tv Jansing and Co. MSNBC December 30, 2013 7:00am-8:01am PST
attention to the fight over income inequality. which states are raising the minimum wage on january 1st and the future battle grounds. good morning to you, i'm richard lui in for chris jansing on this monday. we start with developing news out of russia. just 38 days before the winter olympics there in sochi, a second terror attack in two days. this raises questions about security as the world's best athletes converge to that region. this morning a suicide bombing ripped apart a trolley bus during morning rush hour killing at least 14. at a nearby train station yesterday, a similar attack killed 17. and on friday, a car bomb exploded in a town just 170 miles from sochi. nbc's jim maceda is in moscow following all of these developments for us. jim, good evening to you there. how is russia handling the aftermath on the ground and for that matter those who are watching from abroad? >> reporter: hi, richard. well, russian officials, first of all, they declared a state of
emergency today in volgograd while investigators there have issued a statement saying that this morning's bus bomb was from their perspective definitely carried out by a male suicide bomber. people were going to work or the market this morning when that bomber struck and now a whole city of one million is terrified. reports that residents are staying put, they're staying inside. they're just too afraid to go out about their daily lives. now, the strong suspicion is that this is the work of islamist insurgents from the rest of north caucuses. police are already calling these latest attacks acts of terror and the investigators are, we understand, starting to find links between the two latest bombings that you mentioned and both of them related, they say, to the public appeal several months ago from the chechen war
lord, an appeal to his men, if you recall, richard, to kill civilians and disrupt the upcoming sochi winter olympics. back to you. >> jim, as you do look at this, why is volgograd specifically an important city when we're talking about sochi and the future winter olympics? >> reporter: well, first of all, volgograd is a big city, a million strong. it's relatively close to sochi. it's only about 400 miles away. it's one of the big cities that that's close to sochi. it's also at a very important transportation hub. if you needed to take a train, for instance, or a bus, for that matter, to and from sochi, you would go through volgograd, so it's the proximity, i think, of the series of attacks so close to sochi that sends out this really frightening signal to russians that these militants
can really strike anywhere and at will. back to you, richard. >> jim maceda as always, thank you so much for that. i want to bring in msnbc counterterrorism expert michael leiter, who joins me on the phone right now. michael, you heard probably what jim maceda was telling you there, if this indeed is an effort to disrupt the sochi games, can it be stopped? and if so, how? >> richard, i think it's very, very hard to stop these sorts of attacks. i think what is easier for the russians to do and i think they likely will is secure the sites around sochi. so i think the venues, the athletes, even the spectators once they're in sochi should be relatively safe. it's an enormous security presence there with tens of thousands of troops. but the areas away from sochi, especially the mass transit areas, although they can be protected to some extent with metal detectors and the like, these sort of small-scale attacks by a very determined and skilled enemy are going to be very difficult for the russians to stop altogether. >> and you know, michael, when sochi was initially selected,
this sort of attack, these types of attacks were the concern at the time. now that we're seeing evidence of that, what does that say to you? is this concerning based on we've seen three attacks in four days? >> i think it's extremely concerning. really since 9/11 olympics have always thought to be a potential target but that has never come to pass, in large part because, frankly, terrorists understand that attacking an event like the olympics is not great propaganda. but for the chechen rebels to embarrass president putin, this is very much his games, without attacking the olympics themselves, this is an incredible propaganda coup. as able as the russian security forces are, they have not been able to stamp out this terrorist threat and i think it's unlikely they'll stamp it out in the six weeks running up to sochi. >> talk about the thinking of this muslim extremist group that has asked for maximum effect
here, maximum force, what does that mean in terms of why they're selecting civilians here to be killed? we're talking about buses, we're talking about teenagers, people going to work. why does that make sense so many hundreds of miles away from sochi? >> it doesn't make any sense in any reasonable way, but the fact is that fighting in the north has been absolutely brutal on all sides and russian security forces in the view of the rebels and the chechen groups have also attacked civilians and killed civilians, so this is really all-out war to these groups. i think jim was right, targeting away from sochi but close enough, a key transportation hub, that really does undermine russian confidence in the games and international confidence in how well the games will be -- will come off. so i think in that sense it's a softer target, but still a very, very powerful propaganda target for these groups. >> we can understand those traveling there thinking about that major transportation hub.
