner bros. turner and hbo but not disclosed how much it will cost an acquired time warner renamed it and higher in premarket. and then there was this, toys are in short supply at the
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holidays coming retailers wal-mart, target, amazon are struggling to fill the hole left by tois are us closed their stores back in june like hot wheel "jurassic world" hard to come by. the grinch alive and well this christmas. those are your headlines over to you. >> thank you so much. waiting on president to emerge here in argentina top sign the u.s. mca deal with presidents of mexico and interesting to note along with the prime minister of kngtd but interesting to note that this is nato last day dealing with incoming new president in mexico your thoughts. >> i think dagen makes a really important point about this signing of the back drop of what happens with china the president has gotten a reputation of being someone who likes to break things apart but clearly china will watch with this today and say here's a president getting deals done. we're up next. we're ones who look like the
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objectors here that plays into the president's hands. >> i don't us we are -- people in the media are very quick to dismiss things as a photo op and i've said that, you know, over time as well but this is important and it highlights the fact that this president is getting deals done maybe it soothes some nerves about what happens with china. we'll know more after the meeting that president trump has with xi jinping tomorrow. but again, he does make threats about remember the autotariffs imfort threats against europe and truth called there to say same thing with japan. but this is a sign that, we've seen the cooperation between the the united states and mexico in terms of dealing with the migrant caravan, and the problems at the border. >> if you are the media, it is a much more exciting story to say that president breaks things in the president is at risk of
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destroying things. than to say you have to break things in order to build new things. and this is part of a process. and actually he's solving things which had is just not as exciting of a story. >> ands that exciting of a headline that cmn ran this morning that president trump is in a terrible mood. [laughter] dges that was news. didn't know that was news. that was their headline. >> funny enough that's their slogan cnn -- terrible mood. [laughter] to get -- i tell you what my mother says about has said for years about cnn why does everyone look like they're smelling something. it is those candles they have -- >> interesting to note in this room in buenos aires sarah and press secretary so that the team from the u.s. is -- is well. represented and, obviously, mexico and canada likely as well. we are waiting we just got the
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about a minute away -- when the president will come out discuss this. it is also worth noting that this deal is a better deal for unions. is a better deal for workers, and that was widely agreed upon on both sides of the aisle as i mentioned richard, the union leader was on this program saying that deal is very -- >> that's why democrats can't oppose it when it actually comes to approving it because it has more bipartisan appeal than original version of nafta why are you going to stand against that? president is going to get -- going to get a win here next year when it finally gets ratified. >> since majority in fact senate is -- is republican. so we'll wait on that. other than commentary about why this is a positive, they will likely toward ratification talk about that when three leaders emerge on stage we're awaiting on that. any other news we're expecting to come out of this? >> in terms of --
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i think it is going to be people trying to read the tea leaves i hope that we find out in terms of what happened with china. i hope that president trump comes out, i mean, we can hope and i don't to guess i'm the not gopg to sit here and act like i know what kind of mood he's in. as you mention -- [laughter] but television fake television psychologist, but i think that if you get in terms of the chinese relationship, if you say, we're not going to hike the tariffs at the end of the year to 25%, we're going to hold off on that and we're going to hold off any tariff added to chinese em ports at least until the spring give them the the six month window. i'm not saying that -- i would not characterize that as to china. to bending to china's needs. but just trying to give them breathing room and markets do matter to this president he does look at the markets. yeah. >> but if i can say i have been saying this last two years all
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of these deals and not only deals but the -- entire negotiation dance around the deals that breaking and then coming to an agreement, yes american people are an audience. yes there's an economic impact. but perhaps one of the chief audiences for this in trump's mind i suspect is always been china. it is to show them that he will stick it out and stick it to them not engaged in same type of extended negotiations that go nowhere that characteristic to negotiate with china that's part of why he's gotten in the room. [laughter] you know, he's playing good cop bad cop all the time simultaneously. you should not expect any confessions from the trump administration until he's got something solid from them that he feels that he can claim as a win. >> but you brought up the mood
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headline, and i say this to people privately and i've said it on the air we can debate all day long policy. but there is zero point in sitting here and debating somebody's personality. it just does not matter. >> all day long at the end of the day results matter and this is a major result in the democrats know they better vote for this, and ratify it after it signed this morning. because he will rip it -- he will rip it off. senator elizabeth warren is already against the deal you know that she said she's opposing u.s. mca she said you know in a speech recently that -- look it is not going to create jobs it is nafta 2.the 30 not going to stop outsourcing or raise wages it has already raised wages and been a positive in terms of wage because people are expecting that wage withs are going to go up for union work ergs as a result of this but elizabeth warren said she's not voting for this. >> she can say that because she
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knows it is going to go through and she'll never get blamed for being one who keeps it from going through very easy thing to say that fact is if chips were on table there's no way she would oppose it because there are too many people in her camp who see this as positive mood that is a statement made knowing nothing is going to come. >> markets are definitely expecting something in terms of canada and mexico i think that market has definitely priced in that there's going to be a new deal let me bring you in ken management ceo thank you very much for joining the conversation here again qhald you say about this u.s.-mexico canada deal from the markets perspective in terms what have the the expectations are? >> i think market likes it and market likes when countries can work together to find some common good and a absolutely a lot of bickering because they don't like when we with get results but so far speaks to thelses and it finds better footing to get along together and trade together ands that's
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nature of things. >> that's a big negative we see any upset from this so we have breaking news right now and leaders of mexico and canada walking many to sign the u.s. mca agreement right now. the revised trade pack replacing nafta. let's listen in to the president of the united states. >> thank you very much. >> we're gathered together this afternoon or for a very historic occasion. the signing ceremony for a brand new trade deal the united states, mexico, canada agreement. so important. i'm hon or norred to be here with president enrique pene a great friend of new mexico and prime minister justin trudeau also a great friend been a battle and battle sometimes make great friendship, so it is really terrific with our signatures today we will formerly declare intention of
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three countries to replace nafta. with the u.s. mca, a truly groundbreaking achievement, modern day agreement, i want to thank you as trade representative boblight houser and entire team for tremendous effort and the efforts that they've made the all throughout the last almost two year period. thank you as well to jared kushner, secretary of state mike pompeo. secretary of the treasury steve mnuchin, and director larry kudlow for their hard work and untiring devotion throughout the the negotiation process. peter navarro thank you so much for work that you put in. and so many others. the u.s. mca is large e-most significant modern or balance trade agreement in history. all of our countries will benefit greatly. it is probably the largest trade deal ever made also.
