tv The Kelly File FOXNEWSW April 19, 2016 6:00pm-7:01pm PDT
that's the question. it could be a big thing. >> something big. panel, thank you. >> we are watching the polls tonight. we are now just a few seconds before the top of the hour where we are prepared to make a race call, at least on one side. stand by for that. it is 9:00 p.m. here on the east side. welcome to "the kelly file," coverage of the new york primary. my friend bret here with me. as polls close across the state, fox news can now project that new york businessman donald trump will win the empire state's republican presidential primary based on fox exit polls. how big is trump's victory? he may end up exceeding 50% of the vote here, which would be a first for him in any state. ohio governor john kasich is currently well ahead of texas senator ted cruz in the race for second place. but it is too early to say who will take the silver and who will take the bronze on that side. >> it is also too early to say whether former secretary of state hillary clinton will beat
vermont senator bernie sanders. that's big news. fox exit polls show a tight race between clinton who you may remember representing new york for eight years in t u.s. senate and sanders who was born and raised in brooklyn. this is a huge story tonight, obviously donald trump and the margin of victory that he will have here is a big story. but if it's five points, if it's less than five points, i know it's all about the math, but that's significant. >> talking about the dems side. exactly. >> yes. >> she was supposed to blow him out and was beating him significantly before. he tightened it. eastbound though mathematically he needs to win in order to chal enl her in the numbers there's a question about psychologically what this does and how the race will shape up thereafter. i want to bring back our pa dana perino, julie, tucker carlson and dana lesch is here as well, the host of "dana." dana lash, let me start with you since we haven't heard from you yet. ted cruz poised to come in third, not yet official. it's not good for him.
one thing we're seeing from the exit polls is in were three little words that hurt him badly, "new york values." too short-sided? >> no, i don't think so. i mean, when was talking about new york values he's talking about the new york progressive value that's are ruining an awesome city. that's at least what i got. of course i come from the midwest where i'm always told i come from a cow town and everyone questions whether i and everyone else shares genes, dna. that being said, i don't think that the cruz campaign -- they weren't anticipating that he was going to come in first. it's donald trump's home state, of course he's going to come in first place in new york. and i would expect john kasich to do incredibly well if not beat ted cruz in the state of new york because he's more of a moderate. new yorkers, even though you can have republican new yorkers, they tend to go for a maybe more moderate republican. that's not anything to be upset about. it's just to be expected. nobody was freaking out when ted cruz was first place in texas and donald trump wasn't. it kind of goes with the territory, it being your home state. >> dana perino, in this case, if
john kasich finishes well ahead of ted cruz as we are seeing it right now, does he have a heart beat even though mathematically he has no way to get to 1237 other than a second or third ballot at the convention? >> he certainly has a stronger argument than he's had in the last few weeks as everyone has been telling him to drop out. if he's able to do that and you look at the demographics of new york and you look at the new england state that's are going to vote next tuesday on april 26th, i think john kasich would be able to say, not only have i won in those states or at least come in second, but you look at all the polls we have and i'm the only one who can beat hillary clinton in a head-to-head matchup. so take another look at me. i don't think he has -- i don't think he has a real reason to drop out, especially if he comes in second tonight. >> he's only won ohio. he came in second in new hampshire. he may come in second tonight. >> right. and he could probably do well next week. i understand the calls. in fact, even mitt romney today seemed to indicate that cruz or kasich should get out, and it seemed to me that he was
signaling that kasich should be the one to get out. but i think kasich has a case to make that if no one gets to 1237, why not stay and try to win and try to lead the republican party? he'll say, you have to win ohio. i won ohio. i turned that state around. the thing i think is really hard for him is across the board in every one of these contests we've seen the majority of people want an outsider. that is true tonight in new york and it will be true probably next week. he won't beat donald trump nexxt week. could he come in second over cruz? probably. >> tucker, how significant is this victory for dond trump? because he's i think in the last 14 polls he's been winning. however, he suffered a defeat in wisconsin. campaign had a few missteps. now he appears to have come roaring back in his home state. it looks like he's not winning it by a little. it looks like he's winning by a lot. going into a field of states that looks very good for him. >> i think had a few missteps
may be one of most profound understatements i've heard in a while. it's been a flagrant flaming disaster for the last month. >> tell us how really feel. >> i'm not hostile. i'm just an observer. but he won majority of an important state. this is a serious state, one of the biggest states. he just won it overwhelmingly. what does it tell us? he's running a brill valiant campaign? of course not. it tells us he's doing things, saying things that people wanted to hear. he's doing what the establishment on the republican side and the democratic side, you can say this about bernie as well, should have been doing. he is a referendum on them and they have come up far short. so the question is really, how will the parties adjust in the next three or four cycles to prevent something like this from happening again? you can't just say, we're going to make john kasich the nominee and forget this ever happened. that's not good fog work. you need to change. are they going to? >> julie, the trump campaign i think is acknowledging they had to change. they have new leadership.