michael leiter, thanks so much for your perspective on that. a new report in "the new york times" reigniting the debate on benghazi. this does not support what republicans have said, that al qaeda or other organized terror groups were involved in last year's attack that killed ambassador chris stevens and three other americans. the "times" says smaller, local militant groups carried out the attack. but the report does not fully support the administration's sentiment that this was spontaneous. lawmakers on both sides debated the report. >> all of that would directly contradict what "the new york times" definitively says was an exhaustive investigation. that story is just not accurate. >> and raises serious questions that contradict the dialogue or the story that many republicans particularly are trying to paint. >> let's bring in "washington post" reporter ed o'keefe and m.j. lee. ed, what does this mean for republicans who have made benghazi a big issue, as i was just mentioning?
>> i think this goes beyond partisan american politics and really this is just a great piece of journalism that helps better explain the complexities of the situation there on the ground. yes, it disputes what republicans have been running with for the past year or so and it does raise questions about what the obama administration had said. but really more than anything what david kirkpatrick did with this piece is demonstrate how complex the situation is there on the ground. it's not black and white. it's not something we can discuss in just a few minutes on tv. it requires real thoughtful reading. you saw lawmakers on sunday say this disputes what the official intelligence reports say but it offers a lot of new information and needs to be taken seriously. >> you know, m.j., the report also doesn't fully support the administration's stance on it being spontaneous, as i had just mentioned here, saying that surveillance of the u.s. compound happened at least half a day before the attack and one of the key leaders involved was known for being comfortable when forced to deal with the americans. that's what "the new york times"
is saying. why hasn't the white house responded then, even disputing what has been said in this "new york times" piece? >> richard, first of all, i have to agree with ed that there's no question that this "new york times" story that came out over the weekend, it is a great piece of journalism. there was clearly extensive reporting. there were very specific details. but at the end of the day we saw on the sunday shows, as ed mentioned, you know, lawmakers are saying this may not necessarily be accurate and it raises questions about the story that the administration has been telling. and i think that at the end of the day when it comes to what exactly happened in september of 2012, exactly who was involved, to what extent al qaeda may or may not have been involved, and to what extent the events were the result of, you know, meticulous planning, we may not ever get definitive answers to these questions, at least not any time soon. so, you know, this just about guarantees that this issue continues to be a political
football that ends up being tossed around. and, you know, i think that all of us would like to hope that the people in washington who care about this issue care about it because of the lives that were lost, but we all understand that this is an issue that has been politicized by both members -- members of both political parties. >> ed, to you on this, you were mentioning the complexity and just reading through this report, it will take you some time. you've got to sit down and, again, the details that you get we have not seen before. based on the complexity that you were just mentioning, what stands out to you? who can the united states actually trust in that space and who can't they? susan rice also, sis she vindicated based on her statements before? >> i think the story shows that it's very difficult for american officials working in north africa, in the middle east, in any part of the world to really truly trust anyone, especially in these hot spots. david kirkpatrick who did this is unrivaled in his
