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tv   The Place for Politics 2016  MSNBC  January 31, 2016 8:00pm-10:01pm PST

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we'll be back next week from new hampshire. but we've got coverage all day long, today, tomorrow, don't miss it. because if it's sunday, it's "meet the press." good evening. happy iowa eve. you're looking at a beautiful shot of the iowa state capital there. i'm rachel maddow. alongside brian williams. >> good to be with all of you. 24 hours indeed. until the doors close in
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caucuses across iowa. caucuses will get under way, and then we'll start the process of tallying up and analyzing the choices, the selections of really what are the first voters to participate in the '16 presidential election process. it all starts in iowa, where at this hour the leading candidates are either speaking right now, or are about to speak. that's donald trump live on the right. a sanders event and rubio event on the left. some of them are en route to finishing their final rallies of the evening. the candidates at the top of the pack also have plans to join us this evening. we intend to talk to senator bernie sanders along the way, former secretary of state hillary clinton and donald trump. a busy night ahead. as for where the candidates stand in these final hours before the voting starts, the final poll from what's considered the paper of record in iowa, "the des moines register," donald trump leading ted cruz by five points, 28-23.
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but remember, the margin of error is four points. basically a statistical dead heat. >> on the democratic side, it's even closer than that. in the final poll, hillary clinton leads bernie sanders by only three points. 45% to 42%, which, again, is within the margin of error. it is basically a tie. >> 24 hours to go, a very tight race on both sides. let's begin here with our colleague, chris matthews. he's at our election headquarters in des moines. chris, two things. what does it feel like there, which is actually an important question with 24 hours to go, and what do you think iowa's role will be in this cycle? sometimes they've been an incredible predictor. sometimes the result has been completely irrelevant to the race for president. >> well, i have to start by saying, i feel butterflies out here in the locker room. it's a very strange time to try
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to be a pundit or journalist in politics, because we're into strange territory. the polling as you just pointed out shows donald trump leading in iowa. now, think about that. this is the iowa republican caucus that picked santorum a couple of times ago. that picked santorum. the last time they picked huckabee. and years before that, unhyphenated republicans like bushes. this is an excellent poll about to select a man with three wives in his lifetime, a casino operator, known best as a hot shot from the big apple, from new york city. an extraordinary shift in the tectonic plates of the republican party. and all i can say is, you can't go by the man's resume to understand what's going on out here. what you have to look at is the voters out here. especially on the republican side they're angry, they have a sense of betrayal. these are their words, illegal
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immigration, illegal immigration. they don't like that. they don't like the fact of the jobs to the overseas. they don't like the wars we're involved in. that includes republicans. they don't like the war in iraq out here. there's been a sense of betrayal. trump has come along and said i'm going to make america great again. that seems to be a big surprise he could win tomorrow. the democratic party is not ashamed of the term socialist. 43% in a recent poll said they have no problem calling themselves socialists. bernie sanders has moved into that, with an appeal to the voters on the ground that you can't pay your student loans, you shouldn't have student loans, it should be free. social security benefits should be way higher than they are. health care should be a right from birth to death. so he's made an incredible appeal. hillary clinton trying to hold the center left out here. i go back to the poll.
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the incredible des moines register poll that came out the other day. a lot of people are looking at the poll and react to the poll. almost like early returns coming in. i think it will shake things up out here. we'll see if the poll itself makes people jittery. brian, back to you, and rachel. >> things indeed are on the move with 24 hours to go in iowa. chris, thanks. over to katy tur we go. she is at a donald trump event in sioux city. katy, as you've been pointing out, as time gets short now, trump has increased his number of stops. much more conventional campaign schedule. except events like the one you just witnessed there, unconventional. kind of an evening with donald trump answering questions from jerry falwell jr. on the stage. >> reporter: it was a question-and-answer session. i think trying to soften trump's image. jerry falwell being more reasonable sounding.
