tv Morning Joe MSNBC June 17, 2015 3:00am-6:01am PDT
ladies and gentlemen my father donald j. trump. ♪ [ cheers and applause ] i'm just really happy right now. a billionaire vantity candidate, taking the escalator to the white house! >> hey, only losers walk! presidents take air force one. >> air force one. good morning, everyone. welcome. >> well, he did it. >> yeah.
people said he wasn't going to do it. >> he finally officially did it. >> he did it. >> everyone thought oh, this is another, maybe like -- >> a tease. >> what happens to at pointment? >> a lot of money involved here. >> boy, we have -- we have bernie sanders foldpoll. now we have the poll earlier in the week. now we have another. bernie is within ten in new hampshire. >> casey hunt is here. >> bernie is burning up new hampshire. he can take it across the country? >> i don't know. maybe. >> that's the answer. all right. donald trump announced candidacy for the republican nomination yesterday. he did so before supporters at the tower that bears his name in a colorful speech, full of his signature bra vadvado.
>> i will be the greatest jobs president that god ever created. i tell you that. >> the american dream is dead. but if i get elected president, i will bring it back. bigger and better and stronger than ever before and we will make america great again. our country is in serious trouble. we don't have victories anymore. when did we beat japan at anything? they send their cars over by the millions. and what do we do? when was the last time you saw a chevrolet in tokyo? i'm using my own money. i'm not using the lobbyists. i'm not using donors.
i don't care. i'm really rich. and by the way, i'm not even saying that in a -- that's the kind of mindset, that's the kind of thinking you need for this country. >> and trump didn't shy away from going after the rest of the gop field. >> there's been no crowd like this, and i can tell you some of the candidates they went in, they didn't know the air conditioner didn't work. they sweated like dogs. they didn't know the room was too big because they didn't have anybody there. how are they going to beat isis? i don't think it's going to happen. you looked at bush. it took him five days to answer the question on iraq. he couldn't answer. he didn't know. i said he is intelligent. then i looked at rubio, he was unable to answer the question. is iraq a good thing or a bad thing. he didn't know. he couldn't answer the question.
how are these people going to lead us? bush is totally in fair of common core. i don't see how he can possibly get the nomination. he's weak on immigration. he's in favor of common core. how the hell can you vote for this guy? you just can't do it. >> he's in. what do you think? >> i think a lot of people in the media may scoff at it see it as a p.r. stunt. he has a lot of money. he doesn't give a damn what anybody thinks about him and he doesn't play by the rules. that could be a very dangerous combination or for some candidates out there. he's going to say whatever's on his mind. you know, somebody is up there stiff on the stage and trump just keeps jabbing at him. >> it's not like he's carefully strategizing. he says what he thinks that may impact the other candidates. his comments about mexico drew the most backlash. take a look at this.
>> these with the best and the finest. when mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best. they're not sending you. they're not sending you. they're sending people that have lots of problems and they're bringing those problems with us. they're bringing drugs. they're brug crime. they're rapists and, some i assume are good people. >> so casey, you were there. first of all, did you see a response to that? i'm hearing a lot about that sound bite. what else? >> that drew the most criticism as far as the thing that came the closest to the line. that was difficult. i will say that as far as his role in this process, he does appeal to the republican party that many other republicans even in the establishment side want to apail to. mitt romney ran rump robo call. they showed scott walker
winning. it's not as though he's not being included in this conversation. but i will say yesterday at the announcement, trump tower, classic setting for donald trump. >> reporter: like everything else trump, his announcement was a spectacle. held at trump tower, locked down by dozens of security officers, supporters allowed in only after they put on a t-shirt. >> can you all vote in america? >> yes. >> can you vote in america? >> no, i can't. >> besides, trump's name and face were everywhere. his new cologne summing up the message. >> i'm going to ask you, he has this cologne called success. can i try it? >> sure. >> wondering what you think it smells like. >> wow. smells like, you know attraction. >> what does it smell like? >> success.
>> money. >> after the event trump was getting on a signature private plane to fly to iowa where success usually takes a little humility. >> because a lot of people say he'll never run. number one, he won't want to give up his lifestyle. >> you're right about. that but i'm doing it. >> i'm doing it. >> you know, you've seen this in the campaign trail. again, you'll have everybody ridicule him and say oh, he's -- this is just a joke. this is blah blah, blah. then he'll go to south carolina. and he'll have a bigger crowd every other established candidate. then he'll go to new hampshire and have a bigger crowd. i don't know about iowa. i think he's done pretty well in iowa. people want him out there too. like he said, the proof is in the pudding that if people think he's going to get 1% and crawl away with his head between his tail they probably haven't run.
>> i think whether or not this translates into people saying they'll vote for him, i mean, he has fallen back a little bit in the polls. i'm not sure the republican party this time around unlike maybe in 2012 is willing to tolerate anything that comes across as unseriousness. i think -- or incompetence, if you will. but he could very well end up on that debate stage. and he could push off somebody like lindsey graham or john kasich. i think not planning for that on the part of any of the other candidates would not be smart. >> could trump trip up the gop? >> you can make a lot of establishm establishment people very nervous. but there are, though throughout history, bigger than life people, colorful people that make a splash on the stage. >> there are. i mean perot is the great
example. you had a billionaire with a populous message. that was different year it seems to me. and you had someone, his celebrity came not really from the entertainment complex as much as from the business complex. perot came from this straight talking western thing. the pattern here is populous candidates burn brightly and they figure out what is working in the message. they take it and incorporate it in the populous candidate. >> ross perot is the best example in '92. >> he was a much more substandive example too. he raised a specific idea that generated other people to think about the ideas. can we stipulate for the purposes of this conversation that donald trump will never be president of the united states. that his lethal danger to the republican party we just showed it. and we're in on it. we just gave him five minutes, five minutes. >> then -- you know what?
we just gave him five minutes when jeb bush, didn't' announce? let's ask michael steel. what do you think of this latest edition to the republican field, michael. >> >> all i can say is i have my popcorn and lounge chair and i'm ready. this is going to be one of those rides that i think joe and both casey touched on those aspects that are going to matter to the gop. there is real concern within rank and file establishment leaders that this becomes a circus this becomes more about the cult of personality than actually running for the presidency of the united states. donald trump's speech yesterday if, that is the approach that he's going to take, it will lend itself to that personality. >> following up on what casey said, he is popular among some rank and file and gop and to follow up on mike's question, yeah we gave him five minutes. he is in new hampshire. he is near the top of the polls. he beats a lot of people that
are more established politically and play by the political rules in washington. i just don't know. i think there may be a big protest this year that might actually make him a player. >> and that is the key point, joe. that's what has a lot of people nervous. it goes to the fact that he has, despite the polls, the most recent polls, it shows auto% of the voters say they would not vote for donald trump. there is a significant base for him to work from. and that base will light us up and we'll be excited about him. it's a real problem going into the early debates if he's on that stage. the argument will be framed by donald trump, not by jeb bush or marco rubio or others. >>, so you know, mike just asked the question, will donald trump ever be president? you can ask the same question of bernie sanders. will bernie sanders ever be president? on the democratic side, bernie sanders may not be elected president. but he could cause a front
runner who is supposed to be elected president some sleepless nights and dangerous days. >> take a look at what is happening in vermont and wonder if hillary clinton should be getting worried about bernie sanders. that's the question that political experts are asking after a second poll shows the vermont senator surging in new hampshire. the latest from suffolk university which gives clinton a 10 point lead over sanders among democrats. there is a clear gender gap however, with sanders trailing clinton by nearly 20% with female voters and another poll by the morning paper shows sanlders narrowing the gap against clinton in the granite state. >> so we're talking about ten points. >> look at his crowd on the campaign trail. >> the crowds are absolutely -- >> 3,000 people expected this saturday. >> his crowds are absolutely massive. i mean yes in his neighboring state. but when he started out he wasn't within ten points of hillary clinton in new
hampshire. hillary clinton was light years ahead. >> she was -- you can tell me out here. he was least 25 or 30 points behind hillary clinton six or seven weeks ago. but new hampshire i don't know about colorado. we just referenced colorado. new hampshire is made for bernie sanders. >> yeah. >> and his message is made from the new hampshire democratic primary. and he will despite whatever happens to him in new hampshire whether he wins or loses, he will succeed. he already has succeeded to a point in pushing hillary clinton to the point where she's going to have to address substance abuse from specific issues. she's going to have to address them. she's going to have to address the trade package. she's going to have to address several specific issues. >> and we're already seeing team clinton start to try to spin these early states. you know saying no one ever won iowa by more than, you know -- no one ever got more than 49% in iowa, et cetera. there is risk built into this early primary system for her. they know it. and while it's, you know,
arguable bernie sanlders is-- sanders is never going to be president of the united states, it doesn't mean he'll be a major player. >> it doesn't mean sanders wouldn't do very well in iowa, another populous state. >> they play a huge role. >> we're talking about a ten point spread right now, way out. but, you know, if hillary keeps quiet on trade or stumbles around, keeps quiet on other issues, you could have a protest vote. and if hillary is struggling to get past bernie sanders and about socialists from vermont and iowa and new hampshire that doesn't make the donor class, that doesn't make the chattering classes any easier on her abults. >> politics, like nature, of course a vacuum. if you think of the modern era really started in '76 when carter made the caucuses, there
have been eight presidential elections since then. in every one of them, the eventual nominee of the challenging party has had a real primary. reagan and bush in '80. monday-dale and hart in '84. bush and dole and dukakis and jackson on the democratic side, clinton, come back kid, remember, lost new hampshire. all the way through. so it's a sign that she -- >> and bush got routed in new hampshire on mccain. >> yeah. so one more story cyber espionage. no longer a stuff of gamesmanship between countries or rogue hackers. now the st. louis cardinals are fully cooperated with an fbi investigation into whether someone in the organization breeched a data base of the houston astros. >> wow. >> the commissioner cautions it's too early to know the whole story which was first reported by "the new york times".."