understanding of the region. he was able to talk to people who probably wouldn't talk to american officials generally. so i just think it is a very complex picture, as m.j. said. if we ever know the truth, there are going to be people who don't like it, who will dispute it. and this will just continue to be a real flash point in american foreign policy and american politics. it's just one of those situations that will be debated for years to come. >> i want to shift to obamacare, another big headline today. the administration saying that enrollment on healthcare.gov, 1.1 million. most of that coming in december, with 975,000. that total is expected to reach two million by the time that state-run markets, once they include their numbers into this. ed, if so, that's close to the rate they'll need to make the seven million mark the cbo put out by march 31st. is the white house then, are they out of woods if this continues at this rate? >> by no means. we don't know who these two million people are. we don't know that they are the
young, healthy, 20-somethings that the administration desperately wants to sign up to help keep the costs down. it could very well be that it's not. they may come later, they may not come at all. that will be a more critical question is who are the millions of people signing up. yes, they are much closer to the three million goal they had set for the end of december. we'll see if they hit seven million by march. but the bigger question is who exactly is signing up. what kind of plans are they getting and what is that doing to the overall cost of health care. >> insurance companies need those numbers from the young. m.j., the next test will be on wednesday. that's when coverage is expected to begin for folks. democratic leaders looking ahead to that. they have put out some guidance to their members to pitch those success stories to reporters. if they are able to get those stories out about the jane smith, let's just say, at long last with coverage gets a checkup and luckily finds early indications of an illness, are those the stories that will b t button this up for them? >> come january 1st, the political narrative really has
the potential to change. one, for the administration because as you mentioned there's the potential for the white house to get these real stories of real americans who really have benefitted from, you know, getting the insurance coverage that they would not have been able to get in the past. you know, visiting the doctor for the first time in years. but at the same time, you know, the narrative shifts drastically for the republican party as well. up until this point, every time a republican said let's repeal obamacare, let's repeal this law that doesn't work, they were not actually talking about a law that actually affected real people and real americans. come wednesday, that narrative really changes. whenever you're talking about obamacare, you're talking about a law that millions of americans are going to be receiving benefits from, regardless of what you think about the merits of the law. so i think in 2014 republicans understand that their talk about and their arguments against
obamacare has got to be more nuanced and has to be more specific. >> thank you so much, m.j. lee, ed o'keefe, appreciate your time. >> good to be with you. happy new year. >> happy new year to you as well. let's go to the news feed. new information about the man police shot and killed during an attempted bank robbery in arizona. mario garnett served time for making threats against president obama in 2010. the fbi says garnett is responsible for leading police on a nationwide manhunt after killing an officer at a mississippi bank a week ago. the third time was not the charm for the crew on board a research ship in antarctica. bad weather conditions forcing a second ship to abort their rescue attempt. the expedition leader talked about the options that are still on the table this morning on "today." >> what possibilities, hopefully the ice breaker will try again. we can also try a helicopter evacuation or alternatively just a vessel that is in the region
and if that were to come for us, it would definitely get us out. >> the 223-foot ship has been stuck in the ice since last tuesday, but reportedly has plenty of supplies. just when residents in maine thought their power problems were coming to an end, no. a snowstorm has caused another round of outages for more than 5600 customers there. some areas seeing up to a foot of snow overnight and frigid temperatures are settling in for the next few days. coming up, we'll talk to congresswoman eleanor holmes norton about the surging sign-ups on healthcare.gov and her take on the blockbuster report on the benghazi report. that's next.