there's a shift in the interior workings of the campaign as they hunt for delegates around the country. trump will probably say tonight, the people who know me best elected me most. because it will be the highest margin likely, the next highest was massachusetts. will that be compelling for the rest of the republican party? >> you know, i think it's a compelling message. certainly he has a right to say it and he'll be right about it. bulook, donald trump, the math is irrevocable. he has to get to 1237. if he doesn't, to tucker's point, does the establishment get together and say, look, we will live with ted cruz who a year ago we all loathed and despised. but in order to save what is left of us and of our power, are we going to deliver this nomination to ted cruz on the second ballot, second ballot and 15th ballot in order to prevent a trump candidacy? and at that point does the republican party just splinter apart? because you have voters like in new york tonight and all over the country who will deliver a plurality to donald trump but will potentially see the nomination taken from him by the
so-called party bosses. that is something the republican party and reince priebus, god bless him, has the worst job in america, something he has to be worried about more than anybody else. >> it seems like the republicans are ticked off that the so-called establishment, they don't have party bosses. democrats have them. they built them into the system, the superdelegates. reince is like, is it me? mitch mcdonnell is like, is it me? >> there are establishment people in washington who really would love that superdelegate system but they don't have it. >> anything could happen in 2020. >> there you go. >> so how does the delegate math work out for republicans? let's head back to bill hemmer for that at the billboard. bill, what about it? >> so we have crunch the numbers, bret, among all the states that remain. and we've cross-referenced all the political websites. here's what we're going to do. we're going to take new york out of the equation because we do not know how the delegates will divide tonight. so a week from now, trump starts at 756, he knees to get to 1237. we think he'll do really well in
rhode island, connecticut, delaware, maryland, pennsylvania. now we're in the month of may. there is very little information out of indiana. we do not know which way the hoosiers state will go at the moment. we stand by what we said a week ago, we believe it favors cruz. could change. we'll see. then you move to nebraska, that favors cruz as well as virginia favors trump. we think oregon goes for trump slightly, washington state for cruz slightly. again, all of this can change as we move through. now we're at june 7th. we think winner-take-all montana and south dakota both go for cruz. we think new mexico is too close to call, 50/50 split. so now we are in california. and as we said a week ago and a week prior to that, we think trump can get 100 delegates in california which takes him to 1,029. the same day new jersey winner-take-all we believe goes to trump as well. he's 157 shy of this number of 1237 if he were to get 80
delegates tonight from the state of new york, which is entirely possible, you cut this number in half and you're down to around 80 delegates after the 7th of june in california goes. at that point, bret, you would have about 170 unbound republican delegates who would go to cleveland, ohio, for the convention. and that's where the game will be played between june 8th and july 18th for those 170, if this scenario plays out. but again, check back in a week. it could all change, right? that's why we watch. bret, megyn, back to you. >> the art of the deal. that time frame, that is whether he could get those additional delegates. that may make the difference. >> absolutely right. martha mccallum has been looking at the exit polls an what new yorkers had to say after casting her votes. >> thanks, megyn. good evening. how donald trump won? new york voters want to shake things up and they want to do that big-time. look at these numbers. those who want an outsider trump
clobbered the competition on this. he got 85% of the outsider vote. that's something he has split in the past in some places with ted cruz. kasich got 6% as you can see. they are also angry with the federal government. they want change there. he dominates with this grum as well, 72% on that measure. and we all remember when donald trump declared himself a candidate, a few blocks from here in the summer. he talked about immigration, got in hot water for talking about it. that issue is very strong for the voters in new york state. and like gop staters in all contests so far, here nearly 7 in 10 are concerned about the safety of letting in refugees from the war zone. they want to see that temporary ban that donald trump talked about on muslims entering the united states in big numbers and they went for him as well. he wins there clearly. so trump also carried some groups he doesn't usually win with tobtd. he did better among high income voters. he got 61% of those earning more than $100,000.
