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tv   Bulls Bears  FOX Business  December 31, 2018 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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jamie just got exchanged. congratulations. i'm so happy for her. >> a great way to celebrate and thank everybody watching us. have a great happy knew year. >> happy kne new year. wall street celebrating one more rally in the books and the end of the year that couldn't come fast enough for markets. this is bulls and bears, everybody on this very last day of 2018. i'm david asbury. we've already started the party. joining me is heather, jonas and rick. stocks logging their worst year since financial crisis of 2008 driven by fears of a trade war, worries about global growth, concerns about rate hikes and the political chaos of an increasingly dysfunctional political system. when all is said and done, what do you think was the biggest
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market mover obviously to the dow side for the year. >> you used the word dysfunctional. that's being very generous, my friend, david. the main words from me is slow down. i believe that the foreign markets topped out in february because months and months in advance they saw a slowdown in europe, in japan, in china and then finally it hit home as we are not immune. and all of the sudden all of the economic statistics here, the norm is a surprise and expectations to the downside. and i suspect it's going last into the first couple of quarters of next year. >> i see a slowdown coming but i think we're far from a recession. the fund man fundamentals remai. goldman sachs saying growth may slow. gdp growth for next year. we're going to avoid a recession. i think we see a slowdown but
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not a recession. >> we may avoid a recession in 2019. i think we can't say we're going to avoid a recession. i would probably argue that it's going to happen more early 2020. >> debbie downer, ray. >> the facts are the facts. but i got to throw the word trade in. i don't know how you have this conversation without mentioning trade. it was a huge impact on 2018. if the president is successful with the chinese, that could change a lot of things. david: what facts? there's no facts from a recession. >> facts is a bad word. >> after the fact when they call a recession and you'll know it by then. they're always calling it late. i think the year-ended on a good note. it was getting very scary. but this is our worst year in ten years, down less than 10%. that's why america is so great np in china it's down three times as much for the year. you can make the case that investors got sick of so much
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winning this year. tech stocks so high, so much enthusiasm it rates too much. everyone thought we were going to have inflation, it was too much of a good thing and investors took money off of the table. it came crashing down. it's good that we turned around. when you go through that level the chance of a recession, the chances of going down 30% or 40% go very high. it's hard to go down more than 20% in the stock market and not have serious problems. david: you're absolutely right. investors did get sick of winning. the president said it. we thought it was a joke. as bad as the market as been for the whole year, the dow jones industrial, just the last five days, including the 600 down day of christmas eve, up 3.9% in five days, s&p up 3.7%, nasdaq up 3.4%.
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i know what you're going to say. you got to put it in context. yes, you're right. but i had to mention that. it's been a good five days. >> but look, 462 dow points for the dow side had to bounce from somewhere. i did not mention recession here but i believe we're going to have some recessions around the globe. the other part of the equation, which i am watching closely is debt. the debt market. i am starting to see corporate bonds being rated lower into junk. and of course we can sit there and talk about how much debt globally. there's $250 trillion of government debt not to mention how much corporate debt around the globe. that's the head wind i'm worries worried. if anything takes us to recession, it will be that. that's something i will promise you, every big investor is watching right now. >> that's the problem with raising interest rates is the servicing cost on the debt payments has to go up and that's why, not just from an individual
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standpoint but corporate and even government debt, that we have over 20 trillion in federal debt here in the u.s. right now and can we make enough money to service our debt costs if interest rates go up. that remains in the forefront of every investor's mind next year. >> i don't know that interest rates are going to be as big of a story as we get in the new year as we felt that it was at the end of this year. i wouldn't be surprised if the fed stays static or if they increase at all. >> speaking of debt, we should mention that mortgage debt is almost where it was in 2008. i'm optimistic. i'm not a debbie downer about what's going to be happen in 2019. on the other hand, you got to keep an eye on debt. >> that all matters. debt has to be eventually paid off. and if economic numbers go south, it is tougher to pay it off and it turns into what we call a vicious cycle. and when there's so much leverage in the system, that's