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falwell listed the individuals that trump has given to over the years, which culminated into a $100,000 for soldiers that was presented to them on stage. one of those big checks. that was from the money raised the other night from the debate no-show. the fund-raiser that he held for veterans. what donald trump has been doing in the last day before the caucuses is really pushing the evangelical vote. he went to church this morning. he's in king country here. he's trying to eke away any support he can from ted cruz. the polls are showing he's doing so well with moderates. he seems to have the moderate vote locked up, if you see these polls. donald trump needs to take a little bit more away from ted cruz, and the evangelical vote. the campaign believes that will put him over the edge here. that is if you believe the poll numbers. there are a lot of people out there questioning those poll numbers from day one, questioning this campaign that
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donald trump is waging. he's doing things his way. not following the establishment. and we're going to find out in just about a day whether or not that works. whether his ground game which we don't know that much about can match up against ted cruz who has been told, we've been told, we've seen, excuse me, have quite a formidable ground game here in iowa. rachel? >> thanks, katy. fascinating what she was saying about what we know and what we don't know about the ground games of these campaigns. it's easy to extrapolate how they're campaigning nationally. iowa is its own thing. really, nobody knows how the ground games will work in iowa until they start working, which will be seven minutes than 24 hours from now. joining us now is casey hunt at a bernie sanders rally in des moines. casey, how big an event is this for bernie sanders and how much energy are you seeing out there
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for him these days? >> reporter: rachel, i've been with bernie sanders the last week or so on the campaign trail. i have to tell you, the energy is very organic. it is very real. there are 1,000 people waiting for senator sanders. last night i was with him out in iowa city, the home of the university of iowa, where upwards of 3,000, 4,000 students showed up to see him talk, and vampire weekend actually sang "this land is your land" together. peter, paul and mary, as many people know it, a classic. that captured the bernie sanders crowd, and what you would expect from that perspective. the question, of course, for them is just whether or not their people are actually going to show up. i went canvassing today with a couple of high school students, who had come down from
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minneapolis. the type of person typically excited by bernie sanders. we actually knocked on the door of one woman in the middle age, not the stereotypical supporter we've talked to, she said she was getting engaged for the first time. she was going to go out this time because of the basic insecurities we know a lot of american people are feeling. she was talking particularly about social security. the sanders people know what their universe looks like. talking to a sanders aide who said we'll be on the phones who are the number one supporters. they feel they should know relatively early in the night whether or not those people are coming out and whether or not this is going to be a good night for him tomorrow. >> casey hunt in des moines, casey, thank you. that, of course, is going to be key, figuring out the people who have never been to a caucus before and say they plan to go, whether they actually get themselves through the door. that's going to be a huge issue, both for the sanders campaign
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and democratic side, also for the trump campaign on the republican side. let's go now to kristen welker who is also in des moines. hillary clinton will be holding a rally shortly, along with her husband bill clinton and daughter chelsea. how unusual is this for all three of them to be doing the same event together? >> reporter: well, it's sort of been all hands on deck for the past 48 hours, rachel. you're absolutely right, they rolled this out at the end of the campaign. charlotte, her granddaughter, was even at an event today. all hands on deck in the clinton family. but look, i talked to clinton campaign officials earlier today who said she's energized, and within the campaign there is a sense of measured optimism. "the des moines register" poll shows clinton with a slight lead. they have expected this race to be close. it is going to be close. they expect tomorrow night to be close as well. they say they have confidence in
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their ground game. what you all have been talking about. why? because in part, it's modeled after president obama's ground game from 2008. then senator barack obama. they say they've done 120,000 door knocks just this weekend. i visited one of their campaign headquarters. they were busy working the phones. they were also busy putting new technology to use. one new app that they will be deploying tomorrow night, kind of like a pocket calculator, it will help the captain tabulate how many caucusgoers secretary clinton has, and also gives tips for how to generate more support throughout the night. so they are putting that type of technology to use. secretary clinton will be here, as you mentioned, with her whole family, making her final pitch, saying she has the experience. this is a campaign, the reflection will be will that be enough to take her over the finish line. it turns to turnout, if the
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first-time caucusgoers, if they turn out in force, bernie sanders could win. i've been out talking to likely caucusgoers. a lot of them who are first-time caucusgoers. a lot of them saying they're excited to get out for the first time. but many saying they're not sure how they're going to get there, or fit it into their schedule. there is a lot of agreement. everyone here in iowa seems ready to finally have a say. brian, i'll toss it back to you. >> kristen welker at the clinton family event there in iowa tonight. the only note of caution i've heard about the app is, don't expect widespread wi-fi in some of rural iowa at all of these caucuses, because it's just not going to happen, especially the way it was in silicon valley where it was invented. to the cruz campaign, hallie jackson, at a rally about to get under way in des moines. this will be senator cruz's third campaign event of the day.
