tv Nightly Business Report PBS March 30, 2018 5:00pm-5:31pm PDT
>> announcer: this is "nightly business report," with bill griffith and sue herera. gd evening, everyone, and welcome to this special edition of "nightly business report." tonight we are goi look at a number of issues important to your money, including the stock market,wohe future of th force, and your retirement. >> we begin with stocks. the incredible quarter that we saw for wall street, january of course was defined by a stock market surge. but that enthusiasm faded in february. and gave way to the return of volatility in march. so, on this last day of the first quarter, it's already there, what can investors expect in the second quarter? seema mody takes a look for us tonight. >> reporter: the first quarter of 2018 has been active to say
the least for investors. triple digit swegs, volat moves and changes in policies that have economic in the second quarter expect wall street to stay focused on washington. on the topic of trade investors will be keen to figure out whether u.s. relations with china, a large trading partner, will strengthen or weaken. heightened rhetoric on trade protection is expected to co einue,alating worries of a trade war. when it pertains to taxes,om econts will be keeping a close eye o the data to see whether a reduction in the tax rate is starting to have a positive effect on consumers. if we don't see an up tick in spending or consumer confidence, that could push wall street analysts to bring down their growth expectations. currently, analysts are ticipating the united states to grow 2.5 to 3% in 2018. with growth in focus the market a anticipatinther 25 basis point rate hike from the federal reserven the second quarter. while rising rates are not
always good for stocks, traders say equities can continue to power throw ifng ear growth improves. if profits up side the bulls may find it hard to stay in control. soanalysts at tho reuters are expecting earnings growth to strengthen in the second quarter led by technology and financials. perhaps most important to stocks is the direction of the u.s. dollar, whichontinues to weaken in the face of economic data and protectionist moves out of washington. if the dollar reverses and creeps higher, that would present ad head w for multinationals like apple, mcdonald's, and nike, tt dead on growth overseas. for "nightly business report," seema mody. >> let's t to our guests for their second quarter anoutloo the market and the economy. jack ablan. nnand beth bozino. welcome to you both. >> great to be here.
>> thanks, sue. >> jack, let me start with you. overall, wha are you pecting? and you say that basically, we are seeing some will be i had withity which is positive butit already a little bit of pressure. how does that translate to your overalloo ou >> yeah, so right now we haven't taken the opportunity with this volatility to sell or buyor that matter. we are pretty much holding the positions that we have.we re pretty well fully invested going into this year and hh.ding thro but there are some concerns. there are some things we are watching. one, as you mention, i credit conditions. that's sort of what we'll call the circulatory system of our financial system. and we look at the availability of credit. and over the last couple weeks we have started to see incrementally lenders starting to tighten up a little bit. >> beth ann, we saw technology which has traditionally been a leadership group in this market falter during the quarter.
you see that continuing into the second quarter? if so, who becomes the new leader. >> i think there are a of the hoff factors going on with what happened with the technology stumble, you could say. a lot of them were company specific. also, you coulday that the tariffs tied to china, the response to the u.s. and back and forth also caused somerr s. i think overall when we look at what is happening with the u.s. economy we see t it spendin going to pick up, we think that equipment spending will pick up as well. that should be a boost for technology companies going forward. >> jack, take me through how this whole situation going to develop for the economy. you said you are fully stin but you are looking at some of the liquidity issues. as beth ann pointed out the economy is firing on all cylinders and the global economy is really strong. >> when you look at the five
factors wet look in valuating the market. fvaluation is prettr right now. we started rather expensive. i think the combination othe pullback plus improvements in earnings outlooks have actually brought that back within, you know, five to six, seven percent. -- five or six percent over valuation to me is con neutral. as you mentioned, the economic backdrop. positive here at home. positive even more so abroad. i think that's a great environmental factor. liquidity as i mentioned, still easy, but i'm getting a little bit worried. here is a case -- this is an early warning indicator. if you go back to the downdraft 2008, the financial crisis, liquidity dried up in the fourth quarter of 2007. it is a good early warni indicator that lenders are pulling back and the t availabili take risk is minimized or i should say, you know, reduced.
and then psychology. i would say it is a mixed bag. investors now somewhat -- going into the year were overwhelmingly bullish with high expect aches. with the volatility we have perienced they have pulled that back. and lastly momentum. we bounced off the 200 day moving average twice. we still have positive momentum. dbut if we get a breakdown and perhaps that's paired with a pullback in liquidity of the that would drive us to at least pull some of our risk off the table. >> beth ann you expect the fed to raise rates what three more times this year. would that be a head wind for those sensitive sectors or is this an indication that the economy is? going to get bett >> i think it is a confirmation that the economy is going to get better. he fundamentals are looking very good. businesses are hiring. we saw nice readtigs. we ce to expect for the year 200,000 job gains for the year or thereabouts. we think the unemployment rate is going the stay low or tick lower than that.
