tv Perino Stirewalt Ill Tell You What FOX News September 25, 2016 2:00pm-3:01pm PDT
waste of time. you're going to lose everything. but that's your call. we'll see you tomorrow. ♪ welcome to hofstra university in long island where in just over 24 hourds, quite possibly the most anticipated political event in recent history will be taking place. this is perino & stirewalt. i'm dana perino. >> and i'm chris stirewalt. >> we're going to take you in to examine where things stand in the polls and in the debate. >> is this awesome? this is awesome. >> the second week we're taking the show on the road.
>> when we did a podcast and we thought nobody was listening, they would not have let us take it on the road. >> i have a question for you. this is a big night. there is a lot of excitement here. it's a beautiful day in long island, and i want to know, with this anticipatory moment, the night before the first presidential debate of 2016, would be like the equivalent of what in west virginia? >> west virginia is one of the 50 states in the union. we do normal things there, too. we're not just -- >> i know, but it's a special place, so i wondered if you had a little hillbilly thing you wanted to share. >> you're not allowed to say that. only i am. the thing i was thinking about earlier that i mentioned to you was the first night before buck season. for people from the city, those are deer. they have antlers. >> of the male variety. >> of the male variety. and the night before, school is
off the next day. there is no school the next day. >> for real? >> for real. >> you don't have to go to school on the first day of -- >> first day of gun buck season in november, there is no school that day. another good reason to be in west virginia. but you know there is going to be bloodshed, you know somebody is going to come home happy, some people will come home unhappy. but there is a great anticipation in the air and that energy is real here. >> it could be true. some people -- there will be bloodshed. >> there will be blood. >> they both have a lot at stake. >> we've been talking about and everybody has been talking about this endless expectations game. who is going to do this, who is going to do that. when you get down to it, these are gladiators. she's been in public life in politics since the 1960s. he has been a television star and a public figure, really, since the 1980s.
these are both combative. >> but he has dabbled in politics. >> 2000, he flirted with running on the ticket. but these are two people that no matter what the handlers, the polls, the campaign managers say, when they get out in that space, the raw emotion and competitive drive will take over in these two people no matter what anybody told them. >> he is the king of -- remember, slim jim -- is the example of a perfect polling average, and we have new averages, actually, we can take a look at. pull that on up, because -- >> there we see it, the half time report. i know you're already a subscriber of half time report because it's so delicious. the half time report shows hillary clinton at 47.4%, donald trump at 43.8%.
that's the state of the race if you come here. which is, she's ahead but not by a bunch and still that a big performance of or a bad performance of one or the other, these people could swing this race in a substantial way. >>, but it's rare that you could win a general plekz paced on a debate but that you could lose a general election based on a did he bait domination of eastern europe and -- i feel bad, though, i read and ford deserves
the pat in history. >> when we write the preds preservation of history, we'll look at that. >> you want your children to read that. >> i agree with your premise who wholeheartedly, if you have a great performance, that can evaporate. but what you can do is screw up so much that it stayed. and admiral james stockdale, bless his heart, prisoner of war hero who ross perot made his running mate, that was it. it hurt perot substantially. you can have those blowout moments. but if you're so cautious that you're worried you'll do that, you might just go up there and lay a big egg. >> low energy is good. but if you remember in the vice
presidential debate that between paul ryan and joe biden, joe biden couldn't wait to get in and take a huge bite out of paul ryan's backside, and paul ryan was way down here. it's too soon to see. clinton is -- i don't want to be pejorative, i don't want to say she's low energy herself, but compared to trump she's a much more stayed presence. >> i want to ask you about the non-verbals. we're going to talk about how they should position themselves, what they should say. but one of these is not a non-verbal. . governor george w. bush and vice president al gore, this is when i'm told the bush team really
locked up that who would you like to have a beer with moment, and it was nonverbal. take a look. >> it's not only your position on issues, but can you get things done? and i believe i can. >> that is just the best. i have a little bit of insight about that because i wasn't there and i was on the team at the time, but i talked to some people that were there. i said, surely you couldn't script that moment. they said, no, but you can prepare for it. so in the debate they had watched all these tapes of al gore and how he conducted himself, and he liked to get into somebody's personal space to intimidate them. so george w. bush knew that might be coming and then he decided to handle it that way. >> and the nonverbal, and certainly we know about rick de blasio when he tried to get hillary clinton to sign a pledge -- >> and she sort of shrank back. >> whether she was shrinking
back or not, she wanted to show offense. if you don't know, and i think this is true for barack obama -- can a guy who is a half-term senator, it's sort of like put him there and does it look credible? the racing non-engineer city, or they say, that seems reasonable to me, mr. president. >> amy walter who i undecided torments about this choice, because her point is. we have some of the most popular
candidates in our history. >> look. i think they obviously agree with dana. >> i love the millennials. >> you're huge with them. . you get out there and grip it and rip it. you have to stand by the iron ball and just swing away. >> it's also not the end of the world. which is come back. i'm just so excited about to do this share. >> how could it be better? >> if you really love politics, we have the best panel in the business. that's coming up. and we're also going to ask them for their debate, honeysugar.
