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prices on the brands you love, every day. it's that simple. we are going put a wrap on the primary election and no better way to do it. with mike o'neill, dr. o'neill. your proctologist is see you and stan barnes, long time friend and political strategist and operative and lobbyist and all of the above. guys, great to see you, i will put up a picture first of joe arpaio and john mccain. what is the term, octoberen jearn, mccain 80 years old and praip 84.
old. >> after tonight, these two look formidable and when they looked wounded. >> fair enough. i think there was some expectation by their opponent, by their detractors that they were vulnerable in their own primaries and of course dr. o'neill never thought that and neither did i didn't think think were vulnerable. they showed about the way you expect them to show. the general election is an entirely different election and it's a democrat versus republican scenario ?ps and a presidential year. >> with donald trump and hillary clinton on the ballot, turnout will be record high and these guys are not safe in their own general election. >> you still think that because i always thought that if job mccain were vulnerable, somehow i thought he will get wounded from the right and not the left. he might be in a primary that hurt him.
mccain. not the guy joined at the hip with ronald reagan. >> he had a second tier opponent and only won by 12 points. i think there are people that others in the party who may be thinking, gee, if i made a run for it i could have run this. >> let's put up the number. the kelly ward and john mccain race. how do you ex pound on that kelly ward, a lot of money poured into her campaign late. and when you meet her -- they call her kelly and all of this nonsense. she is really a nice person. she is a doctor. a physician. >> -- she is not a nut case despite the caricature that happen in an election. he wins by 13. >> she was not of the stature of a sitting congressman who i think could -- the first tier potential candidates all took a look at it and decided mccain was formidable.
points within john mccain suggests to me a stronger candidate that started out with more name id -- we are speculating. >> they would have probably done better. whether they would have won, i don't know. >> do you think that mccain is in serious trouble. >> i won't go to serious trouble label, i think he is in a real general election. >> toughest race of his life. >> he has had a lot of tough races. it could be. because ann kirkpatrick is a good candidate and will have plenty of money. and it is that kind of year where we -- no one can predict the turnout model of who will be there and what they will do once they are at the ballot. so i think he is going to run like it's his big race. >> do you agree it's his last race. >> no. >> you don't? >> i don't agree. >> i made the point on tuesday night that they are minds me and we all go way back, this reminds me of barry goldwater's last race against bill schultz. >> my first arizona race.
goldwater only won that race when they counted thably votes and back then absentee -- >> he lost on election day in 1980. the. >> a legend. an icons in and john mccain is following in his footsteps. in his old senate seat. he was the nomfy for president of the republican party like goldwater and running in a tumultuous year. >> you don't think that's a crazy comparison. >> i don't. it's a one for >> the big x factor or one of them is the presence of donald trump and joe arpaio on the ballot enough to bring out a hispanic vote that's always promised and never delivered. >> that's a really good point. that's why you are a doctor. i'm not. i want to give you to somebody who was around for that race, linda williams who looks at the race right now, mccain and
>> john mccain loses the center seat he has held since 1986. the 80-year-old says he is feeling confidents in in every race i've been in, i have said it's extremely tough and anybody that's made -- maybe that's one reason why i always won. >> he has always won. he is a decorated navy p.o.w. and for decades he has been arizona's favorite son. but this year 66-year-old ann who represents arizona's vast district one says she thinks she can beat john mccain. >> he is vulnerable. the race is neck and neck and the polls are tight. >> kirkpatrick says as she travels the state of arizona people tell her they are worried about the economy and jobs. she says veterans and senior issues are also a concern. >> i'm about common sense solutions that make's people's daily lives better.