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hallie, when do the people get allowed inside the auditorium? >> reporter: we're not the only ones here, i promise. at least we probably won't be in about two hours when the senator arrives. you would expect this place to be packed. i'll show you a little bit of the behind the scenes as what happens at people start setting up. this is the stuff you don't necessarily see, getting the projectors ready, et cetera. this is part of his speech tonight, closing argument to convince people they should pick him. cruz is the second choice for a lot of folks who might support a carson or mike huckabee or rick san ttoru santorum. he's trying to convince them to vote for cruz. how are they doing that? they've got volunteers as we speak tonight, 24 hours to the caucuses, making phone calls. these phone calls i'm told are lasting on average 17 minutes. longer than your typical get out the vote call. it's because the volunteers making the calls know exactly
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who they're talking to. they know the issues those people care about. and a script allowing them to talk to the people in a way that hopefully the cruz campaign hopes will resonate with them and convince them to change their minds and caucus for ted cruz. the other part of it, though, is the energy that you're feeling, and a confidence level of the campaign. the campaign is feeling good about where it is. these guys are setting up the projector. i'll let our cameraman walk other and show the audio getting ready. the one thing you see at a lot of the cruz events is a very good production value. he plays videos, gets the crowd really excited before his surrogates come out and amp him up before the senator takes the stage. the confidence of the campaign, i can tell you, there does seem to be a sense, what we've seen in their ads lately, about a concern about marco rubio potentially threatening with a dark horse. at least getting close enough and tightening those margins. a campaign aide telling me
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moments ago that imitation is the best form of flattery. this idea that marco rubio is talking more and more about of things like ted cruz. talking about what he would do on his first day in office. it's interesting to watch, brian, the battle not just between trump and cruz, but cruz and rubio. >> hallie jackson on what's about to be a cruz rally. >> he's doing a 10:15 p.m. rally. the real importance of iowa is who gives momentum to heading into the rest of the early states, ultimately the rest of the race, that's the big issue. who is going to win, who's going to help win. the more direct and conclusive immediate question about iowa, though, especially in a republican field this large, this year, is actually the question of who loses there. who has the most to lose if they underperform in iowa.
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it's not as happy a story, but it is really important this time of year. joining us now, steve. steve, for whom is iowa make or break this year? >> that is the question, who has the most to lose. we'll start on the democratic side. the answer here is bernie sanders. to explain why, i think we start by fast fordwarding a couple of weeks. the third major contest on the democratic side. that's going to be south carolina. you see the most recent poll has bernie sanders down by 40 points in south carolina. this points to a major weakness to the sanders campaign. they have failed so far to attract significant african-american support. south carolina is the first state on the docket where you'll have a major african-american presence voting on the democratic side. the first of many states where african-americans will play a big role. bernie sanders is getting buried with black voters right now. that is a major obstacle his campaign has yet to address. the second major obstacle he already faces tonight, he's
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already a couple hundred delegates behind hillary clinton. you remember the super delegates from 2008, the governors, senators, members of congress? hillary clinton has locked down a couple hundred of them. bernie sanders essentially zero. to overcome the obstacles, the theory for bernie sanders is basically, you need to shock the world. you need to do something so major, that it shakes up everybody's assumptions about hillary clinton's strength and inevitability. that really does require not a close second place finish in iowa, but an outright victory in iowa. he's close right now. the latest poll has him three points behind. the good news beyond that for sanders is not only is he close in iowa, he's already significantly ahead in new hampshire. nearly 20 points. who would have believed that six months ago, a year ago. you can win iowa, you can win new hampshire, the theory then is, that will be so shocking, so startling, it will throw into question all of those assumptions about hillary
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clinton's strength. but if you lose iowa, hillary clinton still seems a little vulnerable in new hampshire, but strong overall. important for bernie sanders to get the win the other night. on the republican side, ted cruz has the most to lose tomorrow night. because, again, his strategy rests more than any other candidate on cornering the market on evangelical voters. they are more than 60% of the voting pool on the republican side in iowa. in the cruz theory on this, the cruz strategy is, you corner the market on evangelicals in iowa, you win iowa. you do credible in new hampshire. you don't have to win new hampshire. then you go to south carolina and you win there. you sweep across the south. it's something you take, for instance, mike huckabee who won the caucuses in 2008. when he got to south carolina, he fell short. cruz wants to do better than huckabee did. but to start that, you've got to win iowa. if you are trying to corner the market on the evangelical vote, and you spend a year of your life in iowa going to every
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church you can possibly go to, meeting with every pastor you can possibly go to, and lose to donald trump, does not speak well to your chances of carrying south carolina a few weeks from now. >> steve at the board. the numbers are absolutely fascinating in a crowded field tonight. and we're within 24 hours. we'll take a break here. when we come back, we're waiting for several live events to get under way. chris matthews' conversation tonight with donald trump.
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nonfootball sunday night. the eve of the iowa caucuses. we started the broadcast with chris matthews at our election headquarters in iowa. we go back to chris who had a chance tonight to talk to donald trump. chris?
