tv The O Reilly Factor FOX News April 5, 2016 8:00pm-9:01pm PDT
we have a lot of coverage and analysis, a lot happening here tonight. but that is all the time we have left. thanks for joining us. and stay with the fox news channel. bret baier, megyn kelly standing by. it's 11:00 p.m. on the east coast and 10:00 p.m. in wisconsin. a couple candidates trying to upset the status quo. >> fox news projecting senator ted cruz will win the primary tonight. the cruz victory slowing down some of trump's momentum. >> on the democratic side, senator bernie sanders beats out hillary clinton, meaning the senator from vermont now won six of the last seven states for the democrats. >> tonight, both candidates took to the stage to rally supporters. cruz, and sanders savoring the
win. >> tonight is a turning point, a rallying cry. a call from the hard working men and women of wisconsin to the people of america. >> the hard working men and women of wisconsin stood, and campaigned tirelessly to make sure that tonight was a victory. >> with our victory tonight, in wisconsin, we have now won seven out of eight of the last caucuses. momentum is starting the campaign, 60-70 points behind secretary clinton. momentum is the last couple weeks, national polls had us one point up, one point down. >> in the all-important delegate count, senator cruz trying to keep pace. donald trump leads with 737,
senator cruz is in second with 505. again, 1237 is the magic number for clenching the nomination. >> i'm joined now by alice stewart. alice, good to see you, congratulations to your team tonight. it was a good night for ted cruz, you know his detractors are saying donald trump has a fire wall called new york state. your thoughts on it? >> well, let me just tell you now, thank you for having me on. this is a tremendous night. this is hats off, two weeks of changes in terrain. two weeks ago, things started to change. we had a great victory in utah followed by victories in colorado, north dakota and here. so the last four major contests have gone to ted cruz. this is because republican party conservatives are rallying behind ted for many reasons, first, they understand what a
disaster it would be for trump to be the nominee. they see ted as someone consistent and has real solutions for creating jobs and protecting our country and securing the border opposed to just grandiose talk. highs traveling and providing shugss and pushing his emphasis and we expect it to continue moving further into other states. >> but that doesn't address my question, which is the donald trump people say new york. new york. they look at california and look at pennsylvania and look at his polling there which is you know, donald trump up over ted cruz in, i mean, by 30 points in new york. and so they say okay, he's got way more delegates than ted
krudz and better positioned in states we're about to hit. >> you have to keep in mind this victory, critical but the key is amassing delegates. and there is a possibility to sweep delegates and moving to new york that is a proportional state. so we have a chance of matching delegates down the calendar. this is a process. we had a plan acquiring delegates and we don't receive 1237 before the convention, i'm confident we'll do so on the convention floor. >> he writes donald trump withstood the onslaught yet
again. and ted cruz is worse than a puppet attempting to steal the nomination. your reaction to his agency that the super pac is illegal? >> well, look. it's no surprise that in such a defeat as he has this evening he protect that tone as a way to respond. if we're not going to get down in the gutter, we're going to stay above the fray. and ted cruz won this fair and square because he took the issues to the people of wisconsin and talked about what he can do to help create jobs and economy and improve our national security as opposed to someone who just insulted people. so he can take that tone if he wants. we're going to have a positive campaign based on inspiring
people and going to continue to do so. so many have been competitors in this campaign. the fact he's galvanizing and republicans are uniting behind him goes to show people see him as the person that can defeat hillary in november. >> thank you very much for being here tonight. all the best to you. >> donald trump focusing his primary two weeks from tonight. and tonight's loss in wisconsin. dr. ben carson is a donald trump supporter, former candidate himself. thank you for being here. your reaction to wisconsin. >> not terribly surprising. polling was accurate predicting that cruz would win there.
and we say this is the critical one, then, saying the same thing about the next one. it's kind of funny, actually. it's going to be an important process going down to the wire. and when getting to cleveland, one or the other, cruz or trump will have acquired what they need or close to it. and i think they're really big mistake will be trying to deny them. and this focus pokus, trying to create something that the people did not want. and that will be an unmitigated disaster for the republican party. i hope that the leaders of the party understand that. and recognize if we put hillary in there, we'll have done our
children and grandchildren a great disservice. we have to get over our personal dislikes and be ready to unite behind whoever it is. >> one, you know, donald trump kept talking about a surprise in wisconsin, that he is going to pull out a win. a poll had him up 10 and they were touting that poll. and didn't he think he had a shot in wisconsin? >> yes. i think there was some indications that things might have been changing but they didn't. you move on. you move onto the next contest which will be in new york. and there maybe other states where senator cruz will do well.