yet only 50% of those earning less than $50,000. those are groups he's been real strong with in the past. so despite his strong win here in new york, however, the republican party from these numbers and everything we're seeing remains very divided, as you all were just talking about. 60% of gop voters say the republican campaign this year has divided the party. only 36% say that this race and all that has come with it has energized their party. the numbers are really much different than that on the democratic side. they seem to be very happy with how things are going and they feel it's energizing their party. take a look at this. this is strong as well. if trump is the nominee -- and this is among new york gop voters -- a quarter of them say that they would not vote for him if he becomes the nominee. for ted cruz, that number is 40%, dead set against him if he's the nominee. kasich who many believe appeals to a broad moderate voter, high
income new york republican, 3 in 10, 30% say if he becomes the nominee they will not vote for john kasich. so some very strong feelings are out there. we're getting a very good feel for them in these exit polls tonight. we'll have more as we go through the evening. back to you. >> thank you. >> one important thing before we go to the campaign kpou boys, the democratic race is tight, too early to call now. we're getting raw vote totals coming in quickly, but it's tight. remember the breaking news at the beginning, ed henry saying 125,000 people may have been left off the rolls an investigation ongoing. that could factor in as we get more and more into the night. >> they're saying entire city blocks had their registration wiped out. these people show up to vote in brooklyn -- keep in mind, new yorkers are not used to being relevant in the presidential campaign. >> or ever waiting. >> we don't wait. you walk too slow on the sidewalk, you could be in real trouble. it's the one thing we're really irritated by.
now they're being told, you can fill out a provisional ballot. can you imagine what's going on in brooklyn as these people hear that? >> that's a lot of people. keep that in mind as we go through the night. let's bring in our campaign cowb cowboy. karl rove was deputy chief of staff to president george w. bush. f fox news contribute rs. chris, take it away. >> thank you so much, bret. as we've been saying it's a big night for donald trump. he's going to get 50%, 55% of the vote. that means he'll get if he does get more than 50% all 14 of the at-large delegates. then there are in effect separate elections in each of the 27 congressional districts. that's what i want to drill into right now with you, karl rove, because awful these congressional districts, particularly when you're talking about republican voters are not created equal, right? >> that's right. not all districts have the same number of republicans.
let's take a look the some districts. congressional district 27 which is in the far western part of the zastate, buffalo, represent by congressman collins, the first member of the house to endorse donald trump, has 177,013 registered republicans. remember, this is a closed primary. you have to be a registered republican in order to participate. next up is cd 21, the northern part of the, 165,000. on the other hand, take these two districts, 15 in the bronx, jose serrano represents this district. there are 13,270 republicans and they get just as many delegates, three delegates, as each of these two districts up here get. charlie rangel's district in harlem, 16,307 republicans, they get three delegates. now, what we have is in these three areas, the ted cruz campaign which has an expertise in the ground game and a get out the vote effort has probably
suggested they've worked these hard with phone banks, mail, personal visits where possible. in order to get the same number of delegates. >> i want to make a point, karl. exactly. that the districts with the 170,000 republican voters and the districts with 13,000 republican voters each have three delegates at the convention. basically, a voter in the bronx has ten times the voting power of one upstate. >> right. >> now, just real quickly because i want to move on to the democrats and joe. what's a good night for donald trump? in other words, there are 95 delegates. is it 60 that's sort of the tipping point for him, 80? >> oh, no no. 60 would be a bad night. i think -- if he gets 85, it's a really good night for him. if it's 80 it's a good night. remember, the rules are if you get more than 50% in a congressional district you get all three districts. if you get less than 50% and somebody else gets more than 20%, then you get two and they get one. >> but let me bring in joe