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in the united states the new trade pack will support high paying manufacturing jobs and promote greater access for american exports across the range of sectors including our farming, manufacturing, and service industries. as part of our agreement the united states will be able to lock in our market access to canada and mexico and greatly expand our agricultural exforts something we've been wanting to do for many years. this is an amazing deal for our farmers also allows them to use cutting-edge biotechnology eliminate nonscientific barriers. our nations have also agreed to innovate new measures to ensure fair, competition and promote high wages and higher wages for u.s. and north american autoworkers those are tremendous ben beneficiary at least 75% of our
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automobiles content must be manufactured in north america. and 40 to 45% of automobile content must be manufactured by north american high waged labor in order to gain access to our markets to stop autojobs from going overseas and it will bring back autojobs that have already left many, many jobs are already planning to come back. many companies are coming back. and we're very excited about that. land mark agreement includes intellectual property protection that will be then have i of nations all around the world. the u.s. embassy also contains robust new provisions on digital trade and financial services and most ambitious environmental and labor protections ever placed into a major trade agreement anywhere at any time. we have dramatically raised standards for combating unfair
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trade practices, confronting massive subsidies for state owned enterprises, and currently if you look at it currency manipulation that hurt workers in all three of our countries the currency manipulation from some countries are so intense, so bad and it would hurt mexico, canada and the united states badly. we've covered it very well in this agreement new provisions will benefit technology and development leading to much greater growth and opportunity throughout our countries and across north america. in short this is a model agreement that changes the trade landscape forever. and this is an agreement that first and foremost benefits working people something of great importance to all three of us here today. president, i must say pineto and
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justin trudeau we've taken a lot of barbs a little bows and we got there it is great for all of our countries. thank you for your close partnership throughout this process. this new agreement will ensure a future of prosperity innovation for mexico, canada, and the united states i look forward to working with members of congress and the u.s. partners i have to say it has been so well reviewed i don't expect to have much of a problem to ensure of our agreement i want to wish you the best this will be your last day in office so that's a day when you can sign something so important. but we really do appreciate it. i think i can speak for justin when i say that. [applause]
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we both agree he's a special man and he's really done a good job we appreciate him very much. thank you. so i just want to congratulate you on ending your term in office with this incredible milestone it is really an incredible way to end a presidency that happened -- you don't see that very often i look forward to working with lopez many years to come and our relationship i know will be a very good one. we've had -- great conversations that i think we're going to have a great, great relationship. and i would now like to invite the president and the prime minister say a few words and perhaps we can start with with justin and we appreciate it very much. thank you, justin, please.
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good morning. thank you all for being here and thank you to president trump endonald thank you for your word this morning and pulling this event together. and enrique this as donldz said on your last day in office, it is a wonderful pleasure to see you and to be here on this historic moment. [inaudible conversations] canadian prime minister juicen trudeau there along with president of mexico ninto going
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through u.s. mca deal and joining us to talk more about that. more from mahony also joining conversation is price future group energy analyst phil flynn thank you for filling in. let me kick it off with you with oil and the stock market here in the face of this signing, the impact, your thoughts. >> well i think the impact right now is that more trade is good and it is going to be good for oil demand in the future but what we're seeing in oil market this morning, obviously, is fears of a slowing economy and that's one of the concerns that we're here today. so any movement towards a trade deal, obviously, is going to increase the odds that this market can can find bottom. >> can when you look where oil is right now you have to wonder what it is telling us in terms of the global economic story right now and whether or not it is flowing considerably your reaction. >> it is reminisce of january
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16th if you recall oil is 26 a barrel but velocity 26 in january 2016 but 58 again. but velocity way it came down ising shopping yes more supply but you look under hood and say what had is going on here and that's a concern we have of 2016 at that point the the fed did the same thing. they're talking about raising rates and all of those things are happening here we are back in rates similar to what happened in early 2016. >> phil we just keep bobbing back and forth here. we talk about demand questions when it comes to global economy, but then as soon as that picks up you've got the supply question again and there's so much supply available. i just do you really see us breaking out of this die signal that i can we've been in isn't this kind of going to be the the story one way or another for quit a long time to come? >> i think this weekend is going to answer that question. because this is the probably most critical weekend in the global oil market you've got the g20. you've got -- saudi arabia and russia talking about a production cut here.