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welcome back to "i'll tell you what" live here in long island. we have great panelists sitting right here, but first as the candidates get their last-minute pr prep, we'll talk to them. jennifer? >> reporter: we just caught up with john pedesta, the chairman for the clinton campaign. we tracked hillary clinton and her team to the doral arrowwood hotel in new york. it's a 17-minute drive from her home in chappaqua.
she left her house about noon today. she's been conducting mock debates with her most combative staff member standing in for donald trump. like her opponent, clinton will meet with benjamin netanyahu in manhattan in union square about an hour from now. her campaign said they don't want clinton to be graded on a curve tomorrow night. the campaign sees this as one of the most important moments in the campaign, but recent polls show that 83% of registered voters plan to tune in tomorrow night to the debate, but only 8% of those registered voters consider themselves undecided. dana? >> jennifer. let's bring in cameron who is with trump.
>> reporter: the trump representative came here yesterday to start preparing. trump has been doing intensive preparation, though not with hillary clinton with the mock debate sparring partner. there has been a steady stream of people including chris christie, rudy giuliani, mike flynn and others all talking politics with him, exchanging ideas, ways in which to answer questions quickly in terms of his own policy aspirations and turned to a criticism of the current state of affairs and ultimately a criticism of hillary clinton. in the last couple days, the pre-game battling has been pretty extraordinary. the clinton campaign let it be known last week that they had invited mark cuban, the billionaire. reality started in his own right to be in the front row in order to start getting to know them. trump tweeted he was going to bring gennifer flowers.
flowers said back in the 1982 clinton campaign that she had a relationship with bill clinton to which he admitted it happened, too. there will be no gennifer flowers. and they put pressure on the clinton campaign to make sure cuban wouldn't be in the front. chris, dana? >> thank you so much to carl and to jennifer. we appreciate all the work you're doing and for joining us tonight. we're going to move on here because we couldn't have a better panel with us. to break it down and figure out where all things stand, we have senior writer and political analyst and mo mrk elissy.
>> does trump or clinton have the most to lose tomorrow night? >> both of them. if you're donald trump, you have the most to gain if you can prove that you deserve to be on that stage. you have the most to lose if you prove you don't belong on that stage, right? i mean, it is tough for him, and i think if i were the clinton campaign, i would be a little worried that the expectations game is a little out of whack. there are too many people who say they don't p want it to be whim. expectations for hillary clinton are very high. the expectations for clinton should be a little higher, is that right? >> if you look at the polls, most believe hillary clinton is a favorite heading into this debate. we also know at this point in time, hillary clinton has a
small lead in the polls. finally we know historically the par party. you can get a true percentage point bump which is what we say. this is the part where you just ruminate. for the best pontification, i think it's kind of genius because he's like an evil genius but he is the most vicious with reporters. >> i think he's probably having a blast. >> and probably getting some y payback by his boss. should she have gone for somebody that didn't work for
her? >> i think it is a good choice, for reasons he mentioned. hillary is preparing for all the different trumps that could potentially be on stage, right? the aggressive trump that might come after her, the lazy trump who is just trying to prove that he's there. >> the other thing is, i really think having worked for somebody that closely that he can say things to hillary clinton that he knows she will know that he doesn't know that. they will try to press every button that she's going to look angry or somehow appear that she's not presidential because she's got this voice that you're not going to want to hear in your head for the next four years. >> exactly right. >> i wonder this. when we talk about how -- who is in whose head, right, so part of the game, harry, when you do
this stuff is who is in the other person's head the most? it seems like trump is in her head. if trump has her preparing for four different kinds of trumps, it's like you already won that psych-out battle. is that right? >> maybe, but i don't really know. hillary clinton, unlike donald trump, doesn't say everything she thinks on twitter, so it's difficult to know exactly what's going on with her. but i go back to the first debate flight marry seasod debate in the primary season. then i go back to the one in the 2008 debate season. i wouldn't be surprised. i know the bar is set higher for her but she tends to meet those bars in the past. >> i wouldn't be surprised if she rings that bell. i think anything could happen tomorrow night, but she could actually meet the expectations. >> she could, right? that's almost a dangerous expectation in and of itself,
right? but look, you know, i kind of think they are already in his head at the same time. they put out there that they're bringing mark cuban. the guy takes to twitter. i don't think that made him look particularly good. go back to her convention speech when she said this is a man who can be baited by a tweet. and what happens? he took the bait and tweeted out. i think if i'm on the trump campaign, one of the things i want to try to do is try to reel that instinct in just a hair, right? they want to get him poking at her, but at the same time he cannot lash out, he cannot react. i think you're going to see a little bit of that kabuki dance from both of them tomorrow. >> we have a lot more coming up, including this soon-to-be news twist. we'll see how much our panelists have been paying attention this week. it's not something you can study
grandma, want to play? maybe later sweetie. talk to your doctor or pharmacist about your risk. is it a professor who never stops being a student? is it a caregiver determined to take care of her own? or is it a lifetime of work that blazes the path to your passions? your personal success takes a financial partner who values it as much as you do. learn more at tiaa.org tobut, alas, poor sarah's home myagain with tooth pain. hamlet. she's missing out on the rich classroom discussion and catching up on social media instead. #notcool. #remedialreading. #ohlooktheregoesyourgpa.