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>> brian, of course, you want to put the people to sleep tonight thinking dreams of your success and your advantage for them when they get to vote tomorrow. here's donald trump making what i think is a closer. and the close is pretty negative. he's going after the guy who's challenged him all along the way here, ted cruz. he nails him. he said he's even ineligible to be running for president. >> the numbers look good in the polls. you're about five points ahead now. are you going to win? >> i hope i'm going to win. it's an election, who knows. but we have a tremendous amount of relationship with the people of iowa. i've been all over the state. i've been here many times. we've had tremendous rallies. i just got back from two very big rallies. we had endorsement from jerry falwell jr. who was amazing today. the endorsement was incredible. from liberty university. he's seen every candidate, he knows every candidate, and he endorsed donald trump. we have so many other endorsements. sarah palin. even sheriff joe, i don't know
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if you'll like that one, but i like it. we're very firm on illegal immigration. but we've had tremendous endorsements, chris. and the relationship with the people of iowa halls been fantastic. >> do you think it's morally wrong, morally wrong for someone to be elected president who comes from some other country? >> well, what are you getting at? are you talking about ted cruz? >> yes. >> because he was born in canada? well, he was born in canada. i just think that if you look at your constitutional scholars, chris, numerous of them have now come out and said he's not allowed to be president. i guess he can run, but he can't be president. it's a real question mark. it's a real problem that he's got. he's got a lot of problems. he didn't file financial disclosures, citibank and goldman sachs loans. he was born in canada.
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he was a canadian citizen until 15 months ago jointly with the u.s. and he only disputed that 15 months ago and disputed it. he said to me, he didn't know he was a canadian citizen. the fact is, he was born in canada, he lived there for an extended period of time and now he's running. according to constitutional scholars and great constitutional lawyers, he's not allowed to serve as president. >> let's talk about an immediate problem. the last-minute mailer by cruz campaigners. made like an official document, a voting violation for not caucusing in prior elections. the secretary of state has slammed the mailer accusing citizens of iowa of a voting violation on caucus participation or lack thereof is false representation of an official act. >> i've never heard of it before. i guess it's something that has
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been done. it's not allowed to be done. a couple of people that are serious professionals like i'm sure yourself, you may have seen that. chris, i think you've seen it all. have you ever seen anything like this? >> no, i've never heard of this baby. i've heard of some of this stuff on social security organizations saying an official document. i've never heard this particular thing. >> i think it's one of the most disgraceful things i've seen in politics. giving you fs for your voting records. and saying, immediately come and vote. i think it's one of the most horrible things that i've seen in politics. i've seen pretty bad stuff, just like you have. as you know, he's under investigation by the attorney general, or whomever, in iowa. i think what he did to do that, and he knew about it, you know, it's interesting, in canada, he said he didn't know he was a canadian citizen. then he said he didn't know they didn't file his loan that
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goldman sachs and citibank weren't mentioned. he wants to be robin hood. he's hated by everybody. he can't even get the endorsement a very good governor of texas. you can't get an endorsement of your sitting governor of texas. can't get endorsement from one of his colleagues in the senate. not one senator is endorsing him. and he works with them on a daily basis. this ted cruz is terrible. then he says things about me in ads that are so untrue, it's unbelievable. it's unbelievable. he takes an ad and says things that are absolutely unbelievably true. i have a meg a phone more than other people, they wouldn't know what the truth is. he did this voting violation, which is what you're talking about, i don't think i've seen anything in politics so bad. >> let's talk about "the new york times" judgment today. they've endorsed hillary
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clinton. they've endorsed one of your rivals, john kasich. did that surprise you? >> not really. look, "the new york times" is "the new york times." it really doesn't -- i don't think it will have any impact on the race. when "the new york times" endorses a republican, i don't think it will have any impact whatsoever on the race. he's not doing very well. a guy i've actually gotten to like, but his numbers are doing bad. the new polls in iowa, the whole thing just came out, i guess i read it on bloomberg or someplace that i'm leading "the des moines register." it seems to be a respected poll, but i'm leading by five or six points in that one. and doing very well with evangelicals, doing well -- he isn't doing very well in the poll. we'll see what happens. the only poll that matters is the one tomorrow. but the poll did just come out. and i know kasich is not at the top of that poll. and he's very close to the bottom of the poll.
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>> robert joins us from the "washington post." did you notice i asked him, do you think there's something morally wrong with someone from another country being elected president of the united states? he didn't know if i was talking about barack obama or ted cruz. lying guy? that's strong. >> he sees the nomination on the horizon. and he wants to suffocate cruz's candidacy before it can ever get out of iowa with a bounce. he thinks he can win new hampshire. >> how much does he have to beat him by tomorrow to knock him out? >> probably five or ten points. but it becomes a two e-man race unless rubio can get something above 15. >> back to you rachel in new york. >> chris, we'll have more to come for you tonight in our special coverage in the leadup to tomorrow night's caucuses. we've got interviews with bernie sanders and hillary clinton. lots more to come. stay with us. the 88th southern . we had traveled for over 850 miles.