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and right now you know, one of the reason why oil dipped down today we have data out of china manufacturing so there's this slow down question. the problem is that you know we keep talking about this oversupply but it has not as large as a people think. if you look at global demand where it is really it's -- the spare production capacity in globe is still very, very tight so at the end of the day, i actually think that my concern is that this oil selloff is signaling the wrong thing. we could cut back production too much and actually end up with a tighter market at the end of the year. >> it is dagen it is a balance ing act in terms of this drop in cost of crude oil and fuel prices so it helps consumers here in the united states we saw yesterday consumer spending registered biggest gain in october, and seven months but we also have an energy complex in this country. that is growing that is healthy, and if oil gets much below where
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it is right now, that could hurt say -- production in the state of texas it could hurt the job market. right? so it is a balancing act. >> absolutely. we are at that point too i would say 50 is outline in sand. we saw back in 2016 when prices went below that area, bankruptcies and pullback in u.s. production. >> justin trudeau speaking english again let's get back to him. [inaudible conversations] >> he was. [laughter] >> it is hard work good will and drmings, confident we will get there. our shared interest, along with u.s. trade representative boblie beginning of this process. i would also like to thank ambassador david chief negotiator steve refuel and their talented and extremely
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hardworking staff. once again, thank you all for being here today. mercy beaucoup. [applause] [inaudible conversations] >> we're waiting on we'll get back to president niato interesting to note what justin trudeau said that gm closures are still a real issue and big blow to both countries canada and the the u.s.. he says we have with more work to do but we will get there. so while justin trudeau is talking about -- positive results of this new u.s. mca he's also put out there and making it obvious that canada --
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did see a blow as a result of closures for gm. dagen. >> ultimate we need to point out ultimately one with of the main reasons that gm is cutting its almost 15,000 people, and basically closing the production of smaller cars and so it is healthier because these are cars people for the most part wants to make higher margin products but we talk very much about what this deal does for autoproduction among the the three countries. between mexico, the united states, and canada. it should ultimately help the the job market for automanufacturing here in the u.s. and canada. because it requires that in order to be a duty-free car produce in north america 75% of the content has to be produced in the region and 40% of the content has to be produced by 16 dollar an a hour labor. have specifically discourages automanufactures from moving
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production to mexico for cheaper labor which was a huge issue -- think or for the the likes of general many tores. >> a nice safety net and it is because it puts percentage that holds people accountable and countries accountable you dent see these type of deal but here we are with percentages so forth that really helps out union workers. >> one the storylines with gm closure is that it represents something bigger in the economy oh no look what was happening in gm that means that u.s. economy global economy, slowing down, but to dagen point this seems much more like a gm specific question trying to put themselves in a position to deal with a slowdown to not be caught in the same situation they were in a decade ago wouldn't you agree? >> changing behavior we like suvs and we like these light truck so forth cars that specifically closing down again didn't have those sales so you can call a execution and consumer behavior all of a those thing bus not seeing massive layoffs throughout autoindustry
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but mass layoffs so at least specific to these cars, not really selling well quite frankly. >> also fair to say that -- ontario premier said that real problem was carbon tax that justin trudeau is bringing in not these larger -- you know trade taxes that trudeau own policies were what was being so adverse to gm creating jobs in canada. so there are multiple analyses here. >> a lot of layers. markets have been real volatile ken i want to get back to you on a second in oil maybe that's one of the reasons markets have been so volatile what are you telling clientsed to at this point given these whiplash that we're getting. >> i would say that's a big deal what happened. making volatility great again but really we can't call it bernanke but you can see
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flexibility because october third speech so far away from neutral now we're close to neutral so we went from raising 3 to 4 times in 2019 to maybe raising once or twice in 2019 it was interest. be careful what we ask for we want lower rates and raise rates but if they don't raise rates something sells not going on so well but careful just kind of -- but at least he's flexible that's most important thing that week. i can't say the perfect stake in that but hes out feeling of investors. >> powell flexible here but we heard about him talk about trade corporate debt is a big deal so one of these reports where where you say fed will back off a little bit markets were happy about that. but don't get too happy because there's signs here that they're maybe more concerned about some of these risks than they were six months ago. >> tariffs are risk and -- the the minute from the federal open market committee meeting that came out yesterday, tariffs were mentioned by my count at
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least a dozen times in the minute. and i have said this and it does play into the gm decision. that the steel to aluminum tariffs what if you've got the -- the trump administration to lift those tariffs on canada and mexico but they have added cost 700 million in added cost just to general motors that's equivalent of 9,000 jobs. potentially -- so that plays into this decision and certainly not the primary driver. but again, policy does matter. and it impacts companies. >> they like four rate hikeses 4% and that won't happen, of course, and laying off those potential rate hikeses does at least help investorst we dealt with midterm elections. one of the trifectas of this perfect storm. then china trade, and now this one here. at least he's flexible most important. >> markets expected to open lower. phil jump? here because we're looking at a oil at $50 a barrel what would you say is the breaking point for the shale producers?
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i mean at some point, when you see oil coming down as much as it has been, you have to start worrying about about production profitability from shale producers, right? >> you really do. you know i'll tell you this. the the top oil producers in the shale pass are already struggling at these price levels you know probably 20 out of 24 of the top producers were struggling to make money even when oil prices were at 70. i talked it a few shale producers just the other day and they say listen, we're already starting to pull back. in a lot of them have a lot of debt maria, and bankers are getting a little bit worried with oil prices getting close to 50. >> is that -- does that create problems for stock market as well with oil where it is right now? was that a positive given fact that -- gasoline prices go lower and that's more money in poem's pockets. >> i don't know if people are feeling it that much at pump 80 a barrel down to 50 a barrel. i don't think we're seeing that much of a change at the gas pump
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but it does give people confidence around holidays autoa good holiday shopping season between cybermonday and black friday so overall consumers going to like it. but again we can also have issues in the productivity of oil. >> we're waving three leaders now sit down at the table to sign the deal behind them freeland from canada and robert from the u.s., and, of course, representative from mexico as well. as they watch with their leaders sign on dotted line and make this deal real. >>st it's -- this is a big move for president trump and it's a big win for all three of the countries i show i think it illustrates the the ties that bind us economically, and in terms of an important trinity -- [laughter] in terms of an economic alliance, and he said he was going to tear up nafta he didn't tear it up but renegotiated it. >> this is a big positive for the president. and he kicks off his g20 meeting
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with this. on the signing alongside three leaders even though justin trudeau has what issues with the closure but nafta trade deal ensures stability for canadian economy and lifts risk of serious economic uncertainty. and -- and i'll pingt out as president is putting out his very well known john hancock on the deal, that trudeau did say to the president to president trump that we need to keep working to remove the tariffs on steel and aluminum that is still a point of sticking point but u.s. dairy farmers are going can agree to drop its complex class 7 system so bos our dairy exports into canada even more. we already have a trade surplus with canada on dairy but this will help them that's critical to trump voting base as well in midwest in places like wisconsin. >> this is a big deal to kick off g20 meeting now focus likely turns to china.