and wildfire dangers are big concerns for arizona. the biggest challenge overall he says. >> biggest challenge is that do we have a failed presidency which is resulted in a world that's on fire and attacks on the united states of america. >> kirkpatrick says mccain has changed. and is no longer the maverick he once was. she says there is definitely a negative trump effect for the senator who has not disavowed donald tru me that trump can say such hateful, racist insulting things and john mccain still supports him. >> though asked repeatedly about disavowing the controversial republican presidential nominee, mccain so far has not done so. >> i support the nominee of the party and i will tell you what, when any time from now on when that question is asked, if i change my mind, i'll let you
think trump's controversies will hurt him as he pursues a sixth term as arizona's senator. >> the people of arizona know me very well. they will judge me by my service to them and the state of arizona. >> when john mccain says that he sounds like a guy who knows something and knows the state very well. you think he survives in the end? >> i do. i think he will run hard. he is going to run in kind of a spectacular way given the guys in. he is not going to phone it in. >> he never has. mike what do you think? >> if i had to take an even money bet now, i would go with mccain but i don't think this race is over. i think there is a campaign to be had and i could present a scenario where he loses and he knows that and i think he will work hard. >> donald trump and his being at the top of the ticket, is that really a drag on mccain? >> i think we -- and kirkpatrick
the trump and mccain ticket and we will hear about that all fall. >> you agree with that? >> and 100% she will open and close tying mccain to trump. i don't agree it's a drag. the it's the only bet she has which to win. she can't wane traditional campaign with him. >> and it will be fascinating to watch the way he dances through how much of an endorsement. thus far he has endorsed this fella whose name i don't know -- >> if he has spoken. >> and the fact he has the nomination gives him the opportunity and the likelihood that he will further distance himself from trump on the theory that i need to attract some of those independents and the far right has nowhere else. >> all year the energy in this election, presidential speaking is on the republican side. record turnouts everywhere. that is going to make a gigantic difference. that's why i think it helps mccain. i think that voter. >> even though the mood has changed.
>> ann is a sitting congress woman so she gives away and concedes the change argument. but people at the polls are going to be numerous and different than normal. >> do you know give me inside baseball why she ran in the first place? why? >> i think she perceived an opportunity. >> i think she was afraid because her district boundaries from pr in limbo and had to make a decision before that was cleared up and gambled she wou mccain than trying to defend a newly drawn congressional seat. >> and that sixth year term. when you have been running perpetually every two years that six year term looks attractive. >> let's talk about joe arpaio for a minute. we can put up the slate and take a look at -- well, no, we don't have results of that because it's a maricopa county race. arpaio wins handily more than a two to one margin did you see
republican primary voters, i don't think he was in any jeopardy in the republican primary. i think november is a completely different thing. yes, his base -- the core joe people, nothing will dissuade them but look at him over the last 25 years. every election he has won by less than the one before. last time he won by five points and he had two opponents. we are now down to one-on-one. you don't have to clobber him, that criminal referral could be the difference. >> arpaio barely got to 50% in the last election there was a third person in there but that person syphoned votes from penzone. >> no question. when somebody votes in this election, when there are three candidates and one is named joe arpaio it's a two step. step one will i vote for arpaio, if not, which one of these other people will i vote for? even if i don't know who they are. >> that's head to head.
penzone -- i think he was somebody wanted to run against arpaio under the most favorable circumstances. and that was to run as -- he really run everybody votes. >> and people still vote partisan. this is a republican county. arpaio has to lose significant group of republicans and go over -- and i think he is going to. there is a joe fatigue that is set in, i believe. and the -- >> doesn't think so. >> but the federal the latest to make that fatigue even worse. >> the argument, if you are a republican and you are uncomfortable with joe arpaio, the best argument is fiscally he has cost you a lot of money as a taxpayer. >> i heard a lot of people say that. >> it's not a small amount of money. >> i think we are up to 130-some million. >> that's real money. >> serious money. >> county level, that's real money. >> what they say in washington when you get up to a trillion,
>> let's listen to joe arpaio on election night, if he is worried, you will never know it. take a look. >> i want to thank everybody that supported me. some heated battles. and we will continue going through the general election. work hard and hope to be elected for my seventh term if you want to say i'm too old. i'm not too old. i worked 14 hours a day. you know it, you guys have been following me around for years and i am going -- age means nothing. >> age means nothing. did you see the old picture. that's from circa 1993 or 4? >> i was in the state house and senate way back in those days and i had joe arpaio thump me on the chest more than once and hasn't changed a bit. i think there is a fatigue has set in on the right, on the left and the center. >> this guy goes to every -- every civic gathering.
