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tv   The Claman Countdown  FOX Business  September 17, 2019 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

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names that have been around for a hundred years, will probably be around another hundred, for the most part, not a bad place to hide out. we popped initially, now we're down 20 as we hand it over to liz claman. liz: i'll take the cp effect. yeah, you got it going there. thank you so much, charles. folks, we do have geopolitical tensions as we head into the final hour of trade. even president trump promising in just the last hour that a trade deal with china could come, quote, before the 2020 election or one day after the election is not sending the markets to the moon. stocks are still kind of hovering around ground level as we watch a reversal of fortunes in the oil patch right now. the saudi energy minister claims that as bad as those fires looked on saturday night, the entire country's oil operations will return to full production levels by the end of this month. that's just two weeks, right? following this weekend's drone attacks on two major facilities.
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at a presser just over an hour ago, prince bin salman saying that he has restored 50% of lost production and will keep full supply to its customers this month. now, crude prices were already coming down, but the news shook more bears awake and sent black gold to session lows. west texas crude that trades here in the u.s. settled at $59.34. we are just slightly below that right now, and in the aftermarket session we're looking at brent which jumped yesterday 14%, now pulling back it's down to $64.45. but neither has seen a full retreat to the prices that we saw just last week. but here's where the fever part comes in. fox news is now reporting those suicide drones and missiles that carried out the assault that knocked 6% of the global oil production offline were fired from inside iran. well, how are we getting this information? not all missiles hit their
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targets on saturday night. an american team is on the ground right now collecting the data. we've got two of the nation's top energy analysts to tell you where the energy stocks you might own go from here. 24 hours from now this could all change, right? federal reserve chief jay powell will announce whether and by how much his committee has cut interest rates, but with surprisingly strong manufacturing data just out, investors are now chewing their a nails wondering what the fed will do. we're going to show to you the very latest odds, and they may surprise you. plus, the wewerk ipo delayed. wouldn't it be nice to put kind of an iron dome around your portfolio? one of the world's biggest names in convertible bonds, advent's tracy maitland is here to explain how convertibles work. and you've got examples of nearly sure-fire return.
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plus, gm strike day two. we're taking you live to the picket lines. inside big tech's antitrust hearing, and charlie breaks it on a possible directv and dish tie-up. we're less than an hour to the closing bell, let's start "the claman countdown." ♪ ♪ liz: and we have breaking news. the justice department's antitrust division chief is speaking before the senate judiciary committee's antitrust probe right now. the panel here is saying that probes of market-leading online platforms -- we're talking about alphabet google -- were a, quote, priority that could result in either, and here's what we're learning, law enforcement or policy options as solutions. we're watching this story develop. we've got a reporter there. we're going to bring you the very latest in just a minute, and we'll check on the stocks related to in this. in the meantime, the trump
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administration is in the early stages of investigating the allegations that google, facebook, amazon and apple used their cloud illegally to hobble competitors. two of the stocks are down, that's alphabet and facebook, and two are up, amazon and apple. but as i said, we're going to take you inside those hearings from our reporter who's right there. in the meantime, the dow, s&p and nasdaq throughout the session have all made pretty valiant moves from negative to positive territory during the session. right now the dow c't quite make it there, it's down 25 points. crude oil's down $3.71. s&p is flat, slightly higher, i'll give it that. and the nasdaq is up 10 points. the energy sector specifically is quite firmly in the red as commodity traders completely shift into reverse rapidly after that huge runup yesterday. as oil prices go, so go the energy stocks related to them. and, you know, the energy complex is huge, right? it's not just a big soup to nuts integrated oils like exxonmobil and chevron, but the drillers, discovery
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companies, chesapeake, apache, marathon the, halliburton and hess, they are all lower today. we're not saying that every single one of these has lost all the gains they saw yesterday, but when you look at one of monday's double-digit gainers, and we're talking dble-digit percentage gainers, whiting petroleum, it was spiking yesterday, and today it is feeling the pain,own 17%. oasis petroleum down 15% now and, of course, eog which has spiked as well, now down 5%. a different picture for the refiners. remember when i said energy complex has a whole bunch of components to it? highly dependent on saudi oil supplies. those names are in the green on the news that the saudis say we look pretty good already just about more than 48 hours over since this drone attack. airlines are take thing flight as well as lower oil prices translate to lower costs for transportation companies, jet fuel -- which trades as heating oil from that complex. so we have american, united and
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delta which were all down yesterday gaining either slightly or better today. american's the biggest gainer by about 3, nearly 4%. let's bring in two of the top names in the energy sector, managing director for oppenheimer, tim redmond. guys, specifically what happens next. and, tim, you were operating off the assumption yesterday that of this nearly six million barrels that were taken offline over the weekend, that about two would be back online soon, and that's the news we got today. what's the next piece of news, and since you're good at predicting, what will that be? >> i think the biggest uncertainty is what, if any, retaliation will happen. is that going to be a saudi-led attack? is there going to be a broader coalition put in place, and i think that is the next shoe to drop right now. the move looks dramatic over two days in wti, but if you look into the future, it's really only up about $2 a barrel.
