tv The Real Story With Gretchen Carlson FOX News April 14, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm PDT
miss own views any moment now. in the past he has said that there's a much higher bar to prosecute than it is for the police to charge. we just got a hint of what he was likely to say at the podium. it's a remarkable document explaining why they're not charging donald trump's campaign manager with simple battery basically blaming the reporter, michelle field, for not obeying instructions moving to the back of that ballroom with the rest of the media, for penetrating the bubble. >> florida which includes palm beach county. i'm joined by my chief assistant adrian ellis covering all the misdemeanors in this circuit including simple battery. miss ellis performed a thorough r review of this. i agree with miss ellis's analysis in the closeout memo. as state attorney i have mid the
decision that this office will not be filing charges against cory lewandowski for battery. we will make miss ellis's memorandum available to all of you. it's important to note that despite several media reports, this matter was never charged by -- are we all good? all right. it's important to note that despite several media reports, this matter was never charged by this office. it was charged by the jupiter police department which found probable cause that mr. lewandowski committed a simple battery against miss michelle fields. as is the normal process, the jupiter police department made a decision based on probable cause to issue a notice to appear to mr. lewandowski. afterwards the jupiter police department sent our office a case file and we conducted an independent review to determine
whether we would pursue the charges. jupiter police chief frank kitzero and the police department do an outstanding job and worked well within their authority to investigate and make an independent charging decision. we agree that probable cause exists for the jupiter police department to have charged mr. lewandowski in this case. as prosecutors, however, our standard for filing criminal charges is higher than mere probable cause. we have the burden of proving each case beyond a reasonable doubt. in doing so, a prosecutor must have a good-faith basis that the evidence presented will sustain a conviction. while the evidence in this case is legally sufficient for the police to have charged mr. lewandowski, it is not strong enough to meet the legal burden of a reasonable likelihood of a conviction. it is unethical for us to file
cases when we believe there is not a good-faith basis to proceed. here are some of the facts as stated in ms. ellis's closeout memorandum. on march 8th, 2016, news report jeremy shell fields was covering a campaign event in the ballroom at the trump international golf club in jupiter. presidential candidate donald trump had just completed a press conference. afterwards he left the podium and was moving towards the ballroom exit. he had a number of secret service agents attempting to maintain space between him and the public. the full video recording shows secret service agents clearing the pathway ahead of mr. trump. specifically, it appears that ms. fields was directed to the back of the room, along with other members of the media. after initially complying with the directive, misfields returned to the pathway area and walked directly alongside mr.
trump attempting to ask questions of him. it appears based on the freeze frames from the video recording and an independent photograph taken by a washington post photographer that ms. fields brushed or touched mr. trump's arm. he then appears to react to ms. fields by pulling his arm back and away from her at which time mr. lewandowski reached forward and grabbed ms. fields' arm pulling her away from mr. trump. both mr. trump and mr. lewandowski then continued towards the exit at the back of the room. after reviewing the video recording, there is no reasonable doubt that mr. lewandowski and -- mr. lewandowski pulled ms. fields back as she was attempting to interview mr. trump. according to an affidavit submitted by former fbi agent, when tasked with the protection of a political candidate, secret
service agents will create a protective bubble. this protective bubble is created to prevent unauthorized individuals from getting too close to the person regardless of whether or not they are members of the press. more importantly, under these circumstances it is not uncommon for a candidate's inner circle staff members known to the agents to assist in clearing a safe pathway. it should be noted, however, that one agent was positioned directly behind miss fields and appeared to show no concern over her actions. mr. lewandowski could have called this agent's attention to her movements before taking action himself if he considered her a threat. in addition, soon after the incident mr. lewandowski publicly denied ever touching ms. fields in any way. although these factors might undermine mr. lewandowski's
potential defense, they do not outweigh the reasonable hypothesis of innocence based on the real-time facts and circumstances recorded on the video. as stated earlier, law enforcement arrests are based upon probable cause. state prosecutions, however, relies on a good faith basis that sufficient evidence exists to prove a case beyond a reasonable doubt. this includes consideration of any apparent defenses. although the facts support the allegation that mr. lewandowski did grab ms. fields' arm against her will, mr. lewandowski has a reasonable hypothesis of innocence. there is insufficient evidence to rebut these defenses, therefore, although probable cause exists, the state will no file this case.