we think gives good reason for th to start to raise rates. they seem to indicate they areg g to do it gradually. yeah maybe a little bit faster than what m bkets hoped i think they are going to take their time. the point is they want to do i now because if they wait too long they have to move fast andg that'sng to spook the market and the economy. >> on that note thank you both. jack and bethann. bill? >> certainly a key part of the economy is housing. inste of moving. which improvements give you the biggest bang for your buck? diana olick hashe answer for us. >> reporter: emma has a vision for her family of four. it's getting there. she and her husband are enlarging the kitchen, adding a familyroom, and an upstairs master suite. more space was poier mounted, even if the costoutweighs the return. >> it was a balance because we
always had theossibility of resale in our mind. but we think we are going to be here for a while. mostly we were focusing on the things that would just make our life here with our family better or more comfortable. >> reporter: homeowners are staying in h theires longer today than in the past, upgrading and remodelling more, and some projects nearly pay for themselves. garage door replacement will of you 98 rz approximate your investment back according to remodelling magazine's annual cost versus value report. it asks real estate agents how much a renovation would add to the sale price of a home selling in the same year. manufactured stone veneer came in second. and a steel front door ranked third. other high returns, a deck addition and mor kitchen remodel. >> things like kitchens, bathrooms, you are probagoy g to get 60 or 70 cents on the dollar for those types of investments. things that are more decorative, generally speaking you are going to get a little bit less on those. >> reporter: doing a simple remodel or wupgradel give you
a better return than an addition or something fancier. that's a change from last year.? because the cost of labor and materials are skyrocketing and that shifts the equation. of course value can be ve depending how long you plan to stay. >> if you are going to live in a police for tenea or 15 and raise a family you are going to get that money back plus the intrinsic value of living there and enjoying the additional space. >> reporter: as with everything real estate location matters. if a prices rising fast in your market, returns on investment will be gher. remember, your dream kitchen may not be someone else's. for "nightly business report," diana olick in washington. still ahead the labor market is strengthening and the workplace as we know it is changing.
the manufacturing industry is experiencing a solid turnaround. but at tight labor mars making it difficult for companies to find more skilled it's a problem that one manufacturer in indiana is trying to solve. kate rogers reports on where the jobs are. >> reporter: since the election, manufacturers have added jobs, encouraged by deregulation and corporate tax cuts as well as stronger global growth and a weakerardoll but this job growth is facing one major head wind, shortage of skilled workers. ins particularly evident indiana where reliance in manufacturing is outsized relative to other states with 20% of employees working in the industry. >> we had a record number of job announcementsn the last 1 months but it creates issues in trying to get people to come to
here. is work >> reporter: on top of that a population issue. the manufacturers assoc ttion floate idea offet contracting financial incentives to lure torkers tohe hoosier state to fill vacancies. >> we need people to move to our state. it is estimated our work force population is going to grow by 1% between now and 2040 and the nationalverage is going to be 18%. >> reporter: this steel maker knows all too well. the company employs 18,000 workers here in the u.s. and is lookin to add an additional 1,000 employees in20 . attracting talent in a tight labor market can be challenging which is why the company created its steel worker of the futur program. >> it is with high school graduates. we assist them with their college education and also provide for them the opportunity fortunate iands on trainin our factories. >> reporter: they hired 90 formerarticipants and has 144 students enrolled currently. dan terrell is a graduate. >> my senior year in high
school, everyone was talking about big name colleges and universities getting there fors four ye here it's lessf than h the time, training, craft, and i i knad to go for it. >> reporter: they are recruiting heavily and helping to urveer in the next neration of talent like brooks. >> this is the number one job out there. >> reporter: for "nightly buness report," i am kat rogers in burns harbor, indiana. in an era marked by rapid changes in technologies like automation, robotics, artificial intelligen, how will it shape how we work, where we work and the skills we will need inhe future? joining us to look at the future of work david mendel, he is a professor engineering and manufacturing at mit. mark hamrick is with bank rate.com. mark, i want toet technology aside and look at demographics.