on january 1st, people already signed up will actually start using their coverage. democrats are hoping to start touting success stories. kathleen sebelius kicked off the effort by writing op-eds in more than three dozen papers. the des moines register she writes this is a milestone for the many families who have waited too long for affordable health insurance because of a broken system that was stacked against them, end quote. i'm joined by d.c. democratic congresswoman eleanor holmes norton. representative, good morning to you. we know things are better looking at those numbers, but the goal as has been said, it's seven million people signed up by the end of march. can that happen? >> oh, sure. look what you saw. you saw double the number that had signed up sign up on just the days before january 1st. we all do the same thing. last minute. and when that fine is going to kick in, you're going to see
people trotting to sign on like you've never seen it before. >> what tells you that might happen. >> let me tell you what tells me. what we have been battling now is, first, every time the house couldn't think of anything else to do, it had a big debate on repealing obamacare so there are millions of people out there who think it was repealed. so there was no way to break through that very easily. then comes this debacle of a website which seemed to confirm that it must have been repealed or it should have been repealed. now for the first time after weathering the most negative propaganda campaign from within the congress in history and the worst website, we're able to get out what really is happening. >> so you're saying it can only get better based on looking at those two data points. >> i'm saying it will get better. let me tell you what members are going to begin to do. i'm primed for this because members of congress and their
staff had to go on d.c. health link, that's my district. it was one of the four that had a smooth rollout. but this is what i'm getting already from my staff. i'll give you one example that is typical of my staff. a young man in his 20s who now has his health insurance. it is about $75 less than it was before under the federal insurance plan, which is a very good plan, and he does have a larger deductible, but it kicks in only if he goes to the hospital or to the emergency room. now, he's young, so that's not likely to happen. and that's what we're going to see, particularly with many young people on the staffs of members of congress. of course the rest of us old guzzers. >> oh come on now, representative, don't say that. >> who have to go on as well. >> that is the concern is the right mix. do you have enough youth signing
up right now. of course we'll continue to get that data. while i have you, though -- >> let me tell you why i think we do. there are 20,000 members of the staff. what are there, 500 members of congress. most of those are young people. >> okay, there you go. that was quick too, thank you. i want to switch gears to talk about benghazi, that big report in "the new york times." the investigation finding no link between last year's attack and al qaeda. here's darrell issa on "meet the press" and how he reacted to it. take a listen. >> there is a group that was involved that claims an affiliation with al qaeda. now, al qaeda is not a central command and control. it was in fact a loose group that could take general statements and act on them. >> what do you believe, was al qaeda involved or not in this? >> well, look, i sit on the committee and i sat through there for dozens of these or many, perhaps not dozens, hearings. this is what the narrative of the republicans was. this was a deliberate al qaeda
attack planned for 9/11, covered up everywhere from second of state hillary clinton to susan rice. here is what more nuanced and more credible "new york times" report found. first, it was the video. that was central to what was debunked in congress. >> but the report also showed that it was not completely spontaneous. >> it was not spontaneous in the sense that -- by the way, the video was widely seen in benghazi. it was the video -- it wasn't spontaneous in the sense that there were groups unaffiliated, and this is the central point here, unaffiliated with al qaeda. every last one of them. no international groups, no al qaeda. those were the two posts on which the republicans stood and that's been knocked right from under them by the more objective "new york times" report. >> in those meetings and
hearings we're talking about, did you learn anything new from that very extensive report that you had not heard before in your discussions, in your meetings there? >> certainly a new emphasis that the intelligence spent too much time. isn't this the opposite of the republicans, too much time on looking at al qaeda and al qaeda-type actions when that's what wasn't happening in libya and they did not put enough time on the local militias, some of which, by the way, were guarding the americans in benghazi. >> all right. i appreciate your time, congresswoman eleanor holmes norton. you have a great holiday ahead. >> same to you. >> all righty. the minimum wage is going up in more than a dozen states this week. with that momentum, does it have a shot on the federal level and will income inequality fuel the 2014 elections? our strategists will discuss all of that next. do you
to "politics now" where senator ted cruz said he plans to renounce his canadian citizenship. his lawyers are working on the paperwork and in 2014 he hopes to just be an american. cruz was born in calgary, but since his mom is american, he's held dual citizenship. gop rising star says the move does not necessarily of anything to do with presidential aspirations. anthony weiner is making a comeback, at least on facebook. after taking a break from social media in the wake of his two-round sexting scandal, weiner is posting once again he thanked his old campaign team and wrote, quote, what's next? i'll keep you posted on my plans, but i hope we keep the band together, end quote. former president bill clinton will swear in bill de blasio as the next mayor of new york city on wednesday. de blasio ran hillary clinton's senate campaign. this new year's eve in new york, well, new yorker native sonia sotomayor will become the first supreme court justice to push the button, sending the
crystal ball down its pole in times square. it seems when the president gets a few free moments. what does me do? he goes looking for drama, tv drama. "the new york times" saying the president is hooked on "breaking bad" and he's also counting down to the "house of cards" premiere. president obama not the only commander in chief to favor intense entertainment. bill clinton was said to be a fan of the show "24." member, yo, picking him up and holding him against me. it wasn't just about me anymore. i had to quit. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix (varenicline) is proven to help people quit smoking. it reduces the urge to smoke. chantix didn't have nicotine in it, and that was important to me. [ male announcer ] some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. if you notice any of these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of mental health problems, which could get worse while taking chantix. don't take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you develop these,
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[ laughs ] you nearly had us there. canned soup. [ male announcer ] they just might think it's homemade. try campbell's homestyle soup. in two days, some folks will make a lot more money in some cases. january 1st being the day that the minimum wage will be boosted in 13 states from oregon and arizona out west to new jersey and new york, back east and a handful of others are all hiking the minimum wage higher than the national one at $7.25. washington state is going as high as $9.32 and in 2014, 11 more states will consider similar hikes. democrats thinking it's a winning issue as we head into the midterm elections in 2014.
