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tv   Quadriga - The International Talk Show  LINKTV  April 1, 2017 2:00pm-2:31pm PDT

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britain it is official, has triggered the count done on the withdrawn from the european union. launch theresa may addressed parliament, the u.k. ambassador to the e.u. delivered a letter to the council president in brussels. the economic and political costs of brexit could be high for both sides. not least, further separation. scotland, for example, is now talking about leaving the united kingdom. there is also some rumbling amongst other euro skeptic
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member countries to will brussels seek a tough pardon to deter copycats yet good that is one of the questions you want to talk about here on quadriga. our town today, "brexit - a painful divorce?" that is the question we want to talk about with our guests. it is a pleasure to welcome petra pinzler, a journalist for die zeit. for great britain, the times after will be worst when the people realize their country is bound to the e.u. with less influence. catherine hickley is a british author based in berlin and a former correspondent for bloomberg. she says the decision to leave the e.u. will likely lead to the breakup of the united kingdom. it is a pleasure to welcome david charter, and berlin-based correspondent for the british there is noays that
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evidence that the balance of voters hasn't shifted. that means looking hard at the reasons that drove them away. welcome to all of you. i would like to ask about your personal reactions to the news. catherine hinckley, as a citizen of the u.k. living in germany, what was your personal feeling as you heard that the process is beginning? i am personally very by this situation and wondering whether i will be able to stay. , i am going to apply for german citizenship. until now, i have been a denial but there is no denying it. yes, the moment has come to say, i will become a german. melinda: a strong symbolic
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gesture for a u.k. citizen. lays charter, your book out what has been called a roadmap for brexit. published five years ago, long before david cameron decided to hold the referendum. so, what is your reaction yet good to you have a sense of, finally? david: not really. that predict, i suppose, britain would l leave. i foresaw then because britain was not so involved in all of the developments of the european union. even if we had narrowly voted to stay, we would have loosened our bonds for their. the vote to leave has saddened me and, like catherine, i and a british person living in europe and it has causing difficulties and some confusion about the
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future and making it more uncertain for us. melinda: would you consider going as far as catherine? david: i would consider it. britisher myself to be first, the european second. if i lived in germany longer, i would qualify. i have not this here long enough yet. if brexit develops, yes. it could be something to consider. melinda: the german minister wish often uttered in the case of private divorces both's remain friends" and sides still need each other but that which is really for field once the partners start wrangling over the details of the divorce. what do you expect? petra: i think it will be
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awfully messy. divorcee like an ugly where people want to separate but at a certain point they realize they have children together. it is a lot about money, which will be difficult to divide. i am sad that it will be pretty uncomfortable for both sides. i assume, for the british, even more so. her but it wasn't only on the british side and in brussels, all parties at the moment trying to sound friendly and constructive as this news came out. catherine, do you think there is any sense that the risks of brexit have been overstated? catherine: no. i mean, in terms of the risks being overstated, we have so far seen that all of those scare stories about the economy have not so far come to fruition.
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melinda: which theresa may said in her remarks. however, the economy is flourishing the brexit hasn't started yet. to see what happens when they unravel the details of all of these laws. task they aree confronting is in or miss. there are only 400,000 civil servants and at the same time, negotiating with it e.u. on all of these treaties amounting 40 years of legal documentation -- they will be trying to negotiate new trade packs with other countries. ?elinda: will they be many people on the you side say no, they cannot simultaneously negotiate the divorce and try to
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get bilateral treaties with the same partners they are separating from. petra: they are not allowed to do so. they over handed this ability to negotiate treaties with other countries to the e.u.. can't.lly, they i doubt that they have the people to do this at the same time. just to get rid of the regulations is about -- one dozen every day in the next two years. they do not have the people. like many other countries, they had to the expertise of trade issues over to the e.u. commission. they do not have the people. it is an overload of work. i do not see how they will be able to additionally do treaties with other countries. melinda: in your book laying out this potential roadmap, did you address the feasibility of untying these strands? david: not in the level of detail that is becoming apparent
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literally every day. foresaw that it would be an enormous undertaking which would totally overwhelmed the , which has the responsibility having held the referendum. it is not going to leave any room for any other legislation good let's hope we do not need any other legislation urgently. what is going to happen is there is going to be one bill that will co-opt all of the european regulations that are direct regulations from brussels into british law and then, with no time limit on how long they last , and in the future, they will be adapted or rejected as the many of themecause are contingent upon the european treatise which will no longer apply. there is a method but it isn't
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right to say -- it is right to say that it is an enormous amount of funding, personnel, and effort. melinda: can it be done in two years? david: the two years as for the exit treaty. that is the untangling of our relationship with the e.u. it would be nice if more could be done to kickstart the trade agreements and the ongoing relationship in other areas and security from aviation for example and a lot of other areas but that would be nice but it is going to be difficult. admit thatth sides the negotiation process will be argued. does that mean a deal at any cost? no, says great britain. >> the british foreign secretary boris johnson says it is perfectly fine for his country to leave the e.u. without a joint trade deal.