now available for any questions you may have for me or ms. ellis. >> were you called about whether or not -- >> hi, glen. how are you? >> good. >> you? >> good, thank you. >> did it enter into what your process was considering a simple battery case? >> well, as far as our review of the case, it was just like any other case. i do acknowledge that there is international attention to this case, which doesn't exist in just about any other simple battery case, so that's why, you know, we have a press conference like this, but as far as the actual work that was done, the review, the analysis, it's the same as in every case. brian, you had a question. >> there had been reports that you attempted to facilitate a deal for mr. lewandowski to publicly apologize. is that true? >> the apology in a case like this obviously would be encouraged. i mean, it's a good thing to happen. we always appreciate it when
people take responsibility for their actions, but i can tell you ms. ellis's decision and our decision in this case had nothing to do with the existence or non-existence of an apology. >> did you speak to mr. lewandowski? did your office interview him before you came to this conclusion? >> well, since ms. ellis was in charge of the investigation, i'll turn that specific question over to her. >> did you? >> no. no, we did not speak with mr. lewandowski. we spoke with his attorney. >> with his attorney? >> yes. >> did you have a personal meeting with him or just over the phone? >> yes, we spoke with him in person as well as over the phone. >> did he try to persuade you not to charge? did he give any reason for -- >> yeah. well, he came in with what he believed to be the facts of the case so he wanted to present what he believed to be the facts of the case and we took that into consideration. >> i'm sorry, just one more.
did the jupiter police department before they charged him initially because that happened within two days of the event, did they contact your office at all? >> no. >> no? that was entirely up to them at that point? >> correct. >> but they later got in touch with you. did you have meetings about how to go over that? >> the jupiter police department sent over the filing packet after the charges were filed. then when ms. ellis did our own investigation for the office, manage other things she interviewed the lead deek tekttive from the police department. in fact, that lead detective was here for more than an hour and a half. >> in addition to photographs [ inaudible ]. and the videotape that has been released, is there any other physical evidence that you looked at, any other videotapes that we haven't seen, any other photographs that we have not seen? >> no. we looked at -- obviously there was the photograph of a bruise on her arm that we reviewed and
in terms of anything else that we reviewed, everything else is taken from the actual video surveillance recording. still photographs from the freeze frame shots. >> does that include anything with the secret service directing her prior to that you can actually see them -- >> yes, sir. >> what is that? >> that is -- that is captured on the video surveillance recording. >> you can't see her arm. >> you can't necessarily hear because mr. trump is leaving -- making his way to the exit so you can't actually hear what's actually being said. you hear noise in the ballroom, but as they are making their way out is her along with other journalist's media being directed to the back of the ballroom. >> [ inaudible ]. >> no, we did not. >> associated press. can i ask --
>> yes. >> has anybody spoken to ms. fields today? does she support the decision. >> we both spoke to ms. fields today and i'll let you speak to her about her thoughts, but it was clear to us she was disappointed by the decision. >> how so? [ inaudible ] >> i mean, she wanted a prosecution to go forward. >> an apology, is there a story that if she were to get an apology she would not step back and ask for an apology. >> there was no deal that we were going to drop charges in exchange for an apology, but as i said earlier, in a case like this we do encourage an apology. had an apology been given we could have avoided the whole criminal justice process. >> has there been an apology? >> well, i know that they were working on one and they showed me a draft of an apology. i don't know -- >> who's they? >> the attorneys for the defendant. >> can you tell us what it says?