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and what happens next -- as you can see the leaders have left the stage, have signed agreement, and have gone off of stage. we are watching their reaction markets are lower this morning. not necessarily any news out of buenos aires but in erming terms whether we're seeing a slowdown in growth there's president chief of staff and treasury secretary in the room, along with peter navarro who did a lot of work on this trade deal to make the change whats to nafta. >> again looking at this back drop i mean we're going into most important conversation yet with china. on trade, and the beginning back drop is these three individuals sitting down and signing a deal that was very difficult and until the last minute looked like it would not get done. i think that bodes well for the president he's showing china i can get things done he's saying can you because world is looking at this right now, and they're seeing progress they're seeing
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something happen. >> it is great momentum future is down 130 but monday up 350 dow point tuesday up about 100 wednesday 617 points so you know, in last thanksgiving week dow future down 130. let's note forget this is last day of the month do you see this move as anything as a result of money manager shifting allocation on the final day of the months? perhaps? >> you can see some of that probably a volatile day but traders can't get too far ahead so dynamic but everything neutralize a position, and you know have a weekend risk speak and kind of get out of the -- >> with the president sitting down with president xi on saturday dagen. >> something we didn't really talk about that much yesterday but certainly discussion among investor on some smart brain on wall street i can't wait for you to talk to ray in the next hour. but that the market reaction to the jay powell comments on wednesday was a little overdone that they read too much into what he was saying and that kind
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of just blow kind of neutral neutral level on short-term interest rates but there's been discussion is about that. i think that you're seeing that reflected in the markets yesterday and certainly heading into open -- >> and read aring too much in yesterday, a function of a correction of the reading too much in the time before. and what we're really seeing is -- an emphasis on said policy is really what is driving the market. i think for data driven staples from powell, you're seeing the markets thelses or conscience and he's now very conscience of these -- the primary affect that this is having on markets. >> you're watching dative point and watching data points but now we're have data dependent and inflationary now raising rates. >> the core we got yesterday the personal consumption index which fed watches came in below expectation up only 1.8% year
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over year. >> a raising of rates. > kennel good to see you thak you for weighing in great conversation gentlemen. we appreciate it. the deal is signed. between the the three leaders in argentina we'll get to g20 meeting as the day developing. stay with us. we'll be right back. an august to remember, starts with a december to remember at the lexus december to remember sales event. lease the 2019 es 350 for $399 a month for 36 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.
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>> the u.s. mca is largest most significant modern balance traded agreement in history. all of our countries will benefit greatly. it is probably the largest trade deal ever made also. >> well breaking news this morning president trump and the lead percent of mexico and canada just signed the united states mexico canada agreement that is usmca revised trade pack replacing nafta we're following that and looking at the impact of that.
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we're talking more about that this morning. in terms of the impact on markets and where we go from here. it is a positive certainly for markets that we do see this, this sign this morning. bring in aaron lavigne bank of consumer and good to see you aaron thanks for joining us. you feel this deal only furtherses confidence in markets and investing today. >> absolutely if you saw what happened over holiday season right it was a record-breaking, you know, cybermonday and just overall spend to now add this signing should only help encourage the confidence as we go forward here. >> did you see consumers thinking about and responding this is a very high level issue but it does hit consumer pocketbooks. do you see consumers making that connection? >> consumers are, obviously, so now on social media and on the internet and so many more people are engaged right not only with overall political process but these kinds of issues, so yeah. i think it does impact and i think that fact that we saw such a good holiday spend and sort of moving now to this deal, i think
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we'll see people say, this is a good sign for 2019. >> all right. it is a good sign for 2019. we actually have to see this ratified by the congress. and we'll see, i mean, senator elizabeth warren has said that she's not going to vote for it. but by all accounts it looks like democrats are going to be onboard because this helped unions. this helps labor. it is better for labor than the nafta was isn't that right taigen? >> it encourages particularly say autocompanies removes incentive for company to move production to say in mexico for cheaper labor. it also, i think, it extends patent protection for some drugs to up to 10 year it is even opens up more dairy imports into united states and canada there's a number of things that trade deal does and it sends a signal to the rest the world that we
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are willing to negotiate provided that, it doesn't get dragged out i know there's something to say about this that companies don't take advantage of the united states and don't try to hoodwink us. but we're willing to sit down and sign a deal if it is good for all three countries. >> meanwhile you have a new merrill edge survey this morning aaron that you brought showing what americans prioritize when it comes to relationships. you say more americans say they want to partner who provides financial security over head over heels love. tell us about this survey. >> ties into what we talked about the stability about about and what we've been seeing as i've come on the show where he talked about that lack of security and people are really searching or it right everyone is living longer with a concern about how do i finance any retirement student debt and general uncertainty so with all of those things this is saying everyone is clearly focused on -- finding someone to help them be a secure in their financial. >> it is interesting to look at this survey because you've got, you know, people care about financial security but when it comes to how quickly do they
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talk about finances and open with their partner answer is they're not very open. they don't want to talk about this even though they're looking for it. how do you deal with that ?fnlg especially debt so it is 60% say they do not want to talk about debt they have, and again i think that's a function of people feels like they should be in a better place. and that's unkivel and -- it is really why -- you know so many deter getting a partner be -- [laughter] exactly. welcome to the game and now i'll give you all of my debt but i think key is that's why people need to seek advice that's key to it. >> this is not a surprise result there have been been surveys done for years they find same thing and if you think about it. human beings -- once you strip away rational part of the brain and emotional part of the brain when you get down to primal part is to rival, and survival requires the certain level of financial security so that, obviously, gets prioritized in over the money part. >> it does it. >> sadly we're a credit card culture people don't know how to
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save and plan and talk about these things. >> try to make them better and try to help them. >> aaron great to have you so much. bank of america stay with us. we'll be right back. this is not a bed. it's proven quality sleep. the new sleep number 360 smart bed, from $999... intelligently senses your movement and automatically adjusts on each side to keep you both effortlessly comfortable. it can even warm your feet to help you fall asleep faster. how smart is that? smarter sleep. to help you shed those sugar cookies,
