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tv   The Steele Report  NBC  February 8, 2016 3:05am-3:35am CST

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at the united nations. our questioning begins right now. captioning provided by caption associates, llc www.captionassociates.com >> announcer: now from kwwl, this is the steele report. >> ron: welcome this week's edition of the steele report, our post caucus wrap-up with dr. chris larimer, our political analyst from the university of northern iowa, an associate professor at political science at uni and this has been an exciting week and historic week again with a surprising outcome to a lot of people of the iowa caucuses, just overall, with cruz winning as desigh civil as he did, what's head for him and also donald trump and marco rubio that you believe is really on the move? >> dr. larimer: for ted cruz, the challenge is still there. he was going -- this is a state where he had to do well, given the evangelical vote in iowa, the social conservative vote, and that was up over previous years, so that in part explains why he did well with exit polls identifying 63, of caucus goers
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that's not the case in new hampshire, but more the case in south carolina. new hampshire is not a good state no ted cruz, that's going to be difficult going forward. for donald trump, he receive a lot of criticism for finishing second and questions about his campaign. you know, he's still the leader in the polls in new hampshire and there's still pressure on him to do well in new hampshire, marco rubio. the fact he finished third in iowa, sort of a very chose third in iowa to donald trump, now the pressure shifts marco rubio and we saw it in his acceptance speech monday night, talking about broader themes and being the nominee and trying to unite the party. there's pressure now on marco rubio, even though he has momentum. >> ron: just think, any other year, marco rubio would have been enough votes from the caucuses to win the caulks, but there was a -- caucus, but there was a record republican turnout this year and this was
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given the fact that there was going to be a new president. that was an interesting turnout. >> dr. larimer: and we could say the same thing about donald trump. eight months ago, to say that donald trump would get 45,000 votes is unusual too. you're right, a turnout of about 186,000 for the republicans, it's a 50% increase over 2012, you know, about 30% of active registered republicans showing up on caucus night, that's phenomenal for the party. that shows that the party is excited about their slate of candidates, that there's quite a bit of diversity in terms of the candidates out there, so i think for the republican pare going forward, they've got to be excited for the general election that that many iowans went out to caucus on monday night. >> ron: we've seen rick santorum get out, ranz fall get out, and even on caucus night, governor o'malley said he was suspending his campaign.
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wayside after new hampshire. >> dr. larimer: carly if i or na, probe not a lot of time in her campaign. it will be interesting to see if iowa is the launching pad for marco rubio, reset the field, but if nothing else, iowa played its role as far as winnowing the field and a certain campaign strategy still works in iowa. it's a state where you can engage in retail politics and do well. >> ron: i remember a friend of mine said one time, and i don't think this is probably true today, but it was in rick santorum's case in 2012, to take part in the iowa caucus, all you really need is a vehicle and some gas moneying but now look how expensive it has become and all of these outside groups already influencing the caucuses and they will throughout the entire election cycle all the through november. it's incredible the amount of
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a caucus or election. >> dr. larimer: and the fascinating thing about that, you still have people waiting until caucus day to make a decision. the entrance poll said they made their decision that night, 16%, and another 19% in the last three days. so despite hundreds of millions of dollars spent on ads, people were waiting until the last few days to make their decision. having the organization in place and having that personal connection with iowans, to some sten sentence -- extent sews things still matter. >> ron: what t you think about the palin endorsement and the fact that donald trump skip the last debate? >> dr. larimer: on the palin endorsement, she is still popular and that was a significant chunk of the electorate of evangelicals on caucus night. ted cruz did really well with
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as far as skipping the last debate, own donald trump came out and said that may have been a poor decision. you think back to 35% of republicans said they may their decision in the last three days, that donald trump wasn't in that last debate could have affected that group of voters' decisions and there's a chance that some of them decided to go to marco caucus site. >> ron: and how about the fact that governor branstad came out a few days before the caucuses, asking iowans not to support cruz, yet he came back and won this pretty convincingly. what does that say, if anything? >> dr. larimer: i don't know if it says a lot about governor branstad. it still speaks more to campaign strategy, being in the state, having the organization in state. if you look at the number of days spent in the state between rubio, cruz and trump, cruz was out front with about 56 tase in the state and dozen -- days in the state and dozens more events in the state. i think it's still more about strategy and not necessarily one issue dominating the campaign. >> ron: that was all about ethanol.