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what makes it worse. that's why i have my eye squarely on that right now. markets don't go down 20%, 25% for no ordinary reason. you don't have all of these industrials, housing and housing related materials all at two-year lows, not just one-year lows. i think they're speaking up about something. i i'm pretty sure we're going to find out in the next six months and i'm keeping my fingers crossed it's not so bad. >> you're ruining my new year's buzz here. it's one of the reasons that our country is so much better than japan. you want to see consumers borrowing. one of the problems is rates were going up too high for mortgages. consumers stopped borrowing. in fact i'm hoping interest rates, to rick's point next year, aren't a big deal. that was what got things falling fast this year. the fed was too hawkish and the
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longer term rates were going up because the economy was hot and it was causing problems. we don't want the rates to be that high right now. it raises interest points to our government, a has a lot of debt to borrow. i like the levels below 10% mortgage rates, a little lower than they were a few weeks ago. the problem is a scared summer that doesn't wanconsumerdoesn'ta problem. >> i think too much debt sucks and it has been the downfall of so many great economies throughout the years and i believe this central bank enabled all of it and has nothing about it. not to mention. >> it was the downfall of bad economies like greece and italy. the countries that use debt properly. i'm not defending all of the borderline junk debt. but in g general leverage an
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economy that's financing smart moves, smart businesses grows faster than other countries. it's reckless, debt in countries where they don't want to pay for stuff. and in china where it's government engineered and they're building with debt that doesn't make economic sense. you've seen some problems. but sensible private market debt, it's one of the reasons that we do better than other economies. it does blow up every so often and there's bad lending like in '07 but you would rather see the debt levels climb. one of the reasons the economy was so week in the last ten years. >> no one was spending. >> but you also have to key in on the word jonas said, sensible debt. somebody has to tell gary that the bah humbug holidays is over. there's a reason to have concern about rising debt in households. we could be repeating a pattern here and that scares me. david: by the way, i want to get on trade. i'm not as worried about rick is.
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i think for president trump for all of the rhetoric -- he's got a lot of rhetoric on china, the root of all evil, but he knows he's not going to get reelected if the economy is sinking and he knows worries about a china trade deal is one of the reasons the market was so bad. if it takes making a deal that's not perfect with china i believe he'll do it to make sure that the economy doesn't tank and to make sure he gets reelected that's why i'm optimistic. >> i believe he's do it too. if you look at his tweets with respect to the market since he was elected in the past, he is a friend of the markets. and if chinese traiz tensions are putting pressure on the markets, that's why he's addressing it. he's extended an olive branch to president xi. they had great talks or at least he said they made big progress. who knows how big it was. according to president trump they made big progress on
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saturday. and in return china is also sending trade officials here the following week. i agree with you. i think something will get done very soon. >> i agree with david. that could have a big impact. the problem is we all know what china really does. they tell you're going to have a deal, they agree to deals, they never follow the deals. i'll tell you what. if the president follows the prescription david just suggested we got a lot to talk about in the new year. we're going to be very very busy. david: well we haven't finished with this year yet. we've got a lot more to talk about this year, what happened this year and what your predictions are. the panel will be giving us their predictions a little later in the story. first, 2k78 senator elizabeth warren taking a big leap closer to a 2020 presidential run. why big businesses and investors should be interested in the platform she's going to be running on.
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more on that coming up next.