surprisingly, kids with poor oral health are three times more likely to miss school. crest. don't let them miss out. final preparations under way for the first presidential debate tomorrow night. hillary clinton and donald trump facing off at hofstra university in new york. both presidential nominees taking time off the campaign trail today to do some last-minute homework. it's estimated at least 100 million people will tune in for sho the showdown. miami is in mourning for the boating accident death of jose fernando. their 32-foot vessel ran full
speed into a jetty at 3:15 this morning. they believe speed was a factor. no evidence of alcohol or drugs involved in that crash. he was 24 years old. now back to perino & st stirewa stirewalt. >> one thing you cannot prepare for is breaking news. >> both campaigns have been courting national voters, and protests in north carolina turned violent and even deadly. >> the candidates did address this this week. >> we have two more names to add to a list of african-americans killed by police officers in these encounters. it's unbearable. and it needs to become intolerable. i've spoken to many police chiefs and other law enforcement
leaders who are as deeply concerned as i am and deeply committed as i am to reform. why? because they know it is essential for the safety of our community and our officers. >> the violence against our citizens and our law enforcement must be brought to a very rapid end. the people who will suffer the most as a result of these riots are law-abiding african-american residents who live in these communities where the crime is so rampant. >> take it around this way, mo. what did you think of both of those candidates' reactions. >> they both came out a little bit measured. not surprising for hillary, barely surprising for trump that he came out so measured. i think the next couple days, the next wave of reaction will be where you start to see more of a divide, right? he goes on tv and basically
calls for nationwide stop and frisk, and then he had to clarify that and say, no, only in some cities, or only in chicago. that alone may have pulled the rug out from several weeks of outreach to the african-americans. >> you think so? >> i think so. that is such a polarizing issue and kind of seen as a litmus test in a lot of african-american communities that he may have done himself a lot of harm with that one. >> okay. >> we look at -- i think we have a poll from north carolina here. do we have a poll from north carolina? because i would sure like to see it. so fox news north carolina presidential vote pr trump 45%, clinton 40%, so trump is doing better in north carolina. north carolina as a microcosm as a pretty good state. it's been close for two terms. as we break it down, white votes and black votes in north carolina in the fox state poll
and we see an incredible disparity here. we see 85% of the black votes for hillary clinton, 3% for donald trump. isn't the outreach in the black community really about white voters? >> it's about keeping hillary clinton down in the white vote. it's not that donald trump is doing particularly bad with black voters. hillary clinton is where barack obama was four years ago and eight years ago. if he can keep those numbers down, hillary clinton would still win african-american voters by 80%.
>> there is one white democrat, if i remember correctly, she is actually outperforming him and that's white college-educated women. >> which no republican candidate for president has ever lost and she's actually leading. she's leading with them and she's leading with white college voters overall. >> we'll take a quick break. you need to go to foxnews.com/pspodcast. you can also sign up for the fox half time report. it's free so you'll love every penny. think your heartburn pill works fast? take the zantac it challenge! zantac works in as little as 30 minutes. nexium can take 24 hours. when heartburn strikes, take zantac for faster relief than nexium or your money back. take the zantac it challenge.