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maria: welcome back good friday morning thanks so much for joining us this friday morning i am maria bartiromo. it is friday, november 30 your top stories right now 8:00 a.m. on the east coast, all eyes on buenos aires this morning g20 summit, president trump signed the united states is it a mexico canada agreement along with mexican president pinot nieto canadian prime minister justin trudeau last hour here is what the president said about this deal. >> we're gathered together this afternoon for a very historic occasion. the signing ceremony for a brand-new trade deal the united states, mexico, canada agreement. >> markets this morning did not react, we have looked at a decline before the signage now
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dow industrials remaining lower in triple digits down 130 points one half of a percent expecting s&p lower nasdaq down 28 points almost one half of a percent lower on nasdaq after stocked edged lower he regulation gains a volatile one at the end of the day, about down 27 points on dow close s&p gave up 6 nasdaq down 18 a quarter of a percent lower last trading of the month mixed dow and subpoena on track for gain nasdaq down one half of a percent for the month of november in europe this morning declines across the board take a look, we've got ft 100 down two-thirds of a percent as dax in germany, in asia overnight markets mostly higher at the close, with the exception of korea. there is klachaos onboard high-speed chase with border patrol in congressional a detailed crash the latest coming up major problem for gen about electricity the
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giant reportedly facing new investigation over insurance risks employees say they ignored the risks stock down another one and three quarters percent 7.80 a share ge all those coming up to break it down fox business network dagen mcdowell, the kings college professor business and economics brian brenberg independent women's voice ceo heather. >> on trade next thing busy weekend. maria: now on to china trade having dinner tomorrow night. dagen: right next to that is a big question mark. actually about 50 question marks, because you just don't know because there have been mixed messages from what we've heard from coming out of white house coming out even from the president himself. >> i think the president likes it that way don't you think. dagen: yeah keep -- on your toes he likes stock market going up, again, more clear messaging about what we have in store for china he likes to
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keep his -- people negotiated with guessings doesn't really work. >> trump was being inscrutable shall we say chinese have a long track record how they have stunning economic growth they've had by having an incredibly uneven-playing field, as well as practices that are really kind of frankly abhorrent of intellectual property theft et cetera, and that is how they have fueled this extraordinarily rapidly expansion over years don't want to give that up never had a negotiating opponent called them out on it made he them stick with maybe make concessions. maria: they are playing their cards close to vest. dagen: like espionage really? stealing? espionage? >> won't admit what they have been doing. >> i was speaking with larry wlar couple weeks ago he was extremely you frustrated with
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chinese their impression they wanted a talking game didn't actually intend to concede going to have very hard line if getting actual concessions. >> president sitting don with president xi tomorrow saturday in argentina by all accounts the president signing the usmca deal with canada and mexico a victory for the president this hour we more arrive at game. 20 summit we will continue to follow that, blake burman in buenos aires, along with the president with the very latest now blake, good morning to you. reporter: maria, good morning to you certainly one of the president signature achievements had vowed to get rid of nafta renegotiate it today the president signed into compensates usmca did so standing eye long sided mexico' outgoinging president and canada trudeau, drying this as a winner for north america especially a winner for the industries relating to agriculture, and autos inside
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the u.s. >> this will help stop auto jobs from going over ceaseas brg back jobs that left. >> could temper circumspections how auto works could be benefited forward the white house the president belt furnished by gm recent decision, because they believed the usmca helps thank you auto industry or at least would help auto industry listen to canada's justin trudeau. >> knew agreement lifts risk of serious economic uncertainty that links throughout a trade renegotiation process, up certainty would have got-s worse more damaging had we not reached new nafta but when faced with this challenge canadians came together rolled up their sleeves canadians from every order of government, and walks of life, put their countries' interests
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first worked hard to chief a new modern knifed agreement will protect nobodies strengthen middle class create new opportunities. >> important to note that the u.s. mcli.a even though signed by ladders usmca needs up or down vote by next congress as you know democrats will control the house one of the outstanding questions is will congress give this a full go ahead come to 19 as for g20 in argentina, the meetings are under way president met with the president of argentina this morning, tomorrow night, is the big dinner between president trump and president xi of china as we goe know going into one meeting will not happen not being meeting canceled with vladimir putin. >> true blake burman argentina this morning, ahead of the president meeting with the chinese president, at g20 summit american farmers are working harder to sell
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remaining soybeans among the tariff dispute jeff flock live in illinois with updates on that good morning to you jeff. reporter: there is nobody more maria wants this deal with china more in an american soybean farmer you are seeing extraordinary scene this is illinois emergency bags of soybeans they've so many soybeans don't have bin space to store them because of drying up of chinese market look at exports chinese export as a matter of fact now has dwindled to almost nothing -- down 97% selling more in europe, and markets, huge scott. >> we are seeing markets dried up the record yields we're seeing yield curve for soybean corn tremendous new records for production in central illinois midwest raft three or
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four years. >> take a look at numbers on percentage of our export market to china. >> well over half of the market is now 3% right now how are are farmers dock? >> i talked to farmers early said we're willing to give the president some rope on this are they getting freaked out? >> they are patient right now, and they have been with the price support payments but patience starting to run thin producers i talked to -- >> i want the leave you two things maria one the price of soybeans right now we've loss the $2 a buschel on soybeans president thought about it merge payments doesn't make it all right. >> no, they want to make plans right now need serendipity in the marketplace, and they want they don't want price support payments they want to be able to grow the crop, and be able frou it sell it on market have certainty in the marketplace total sense. >> second thing i want to leave with you that is corn
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sitting out they have no bin space for this that is sitting sout like you remember before a commodity futures market crops rotting somewhere because there wasn't a place for them that is the scene, that it looks like right now because there is so much crop, and export markets drying up, tough, tough. maria: great reporting jeff flock illinois this morning, joining us rights now to talk about this california congressman john garamendi good to see you thanks very much for joining us your thoughts ouvenlt smca deal you saw president sign nafta agreement usmca deem. >> with mexico and prime minister of canada are you supportive of this deal. >> i am concerned about several pieces of it we have to take a look what is actually in it now, going to affect some very serious very important parts of our economy. we were very, very concerned in california when the president blew everything up about a year ago, year and a half ago, by basically