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blockbuster sales of its cancer drug. elizabeth warren putting her toe, more than her toe, her whole foot in the water in terms of the 2020 race. she's formed an exploratory committee for a possible presidential run today. her announcement coming a year before the iowa caucuses. warren is the first high profile democrat to take formal action towards a campaign. she's expected to continue with her attack on corporate america. take a listen. >> these aren't cracks that families are falling into. they're traps. america's middle class is under attack. how did we get here? billionaires in big corporations decided they wanted more of the pie and they enlisted politicians to cut them a fatter slice. david: of course it's big business' fault. how far will her message get with voters, gang. >> i don't think very far at all, david. and what she fails to forget is that most of the billionaires, the richest men and women in the
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world, definitely in the country are in silicon valley. they're probably some of her biggest backers. so a war against the wealthy right now might not be ideal for her as a winning strategy. >> i hate to admit it but heather has a point there. look. >> it's okay. david: don't need to admit it. >> she has a lot of good points. it was a smart thing politically to be the first in, this early she's attract some donors sooner than others. but don't get excited because she ain't going that far. >> yeah, you know, first of all, there's a strong progressive message out there that attracts voters and there's one that evil billionaires are stealing money from the middle class. something a little more like these are the golden gooses and we want to melt the eggs and not hurt the gooses and encourage the goose to live here and pay for the wonderful infrastructure that other people can't afford
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out of their own income. no one wants her more into the election than the president. pete hegseth did an interview recently. we should take a look at that, elizabeth dipping her moccasin into the race. >> elizabeth warren will be the first. she did very badly in proving that she was of indian heritage. that didn't work out too well. i think you have more than she does and maybe i do too and i have nothing. so we'll see how she does. i wish her well. i hope she does well. i would love to run against her. >> she says she's in the fight all of the way, mr. president. do you really think she believes she can win? >> that i don't know. you would have to ask her ike psychiatrist. >> the woman has been a successful professor and started, which was kind of a good idea, the consumer finance protection bureau. but the deliverable to the consumers, the voters, the
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middle class being robbed by billionaires has been weak. during this teen you tenure we'd krit to coin scams coming and going, penny auctions coming and going, sports gambling increasing, scam calls, so little they've actually done for the consumer. been some good things but it hasn't accomplished what it was set out to do. >> i've bfn hearing this same socialist bs since my bar mitzvah. it never changes. the rich are bad. the middle class are being screwed. and the problem with somebody like elizabeth warren is that she's just socialist with our money. with ourselves she's quite the capitalist and made a ton of money. they're all about rules and regulations and fees and fines and mandates and taxes because they think they're smarter than the people in this country that are working their tail off to improve themselves. it's just tiresome.
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going on too long. david: her message that the middle class has never been worse off, i don't think it's going to resonate. the middle class, there are more jobs now than ever for middle class, ever ever in my lifetime. that gives folks in the middle class for leverage to get their wages up. wages are going up. more jobs, higher wages, more buyer power. i just wonder whether her message that this is the worst time for the middle class is going to pass. >> i really don't think it will. >> it's a 2008 message. >> it's a 2008 message. not now. i think president trump has won over a lot of the middle class. so i'm not sure that's the right message. she should be having right now. but her ambitions are no secret. she's had many town hall meetings in areas of massachusetts where the president carried those eras and she's been demanding tax returns for the irs to release tax returns of anyone running for office.
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that's no surprise as we know that she has been demanding president trump release his tax return. that's been a theme of hearse. >> so i'm going to agree that her mitch was a much better 2006 pitch and there -- 2016 pitch, sorry. and there are a lot of democrats out there that feel like she missed her opportunity by not run in 2016 aren't feeling a lot for her here. at the same time, yes. i agree the middle class is better off than she's painting it. i don't agree that the middle class is as hooked on the president as they were back in 2016. and i got to ask the question, did we really need that final remark by the president? >> who is in the democrat party that thinks about lower taxes, stronger business, less regulations. the people -- david: you should have run, rick if you're the one. >> you haven't said anything i don't agree with and yet i'm a democrat because i support
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workers. of course i also support unions. so you got that problem. david: gary and rick can come together here because the fact. >> i love ric. david: there are a lot of people like ric in the democrat party and their voice is being shouted out. >> they're not being heard. yeah. yeah. i think moderate democratic voices in the democratic party like rick's aren't being heard, david. i think they might be being drowned out by left-wing liberals like liz weather warren and nancy pelosi. that night be the problem. we need more democrats like rick. >> there's more than you think. we'll see how the dialogue goes over. >> jfk could not be elected at this point in time with the way this party is going. >> that's possible. >> they continue to be for more and bigger government, less and less of the economy. they are more of being the hoover vacuum of our taxes in order to solidify their power pep and it never ends. and i keep waiting for one day, that one person on the left that
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maybe is close to the middle that i can actually listen to. i can't even listen to any of these people that look -- david: we're forgetting something else about jfk. he was a war hero as well. he really had it all. he may still have been elected. but there's nobody like jfk running. >> we only do it to aggravate you, gary. david: that's not true. we love gary. facebook shares suffering their worst year ever amid a barrage of scandals. ceo mark zuckerberg has one title no other billionaire in the world would want.