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his boss, theresa may, as emphasized having no deal at all is better than a bad deal. banks and other companies are dependent on business with the europe. the member countries are britain's most important trade partners. if that market should collapse, britain could lose as many as 100,000 jobs according to one study. the government has downplayed the risk while offering tax breaks to companies and announcing investments in an attempt to shore up the economy. so farar, london has completelyt nor brussels demand for 60 billion euros. e.u. is demanding the sum for unpaid build and liability for joint debt. with a gamble pay off? -- will the campbell payoff? melinda: let me take that
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question and pass it on to you, petra pinzler. will this payoff? petra: the question is payoff for who he echoes some businesses will be better off because this is the nature of business. from the majority of people, it will be worse on both sides. every divorce,r you are bound by the children you have. a lot of different programs and things that we are doing together. into a couple of these programs heavily. there is a huge amount of debt toward the e.u. of the 60 billion we just heard about, are programs that we are doing together. the bill will have to be paid and then we will have to find out what we can do together and
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what we want to do together and i am pretty sure that a lot of people will suffer from this divorce. eurosa: the 60 billion that they want to collect -- theresa may did say that london is aware of its obligation as a departing member country. those were her words. do you think that means they will settle? or not theyhether will pay, i think it is a starting point for negotiations on both sides. if theresa may is saying that she is willing to pay, presumably she is willing to pay something. aware.: she said, that makes it a little unclear. she also said that no deal would be better than a bad deal. the you agree? well, i do not want any deal at all. it is difficult to say.
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it is so difficult to say how all of this is going to end up. that if there is a bad deal, it might require some rethinking. there is no democratic system in on the actual outcome of these negotiations. but therete to leave is no vote on whether or not people want to leave under these conditions. in my view, there should be. this is something likely to come .p again i do not think we can rule another that could happen. .etra: what a great example it would mean a lot of traffic jams in dover. in the cattle exported toward the e.u., they would have to be inspected again because we have frontiers again.
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no deal would probably be in terms of technical trade, would be difficult. david: i could not agree more is justs no deal line some kind of rhetorical standpoint. it is completely crazy that no deal is better than a bad deal. a bad deal is a subjective judgment anyway. who is going to say that it is a bad deal? the european side is clear, trying to reach some kind of compromise from their standpoint which is also a pretty tough opening gambit. that is with the process has always been about. melinda: let's talk about how much room there is to make a deal and focus on those crucial pillars of the single market that britain has been a part of, namely on the one hand, free trade in products and on the other hand, free mobility for european labor. beginning to the very
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of the considerations of brexit, there has been a discussion about the degree to which these pillars can be separated. brussels says they are both inherent to the single market. the british would like the free trade part without the free movement of labor. to what degree is there room for compromise? david: all we have to do is look to the modern deals that have been done by the european union with canada, for example. they are in negotitiations withh japan. there was a good one with south korea which does not involve free movement of people from all thesese reasons because these places are far away from the european union and not part of a community which has the four freedoms at the heart of the treatise which binds together the members britain is no longer a member, leaving this in the market. it is not going to take part in
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freedoms of movement anymore. it is to do a free trade deal like canada or south korea. petra: one big difference between canada and the u.k., the u.k. has also been in part of the free market of capital which means free flow of capital within the e.u. so we all know that the city is very important to the whole british economy could canada doesn't have this part. this will be a part of the negotiations deal that as long as the uk's still wants to have influence in the way it influences financial markets to give [indiscernible] david: canada is in the free eva should market. there are aspects of it which would be additional to a canada again -- we are next door. that is the addition. -- ambition. catherine, a report
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mentioned the possibility that as many as 100,000 jobs could following an effect is that although the british economy is doing well at the moment, trade between britain and germany has dropped by 10%. should companies start to actually move their operations out of london? some financial services companies are saying they are looking very seriously and even people to paris, frankfurt. how will the british people react to that? catherine: it is inevitable that that would happen. banks planning to move operations out of london. we should not be too hasty to say that the city of london will be the same anymore. i think that london will remain