you must emphasize republicans have got to find a way not to destroy themselves. >> you talk about elevating the race and the discussion on topics. and this statement saying lying ted cruz coordinating with his own super pacs, quoting now, ted cruz is worse than a puppet, he is a troejan horse being used by party bosses. what do you think of that? >> i hope those statements will be seasoned with important policy issues. naming the people who are going to be considered nominees for the supreme court. and talking about some other important leadership positions, talking about policies. what are we going to do about
the tremendous debt that are inflicting the next generations? unless we begin to talk about that we need to talk about the downtrodden in our society and what other ladders of opportunity we're going to provide. these are things republicans not talked about. we feed to bring those people in. a lot of the bernie sanders people are not going to vote for hillary clinton. we have to give them a place to come. >> have you told mr. trump your concerns about focusing on policy? on these things and perhaps, do you think he's going to change his tone? >> i believe he's going to be adding a lot more substance and policy and he's going to be doing things he's suggested because those are the logical things to do. >> donald trump considered
calling on ted cruz to get out of the race. >> john kasich is one for 32. jeb was doing better than him. marco was doing better than him. rand paul was doing better than him. they could have stayed in, also. >> someone is not electable if they can't get elected. >> he lost every state other than his home state. he's mathematically eliminated from the race. if you lose 49 states, you ain't going to be the republican nominee. >> john kasich is behind even senator marco rubio who suspended his campaign. thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> so you know the arguments against his candidacy now. and ted cruz saying the person that loses 49 states is not
going to be the party nominee. >> well, the party's nominee is going to be one that can secure a majority of delegates and tonight shows no candidate is going to reach that prior to cleveland. what happens now is this race turns to the northeast shows john kasich takes from donald trump. and polls show we're the most competitive going forward. and that is why he feels candidate about our path. >> washington post had a piece out tonight saying 20% of late deciders voted for him which is lower than we got a couple months ago. 18% of independents chose him
tonight. in illinois it was double. his point is that it is not on kasich's side. >> ted cruz knew this was a must win for him. and must win for to stop donald trump. so he spent a lot of time there. this is a good night for ted cruz. and going forward look at the states that vouted. he got trounced in vermont. and trump needs kasich in this race. the "wall street journal" editorial board said it's important that leads have a chance to compete in pennsylvania where he grew up. to be in these other states. so that is what is going to happen. we'll see how votes go. >> finally, trent, you know the cruz campaign and others are pointing to this rule 40 which
governs the convention now. unless you win eight states. this vote will be between donald trump and ted cruz. >> well, the vote is who can win the majority of the delegates at the convention? 1237. under any role or scenario you can find. and that is a rule discussed today. it's important we go forward. nobody is going to have the majority going into the convention and delegates that are voted on by this process and through state conventions across the country over the coming months or weeks are going to do that. >> quick question and i have to go. >> donald trump has said there will be riots if someone like
that gets the nomination and he wasn't parachuted in, so few delegates and he says voters will not feel disenfranchised. >> well, it's not up to john kasich or ted cruz. they're not from washington. they're not a lobbyist. so they're going to make that decision. >> thank you for being here, sir. >> thank you. >> all the best. >> so folks are saying they're out the window and second ballot comes. so, as the candidate final with the delegates what is the path? can donald trump get there? how about ted cruz? >> and if no one gets there, what happens then? what a contested convention will look like, coming up.