>> in addition to what happened, it's who did it? who knew about it? is the organization responsible? is an individual responsible? because i don't know exactly what the folks are and i don't think the person who wrote the time story knows exactly what the facts are that it really doesn't make sense for me to speculate as to how serious a problem i have. >> all right. so let's bring in that person who wrote the "times" story, michael schmitt joins us. michael, tell us about the attack. what exactly was compromised. what do we know so far? >> basically the astros have a network that house the secrets about the players, scouting reports, statistics and guys in the cardinals front office knew about this. they knew the pass words that astros guys were using because they used to work on their team. so the cardinals went on to their network found those pass words, went to the astros network, used them, went in and
took the data. >> you say guys plural. is there more than one lone hacker? is this organization wide? >> we know the fbi is looking at more than one person and the initial investigation looked at the entire front office in general. as we know in these cases, the question is how high did it go? with the lower level guys for doing it for folks on high who knew about it or just freelancing? deflate-gate and flygate that, is the question. how high did it go? >> michael, part of the shock within major league baseball and there is shock within major league baseball, is the fact that cardinals are among the most revered of organizations. and bill dewitt is the one that elected the new commissioner. so what would people be telling you or what would people tell --
what are people telling you about the possible ramifications when the fbi gets to the bottom of this? is this a possibility that people will be banned from baseball for life? >> well, this is really the first challenge for manford. he took over from selig earlier this year. he had an easy time so far. fit comes out that indeed the cardinals were doing that, he'll have to do something. will he find the team? you know, i don't think he'll throw phil dewitt out of the game. i don't think he was involved in this. but maybe folks in the lower ends of the front office get thrown out. i don't noechlt really depends on who gets charged. but it will be challenging for him. he probably will have to do something to send a message to the other teams in the game. >> all right. michael schmitt, thank you very much. still ahead on "morning joe," bob costas will join his thoughts on the federal investigationst st. louis cardinals. plus, our political roundtable with hugh hewitt and david
axelrod. on tomorrow's show, donald trump himself will be on the heels of the 2016 announcement. on friday, martin o'malley joins us for his first national tv interview since hillary clinton jumped into the race. but first, here's bill karins with a check on the forecast. bill? >> mika and joe, tropical storm bill did make land fall in texas. still moving through the lone star state. it's been an underachiever. we have had some problems some significant flooding and a lot of water in areas of texas. fwhaut but that water receded. the storm itself is now located near waco, texas. it is heading to the dallas-ft. worth area. that's where the worst morning commute will be and where the worst weather will be. flash flood watches go all the way up into the ohio valley. heaviest rains near waco, texas. we still have a chance of isolated tornadoes. that tornado watch goes until about 8:00 a.m. this morning. and as far as the heavy rain it's moving up i-35 in between
waco and is now arriving in the dallas-ft. worth area. i also expect significant airport delays out of the airport there. how much rain expected next 48 hours? anywhere between three to six inches with isolated totals up to possibly eight inches. notice the computers are hinting at the band of heavy rain late tonight into tomorrow morning around tulsa, xepdextending into springfield and joplin. it is lighter in st. louis and the ohio valley. the forecast improved a little bit for the ohio valley. the flooding shouldn't be as bad. look at the temperatures today in the southeast. 97 to 98 degrees from atlanta all the way down through north florida. so careful there. record heat possible. and also in the southwest the heat is on, too. so the storm itself is weakened down to a tropical depression. we're watching the dallas-ft. worth area and maybe an isolated tornado or two. we're slowly seeing an improving forecast as the storm continues to weaken. leaving with you new york city thunderstorms yesterday have
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♪ time to take a look at the morning papers. nbcnews.com, a federal judge sentenced a man who scaled the white house fence and got all the way to the east room last year. 43-year-old army veteran omar gonzalez got 17 months in prison followed by three years of supervised release. gonzalez has been in prison since the incident and pleaded guilty to entering a restricted building while carrying a deadly weapon and assaulting a secret service agent. "the new york times," the military is going to use a lot more drone pilots than they can train because of the stress and burnout associated with the job. it may also be because of pay. one retired official notes that military operators can earn four times their salary working for private defense contractors. >> the atlanta journal
constitution and food and drug administration is giving food companies three years to remove trans fats completely from processed foods. some companies have stopped using the attives already. but they can still be found in many products. the fda estimate that's change could prevent 20,000 heart attacks and 7,000 deaths from heart disease every year. >> and "the new york daily news," first lady michelle obama met prince harry for tea at kensington palace yesterday. she kicked off a two day visit promoting the campaign to improve girls' education and better support for military families. the first lady also met with the british prime minister david cameron and his wife. variety 8.1 million viewers tuned in to watch the shocking season five finale of "game of thrones" on sunday. it was the show's largest audience ever, up 14% from both the previous last week and last season's finale despite going up against the nba finals in most of the country.
"game of thrones" expected to be back in early 2016 without john snow. >> anybody see this show yet? everybody talks about it. you have watched? >> i don't get it. >> i read all the books. >> whoa! >> don't say that again. >> okay, coming up -- >> a lot of people watching it swear by it. >> i don't watch it regularly. i watch parts. >> i can't even imagine watching it. sorry. >> a lot of people died. >> yeah. there is a lot of death and destruction. >> okay. >> coming up jeb bush in a way you'll likely never see him before. also ahead -- >> do you find it hard to be brave?
>> vice news profiles child soldiers on the front lines in afghanistan. what the country looks like as american forces head for the door. that's just ahead on "morning joe." can't find a single thing to wear. will they be looking at my hair? won't be the same without you bro. when it's go, go to the new choicehotels.com. the site with the right room, rewards and savings up to 20% when you book direct. choicehotels.com when a moment spontaneously turns romantic why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use, is the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain
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♪ >> in my two terms as governor i cut taxes every year. i passed the first school statewide system and created 1.3 million jobs the most in the country. so i know we can fix the problems facing our nation. because i've already done it during my eight years in florida. you got to listen to my man jeb. he has lots of experience down south. ♪ he went to miami now he's gone ♪ ♪ his nickname is the white lebron ♪ >> pretty good. how did he do? >> i don't know. >> pretty funny. >> what do you think mike? >> it's a winner. >> i liked it. >> all right. it was jeb bush's first official day on the trail since announcing his canned da sichlt he campaigned in new hampshire and once again he faced
questions about his brother's administration. this time on enhanced interrogation techniques. >> quick yes or no. gitmo remain open? >> yes. >> if we need it enhancement interrogation? >> i don't think that's necessary. >> you don't why? >> because i don't think we need it. >> maybe after 9/11? >> i think it was appropriate at the time given what we -- you know, the uncertainty. we were attack. it was appropriate and appropriate to change the policies once we had enough history. >> so, before i read rich lawrie, what do you think of the answer? >> it is a surprise? it is. i'm surprised. i don't know if it is. i am. >> i assume he would say that no, the cia officers who were involved in it should not be prosecuted but that's been the debate centered on the hill. >> what about just saying we
don't torture? >> that was reflected in his answer there on that question that you just raised. there is debate on the hill about what happened at that time. >> all right. let's get to the must read. here's what rich lowry writes in the national review. bush's freshly unveiled jeb logo may be punch writed with a question mark about whether he can excite republican voters in a field that is as large and talent the as any in memory. the mitt romney path to nomination is not available to him. he can show up with a fund-raising advantage and a resume and expect to grind down all the other candidates. romney can do that in 2012 against an unprepared rick perry and undisciplined newt gingrich and unfanneded rick santorum. bush is running against a field
that has a have dozen candidates that would have been in the top tier last time around. >> michael steel what do you think? >> well, i think there is some truth to that. >> i think that's what bush has got to prove. that he is top tier and that he's the guy that everyone is going to have to deal with. i think -- i go back to it joe, that first moment on the stage in august will be a defining moment for the bush campaign. they'll see whether or not he is and has what it takes to be the leader of the party. right now that space is all over the place. the guys like ted cruz and rand paul. then you'll have scott walker get into this race, chris christie. that will also change the dynamics. so bush has a heavy load to pull here. >> i think i agree with
especially the last line. hillary clinton has a little candor and spontaneity, a dash of joe biden's tell it like it is impulse, she could be a captivating candidate. instead, she's conducting a classic front-runner campaign rhetorically focused on the general election even while intent on finessing any issues that might give her democratic rivals an opening. her campaign isn't about her political aspirations, but rather the hopes and dreams of every day american families. but so far, at least, her basic message reduces to. this your real choice is me or one of the republicans. and perhaps that's all it will take. that's what nine out of ten politician was do. and, yet, given her potential, clinton is selling herself short." >> what do you think? >> i think she s i think that we saw her in new hampshire last time around. and she was incredible.
there is a stymie question about money and e-mails that she ought to just get out there and get beyond if there is nothing there. and for some reason she's in a box. and that person's not coming out. maybe it doesn't matter as this writer suggests. right now she is selling herself short. >> isn't she running on a different clock than every other candidate? >> yeah, except that in the -- once she gets on to the big stage, i would think she would want to be a little bit more -- everyone is talking about being roughed up. but isn't that what makes you better and what makes you more nimble and makes your brain more sort of wrapped around the process and into it and engaged? one thing i'll say about this election cycle in general is the demand seems to be for raw, unfiltered, real type of moments. i think that they're trying very hard to create that with her. you know, they're using her --
>> they're manufacturing it. >> well, you know i mean i'm not sure i'm going that far. i think that's what they're trying to create. i think that her challenge, as somebody who is known and n. so many ways and who is so resistant. she talks about how she tried to create her own zone of privacy. that is really hard in this new social media age in which we live. >> what do you think? >> i agree. >> okay. still ahead, our next guest says the middle east is falling apart. but it's not america's fault. former white house adviser philip gordon says the first step for u.s. policy is to admit there was no easy fix. he joins us next along with former cia director michael hayden. we'll be right back.