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david: facebook having its first annual loss ever since the company went public in 2012. ceo mark zuckerberg has lost a reported $22 billion of his net worth. that's more than any of the 500 hu500richest billionaires leadig some to speculate that he might want to take a lesson from google founder larry page who andy cans learned says sets a good example by keeping a low profile on google and having a second on whom he can blame anything that goes wrong. is that what zuckerberg should do in 2019?
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what do you say, going. >> this company is the single most instructive company to the tech base and possibly triggered a lot of the problems in other companies by drawing so much attention. i can't feel too bad for somebody who lost $22 billion. my new year's resolution is to have $22 billion. that said, i kind of think cheryl sanburg is the fall person. half the time we see him is when he's dragged around in congress shaking him down for smog. something. but this company has a problem. not so much with instagram, particularly facebook. abroad it's a useful country and the services exceed the negatives in a country that doesn't have the media that we have here. here they've done a serious damage. i don't see an easy path out of that without major firing. maybe that will happen, new front-end ceos and we'll do a larry page and disappear other
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than when the government shakes him down which is going to continue more and more. >> i think it was buffet who once said it take as lifetime to build a relationship and -- a reputation and 20 minutes to lose it. and i think that's what happened here. look. they're heading farther south than the ne new york knicks sean at this point in time. they're losing millennials and arguably mr. zuckerberg did not do a good job on the hill. i don't know how they're going to get it back. it's a shame to watch. and if old story that when things are at its best you need to be your most paranoid. i think they forgot that. the stocks are down and i suspect it's going to go lower. >> the question is it too late to bring back myspace. they've got serious problems here. i don't think 2019 is going to
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be enough to fix them. i think eventually we get over it if they do the right things and do the right most. moves. they're in the dog house for a while. >> the lesson is that the ceo should stay out of the spotlight. look at elon musk's fate with some of his tweets and behavior. and larry page has it right, staying out of the spotlight has helped him as being founder of google. >> i would note the difference is, though there was definitely some cases this year of elon musk going damage to the company, including sec fines, he's adding a lot of value by tweeting a lot. he can sell a flame thrower just on a tweet basically. i don't know where this company is benefiting at all from zuckerberg being in the public space at all. >> i hear you. i think having a lower profile sometimes helps more than hurts and i think it's a good lesson that you always have a strong second or number two.
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is cheryl sanburg really that person for zuckerberg. >> the other problem is they become -- they used to be a great community and they still are but they become a data collecting monster and for me a stalker. if i was in alaska and i wanted to google a tour with some siberian huskies and i went on a computer, five days later i could go to facebook and there would be an ad targeted to me. i'm not sure i signed up for that. david: i agree with you, gary. i feel like i'm a little stalked. with alexa, you say something and you're getting inundated with all of these ads. but the point that andy kessler was making specifically was that larry page put the head of google as the front man and if anything goes wrong he can pin it on him.
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zuckerberg hasn't figured out the same way do with that cheryl samburg. >> she is not a good front person and he is a terrible front person. there are good ceo front men and bad ceo frontmen. you can't throw them in and say all ceos have to stay in the background. just get a good one. >> essentially the revenue model is very similar. it's basically hyper tracking us and selling off that information. google has gotten away -- their brand is still strong and they've done things almost as bad as fieb. facebook. on a mobile phone when you type in a word it's just ads. you have to scroll down to get to what the core business used to be. you don't know anymore what is the real search. david: the problem is not a slow creep. the problem is there are too many creeps and they're all looking at what we do. we've got to get the creeps out. coming up, hundreds of
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thousands of americans are fleeing some states and moving in droves to others. what's fueling the mass exodus and why you may want to consider it as well.