robert zimmerman is a democratic strategist and david avela is the president of go pac. robert, i'll start with you. we know that democrats are making this part of 2014. we go into the midterms here. i want to read something from "the new york times." top democrats see not only a wedge issue that they hope will place republican candidates in a difficult position, but also a tool with which to enlarge the electorate in a nonpresidential election when turnout among minorities and youths typically drop off, end quote. that's a lot of possibilities here, based on that one point of it being a wedge issue. are they right? >> actually they are right, but they're not the democrats, i would say, i'm saying this not just as a democrats, but the democrats are not making this a partisan issue. it's the republicans in the house and the senate who refuse to move on issues like raising the minimum wage or unemployment insurance despite the strong support in the country for those initiatives. they're truly playing politics here. i know both sides always say that, but the reality is this issue has unique consensus in
the country, and the idea that there's not serious negotiation by the republicans as opposed to blanket opposition is the problem. >> but at-risk democrats are looking at 2014. they have a business constituency that's saying, hey, no, this is not a good idea. >> but the reality, richard, is that according to economic policy institute, this would produce $33 billion into the gross domestic product, the gdp, because of the increased spending that would be available and also create potentially up to 300,000 jobs. so this not only pays for itself, it boosts the economy. >> david, do you agree with those numbers? >> well, what we're ultimately talking about here is how do you increase folks' take-home pay. how do you get more money into people's pockets. increasing the minimum wage is one way. there are two other ways. one, quit raising people's taxes. in two days, 19 new taxes and fees will be put on the american people. instead of raising taxes, why don't we look at lowering taxes. why don't we look at lowering
the income -- or getting rid of the income tax. many states still have an income tax, even at the minimum wage level. a second way is look at the state with the highest job growth and also happens to be the state that had the highest weekly wage increase in 2013. it was north dakota. by having more jobs, you put employers in competition to get employees, which makes them increase the benefits package, including wages, that they have to pay folks. >> david, you probably saw this poll. it shows that there's increasing support for recent cbs poll showing 69% of people want to raise the minimum wage and you're a great student of history here. you remember 1996, the gop deciding fighting the battle wasn't worth the political trouble, they okayed the minimum wage increase at that time. do you expect that to happen again? >> in west virginia, we just conducted a survey of voters in
a state that certainly has faced its share of poverty and trying to raise folks up out of poverty and wages. while it did have support, there were ways that voters much preferred or much believed we could create jobs and increase wages than by increasing the minimum wage, things like keeping taxes low, reducing the burdens that they must deal with every day in trying to do their job. >> david, it's not a question -- it's not an either/or option that you're putting on the table and this is where there's room for serious negotiation. for example, on "morning joe" the idea of raising the minimum wage but indexing it to people who were young adults or people head of households versus teenagers. and for that matter, yes, the idea of doing a voucher to help people relocate is certainly an option. but there's no excuse for avoiding -- for ducking the real issue, which is putting more money in people's paychecks, especially the lowest earners. this is where the right wing keeps isolating itself from the
national agenda by opposing efforts to extend unemployment insurance which impacts up to three million people and trying to target those who are most vulnerable in our society, heads of households making minimum wages. >> but it sounds like, david, you're open to a mix as well of solutions. you're not altogether against the minimum wabge action you're offering other solutions too. >> there are better ways of doing it. >> is it either/or or a mix here you're saying? >> there are plenty of studies out there that show an increase in the minimum wage oftentimes hurts employment, hurts job growth. >> that was argued back in the truman days. that was the argument against harry truman. all we're talking about now through inflation is putting minimum wage at what it would be at the truman administration adjusted for inflation. >> great discussion between the two of you. i really appreciate it. david, richard, thank you so much. checking the newsfeed this morning, fear across russia and the world. just 38 days before the winter olympics are set to begin, a
