tv The Journal Editorial Report FOX News March 30, 2013 11:00am-11:30am PDT
for $5 monthly access. >> this week on the journal, editorial report. the supreme court takes up the controversy over same-sex marriage after two days of oral arguments, are there clues as to how the justices will rule? and the senate after dark, they've gone on spring brack, but not before passing a trillion dollars in new taxes and so much more. we'll fill you in on last weekend's late night budget woes. plus, america's baby bust, forget terrorism and the national debt, the author of a provocative new book tells us why the nation's falling fertility rate is the biggest threat america faces. ♪
>> welcome to "the journal editorial report." i'm paul gigot. the supreme court wrapped up two days of oral arguments, setting the stage for a contentious ruling this june. they considered a challenge to proposition 8 california's voter-approved ban on gay marriage and the defense of marriage act known as doma defines marriage as between one man and one woman, survivors berths and tax deductions. joining us dan henninger, editorial board member, joe ragle, and opinion editor. and are we going to get a supreme court decision that says that gay marriage is a right imposed on 50 states?
>> i don't think so. you saw disquiet left to right with even the liberal justices realizes this would be an especially radical step to say that the marriage arrangements that have prevailed for millennia are unconstitutional and as a result of bigotry. >> let's listen so sonya sotomayor. >> if you say-- what state restrictions to the number of people, with respect to -- that could get married, the incest laws that mother and child, assuming that they're the age. i can accept that the state has probably an overbearing interest on protecting a child until they're of age to marriage, but what's left? >> she's suggesting that it
would be difficult for governments to put any limits on marriage. >> right. >> paul: if gay marriage is suddenly a constitutional-- >> once you kick out the strut, what else is going to fall? we saw that marriage is a permanent union. what about if people want to have time limited marriages, term limits, get a lease that renews every year? once you change one definition, you kind of take the power away from the states to define the institution. >> paul: james, how did you see the debate? >> well, i wouldn't read too much into that question from justice sotomayor, i think she asked a pertinent question, but doesn't necessarily tell us how it's going to vote. and the one that's going to be the key here, is justice kennedy. he didn't want to take up that discriminates against gays. so, likely opposition in the
prop 8 case, kick it back saying that the people appealing it don't have standing because the state is not defending its law. the effect of that would be that the ruling would stand and california would have same-sex marriage, but have no legal precedence and no effect on other states. >> paul: let's go to the federal statute and justice kennedy, who raised a question about that law on federalism grounds, that is the tension between state and federal power. let's listen. >> you are at real risk of running in conflict with what has always been thought to be the essence of the power which is to regulate marriage, divorce. >> paul: dan, is the federal government trying to regulate marriage with doma? >> well, that's the argument that they're trying to define marriage. >> paul: is that regulating it at the state level? >> they regulated it with doma because they felt they had all
of these 1100 federal statutes such as we see in social security, which are-- which use marriage as a marriage between man and a woman, and they're trying to keep that intact. >> right, but they did that at the federal level. they didn't force that on the states. they didn't force that on the states, but the states then have to decide, you know, just what make up their own mind what marriage is going to be and i think this conversation and what the courts argue, makes it cheer that this case came upon the supreme court so quickly, the idea that same sex marriage has gained acceptance in society that they're saying that we are very uncomfortable with the making a decision that the supreme court should enshrine same sex marriage in the constitution. >> right. >> this has not been litigated and only nine states legalized it and so i'm kind of with james, saying that they're going to find a reason to kick this back to the states. >> paul: i think that's true in proposition 8, but that
doesn't mean they couldn't overturn doma. >> i think they will probably overturn doma. it's crucial as justice kennedy said, if congress doesn't have the authority to define marriage because that's traditionally a state role, then we don't need to reach the equal protection, or decide in the appeals case that the law constitutionally discriminates against gays and that would eliminate the doma question. >> paul: do you agree? >> i don't. doma was written in a specific context and time, you had in the 90's was why is the supreme court legalizing gay marriage and suddenly the federal government has to confront a world where some states are allowing gay marriage, some states aren't. and whatever it does, whether it recognizes these marriages, whether it doesn't, it's putting its thumb on one scale or another. what it's saying is, whoa, let's wait a minute. we will recognize the traditional definition for the time being, and see how the debate plays out in the
states. >> paul: dan, briefly, is this as a political matter? is this debate over, essentially, will gay marriage be ultimately passed in almost all states? >> oh, i don't know about that, paul. i think south of the mason dixon line it pushes in the opposite direction, to tell you the truth, down south. evangelical christians. i don't think it's going to move that quickly why it should go back to the states rather than have the supreme court decide it for all the case. otherwise we'll be in a 40-year war like roe vs wade. >> paul: it will be passed in a lot of states? >> it will be passed in a lot of-- >> under the cover of darkness democrats finally pass a budget with a trillion dollars in new taxes. find out what other goodies were included. and last weekend all-nighter next. now's the time to buy during the polaris xp sales event. take your pick of our new limited edition rzrs and get financing as low as 2.99%.