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david: performing stocks on the nasdaq for to 18 we got advanced
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microdevices work day and athletic workout company lulu limlululemon. hundreds of thousands of americans are fleeing high tax states for states with lower taxes and friendlier to jobs. where does your state fall and will local governments finally be able to change their tax and spend ways to keep wealthy taxpayers from taking off? joining us to break it down, jeff block is joining us. jeff? >> i'm on the indiana/illinois border. indiana is welcoming a lot of people that are moving from high tax illinois into low tax indiana. take a look at the numbers in illinois. this was the biggest loser when it comes to population in 2018. 114,000 people moved out and
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even after births and people moving in, they lost 45,000 people. it's one of nine states actuall, you'll see whether your state is a winner or loser when it comes to population. nine states lost population in 2018. many of them high tax states like new york state, connecticut and hawaii. why is this? while, there is some evidence it's because of taxes. if you look at the states that have a progressive tax -- and illinois is proposing that this year, the new governor wants a progressive tax in illinois, in the last year they lost 300,000 people. if you look at the states that don't have an income tax, they gained 339,000 people. can't make this up. that's what people are doing. apparently they're voting with their feet, guys. >> you look cold and wet outside. new year's eve celebration happening behind you. but to your point, it's not that people are moving because of the
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weather. yes, there are 1.2 million people that are moved from other states to florida since 2010. but there are also people moving to where you are, there are also people moving to the frigid state of new hampshire out of new york. andrew cuomo, governor cuomo actually blamed the weather on the ma mass exodus in new york. but as we know from where you are right now, that is not the case. >> it's easy to see that. illinois and indiana, they have the same exact weather and illinois is losing population, indiana is gaining it. that argument is kind of -- i would love to be in california. i know you guys don't like california. but i tell you, if you got to be somewhere, you might as well be in a place that has good weather. that's my view. >> money, people, capital and business will tend to move where it's treated best. i've been looking at statistics
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for many a year and i'm surprised that some of these states do not lower the taxes. some of the burden in illinois, new york, new jersey, california, is beyond. i'm sitting in florida we have no income tax and the numbers in florida. >> rub it in. >> -- are skyrocketing. and they can talk about weather all they want or disney world. but the fact of the matter is low taxes is a magnet for business and business people and they get it. >> to your point. >> we're going to get taxes here in illinois. we got a new governor coming in. he wants a progressive income tax. we have a flat tax now. he says he wants the wealthy -- and he's one of the wealthiest people in america. he wants the wel wealthier to py more in tax. he says that's only fair. more tax, not less. >> and you said you liked california and you said connecticut has high taxes. there's a little more to this
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story, low taxes are going to bring business and retirees. your state has to do one or the other. it can be a low tax destination like florida or it's got to deliver a quality of life and a workforce that companies wants which is why california succeeds with the highest taxes. whwhat you don't juan to be in n no man'sland in connecticut, raising the corporate tax and companies like ge left and the houses prices are at 15-year lows because of this. there's no other reason to go there, unlike florida. california can make it work. you've got to be able to deliver the infrastructure, the workforce and the taxes. >> there's an assumption that we're making here that i got to call out. i lived in california when people started leaving after the north ridge earthquake. that was the driver then. losing that population wasn't such a terrible thing, i got to tell you. the thing is, they came back
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when they found out they didn't like where they moved to. yes, you do lose some population when they get fed up with this or that. but we see in california they often come back. why? because of the quality of life. david: and you have silicon valley and hollywood. i want to say something about two liberal local politicians who seem to have at least on one company example seen the light, that's mayor deblasio and the governor of new york, andy cuomo. both of them gave billions of tax breaks to amazon. now to placate those who say they gave away too much, they're going to spread the tax deductions out. sometimes local politicians get forced to do the right things. i think if enough people move out of illinois, maybe not california, but enough wealthy people move out of illinois, they're going to be forced to do things like cut taxes.