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you've seen a little pop on the front end, but this isn't a game-changing move across the whole duration of the future strip. liz: pennsylvania vel, you were surprised -- pavel, you were surprised at the speed, but the saudis had a lot of built-in redundancy e in anticipation of anything coming offline for whatever reason, so immediately they were able to at least shift over to some different pipelines, etc. tell me your sense of what's happening on the ground in saudi arabia. they're acting very calm, everything's fine, don't worry, the aramco ipo's going to happen in the next 12 months, but what are you hearing? >> well, look, anything saudi aramco says we need to take with a grain of salt. they wt to go public partly for that reason. they want to send this message of confidence to the market, reassurance. i think we ought to be skeptical. look, this is highly sophisticated energy infrastructure. this is not just blowing up a pipeline as happens in place
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like nigeria. this is the world's biggest oil processing facility. yes, there is redundancy, but they will have to get repair equipment custom made machinery imported from abroad, delivered, installed. none of that is going to be done instantaneously, and whatever aramco says about the timetable, we would take the over in terms of the duration. liz: interesting. tim, west texas yesterday settled at around $62.90. that was a gain of 14.6%. today we can see we've pulled back, and it's hardly anywhere near that huge percentage. is this a shorting opportunity? where would you be trading this kind of move? >> no, i don't think it's a short opportunity because looking forward there is so much political risk that you've had. you know, you have heard this phrase put out in the public about a risk premium now put in crude. there was maybe a little
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laissez-faire attitude about supply and possibly an oversupply situation. now it look like the saudi disruption, maybe a couple million barrels a day for two weeks, that's 40 million in aggregate, we thought it could be many multiples of that just last night. i think that risk premium is there right now, and i think that will support this model lastly -- modest rally we've seen. liz: what would you pick, tim? what are the nails you really like? >> on the large cap side is noble energy. it's been a real underperformer this week because the company has exposure in israel. however, 76% of the production comes from the u.s. 90% is outside israel. that's one we like on the large cap. liz: and, pavel, what are your picks? it's just hitting the tape that the israeli election exit polls are showing that the presidential race -- remember, they had the prime minister race, they had to redo it, too close to call at this moment. we have a prediction that netanyahu and ganz, his
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competitor, fall short of the majority, 61 seats. pavel, what are your picks? >> occidental. interestingly enough, a company like noble also has some exposure in the middle east, specifically the persian gulf. it's predominantly in the united states as well. occi, of course, bought anadarko not long ago and as a result of that deal took a hit, trading at its lowest levels in about a decade with a dividend yield of 7% which we think is very safe. that's, by the way, three times the dividend yield of the s&p 500. now, on the small cap side, california resources, crc, that's a high -- liz: it's down 13%. definitely cheaper today. >> double-digit moves on days like today. liz: great to see both of you, we appreciate your expertise in all of this, and i agree with pavel that you can't entirely take everything that aramco says
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at face value. both of you, thank you. we've got day one right now of the federal reserve open market committee meeting, that's called the fomc. it's over. they've already left the office. they will start this again tomorrow as we wait for the decision from the federal reserve. it comes at 2 p.m. eastern, but during this hour we have jay powell in front of press, and he will speak directly to answer all of their questions. you cannot miss it. and then the market reaction, right? now tomorrow at 2 p.m. it all begins, but since july 31st, the day the fed cut rates for the first time in more than a decade -- cut by a quarter of a point -- we saw some huge market gyrations. we decided to take a look at how the markets have performed since then, since july 30th, the day before the latest fed rate cut. on july 30th, the day before the fed cut rates, the dow closed at 27,198. okay. there you go. and what are we seeing now? about the same. not too far from it. we're at 27,054.