>> i would be paraphrasing it, but it was a short apology and it's up to them to reach out to ms. fields and send it to her. >> when did they show you that? >> it's -- >> earlier. >> recently. >> did you speak to ms. fields about the investigation? >> absolutely. >> at some length? >> yes. i spoke with mrs. field on three occasions. >> channel 25, when you saw the photograph of ms. field's bruces did it feel that they were erroneous? >> the initial photographs we received were a couple of days old because it was a delayed reporting. when i met with detectives in my office afterwards, i asked him to reach out and see if he could obtain a photograph. she had taken a photograph on
the iphone that evening and there was nothing really there. it was an investigation that i was wanting him to do to make a more thorough and complete investigation but the photograph that we have from herr, from actually the jupiter police department do show bruises but, you know, it wasn't anything that was -- what we got from her the actual night that it happened. >> her phone did not show any -- >> her phone didn't show any bruising, no. it wasn't until the photographs the detective would have picked up a couple of days later. >> but that's the quality of the photo, that's not that there was no injury? >> well, that's -- that's -- that's what can be happens when someone's bruised. >> it comes out later? >> yes, sir. can you talk about that protective bubble and kind of what she said? >> you know, we have a video,
the full video, and i think you may have it, but will you be showing that afterwards? yeah, we're going to show you the video, the full video afterwards and i think you'll be able to see for yourself what we mean by it. >> if you can explain what your findings were watching the video. >> the press was directed towards the back. there's this bubble and she makes her way beyond the press area and gets right next to mr. trump and actually makes slight contact with mr. trump. you can see that he sort of recoiled and that's when mr. lewandowski comes and grabs her arm. >> as the state attorney would you [ inaudible ]. >> well, it's our belief that what we saw in the video, that any contact was incidental and that is not contemplated under the simple battery statute which requires an intentional and unwanted touching. >> how common is it for your --
for a police agency to file a misdemeanor battery charge where they declined to charge it? >> it happens. it's not that uncommon. we review misdemeanor charges filed by police agencies. we ethically have to make a decision whether we have a good faith basis to prosecutor whether there's reasonable doubt. if we know in advance that reernl doubt exists and we're not going to be able to get a conviction or even beyond a judgment of acquittal by the judge, we can't ethically file those charges. >> would you guess 10% of the time, half the time? how often would you say the police agency brings a charge like that and you guys respond? >> often. you know, we have a domestic violence unit where we review domestic batteries all the time. instead of them actually arresting the person, they will present a profound package. a lot of those cases are not
violent as in this case. >> when she said that, it was not a clear majority. >> did you talk to anyone at the secret service directly about this incident? >> no, sir. it was an affidavit from an fbi agent but, no. >> and your conversations with ms. fields, were they in person or on the phone? >> on the phone. >> here in florida the state's attorney is elected. do you have any outside political influence on your decision here? how are you registered yourself? >> none. my political affiliations and leanings are all very public. they is an apolitical office. we're all elected with a party affiliation. once you get into this office and work as a state attorney, you're a state attorney for everyone and you have to run the office in a non-partisan manner. i have three fireproofs, al
johnson who's a registered democrat and adrian ellis who's no party affiliation. it's public, i am a registered democrat. >> did you ever talk to anyone from donald trump's campaign. did donald trump call you? >> he did reach out to this office. >> who did he speak to? >> he spoke to a few of us. he said he gave his version of the facts and his opinions of the case and then urged you off to do the right thing. >> what was his version of the facts? >> well, you were on the call. the version of the facts was that she touched him and pretty much that's it. she touched him and he did not think that mr. lewandowski should be prosecuted for it. >> did he say whether he felt threatened or scared or concerned. >> no. he just said that she -- she --
she touched him and all that is captured on the video surveillance. and you guys are going to see it so, you know, she -- it was quite evident. >> hook up the videotape or did you have to twist their arm? >> the video was -- >> when was the call? >> a couple of weeks ago. >> did he make any threats at all that he was thinking of filing charges against her? >> i don't remember any such threat. i can tell you that the conversation we had, mr. trump had no bearing upon our final decision in this case. just like i said earlier about the existence or nonexistence had no bearing in our case. what did have the sole bearing of our case were the facts of the case and the law. >> were there any notes or stenographer taken during that
conversation if it was on the phone so that we can make a request for those notes? >> i don't believe there were any notes taken but if there were. anything that's subject to sunshine would be available to you. >> several people at once? >> cre. correct. can you as a lodge hif time person with the politics, howell you knew him. yeah, i got a whole kick out of the political angle. they said i was doing this on behalf of hillary clinton. then they found out i was law school dorm mates with ted cruz. he and i actually shared a bathroom in law school. i assure you it had no impact. i knew mr. trump on a few occasions. i've been to miralago.
last time i was there, there was 800 people there. the fact that i have a relationship with the people running for president has no bearing on this case. our decision was made solely on the facts, the evidence and the law. >> what law school was that? >> it was harvard law school and it was hastings hall and i had a reporter call me to question me a couple weeks ago that somehow that was the reason why i did this and he asked me when's the last time i spoke to ted cruz. it was my third year of law school which would have been 20 years ago.