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>> the people moving out of chicago, for example, a lot of people moved out of chicago. you know who the biggest group that has moved out of chicago, it's been middle class african-americans who don't like the violence in their neighborhoods. wealthy people have tended to move into chicago for the reason that you're talking about, which is it's got a lot to offer. it's a great city. beautiful in the summer. i could do with less winter. but it's got a lot going for it. if you have a lot going for you, you can afford to jack the taxes up a little bit because people want to be there. david: you mentioned pritzker who is a billionaire who is now the governor, he just doesn't seem to get it the way a lot of people -- we were talking about liz warren before. if you're in an elitist category you don't get what's important to the middle class. the middle class wants to do well and be rewarded, not pay politicians for the work they do. >> it doesn't affect the wealthy.
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it hurts others from becoming wealthy because every sphep up the ladder they have to may more and more into the system. and when they start with one tax, you know what happens the next year. you get a second, third and forth. it never goes away. states come out saying it's a one-time tax for the next year and 30 years later it's ten times the amount and still around. david: you know that's true, right? >> that's true. david: got to leave it at that. jeff, get out of the rain finally. you've been out there too long, my friend. you deserve a little cover. thank a lot. netflix claiming its latest original film was viewed by 45 million people in its first week. is this the future of the movie industry? that's next.
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amazon both having a banner 2018. shares of netflix up 38%, amazon up 28% as all of the tech giants as we mentioned were cashed in on demand for streaming successful tv shows, movies and specials. in fact netflix latest movie was a success saying that 45 million people have watched in the first seven days alone. critics say we need more data about whether those 45 million really tuned in. but is streaming the future of the movie industry? what do you think? >> it's one of the futures of the movie industry. i wish i had a tub of popcorn for every time i've heard that the new thing that's come around is going to replace everything. there is one thing that will always be constant no matter how you distribute it. con tept is king. make a great film, people are going to come see it no matter where you put it.
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>> you know, i don't want to like -- they're so successful, these companies. they've gotten good at making quality entertainment. i don't want to live in the past. these shows are really great. way better than '80s tv. it's a little too successful. there's something creepy about how many hours you spend and it starts playing the next one and then 45 million people, you're plugged into the matrix, it's targeted to you. the ads are what you want to see. and i don't think we know what we're going to be like at this path of change in 10, 15 years. >> what they said about television, jonas. >> well, i think there was still a social element. you went to the movie. i know people still go to the superhero movies but the way it's tapped -- i'm curious the hours. with the internet that number is so much higher.
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which is what you want to see. you're getting feedback, you're getting likes. and it's like a drug, that they thought tv was going to be from the radio but is now finally doing the brainwashing. >> i lived through my sons and they don't know what tv is. they stream everything. they got netflix, hulu, a fire stick, i don't know what that is. i just wish i was one of these great comedians or actors right now. netflix is paying them ridiculous amounts of money and i keep thinking they're overpaying but they keep getting the job done. and every time i look at the earnings report it looks pretty darn good but eventually they may hit the wall. i cannot believe what they're spending. but so far it's working. david: $13 billion they're spending a year and that's expected to go up to $22 billion in the next two years. >> and to gary's earlier point, they borrow the money, the producerproducers which is kindf
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weird. >> the studio studios do too. >> it's working, paying off for them. and big media mergers like disney and fox are going to continue in 2019 because you have to merger, expand distribution and content to compete against netflix and amazon prime. traditional daibl, it may go by the wayside unfortunately and cable is very expensive. >> and one thing about it, it's very expensive to produce these things, they're in control of the marketing, of the licensing, of the merchandising if there's any of that. so when you do produce something in-house, you safe a lot of money on the back end. >> and you also get it on the bacthat.merchandising is where e all of the money. those days are over. you're right. they keep that in-house. think about what you just said. of course cable tv will go by the wayside. that's the way it's supposed to be because you can stream right
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into your television set now. who knows the difference. right? content, content, content, content. >> let me just say that movies are charging too much for milk duds and popcorn. david: quality production. i saw roma. it's going to get at least one if not several academy awards. probably deserves it. a really fine film. the panel is going to debate what they each think will be the major business story of 2019. stay tuned.