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this morning we both looked up -- our entire team, and we saw they were exactly the same. if we flip it over to the s&p 500, we're seeing a very similar picture. s&p closed at 3013 on july 30th. today we're hovering very close to that number, 2998. even the volatility index is pretty much within just a point, right? just within a point of where it was nearly two months ago, 13.94, today 14.55. two outliers though, gold and the ten-year treasury yield. gold settled on july 30th at 1,429 a troy ounce, it's 1,511 right now as investors pile into the safe haven. and we've obviously seen a drop in the ten-year treasury yield since then. we is settled at 2.06% before the rate cut, and we're very close to where we were the day they cut rates. so why make a move now? and, gentlemen, let's bring in our traders. we look at a market plateau in
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many cases. math chess lock, does the fed really have a case to cut rates at this point? >> well, they're starting to get some conflicting economic data. we saw pbi and cpi, you know, some inflationary creep-ins here. so if they're going the look at the data entirely to make their decision, maybe they don't have a more than 50% chance of cutting. we've seen the numbers go from 90% to about 62% as far as expectations for tomorrow on a 25-basis point cut. the market was really looking for a 50 basis point cut not so long ago, maybe july 31st. they're in a real bind here, and then they have trump on top of them piling on saying if i don't get a 50-basis point cut, i don't know what he's going to do. liz: look at the fed funds futures, a chance of a quarter point cut, the odds are now less than 50%? this is amazing to me, phil flynn. because as we look and see -- just a few weeks ago it was at
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100%. >> and it's that kind of pessimism in the market is why the market hasn't moved, right? because there's so many uncertainties in the marketplace, we can't even decide whether the fed's going to get a raid cut. listen, i think they're wrong, i think we are going to get a rate cut tomorrow. i don't think they're going to listen to the market, and i think it's going to get us to the next level. liz: guys, thank you very much. keep it right here, as i said, complete coverage of tomorrow's fed rate decision. fed chair jerome powell will be speaking in my hour right here and, of course, the big decision comes out 2 p.m. eastern. yes, the markets are trying to the make a comeback, but with about 45 minutes til the closing bell from the fed right now behind closed doors mulling rates, to the china trade war, to brexit, to new fears brewing in the mideast, investors are staying up at night, but you know who's not sweating? $10 billion convertible bond guru tracy maitland. up next tracy is here to pull the curtain back on the alternative investments that
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♪ ♪ liz: the days of stable and seemingly predictable markets are long gone as volatile market swings yank the stock and bond markets up, down, all around almost on an hour by hour basis. as we look at today, suicide drone attack on saudi oil operations and global fears, and as you focus on the gyrations of the stock market, don't you wish there were an investment where you could gain on the upside but were protected on the downside? convertible bonds may be the secret weapon. advent capital founder and president tracy maitland spent years building merrill lynch's
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convertible bond business which trades on the nyse, it's up 24.5% this year, outpacing the s&p s&p which is up 21.4%. tracy, even some of the most experienced bulls are really nervous right now, aren't they? >> absolutely. it's a very challenging time. valuations in the ec question by -- ec with bity markets are challenging, so people are starting to think what else can i do in this environment to be able to generate potential return while at the same time maintaining a responsible risk level. and in many cases, the convertible market's been generally overlooked, so that's why we're excited to talk to you today. liz: when you say overlooked, it's not crowded even though it's been out there. i don't want our investors to have their eyes glazed over, convertible bonds as an alternative asset, how do i understand that. i want you the define it for us, because it is a hybrid of sorts, is it not? >> 100%. you know, convertibles have been around since the late 1800s: the railroads used to issue them, so it's not really new.