>> miss ellis's memo says campaign staff assists secret service in forming part of the bubble. is that written down anywhere? is that codified anywhere? is that sort of an accepted practice within campaigns? >> i believe that came from the sworn statement of the fbi agent. >> on the politics side you made it clear politics was not a factor in your decision, but did people try to influence you politically? >> no. absolutely not. >> your first name. >> adrinne. >> your title. >> one of the assistant attorneys. >> is there interest in the video?
as you can see right now. gretchen carlson back on "the real story," we're waiting for the district attorney dave ehrenberg and adrienne ellis there. they're about to show the video. i believe it's the same video we've been showing on loop here for the last 23 minutes that you've seen before, the surveillance video that shows the actual altercation, simple battery, whatever you want to call it. those charges are not going to be filed now even though they were originally presented by the police department there in jupiter. let's bring in real quickly greg jarrett who's been watching this who's also an attorney. it's really interesting because the police had a different
burden of proof than the state's attorney. what's the difference? >> probable cause. when you're a state's attorney you have to prove your case beyond a reasonable doubt. incredibly high burden. he had to project, the state's attorney, can i get this before 12 jurors, 6 jurors, whatever it is in florida and prove this beyond a reasonable doubt and i'm sure he concluded, heck, no, this ain't even close. first of all, it's kind of a minor battery. it's an offensive touching without permission. the injuries aren't severe. he didn't throw her to the floor. most importantly what they're about to show now is the videotape. that is better than any eye witness. why? because it doesn't lie and they felt it corroborated the defense that lewandowski is entitled to help defent donald trump. >> it's interesting. in this report adrienne ellis put together and said michelle
fields was directed by the secret service to go to the back when mr. trump was making his way through and apparently she did not listen to that. she came to the front. here's the video right here. john roberts is right here. he's been covering the case as well. john, it went on to say it should be noted that one of the secret service agents didn't get that offended by ms. fields being that close. maybe mr. lewandowski could have called attention to her before taking action himself. >> i've spent a lot of time with the trump campaign and know cory lewandowski as well. there's a bubble the secret service likes to draw around them. the one thing they will always admonish you whenever you're riding with them, never get between them, the agent and the protectee. cory lewandowski is very protective of donald trump. he was also in law enforcement in new hampshire and it may be said that he over reajted just a
little bit. he didn't want somebody bothering donald trump so he intervened himself whereas he should have brought it to the age agent's attention. i can imagine that was the situation knowing the parties the way i do. >> another interesting thing that came out of this was the fact that mr. trump had himself called down to speak to the attorneys. i don't think anybody is very surprised by that. that phone call had nothing to do with what our decision was here. >> yeah, and i would expect him to say that. but trump's version of events certainly corroborate what is seen on the videotape and corroborated by a secret service agent as well as cory lewandowski, all of whom have been interviewed. john dire said maybe liu reacted. it's an astute point.
it's called imperfect defense of another, honest but mistaken belief that he thought trump was in danger. >> as aaron berg pointed out, it's not unusual for staff to react. south of des moines in the very early going. the crowd was filing out and he was shaking some hands and i met him several times before, interviewed him a number of times. i wanted some information so i walked up to the front to tell him about it. one of his people came up, it was a woman, put her hand on my shoulder as if to take me out of there, sorry -- >> don't file that. >> that's a battery. >> please. then he recognized me, shook my hand and he backed off. that's a similar situation. would i have pressed charges in that case? no, it was me who made the attempt to go up and sit with her. >> what about the supposed deal? there was talk of the deal for a supposed apology. i'm going to be quiet in case
there's audio. >> you see her here with the green. that's michelle fields. right there. and you see the agent -- >> let me help you out here. let me help out your case. >> the assistant prosecutor has a green dot on the screen pointing out where michelle fields is. when she gets to the green dots you'll see where she is. >> that's her there. >> you can see the whole protective bubble thing as it unfolds. so of course this is a portion of the videotape that we have not seen. >> okay. so basically all media has been directed towards the back of the ballroom as we indicated earlier.