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threatening to dump nafta totally very serious disruptions in agricultural markets at least in my part of california. and he you talked about it with regard to soybeans i will tell you that the trade negotiations better now than it was a year ago, when the president turned everything upside down, i think trudeau said very well, the chaos has been settled down, and that is a good thing. is it a good deal going forward? well it is for some places certainly, the upper new england dairy market going to be in better shape overall did not solve many problems we know exist across the line, and general motors knew well ahead of today what was in this agreement, nevertheless they decided to lay off 15,000 people and not change their manufacturing systems here to produce the kinds of cars that americans want. so what is that all you about? how does that future into this new trade agreement that the
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president said is the very best ever? it is okay, it is better. but it is actually is a -- a way of -- dealing with the chaos that he created early on. maria: are you willing then to delay this in terms of ratification in new congress? because of your worries here? is that what you are saying. >> no, i am no the saying that at all. >> okay. >> i am saying we are going to take a good look at this my understanding is not quality controling up in next two weeks lame-duck session will be in new congress i know none of us want a continuation of trade wars with canada and mexico there are good things in doubt about it the drug issue, is a very important one. maria: yeah. >> we do know that the extension of the -- patent for another 10 years is likely to delay the introduction likely certainly will delay the introduction of generics and, therefore, not allow for lower drug prices a major issue that the democrats campaigned on. maria: that is a good point
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congressman let me ask you about southern border three people are dead this morning 8 injured after a truck fleeing border patrol agents struck a road spike flipped over yesterday, this comes with the president threatened to shut down if funding for border wall is not insured with you going to vote for money for the board wall. >> democratss consistently said we will vote for board security including improved board walls where necessary and useful we offered as i understand senator schumer's office in billion and half dollars i want to make one thing very clear the arctic ice is mementoing we have to have icebreaker what has happened here is that we are the president wants to trade a border wall for -- does not want to allow for the
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expenditure of icebreaker absolutely necessary for american security in arctic ocean as ranking member coast guard maritime wait a minute we are looking at a choice between a border wall most everybody said isn't going to solve the problem at border for an icebreaker i know we have to have what we call a polar security cutter otherwise we are simply back up the arctic ocean to the chinese and the russians we cannot do that we have to make choices here, yes, we will do money for border security, including improved fences balls where useful but not into just a headline of five billion, 25 billion dollars for a big beautiful border wall dwoouvenlt solve problem there are many things have to be done including dealing with economic and social problems in those dprunz which premium are fleeing have an dur as
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guatemala those countries those issues if not resolved, they are al going to be people fleeing to america for a better life. the other part of it has to do with reneed to obey america laws when do provide is for asylum we can't shut the place down, that is contrary to american law. so we need to get this squared away we got to move fast all of the shouting and screaming and get down to actually solving the underlying problems including border security which i assure you democrats have will continue to support wise border security. >> how are you supporting board security if you are bringing in new ideas like this icebreaker as a way to slow down the -- the border funding? . >> don't misunderstand me i am telling you that we have to make choices about how we spend the american taxpayer money, we absolutely have many things we need to deal with we need to deal with arctic with
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the border also you just gave can capital early on, about some of the choices we need to make. maria: yeah congressman good to see you this morning. thanks so much. >> john garamendi joining us there. we'll be right back. my ancestrydna results revealed
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it gives me so much respect and gratitude. this holiday, give the gift that's connected millions to a deeper family story. order your kit at maria: welcome back, former ge workers reportedly say risks in the company insurance business, were consistently ignored cheryl casone with details. cheryl: yeah, maria "the wall street journal" is reporting that a several former ge employees followed investigators the companies insurance business failed to acknowledge worsening results over several years the investigation, by sec started after ge closed a shot fall in refshgz long term policy would require more than 15 billion funding look at shares of ge under pressure in premarket down more than 2 1/4% right now. well, marriott international disclosed a major data breach
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says the base was targeted they discovered november 19 this exposed information on about 500 million people. that information includes names mailing addresses, phone numbers e-mails, some instances passport numbers mar ideologist shares sharply lower in premarket down almost 4% right now. >> well pay le. >> taylor twist influential person tweeted 13 times score of 98 out of possible 100 good for her president trump near top of the list behind former one direction singer. katie perry kim kardashian lovato a mix of a list. maria: followers on that wow, thank you. coming up awaiting arrival of leaders to g20 summit in
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buenos aires, argentina live as updates come in this develops up ahead i will sit down with bridgewater associates fourn getting specifics on trade markets a looming debt crisis join us for that coming up 10 minutes' time. ♪ ♪
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maria: world leaders in buenos aires, argentina this morning kicking off g20 the summit among ploordz theresa may facing her own political crisis over britain exit from eu holding firm on december 11 parliamentary vote firm on
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britain will exit the european union for exclusive interview rocco forte thanks for joining us. >> great to be here. >> as we get into your business continues to expand, now in italy, your thoughts on what is taking place on the world stage the g20 happening here trade big issue for many leaders, and, of course, you also have britain exiting the european union. >> well -- exiting is the wrong word o at the moment if this deal goes through it is a complete disaster for britain effectively britain is putting itself in jail handing key to european union saying to european union, you decide when we leave and on what terms, 95% of businesses in the uk are not involved in trading with europe, only. maria: 95%, only 5% gdp is
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involved in cross border trade 5 a percent trade with the rest of the world we have no trouble about with borders, all this sort of scaremongering going on about what will happen if we reef european union without a deal we trade under wto rules the rest of the world no reason we should not do that with european union. >> what do you want to see what kind of a deal do you want to see for britain. >> i would like a free trade deal, but this what is happening now is effectively tying yourselves to european union potentially forever this is completely unacceptable worse than munich. >> you have 11 luxury hotels reports in europe middle east soon shanghai as well a long time family business four generations strong congratulations on scientific it what do you want to see out of perhaps a deal with china? are you watching what is happening in the g20 between president trump and business
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leaders and impact on things like your hotel business? >> well -- you know, at the end of the day, people have traveled around the world, across the world for many years, i don't think that is going to stop because there is some disagreement -- china and united states, for example, i have hotel in st. petersburg never so successful as today an increase in american visitors to that hotel this year and british visitors despite shenanigans going on. >> which countries that you are in i notice opening a hotel in pulia when countries look weeconomically when stronger versus weaker in all countries in which do you business. >> generally the -- the