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fine and we passed a budget before spring break and after a four-year wait. in the pre-dawn vote democrats approved nearly a trillion dollars, senators worked their way through dozens of amendments and you may be surprised what passed and what didn't. we're back with dan henninger and joe and steve moore joins us. so, steve, you followed the follies. what were the highlights for you? >> well, first of all, paul, you know how for the last four years we have been urging the united states senate and harry reid to pass a budget? never mind, i kind of liked it better when he they didn't pass a budget. this was just an abomination. you mentioned the trillion dollar tax increase and then of course, you had 100 billion dollars of new stimulus spending and it really polarizes where the house republicans and where the senate democrats are. they could not be more opposite in terms of their
numbers. >> paul: there were some interesting votes as part of this it that signaled some interesting political trends. for example, on the keystone pipeline, 62 senators voted, said that the president should approve it. >> yeah, that was one of my favorite ones and then there was actually two votes on the -- on one of my favorite ones, on the carbon tax, something that the environmentalists have been drooling for for years. both amendments were soundly defeated to have the carbon tax. my favorite part the sponsor of the carbon tax says, the pope wants to have a carbon tax and god and my favorite response by one from missouri said, wait a minute, the pope cares about poor people and this is the most regress seiivr >> i think we could say that the pop is agnostiagnostic, if use that word, on the carbon tax. and it suggests that is
bipartisan support for approving this big pipeline. >> we've known that for a long time. there were some better votes than for the carbon -- for the larger budget. for example, the medical device tax 2.3% tax on innovation and the life sciences that was part of the affordable care. >> on medical device companies and what they make, on sales, not profits, sales. >> that's right. that went down 72-20 with 34 democrats breaking with the white house saying we don't want to impose this tax and create a motive for the bill. >> paul: amazing. >> what is called senate after the dark, most of this happened between midnight and four or five o'clock in the morning and the really tragic part of it is, we're currently talking about a sequester, hard, across the board cuts. senate republicans like jerry moran of kansas tried to introduce bills that would
have mitigated some of the cuts to say airport traffic control. >> paul: wouldn't have to be furloughed. >> tom senator coburn of oklahoma came up with seven or eight adjustments to the sequester and harry reid ordered his caucus not to vote or vote against all of these ideas. >> paul: why. >> kelly:. >> why? because they want to go forward to the patty muhr budget which is simply going to ask to raise taxes a trillion dollars to pay for-- >> they don't want to ease the pain on the sequester, they want to increase the pain on the sequester on the public. >> rights. >> that will put more pressure on republicans. i want to go to the vote on medical devices. are we seeing maybe bipartisan support beginning to break up part of the financing of obamacare? the democrats have said all along you can't touch any of this. >> right. >> and this is the tablet in stone. no, what you're seeing, as a lot of these things come on line, ramp up over the coming year. >> paul: obamacare.
>> right. they're going be to be harmful, costly and unpopular and i think the bill is a lot more vulnerable than people in washington claim to think on this or that piece. and we start to see it come down. >> steve, what does the vote tell you about the overall prospects between a big budget deal between republicans and democrats later this year? >> as i said i think the parties are polar opposite how they want to deal with the budget. the republican budget cuts taxes and the democratic budget has tax increase. >> understood, but what's the prospects for a deal? >> well, i don't think very good right now. i think the parties are so far apart. what was most interesting to see, having stayed up until 2 or 3 in the morning and watch vote-rama. democrats were stricken and republicans were the ones who looked like victory after victory in all of the votes and i think it gives the
republicans a bit of momentum going into the subsequent budget cuts to come. >> paul: thank you, and when we come back, america's baby bust and the coming demographic disaster. the author of a provocative new book is here to tell us what to expect when no one is expecting. and drop offs begins with arthritis pain... and a choice. take up to 6 tylenol in a day or just 2 aleve for all day relief. all aboard. ♪ mom? who's mom? i'm the giants mascot. eat up! new jammin jerk chicken soup has tasty pieces of chicken with rice and beans. you know the giants don't have a mascot right mom? [ male announcer ] campbell's chunky soup. it fills you up right. you know the giants don't haavoid bad.fats.ht mom? don't go over 2000... 1200 calories a day. carbs are bad. carbs are good. the story keeps changing. so i'm not listening... to anyone but myself. i know better nutrition when i seet: great grains. great grains cereal stts whole and stays whole. see the seam? more processed flakes look nothing like natural grains.