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but it's been totally overlooked by most investors. it's not in the paper every day, you don't see much written about it. but the idea that you can buy a convertible bond and it'll yield somewhere around 2% and mature in four or five years, it's convertible to a fixed number of shares at the option of the investor. liz: so it's got this embedded option that makes it a convertible, and then the investor can have the choice as to whether it goes to converting to stocks or get the full bond yield. >> exactly. so you get the upside potential while maintaining responsible risk on the downside. and so that is a beautiful thing about convertibles. positive asymmetry, the ability to capture a majority upside while only being exposed to a portion of the risk from the downside. liz: give us an example of, you know, a convertible bond that right now you are offering and you are talking to your clients about and recommending. we've got a couple here. start with guess.
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>> sure. guess is an imperilled business. we're excited because it's undergone a transformation. they've got a new ceo in february. you know, to me, this company's been around a long time, but they weren't even tracking point of sales at the register, they weren't tracking that data. so the new ceo came in from hr and is -- rh and is making a big difference. the stock is trading at a market multiple, going a lot faster than the market. you can buy a convertible bond, it has a 2% interest rate, it matures in less than five years. if the stock goes up, you'll get a significant portion of the opportunity on the upside. if the stock goes down, your downside risk is a positive rate of return, 2%. liz: people look at twitter as a name that scares them in some cases because it could be volatile, and nobody knows if it's going to be sold because there was so much talk about whether it would be acquired by another company. they put out a convertible bond that you like as well. what are the returns there? >> yes.
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they actually have two convertibles, one has a 1% coupon, the great thing is the bonds mature in only a few years. so if the stock -- by the way, fundamentally twitter's doing much, much better. and what i mean by that is they have more active users, the users are more engaged in the platform, they're seeing more advertising dollars. so fundamentally, the company is doing well. and you also have the option now that they may get taken out by a much larger media company, but if they don't, you're down side risk is still a positive rate of return. liz: we were talking about convertibles, and my executive producer said it's almost like this iron dome over a portfolio. we've got a 2020 election coming up, all this insanity in the middle east and war drums beating. what, as a convertible bond guru, do you look at the most on the news horizon? >> well, you know, we look at all the economic trends that most equity investors look at as well because we, ultimately, our
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upside potential is how well that individual stock is going to perform. but we also look at the downside protection. we spend a lot of time looking at the credit, understanding the cash flow making sure we're going to get principal back on maturity. so we're looking at downside and then upside potential. at the end of the day, we want to win by not losing, and that's what convertible securities is all about. liz: win by not losing, plus a little bit -- >> the current yield's a little over 2%. the convertible market is about 450 billion in size. you know, it's funny, even though the market's significantly smaller than the high yield market, it's actually more liquid because dealers have the ability to hedge themselves with up like stock and options, is so on and so forth. greater liquidity in high yield, better upside potential. in fact, convertibles going back over 30 years. liz: yeah, we showed that. azk is a closed-in fund that you can buy into with a basket of these. tracy, thank you for joining us. >> great. happy to be here, liz.
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liz: tracy maitland of advent capital. columbia is proud of you. columbia graduate. tracy maitland. we're coming right back. the dow now down 20 points. don't go away, much more straight ahead. ♪ ♪ ♪ spokesman: fraudsters - they're out to get your medicare number so they can bill fake claims in your good name. don't give them that chance. fraudster: just calling to confirm your medicare number. do you have your card available? from medicare, watch out. if a caller says they're it's probably a scam. don't give out your card number.