meeting people. he has built up good will with people on a personal level. >> what might save him he is all in with trump and back to that turnout model, if the trump turnout model carries trump in arizona, it might lift arpaio through this very difficult time. >> depends on the margin. if it's hair breadth it goes against him. if trump wins big here, that -- yeah, it brings out those -- i go back to the hintp does it motivate the hispanics that have the pair. trump and arpaio as a symbol to get motivated. >> it's predicted forever and i never seen it yet so i'm skeptical there are folks out there trying but it's hard to register voters. >> let me run sound of paul penzone that we spoke to the newsroom on tuesday night. >> strategy for me has never changed. i want to be consistently who i have been and who i continue to
policing. on ways to run the sheriff's office more effectively and efficiently with principles and professional matter to serve this community. >> okay, is that argument about just being competent? is that good enough? >> you know that's the argument that got joe arpaio elected in the first place if you remember way back when he was running at the competence candidate. >> the tucson four and all of those issues. >> it's a pure referendum on arpaio. penzone as long as mirror and not embarrass himself is the stand-in for the anti-arpaio angst. >> it could be anybody. >> almost anybody. >> he has a reputable career in law enforcement. >> he does. >> he is better than the guy out of the phone book. he can hold his own and i think he is probably going to be a good sheriff. >> so you think he will win. >> i think he will win. >> wow, do you share that view? >> yes, i wouldn't bet the farm on it but maybe half the farm. >> wow, that is -- that would be
>> it would. >> that would be the headline. >> end of an era. >> national. >> is that a bigger story if arpaio gets beat than john mccain getting beat? >> depends on whether the u.s. senate is at stake. if john mccain loses and it costs the republicans the control of the senate, that's a big deal. >> i think locally the arpaio story could be bigger but nationally of course the mccain story. >> they are both international figures. both of them. >> mccain was a preside nominee. i think that pretty much trumps -- >> i think sheriff. >> even though we must say this is the most exceptional local sheriff anywhere. >> should donald trump at this point distance himself a bit from sheriff joe arpaio if he is trying to broaden the base that he can -- >> with arpaio, i don't think he has a lot of choice. they are in this together. arpaio is the first guy out at every one of his rallies and you notice that one thing that trump is loyal. who does he not like?
becomes his enemy. conversely. >> you can subtly do it you have arpaio come out to the rally but comes up early in the national press when they are taking the trump event, you might not see arpaio even though he has been there in the room and you might seeham on tv. >> trump can cherry pick it. trump doesn't have to own the criminal referral or any of that bad stuff. trump can own arpaio as far as i'm tough on illegal immigration and that kind of symbolism which he doesn't have to own the bad stuff. >> plus trump has a nuance dang thing in this whole election. it's not even his psyche to say i need to put some daylight between me and that guy. >> it hasn't happened. >> when we come back, we will hit on some congressional races. one and five, those are big. one where ann kirkpatrick vacated to run for senate and five where matt salmon retires. we will talk about who may be a rising star in the republican party out of the primary on
back on newsmaker sunday, we are talking a post mortem of what happened tuesday night. the election results. let's take you to u.s. house district one. this is the seat that ann kirkpatrick left to run against john mccain. paul babeu wins it. it's interesting. for awhile wendy rogers who won in district 9 two years ago in
walter she was in second place in that race for much of the night and then gary kiehne who has been crafty in that area in that seat, he won it last time. he got in there and then -- he almost won. he lost by 160-some vote. >> andy tobin won the nomination. >> exactly right. babeu. more known in central arizona than northern arizona. >> kind of a statewide figure. jr.,. >> he is a heck of a campaigner that guy. >> a lot of charisma a lot of personal energy. when he is in the room, you know he is in the room. on national tell vation lot as a talking head. got a uniform that always plays well. >> tom o'halleran wins the democratic race. tom o'halleran was a democrat -- >> a republican. >> he was a republican and then a independent and now a democrat.