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>> on cyber warfare, the spiraling national debt. all front-page news at the moment and viewed as threats to american life as we know it. what if the greatest menace to the united states is us and our declining population. my next guest says the fall fertility rate is the root cause of the problem and it's only going to get worse. a senior writer pat the weekly standard, author of the new book, what to expect when no
one is expecting? america's coming demographic disaster. jonathan, welcome, good to see you again. >> good to see you. >> so we've been told for years, decades that the world had too many people. now you're saying the united states may have too few. explain that. >> yeah, well, hundreds of years, actually. it goes back to thomas malcolm and the danger of overpopulation around the corner and turns out the population has lots of good things, people live longer and with higher standards of living. declines in commodity prices, but what we've seen since 1968 is a marked decline in fertility rates across the globe. it started across the west and spread across the developing countries as well. what we worry about now is most the models projected in the next 50 or 60 years, global population is going to peak somewhere around 10 billion and then begin declining rapidly and the question really, is how far, how fast. >> the u.s. replacement rate is about 2.1 children for every woman, every mother and
the u.s. fertility rate is 1.93. that's much better than japan, 1.4 or italy. are we better off relatively speaking than these other countries? >> our fertility rates, truth be told are fine. if we could sustain 1.9 fertility rate i wouldn't have written the book. there are questions whether or not it's sustainable in the long run. it's a result of massive immigration over the last 35 years which saved our bacon. without that immigration demographically we'd be in much, much worse shape. there are problems with this, first when we get hispanic immigrants this, they regress to the means, and pull the fertility rates downward and secondly, the source of immigration, regardless of the policy decisions here, the source may be drying up as well. in mexico and south america are collapsing as well. >> why is the declining population or stable-- i guess you're saying, even a
stable population is a problem. what is-- what other problems does that create? >> you know, a stable population would be fine, but the declining population, what worries us isn't the numbers game, really. it's what happens to your population profile. because when your fertility rates are sub replacements, your age profile, you wind up with many more old people than young people and that's the danger. the problem with entitlement, social security and medicare, all of those become tremendously exacerbated when you have more old people than young people and the recessions we've seen in japan since the 1990's, a lot of financial and economic problems we see in southern mediterranean countries and europe largely driven by demographics. too many old people and not enough young, productive people. >> paul: why don't we solve this by letting in more immigrants? that's been one of america's secrets and contrast to japan where they let in few immigrants. america could go back to that kind of -- that solution.
won't that help us? >> well, immigration is a big part of any solution. you look, there are no industrialized countries which have gotten close to the replacement rate without massive immigration. the problem is you wind up needing more and more immigrants, what immigrants don't do they help the fertility rate for complicated mathematical reasons he i won't go into on tv, the rejuvination-- you need immigrants, but people having a reasonable number of babies. >> paul: and obviously having children requires personal sacrifice. so somebody. >> yes. >> one of the parents might have to stay at home. you know well. one of the parents you might have to sacrifice career advancement and historically people have done that. americans now are less likely to did that or willing to do that. how do you engineer such a big cultural change to get people thinking about that again? >> you know, what's interesting is that societies have tried engineering and cultural changes for a long time.
you can go back to the falling of the roman empire, almost never works. it's difficult to get people to have kids. >> paul: the roman analogy is not optimistic. if it's hard to get people to change the culture are there government solutions to this and public policies to negotiate? >> there are public policy solutions out there. if you look the at asia and europe, there are lots of countries in the last 40 years which have tried to boost their fertility rate through-- i would say crudely liberal solutions, and then crudely conservative solutions which are tax incentive based and the research shows that the efficacy of both camps is pretty low. and you get about 1/2 a percentage point increase in the fertility rate. >> paul: leave us with one optimistic note here. what could we do? >> so the one optimistic note here is that-- isn't that people don't want
babies in america, our ideal fertility rate has been couldn't constant for 40 years. 2.5. and our adeal fertility and achieved, i think the management of the problem is different. >> paul: all right, well, jonathan, thanks so much. we'll have to take one more break. when we come back, our hits and misses of the week. what's droid-recognition ? understanding you clearly... what is the capital of zimbabwe ? ... the first time you ask with the google voice search. the droid razr maxx hd by motorola. droid recognition. droid powerful.
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this is not get the cost curve down. maybe it's time to repeal this law once and for all. >> paul: james. >> hit out to the u.s. supreme court which this week announced it will take a case on racial preferences at the university of michigan. a federal appeals court says that voters can't repeal preferences because their purpose it to help minorities. but ten years ago, the supreme court said that these preferences were constitutional only because their purpose was to promote a diverse student body. the justice got it wrong and now is a chance to get it right. >> paul: dan. >> this is a one of the solemn times of the year. a hit to the peace makers, the americans troops which have served or are serving in far away places like afghanistan. it's sometimes to easy to remember that they're over there, this weekend would be a good one to remember. >> paul: here-here, dan. be sure t