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david: as we said, it was an ugly year for 2018 for the markets driven by concerns about trade, global growth, rate hikes. but what will be the biggest business story for 2019, gang? >> i think in 2019 big tech regulation is coming whether you like it or not. bipartisan support for protecting your user data from facebook selling third-party -- your user day to to third-party
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apps. i expect that big tech will be hit hard by regulations. >> i completely agree with that. you know, my big issue, as we go to 2019, look, i'm always hopeful but i'm watching how european banks are trading. some of them trading beneath the price they were. i'm wondering if something is up. as i said earlier in the show, i'm watching this very very closely. i think it's real meningful and i hoping it's not the worse -- david: i got to ask you, what do you think is going on, gary? >> i think there's a lot of leverage that we don't know about in the system. remember that word that nobody talks about anymore. derivatives that almost brought the house down in '08. there's a lot of things tied to it. i don't think these things go down five, six, seven, eight bucks and everything is a-ok. i keep fingers crossed that it's not biggie. but when the banks trade so badly it usually is something.
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>> interesting. i'm sticking can trade. i think the president sets the stage when he tweeted that he had this great meeting on saturday with the president of china. if he can come through with something that the country looks at and se, okay, in the first quarter, it sets the tone for a decent year. if he doesn't come through or if the country doesn't buy it and thinks it was just political, that's going to make it a messy situation. >> remember, they have the marcs agreed upon. $200 billion worth of goods at 10% now is the tariff of chinese goods will go up to 25%. that won't be good. >> but you do realize this is nafta deal that they really didn't change much even though it was said to be the greatest thing in history. i think they're going to come out with something. they're going to say a deal is done but i think it's going to be nominal and both sides are going to say how great it is and hopefully for them the markets react well. i'm not so sure. >> i'm not sure people are going to buy it. if he does a nafta 2 and you got
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it exactly right, gary. there's nothing particularly -- i mean a few things in the new nafta deal. if he does that with china and can't point to something sirius having to do with the theft of intellectual property, we're going to be on this show not buying it. >> before i give another negative prediction for 2019, i would like to say happy new year to all of the bulls and bears fans and i think america will dodge the recession that's going the hit the rest of the globe. but on a negative note, i think facebook is going into the double digitses. the ceo cheryl sanburg is going to be shown the door and there's going to be a spinoff of instagram if this continues. david: you said sanburg is going to get fired? >> yeah, somebody has to go. >> wow. debbie downer. >> and you know why i agree? because facebook has a ton f
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lencton ofleverage and margin ak everything is okay ingoing to come back. as of today with the market up 250, it was down two or three bucks so they're still selling at these low prices. david: with all of this negativity i'm going to come out with an optimistic prediction. i believe what is going to happen, as i said before, this president knows more than anybody else that he needs a good economy in order to get reelected and he wants desperately to get reelected for the good of the country. and as a result of that he's going to come out with some kind of deal with the chinese. i think the chinese are already aware of that. they probably worked on all of the details, even though they're going to try to take it right to the last minute. once that happens i believe the market is going to pop. i believe it will go back to and above the highest point that it's gone in 2017 and 2018. so i am predicting good times ahead. anybody want to take a stab at that? >> it's your show. i want to give you the last
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word. >> it takes two years, if it takes two years to get back, it's still a good return and you should be in the market. david: gang, have a wonderful happy new year. that does it for bulls and bears. see you next time. charles: good morning, everyone, i'm charles payne in for maria bartiromo. joining us straight ahead on "sunday morning futures," texas republic congressman louie gohmert reacts to the partial government shutdown now in its second week as democrats prepare to take control of the house on thursday. what will it take to break a very bitter stalemate? plus, former justice department prosecutor weighing in on the legal battle over immigration. democrats outraged after the death of two migrant children in u.s. custody while president trump points to the murder of a california police officer allegedly by an undocumented migrant.

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