>> could you show us again with the green dot where she is. >> yeah, she's right there. she's right there. >> is that mr. trump and cory? >> they're still in this scrum area. >> that's where donald trump is at the top? >> yes. he's still in this area here. this is her here. >> so those are all the reporters at the back that have been directed to the back? >> yes. >> this is her. she's moving.
she's moving. she's now making her way back over. now she's going in. this is when she goes into the protected area that she did not -- she's not allowed to be in basically. this is her here and mr. trump here. >> and cory behind. >> so here we go right here. this is where it happens. you see him pull his arm right there. that's mr. lewandowski there. goes really quick. we had to play it a few times ourselves to capture it. you can see when she gets next to him, she touches him and you see mr. trump recoil his arm like that, and that is the point at which mr. lewandowski reaches in because from his vantage
point. he reaches in and grabs her arm to pull her to the side. >> did the fact that she touched him first have any bearing on this office's decision not to charge lewandowski with touching her? >> no. >> the fact she touched him first? >> the fact that she touched trump have anything to do with the fact that -- >> the direct bearing on the fact that you're not charging lewandowski with touching her? >> we're not charging him because he was reacting to what he perceived as a potential threat. >> we've been listening to the potential chief attorney describe this videotape from a different angle of what we're seeing of the incident and whether or not michelle fields touched donald trump first, presidential candidate, if that had any decision on the beerg of him not going through.
she is answering, yes, it did. quite quickly, greg jerry, of course. >> defense of others. if you genuinely believe or mistakenly believe that someone is in danger, then you are allowed legally to intervene and that's what it came down to. >> john roberts, you're also still here with us on the set and you were noticing from the different angle now of the new video that shows michelle fields in the background back in the area in which the press was told to go back to, had she just stayed there, what might have happened? >> here's the thing. as a correspondent reporter, you always want to put yourself in the best position to get a sound bite to break the news to get close to the candidate. that was a more fuller version of the surveillance video than we've seen before. he walks right past where she was. if she had stayed where she was she could have door stopped him on the way out. any time you leave the position
you're asked to stay in and you go inside that bubble or you attempt to get inside that bubble, it's a different set of rules. and you can be physically shoved out of the way. i remember we were doing an interview with ben carson and we were walking out of the hotel. one of the secret service agents who hadn't been fully briefed grabbed our two camera men and physically shoved them out of the way. so you've got to be careful. you're rolling the dice when you get into an area like that. >> she still has a defamation lawsuit. i never touched her. that's the real next case. >> i want to come back to it in a minute. let's go to steve harry began. steve, are you still out in
cal -- in florida? . >> reporter: we are, gresh chen. it all started with the campaign manager, cory lewandowski, touching michelle fields now it's all about michelle lewandowski touching donald trump. now we have them saying cory lewandowski is justified in giving some of those -- >> it was fascinating to see how this has turned the other direction. one thing i want to get from you, steve, is the state attorney was asked if you had any contact with ms. fields to say they were not pressing charges. they said they did and she was disappointed. can you tell us anything more about these. >> she wasdisappointed, she wanted the prosecution to go ahead. you can tell they're still reeling here. it's a simple battery case and
they've gotten the attention. they're a bit shaken by all of the attention. they're careful how much information they're giving out. >> steve harry began. just one final question, civil case now that this new evidence has flipped the direction? would they do that? >> yeah. look. defamation is an untrue statement but then damages someone's name and basically called her a liar and saying she was delusional. the videotape actually belies that. he appears to be the liar. she can sue him. does she have damages? i'd say yes. her job departure was precipitous. she's been raked over the coals in the media. damages. >> she's a public figure. that could change things. >> one other thought politically, this has been a cloud hanging over the trump campaign. the cloud has dissipated, the clouds have cleared.