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titled, the middle east is falling apart and the united states is not to blame. it's not an easy fix. does that summit up? >> that's true. the falling apart part is obvious to anyone who watches the news and listens to you in the morning and see what's is happening throughout the region. but the more important part and what i wanted to add was the america is not to blame. and there is no easy fix. i think what yearou're seeing is especially as we get closer in the political season, because it's falling apart, there must be something america has been doing wrong and we should do something radically differently. in a way, i was reminding people
it's not just our policies, in fact, it's not mainly our policies that are responsible for these historic shift that's you're seeing in the region, and we should be very careful not to assume that we should do things radically differently. i think we've seen the results. i mean they decide because there is a problem in the middle east we need to transform the region. and that can actually prove more costly than what we're doing now. >> general hayden, isn't that similar to what general rumsfeld was quoted as saying recently about concerns about even going into iraq and nation building and trying to take over too much? >> i think the secretary's comments echo what he just said. let me sign up with philip's analysis of the situation. i've been using the word techtonic shifts for a year now. i think he's spot on about the
melding of the old borders and about the sunni-shia war. we have a right to defend ourselves. we have a right to contain. this we also have a responsibility to try to shape it. but i agree with philip. our tools here are very indirect and distant. >> mr. gordon let me ask you in terms of who has a right to what. do the american people do you think, have a right to be told by the president of the united states that we are going to be involved in this for many, many years? people seem to be thinking because of our attention span culture that, you know, we can go and get isis and knock them in and out three months, everything is going to be okay in arabia, egypt, jordan but it's going to be a long time before that region simmers down. >> absolutely. that's why i made this point about there being no easy fix. nobody should be under any illusion that there is something the united states can do you know, now or the next six months
or next 18 months or, frankly in, the first year of a new term, whoever the president might be. that is going to deal with these things. you know, what is striking to me in this debate is when you listen to the critics and, you know, you'll see everywhere throughout the papers on tv people are saying that, you know president obama the administration has been a massive failure and we need to do it differently to fix it. when you listen to what they propose, in most cases it's not hugely different. there are some marginal tactical things. but there are certainly, you know, they're talking about historic changes. couple of the tweak that's are being proposed by even the sharpest critics are not going to fundamentally change those trends. so, yes, you're right. this is going to be us with for a long time. >> john meachum? >> general i'm wondering given what we've seen with putin and russia over the last year or so, when you were in office, did you all foresee this level of great power, gamesmanship coming back to the region or is this
something that you weren't necessarily expecting? >> and this refers to the middle east or ukraine? >> middle east. >> i don't think we did. and the asia wakening and what that did to hasten the borders gave them an opening that didn't exist since they were kicked in and out 1973. i'll disagree with philip a little bit. i think our light hand during that period did give the russians more space to re-enter the region. john, you have to really understand here. russia is not a resurgent power. it's a relaunchist power. tools they have to really influence the situation are fairly weak and, frankly, they're the jetsons of the 20th century. they're not the product of current russian power. >> michael steel? >> so i guess the question that a lot of americans have and
we've touched on it a little bit, so how do we go forward from here? what is that strategy? what should we be looking for as this presidential debate continues to unfold from the candidates? what level of honesty should we have in this debate? general? >> yeah i'll start. i think they have to agree with philip's analysis. iraq is gone. syria is gone. lebanon is likely gone. let me just throw libya in there as well. they aren't coming back. so our policy on iraq, that is going nowhere. we really have to get involved with regard to a whole reordering of the area. philip is right. our tools here are limited. i think we have to begin with that fundamental truth. these countries aren't coming
back. >> candidates on both sides need to be honest with the american people and not stand up and present what they say is going to fix iraq and fix syria and put the region back together. especially if that means a large amount of american resources which has huge cost and unintended consequences. i'm not saying there is nothing we can do. we have real interests in the middle east regarding terrorism defending our allies, nonproliferation, energy. and there are things we can and should do. but we need to show a real sense of humility as we go about protecting the interests. >> before we go there is a deadline weeks away on the iran talks. and there is a top senator that scrapped the deal at this point. what do you make of what's going on from what we can glean after the status of the negotiations? >> mika, i i was stunned
yesterday by secretary kerry saying the iranians don't have to come clean about what is called cmds. i was stunned. because about 50, 55 days ago on pbs he told judy woodrough thatuff that was a precondition for an agreement. we have to find out. there will not be agreement unless we find out. and now when he said that, i said this is going to be really interesting. because the iranians are not going to come clean. >> right. >> and now we conceded that it appears to the iranians. that makes me frightened about the parameters of the agreement we seem to be moving towards. >> do you think it will be important to walk away? if necessary? >> yeah. we have gone from a position that says no agreement is better than a bad agreement. and i'm afraid right now our overall position is any agreement is better than no
agreement. that puts iranians in a position of power. that is a really bad place. >> general hayden thank you very much. philip gordon, thank you as well. still ahead on "morning joe," we'll turn back to politics. chuck todd and mark halperin joins the conversation. plus, we'll talk about the prison supervisors that helped two prison inmates escape. what the husband said about visiting his wife behind bars. "morning joe" is coming right back. because hydraulic fracturing technology is safely recovering lots more oil and natural gas. supporting millions of new jobs. billions in tax revenue... and a new century of american energy security. the new energy superpower? it's red, white and blue. log on to learn more. the citi double cash card. it's a cash back win-win. with 1% when you buy and 1% as you pay. with two ways to earn on purchases,
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we want to update you on that balcony collapse in berkeley california. six people have died. all of them current or recent university students. seven more injured. five of the students were from ireland here in the states on temporary work visas. now begins the investigation about why the structure failed. the city red tagged access to that balcony and three others in the building forbidding access. >> the search for the two escaped inmates in new york, the hunt is all but gone cold with no fresh leads in four days. now the husband of joyce mitchell says through his attorney, "there is no way i'm
standing behind her." lyle mitchell visited his wife in jail yesterday but his attorney says it was only to ask a lingering question not a show of support. in fact, he believes he may have been a target himself. but his wife's attorney has called allegations she may have wanted the murderers to kill her husband baseless. we'll have more on. that. donald trump is a candidate for 2016. and comes out swinging against other republicans in the field. and which household name does he want as his running mate? plus, brand new polls just crossed on swing states for 2016. which candidate gives him the toughest race in florida, ohio, and pennsylvania? and it may be the modern day version of steeling signs. bob costas joins us to discuss the hacking investigation that is rocking the world of baseball. we'll be right back.
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back in 1999 when thinking about running for reform party candidate, you said you would consider oprah for vice president. >> what can i tell you she's on the short list. she is great. she is talented. she's a friend of mine. she's a good person. i think we would win easily, actually. >> welcome back to "morning joe." mike barnicle, casey hunt michael steel also with us and joining the conversation, managing editor of bloomberg politics, mark halperin. and in washington, nbc news political director and moderator of "meet the press," chuck todd. good to have you all onboard. does he trip up the gop? if so how? donald trump announced his
candidacy for the republican nomination yesterday. did he so before supporters of the tower that bears his name in a colorful speech full of his signature brevado. >> i will be the greatest jobs president that god ever created. i tell you that. >> the american dream is dead. >> bring it back! >> but if i get elected president, i will bring it back bigger and better and stronger than ever before and we will make america great again. our country is in serious trouble. we don't have victories anymore. when did we beat japan? at anything? they send their cars over by the
millions. and what do we do? when was the last time you saw a chevrolet in tokyo? i'm using my own money. i'm not using donors. i don't care. i'm really rich. i'll share. that and by the way, i'm not even saying that in a bragging -- that's the kind of mindset, that's the kind of thinking you need for this country. >> and trump did not shy away from going after the rest of the gop field. >> there's been no crowd like this. i can tell you some the candidates they went in, they didn't know the air conditioner didn't work. they sweated like dogs. how are they going to beat isis? i don't think it's going to happen. you looked at bush, it took him five days to answer the question
on iraq. he couldn't answer the question. he didn't know. i said is he intelligent? then i looked at rubio. he was unable to answer the question. is iraq a good thing or a bad thing? he didn't know. he couldn't answer the question. how are these people going to lead us? bush is totally in favor of common core. i don't see how he can possibly get the nomination. he's weak on immigration. he's in favor of common core. how the hell can you vote for this guy? you just can't do it. >> but it was perhaps his comments about mexico that drew the most backlash. >> these are the best and the finest. when mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best. they're not sending you. they're not sending you. they're sending people that have lots of problems and they're bringing those problems with us. they're bringing drugs. they're bringing crime. they're rapists and some, i
assume, are good people. >> all right. let's pick this apart. i'll start with chuck todd. i want to get michael steel's -- and mark halperin to follow up. chuck, how does he impact the field and what do you make of his rollout? by the way, everyone is leading it with and interested in it. people chuckle. but should they chuckle too hard? >> look, i think i feel bad for the rest of the republican field. you know, it's interesting about him is that behind the scenes you have a party apparatus. you have candidates who hope that he doesn't run, who basically are treating him as the skunk at the garden party. and, you know, who if he standing there on stage next to the next republican nominee and they have to answer that he said on mexico, and remember, we're only four years removed from him being a berther in all of that
nonsense. i think it's a potential to embarrass the future nominee. having him on stage, having to answer. i mean what he said about mexicans was said about the irish 100 years ago. i mean this is standard ways you are prejudice against immigrants. it's a very old way of zriping describing immigrant population when everyone is upset. all of us in the news media have to have that conversation. yes, he is giving voice and anger, channeling some of the anger and frustration out there with some people. but does he deserve the platform? has he earned the platform to be taken as a candidate? i it this burden of proof is on him. i don't think did he any good to prove that he is serious about this. >> you and john got into his
apprentice board room. i saw. that let's show a different one. take a look. >> i'm mark halperin. >> and i'm john heilman. thank you for your time and thank you for being such a fan of our program. >> tremendous show. tremendous success. >> you yourself have a show "the apprentice." >> and "celebrity apprentice". >> so you're running for president. >> i've never done this before. >> you're like 2%, 5% among republicans. >> it hasn't been that easy right? >> on the other hand, some polls you do better than bobby jindal. >> you consider that a kbliment? >> good luck getting on that debate stage. >> oh, boy. >> very nice. >> good access. >> you got great access. good editing, too. how does he trip up the field and impact the field? what questions does he raise? who does he tap into? >> i go into the roller derby met metaphor. he draws big crowds. he has a lot of money. he can start running negative ads now, tens of millions dollars against some other unfortunate republican. he was embraced last time.