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impact on iowa, but it doesn't affect every iowans. every iowan does that the ethanol fuels at the top of their list. >> dr. larimer: you look at the list among caucus goers, i was government spending nuk one, and then it -- number one, and then it was economy and terrorism. when you talk about government spending, cruz was points ahead of rubio. caucus goers were focused on other issues, including the economy and terrorism where rubio did better, but it was still spending, and on that, cruz does well. >> ron: a great courier reporter says ethanol is responsible for about 50,000 jobs in iowa, but those opposed to the renewable fuel standard have spent about $150 million trying to change that strategy, so it's a big issue, but not for everybody. >> dr. larimer: right, not for everybody, and even though we
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the republicans, it's still a small slice of the entire group that is the republican party. 30% of republicans. when you start to divide that number down as far as fro-ethanol and anti-ethanol, you know, that number gets reduced even further as far as the impact on caucus night. >> ron: we had congressman king on this program just last week and then the night of he sent the tweet out about carson being supposedly out of the race and there were a lot of complaints that that might have influenced some voters. what do you think about that? >> dr. larimer: that's an answer we'll never know, but i certainly think the entrance polls suggest that cruz did well among the expected group of voters you expect in terms of those who identify very conservative, evangel lick cam, focused on goft spending and the turnout among that group was higher than expected, so i don't know that carson lost a significant number of votes because the folks who were showing up aligns with cruz were greater numbers than what was
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affected the results. carson's numbers had been declining going into caucus night. they were around 10, 11, 12 ps, so he finished at 9%. eye not sure there's a trect impact there, but it's certainly certain if someone is saying that during the caucus. >> ron: and cruz did come out the next day after the caucus and apologized because they said they interpreted dr. what carson said about -- what dr. carson sad about going back home to florida, meaning he was getting out of the race. you talk about dirty politics, so who knows about that. >> dr. larimer: that's theion peek about the republican caucuses that they have electioneering in the kauntions where people are -- in the caucuses where people are campaigning for certain candidates. >> ron: dr. chris larimer has a great blog on kwwl.com. we'll take you to that and you can check out some of the
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do you like writing that blog? >> dr. larimer: i do like it a lot. it's great. >> ron: so check out dr. chris larimer's political blog on kwwl.com. our show will be on kwwl.com later today. we have to take a break right
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more as we take a look at thea moment. >> ron: welcome back to this week's edition of the steele report with dr. chris larimer, our kwwl political analyst. he's an associate professor of political science at the
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we were just talking, let's talk about some of the key counties that actually went against the statewide outcome as far as bernie sanders did so well in johnson county. ted cruz didn't do so well in some of the bigger counties. what do you make of that? >> dr. larimer: i will just speaks to the unique political geography in the state. i always talk about the nine big counties in iowa, in class, those with 50,000 or more active voters. almost 50% of active voters in the state of iowa are in just nine counties. any statewide election, you have to start with those nine first. you mentioned bernie sanders, he won johnson county, black hawk county, story county, those university counties, so obviously doing well to the younger crowd. it doesn't speak to delegate strength, but it speaks to the demographics in those counties. you look at the other big six counties, bernie sanders won four of them. it was only polk and dubuque county where hillary clinton about dert than bernie sanders.
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that if hillary goes on to be the nominee, certainly will have to address the differences in demographics because looking at entrance polls, there's a 91-point difference between her support among groups 17 to 44-year-olds compared to sanders. he was up a impinez 91 points. on the folks 45 and to 65 and older, clinton was up 66 points. you talk about the difference in those two age groups and the clinton campaign has to think about that going forward. on the republican side, we talk about the rubio surge, but he won only five counties. he won polk, johnson, lynninn, scott and dallas. we can talk about vote share there and he he was winning among that younger demographic, winning among the 17 to 29-year-olds and talking to students in class the last couple days, they saw that at the precinct sites.