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the financial capital despite all of this. the city of london was the city of london long before the european union. i cannot say that particularly changing. i think the loss of jobs to the e.u. is inevitable. pepele did knonow that. melinda: you implied that there might be a form of buyers remorse that eventually sits in. you also implied that you wish there would be no deal at all. is there any chance that this could be rolled back? catherine: i do see a chance. the main chance is really just if things seem to be going so badly with economic damage, if there is a political movement within the u.k. in favor of remaining were turning back all of this, at the moment that is not the case and the labour
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party is not in a position to put up any kind of opposition. the only person speaking out is -- he doesn't have a power base. and tony blair, who nobody listens to anymore. politicians we have at the moment who are providing opposition. that would have to change. of course, it would change if the economy started going down the tube. and if the negotiations started .o look disastrous then, there would be an opening for another referendum. melinda: certainly, amongst the potential political costs are renewed tensions in northern ireland and between scotland. a majority of scots voted to remain in the european union and they do not like where things
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are headed. one day beforere the governmenet handed o over his letter startig a process of withdrawal, the scottish parliament voted to give nicola sturgeon the authority to begin negotiations on leaving the u.k. prompting cheers from many. she wants to hold a second referendum on scottish independence. theresa may has tried to convince her not to do so. tools does theresa may actually have? david: she has the ultimate tool that she needs to give approval for the referendum. she needs to be convinced herself that there is an ovoverwhelming demand to hold te vote in she has made it pretty clear that she is no minded to entertain this new referendum. talking about having a second referendum, we are more likely to have a second referendum in
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scotland then we are to have one on e.u. membership. it doesn't take the question, if you have a second referendum, can you have a second in britain? in the light of the deal that is unfolding or is about to be done -- i mean, i agree with catherine. when you are in the case that it is not finally done, there is still the potential for another referendum. the referendum in the u.k. was andivisive and so poisonous it has really caused a fracture in british society that is quite distressing that, unless s there is a massive change or a collapse in the economy, i think we're leaving the e.u. opening catherine, your statement mentioned the possibility of a breakup of the united kingdom. what consequences would a scottish withdrawal -- let's say
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theresa may cannot stop them from going forward. sound odd this may but i honestly think that the concept of the united kingdom mn scotland being a part of great britain is more a part of our identity then the european union ever was. i think it is a very serious thing, something that will hurt people a lot. it will hurt the english. with scotland, there is already almost half of the population in favor of doing this. it is absolutely understandable that they should have another referendum. it is justified. the basis on which they understand or nationality is changing. tragedy. a great it is also a dilemma for ireland. melinda: we could have a
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boundary running through ireland. catherine: which the irish definitely do not want. some really remarkable political developments in northern ireland. in case a junior is one of the leading voices of unionism. he actually said after the e.u. referendum that citizens of northern ireland should take up their rights and get irish republic passports to keep you within the. i have heard to british colleagues say, we may see violence in northern ireland again within the year due to the tensions. david: i would not rule it out. back in the day, when britain eec, thejoin the founding european union in the
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1960's, our prime minister ,dward haste said at the time this may have contributed to the awful troubles breaking out in the north, the fact that britain was blocked from joining along with ireland. to our: let me come back initial question about how messy this will be. e.u. inple in the brussels are worried about other euro skeptic member countries taking a leaf out of their book and say, maybe we will try to withdraw or get a better deal. is that a reason we could see brussels driving a hard deal to deter eurosceptics? petra: they might try but i doubt they will succeed. what we have seen as a reevaluating of the e.u. ever
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since the brexit was a reality. people within europe started to feel -- we have people in germany on the streets every sunday demonstrating in favor of europe. i recently spoke to someone from poland and they said, our population is very much in favor of europe. i doubt this outcome. because people are sad when we can do so many things together with british, we spent so much political energy splitting up countries. it is sad. melinda: thank you for being with us for this discussion. thanks for tuning in. see you soon.
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thanks very much for joining us. i'm damien mcguinness. and today, as an anti-migrant party look set to do well in upcoming dutch elections, we're looking at the fears of immigrant communities there. now, moroccans have been in the netherlands for generations, and they feel dutch. but populist leader gert wilders is using them as scapegoats in his election campaign. he calls them scum. but more of that later. deniz yuecel has found himself in the middle of a diplomatic

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