mitt romney accepted the endorsement. he's been courted about it republican national committee. manufacture the other candidates are in touch with him. >> mitt romney accepted his endorsement? >> and romney. and he is likely to be on the debate stage. as you saw yesterday, he will in a stream of consciousness fashion go after anyone who he wants to. and i think the party is going to have to grapple with the things he talks about. but also his ability to dominate, as you said, dominate the news any day he wants. that's not true of too many other people in the race. >> you were there. what did you see happening in that room or that announcement space? >> it was a pretty classic, i'm trying to resist using the word trumptastic, i guess i just d everything was donald trump. and jon stewart was on his show saying well i guess i'm going to go on a strip of comedy morphine. the fact that he's jumped in, gives everyone an opportunity to
really, perhaps a little comedy gold. i think mark's point is right on point. he does -- he is somebody who has been embraced by many people in the republican party. not just mitt romney. some of the people in this field, scott walker has been in touch with him. he was on the phone yesterday after his announcement with florida governor rick stot who called -- rick scott whoe called to congratulate him. >> michael steel, do you agree? >> i do. i think in large measure they don't want the noise. but the noise is going to come. as we saw yesterday now the question becomes i would not be surprised if the candidates are asked today. so do you agree with donald trump's assessment of the mexican people who come to this country? and i think that's going to be one of the big environment problems going forward is he is out of the box. he is unpredictable. and this is a field that in many respects once of that level of predictability so that they can
craft and hone their messages. he throws a monkey wrench in all of that. the other piece of it though, mika, he has base support. he has an energy on the ground. there's a lot of what he says is not only resonates within the republican party but outside the republican party. there are a lot of folks who look at the mexican border the way he pronounced it yesterday. and i think that affords him the opportunity to not only be on that stage but to say something that is going to make the party very uncomfortable over the next few months. >> maybe tap into the base. >> the counter case it is makes everybody else on stage look like socrates. it could be a side show but also you could take candidates who would otherwise not than impressive and look that much better by comparison. zbh i'll say in a debate, if trump goes at another candidate and they come at him, they may look like socrates but they may also look like a loser in a bar fight. >> this is the problem.
he doesn't play by a set of rules. and this is why campaigns complain to folks like me off the record but they don't have the guts to criticize him on the record. because they know he's kind of a media bully. you know what i mean? he doesn't -- he plays by his own set of rules. he'll say whatever. he'll go on any platform to say it. and that's why i say look we've all -- >> is that someone who -- >> we all have a responsibility here to say, know, has he earned his way on this stage? >> chuck todd? carson is at the top of the polls. i don't hear you, like you know -- you're not saying that about ben carson. >> he is legitimately trying to run for president. i think he's got putting out an
actual agenda doing policy speeches. look, if this is what trump does and spends the next three months going after -- >> wait. actually, ben carson keeps comparing america to nazi germany, chuck. >> and i think it's something that -- >> i think we should focus on donald trump. >> well, look, i don't want to see the republican primary race or any presidential race turn into a three-ring circus and us, you know sitting there going isn't this great? and look at the shiny metal objects. it's not fair to what is the strongest republican party presidential field in 36 years. >> so there are brand new polls this morning showing that a tightening race for hillary clinton and some of the closely watched battleground states. in florida, senator marco rubio performs the best against clinton of all the candidates, slightly better than jeb bush and better than rand paul. in ohio, clinton is at a great
deficit to governor john kasich. now seven points and n. the key swing state. she's tied there with rand paul and leads bush by a single point. and paul leads clinton in pennsylvania where rubio holds a slight edge as well as governor and governor chris christie comes within two points. >> some interesting debates. who would guess the two florida candidates are behind in florida and everybody would do better in ohio. >> not only that, what about pennsylvania? >> yeah. >> clinton is strongest of the three states i think people would be surprised if you said clinton is strongest in florida as opposed to ohio and pennsylvania. you can't discount it. it looks like rubio is strongest of the republicans shows that you his little bump is working there. and again, you know, the other candidate gets no respect in the
top tier is rand paul. he consistently does well. is always within first of republicans tested against hillary clinton. and yet it is amazing to me he's always seen it as, well there is walker-bush and rubio, then there is paul cruz, and huckabee. paul does surprisingly well in all of the matchups. >> what happened with rand paul on the narrative side? why does he have to be pushed out of that top tier? >> there are four or five candidates, republican candidates who can argue today that they could beat hillary clinton and if you look at these polls and some of the national numbers, she's vulnerable. the challenge is to find someone that can do it. >> why is there a problem if pennsylvania and ohio? that is really surprising. >> i think she is left too much of the middle available forever republicans to move into by running at such a left candidate. those are states that have a lot of conservative voters.
today the only person that can win each of the four states is rand paul. the biggest argument to leave him out is we now have four strong establishment candidates in this race. and establishment candidates win the nomination. he'll never be the establish. candidate. one of the four guys, two of them will emerge. >> they chop each other up. >> but in all likelihood, only one or two of the establishment candidates will come out of new hampshire still alive. >> why do you say that when you have somebody like ted cruz that raises $31 million in the first quarter? i mean this is not -- these are not past years. people have 20 30 $40 million in the bank, they're going to just keep going. >> maybe. although, they may spend it all to try to win iowa and new hampshire and south carolina and not have any left. the other thing is the delegate accumulation. if somebody like rand paul emerges as strong, the establish. is going to rush to somebody to stop him. or ted cruz.
i think that's why you have money in the bank you may still be forced out of the race. >> all right. should hillary clinton be getting worried about bernie sanders? that's the question political experts are asking after a second poll shows the vermont senator surging in new hampshire. the latest on suffolk university which gives clinton just a ten point lead over sanders among democrats. there is a clear gender gap however with, sanders trailing by 20 points with female voters. and another poll about it morning consult also found sanders narrowing the gap against clinton in the granite state. his campaign says more than 3,000 people are expected this saturday at a rally in denver. >> chucked ed totodd, bernie sanders ahead in a couple polls this week. how is the clinton campaign responding? >> by the way, that's new hampshire. iowa is even more of a selected progressive group of voters.
we sit there and say we knew this wasn't going to be easy. they're saying what they were supposed to say. but bernie sand serz gene mccarthy. this isn't anybody that they see as the potential nominee and somehow going to beat her. but he's becoming a very comfortable, progressive protest vehicle and that i think is more dangerous to clinton because the more he pops and if he's popping now, you know, what if it -- what if that -- joe biden may look around and say huh. all right. maybe she's not a jugger not. and maybe i can get in here and get in a little bit late, october, november and grab some of that and be the plausible alternative to hillary clinton. >> and if she goes after him on anything but guns, that's the only thing i've been able to come up with i think it will backfire against her f they try
to drop opposition research on him or criticize his record, i think it will backfire. >> the closer he gets to her the less he can just ignore taking positions on trade votes. >> but what does she say to go after bernie sanders where as much as she's tried to go left he is further to the left and more authentic about it. >> and is there anything that is not authentic genuine or completely out there about what he's saying? i'm trying to think of other kind of fringe candidates that have gotten huge crowds but really did not -- i don't think -- i think he's actually in the pocket. >> unlike howard dean or kucinich who had comparable messages, he is consistent and he doesn't get rattled. >> the man -- >> hey, joe? >> the man is a socialist. and michael steel, that's about as consistent as you get. he is a self-described socialist. nobody can say oh, well he's just going left. >> that's right.
>> no he fully owns that stage. and hillary's probably okay with letting him have it. but the interesting play here for me and you're going to have him on your show later this week is governor martin o'malley who will -- is looking at this and saying i'm sure they're not going to give this to bernie. but if i can get close enough to that, you know, that flame and catch a little bit of that, maybe they look at me as the bernie alternative to hillary. and you see martin beginning the position or trying to position himself in that regard in new hampshire and iowa to be the go-to. if you just can't pull the trigger for bernie because as we've all said, it's not going to happen, i'm the plausible alternative. that's going to be an interesting dynamic as well for hillary to battle those two men to hold her position while the republicans are tearing at her from the other side. >> you know joe you say bernie sanders is a socialist. >> that's what he calls himself. >> i know.
but if you listen to him if, you're in a crowd that is listening to him, he doesn't sound like a socialist. he sounds like someone who is addressing the needs of every day americans as they refer to them now. every day americans. and it works. you can see people's heads nodding in agreement with nearly everything he says. and there is no way that the clinton campaign can do a dump on him. it will horrifically backfire. >> i guess john meachum's cover story in "newsweek," we're all socialists now was prophetic. >> and every other industrialized democracy socialist dozen pretty well. >> okay. >> usa! >> chuck todd, thank you. still ahead on "morning joe," as the trail is cold for the two escaped prisoners. a cold trail. we'll get the latest on the search next in a live report. also, congressman trade gowdy kicks out a fellow republican from a hearing on benghazi.
plus, david axelrod and hugh hewitt will join us for the political roundtable. tomorrow donald trump himself makes the case for his campaign right here on "morning joe." but first bill karins with a check on the forecast. bill? >> we can consider ourselves lucky. the northeast we have the best weather in the entire country. not so good in the southern portion of the country. it's too hot or too wet. talk about first what happened yesterday. tropical storm bill made land fall. we had a lot of problems with the storm surge early yesterday morning, about 2 to 4 to 5 feet at most. then we had the rain that came in behind it. thankfully houston area was relatively spared. only a couple inches. the heaviest totals are heading north into the dallas area and that's where we expect a problem today. dallas-ft. worth up into oklahoma and including tulsa as we go throughout the afternoon. flood watches continue. we're not done with our storm yet. i'd say we're about half way done with what should be the worst of it. and as we go throughout the day to day maybe an isolated tornado or two.
still have to watch you closely from houston northward. but it's the heavy rain that is getting the attention in the dallas area also some gusty winds with that. so by far the worst morning drive out there. it's ft. worth to dallas. later tonight, that weather will get worse across the red river. watch out in tulsa. our computers are hinting a possibility of eight inches of rain. that would cause significant problems in eastern oklahoma. and then the lighter rainfall amounts. it looks like the forecast has improved for new illinois, indiana and ohio. some rain will eventually make it towards d.c. new york, philadelphia late saturday into sunday. and also how about the heat? today will be the hottest day in three years in some spots in the southeast including atlanta. temperatures mid to upper 90s. heat index will feel like 105. so a little much of too much heat or too much rain. just depends on where you are. leaving you a shot of new york city. i guess we're the lucky ones for once. a beautiful day in the middle of the week. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.