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tating towards marco rubio. that's what makes iowa unique. you can win in a small handful of counties and do well in any sort of statewide race. >> ron: and obviously, unless you were in a cave or something, you know that the democratic outcome was the closest in the history of the iowa caucuses and iowa caucuses go way back to the 1800s. there's only been one year that iowa hasn't had caucuses and i guess going back to '72 when we started getting publicity, particularly in '76, even though jimmy carter didn't win that. >> dr. larimer: he got uncommitted. >> ron: you said on the set you hillary clinton would significant, but the sanders people, sounds like they were >> dr. larimer: yeah, they were, because the road ahead is after new hampshire, it's such a -- the electorate changes so much, changes in a way that's favorable to clinton, so again,
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out of two for the first two races and it looks like she has that. the results have been verified. another unique thing about the caucuses, you can't do a recount when you're doing preference groups and figuring out state delegate quif, so what's confirm is going to stay. >> ron: so there's 44 delegates at stake in iowa on the democratic side. they have to split those even though she won just by the narrowest of mar gins. >> dr. larimer: right now, it looks like hillary clinton will get 33 out of the 44 and bernie sanders gets the rest. what was reported on caucus night is state delegate equivalents because a complicated formula to get to that point because they're awarding thousands of delegates at precinct, but the number has to get narrowed down to the 44 total. >> ron: let's talk about the future of the caucuses because the republican national party chairman reince priebus has
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and sometimes publicly that elz like to take the power away from the first four states, iowa, new hampshire, south carolina and nevada. what do you think after this showing in iowa? will than tougher for him to do? >> dr. larimer: i think it depends on lot on how marco rubio does. i think there was a lot of concern given what happened in 2008 and 2012 with huckaby and santorum winning in iowa, but not competing for the nomination, there was a concern if that happened again, what is is the national republican party going to try to do to adjust the sequencing of the nominating process. again, you had a socially conservative candidate win with ted cruz, but you saw record turnouts and we saw marco rubio emerge as a, you know, a potential viable contender for the nomination. if he would go on to be the nominee, then i think that makes it harder. so i think the additional pressure on marco rubio is that we could potentially save the iowa caucuses.
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harkin ran as a favorite son and he got 76% of the caucus vote. bill clinton that year got 2.8%. obviously, he wins the nomination and the presidency. that hurt the caucuses in a way. >> dr. larimer: it did because you had tom harkin running, obviously not a competitive year, and you had an incumbent on the republican side in bush, so turnout was extremely low. we didn't have a candidate, we didn't have the media visits we've seen in other years, so there was a concern after '92 that it would be a problem, but then 1996, very big year for the republicans with bob dole coming to the state and so the caucuses were kind of rejuvenated in '96 and they've been okay since, but there was a legitimate concern coming into this year, but i think given the turnout, given the dynamics and how the dynamics of the race have changed because of what happened in iowa, i think it makes reince priebus's argument to try to adjust iowa more difficult. >> ron: and no howard dean
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so that's in the pass. i want to let people know again your blog is available on web. it's on our main page. i appreciate you taking the time to come in and talk to us. we'll be talking to you many times throughout the course therefore election leading up to november. chris larimer, thank you very much for the we're coming back with a student from linn-mar
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>> ron: and welcome back to the steele report for this week. it's time now to meet our next guest, and i'm really excited about this interview. she's a senior at linn-mar high school in mayorion. i'd like to welcome her to the program right now, sruthi palaniappan. >> sruthi: hi, ron, thank you for having me. >> ron: i've been working on that name quite significantly here the last few days so make sure i got it right. let me tell you about her. sruthi as student ambassador and activist for the nonprofit network called the save the children network. all about saving the lives of
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critical need for early chilet hood education. so sruthi, welcome. we're going to talk about your the united nations general assembly in new york city, but first of all, tell everybody how you got involved and why you got involved in the save the children action network. >> sruthi: i think the first thing i got involved with in the children action network was my involvement hosting a benefit concert for save the children, which i kind of was really inspired by giving back to the community, and but also wanted to combine my passion of music with advocacy efforts, so i was able to do that through save the children action network and since then, i've been involve in the capacity as a student ambassador and i think it's a remarkable opportunity for me to learn about issues impacting youth and be able to straight for them. >> ron: you're quite a musician, i understand. >> sruthi: i love to play violin and i sing and dance in the show choir. it's really fun. >> ron: and you have a great high school in lynn plar, so i'm
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you have a lot of friends that follow your activities pretty closely. save the children action network was actually founded recently in 2014. it is a 501(c)(4) started by save the children, which goes way back to 1919 if i remember correctly, but a lot of organizations in this day and age have their own political action committee so to speak. back in september, you were one of just 20 students in the world selected to be a part of a great event, as i mentioned, at the united nations general assembly. as we talk about, this we're going to show some photographs here, but what kind of experience was that? how were you selected and what was it all about? >> sruthi: it was definitely a life changing experience and i think the reason save the children action network had me into on this trip is the time and effort i've put into the organization and because i've been so capable of using my voice to advocate for change, we wanted to take it to the international level. there was a great platform for me to be able to do just that.