second suicide bombing on a bus in the town of volgogard has killed 17 people. it is 400 miles northeast of sochi and a key transport hub for southern russia. investigators believe the two bombings were connected. formula one driver michael shoe maker is in a medically-induced coma after a serious ski accident in france. he is in critical condition after undergoing brain surgery. although he was wearing a helmet, doctors cannot predict whether he'll recover. he's the most successful formula one driver of all time with a record 81 wins. a new poll shows the war in afghanistan is arguably the most unpopular in u.s. history. support for the war is down to just 17%. 82% oppose it. according to the cnn polling director, opposition for the iraq war never got higher than 69%. while the vietnam war was in progress, no more than six in ten told gallup it was a mistake. kim kardashian, kanye west's
baby girl named north, has some 16 years before she can get behind that wheel but already has an impressive set of wheels. this right here. kardashian posting this photo of a black lamborghini there long side a mini version of the caption, like father, like daughter. something tells me that wasn't from santa. $750,000 car on the left. several hundred on the right. still haven't made plans for new year's eve? how about a dinner for two. it's just $10,000, that's all at empire steak house in new york. here's what it gets you. two points of caviar, salad with poached pears, goat cheese and macadamia nuts. next, lemon sorbet. next is kobe steak and lobster tail. is served with a 2010 bottle of
2014 could finally be the year that president obama makes good on a five-year-old promise to close the guantanamo bay detention center. last week he signed a new defense law that makes it easier to transfer detainees out of gitmo and eight prisoners have been transferred so far this year. that leaves more than 150 detainees today. joining me now, carol rosenburg senior journalist for "the miami herald" who has covered gitmo since it's opening and returned from there just about christmas. carol, is 2014 the year? if not, when do you think that guantanamo bay will be closed? >> boy, richard, it seems impossible to imagine they could accomplish that next year. there's still 158 detainees down there and just six of them on trial. the rest are in different categories of detention. only eight were able to go this year. they did get some legislation that allows them to move some people out maybe more easily,
but congress blocked the one piece that the president needs, which is to be able to take some of them to u.s. soil, put them on trial in u.s. courts or put them in u.s. prisons, and they didn't get that out of congress this year. >> you just got back from guantanamo bay. i want to get a sense of what you learned, who you talked to and what they told you. we were talking about the transference of those eight prisoners that may have changed the mood because before, as we remember, the desperation that was exhibited there as they started that massive hunger strike march 4th. six people there on the hunger strike. a month later it was 84. july 5th, 106 detainees were striking. 45 of them had to be tube fed. finally three got hospitalized. what are the prisoners like right now, are they more hopeful? >> we don't actually know because the military has imposed a blackout on access to information about the hunger strike. they have shut down all transparency on the hunger strike. they didn't like the coverage. they said it was
self-perpetuating so they won't tell us anymore how many people are hunger strike. it had dipped to 11 and risen to 15 when they pulled the plug. you have to think that eight men going home this year has led to some sort of optimism about some of them that they're going to get out of there. >> what did you learn there on the ground? is that something that you discussed, that you brought up? >> what we learned is that the 9/11 trial, the september 11th trial was stalled again. this was supposed to be -- this is the hearing that's going to set up the case for the five men who will face eventually death penalties. >> the mastermind, khalid sheikh mohammed and four others, right? >> that's correct. and what happened is they're setting the stage for the eventual trial and the whole thing just came to a crashing halt because the prosecution wants to determine if one of them is sane enough to stand trial. he was extremely disruptive. so we learned less about what's going on in the prison due to that plaqueoblackout by the mil and more about the problems that they're having getting these two
death penalty trials started down there. >> thank you so much, i appreciate your time. carol rosenberg, i appreciate your time. you can find more about her visit, carol rosenberg's report by going to miamiherald.com/guantanamo. carol, thank you so much. >> thank you. two former "today" show co-hosts are celebrating some birthdays this last monday before the new year. matt lauer and meredith vieira. today's tweet of the day comes from meredith. she says, quote, today i turn 60. birthday suit is worn and wrinkled but still a comfortable fit. just need to take it in a bit. have a great day, end quote. there's a new form of innovation taking shape.