i know you are intereste in that. since the financial crisis older workers have found themselves out of a job replace by younger cheaper workers. but we have a tight labor market right now. does that help the older worker in the future? ,hat do you think? >> we i think you know we have greater longevity in this country. that's the good news and the bad ne leaving aside the question of whether their prospectives retiremere well funded those older workers are going to be a great potential resource for enterprise inside the future. there will be competition between younger entrants in the work force and the older workers. of course we know that the by boomers as they are currently retiring are being replaced by less expensive workers. that feeds into a whole other set of dynamics. >> it certainly does. david, there is also the thought out here -- i don't know how many times i have heard this -- that the workers of today and the workers of tomorrow will eventually bey replaced robots or some other sort of machine-type technology that can he job. but you make the point that we
might not be replaced, b we might -- the work experience might kind of be augustmented by these machines and by these robots. >> i think that's correct. there have been fears for a long time, i mean centuries that people have been replaced by in certain tasks they are. in the economy overall, automation or mechanization or rob botticiewtion creates tasks and people are flexible and able to take on those tesk tasks. increasingly we are understanding how to use ai and eachine learning and artificial intelligence to m robots more collaborative and better able to work alongsidethpeople. 's a huge new frontier. >> david, jeff bezos loves art officials intelligence. he employs it with his ech device. but elon musk fears artificial intelligence where do you stand? >> i think, you know, artificial intelligence is displaying a lot of promise. it's still heavily dependent on
data. it'sen dnt on human labor to tune it and fine-tune it for particular purposes. tasks ry good at focused that we understand pretty well. it's not there yet where it's abo do something entirely new and explain to you why it did it. >> mark, can i turn to you on the whole focus and it dove tails what bill was just talking about, the divide abo or not artificial intelligence and robotics are goingo be net/net good or bad. but the one thing people seem to really focus on is the need for further education o many different levels so you can deal with ai, deal with rsoots and eal with the hands-on manufacturing that has to be done. >> yeah. th's clearly a challenge and an opportunity. these emerging technologies i think we sometimes don'tff iently appreciate the disruptive nature of them. while we might say that on lalance technologi
advancement is good thing in the tremendouit causes disruption which presents itself into the political process. i dare sayt's one of the biggest wild cards of the future. where do societies and countries end up dealing with policy to help the people who are displaced. in the earli package one of the answers is not requiring everyone t attend four year colleges or uniamrsities for e. >> before we let you go, mark, i'll start with yo p if you had k an industry, you are telling a college graduate this is where the growth isn the future where would you tell them to go. >> health care will account for one third of the service sector abs that we see in the future. back to theng population. there will be technological improvements to supplant but you will nee human power. both the low skill and and the health ll aspects of care. those jobs will be needed.
>> revid. >> any where you need people to have an interface with technology. in health care, lots of other systems. we are always going to need people toelp interface between machines and other people.th >> thank you very interesting. >> thank you. >> thank you. well, it is no t secret americans need to save more for retirement. according to bankrate, a recent survey shows one-fifth of all aericans have nothing sav all. now one state is stepping in to help fill the savings gap. sharon epperson has our story. >> reporter: when that small t siness owner josh alice w om a career in biology to beer his focus was crafting the perfect pint. giving employees a way to save for retirement may have been a goal but notne he was able to brew up on his own. >> you spend a lot of time and energy working with these people, developing relationships. and they become family.