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>> senator ted cruz getting a boost tonight with a win in wisconsin. there is a long way to go, 1237 delegates are needed to secure the nomination and bill hemmer is breaking down the math at the bill board. hi, bill. >> if you're confused at home, don't worry. this is what we did. we took all of the polling on the remaining 16, 17 contest left to go. we cross pollenated with different political web sites trying to find out what a possible scenario is and how you get to 1237 if you're donald trump. right now, he starts out not counting wisconsin, 737. he needs 500 to get to the magic number. so in 10 days, wyoming has a state convention, we believe those will go to ted cruz. new york state, if you get plus 50%, which trump can do, you'd get all 95.
watching now, as this number changes, throughout the map here. then, other five contests at the end of april, seemed to favor trump so we're rather generous in rhode island, connecticut, delaware, maryland and pennsylvania. see where he is at the end of april. still 310 away. now, moving into may. may, indiana, we believe trump is doing well now in the hoosier state. we'll see over the next month or so. then, we go to following tuesday. west virginia is winner take all and look what happened to the trump number then. but that same day, that same day as nebraska, winner take all as well, we think ted cruz is polling very well there. third week, oregon, they kind of split. not really a third, a third, a third, but close. so we're conservative here in oregon. same thing for the state of washington the week after.
monday monday is winner take all. new mexico is a bit of a 50-50 split. right now, we'll give trump make 10 of those. california is still on the table we believe trump will get 100 out of 172, and look where that is. new jersey is winner take all. new jersey looks favorable in trump. he would be 44 delegates. and this could change in a week. or two weeks. and june 8, 150 unbound delegates will be on the republican board. they're up for grabs like super delegates in democratic parties. this could play out or may change in about 14 days.
>> i just want to give bill applause. that is very well done. >> big shout out. >> that takes a while. >> with that comprehensive understanding. >> that is well done. >> and this comes down to california. i can't believe it. >> inside joke. >> yes. let's bring in our panel. tucker carlson, kirsten powers and steve hayes and dana perino, co-host of "the five". welcome back. so let me start with you. what pundits are saying this is not about knocking off core support. after 18 candidates in a year of the g.o.p. race, the
republicans saying wisconsin consolidates behind ted cruz. >> and i think that there is a lot -- there are many reasons for it. it's partly there are less people. so that worked in cruz's favor. donald trump had been very disparaging of scott walker but people in wisconsin really like him. so, i think that that was one thing that possibly backfired. >> if they define him as establishment, they say establishment is fine by me because they've seen him fight over and over again. >> and conservatives outnumber moderates in wisconsin. and republicans have been tested over and over again recently when scott walker took on the union. they have seen benefits of sticking together because they won the recall vote. and the state numbers from an unemployment rate, the way the state is running is working
well, so institutionally, wisconsin is pretty happy with where they were. >> so saying wisconsin didn't think it's going to be their state. but a few weeks ago, they said it was. >> yes. many said it was potentially a good state. and trump saying he's going to win so if you compare to voters, 70% in both states. under $100,000 in income. 55% to 53% concollege graduates. 75% in wisconsin. 74% in michigan.
43% evangelicalals in wisconsin. >> and trump within michigan 36-34. the question is wisconsin sort of a model for the anti-donald trump and pro cruz forces going forward? this is what you can do if you get support? if you have a campaign pushing against donald trump and pushing for ted cruz? is it a blip? is this the state that has this very cohesive republican party a conservative republican establishment and isn't able to be replicated? >> we know that there is not going to be a governor endorsement of ted cruz in new york. so this is donald trump's home state. he's a popular guy here, he's killing ted cruz here.
so the question is if the aen trump crowd and in wisconsin, 37 said they'd not vote for him. p they're consolidated how do they make that spread? make the most out of that? in the remaining states? >> it's going to be a tough job. to your point when talking about new york one of the things we noticed with cruz is that he did really well. that is something to note. we saw this, i think with the second super tuesday, we see that that growing voter confidence in ted cruz's electability, we're seeing that here. >> but only 11% of the people care about that. >> yes, but. >> you went for cruz, but only
11? >> it's huge, they used to say he's in the electable but we're seeing more and more, yes. he is when you're looking at these polls. and to answer your question, people thought well, we have to vote cruz. i talked to a lot of kasich people on my radio program today and a lot of them are saying we did go for cruz because we thought that that was the best. >> there is a statement that ted cruz is a troejan horse being used by party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from mr. trump. ted cruz is a troejan horse. >> it's an ominous statement for those who hope the campaign would reset after the loss. and regain some seriousness.