you know this prison story is concerning for so many reasons. obviously, we know what happened in the past. but i remember a couple years ago, i think there was a prison break and somebody was in the mountains of california and didn't they hold somebody hostage in their house, something like that? i guess i'm the only one who remembers. >> maybe it was a dream. >> i don't think it was a prison break, i think it was something that started -- >> yeah like san diego. south l.a. a car chase. but up on the sierra nevada. >> yeah. >> couldn't find them for a while. but this rarely happens. if anybody out there knows the answer to this mark was asking how often does this happen? that a murderer escapes a maximum prison. >> and the worst of the worst. >> i can't believe it happens much. >> how do you quantify how bad a murderer is but they have the
worst records ever. >> chances are good -- they have no idea where they're. but if they're leaving on foot, chances are good they're in contact with some people and it's probably not good news in that area. >> the hunt has all but gone cold with no fresh leads in four days according to officials. this comes as joyce mitchell's husband, lyle, visited her in jail yesterday. his attorney says it was only to ask lingering questions not a show of support. joining us now live from dannemora, new york, stephanie gosk who has been covering this story. are investigators going to be questioning lyle mitch billion what he -- mitchell about what he knew about the escape plot? >> yeah they are questioning him. and just to joe's point earlier that, is a huge concern for people in this area and a suspicion that these guys got out, they didn't get their ride because joyce mitchell basically ditched them and that instead they're holding some family hostage. but it's been so many days at this point you would imagine that some family member or
friend would know that a family was being held hostage at this point. as far as this prison goes this is the first time anyone has ever escaped from this maximum security part of the prison. so it doesn't happen that often. now you mentioned lyle mitchell. he is going to be questioned today p his lawyer says he's not been charged and he doesn't expect that he will be charged. >> his wife joyce mitchell is behind bars. accused of helping two convicted murderers escape. allegedly having affairs with both behind prison walls. lyle mitchell's attorney tells nbc news his client is shell shocked. seeing for the first time in public on tuesday mitchell visited his wife in jail. joyce's lawyer said this to reporters. >> he said that he is standing by her. so that's what he told me when i spoke to him. >> but lyle's attorney quickly fired back saying his client told him "nothing could be further from the truth." he says lyle believes richard matt and david sweat may have
killed him if joyce had followed through with the escape plan. jeff doom worked as a prisoner officer for 25 years, 22 in clinton correctional. he thinks joyce mitchell and a failing system are to blame for the historic prison break. >> it's more like a college campus than a prison. >> reporter: after a fight broke out in the jarred on may 31st the superintendent's request for a lockdown was denied by the state's correction office. according to former prisoners officers. >> whether the facility fris is being done we check the bars. we check the cell itself. so those holes if, they existed at that time they would have been found. >> many wondered how prison guards missed the escape and overnight bed checks. the former and current guards tell us that at night it is extremely dark in those cell blocks. they're no longer allowed to use flashlights in the cells and the prisoners are allowed to pull the blankets or clothes over their faces. we reached out to the new york state department of corrections
as well as the governor's office repeatedly and they did not respond to our requests. guys? >> all right. stephanie gosk thank you very much. incredible. we're going to move on now to benghazi. a long time ally of hillary clinton says he didn't write the content in e-mails to the former secretary of state about intelligence in libya. sidney loomenthal told the select committee that intel came from a former top official with the cia that officials reportedly was part of a group looking to do business in the country. committee chairman trey gowdy says he's concerned that bloomenthat will who never visited libya simply acted on behalf of someone who may have only had a financial interest and cast doubt on clinton's claims she didn't solicit the e-mail. >> the largest source of e-mails from her that we received came from one individual. and what we learned today is that that individual had no role
at all in the offering drafting vetting, accumulation of intelligence. he just forwarded it on from someone else to the use of the word unsolicited which i think i heard somewhere there were several instances where she said keep it coming. this is good stuff, greetings from kabul. useful information. so if that's consistent with unsolicited, that -- that's up to y'all. >> many of the questions had to do with ballistics. as far back as the 2008 democratic primaries. so why was i subpoenaed at all before this committee? i am a long time friend of hillary clinton. >> they're also appear to be some fireworks between gowdy and fellow republican congressman darrell isa. you can see the deposition but
moments later he is escorted out by gowdy. the two talk briefly before isa walks away. gowdy says he made him leave because he is not on the select committee. any thoughts? >> well, darrell doesn't look happy. >> no. he doesn't. >> waving his arms as he walks away. good call by trey gowdy. where y. was darrell there? did you get his name in the papers and on tv? he succeeded. >> i don't know. i don't know. coming up, the fbi's investigating the st. louis cardinals for possibly hacking the houston astros data base. this is incredible because the story is about one of the best organizations in baseball and bob costas st. louis bob not a happy man. he's going to explain why if it is true it will not be the last time of espionage in baseball. we'll be right back. ♪ there we go.
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their team. they went on to the network and found the network and took them and took the dat yachlt how high did it go? and with the lower level guys who were doing it for folks on high knew about it? >> that was a new york time reporter earlier on "morning joe." an fbi investigation of the st. louis cardinals, with us now, bob costas. not a happy man this reason for good reason. >> no. >> bob, the st. louis cardinals are the gold standard for organization. pujols won the world series next year. one pitcher hurt after another. did the organization keep replenishing itself. there is really not a close second. >> there is a feel good vibe around the cardinals and it's a -- >> that's what makes it shocking. >> that's what makes it so
shocking, isn't it? >> yeah, especially if as michael schmitt laid it out and has it perfectly he's the guy that broke the story, after all if it goes higher up the pyramid, it's going to be a big, big deal. >> how likely is that? john lacked the general manager and bill dewitt the primary own rer ethical people. do they look -- are they ruthless competitors in a certain sense? everyone in sports has to be. but are they unethical? i haven't found them be. >> what is the difference between this and stealing signs? >> stealing signs is not only low tech but it's gamesmanship. if you steal signs with binoculars or videotape that, is beyond the pale. >> so let me just say, some 20 years -- your son or my son would be saying okay they're
using pass words that they had there. that is just stupid as giving away your sign. i'm not justifying anything. i'm just saying it's a new world. >> if you're tipping your pitches because you hold the ball in the glove a different way when you throw the curve ball or something slightly different and someone picks up on that, that's on you and good for them. now this is -- if true a crime. it's a federal crime. but your point is correct. jeff viewed a polarizing figure but as one of the cutting edge in baseball taking money ball to the next level, a very smart guy, you would think he would cover his tracks better than that. and not leave them so vulnerable. >> i don't want anybody getting confused while they're eating cheat yoes in their mother's basement blogging in their underwear. the fact is these are multi multimillion dollar organizations. if you have one file that has the most important information about your organization and you
got somebody that leaves your organization and you don't change your pass word all right, after the investigation is over and n. st. louis somebody needs to be fired in houston. >> well, there's no sport at least in my estimation that relies more on what they called faber met rikz than baseball. you should explain. you're more of an expert it in than i am -- not really -- but for the sake of this segment, explain the lock box, the vault that they got from the astros and what is contained in there. >> well, there is the data base the raw information. people might say everyone has access to the same statistics. and they have them on scouts. but then there are paradigms that seems especially the cutting edge teams create. so they take this information and they feed it into formulas oral ga rhythms designed to produce a small edge. but in sports it's a small edge that makes a difference in a
game or winning a championship. it isn't a 50% edge. if we can gain a 5% edge over time that's going to make the difference zblcht the cardinals did get this information and used it, how would it help them win games? >> well, you might get their scouting report, houston scouting report on your hitters. how they plan to work you. if that information made its way to people in uniform and they use it on the field, that is one thing. but also since lunau is successful with the cardinals and astros in identifying nonmajor league personnel, high school and college kids that they would draft, knowing what their he val weightses their evaluations are, that may help. we don't know if that is what happened. it could be that a couple guy who's kind of meet the profile of jonah hill and money ball, and there are hundreds of them now. every team has their own analytics department in addition to old school scouts if it's just a couple of those guys looking to make mischief and nobody higher up ordered it knew about it or benefited from
it then it's a scrape. but if it's worse than that if it goes to the top, it's a double black eye for the cardinals and for the city of st. louis because they identify so much of the identity of the town is tied up in that team. >> all right. bob cosstascostas, good to have you on the set as always. thank you. up next, how serious is the security situation in afghanistan? we look at why 10 and 12-year-olds are fighting to protect their village from the taliban. we'll be right back.
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brave? >> you're much tougher than me. good luck. >> that is stunning. >> really. part of the upcoming story on hbo, the boys in that clip who are helping defend their village from the taliban are only 10 12 and 14 years old. and joining us now, senior pruer er producer at vice ben anderson. >> ben, i'm sure you were expecting bad news. i couldn't have expected anything this shocking. >> no. and that clip is heartbreaking because the one kid gave me a fist pump. for a second he looks like a kid again. and he goes back to looking like the hardened fighter that he is. and this is the biggest
operation since the start of the entire war. 30,000 u.s. troops invaded and the commander who is also their grandmother, a 53-year-old woman. >> how unuseful is this? >> not that unusual. they have child soldiers child servants. it's not uncommon at all. >> and are the children and grandmother doing this because the fathers are gone fighting wrels? or dead? >> the fathers -- i mean the grandmother as commander is very uncommon. but you see child soldiers in most military forces like the one i was with there. >> you know about 40 45 years ago robert coles a social psychologist here in the united states, did a series of books called "children of crisis." one of them was rooted and narrated from northern ireland which was then in crisis with violence. you look at the world today you look at the clip we just showed and you look at the subcontinent
of africa, you have children in wars throughout the world raging. but this is particularly sad because of our past involvement in afghanistan. and that's what they're left with now? >> yeah. i mean, there's a big promise of operation. we would deliver this government in a box. and that government in a box is nonexistent. so every able-bodied person is having to fight and defend their village. they really are fighting. two of those boys were kidnapped a few days after we left them and the grandmother kidnapped taliban family members and they did an exchange. that is normal life in afghanistan. >> is that tribal life in afghanistan? we of course, look at it as global and implications by stealing children from villages or family members. do they look at this as part of something much bigger? or do they look at this as a fight for their village? village by village by village? or it is much more than that?