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from new york and points west, welcome back to our preview broadcast on this eve of the iowa caucuses. full disclosure, rachel and i have shared an obsession all day today, and that is the weather in iowa tomorrow. to wit, we have a blizzard watch in effect for much of the state of iowa. as this graphic shows, the first precipitation as early as 3:00 p.m. on the day of the vote, is going to come in not far from omaha, nebraska, in the southwest corner of iowa, moving southwest to northeast. des moines is going to get all the precipitation they want. it's going to start as rain in most places, switch over to snow, and there could be icing. why are we doing weather on the eve of the iowa caucuses? because it's awfully important. especially for, shall we say, older voters like me. they have to really make up their minds to leave the house,
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get in the car, and some of the precipitation is going to be taking place in a critical area of the state at 7:00 p.m. >> right. >> folks are going to be worried, when i get back in the car, what are the conditions going to be like driving home. weather could be a big factor for tomorrow. >> in terms of reading the forecast right now, it looks like if they're going to worry about significant snow in parts of iowa, that is late. but we're still 24 hours out, if that shifts earlier, or if other kinds of wintry mix starts earlier, it may affect people's getting out on the road. i moved to new england about 15 years ago, i have to say that 15 times a year. >> well done. >> for both democrats, and republicans, the party starts tomorrow night at 7:00 local time, 8:00 eastern time. the doors will close at nearly 2,000 caucus sites across the state. but then once the doors are closed and you're in there, it's a very different experience depending whether you're
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caucusing as a democrat or republican. at the republican caucuses, it's pretty simple. get in there, each candidate makes a speech, trying to sell you the idea on their candidate, once the speeches are over, that's it. they vote. republicans hold a secret ballot vote. you basically fill out a slip of paper and drop your ballot into a bucket or basket or something up front. caucus officials count up all those ballots. announce the final tally to the caucus. they report the results back to the iowa republican party headquarters. basically very straightforward. that's the republican side. in terms of the democratic side, forget everything i just told you. on the democratic side, it's not hard, but it's different. first of all, there's no secret ballot. instead, once the doors close on the democratic side and the process starts up, people who were at the democratic caucuses have to get up and physically move themselves into a corner of the room that's designated for
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each candidate, plus one area that's designated for uncommitted voters. then the next thing that happens is what they call a viability test. if a particular candidate doesn't have enough support, if that candidate doesn't have support from 15% of the caucusgoers at a given site, that candidate is deemed not viable. which, of course, is a very sad moment for supporters of that candidate. then, though, it's basically a mad scramble for the other campaigns to try to win over those voters, to try to convince them to come over into a different corner of the room. so if you are a supporter of a non-viable candidate, or if you are an uncommitted voter at a democratic iowa caucus tomorrow, you will be complimented, flattered, wooed. once all of the supporters of nonviable candidates have been reallocated to other groups that have successfully wooed them, then the democrats will figure out who won that caucus.
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i kid you not, that part of it is determined by this mathematical formula. the number of supporters in each corner of the room, multiplied by the number of delegates, awarded at that caucus site, that number is divided by the number of caucusgoers in attendance at that site. i swear, this is how they actually do it. republicans just do it straight up, secret ballot. they count the voters there. democrats do a get up, move yourself to a corner, fight for other people supporters, put it through a giant math equation. in 1972, in 1976, uncommitted actually won the iowa caucuses on the democratic side. the iowa caucuses can be really, really strange. but that is part of why it is so much fun to watch. >> we'll go over this all over again tomorrow night. because it really is strange. i was just giving props to vermont public radio for having done all of this with legos in a web video that came out earlier this week.
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so we'll take another break. when we come back, our conversation with bernie sanders from the campaign trail. fight back fast tums smoothies starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue and neutralizes stomach acid at the source tum, tum, tum, tum smoothies! only from tums
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you are looking live at a bernie sanders event that just got under way in des moines tonight. all of these leading candidates are burning it late into the night. this is it. senator sanders was close to losing his voice earlier today. but he's had some fairly sizeable crowds all day as he has in the home stretch. let's listen in. >> iowa has shown my family and my staff incredible hospitality, and warmness, and we appreciate it very much. this is a beautiful, beautiful state. and it's been an honor to have the opportunity to campaign in it. [ cheers and applause ] the other thing i want to say about the people of iowa.
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and i've been deeply impressed by this. i think iowans understand that they have a very unique role to play in the presidential process. and i believe that they take that role very, very seriously. and i think there are many people who have come out to our rallies, have gone to secretary clinton's rallies, governor o'malley's rallies, they're listening about the choice they want. they accept that responsibility that is given to them. and all of you in iowa should be very, very proud of that. [ cheers and applause ] >> bernie sanders in des moines. also in des moines, chris hayes, who wrangled a conversation not long ago this evening with bernie sanders on the trail. chris? >> brian, you know, from the shear perspective of score keeping, who amasses the most delegates.