trippy. you were going to say -- first, you're surprised it's a close race and what county are you looking at on democratic side? >> we'll be looking at orange county, a county that's been a swing in the past. in 2004 it went for george bush with 54% of the vote, went to obama with 52% of the vote. this year, it went 57 -- i'm really looking at it because last time around it went 57-40 for clinton. what will it do for sanders and clinton? is he closer than that? he could do better in swing areas than we thought. >> though it looks like eye sweeping victory for donald trump and a very close race on the democratic side, the cowboys over the course of the night will dig into the numbers to see how trump does in all of those congressional districts big and large and joe will try to figure out what will win on the democratic side. >> chris, thank you. >> by the way, it's buffalo, not
buffalo. we have a projection. fox news can now project that ohio governor john kasich will place second in new york's presidential primary, leaving texas senator ted cruz to finish third based on exit polls and some early vote tallies. fox has already declared donald trump the winner in new york. that's a big second place finish for the governor of ohio. >> two questions remain tonight. by what margin does donald trump win the state, and what the heck is happening on the democratic side? stand by for that. >> that does it for me. i'll be back at 11:00 p.m. eastern. >> our "kelly file" continues right after the break when brit hume joins us. next. 98,352 what's that? the number of units we'll make next month to maximize earnings. that's a projection. no, it's a fact. based on hundreds of proprietary and open data sets
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welcome back, everybody. breaking tonight, a big night for the republican front-runner donald trump as we await mr. trump's victory speech live from trump tower in new york city on 5th avenue tonight. we'll keep our eyes posted and bring you there just as soon as he begins. this is fox news projects trump has won his home state of new york. we are still meantime awaiting results on the democratic side. welcome back to "the kelly file." we just projected john kasich will come in second here in new york, ted cruz third. now, fox news was able to project a trump victory just moments after the polls closed
but the big question remains how much will he win by? and it is an important question for him. mr. trump needs a strong showing tonight as he looks to secure the nomination outright and prevent a contested convention in july. in recent weeks he has been engaged in a delegate by delegate battle with texas senator ted cruz who has largely outmaneuvered the businessman to secure delegates in the race to shore up delegate support on a hypothetical second ballot at the convention. see these delegates need to be wooed because if nobody gets to 1237 outright, then it goes to a second vote and then a lot of these delegates free up. and if they've been wooed properly, they can abandon their candidate that the voters have told them to vote for and just vote their conscience. as a result, mr. trump has significantly shaken up his campaign staff and he's brought in campaign veterans who know this delegate process inside and out. joining me now brit hume our fox news senior political san lifan.
your thoughts? >> big night for trump obviously. this does ease his path toward winning the nomination outright but it certainly doesn't guarantee it. the trump win was expected so i don't know how much effect it will have on his momentum. certainly he will claim momentum from it. a couple of noteworthy things. one is that trump seems according to the exit polls to be doing the least well in the place where he's known the best, that is to say new york city and doing much better everywhere else. you might expect that urban areas are less friendly to republicans generally and to conservatives than outlying areas. but nonetheless, that might tell us something about his ability were he the nominee to cut into the democratic party's expected margins in urban areas all over the country. obviously it would be very meaningful if he was doing really well in new york city, but apparently not. it's an expected win and a big win for him and guess what, megyn? we might have news tonight.