>> it is village by village. sometimes it's competition for the opium trades. sometimes people are pro taliban, anti-taliban. it is village by village. that's been the problem of afghanistan. we assumed we could create a government that would represent the whole country. we've never come close to achieving that. and still absolutely different from village to village. >> so michael steel, i guess the question is, join in here and ask a question. >> sure. >> there will be 1,000 questions asked by -- of those who say we should get out of afghanistan with a situation and this deplorable state. >> yeah. i think it really speaks, to you know, the wreckage that is left behind. and the question i have for ben is along those lines. how do those kids and you said something i thought was poignant in, that moment with that interaction with the fist pump, you saw the child for that brief moment. what is their view of us? how do, particularly the afghany children who look at the u.s. and what has been brought there in their land? >> i had a few meals with that
family in their house. they said to me the u.s. created us these afghan local police units and then abandoned us. year seeing the legacy of pulling out too early and the afghan security forces are nowhere ready to provide security on their own. people didn't want us to withdraw. sometimes withdrawing has as many consequences as staying or worse consequences. >> so, ben did you get the opportunity of spending time with these families to get a sense of what that inner child's life would be like were there no war that he was participating in? what would be their dream? to become an opium farmer? what would be their dream? >> the reality is to become an opium farmer. i said did you ever wish you could go to school and play football and go to school? he said of course but there is no school around here. if we don't fight taliban will kill us all. >> about it way, to put perspective on this on how it's different from iraq and of
course, you've been all over iraq before the united states went there this was their reality. i mean you had the taliban racing through there in the 1990s. a group that you know, last time i checked had a 20, 25% approval rating in afghanistan. they've been terrorizing this country for 20 years. they were terrorizing this country before 9/11. they were raping little kids. they were going into villages and doing the most horrific things before you ever even heard of osama bin laden. >> i think the mistake with afghanistan is to assume that taliban were almost an outside force with such a negative influence. and actually, ideologically, many allies don't differ much from the taliban at all. you talk about young children being raped by the taliban. they actually wiped out a lot of child rape and our allies, the afghan police are notorious for having child boys, young boys as servants. the problem is, you know, many things we tried to do were common across afghanistan not
just common to the taliban. so to try to rebuild that entire society in a fairly short amount of time is a fantasy. >> yeah. >> it airs this friday on hbo. ben anderson incredible work. thank you very very much. >> thank you. still ahead could there be a scenario for a vice president clinton by 2020? one of the nation's top conservative radio hosts says yes but it's not the clinton you may think. much more "morning joe" when we come back. two streetlights. the only difference: that little blue thingy. you see it? that's a sensor.
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pretty shot of new york, huh? >> gorgeous. >> let's turn to sports for a minute. a moment four decades in the making for the golden state warriors last night. they won the nba championship wrapping up the finals in game six against the cavaliers. lebron james just extraordinary once again, scored 32 points to go along with 18 rebounds and 9 assists but again, just wouldn't be enough for the cavs. curry scored 25 and iguodala named the finals mvp and warriors one 105-97. they steve kerr become the first
rookie coach to win a title since since riley did it with the lakers. >> we were fortunate in a lot of ways this year maybe number one was health. to win a title there's a lot of work but a lot of luck as well. we had a lot of luck on our side this year and our guys took advantage of it and they were fantastic. but, man, what a night. >> every single one of my teammates that sacrificed and put in the work and time for us to be able to enjoy this. coaching staff as well. it makes it so much more special to have gone through some lows, dwrad gradually work your way up and learn some things and comes to fruition with a championship trophy. >> i don't know for me it's never a success if you go out
losing but we put ourself in back where the franchise needs to be being a contender. but we've got a lot of work to do. >> mike, lebron's first two nba finals when he was with dwyane wade and the heat, he did not prove himself and seemed tentative, didn't want to get the ball. disappeared in the closing moments. boy, in defeat, this series -- >> what an astonishing player he is and what a champion's heart he has for his hometown. >> you take nothing against away from stephen curry and golden state but it was basically five on one for many of the games. it's an astonishing stat, don't know whether it held true throughout the six game series but at one point four games into the series, either scoring points himself or assists giving other players a chance to score a point.
lebron james was responsible for 67% of his team's points. an astonishing athlete. >> still ahead on "morning joe", author and tv show and now republican presidential candidate, why donald trump says the country should hire him to be the next president. a new poll shows senator sanders within striking distance of hillary clinton. . more on the accusations on the st. louis cardinals using high tech trips to help their winning ways. we'll be back with much more "morning joe." ker chris hill stays at laquinta and fires up free wi-fi, with a network that's now up to 5 times faster than before you know what he can do? let's see if he's ready. he can swim with the sharks! book your next stay at lq.com! ♪ roundup ♪ ♪ i'm a loving husband and a real good dad ♪ ♪ but weeds just make me rattlesnake mad ♪ ♪
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ladies and gentlemen, my father donald j. trump. ♪ [ applause ] >> i'm just really happy right now. a billionaire vanity candidate taking the escalator to the white house. only losers walk. presidents take stair force one. >> good morning, everyone, welcome. >> he did it. >> people said he wasn't going to do it. >> he finally officially did it.
>> everyone thought this could be another maybe like i'm going to be -- >> sort of a tease. >> what happens to "the apprentice". >> that is the real question. >> i don't think it's off the air. >> a lot of money involved there. >> the real question is what happens to the other republican candidates. >> exactly. >> boy, we got this -- >> michael steele -- remember we had the poll earlier in the week no, no, only one poll. now we have another one. bernie is within 10 in new hampshire. >> he's burning up new hampshire. can he take it across the country? >> maybe. >> that's the answer. >> donald trump announced his candidacy for the republican nomination yesterday. he did so before supporters at the tower that bears his name in a colorful speech full of his significant bravado. >> i will be the greatest jobs president that god ever created,
i tell you that. the american dream is dead. >> bring it back! >> but if i get elected president, i will bring it back bigger and better and stronger than ever before. and we will make america great again. our country is in serious trouble. we don't have victories anymore. when did we beat japan at anything? they send their cars over by the millions and what do we do? when was the last time you saw a chevrolet in tokyo? i'm using my own money. i'm not using the lobbyists or donors. i don't care. i'm really rich, i'll show you
that. by the way i'm not even saying that to brag -- that's the kind of mindset and thinking you need for this country. >> and trump didn't shy away from going after the rest of the gop field. >> there's been no crowd like this and i can tell you some of the candidates they went in they didn't know the air conditioner didn't work. they sweated like dogs. they didn't know the room was too big because they didn't have anybody there. how are they going to beat isis? i don't think it's going to happen. you looked at bush, it took him five days to answer the question on iraq. he couldn't answer the question. he didn't know. i said is he intelligent? then i looked at rubio. he was unable to answer the question is iraq a good thing or bad thing. he didn't know. he couldn't answer the question. how are these people going to lead us? bush is totally in favor of
common core. i don't see how he can possibly get the nomination. he's weak on immigration and in favor of common core, how the hell can you vote for this guy? you can't do it. >> he's in. what do you think? >> well i think that while a lot of people in the media may scoff at it he's got a lot of money. he doesn't give a damn what anybody thinks about him and doesn't play by the rules. that could be a very dangerous combination for some candidates out there. he's going to say whatever is on his mind. if somebody is up there stepping on the stage and trump keeps jabbing at him, we'll see -- >> not like he's carefully -- he's saying what he thinks may impact the other candidates. his comments about mexico drew the most backlash. take a look at this. >> these are the best and finest.
when mexico sends its people, they are not sending their best. they are not sending you. they are not sending you. they are sending people that have lots of problems and they are bringing those problems with us. they are bringing drugs. they are bringing crime. they are rapists and some, i assume are good people. >> so kasie you were there, did you see a response to that? i'm hearing a lot about that sound bite. >> that probably drew the most criticism, we're use to trump being bombastic. as far as his role in this process, he does appeal to a sector of the republican party that many other republicans even in the establishment side want to appeal to. mitt romney ran trump robo calls in michigan primary and in trump's office he has a framed picture of the scott walker winning, that he signed and sent to him.
but i will say yesterday at the announcing trump tower classic setting for donald trump. >> what do we want! what do we want! >> like everything else trump his announcement was a spectacle, held at trump tower locked down by dozens of security officers. supporters allowed on only after they put on a t-shirt. >> can you vote in america? >> french. >> can you vote in america? >> no i can't, unfortunately only in finland. >> reporter: his name and face were everywhere his new cologne summing it up. it's called success. wondering what you think it smells like, for men? >> wow, smells like attraction. >> reporter: what's it smell like? >> success. >> money. >> reporter: after of the event trump was getting on one of his
signature private planes to fly to iowa where success usually takes a little humility. >> a lot of people said he'll never run, he won't want to give up his lifestyle. they are right about that, but i'm doing it. >> i'm doing it. >> it's interesting and you've seen this on the campaign trail, again, you'll have everybody ridicule him and say he's -- this is just a joke this is -- and then he'll go to south carolina and he'll have a bigger crowd than every other established candidate. then he'll go to new hampshire and he'll have a bigger crowd than everier established candidate. i don't know about iowa, people want him out there too. like you said -- the proof is in the pudding, if people think he'll get 1% and crawl away with his head between his tail they probably have it wrong. >> i also think the debate stage is a question. whether or not this translates into people saying they'll vote for him, he has fallen back a
little bit in these polls. he was higher up. i'm not sure the republican party -- this time around unlike maybe in 2012 is willing to tolerate anything that comes across as unseriousness or incompetence if you will. he could push off somebody like lindsey graham or john kasich. i think not planning for that on the part of any of the other republican candidates would not be smart. >> that would be -- that question on the headline that came up could trump trip up the gop, i think -- >> you could make a lot of establishment people very nervous. meachum has come down from the meachum tower and will be writing the book soon enough. there are bigger than life people that go out and actually make a splash on the stage. >> perot is the great example a billionaire with a populist message. that was a different year it
seems to me. and you had someone, his celebrity came not really from the entertainment complex as much as from the business complex, perot came from this straight talking western thing. you know the pattern here is populist candidates burn brightly and major parties figure out what's working in the message and take it and incorporate and the candidate flames off. >> ross perot is a example. >> he raised specific ideas that generated other people to think about those ideas. can we stipulate for the purposes of this conversation that donald trump will never be president of the united states, that his lethal danger to the republican party, we just showed it. we just gave him five minutes, five minutes -- >> then i'm not sure -- we just gave him five minutes when jeb bush, didn't he announce? what do you think of this latest
addition to republican field. >> i've got my popcorn and lounge chair and i'm ready. this is going to be one of those rides that i think joe and kasie have tux have touched on. there's concern among rank and file establishment leaders that this becomes a circus, the cult of personality than running for the presidency of the united states. donald trump's speech yesterday, if that is the approach he's going to take it will lend itself more to cult of personality which would be a problem -- >> let me ask you, following up on what kasie said he is popular among some rank and file in the gop and to follow up on mike's question we gave him five minutes in new hampshire near the top of the polls. and he beats a lot of people that are more established politically and played by the
political rules in washington. i don't know -- i think there may be a big protest vote this year that might make him a player. >> that is a key point. that has a lot of people nervous. it goes to the fact that he has despite the poll, the most recent poll that showed 59% of gop voters in the primary would not vote for donald trump there's a significant base for him to work from and that base will be excited about him and it's a real problem particularly in early debates if he's on the stage because the argument will be framed by donald trump, not a jeb bush or marco rubio or others. >> mike just asked the question will donald trump ever be president? you could ask the same question of bernie sanders and yet over on the democratic side bernie sanders may not be elected president but he could cause a front-runner who's supposed to be elected president some sleepless night and dangerous days. >> let's take a look at what's
happening in vermont and wonder if hillary clinton should be getting worried about bernie sanders. that's the question political experts are asking after a second poll shows the vermont senator surging in new hampshire. the latest from suffolk university, which gives clinton a 10-point lead over sanders among democrats. there's a clear gender gap with sander trailing clinton by nearly 20 points with female voters and another poll by the morning consult also found sanders narrowing the gap against clinton in the granite state. >> we're talking about ten points. >> look at his crowds on the campaign trail. >> his crowds are absolutely -- >> 3,000 people expected this saturday. >> his crowds are absolutely massive. right now and -- yes, it's his neighboring state but when he started out he wasn't within ten points of hillary clinton in new hampshire. she was light years ahead. >> you can help me out here at
least 25 or 30 points behind clinton six or seven weeks ago but new hampshire i don't know about colorado, we just referenced colorado, new hampshire is made for bernie sanders. >> yes. >> and his message is made for the new hampshire democratic primary. he will despite whatever happens to him in new hampshire, whether he wins or loses, he will succeed, already has succeeded to a point in pushing hillary clinton to the point where she's going to have to address substantively specific issues. theel have to address the trade package and several specific issues. >> and you know we're already seeing team clinton start to try to spin these early states saying no one has ever won iowa by more than -- gotten more than 49% in iowa, et cetera. there's risk built into this early primary system for her. they know it and while it's arguable bernie sanders will never be president of the united states, it doesn't mean he's not going to be a major --
>> that doesn't mean also jon meachum, that bernie sanders wouldn't do very well in iowa, another populist state. >> we're talking about a ten-point spread right now, way out. if hillary keeps quiet on trade or stumbles around and keeps quiet on other issues important to populists you could have a protest vote. if hillary is struggling to get past bernie sanders and avowed socialist from vermont and iowa and new hampshire, that doesn't make the chattering classes actually any easier on her abilities. >> politics like nature ab whos a vacuum. if you think the modern era started in '76 when carter made the caucuses relevant. there have been eight presidential elections since then. in every one of them the vul
nominee of the challenging party has had a real primary. reagan and bush in '80. bush and dole and dukakis gephart, clinton the come back kid lost new hampshire. all the way through. it's a sign that she -- >> bush got routed in new hampshire by mccain. >> cyber espionage, now the st. louis cardinals are fully cooperating with an fbi investigation into whether someone in the organization breached a database of the houston astros. but the commissioner cautions it's too early to know the whole story, which was first reported by "the new york times." >> in addition to what happened there's the question of who did it who knew about it is the organize responsible? is the individual responsible?