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in ways you never thought possible. welcome to what's next. comcastnbcuniversal. [ bell ringing ] >> it is the next to last trading day of 2013 and the first half hour of trading stocks mixed right now, up 12 and change. the stock market has been leading the economic recovery. it's been a great year for our
401(k)s and iras. the dow has gained 26%. the s&p 500, 29%. and the tech heavy nasdaq is up a whopping 34%. now, the housing market is also roaring back. today's headline in "the wall street journal," home prices back at peaks in some areas. and the job market has been picking up steam with the unemployment rate down nearly 1% this year and more than two million jobs added. here with what to expect in the year ahead is cnbc contributor ron insauna and peter moresi. let's start with the stock market. great numbers. for the average investor looking at this right now, can they expect more room to run here in 2014? more green? >> richard, i think you can although i think 2014 will be a year of transition where the market gets comfortable with the
transition to stronger growth, higher interest rates, which may spark a correction of some magnitude in 2014. and we may have to shift our sights on some of the market leaders like consumer stocks, like interest sensitive stocks to more deep cyclicals on wall street that will benefit from a later kind of cycle play in the financial markets. but generally i'm still a long-term cyclar. there could be more volatility next year than we saw this year. >> peter, what should the average investor be worried about when looking at these great green arrows? >> it's unlikely we'll see more than a 20% gain again. where we do see gains, it's going to be more targeted, as the economy adjusts to higher interest rates but yet stronger
growth. they can easily make the mistake of riding last year's winners and neglecting the fact that, for example, commodities are lower right now, gold is low. so my feeling is that the average investor needs to be very careful about looking backward to go forward. most folks are better off buying into a broad-based mutual fund and riding that most of their lives, just putting in a little bit each year. i've been doing that the last 30 years with an s&p index fund. >> and look where you're at. >> and i have some specialized holdings in commodities and high tech in in addition because i can afford to but i wouldn't recommend it for my godmother in texas. >> if your godmother is listening, she should not do that then. ron, let's move to unemployment. we'll get the december numbers on friday. more than two million jobs were added with the job market picking up steam in the later half of the year. will that continue? >> i suspect it should. in fact particularly as we get later into the economic cycle, hiring tends to pick up.