kind of guy who is right in the middle fits perfectly in >> he does. that's nominally a democratic district. right now held by democrat ann kirkpatrick and more democrats than republicans but democrats don't vote like republicans. >> sort of a conservative democrat. >> is it. >> they call them pinto democrats. >> so that race because of the outside money talking about the party money is going to pour in. >> wasn't that two years ago that one of nivet country. >> it's a national seat. >> if the democrats hope to have any hope of taking over the house, they need every single seat like that and more. >> so that even puts it even higher on the radar. >> oh, yeah. with a lot of others. you have to win -- for the democrats they need to pick up 30 that means they have to win all of the close ones and need a couple of miracle. >> as a candidate since you have done it, tell me about running in a district like that that
bigger than new england. >> you feel like you can't get your arms around it because not only is it geographically large and it takes a day to get from one end to the other, but it's diverse and in every way. think of the towns like show low and then down into pinal county and over into yavapai county into the indian country and four corners and the reservation. it's a complex district. >> there is any one theme that runs through that district that somebody can hang their >> this might come as a mild ?surprise but i think the limitd government argument has some legs in that district. even the democrats that live in the white mountains are conservative people that are generally more -- >> keep government off my back. >> number one jobs relative to the rest of the state, the rural areas are depressed. unemployment rate is higher and anything that pourteneds jobs is
>> halerren -- halreturn -- o'halleran have any tentacles in the reservation? this is the biggest reservation district, native american population in a district in the country. >> he doesn't need them as much as it's an automatic. it's an axiom politically in arizona that the navajo nation and the hopi vote democratic. and landslide margins and that's what will carry him if he wins the day. >> he needs that to happen. >> but it's an automatic thing. what he has to do there. that's in his bank account. he needs to campaign in paul babeu territory in pinal county. >> i love the quote from shawn noble. like running for mayor in 1,000 cities. in that district. >> that's a good quote. it's going to be a very nasty campaign because when you get out of state consultants with millions of dollars. >> guys like you guys? >> no, no, out of state. that's the differentiator. >> the bad guys.
the candidate's negatives. let's exploit those negatives. paul babeu has a few that can be exploited. >> selfies and ads. >> television. on channel 10 you will see selfies. >> i hate to say it if this if they are paying the bill. >> station management will be very happy. >> all right. do we have time to get into another one? how much time do we have? we have to take a breakup when we come back we will talk about cd5 and we think is maybe a rising star there. back in a minute on newsmaker
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back on newsmaker sunday, find a couple of races we wanted to look at. district 5, for the retiring matt salmon who leaves after five terms in the house, three back in the 80s and 90s -- or pardon me, the 90s and early 2000s and then the most two terms. christe christine jones is a very interesting up and coming candidate. >> i see for her a safe seat in congress for as long as she wants it. it's a safe district. the only question will be at some point does she get ambitious. >> and that means u.s. senate? >> that's where every congressman wants to go. not only is there more power because there is only 100 of them but they only have to run every six years and running is a pain in the butt for a national
ambitious. >> i do. and i share your judgment that she is going to be labeled the next republican rising star in arizona. >> i have rarely seen in a primary ads that well crafted. those ads were really well done. >> she ran a great campaign. she is engaging and likable and smart and i think she is going to navigate washington just right. >> let's go to cd2. we don't have a slight for that but congressional district 2. the who took over for gabby giffords. matt sines will face martha mcsally. it's a battle ground. evenly split between republicans and democrat. >> martha mcsally won by a handful of votes. she won that in a non-presidential year. this is a prg year and that helps the democrats. so that tilts it more.
>> right now we are a 5-4 split in republicans hold five congressional seats in arizona and democrats four. do you see that moving much? >> i think it will end up being that again but there is a couple of big caveats and the two swing districts. >> one and two. >> one and two are two of our nine but they are two a very few national districts. they are genuine toss up districts. >> that are competitive. and there is going to be tucson tv will millions of dollars spent in tucson. >> speaking our language now. guys, i appreciate it stan barnes and mike o'neill. great to see you both. and we will have you back after november. we didn't even get to donald trump. we will have to save that plenty of time to talk about trump. see you next week on newsmaker
fire rips through a phoenix apartment...leaving one man dead. this fire rips through a phoenix apartment leaving one man dead. this morning, why investigators calling it suspicious. >> hermine is regaining strength as it moves verily up the eastern seaboard. we death and desinstruction the storm has left behind and how much worse things could potentially get. >> and unofficial election results are released in two hotly contested races. what the experts are saying about the outcome and what happens next. good sunday morning, everybody. thank you for joining us for fox 10az a.m. time now 6:00. hopefully you all are sleeping in a little bit and enjoying the time off because a lot of folks don't have to go to work tomorrow. lucky dogs.