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liz: breaking news, we need to take u live to capitol hill. what you're seeing right now on the screen, we've got our cameras inside the senate subcommittee hearing that is attempting to dig more deeply into antitrust issues surrounding some of tech's top names. but the department of justice's top antitrust chief was just commenting on the sprint/t-mobile merger which he has supported, but you have state attorneys general who are digging in their heels over this. we've got t-mobile stock still up 1% at the moment, sprint down slightly by half a percent. and as this continues, we should tell you that other top names have scrutiny piling up against the companies. is so does their spending in the nation's capital really have to
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look at what's' going on when it comes to last quarter? the fangs shelled out maas -- massive amounts of cash to influence lawmakers and regulators. oh, yes, the lobbyists. facebook with $4 million, amazon right behind that, netflix, a paltry 200,000. to edward lawrence who's there listening in. the spending but also the t-mobile and sprint merger, what can you tell us? >> reporter: the spending won't have much effect on the agencies themselves. on the sprint and t-mobile merger, i can tell you the department of justice antitrust head said that his argument is basically with the elements, requirements that they made on sprint and memorying those two companies -- merging those two companies, it would make it more of a competitor than just
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leaving sprint by itself in that 5g space. these senators are talking with the regulators. these are the people who are tasked with the investigation. on the list here is the ftc chairman. he said that they formed a task force, an antitrust task force, and that task force is the one that went against facebook and reported that record fine of $5 billion for facebook deceiving users when sharing data. also here, as i said, the department of justice antitrust head. the ftc admits they are still looking at facebook for an antitrust violation. the department of justice looking at google for antitrust violations. listen. >> what are you guys investigating exactly with tech? >> so i can't talk specifically about individual investigations, but it's -- we have a technology task force that we formed in the bureau of competition, and they are focused purely on high technology platforms. >> and you -- >> and they're very active, anyone who has a complaint about
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a high-tech platform, we are all ears. please call us. if. >> reporter: so looking for public help there from the ftc related to this. now google said that the justice department asked for records last friday related to them. they also said that they work with department agencies in investigation, which they will work with in this investigation too. back to you, liz. liz: edward, thank you very much. dow has now pared most of the losses, down just 8 points. we've got new salvos in the streaming wars. yada, yada, yada, have we heard that before? with the closing bell ringing in 30 minute, shares of the content king are moving up by more than 1% for netflix despite new competition on the digital battle front. what netflix is facing that even seinfeld may not be able to fend off. plus, sea world getting swept up in a new drama tsunami. details and more coming up in your fox business brief.
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and my latest everyone talks to liz podcast has been a little controversial. anthony scaramucci is calling himself the republican pariah and making some pretty dramatic statements about what he says will be a loss for president trump come 2020 in the election. listen to it, let me know what you think. the dow has just turned positive, it's up 3.5 points. you've got to stay with "the claman countdown," anything could happen. ♪ es the latest hr tools to stay true to the family recipe. where a music studio spends less time on hr and payroll, and more time crafting that perfect sound. where the nation's biggest party store can staff up quickly as soon as it's time for fun. this is the world of adp. hr, talent, time, benefits and payroll. designed for people.
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♪ ♪ >> i'm jerry lewis with your fox -- gerri willis with your fox business brief. winning the exclusive streaming rights to all 12 seasons of the comedy blockbuster the big bang theory. reuters putting the cost of the deal somewhere between $500-600 million, at&t shares currently down a half percent. comcast not sitting on the sidelines, the cel come giant announcing its forthcoming digital service will feature a variety of original and classic content including the office and parks and recreation. comcast shares right now up about a half percent. and sea world seeing its own drama, shares getting deluged after the chief executive resigned after just seven months in the c suite.
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the now-former ceo resigning over disagreements with the board at its level of involvement in big decisions at the company. sea world shares are down 4.6%. coming up, the price tag that could cause major damage for g as -- for gm as workers across the country strike for a second straight day. that's nextle on "the claman countdown." and getting her car towed. all i had to take care of was making sure that my daughter was ok. if i met another veteran, and they were with another insurance company, i would tell them, you need to join usaa because they have better rates, and better service. we're the gomez family... we're the rivera family... we're the kirby family, and we are usaa members for life. get your auto insurance quote today. [upbeat♪action music]
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(pilot) we're going to be on the tarmac for another 45 minutes or so.