john kasich might get a delegate or two. that's the first time that would have happened since, when, ohio? he might even close the gap between he and marco rubio who quit after florida but is still ahead of him. >> there's a real question about whether that could matter because every delegate counts at this point. and the question is whether even if trump can't secure this thing outright by june 7th when the voting stops, whether he will be close enough and every delegate matters to, a, make the case to the american people that it would be grossly unfair to give it to somebody else or show john kasich to release his delegates and help him put over the top or make the case to unbound delegates that it's time to get on the trump train. >> one presumes megyn by the time we get to the convention if donald trump doesn't have the requisite 1237 he and his delegate hunting operation, which i guess is really just getting started now under paul
manafort who seems to have taken charge of much of the campaign, they would be working the other candidates still in the race or still holding delegates which could include marco rubio to try to get them to do what you just described, go ahead and endorse him, back him and so on. maybe that's what kasich is waiting for or may be waiting for some kind of bizarre or unheard of lightning to strike that hasn't happened in a half century or more. kasich is kind of mysterious about it when you ask him, what are you still doing here, buddy? you don't seem to be gaining ground. he still talks about how, people are going to want me because i'm doing better against hillary. >> how fun a contested convention could be. it may be true for the media, but i don't know about the republican party. >> if something happened, megyn at the republican convention this summer like what happened to the democrats in 1924, i can guarantee you it wouldn't be any fun for anybody, least of all us who had to cover it. you may recall that convention went to 103 ballots but ford
nominated a man from west virginia who ended up losing to calvin coolidge. let's hope it's not something like that. >> i've got to ask your thoughts on what's happening on the democratic side. hill clint hillary clinton was ahead by double digits leading up to today. now it's too close to call. the numbers are putting it within about four points. now, it's still 9:26. they're still counting. your thoughts on how tight that race is. >> well, if this turned out to kind of be a squeaker for her after the polling suggested otherwise for so long, i think that would be harmful to her in this sense. she's still by virtue of the sense she has a pledge delegate lead and a superdelegate lead it seems prohibitive at this stage. but what would happen if the superdelegates thought, this candidate is really weak, we've got to go in another direction? would they be willing to think about bernie sanders who is an unusual candidate to say the least, being kind of an out-and-out socialist and a manuel up in years who i think
would be -- is looked at as nowhere near a mainstream candidate. but it would certainly i would think raise doubts about secretary clinton and her staying power. >> and if they -- if we hear more about brooklyn and disenfranchised voters whose registration was purged and were forced to fill out provisional ballots which no one wants to do, new yorkers have no patience for this kind of thing, maybe they're doing it. the story is not likely to leave us if this vote wientds up tight. brit, thank you. >> megyns thank you. >> we expect to hear from donald trump in just moments we're told 9:30. a couple moment as way from that. plus, wer just mentioning the war over republican delegates which is now so fierce that both the trump campaign and the rnc can chair were in the capitol today talking to gop leaders. ben.com aniche and monica crowley are next on what happened there. don't go away. >> what reince was doing was basically walking the members
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york in the republican primary and may have a very good night picking up lots of delegates. we're waiting to see what the victory margin is. there's also new fallout regarding two competing meetings in new york today. hold on a second. it appears mr. trump is coming out. we were told it would be 9:30, and here it is heyn9:30. he'll be giving his victimry speech, the first state by which he's won more than 50%, it looks. now the question is by how many delegates. trump himself saying he would like to get about 80 tonight. karl rove suggesting 85 or more would make this a very good night for the trump campaign. and, as you heard moments ago, every single delegate now counts in this race. we could actually end this thing on june 7th with perhaps donald trump with 1237 outright, perhaps donald trump just short of that number at 50, maybe 100, maybe more. but the closer he is to that
number, the better his case is that he should go into that convention as the presumptive nominee and the better his case that on the second ballot he should be considered. i want to bring in quickly as we await mr. trump ben domenech, public lift of the federalist, monica crowley, fox news contributor. ben, what are the stakes now that donald trump has won new york? >> i think a lot of people expected donald trump to do well in his home state. i certainly expected him to do well myself. i think this night is going to be very good for him. but this sets autopsy a situation where we'll have to see how much momentum ke take out of this. you see the future of this map where you go into states like indiana, states like california where you essentially have 53 elections, and it will be very challenging for him. >> stand by. i'll get back to you as soon as he's finished. let's listen to mr. trump. >> the people of new york when they give us this kind of a vote, it's just incredible. and i guess we're close to 70% and we're going to end at a very high level and get a lot more delegates than anyone projected,
even in their wildest imagination. so i just want to thank everybody here. i want to thank my family. i want to thank -- >> usa! usa! usa! usa! >> i really want to thank my team. my team has been amazing. you know, it's actually a team of unity. it's evolving, but people don't understand that. the press understands it, they just don't want to talk about it. that's okay. just keep talking. it's very important. keep talking. but this has been an incredible evening. it's been an incredible day and week. we went all over new york state, new york state has problems like virtually every other state in the union. our jobs are being sucked out of our states. they're being taken out of our country. and we're not going to let it
happen anymore. we're going to stop it. very importantly -- and i have -- behind me, vi to say we have some of our great businessman of the world. karl icon, the great steve roth. steve is building a big building on central park south. it's a tremendous success. i said, steve, congratulation on the building. he said, donald, it's nothing compared to what's happening with you. my man, we're proud of him. but we have our great leaders. it has been really something. it has been really something amazing. and believe me, we are going to use our great businesspeople to negotiate unbelievable trade deals so we bring our jobs back and we don't let our companies go to mexico and all of these other countries anymore. we're going to keep the jobs here. you're going to be very proud of this country very soon.