because i don't know exactly what the facts are and i don't think the person who wrote the "times" story knows exactly what the facts are, it doesn't make sense to speculate as to how serious a problem i have. >> letsz bring in that pern whthe "times" story, michael schmit joins us. tell us about the attack. what do we know so far? >> well, basically the astros had a special network that housed their most precious secrets about their players special statistics and scouting reports and guys in the cardinal cardinals front office knew about this and knew the passwords the astros guys were using because they used to work on their team. they went on their network and found the passwords and used them, went in and took the data. >> sounds like you say guys, plural is there any belief that
more than one lone hacker was involved in this? was this organizationwide action? >> we know that the fbi is looking atd that the initial investigation looked at the entire front office in general. as we know in these cases the question is how high did it go? were these lower level guys doing it for folks on high who knew about it or just freelancing? in deflategate and spygate that's the question how high did it go. >> part of the shock within major league baseball and there is shock within major league baseball, is the fact that the cardinals are among the most revered the organizations in mld and bill dewitt was the head of the committee that elected rob manfred, the new commissioner. what would people be telling you -- what are people telling you about the possible ramifications when the fbi gets to bottom of this?
is this a possibility that people will be banned from baseball for life? >> well this is really the first challenge foreman manfred, he took over for selig and had a pretty easy time so far. if it comes out indeed the cardinals were doing that, he'll probably have to do something. will i take away a draft pick, fine the team? i don't think he's going to throw bill dewitt out of the game. but maybe folks in the lower ends of the front office get thrown out. i don't know it depends on who gets charged. but it will be challenging for him because he'll have to do something to send a message to the other teams in the game. >> michael schmit thank you. cnbc has business before the bell. and donald trump says he wants oprah to be his running mate in 2016. but a radio host is floating another big and surprising name
for republicans. we'll have that for you ahead in our political roundtable. but first, here's bill karins with a check on the forecast. yesterday it made landfall as a tropical storm, houston mostly spared. dallas you have a rough morning commute, probably one of the worst ones you'll have of the summer season. heavy bands of rain through ft. worth and dallas. significant airport delays beginning to build up. winds aren't too bad, only 20 to 30-mile-per-hour gusts but it's the rain and ponding on the roads that will cause delays. i do not expect epic or major flooding in the dallas ft. worth area. we should pick up 3 to 6 inches. there will be problems and standing water but it won't be widespread flooding problems. as far as the area that saw the landfall yesterday the tail of the storm still has storms going through that area. be careful driving south of i-10 because there will be heavy rains and additional 1 to 2 inches in spots that picked up 7 inches of rainfall. for dallas, around 3 inches by the time you're said and done.
there's a couple purple shades near tulsa, especially that's where we could see isolated totals up to 8 inches. the storm will stall out late tonight and tomorrow in eastern oklahoma. that's my next area of concern. the other story is the heat. 104 feels like in tallahassee. columbia, about 99. we have hot weather, charleston up to 107 for a heat index late today. we're very wet in the middle of the country and then on the southeast coast and in the southwest, it is very hot. phoenix today will feel like 107 degrees. a little bit of everything out there in the southern half of the country. if you want great weather you can find that here in the northeast. d.c., you get relief up into new england. beautiful weather for the middle of this week. we levelave you with a shot of new york city. it's beautiful today. we'll be right back.
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♪ time to take a look at the morning papers nbc news.com a federal judge has sentenced the man who scaled the white house fence and got to the east room last year. 43-year-old army veteran gonzalez got 17 months in prison followed by three years of supervised release. gonzales has been in prison since the incident last september and pleaded guilty to entering a restricted building while carrying a deadly weapon and assaulting a secret service agent. >> the new york times military says they will lose a lot more drone pilots than they can train because of the stress related to
the job. it may also be because of pay. military operators can earn four times their salary working for private defense contractors. >> the atlanta journal constitution, the food and drug administration is giving food companies three years to remove trans fats completely from processed foods. some companies have stopped using the additives already but they can be found in many products. the fda estimates the change could prevent 20,000 heart attacks and 7,000 deaths from heart disease every year. the new york daily news, first lady michelle obama met prince harry for tea at kensington palace. first lady met with the british prime minister david cameron and his wife. "variety", 8.1 million viewers tuned in to watch the shocking season five finale of "game of thrones" on sunday. it was the show's largest
audience ever up 14% from the previous last week and last season's finale despite going up against the nba finals in most of the country. "game of thrones" is expected to be back in early 2016 without john snow. coming up on "morning joe" why david axelrod says trump's announcement was like open mike night for republicans and why marco rubio is hillary clinton's worst night mare. they both join us next for the "morning joe" political roundtable.
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how can you convince people to take you seriously in this presidential race? >> well i don't understand the question. you saw the biggest crowd you've seen. you've seen the biggest response that you've seen. you saw financial statement that is in the history of presidential, never been anything like that. and that's real stuff too. that's real estate the best real estate. i think everyone is thinking -- i think -- nobody thought i was going to run. i'm doing well in the polls, new hampshire just had a poll where i was number three. nobody thinks i'm running, that was from yesterday or two days ago and nobody thinks i'm running and i do well in the polls. now that i'm officially running i think they are taking us very seriously. >> i know border guards and some are saying you would not believe, mr. trump, the level of quality that people are horrible that are coming across and they
specifically said, rapists and drug dealer and they said in some cases killers. this is what we're taking. the united states is becoming a dumping ground for other places and we can't let that go on. i think that's why i have the biggest crowds and have the standing ovations. say it like it is -- >> you will don't think there are good people coming across? >> i didn't say that. you said that. i said that there must be some good people coming too but we have a lot of bad people, disproportionate number of bad people coming -- >> that was kasie hunt speaking with donald trump after his 2016 announcement. >> we have with us right now the news and finance anchor at yahoo! and syndicated radio host author the queen", the coming of a second clinton era. mark halperin taking a back seat
because david axelrod, this is a cornucopia of political experts. i've got to start with you hugh, you're a california guy and you remember when pete wilson a lot of people respected, champion of anti-immigrant. >> 1994. >> and republicans haven't won statewide since. i would guess as a republican in california who's actually interested in your party running things, hearing donald trump say that about immigrants has to be concerned? >> we did win statewide with arnold subsequent -- >> i'll bet you're sorry you did. >> you're right, you've got to approach the wall carefully. i write about the fence in "the queen." 90% of the party, making sure those are here in regularized in some fashion but not citizenship. i think probably all of the dozen candidates on the
republican side who are serious will adopt that position. >> that's where i am too, anybody that lives in california or ever lived in florida knows, you're not accepteding all of the illegal immigrants back home. >> of course not. >> might as well work towards a legal status for those who are worthy of a legal status. i'm just saying suggesting that the majority that come across the border are murderers and rapists instead of people that want to work on projects and take their money and take it back home to families and come back -- >> i think you have to understand trump as the merger of pt barnum and alan keys all in one. i interviewed him for 40 minutes. he answered whatever he wanted to say and he will draw as you said earlier, enormous crowds. >> and doing well. >> doing well. >> and going to do well. tell us about "the queen". >> my attempt to channel my inner davidaxelrod. he saw the beliefer was back
there, david's book and looked at it he was a terrific two-hour interview. it's my advice on how to go from prohibitive favorite to the president. >> how does she do it? >> she started like a queen. i do not think the roosevelt island speech was a great rollout. she's got to do more to reduce the queen part of it but that's true. >> maybe she and her campaign don't care about you and the press. >> they don't. she's acting like -- >> maybe it's not about you and the press but about her winning and maybe she will and maybe they are right. >> i would defer to mark and others whether or not you can get away with that for very long. david? >> david axelrod? >> i don't think the average voter is sitting there in consternation because hillary clinton isn't talking to the news media. i don't think that's the case. but i do think humility is
important here. that was something that was lacking in the runup to the 2008 election. she started off in the right tone there. i think she has to stay there. part of humility is submitting yourself to questions not just from voters but from the news media. eventually she's going to have to answer questions. >> so hugh mika and i, if you watch the show have been wringing our hands over the fact no matter what the clintons do -- for mika especially the key of crossing the line was the scrubbing of the server. she is indignant that the media doesn't seem to stay after that. i guess the question is -- >> you are right, on "meet the press" on sunday when chuck gave me the answer to ask bill daily a question one question i said were you aware there was a server in the former secretary of state's house and would you have ordered today removed if it
was? he said i have no idea. that will figure greatly. it is a national security issue not a political issue or vanity issue. i talked to a very senior former member of the agency who said every one of america's foreign enemies have everything on that server they would be guilty of malpractice if they didn't. in the blumenthal depositions yesterday, i'm sure it came up. >> david, what do you think about that? and bill daley not knowing about the server. is that unusual? >> it is unusual he was the chief of staff. i was there and senior adviser and didn't know that -- >> if you did find out while you were there would you say, wait a minute guys should we all talk about this? >> i might have asked a few questions about that. you know look i don't think, again, the question is what are people focused on what do they care about?