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but when i started seeing things, i didn't know what was happening... so i kept it in. he started believing things that weren't true. i knew something was wrong... but i didn't say a word. during the course of their disease around 50% of people with parkinson's may experience hallucinations or delusions. but now, doctors are prescribing nuplazid. the only fda approved medicine... proven to significantly reduce hallucinations and delusions related to parkinson's. don't take nuplazid if you are allergic to its ingredients. nuplazid can increase the risk of death in elderly people with dementia-related psychosis and is not for treating symptoms
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unrelated to parkinson's disease. nuplazid can cause changes in heart rhythm and should not be taken if you have certain abnormal heart rhythms or take other drugs that are known to cause changes in heart rhythm. tell your doctor about any changes in medicines you're taking. the most common side effects are swelling of the arms and legs and confusion. we spoke up and it made all the difference. ask your parkinson's specialist about nuplazid. liz: we've got some breaking news on the rate at which bank stocks are able to borrow money. borrow dollars. it is extremely elevated at this hour, and you're seeing some of the major bank stocks losing steam. this is the second day in a row. what we can tell you is that the repo rate, the overnight borrowing costs are soaring, and these are the rates at which these banks lend to each other. and it has spiked, it's up about 5% at the moment, standing there ahead of tomorrow's federal reserve meeting where fed policy merricks are expected to
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widely -- policymakers are expected to widely cut rates. although we've only seen 50% odds. the ten-year treasury yield right now, if we can look at that, i believe it's at 1.8% at the moment. is that correct? 1.429 just ten days ago, so we have seen that jump exponentially, and we are watching to see what kind of moves the federal reserve will make as it pertains to this repo borrowing market that banks help and borrow from in u.s. dollars. we're also watching new developments, day two of the united autoworkers strike against general motors. the white house, gm and the uaw all denying a politico report that the white house was inlved in trying to bring the labor dispute to an end. white house says we weren't involved. nearly 50,000 workers are off the job for a second day. bank of america estimates the cost of the strike for the company at up to $90 million per day. analysts warn if the strike lasts more than a few weeks, it could impact the supply chain
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downstream including auto dealerships, steel companies, you also have have the parts suppliers. it could eventually hit economic data like unemployment numbers and, of course, durable goods orders because autos are considered doubles. wage growth in the industry is slowing down. seasonally-adjusted wages up 3% through august compared to 4.7% for the same time last year. workers on the picket line want a bigger share of general motors' multibillion dollar profits. labor strikes up over the last decade, labor department estimates 329,000 workers striking through august of this year. you know, ten years ago, in 2009, that number was 12,500 workers for the entire year. so how long could this strike last. let's go to center of the labor action, detroit, where grady trimble is reporting from the picket line. grady. >> reporter: hey, liz. contract negotiations going on just a few miles from here at gm's headquarters in downtown detroit, but here we are at one
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of the plants where the picketers have set up shop. you see they've got food here, water. they're picketing 24/7 so, of course, they have to have coffee as well. and then the picket is going on over here right by the main entrance of this this plant. i want to bring in annette stokes here. annette, if you don't mind, i know you're busy right now, but i wanted to talk to you about how day two is going. >> oh, we're still keeping going, we're still hanging on, we're still just thinking really, really, really well. i mean, we're just hanging on. what else can we do, you know? we gotta keep it going, so we're just doing everything that we can to stay cool. we're recognizing all our supporters, we appreciate all our supporters, and we're just fighting. we gotta keep it going. >> reporter: you guys are on strike pay right now which means $250 a week from the union while you're not working. how long can you guys work with -- or be on strike if you're not getting paid? >> well, the $250 we'll have to
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live with and we'll have to make that due. that's our fighting money, and that's what we have to live with. it's no big deal. we're making it so that we survive so we can get what we're asking for. we want a product, we want this product to stay, want this plant to stay open. >> reporter: thank you very much, annette. and, liz, what she's referencing there is this plant is actually set to shut in january of 2020, so that's very important for these workers here, is for a deal that involves this plant staying open. there's no end in sight as of right now, but we'll stay on top of it if there are any developments. liz? liz: something tell tells me if president trump saw what annette just said, he'd high-five her. he's echoed the same sendments. grady, thank you very much. general motors stock up today. charlie gasparino with a major
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techno scoop. he breaks it next. the dow is now up 20 points. ♪ of course i have- ever since i started renting from national. because national lets me lose the wait at the counter... ...and choose any car in the aisle. and i don't wait when i return, thanks to drop & go. at national, i can lose the wait...and keep it off. looking good, patrick. i know. (vo) go national. go like a pro. i'm off to college. i'm worried about my parents' retirement. don't worry. voya helps them to and through retirement... dealing with today's expenses ...while helping plan, invest and protect for the future. so they'll be okay? i think they'll be fine. voya. helping you to and through retirement. doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere.