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sanders and clinton is so close, that might be two or three delegates. it is the momentum, the expectations, the narrative that comes out of iowa that's so important, particularly as steve was mentioning earlier, for a surging candidate like bernie sanders. if anyone has an interest in expectations for iowa at this point, it should be bernie sanders. i asked him how he defines victory. this is what he said. >> well, obviously it goes without saying, that i want to win. we started at 50 points behind. now the polls are very close. your point is if somebody wins by a few points, somebody loses, the number of delegate difference will be, i don't know, two or three delegates. not a whole lot. obviously we are working hard to win. i hope we do. if there is a large voter turnout, you know what, i think we will win. we're working to create a large voter turnout.
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we have come -- we have advanced 40 or 50 points. we have made a really strong showing. i don't know what the results will be. we'll go to new hampshire, i think we'll do well in new hampshire. in south carolina. i think we have a campaign that is creating a lot of momentum. >> there's a general sense among republicans that i talked to and among democratic sort of political figures, the republicans want you to win. and some are putting their money where their mouth is. should that matter? >> republicans want me to win? well, i think it's like checking some of the national polls. because if you look at some of the recent national polls, i do better against trump than hillary clinton does. if you look at battleground states like iowa, battleground state in new hampshire, batt battleground state we do better. >> there's two ways that i've encountered liberals, center left folks about trump. one is this is the housing bubble and it will end in ruin.
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and the other is, oh, my god, this is a possible thing. i have to reconcile with the possibility i'll wake up on january 2017 and watch that guy take the oath. >> donald trump is not going to take the oath of office. he's not going to be sworn in as president of the united states. i will be beat him badly. because i think aside from his bigotry and the outrageous things that he's saying, his pathological lying, other than that, this is a guy who wants to give huge tax breaks to billionaires, does not want to raise the minimum wage, thinks that wages in america are too high. he's a guy that i think we can beat, and beat badly. >> the event tomorrow night, i don't think people understand this, i think. the event tomorrow night is the democratic party event. the republican and democratic parties are having events to choose their party. it was a decision you made, what is your on eve of the democratic
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caucus night, what is your relationship to the democratic party? how do you describe that? >> well, i've been working the democratic caucus in the house and senate for the last 25 years. >> that's different than the party. >> i've been working in the -- that's what i am. i was a congressman, now i'm a senator. that's what i do. right now i am the ranking member of the budget committee, leader of the democrats. a couple of years ago, i was a chairman of the veterans committee representing the democrats. but i would say that if elected president, i would, to be very honest with you, go about making major changes in the way the democratic party does business. it is insane to me, and i made this point years ago, how can you be a national party and not have a 50-state strategy? how can you ignore the south where poverty is rampant? i think we need a 50-state strategy. and i also believe that we have to make sure that we're getting our funds from working people, and middle class people, small
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donations, rather than being dependent on large donations from the superpacs. those are some of the changes that i would make. >> last question here on foreign policy. do people that care a lot about foreign policy, care about what's happening in yemen and the proxy war waged there, and a peace deal in syria, if that's possible, what -- for those skeptical, that you actually in your gut and in your head, crave knowledge and are invested in these issues? what do you say to them? >> look, nobody can become president of the united states without understanding how serious foreign policy is. look, this is life-or-death stuff. this is war and peace. this is nuclear war. any serious president has got to be deeply involved, has to be -- in foreign affairs, has got to bring the best people in, and has got to do the best that we can to try to address the many, many crises that exist all over
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the world. let me just say this. i understand that secretary clinton has experience in foreign policy, secretary of state for four years. in terms of the most important foreign policy issue of the last 20 years, what was it, it was the war in iraq. i voted -- not only did i vote against the war in iraq, go to my website, go to youtube, hear what i said. what i ended up saying was, my fear about what would happen the day after saddam hussein was overthrown, and much of what i said turned out to be right. i do understand that people think that secretary clinton has a whole lot of experience. she does. judgment matters as well. and i trust my judgment in terms of foreign policy. >> do you trust hers? >> well, let the people decide on that one. she had the same information as i had. i was in the house, she was in the senate. when bush told us how important it was to invade iraq. she voted yes, i voted no.