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opening ceremonies, the global citizens festival, so what a tremendous stage for you as a young high school student getting ready to go to college, around 200 world leaders, what a platform to have your voice heard. >> sruthi: yeah, i was definitely quite the platform. i never imagined being in that position, surrounded by the world's most powerful leaders, and being able to know that they're truly listening to you and want to hear what you have to say, that's just remarkable to be able to have that kind of impact. >> ron: that's what i wanted to ask you. i know you talk to a lot of candidates here in iowa leading up to the caucuses. you will continue here as they move into the general election. do you get the feeling that they really are listening or are they just kind of nodding their heads and then they go on their way? what's you're gut feeling? do they really care? >> sruthi: oftentimes i think that as teenagers, we don't have the power to make that kind of impact and people will not listen to, but if you're able to speak with fashion and really show that this is -- with
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this is an issue you care about, they will feel compelled to listen to you and take change in those actions. >> ron: the fact is that when young children fall behind in academics early on, in their early learning and education, many times, far too often, they just don't catch up and this is one of your goals of the organization, early childhood education, correct? >> sruthi: it's so important. when you see 90% of a child's brain is developed by the age of 15, if they're not able to target them during that age rang, there's no way they will be able to catch up, so it's vital that we can provide them with the resources and high quality education early on. >> ron: here's a statistic for you, should get your attention. i know it certainly did mine. i was struck by a statement that 16,000 children die every day around the world from illnesses and things that save the children, your organization and the action network, believes can be prevented and give people a different kind of outlook and atmosphere to save those many, many lives.
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you say 16,000 children are dying across the world, it's from very preventable causes such as diarrhea, malnutrition and other zinch diseases. it's something -- simple diseases. it's something we definitely should be taking action on. >> ron: and sustainability is a huge topic right now, as is climate change and some of other key issues out there. you have a goal over a 15-year period, you realize that you'll be in your 30s when that plan is fully implemented, so won't it be great to say i played a role -- >> sruthi: in making a part of it. >> ron: making the world a better mace. i know you're going off to college, maybe at stanford next year, your first choice, it's exciting. >> sruthi: it's definitely very exciting. being at the u.n. when the goals were inaugurated, it's just so special and to know that 15 years down the line, i might be the one helping to make these policies as well.
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>> ron: the media contact, by the way, for sruthi's organization, save the children action network, is ally wright. i want to put her email tracy up on the screen right now. i want alwright@savechildren.org. it's an easy one to remember. what i'd like to ask you now is, your demo grask is so critical -- demographic is so critical. you'll be voting in your first election come november. >> sruthi: it's so exciting. >> ron: what are the key issues for people your age? what are you looking for in a candidate and what do you think is the key issue that faces you as you look to your future? >> sruthi: i definitely know that as high school students, something that we really care about is education because we're surrounded by it every day. we go to school five sometimes a week. i know a lot of people, especially seniors, upperclassmen in high school are looking for a candidate that's going to support them in terms of college education, someone that can make it more affordable and has a plan to provide us
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opportunities later on. i know that's something that i really care about, getting a good education and being able to kind of see where life takes me from there. >> ron: are you swayed when a celebrity comes to support a candidate or tu just look at that as one of those things where they're going to bring somebody famous in? i know hillary clinton had demi love vat to come in? does that make a difference in your mind? >> sruthi: i want to go to an event to listen solely to what the candidate has to say. it's about what the candidate's message is and how that translates to you and your ideals. i know there are many people, unfortunately, that are simply going because demi lovato, fer say, is expecting to the event. people should looking at the overall end goal, which is who you want to to be elected as the next president. >> ron: anything else you want to add?
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of your trip. what was it like tok at the united nations general assembly in new york city? >> sruthi: definitely an empowering experience, something i'll take with me forever. i know i have the capability to make a difference when i speak passionatelily about issues that impact people my age. it's a great opportunity for me to raise my strois for other people that -- my voice for other people that may not be able to do that. >> ron: sruthi palaniappan, senior at linn-mar high school, i know they don't just let anybody out there, so i know you're toog a great job. i really appreciate you staying the time for coming to be a part of this week's program, the steele report. >> sruthi: thank you for having me. >> ron: that's our program this week. thanks for watching. we're also online on kwwl.com
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we'll see you next week. hi, everyone. welcome to "on the money." i'm becky quick. fantasy sports, is it a game or gambling? the multi billion dollar industry with a target on its back. new year, time for a new job? how to pound the pavement in the digital era. a wharton professor who missed out on an opportunity. how to recognize good ideas. one small business this weekend has their super bowl and space cowboy. mary thompson finds out what it takes to become an astronaut. "on the money" starts now. >> this is "on the money," your money, your life, your future.
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