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countries -- europe exception of germany have weak economies lie relatively unemployment because of system makes it very difficult for business to operate, labor laws make it impossible to dismiss anybody, er corporate taxes are very high. labor costs 45, to 55% of wage costs so it is not an easy continent to operate in compared to uk united states. that is what worries me about staying closely tied to europe all that will come to the uk. >> that is the worry quick before you go, you also own capitercowhat are expectations here tell us about. >> it uk five million catholics, united states 80
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million, going for 130 years in uk. there is no -- national catholic weekly magazine, in the united states. so we think a very good opportunity and at this moment church is a bit of disarray in america. so we are going to be a conservative magazine going to be very -- open in its discussion of the issues. and i think would be very interesting for serious catholics who care about their fate. >> first forte into media congrats on that thanks so much. >> coming up i am sittinging down with bridgewater associates founder ray dalio perspective on trade markets looming debt crisis ray dalio up next waiting arrivals of leaders to the g20 summit in
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maria: welcome back. good friday morning everybody thanks for joining us. i'm maria bartiromo. it is friday, november 30 your top stories 8:32 a.m. east breaking news leaders are arriving to g20 summit in buenos aires, argentina last hour president trump met with leaders of mexico and canada signed united states mexico canada trade deal players of nafta. >> usmca largest most significant more than balanced trade agreement in history all our countries will benefit greatly. it is probably the largest trade deal ever made also. maria: investors waiting for president to meet with chinese president xi jinping he what that will mean for trade fight with china comments from u.s. trade representative lighthizer this morning saying he would be surprised if that dinner was not a success,
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markets this morning, are trading lower, we are off lows of the morning actually maybe it was that comment from bob lighthizer dow industrials expected to be down 60 points a quarter of a percent lower s&p 500 down five nasdaq down 10 points fractional loss in morning we are expecting a lower opening for the broader averages, in europe this morning, similar take a look arrows down across the board ft 100 down who points cac quarante in paris down 8 points the dax index rather in germany down 40 points a third of a percent, to asia mostly higher exception of korea kospi index down one percent best china shanghai composite up almost 1% stop story this half an hour history in buenos aires live look at world leaders beginning to arrive at g20 summit, president trump signing the usmca deal with president nieto and prime minister trudeau last hour in a fox business exclusive is pushed to of bridgewater associates author of the book
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principles for disclosing big debt crisis ray dalio here thanks so much for joining us the book has been so resonating with people, because we have a major issue in terms of debt, and i want to talk to you about that let me get your containing first what is happening internationally here we have worries about china, and u.s. not sure what will take place at dinner with president xi what is your take in terms of of the u.s. china's relationship right now. >> gone from a cooperative relationship to as confrontational relationship recognizing china and the united states are essentially, in a struggle for -- world dominance essentially. >> basically it. >> so this is much more important than trade. i think the trade matters can be dealt with but i think that there is a way of being way rel, and i think there are going to be issues beyond that, this
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will be with us for a long time. >> of you said that how do you deal with a dictator in chief obviously you've got business in china, and have you been forced to transfer any technology? as a businessperson? >> no i haven't been forced i want to emphasize that, i have a lot of respect and admiration for the way they are operating. now it is a very different way of operating, okay. it is a top-down way of operating right? it might be good example would be video games, they decide that kids won't watch certain types of video games only watch them a certain number of hours; right? maria: that happens -- >> in united states parents decide that kind of thing the essence of difference top-down versus bottom-up thing like china inc essentially leaders deal with best way of letting the whole country view parts
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of the country not having the same rules in terms of disclosures able to follow in the direction they wanted to go if they want to take care of education system in a certain way, they get it done. and that has been what they believe is the modus operandi for success that has gone back to 500 bc basically evolution confucius knowing where you have united states told to me as from chinese leaders perspective a bottom up individualistic society come together value individualism and work up that conflict way of being essentially element as we operate in this world together, bumping into each other a lot of different ways. maria: democracies can be sloppy a democrat takes time decide whether or not video games are safe or not debate
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back-and-forth between congress and executive office so you are right, i mean completely different, can u.s. exist dealing with china as a partner when they've you know the programs the approach governance are so different? >> i think that is the real test of our time you know. history has shown that when there is a rising power challenging existing power that is a risky situation that has happened 16 times in the last 500 years in 12 of those times there has been conflicts. i think it is the challenge of our time. it can happen i think, it has happened insecure four of those cases but i think there needs to be the question of how you are with each other, and a risky situation. so when we deal with that issue, we're -- there is the possibility of war, i am not -- that is a big statement, but over a period of time this type of conflict it is
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inconceivable you can being have that kind of conflict when you have that situation in existence that means behaviors change means for example are currency independent? can they produce things in one country, and have it delivered to another country what are the supply lines? issues like that have business and market implications. right? so these types of issues will be with us i think for a long time. maria: how important is this usmca deal with china and mexico? these are largest trading partners looking at again a free trade situation between three countries, and i guess this is in some cases canada blinks, because this is a better deal for workers for labor, i think but there are still things to fix according to justin trudeau how important was that for investing world. >> i think it is very important, again, when we think in this geopolitical way now more, that that zone is very important.
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the ability to have independent production in that area, and to attract it that affects chinese american dynamic, too, because as mexico is being used in many ways that china might have been used that affects that dynamic so deal with mexico was very supportive of the relationship in our part of the world. >> which is important we are watching the fed and interest rates the markets welcome up swing after yesterday's federal reserve minutes giving off a dovish tone going forward. your thoughts on the federal reserve's approach raising rates obviously that caused a lot of volatility we couldn't have had rates at rock-bottom levels for much longer. >> this thing happens over and over again that is the cycle that is why i wanted to capture that cycle in the book so people are aware of it. but we're this later part of the cycle; right? credit is buying power. you put out credit when you want to create demand.