we're going to build our military bigger, better, stronger than ever before. nobody is going to mess with us. that i can tell you. we're going to take care of our vets. we're going -- our vets are great people, and we have forgotten our vets. illegal immigrants are taken care of in many cases better than our vets. that's not going to happen anymore. that is not going to happen. we're getting rid of obamacare. it's going to be repealed and replaced. it is a total disaster with premiums going up 35%, 45%, 55%. it's going to probably end of his own volition. 're bringing common core. it's going to be over. and we're bringing education locally. local communities are going to take care of their educational needs and people have been wait
forge that for a long time. so, with all of the things that have happened today, tonight, and over the week, i tell you what, this has been an amazing week. all over new york state we went to syracuse, we went to albany. 20,000 people -- on average, we'd have 15,000 to 20,000 people. we went to rochester. we went to bethpage. we went all over. and you know what? the people of this country and the people of this state truly are great and amazing people. we are going to be so strong again. we are going -- really. jlegitimate legitimately. -- to be so great again. i just can't wait. we don't have much of a race anymore based on what i'm seeing on television. senator cruz is just about mathematically eliminated.
and we've won another state, as you know. we have wons millions of more votes than senator cruz, millions and millions of more votes than governor kasich. we've won and now especially after tonight close to 300 delegates more than senator cruz. we're really, really rocking. we expect we're going to have an amazing number of weeks because these are places, and they're in trouble. they're in big trouble. when you look at pennsylvania, when you look at indiana, when you look at maryland and rhode island and so many places, we have problems everywhere you look. we are going to solve those problems. and one of the big problems is the economy and jobs, and that is my wheelhouse. so, again, i want to thank everybody. it's really nice to win the delegates with the votes, you
know? it's really nice. >> trump! trump! trump! trump! >> nobody should be given delegates which is a ticket to victory, and it's not a fair ticket. and even though we're leading by a lot and we can't be caught, it's impossible to catch us, nobody should take delegates and claim victory unless they get those delegates with voters and voting. and that's what's going to happen. you watch. because the people aren't going to stand for it. it's a crooked system. it's a system that's rigged. we're going to go back to the old way. it's called, you vote and you win. wielae'll we'll be going into t convention no matter what happens and i think we're going to go in so strong and over the next number of weeks we just saw a poll come out of california which is an unbelievable poll,
but we're going to go into the convention i think as the winner. but nobody is take an election away with the way they're doing it in the republican party. and by the way, i am no fan of bernie. but i've seen bernie win win win and then i watch and they say he has no change chance ce of winn. the republican system is worse. so i want to just thank everybody. i have great, great admiration and praise for the city of new york and the state of new york. i can think of nowhere that i would rather have this victory. so we love you all. have a great evening. we celebrate. and tomorrow morning we go back to work. i'm flying tomorrow morning to indiana. i'm going to pennsylvania. i will be all over. so we're going to celebrate for about two hours. then early in the morning i get
up and we begin working again. thank you, everybody. and thank you, new york! we love new york! we love new york! thank you very much, everybody. thank you. >> donald trump speaking at trump tower. just want to bring you this update which happened during his remarks. fox news is now ready to project that hillary clinton will beat bernie sanders in new york's democratic presidential primary based on the fox news exit polls and early vote tallies. so she has pulled out a victory here tonight, bret. >> she has. and it was nip and tuck there for a little while as you looked at the exit polls but we're told by the decision desk as the raw vote totals started to come in it's starting to separate. they're confident they can make a call. we'll see what the final number is tonight, but bernie sanders can make a case that he has made it a race here in new york where she served as u.s. senator for eight years. >> the problem for the democrats