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>> bernie sanders referencing the fact that he came from 50 points down to be neck and neck on the eve of the caucus. brian, back to you. >> chris, i was going to note the change in tone. we saw just today he now finds the clinton e-mails a serious matter. and he appeared in your conversation to be kind of channeling his inner self to ben and jerry's. >> you could tell as always happens at every campaign, both the campaign around him, they're in a fight now. this is close. whatever they got into this for, they understand they are in the precipice of possibly winning tomorrow. and they want it very badly. >> really interesting conversation with bernie sanders out there in des moines, iowa, earlier today. rachel and i have been joined by two of our friends, lawrence o'donnell is out here with us,
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host of "the last word" here on msnbc. and eugene robinson, pulitzer prize winner, and political analyst. >> bernie between bernie sanders and hillary clinton in iowa. put yourself in a time machine and convince yourself of this eight months ago. how did the democratic race end up like this? >> can't do it. >> it really -- if you were having a conspiracy meeting in the clinton campaign headquarters and you said, you know, we're going to need a democrat to run against her, just for show, kucinich won't do it, who can we get? oh, well, the socialist from vermont who's 74 years old and from brooklyn and he said he's willing to do it. i don't know, we'd love to get someone who could get 10 points, make it look more credible. you know, he has done an amazing thing and there's not one member of the senate who would have predicted it. he highlights better than anyone i've ever seen. the difference between the politics of govern xhg he has
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not been a master of or not that interested in, because he's lived outside of the party system. the politics of campaigning for president. a totally different game. i would submit there is not a democrat in the senate right now who could run a better campaign for president, other than elizabeth warren. think she's the only one who could have run possibly a better campaign for president than bernie sanders. to go up, to be competitive with hillary clinton tonight, within the margin of error in iowa, is extraordinary. >> but how did we get to this point? where both of our major parties were so ignorant of what was happening in their bases? >> that's a good point. >> how did we get to the point where the democrats had no idea that bernie sanders and his message would catch on like this? how did the republicans for heaven's sake get to the point where donald trump and others who have never been elected dog catcher are suddenly in more favored than the elected officials? >> surges are usually, first of
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all, about the weakness of the front-runner. that was true in 1968 when gene mccarthy said, i'm going to run against an incumbent president of the united states. no one understood just how weak lyndon johnson would be if he went into that arena, which he surrendered once he saw gene mccarthy come up there. donald trump steps into an arena, in april in iowa, bush was at taken% and in first place. and it looked like from our distance bush/clinton revisited. it turned out he was an extremely weak front-runner. and there wasn't a strong second-place runner. so now we see the rise of donald trump. >> that's true, lawrence. in fact, you can expand that. i mean, it was said before the campaign how broad and how deep the republican field was. and they turned out not to be -- maybe they were broad and deep but they were kind of paper tigers, really -- >> we expected 17 would drop to 16, 15, 13, down to four or five by now.
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no, you can have a happy dozen. >> there's new incentive to stay in these things, which is a business incentive. people like mike huckabee are in the lecture business. this is a campaign to maintain fame. it is not a campaign to win elective office. that didn't use to be the case. >> we're going to be talking live with former secretary of state hillary clinton in just a few minutes, stay with us. this is how lenders saw me. in my 20s, i was super irresponsible with credit cards. shopping, going out all the time... i knew it was time for experian. they gave me tools to see what helps and hurts my fico score. so i could finally get serious about managing my credit. now lenders see me for who i really am. someone who would never rack up a lot of debt. and... someone who would never follow a band on tour. get serious about your credit. get experian. go to experian.com and start your credit tracker trial membership today.
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this really is the home stretch. lots of candidates doing events tonight including late tonight. this is jeb bush live in davenport, iowa. his event simultaneously with a bill and hillary clinton event in des moines, iowa. bernie sanders in des moines.
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a ted cruz event later in des moines. >> a lot to get to as we enter our second hour of coverage. coming up at the top of the next hour, this is msnbc live special coverage on the eve of the iowa caucuses. stay with us. it comes when your insurance company says they'll only pay three quarters of what it takes to replace it. what are you supposed to do? drive three quarters of a car? now if you had liberty mutual new car replacement, you'd get your whole car back. i guess they don't want you driving around on three wheels. smart. with liberty mutual new car replacement, we'll replace the full value of your car. see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. fettucini with chicken mariand broccoli withs her tender white meat chicken and freshly-made pasta mixed in an alfredo sauce made-from-scratch. because she knows that the most comforting thing about comfort food, is who you're sharing it with. marie callender's. it's time to savor.