increasingly they're moving to their office in d.c., paul manafort the dangler, taking over a lot of the operations going forward. this may be a simple footnote to the entire campaign but i'm sure they're happy to have it cleared off the deck. >> great to have you both here while we watch this all unfold. john, greg, steve. donald trump's campaign reaching out to supporters today on the hill hosting a meetings to those who have endorsed him as he seeks to brodsen his field. congressmen, great to have you on "the real story." >> great to be here. >> congressman barletta, you have endorsed donald trump. >> i have, correct. >> what would you like to tell us what happened at this meeting today? >> really it was the trump campaign transitioning into the next face. that's reaching out and bringing
the members into the fold. this is the first of what will be weekly meetings that we'll have working as a member with the trump folks. >> okay. congressman marino, have you officially endorsed donald trump? >> oh, yes. i did that some time ago. >> you're both from pennsylvania. i understand one other really important thing coming out of this meeting were people said they believe he can achieve the 1237 delegates. pennsylvania contest is coming up soon. it's a pli kacomplicated proces. what do you think is going to happen in your state? >> in my district and northeastern pennsylvania i haven't seen anything like this in a long time. we're seeing the record number of democrats switching to both for donald trump.
>> very interesting. i want to show you this brand-new poll that came out. donald trump holding onto the double digit lead. he gets 44% and cruz had 28%, kasich at 23%. congressman marino? were you surprised that members of congress don't want to endorse ted cruz or donald trump. >> not particularly. there are a lot of people at this meeting than there were last time. particularly a pennsylvania college, we're at the point where i think some of them are going to come out and because of the ground game we have going. lou and i chair the state chair for donald trump campaign. this is a phenomena. i've been involved in politics for quite a while. more people that have never voted or haven't voted in the last 20 years are coming out
telling us they're supporting trump. >> right. i think that's something that's definitely happened, that he has ginned up this interest among people who have maybe had political apathy. do you agree with donald trump saying that the system is crooked and rigged? >> this is -- my honest opinion that it is weighted against an outsider. there are 64 di 4 delegates who be elected in april will go there and have much say than the popular vote will mean. basically delegates are folks who have been connected to the political system. the support that donald trump has is an organic ground swell of people who are probably not delegates. >> true. >> the system self is more weighted for somebody who is
more connected or an establishment than somebody from the outside who the american people say they want. they want an outsider. >> fascinating discussion. congressmen from pennsylvania, thank you. >> you're welcome. we've been doing a lot of number crunching over the last few weeks. now we have some more for you. new analysis of voters in all 50 states and what the data says about which republican presidential candidate can actually beat hillary clinton. before earning enough cash back from bank of america to buy a new gym bag.
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welcome back to "the real story." a new study reveals that john kasich is the only gop contender that could get more electoral college votes than hillary clinton. that compiled by morning consult. media and survey technology company joins me now. michael, let's go ahead and show how this all plays out according to your research, trump versus
clinton. clinton 328, trump 210. clinton versus cruz, 332/cruz 206. then we get to john kasich, kasich 304, clinton 234. why? >> i think what your' seeing there is a snapshot of favorability. i think one of the things that decision makers in cleveland out of the republican convention, if it's an open convention, have to consider is electability. we have a weekly tracking poll powered by lucid. we ask about head-to-head match-ups. because we're able to analyze that data, we find some intriguing results. it's exactly what you just said. the math looks bigger. there's more battle grounds for john kasich than what the math looks like for donald trump or ted cruz. and in that case it looks a lot like what the obama election
looks like in 2012. >> if you see the lighter blue or lighter red, they show states where the race is very close, is that correct? >> that's correct. we're six months out from an election. about 18% of voters are undecided, and that's even in the case of trump and clinton who have almost near universal name i.d. there is still this undecided population that may swing some of those elections. i think what this shows is a snapshot in time all the way through now the primaries that there is an uphill climb for cruz or trump if they're the nominee. it does highlight regional favoritism for john kasich. you see wisconsin. >> it's interesting. i was going to name some of those states. michigan, minnesota, ohio, pennsylvania, wisconsin you from your analysis, they seem to be going towards kasich. >> that's right. i think there's two pieces to that. one is, he's a midwestern governor. the second is that he's the only candidate in the race right now with favorability above his net
negative favorability. if you think of it that way, he really starts with a bigger opening chant rather than some of the other candidates who have had some negative advertising or negative components. >> it's interesting and i don't know if you know the answer to this, but why hasn't he done better? >> i think that's the million dollar question for the kasich campaign. is it built for a general election versus is it built for a primary election. that's the nuancenuances. you're looking at different state momentum swings. he had his biggest momentum coming out of new hampshire. he won his home state. that's where we see a lot of the home value is analyzes the biggest and best dataset. >> if people want to look at this, where do they go? >> they should go to morning consult.com and see the full 50 state analysis. >> michael, thanks much. appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. republican national committee member has said donald
trump could get less than the necessary 1237 delegates and still win the nomination. we're going to talk to him about what he said next. this as trump continues to say the rules are unfair so that brings us to our brand-new question of the day. are the gop rules set against donald trump? tweet yes or no at gretchen carlson #therealstory. i asked on twitter and you're weighing in. right now more than half of you say this. 60% yes. this is live real time so get on twitter. let me know what you think. 60 states staked against real donald trump. 40% say, no.