they care about their lives. they care about being able to meet their bills and how their kids are going to do in the future. that's where their focus is and what the gamble of the clinton campaign is that people don't really care about that. so you know it may turn out -- >> you would have if you found out when you were serving as senior adviser in the white house and found out about that you would have thought there was a problem? >> i would ask a question. look, if the st. louis cardinals can poach the secrets of the houston astros then you know it speaks to the age in which we live. so i would have concerns about it, but the question for this discussion is moving forward how much of an impact is that likely to have on the campaign? i'm not sure it's going to have a big impact. >> david, you say the clintons are going to say people care about jobs and everything else. is there any offense so serious that you think voters would say, we care more about that or at least we want to talk about that as opposed to jobs and the
economy? >> well look i think things -- >> i mean killed someone, you would say that's serious, right? how serious an offense to break through to voters? >> i feel like that would be cause for concern, mark if the candidate killed somebody. >> where's the line? >> seriously, i think that anything that goes to the fundamental authenticity and sincerity of the candidate on economic issues are the ones most threatening if those were to come up. can i just say one thing about all of these polls and discussion about bernie sanders, who i like but who is not going to be president of the united states. it is june. i worked for a candidate who was 11 points ahead of hillary clinton in new hampshire five days before the primary. so let's keep in perspective all of these early polls. they haven't played the game
yet. >> exactly. they are all trend lines. >> has helen miren signed on to play the role in the movie yet? >> she would be perfect. >> she would. >> how important is the likability factor related to hillary, you think to the 2008 debate, you're likeable enough you agree with many analysts she should be most fearful of marco rubio. is that going to be play a big role? >> i think so. the new quinn pea yak polls shows she's upsidedown. she's a dreadful candidate and -- >> this is a new poll on favorable. hillary, 41 unfavorable 44. extraordinary. we say, we sit here and complain every day that people don't pay attention. her approval ratings were in the 60s a year ago. people are paying attention to these stories. maybe not specifically but the net effect of it certainly has knocked her, upsidedown three
points. >> in the horse race currently voetders who know them both he does even better -- >> i'm sorry hugh. >> it does matter. she has an image that's very hard to change. the cake is baked. when i go to a rubio event, i'll see the wait staff will come from the kitchen and line the walls which i rarely see it happen. >> i went to a rubio speech a couple of weeks ago in connecticut and that very thing happened. they were lined all the way -- >> hold on a second. >> finish your point -- >> that's likeable. that goes to likability. >> have you been to a hillary clinton event? >> the former first lady won't interview me. >> if you look at the crowds you can't get in. people are going crazy. >> after 25 years, if you haven't got a operation that can fill up roosevelt island fine. we'll wait see seen in iowa. >> let's get david in here. i'm going to let you jump in --
let me finish my sentence. i'm going to let you jump in then we really need to go through the list of republican candidates with you. david, go. >> you need another hour for that, but on the hillary point, i think what's important to recognize is a lot of these polls are swinging into the kind of format of our national politics now. the tem plate of our national politics which is polarized and look at the numbers among democrats and they are quite high, even in the polls 72% approval rating among democrats. these polls may problem to be problematic down the line but among democrats she's really quite popular. that popularity hasn't eroded over the last few months. >> it would be stunning if she didn't win the democratic nomination going away. so let's -- we have a team mccarthy question here that we keep -- let's go down the list of republican candidates new polls out. but i want to ask you first of
all, jeb bush. >> did a great rollout and in fact i think his transition to spanish fluently was a very important moment in the campaign. i got a lot of pushback on twitter, why is he doing that? a lot of american voters -- >> can i answer that for you? >> because we want to win. that's why he's doing it. >> it was very effective and very good last night as he made the rounds on tv. as i write in the queen, the worst nightmare is marco rubio. >> talk about marco, are you oversimplying that young against experience? >> i would defer to professionals i'm a republican talk show host advocate. she would be crazy to debate ted cruz if he were the nominee. but right now i think the reason you saw "the new york times" stories on the speeding tickets and speed boat someone is trying to dent and bleed marco rubio right now. jo think it's jeb bush. i think it's mrs. clinton.
>> can you answer a question that we were kind of tossing around earlier? rand paul beats hillary in ohio does very well in other states and yet rand is kind of fallen off the discussion. we've got the first tier and then there's rand and couple of other people. why the lack of attention right now. >> the islamic state marching on mosul, islamic state taking ramadi -- as i said i had general mcchrystal in my studio for hours, they make 100 million media contexts each day and america is aware of that and it hurts rand paul significantly. >> hugh talked about rubio being strong. i think in the clinton household they look at jeb as a bigger threat. rubio number two. part because of fund raising. whoever runs against her will be able to raise a lot of money but the bush network they think can raise more. >> bush did well with hispanics,
you look at states like -- say it all the time whether it's marco or jeb, we never had this lux tri, states like colorado nevada new mexico arizona, virginia, other states. >> virginia florida, ohio colorado. >> colorado is the most important one and mitt got blown out -- >> you've got a role for chelsea. >> i think mrs. clinton will point kristen gillibrand 49 years, experienced prosecutor ucla extraordinarily competent senator, she'll be confirmed and then chelsea becomes the senator from your great state of new york. the book is "the queen" hugh hewitt. thank you very much. david alex rodxelrod, thank you as well.
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it is time for business for the bell with sara icen, big speech janet yellen. >> it is fed day and it's an important one because we expect clues on when the federal reserve is going to raise interest rates. basically we've been at zero rates, crisis era policy since back in december of 2008. and the federal reserve has not actually raised interest rates since back in 2006. we know that that is in play and we could expect to hear clues and hints on how that's going to happen, when that's going to happen. they don't expect it to happen today but they are expecting it to happen before the end of the year. it could be market moving. she begins to speak at 2:30. that's going to be a biggy. the other thing i wanted to mention is fedex. a prominent one, the world's biggest cargo airline and big barometer of economic strengths. wall street was looking for better numbers out of fedex. we'll watch that stock.
it did say that the 2016 outlook assumes continued moderate groeblg. we're expecting to hear what the fed has to say about the economy as well. it's been better than the early part of the year with the cold winter weather but still pretty uneven and bumpy recovery. >> cnbc's sarah eisen. >> a man arrested in arrested to last month's prophet muhammad shooting. here is a simple math problem. two trains leave st. louis for albuquerque
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federal officials say the arizona man arrested in connection with the draw muhammad contest arrested last month also planned an attack against the super bowl in february. joining us with more is pete williams, this came out during a court hearing yesterday. >> that's right. >> what did we hear about that and what else is there? >> we thought there were two people involved in this attack on the garland, texas, contest but now they've charged this third man. he's 43 runs a carpet cleaning business in phoenix. authorities say he helped to plan the garland attack by the other two phoenix men who drove to texas may 3rd and they were shot and killed almost immediately. prosecutors say he met with the two at their house to talk about
the plot, they practiced shooting together in the arizona desert and he provided the two men who went to texas with the guns he used. then yesterday an fbi agent testified in court that he also considered some kind of attack on the super bowl in phoenix, but there's no suggestion that got beyond the talking stage. nonetheless, one prosecutor in court called kareem off the charts dangerous, mika. >> who's to blame for this oversight in fbi, texas authorities? >> the fbi says they did know about him just about the two going to texas just before they got there, but in going back now and looking through their social media and their e-mails and so forth, that's how they've come across kareem. they say the common denominator here in this case, in attempted attack in police in boston and arrest yesterday in new york all of this is isis social media. >> pete williams thank you very much. up next what if anything did we learn today?
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>> what have you learned? >> that barnicle is signing up on the trump committee. can i announce this? >> go ahead, yes, might as well. >> barnicle will be supporting donald trump. >> and we'll try to help the st. louis cardinals. >> they are in big trouble. >> we may have another senator clinton for the great state of new york. >> interesting. >> very fascinating take. >> bob costas is as upset about the cardinals as hugh hewitt is about hillary. >> so it's been a crazy week a lot of things going on -- >> it's only wednesday. >> it's only wednesday. >> what's your takeaway politically of the last week or two? >> the republican party sees hillary as vulnerable but can't figure out the right person to take her on. >> how would you grade jeb bush? >> good week. >> marco, would you consider him right now jeb's closest competitor? >> and scott walker and maybe john kasich.
the big four right now. >> not trump. >> don't discount mr. trump or ted cruz or rand paul. it's a big field. >> all right, if it's way too early -- >> it's "morning joe." "the rundown" starts right now. >> good morning, we begin the rundown with flash flooding in texas. take a look at these pictures, a truck jack knifed on the side of the road off route 59 near el campo as tropical storm bill drenched the county overnight and in seabrook some residents took to kayaking to get around as more flood sg expected despite being downgraded to a tropical depression this morning. let's get the latest on where bill is heading from next from bill karins. >> good morning, as you know sometimes these storms and hurricanes can overachieve and sometimes they under achieve. to this point we're under