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on the panel we have a couple da data nerds. what's the range like. first we set the stage. last week our fox halftime report pulling an average. hillary clinton is up 47%. and then what's our new number? she's up 3.6 points. they both went down in an average of polls in a slim jim, but she went down less. so that's the state of the race right now. let's go back to 2012. here's the free debate poll of 2012 when willard and mitt romney faced off with barack obama. he's down 5% in the fox news poll. not where you want to be, but then he had a debate. and if you remember, he had a good debate. what did we end up with? after the october 3rd debate, romney goes up, obama goes down and romney takes a 1-point lead
in the fox news poll. pretty good. that was a substantial swing. let's go further back to 2008 when we had -- you remember that guy, john mccain. he ran for president. so did barack obama. going into the first presidential debate, it was down. in a gallop poll on the 24th and the 26th, they had the debates. what happened? after the presidential debate, nothing happened. well, he went a little further down. and the reason why, dana perino -- >> i don't remember why. >> the reason why, it didn't matter because the economy was on fire and it was -- the economy was like an el camino on fire full of manure smashing through the front window. >> i was going to throw a hissy fit to see if those two months could be erased from my memory. >> nothing happened as a result of that because nothing could save john mccain at that point anymore. >> wasn't that the time that
john mccain said he didn't know much about economics. >> i don't know about economics, but it will probably be fine. we study 1980 a lot. there was only one debate between jimmy carter and ronald reagan. it was a pretty big deal, et cetera, et cetera, and reagan was behind. we've all heard the story. you have heard this story wrongly that he won deathe deba. hoo here's what you didn't know. the league of women voters invited jimmy carter and ronald reagan to a debate. jimmy carter wouldn't do it. jimmy carter lost substantial ground for not participating in a debate, and that september debate that jimmy carter rejected -- i'm too busy, hostages and i've got too much stuff going on. he passed on the debate, didn't appear on stage and got his behind whooped for not even being there. >> you have to show up. >> the first rule, i think our panel would agree with us here,
you must first attend the debate. and then here, of course, in the end carter does eventually show up. that's not jimmy carter, that's a guy with a pretty sweet necktie. but jimmy carter did eventually show up and the one he showed up with he lost, too. >> he probably wanted to erase that time from his memory, too. >> he's going to go to dana's therapist. >> i haven't found one yet, but if you know of one, i'll get his number. >> the takeaway for this for me is this year looks a lot more like 2012 than it does 2008. 2008 the cake was pretty big at this point. there wasn't much slack in the line. this time it seems like there is a lot more slack in the line, so there is more at stake. >> yeah, i think so. in part that's because the people really don't like the choices they're facing. they really don't. even though 90% of clinton voters say they're locked in, 90% of trump voters say they're
locked in. this race has been more than what we expected, in part because nobody likes either of these candidates. they just don't like them and they really don't want to make this choice. that's why i think there is a lot at stake tomorrow night, trump, going back to the first question you asked, i think trump has a risk of a high reward. i think hillary is a much more experienced debater and she'll have to show her confidence and she'll be fine. >> you go back to 1980 and you talk about carter sitting out that first debate. this year we have gary johnson and jill stein not taking part in the debate because they haven't reached 50% in the polls. it could merely be that clinton wins this debate by johns johnson-stein going down in the
polls. >> should they be on the stage? >> no. neither of them is going to win. you know, i have tremendous respect for them just putting their hands in the ring. specifically if you're not one of the two major parties. but at a certain point, the reality sets in. they're not going to get the electoral number, so let's get the candidates who actually have a shot at winning on the stage. >> we heard it was going to congress, and we would never know, it's going to be totally dramatic, and in the end it's going to be revealed, right? >> that's a why not. >> that's what i'm going for. we've got much more, and i tell you what, "i'll tell you what" continues, but as we enter this short break, you better sharpen up your pencils, boys, because the perino & stirewalt news quiz is coming up next.
it's a moment we've been waiting for all week. >> it is the "i'll tell you what" news quiz, and our first question goes to tom bevins. the pew research center is just out with its much anticipated new report on illegal immigration in america. only six states saw an increase in the number of illegal immigrants since 2009. which of the following state are not on the list? massachusetts, pennsylvania, arizona, or washington. >> is not on the list? >> is not on that list. >> that's a tough one. i will say arizona. >> you got it! >> he's a good guesser. >> that's what the study says was the largest increase in illegal immigration, those states have now seen a decrease,
and the increase is in northern states like new jersey, pennsylvania, et cetera. >> as ted cruz endorsed donald trump, the texas senator offered several rationales for backing a man he had previously called utterly amoral and a path logical liar. one was trump's support for cruz's legislation seeking to block the sending handover of u.s. control of the organization that regulates internet domains. what is the name of that organization? >> the internet corporation for assigned names and numbers. international domain director e directorate, california internet consortium, berkeley uniform network node zone. >> i'm going to go with a. >> yay! i'm the worst. you never want to play a board
game with me because i will help everyone. >> i wanted him to say buns. that's why we wrote it that way. >> and our next question is the african-american history cultural museum opens. there is something owned by james brown. what was the name of brown's original band? was it "the godfather's" mafia, the famous flames, the soul survivors, and brown's hornets. >> i can tell you neil sedaka was part of the token. what were those names again? >> james brown's original names.