we're starting to see companies from around the world bring manufacturing work to the united states because energy costs, particularly natural gas, which is such a big input in manufacturing, is so low relative to the rest of the world. so i do think that that's a bright spot for the u.s. economy, this energy boom that's going on is leading to a manufacturing renaissance. you mentioned housing is more of a tailwind than a headwind although we'll have to see what higher interest rates do to the housing sector. i think employment should improve. there would have to be a monumental setback of some kind for employment not to improve, like rates spiking or china tanking, an i think that may be a possibility in fact with china, but generally i think the unemployment situation should improve still beyond what we saw this year. >> peter, i know you don't watch the unemployment rate at all here. when do you expect it to go up or down, the percentage? >> the most important thing is that we'll create more jobs in 2014 than we did 2013. we'll have more growth and we'll have more jobs. that should bring the unemployment rate down as economists say other things remaining the same, but they
won't, because a lot of those people that left the labor force will start to come back as conditions improve. you know, we could have the unemployment rate go from 7% to 7.3% and have a dramatically better job market simply because we're creating 250,000 to 300,000 a month instead of 150 to 200 and folks are coming back because things are getting better. the unemployment ralt isn't necessarily the right number to focus on. more importantly will be the percentage of adults employed and i expect to see that improve. >> all right. ron, let's move to you on this. since we're talking about jobs, we've got to talk about housing because with jobs we've got better housing theoretically. and when we look at that, home prices up 9.4% from a year ago. prices back to precollapse levels in some cities, but mortgage rates, as you were mentioning earlier, you were talking about that, about 1% higher than a year ago. could that hurt the gains in the housing market, the momentum we've got right now? >> there's a strange kind of sticker shock going on and
prices have appreciated off remarkably low levels in 2009 and '10 and in areas as "the wall street journal" pointed out that never really got that hot, prices of peaking now. so there's a little decline in affordability as interest rates and prices both go up together. but if you look at 4.5% mortgage, at any other time in history, we'd be cheering that. the biggest problem with housing still is credit availability. not the cost of money. lending standards are too tight and with the price going up, with rates going up, it's making it that much harder for people to apply for new mortgages and we've seen that in recent data. so i think housing can be a tailwind and we'll see what the fed does about it if rates get out of hand on the upside. but right now i think there's a little bit of sticker shock that should, if more jobs are created, begin to wear off. >> peter, to you. if you're a buyer or if you're a seller quickly here, get into their minds is this the year? >> if you're a buyer, they should move in if they can. in the places where housing prices are sort of peaking
again, those are areas where the fundamentals in the local economy remain very strong and the neighborhoods that are peaking tend to be the most desirable ones. for example, in washington, d.c., you know georgetown. in manhattan, the upper west side and so forth. so i wouldn't be frightened by these prices. i think the most important thing to look at when it comes to affordability is, is the economy growing of the a growing. and by the second half of this year i expect the economy to be growing robustly. >> janet yellen expected to be confirmed by the senate next month to be the next head of the federal reserve. what can we expect from her as she takes control and takes a look at all of this economic data? >> well, it's interesting. ben bernanke has started the tapering process so she'll carry that on. but i do think she'll be cognizant of several different things. number one, will real estate continue to improvement two, will the underemployment rate come down. three, will inflation move back up toward the fed's target. i think those three factors will dictate policy from here.
and the fed will either taper more or dial back on it unless they get the results they want. >> our economic crew there, peter morici, ron insana, thanks so much, guys. that wraps up this hour of "jansing & co." thomas roberts is up next. stick around. eing your own boss! and my customers are really liking your flat rate shipping. fedex one rate. really makes my life easier. maybe a promotion is in order. good news. i got a new title. and a raise? management couldn't make that happen. [ male announcer ] introducing fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex.
we begin this hour with developing news. a second bombing in as many days in the same city in southern russia with the start of the olympics now just weeks away. this is a major concern. hi, everybody, good morning. i'm thomas roberts. those security concerns in russia, that tops our agenda for you this morning. so far no one has claimed responsibility for the twin attacks that killed at least 30 people. the target of the latest attack, a crowded trolley bus in volgograd. its roof was blown off by the suicide bombing. this follows sunday's blast. you've seen this by now, it was all caught on tape at the city's railway station. people there are absolutely terrified.
[ speaking foreign language ] russians are certainly on high alert as the country is trying to figure out what's going on. the president deploying additional special forces to the south. >> how do you stop a single islamist bomber, a single suicide bomber who's determined to blow himself up or herself up. we begin our coverage with jim maceda. he joins me live from moscow, which is about 400 miles from the city of of volgograd. explain to us what we do know so far about what the police leads as to who could have caused these bombings? >> reporter: hi, thomas. first of all, russian officials have declared a state of emergency in volgograd while officials have said this morning's bus bomb was carried out by a male