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♪ ♪ liz: markets are at session highs right now, folks. we've got the dow up 27. it had been sort of a laggard, but the s&p, when we started this program 47 minutes ago, was flat. we are now up 7 points. the nasdaq has gained another 20 or so points, we're up 31 at the moment. but let me get to charlie gasparino. he's about to dish the dirt on a breaking telecom union. i like this. >> well, it's early. and as you know, elliott management is taking aim at at&t, telling them to get rid of directv as it's losing subscribers. this is a complicated story, gonna give you the least complicated stuff first.
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bankers are flooding at&t with proposals to sell directv. one of the names that we hear, and i find it amazing that this ever happens, to sell to dish and basically combine the two companies, get economies as scale. charlie urban is immersed in creating a wireless network at dish as well, following the t-mobile merger with sprint. so this does seem like a bridge too far, but from what we understand, bankers are flood ifing at&t with this proposal. and it makes conceptual sense. there's one other satellite carrier out there. this is a business that is matured. directv itself, let's take dish out of the way, is facing tremendous problems. they have a bigtime contract they have to renew with the nfl, which they haven't renewed yet -- liz: expensive. >> $1.5 billion a year. if they don't renew it, okay, they're in an option year, if they don't renew it, estimates are they could lose 10% of their
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subscribers. they're already losing subscribers. and what we do the know, what sources are telling us close to the white house is that president trump has privately spoken about some sort of an at&t boycott, right? he does not like the coverage of cnn. one of the levers of that boycott, a focus of that boycott has been proposed to president trump by outside advisers has been to, you know, his surrogates put the word out to boycott directv. they are the weakest link inside at&t's empire which now, as you know, combines cnn, warner brothers. it's a big company, directv, at&t's own 5g networks. it's a big company. you look at one part of that place that's bleeding, it is directv. so directv is under tremendous pressure. we do now have bankers circling to push a deal. one of the names they're pushing is to merge with dish. i don't know how realistic that is considering the fact that dish is now moving into 5g itself, but it makes conceptual
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sense because it's a rival satellite company, and it's probably not room for two satellite companies. we should point out satellite companies was an alternate to cable -- liz: we're coming up to on your report here for dish. up off the floor. >> right. still down, but it makes very much conceptual sense because if you put the two companies together, you do get economies of scale. so that's what's being worked out. randall stenson is under some -- stevenson is under some pressure because of that guy, elliot management, paul singer has bought a stake in the company, is pushing for radical changes or to cost savings or big changes he's calling for is to unload directv. i don't know who would buy it. i don't see, like, who's going to buy directv? other than charlie ergen to merge it and get economies of scale. liz: xm sirius? >> i don't know. we're talking -- yes, i agree. we are talking about tremendous pressure from elliott
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management, pressure coming from the president trump who could focus a boycott on directv because it's one of the problematic assets that they hold. by the way, they're just being sued today, i read is some suit that directv on their directv over the top service that they may have, you know, fudged the numbers of subscribers there. so, you know, you've got trump bearing down on them, you've got elliott bearing down on them. but the stock is up because wall street is flooding randall stephenson, the ceo, with ideas including selling it to dish. liz: who won monday night football? >> who did? liz: cleveland browns. >> boo! >> by the way, since we're on football, can i make one point? this is the gordian knot, the hobson's choice, whatever you want to say, whatever cliche, if they don't resign with the nfl, they lose 10% of their subscribers. if they do sign, they pay $1.5 billion. by the way, the nfl gets two big