and you really want the besor them. you want them to be able to ovide for themselves later in life. >>, thanks to a program th is a first of its kind in the untry, employees at reach break brewing are given the chance to save for their future slew a state-run retirement plan called oregon saves. >> we are giving small bu onesses the same kind opportunities that some of the larger businesses have. low cost savings for employees at no cost to the employers. >> reporter: about 55 million american workers in the private sect are not offered a 401k plan through their employer. most of them, 32 million, work at small businesses which have fewer tn 0 employees. tell me, why is that a probm? >> stu after study shows that people are 15 times more to be saving for retirement if they are offered access through their employer. >> reporter: oregon savesre ires employers who do not offer a 401k to automatically
deduct5% of an employee's wages after taxes and send it t their individual retirement account or ira. workers can contribute a maximum of $5500 a year. the plan is managed by the state and workers must opt out if they doeb want to participe. but so far, many being given the chance are doing night there are about 20,000 who are somewhere n the process when their p periods take place. and in the end we expect there will be abo a million people who could potentially participate. >> reporr: reach break's tap room manager chris rrill, who is contributing 5% of his wages to his plan says this is the first timee has saved for retirement. >> it's always something that's kind of in the back of your mind use yourlways kind of youth as an excuse and say oh, i can always do that later. now it's later. >> reporter: critics say there is too much paperwork for t companies tha already offer 401k plans. yet more states are following oregon. seven have enacted legislation
for their ownla retirement with illinois and california expected to roll out theirs this year. another 24 states have introduced legislation to start their own retirement plans. >> we are hopeful that other states will see the success that oregon is havingn design asking rolling this program out and make similar programs available in their states. >> reporter: josh alice hopes offering a retirement plan will attract the best employees, who will help ensure custors keep coming back. >> one thing that the savings plan will allow us is people will be able to view this as a long term career rather than just a steppingstone. >> reporter: for "nightly business report" i'm sharon epperson. >> cheers. coming up, the sale of the century that allows you to shop like a rockefeller
the legendary collection of the late dav rockefeller is scheduled to be auctioned off at christies in may. the items arego expected t for a record amount, with all the proceeds given to charity.ro rt frank was given a rare look at the pieces by david rockefeller jr. >> reporter: no other name in american histo symbolizes great wealth and status like the rockefellers. now, to their achievements in business and philanthropy, the rockefeller family is about to add another,heargest auction ever. in may, christies and the rockefeller family will sell off the entire collection of the late davidke rller who passed away last year at the age of 101. e sale is likely to set a new record for an auction of a single collection, estimated at more than $500 million. >> sold, $29 million. >> reporter: in a rare interview
at the family farmhouse in upstate new york david's son, david rockefeller jr. said he hopes the family treasures will findew homes around the world. >> i love the idea of thinking about these pces in many other people's homes. l ite a grand recycling. >> reporter: aside from being the yard sale of the century, it's also a wear window into a family that for all of its public good has maintained almost obsessi privacy. david rockefeller was the grandson of john d. rockefeller, the conoversial oil tycoon who became america's first billionaire in 1916. vid was the shareman and ceo of chase bank and servedn countless charity its, museum, and educational boards. that many of the buyers will have that sense that they are buying stories andyi taste, and buying something homey as well as something very beautiful. >> reporter: their unmatched flat wear collection includes
napoleon's favorite sugar bowl and dessert service. there are rare asian buddhas, porcelain collections and carved birdy plus fam heirlooms including a 3th century syrian incense burner that sat on david rockefeller's desk at chase manhattan. >> he probably liked to bur incense everybody day to set the mood. >> it would be great to think . th >> this piece is expected to sell for i think over $200,000. >> that' what i hear. >> reporter: the star of the sale is a picasso. it could fetch over $100 million. there is a matisse nude thael could for as much as $90 million of the and a monet that's estimated u to $70 million. while david and peggy always said they bought for beauty not profit their art also became a great investment. >> my father when he was l aking back at the sectors of his investment, his real estate, his sfoks and bonnd-- stocksbonds,
art. he actually had a colleague of his measure how well they had done eight as generic asset classes and art wo d >> reporteing his lifetime, david away nearly $1 billion.s all the procerom the auction will go to a dozen non-profits selected bydavid. the rockefellers are now in their seventh generation. their financials are kept private. forbes put david's net worth at around $3 billion but he was just a beneficiary of a trust that will now get passed down. david jr. says the sale of so many family treasures is tbittersweet. re are member of the family who are really sad about that. i'm saddest about the idea of going into an empty house thatu to be a beautiful house full of all of these amazing pieces of art. my dad taught me not to look back. >> reporter: but you don't have to b millionaire to live like a rockefeller.
david rockefeller'suf martini links are being offered about an offer of between $400 and $600. an thesear ceramic cheetahs e estimated around $200. christies is storing most items in a secret manhattan basement and is taking some of the top lots on a world tour.ti the aucon house says the rockefeller brand has global appeal and heshe sale may even inspires toda new billionaires to follow the rockefeller model. >> i think itleets an exa for rich americans in terms of both being involved in business and ao being involve in the community and understanding what a serious commitment you have to have to make things change in a positive way. >> reporter: david jr. said it also reminds us that while greatwell with come and go, noble causes endure. th if you get too attached to material gs, it takes your focus off of all of the other important thing in life, including relationships and
global peace and all of those other important issues. so at th end of the day, it's not the thingshe telves that matter in life. >> reporter: for "nightly business report," i'm robert frank in upstate new york. >> so well said. right? it absolutely. >> can't thank you for watching this special edition of "nightly busiamss report." sue herera. >> i'm bill griffith. have a wonderful holiday weekend, everybody. we'll see you monday.
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