is it's not necessarily in their party's best interest for their race to go on longer. even though they have more unity than republicans do, you know, these debates have gotten vicious between bernie and hillary. he's taken the gloves off. i think it finally dawned on him that he needs to go after her if he wants to seize this nomination. so he's forcing her positioning to move in a way that might not advantage her in a general, and he's really going after her on the wall street stuff, which he's trying to hang that albatross around her neck before she gets out of this race. >> it's had an effect. however, if you look at the exit polls tonight, megyn, one thin on the democratic side is 7 in 10 said they would vote for the other candidate if they won in the democratic party. that's not the same on the republican side according to the exit polls. so unity eventually will come it seems like a little bit easier for the democrats. >> stand by because we have ed henry, our chief white house correspondent, live at clinton campaign headquarters.
ed? >> reporter: megyn, obviously a big call by fox news. i can tell you i've been at almost every one of the clinton victory parties over the many primaries and caucuses or at least primary nights. she's lost some of them. obviously this is the most raucous one. this is her adopted home state of new york. as media results have been put on tv screens, they've been cheering, chanting "i'm with her." there's a band here. much more festive than some of the other scenes i've seen. the key question as bret said, what is the margin of victory? some exit polls suggesting clinton was only leading by four points. bernie sanders even in defeat is going to spin this as beating expectations, that she just barely won. we'll see what the final numbers are. but the very bottom line for sanders is, he's fallen behind enough on delegates that if he is losing tonight, as we project, he simply is mathematically getting closer and closer to being eliminated, megyn. >> ed henry, thank you very much. back to clinton headquarters in a moment.
i also want to tell you right after the break we'll bring back monica and ben. we're going to talk about what we just heard from donald trump. very different sounding tonight. and ted cruz gave a speech earlier also very different sounding in the messaging. these two men are starting to position themselves in a totally different way than we have seen before. what does it mean? and what will it do between now and june 7th when the last votes will be cast in advance of that july convention? don't go away.
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lwith theonce driven,ew 2016. lexthere's no going back.o. we were in a german dancd group. i wore lederhosen. so i just started poking around on ancestry. then, i decided to have my dna tested through ancestry dna. it turns out i'm scottish. so, i traded in my lederhosen for a kilt. we heard from senator ted cruz earlier tonight, and we also just heard from donald trump. and the messages from each candidate sounded very different than we've heard from them in the past. if you missed senator cruz, here's a bit of him now. do we have it? >> this generation needs to answer a new set of questions. can we?
should we? will we? are we still those people? those dreamers and doers. are america's greatest generations in our past? or are our best days yet ahead? we must unite the republican party because doing so is the first step toward uniting all americans. >> unity and speaking about how america is at a point of choosing. and you heard donald trump tonight sounding, you tell me, more presidential? senator cruz, not lyon ted. back with us, ben domenech and monica crowley. monica, what do you think? i don't know if i've ever heard donald trump call ted cruz senator cruz. >> there was definitely a change in his tone and rrhetoric. this is classic donald trump.