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checks; one from monday night football, something like $2 billion from abc. the second is from directv which is bleeding subscribers for $1.5 billion. liz: charlie break it right here. we will be watching dish, at&t and all the other names that could be involved. dueling market calls. with the dow up 17 points, $4 billion man is playing referee in the latest recession tug-of-war. two big recession calls, one no, one yes. u get decide, and ken has the picks. ♪ ♪
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it will raise the shipping rate, sorry, that is fedex. boeing is saying that china will need about 1.6 trillion worth of commercial services and commercial aircraft. china demand is going to be significant. they said it last night. it is still carrying through until today. solid hopeful news from china for boeing. that is interesting we're still trying to figure out a trade deal at the moment. boeing is up a .40 cents. one day after announcing it raises shipping units at express unit, fedex is set to report first-quarter earnings after the bell. that is four minutes away. to gerri willis on the floor of the nyse. reporter: we have fedex coming. we're expecting $3.15 a share on the bottom line that represents a 9% decline year-over-year. that may be why the stock is lower. revenue estimates at
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17.06 billion in the full veer over there. shares of fedex underperformed the broader market, rising%. broader market up 20%, the s&p 500. they have lowered guidance in each of the three previous quarters. will they lower again? we'll watch for higher ground and freight revenues. i will send it back to you. liz: three minutes before the closing bell rings on a very interesting day we were down. now all three major indices moving higher. two of the most respected financial names on wall street making totally conflicted opposite calls. jpmorgan pouring cold water on cession fears, treasurys, some cases stocks. deutsche bank firing off a warning flair saying a u.s. recession is knocking on the door and the s&p won't answer. here is play referee, retirement planners of america, 4 billion
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under management, ken, whose side do you pick? >> making me the referee for those two giants. thanks a lot. i give you historical perspective to answer the question. the yield curve which a lot of people look at when the next recession or bear market is coming, we've looked at the history of that. when the yield curve inverts a couple weeks ago, the average time between the yield curve inverting and recession starting is one year. and the average time, and the bear market as well. the average gain in the s&p during that year is 10%. so i'm on the side of we will have a recession but it will take about a year before we get there, the markets should look pretty good between now and then. liz: so you absolutely feel for the moment there is no tap, tap, tapping on the doors. which sectors do you like. we have them on the screen,
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reits, financials and health care. why these three? >> well, my, our view is that the federal reserve is going to lower interest rates tomorrow. the bond market has pretty much laid down the law. in my experience i've been looking at the markets over 20 years and the federal reserve has never said no to the bond market that i have seen. so the bond market priced in that reduction. the likelihood they will tomorrow. if they do, real estate is cheaper to buy and therefore that helps with reits. in the financial sector in theory, if they lower interest rates, we see more lending, if more lending happens, that helps banks. for those reasons we see the areas, consumers in the health care part, consumers, the china trade talks don't affect that that much. liz: okay. >> therefore we don't see that being affected. i wt to give you -- liz: we have to rung. can you hear the bell in our ears? we all hear it.
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[closing bell rings] the markets turned all green. the final hour of trade, you cannot miss. we'll know what the fed has done and to interest rates. "claman countdown" will have your money on tv. melissa: stocks higher at close after kicking off a two-day policy meeting. the dow closing up 29 point there. we were down nearly 100nt earlier in the session. obviously turning that around. the s&p 500 and the nasdaq let's take a look at that, both closing to the plus side. s&p by quarter of a percentage point by almost half. this is first time in three days. i'm melissa francis. connell: i'm connell mcshane. nice close. boeing led the way into the finish. we'll talk about the big market movers. here is what is new at this hour. congress taking aim at silicon valley as top government officials are


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