>> i have no idea. >> the famous flames. james brown and the famous flames and they were awesome. >> thank you for giving him the easy -- i wouldn't have gotten his but i would have helped him with that one. total nerd. i definitely would have gotten yours. i didn't know arizona. i could have by deductive reasoning come there. >> or cheating. >> i don't know if you've ever watched "the five." i'm the queen of corney jokes. every four years the press is so hungry that they beg the campaigns for any morsel of information they can get like what the pre-debate meal will be. in 2012 the obamas dined on steak and romney dined on a v
veggie burger. paul ryan had fish. and grilled cheese. biden didn't always have that. he liked to have lasagna and things like that. >> like it's a last meal. prisoner's last meal. >> it kind of drives me crazy that they do this. i'm going to ask you. if you were debating tomorrow night or if you want to give recommendations to trump or clinton, what might you have as your final meal before the debate? >> i think joe biden is a fantastic debater, i really do. what that guy is eating. >> grilled chicken go give me a big bowl of pasta and i'm ready to go. >> i'm going pasta. fresh penne, fresh motzerella,
diet rootbeer. >> i am ready. >> i am a diet barq's person. >> i just had shake shack. trump likes fast food. >> i don't know if hillary will go for that. >> this is terrible. it's a bad choice. >> no. bratwursts and kraut. seasonal. >> you shouldn't have that before a debate. you might have a problem. >> you're not going to have a problem. i eat that for breakfast some days. >> i would definitely do steak and maybe a little bit try and have some carbs. i would so want a glass of red wine but i would not do it. >> she would not do it. >> chris, you would have a big stein of beer. >> he would.
>> another thing we do on this podcast is we ask viewers as we head into this break, where do you find america? this week my favorite moment was with 43 with george bush asked president obama to take a photo of the former president of the united states. he was trying to take a selfie with a woman. he couldn't figure it out. he tapped obama on the back and said, would you mind doing this? i love that. i love what it says to the world. when we return to the world it's time to see if i can answer two trivia questions. we'll be right back. ...clear for take off. see ya! when you're living with diabetes. steady is exciting. oh this is living baby! only glucerna has carbsteady, to help minimize blood sugar spikes. and try new glucerna hunger smart to help you feel full.
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welcome back. trivia for chris stirewalt. >> i'm a little freaked out because i'm afraid you'll show car keys. you saw on the podcast nobody was listening. >> i'm ready. >> first question. though ross perot won 19% of the vote in 1992, he did not win a single state. who was the last third party presidential candidate to win a state? >> who was the last third party presidential candidate to win a state was george wallace? >> it was george wallace. you always do this. he's pretty good. that was 1968. second question. what states did he win?
>> massachusetts and new york. no, he won i'm going to say alabama. >> yeah. >> mississippi. >> yeah. >> georgia? >> yes. >> south carolina. >> no. >> no? not tennessee. not -- >> farther south. >> further south than alabama. >> than tennessee. >> i already said -- oh, how about mississippi. i said mississippi. louisiana? >> yes. >> and my last one that starts with a. >> i was going to say arkansas. >> i helped you out a little bit. >> the interesting thing about wallace is, we talk about this, voters who aren't sure where they're going to go. they don't have a home. wallace was a huge part of the story. he's a democrat who left to become a dixiecrat. it was the transition of the south from the democratic party to republican party. somebody like strom thurmond didn't change their view other
than on segregation, he didn't change his points of view. the parties changed around them. >> we're seeing that. >> i think we're seeing a realignment as the republican party moves left, takes a harder line on the other issues. the democratic party is the party of free trade and the republican party is the party of tariffs. >> we have one minute. why do you think johnson is dropping in the polls? >> there will be hard core support. there are a lot of libertarians. we do our clock on wednesdays. we want to thank our panel. thank you so much. we'll see you next week. >> bye. >> don't forget to watch tomorrow night.
27 hours from now the first presidential debate of 2016. the candidates are prepping. the stage is set for what could be the most watched debate ever. this is "special report." good evening. welcome to the campus of hofstra university on long island. site of the first presidential debate. i'm bret baier. hofstra is about to become the only university to host a presidential debate in three consecutive presidential cycles. tens of millions of people are expected to watch hillary clinton versus donald trump. fo