he will become the nominee even though he may not have 1237. if he gets less than a thousand delegates i think we're looking at a contested convention that could go on for many, many days. >> and randy evans joins me now. 1100 is the magic number number? i thought it was 1237. >> it is 1237. i said if he gets to 1100, the band wagon effect will take over, people will be jumping on the trump trade and he'll ride to 1237. it's part of the political process. people on the sidelines suddenly
decide he's close enough, they want to be on the winning teams and they typically attract a lot of delegates toward the end. >> have you heard about the moment, though, hash tag never trump? there are people who don't want him to get the nomination just as many -- a lot of people do want him to get the nomination. >> i think that's right. i think once you get that close to 80 to 90% of the requisite delegates, after that the momentum takes over and it's hard to stop that kind of animal when you're close to the convention. >> so all these unbound delegates that ted cruz supposedly has had great organization throughout the states, going and trying to get them on his side on a second, third, fourth ballot, what do you make of that organization versus donald trump just sort of getting into the game later on? you still think if he has 1100 he can sway the delegates? >> i think so. i think the band wagon effect is so dominant in politics. people want to access -- suddenly have an outsider and
they're willing to be on the winning team. i will say this. ted crews has the most impressive ground operation i've seen and i've seen a lot of presidential campaigns. but that's a great example. 54 unbound delegates in the state of pennsylvania. those are the kind of delegates -- some who is really close, can push them right over the top. >> so wasn't the trial balloon to put out 1100 because the rules committee could make that change. >> no they couldn't make that chipping. only the convention itself can make that change. the standing rules committee now can only make recommendations to the full convention the convention rules committee can make recommends but at the end of the day it's the convention itself that adopts its open rules. >> some of the unbound delegates that cruz or trump or kashich -- ore maybe even rubio -- they are the rubio delegates. he has 172. doing the math now, 34 of those are going into the convention
unbound. did you ever think we would be discussing the complexity of all of these delegates? >> actually, i did. when we compress schedule and started with 17 candidates, i thought there was a one in three chance we would have a contested convention. now thed odds are going up every day. >> very being. okay. and to re-align my numbers, rubio is 171. we're constantly number crunching here. 171 delegate he has. time now for my take. they say the devil is in the details and that's true when trying to figure out how all the delegates work. we just focused on the marco rubio delegates. he won 171. since the 17 delegates he won in minnesota are bound to him only if he is actually on the first ballot, well, that presents a
problem. right? same thing for his 12 delegates in oklahoma. those delegates will be free to vote phenomenon whomever they cheese because they're not on the below ball lat. it's the rule 40b thing, you have to have won eight states. the nine delegate of rubio are bound to him, the first two. in nevada, rubio is entitled to hold to be this seven delegates free to do whatever he want of rye lease them to the remaining candidates. all up to him. let's go a.m. rubio has one delegate. that delegate is until formally released or two-thirds of the state's delegate vote to lease that one delegate. got it? that's just looking at some of rubio's delegates. check out how close this russian plane comes to a u.s.
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trump? carey says, yes, they're stacked against the people and donald trump. they should recognize who the people are voting for. one says, no, ignorance of law and rules does not invalidate either. trump is infantile. lots of responses. went up to 70%. >> what is this, an invasion? right here in new york. the sun finally out three-quarterses are finally blooming. everybody is walking around all happy for new yorkers, you know. and all of a sudden they are here. all of them. they are everywhere. forget about it. uptown, downtown, east side, west side, bronx, queens, brooklyn, staten island, car 54 where are you? probably blocking traffic for a candidate and drastically changing the mood of the drivers across the five