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when you then get to later in the cycle where we are a unemployment railt down so on you get a tightening monetary policy then you change the relative returns of asset classes like 3% across the board. pretty much you can get 3% without risk, now, as an interest rate. and across the board so now the comparison of asset prices is different, what will returns of equities be all of that slows up and starts to squeeze the capital markets first. as the capital markets start to squeeze that starts to squeeze the economy. so that is where we are. when we think then how the federal reserve will behave you think how much buying power you roughly speaking 3% in form of interest rates 3% times duration price sensitivity of assets essentially what they can do to assets let's call that 30%, maybe they can have -- that is the kind of power that they have, how they are using that
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power is a very -- putting on the brakes stimulateing the gas, is a delicate exercise that is why we have recessions but we are late in cycle comparetively late in cycle assets fully priced that is where we are. >> what is your sense of potential slowdown on the horizon that seem the issue growth we're worried about growth slowing down had 4.2% growth earlier this year second quarter 3 1/2% gdp third quarter do you worry about a sharp slowdown on the horizon? >> there is a hump in the growth that comes from the fiscal stimulationings that happened particularly through tax cuts, very stimulative, produces a large deficit that stimulation comes now earlier, produces the harm. then as you get into next year then you begin to have that fade and you have to borrow a lot more money and lend more
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money to the rest of the world has got to lend money to you. that situation means that you next year you are going to have a significant slowing next year. >> this is really where debt comes in i want to talk to you about what you've written here the debt that we're talking about on a federal level 21 trillion-dollar different from corporate deductibility from consumer doeblt markets have not focused on this, at all, recently i sat down last week on this program, with the bank of dallas president, robert kaplan here is what he said about the current government debt rising. >> my concern that at the government level is increasing debt to gdp is a tailwind right now we've got a big spending agreement that was made last year, we have a tax reform tax legislation all that is providing stimulus. the problem is in the medium and longer term that tailwind can turn into a headwind because we are likely going to have to moderate our debt
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growth. maria: are you have looked back at didn't and compared this period, back to the 1930s tell us about the current situation in debt and how worried -- >> well, was exactly right, creates that hump. so we are -- we have a lot of debt that has to be sold to the rest of the world and they are over weighted will holding u.s. denominated debt includes places like china so as a result of that, that is a vulnerability. we have that vulnerability very much like 1930s biefrg picture economic cycle from 1929 to 1932 we had a debt crisis in which interest rates hit zero in 19 same thing happened in our financial crisis, 2008, 2009 debt crisis interest rates at zero as a result both cases they had to
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print a lot of money. and that printing a lot of money bought to buy a lot of financial assets, and that pushed financial asset prices also widened wealth gap populism now and populism them many ways an issue around the world, with that proud the economic cycle higher asset prices. in 1937 federal reserve started to tighten monetary policy we have a very similar set of circumstances analogous then we also have this situation of a rising country in form now of china, then rising country, so there are many parallels with the 30s i think the point is that monetary policy has to be delicate. and err on the side if anything of accommodating, that greater element of growth because if we have a downturn i think the downturn will be difficult both because of
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political confrontations that are existing domestically in form of populism and internationally i think we are in that delicate situation will be evolving next year year and half. >> what are chances that have downturn we will take a look at that when we come right back. more with ray dalio, stay with us. the world is alive as you can see, this time of the year is so much more than a bow and a tree. (morgan vo) those who give their best, deserve the best. get up to a $1,000 credit on select models now during the season of audi sales event.
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maria: welcome back, want to take you back to argentina,bin salmon crown prince of saudi arabia arrived at g20 summit
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in buenos aires we will follow this tell you what happens next but mbs on the ground at g20 we know that the other leaders are just flowing in, little by little we will take you back to argentina as news develops joining us, continuing our conversation, in fox business exclusive is founder of bridgewater associates ray calio ray we were talking about potential for a downtown do you see a you downturn coming a downturn will come again right. >> a downturn will come again i think worth during considering what it looks like i would say you know maybe a 50% chance, within the next two years. but it -- it will come. and that is why, i think it will be very different it will be different because of the issue of the populism, and it will be different because of the fact that the united states will be selling a lot more debt. so i think when setting monetary policy when we think about behavior of markets, we
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have to think about how this next one will be different. maria: i am glad that you are studying have written this book on big debt crisis because debt may very well be a catalyst for potential of downturn let me mention premises for navigating big debt crises ray dalio's book free online >> i want to make people aware of that cycle, look, buying is mostly on credit. and credit is as giving power but creates debt means paying back by definition creates cycles those cycles happened basically same way over and over again so what i did i went into 48 debt crisis all big debt crisis last 100 years show how they work i think if individuals don't know medics of them policy makers don't know mechanics there is no
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place to go when you nourishment oat one provides a template now to have you ask yourself each person reading it where are we in that template? and there are two basic big debt cycles the short-term debt cycle we talked about we think of a business cycle recession put credit in stimulate it, then tighten credit and then markets tighten and go down, that kind of movement and then there is a long-term debt cycle accumulation of those has to do with how close you are to zero interest rates, and then at zero interest rates the printing of money so i have tried to make that clear so people can put things in perspective. maria: such an important thought ray dalio thank you you are my guest on wall street this weekend i want to ask where growth is, stay with us on that ray dalio thanks for joining us good to see you. we'll be right back. place, the xfinity xfi gateway.
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>> trouble for facebook social media company chief operating officer shorthand bering reportedly caught asking for research on company opposition kristina partsinevelos with more on that. >> past 24 hours "new york times" reporting sandberg asked employees to look into george soros, the liberal billionaire whether he had financial interest in the fall of facebook ak had he shorted the company shorted the stock of facebook, this request from mishaped bering according to "new york times" in january right after george soros took stage at world economic forum bashing facebook, google calling them menaces they wanted to know if he had any financial significance from the shorting of facebook. keep in mind "new york times" recently put out a report saying that they too facebook hired a republican pr firm called did he fineers to look
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into soros, if he was behind antifacebook movement stock share price, i didn't see it january 30 earnings coming out projecting 2% decline in earnings per share there you go, really actively flat 138.67 back to you. >> kristina partsinevelos new york stock exchange expecting lower opening for broader averages this morning stay with us final thoughts when we come right back.
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>> we in the united states need to be very clear. we are entitled and we are right to reject chinese violation of the rules, rules that don't cover unfair practices. we're right when we're against that. but when our position is to china can't succeed, and that china is not allowed to succeed or somehow wrong for china to succeed, that's an untannable position for us politically and
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untannable position for us economically. >> that's a preview of tonight premier episode of wsj at large at out 30 eastern after maria bartiromo wall street and my special best will be ray dalio thank you for all star panel. >> maria bartiromo -- "varney & company" begins right now. stuart over to you. >> thank you maria and good morning everyone. the summit off and running, with nonstop action, we've already seen this signing of a new nafta deal. by the way it is now known as usmca, the president says it is a win for american farmers and manufacturers. next up, china trade. heavy economic pressure on china. political pressure on president trump. okay. i'm going to go out on a limb. i think there will be a truce, a cease-fire, and by the way, trade guy, robert light highser said, quote, he would be surprised if saturday's dinner was n


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