he's in his element when he's the victor. it hit all the themes that got him to this point, megyn. he hit illegal immigration, jobs, repealing obamacare, strengthening the military. >> discipline. >> right. discipline. now he realizes that. and there is a natural maturation of both the candidates and his campaign that's going on here with this hiring a very seasoned political experienced operative that know the process, delegate hunters like paul man. be able to maneuver and manage the process should it go to a contested convention in july. he understands now that, you know, this campaign just got really real. and if he wants to win, he has got to go along with, i think a much more substantive and responsible tone because now he understands -- he is not
just speaking for. >> we have seen fewer interviews and fewer tweets from him. more disciplined. i want to ask you, ben, whether all of that will be enough to get him to 1237 by june 7th because, you know, some of these analysts are saying you need a running start in these states. >> that's the real problem for him because he is so far behind the eight ball. you talk about adding these people paul paul manafort and others. he thought he was going to be able to rack up victories as he was doing a month ago. instead he has had this past month where he has been struggling delegate fight. didn't matter. one of the reasons why last week. maybe a little bit shall we say charitable inaccurate. something i would just think i would call a lie. the fact of the matter is --
the fact of the matter is as donald trump knows the way for him to become the nominee of the republican party is simple. he has to win 1237. if he doesn't, that dramatically increases the eickly hood that ted cruz would prevail. >> that is real what he said. ted cruz's odds of achieving 1237 before it gets to the convention is slim and none. >> sure. big difference between that and being mathematically eliminated from being the nominee of the republican party. what ted cruz is fighting for and slogging for in that speech in pennsylvania. >> that was another message we heard, mondayca. and donald trump saying nobody should claim delegates unless they got those delegates through voting. that you shouldn't be able to claim delegates unless you got them through voting because right now the system is set up such that you can get delegates even if it wasn't through voting. >> that's right. this has been the process for the republican party for many, many years, megyn. this isn't something new that was just sprung this year on donald trump. this has been his theme.
his theme all along has been the american people you are victims. you are victims of illegal immigration. victims of a bad economy. you ever victims of poor leadership in the republican party and the democratic party. you are victims of bad trade deals. and that was very powerful to him. whether there is validity to his argument or not, it resonating now i am one of you. i'm being victimized by this process. that's resonating with a lot of people. you saw it repeated again tonight. i believe he is going to carry this forward. i also think he is understanding. he is not just going to be the spokesman for the republican party. as he goes forward and as he continues to win. is he got to get serious about speaking for the country. that's why you are seeing change in tone. >> also trump corey lewandowski was demoted and paul manafort stepping in. this is a team of unity but it is evolving.
thank you both so much. >> thank you, megyn. let's now take a look at the states ahead with larry sabato. larry, if trump pulls out 8 a delegates possibly in new york tonight, how does it make his path look realistically, what are the odds of getting to 1237 up by june 7th? >> this was expected, megyn, i don't think it changes the outlook and the outlook is still murky. that is donald trump is by no means assured of 1237. and it's going to come down, i think, to two big states that really matter, indiana in early may and then california on june 7th. and we can talk about the particulars, if you want, but, you know, every time there is a big victory, whether it's for ted cruz in wisconsin or for donald trump tonight in new york, the candidate says we've got big move. we have got the big momentum. really, it's not big move and not little no either. every state matters and
every delegate matters. >> it's like slo-mo. sorry. tight segment tonight. stu stephens here as well. i want to get your thoughts on what we are seeing tonight. >> big night for donald trump because, if he hadn't won, it would be a bad night for donald trump. but, larry is exactly right. this is about getting to 1237. i think that it would be a better shot for those who don't want donald trump, if john kasich would not compete in california, if john kasich would not compete in indiana. if he would let cruz take those delegates. this is all about not getting to 1237 for donald trump. but, you know, trump is benefiting from that -- both of them staying in like that. but, listen, i think the big winner tonight is hillary clinton. because hillary clinton. >> i have got it leave it at that. >> crushes donald trump in the general. >> she has won her home state tonight and bernie sanders is feeling that we'll be right back.
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so sean hantd is up next. 11:00 bret and i return for a special hour of coverage. hope you join us then. tell me what you think of tonight's results being announced. ♪ and welcome to hannity. and tonight we are broadcasting live from trump tower in new york city. it was a big night for donald trump in the empire state. fox news is now projecting that trump will win the new york g.o.p. primary. ohio governor john kasich is coming in second place. senator ted cruz, he will come in third. and joining us now, by the way, on the democratic side though first fox news is projecting hillary clinton will win the new york democratic primary beating socialist bernie sanders. joining us now are some of the donald trump's children. donald trump jr. eric trump, and tiffany trump, guys good to see you. >> good to be with you, sean. >> first time i have net you. >> i know. goo