and is hard to imagine ted cruz being a trojan horse. the nef trump movement is not running on open borders and more foreign wars an carried interest in the tax code. they're not going to -- they may believe those but are not going to say that in public. the best you're going to get is cruz is running on a moderated version of trump's message. this whole experience is a reminder the republican party will change along the lines, outlined in the campaign. this statement is something more th that. it's suggesting a lack of unreality at the core of the trump campaign. this is not a statement a campaign is seeking to win would
issue. this is someone very open minded. within the context i live in. he's got something important to say. but just a matter of political fact, this statement tells you, they're not, like, facing what's happening. it's a little bit crazy. >> how do you think hillary clinton is perceiving this event? and this contest? and who do you think, at this point, she'd prefer to run against? >> no question. she'd rather run against donald trump. you know? i think that if you look at the match ups in polls, ted cruz does very well against hillary clinton and donald trump doesn't. now, i don't know if that is right. i think if we had a race, and donald trump was running against her, the dynamics could change because he's so unpredictable. we don't know what he could do. and he'd probably throw her off game a little bit. but he's he alienates women.
and in a broader context, he'd alienate women and generate enthusiasm for women voters which woo be good for hillary clinton. >> after losing wisconsin, the front runners moving ahead. how they're hoping to recapture momentum, right here in new york. >> and a look at the mind set of the wisconsin voters. what the exit polls are saying led them to cast their ballots the way they did. more coming up, stay with us. i have asthma... ...one of many pieces in my life. so when my asthma symptoms kept coming back on my long-term control medicine, i talked to my doctor and found a missing piece in my asthma treatment.
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>> i look forward to coming back to the state of wisconsin this fall. for the first time since 1984 and let me just say, hillary clinton get ready. here we come. >> ted cruz looking to the general election after a win in wisconsin. why people voted the way they did, martha? >> this is a time of the night we try to see the round up and take a look at how it came about. cruz's strength in wisconsin, he won with men, women, he won all education groups. he won conservative voters,
highest ever vote for him in a group he's carried in more than half of the contest so far. he won evangelical christians again. he carried them in wisconsin. 56%. in some states, donald trump has beaten him with evangelical voters. voters whose top quality is a candidate that shares their values. this is another solid ted cruz group. it's been the cruz camp strategy to turn out the base. he claimed voters stayed home for mitt romney, he wanted to bring them out rather than try to lean middle to expand the republican voter base. however, he won electability. this is a kind of thing going for a marco rubio candidate in
the past. 68% of the voters say they want experience, that is an area we saw rubio's strength. and when looking at experience, those are areas john kasich should be able to make a good argument for. that is not impressing voters tonight. they may have felt john kasich wasn't going to win there and moved on. so trump continued to do well. among voters who look for an outsider candidate. four other groups have been in the trump camp. those who want to do deport illegal immigrants and those who support a temporary ban on allowing muslims in the united
states. and cruz had an edge on a couple of those, going to this idea cruz and trump have a lot in common but people start to see cruz as someone more electable, that might sway them. are the voters trying ted cruz on for size? they appear doing that to some extent. but that is how things shaped up tonight in wisconsin, and new york is straight ahead. and we'll see what lies ahead there. back to you. >> thank you. >> you bet. >> the campaign cowboys are here now. chris wallace, karl rove, and joe trippi. take it away, guys. >> thank you, bret. yes, the campaign cowboys have been crunching numbers to get a sense of how the delegates are going to end up shaking out in wisconsin.
>> hooks like the third and seventh will fall, meaning as of tonight, at the end of tonight, using numbers, the not trump forces will grow from a majority of 126 to 156. yes. >> so that is what you're thinking and nontrump leading by 156 delegates. >> right. >> let's talk about new york. trump is at 53%. so you've got to think trump is going to bring up what cruz is going after trump on, new york values. >> the interesting question is remember the structure of the new york primary.
tonight. >> it's going to go up for both of them a little bit. looks like in the teens he'll pick up 14% to 16 delegates. a big closing of the gap with her, huge lead in delegates. >> no. that is the problem that is on the democratic side. going to new york we don't have the kind of situation that is outlined. look. we're now moving to states. we've been through a series of states and are going to new york, pennsylvania, maryland. >> one last question. >> pennsylvania, 71 delegates.
54 are unbalanced. does that mean trump wins with 54%? >> you vote for the delegates and it has people who are party leaders there. >> we saw this before, 1976. one of the two big delegations. ronald reagan picks a senator in an attempt to snake the nomination away from gerald ford. doesn't work out. >> guys in new york it could oent only get more interesting. >> incredible. >> amazing. >> thank you. >> a contested convention more of a possibility after the primary. >> some saying the republican nomination is anyone's race. what will the republican national convention look like?
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all three republican candidates are set to go. we're halfway through the primaries and it's not clear who will be the nominee making a contested convention more of a possibility. josh putnam, founder of front loading headquarters joins us now to talk about the possibility. josh, thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> do you think this looks more likely? >> well, there are 42 delegates on the line tonight. certainly it was perhaps a boon for the not trump movement. we're two thirds of the way through. >> the thing people don't understand and chris wallace talked about it in pennsylvania was you have the cruz campaign able to convince people if it's
a second ballot, come their way. >> that is right. not only with the smaller number, but the cruz camp seems to be doing a better job in the election process. >> trump is winning allocation process. but the cruz camp has to this point shown we've seen a couple states where trump won. that is our organization. >> absolutely, absolutely. they did leg work. and early part of the year that
they'll be free to potentially vote for cruz. >> the week before the convention, is an important time. the delegates get there and they makeup the rules. >> we're getting into the heart of delegates selection season. once delegations are in place, they'll choose from among their ranks to represent them on the rules committee. that is when a lot of the decisions are going to be made on the convention. >> take it from there. you get to a first ballot. if a candidate doesn't get to the majority, what happens? >> it's hard to say. there is a rule 40 b out there
that set a thesh hold for delegates to be placed in nomination. and both campaigns are behaving in the rule and so they're likely to try to keep it that way so that will benefit them if they can keep it among the two of them and prevent kasich or others if getting on the ballot. >> there are different rules for the second ballot. right. right. >> the more delegates are going to be free. we get 60% of them that are free. and again, getting through
second and third ballot we get to 100% unbound. >> i'm going to ask how long between first and second ballot. how long, when we come right back. of your allergy season for continuous relief. with claritin you get powerful, non-drowsy relief 24 hours a day, day after day. and with fewer symptoms to distract you... ...you can focus on the extraordinary every single day. live claritin clear. every day. one week only, save up to $31 on claritin products. check this sunday's newspaper. and clean and real and inside jokes and school night. good, clean food pairs well with anything. try the clean pairings menu. at panera. food as it should be.
we found josh so fascinating we brought him back. so, josh, how long before the first ballot and second? >> i think we don't know at this point. there is no real clear part of the rules that suggest that you know, today, or 24 hours or what. >> could it be five minutes? >> it could be. right? i mean, there is enough ambiguity they can launch into a sek role call. >> that is something ted cruz could be pushing for. >> sure, sure. i mean, if the cruz camp feels like they've got a number of committed delegates for that second ballot, then, off they go. how do they vote? >> normally, this goes is that they do roll call of the state, from state to state, and there is a state delegation chair
calling up the votes. and then, as rules are written, the secretary of the convention calls out only the votes. >> point votes? you say it's not like secret ballots? >> it's not like secret ballots. that is the way it tends to be done. you know, we usually only have one of these. >> right. >> so this is beyond one. >> bret, it's been a pleasure. from the sound of it, we're going to have work to do. but we're not done, our coverage will continue. >> "hannity" is up next. ... and reduce shock by 40%. so i feel like i'm ready to take on anything. don't let dust and allergies get and life's beautiful moments.
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prognosticators. i'm megyn kelly. this is "the kelly file." and thanks. this is a fox news alert. welcome to "hannity." tonight the battle for wisconsin, on the republican side, fox news is now projecting senator ted cruz, he will win the badger state. donald trump second. governor kasich third place and as for the democrats, bernie sanders will in fact defeat hillary clinton. sanders won 6 of the last 7 democratic state contests. joining us now with reaction, former speaker of the house newt gingrich and contributor that h admit this is one of the most fascinating, interest