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and on long island, where great universities are creating next generation technologies. let us help grow your company's tomorrow, today at business.ny.gov back here with you live on this iowa caucus eve. brian williams alongside rachel mod do you. by this time tomorrow night we're going to be looking at our first sense of how iowa caucusgoers are voting in the very first contest of the 2016 presidential election. >> we are awaiting a hillary clinton event. she's going to be appearing with her husband, former president bill clinton, and her daughter. we heard her granddaughter, charlotte, is also doing events in this home stretch. while waiting for that clinton event which we think is going to
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include her talking live with us here on set by the magic of the telephone, i want to talk a little bit about the republicans and specifically the republicans and their map in iowa. it seems like one of the things we can anticipate about the republican side is that the mantels us a lot about where various candidates need to perform the best and where we should look if we are going to have anything unexpected happen in tomorrow night's results. for that we tender to stove kornacki. >> this is the map from the last time there were republican caucuses in iowa, 2012. purples, rick santorum won the state by a few dozen votes. mitt romney was green. orange was ron paul, a big factor in 2012 as well. what does this tell us about what to expect tomorrow night? there are a couple of areas in particular to pay attention to that are going to offer some clues for what's happening. start up here in the far northwest part of the state. this is a lot of rural area,
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this is called sioux county, not toconfused with sioux city. sioux county was rick santorum's business county in the state, an overwhelmingly rural republican county. in a general election republican candidates are going to get 80%, 90% of the vote here. this is heavily, heavily evangelical christian. this was the backbone of rick santorum's victory in iowa in 2012. ted cruz has pitched his message helpful in this area. but one of donald trump's top supporters in the state sam clove advice is from this part of the state, he's been active here. if donald trump is holding his own or winning up here, that is a great sign for donald trump and a troubling sign for ted cruz. a couple other areas. along the mississippi river here in the eastern part of the state, from dubuque down to davenport, these two old working class cities, the characteristics of these cities and these areas -- blue collar,
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catholic, heavily roman catholic. this is a working class area in iowa. it was for romney and a little bit of paul in 2012. santorum did not go do that well here. the profile, working class, blue collar republican voters. this is where you would expect donald trump to be having some success tomorrow night. let's see how trump does here. this area in the middle of the state, this is key, if marco rubio could surprise people, rubio has really, really concentrated his efforts in these three counties. ames, where the iowa state university is, des moines, the state capital, and right here to the west, dallas, this is the fastest-growing suburban county in iowa. the rubio idea is to get these white collar, professional class republicans excited, motivated, and out to vote. if rubio is going to surprise people you've got to look here. quickly you just look in iowa city and waterloo, these are college towns. if rand paul makes any noise it will come from there. >> when we look back at what happened in 2012, obviously the
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drama was that we didn't know who won iowa for a couple of weeks in the end. there was this confusion that it was maybe a tie. maybe mitt romney had won, no, it was a tie, no, rick santorum won. ultimately he ended up getting something like 34 more votes than mitt romney. when it came time to allocate the delegates ron paul got most of the delegates. are we expecting drama along those lines this year again? >> a couple things to keep in mind about that. first of all, this is a party-run event. this is not run by state election officials. if it's a really close race you can't appeal to the secretary of state or to some public entity to rule on it. you have to appeal to the state republican party. secondly you mentioned sell gate situation from 2012, it takes a few months to allocate convention delegates. the ron paul people kind of gamed that system in 2012, they changed the rules as a result so delegates awarded will be related to what happens tomorrow night. the other thing is the thing about iowa is so much of the state is rural. 99 counties.
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i'm giving outbig ones here. a lot of these counties, a lot of these squares, you're talking about 80, 90, 100, 110 people showing up. santorum won by 20, 30 votes, whatever the margin. because of the county he would get 28 votes, mitt romney would get 24. it takes a long time to get all of those in. that's another complicating factor here. >> steve kornacki at the board with all 99 counties in iowa. steve, thanks. and let's go all the way to the west in iowa to sioux city where, as mentioned earlier, donald trump wrapped up an event tonight. katy tur covering for us. what does he have remaining on the schedule? and what room to call iowa audibles? >> reporter: he has a rally tomorrow quite near des moines and waterloo. then he has that -- what he hopes will be a victory party in des moines later tomorrow night. right now this was anything but a raucous rally, a raucous way to end the day before iowans get out to vote. usually donald trump has very
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big rallies where people are cheering him. he does call and repeats with them sometimes. this was a much more subdued version of him. sitting onstage with jerry falwell jr., it was this informal question and answer, falwell jr. talking about the charitable giving that donald trump has done. it culminated with them giving a $100,000 check to a local charity out here that supports veterans and soldiers. this all comes from that money they were -- donald trump was able to raise earlier in the week when he skipped out on the debate. he's really been trying to embrace this softer version of himself. i think what the campaign sees is that he's been wild and raucous and boisterous and at times extreme and at times ruffling a lot of feathers on the campaign trail the last seven months. tonight they presented a different version of him, someone easier to talk to, a little nicer, the gentler version of donald trump. he's trying to eat away at ted cruz's evangelical support in this state. right now polling suggests that he has the moderate votes in
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this country, or this state, excuse me, locked up. what he is trying to do is eat away at any of the evangelical support he can for ted cruz. you saw jerry falwell jr. up there, you saw him in church this morning swaying to hymns, he's here or he was here in sioux city. what he wants to do just get a little bit more support from that group of voters and they believe that will put them over the edge in iowa and they'll have a very good night tomorrow night. >> katy tur, we're predicting prescription out your way so be careful in your travels across the east. chris matthews in des moines at our election headquarters there. chris, while you were talking earlier, listening to lawrence o'donnell the last half hour, i was thinking about how big a hit the conventional wisdom and those who deal in it have taken here. no one could have predicted a year back any of this.
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you can grab whatever aspect you want. the fall of bush, the rise of sanders, the rise, the appearance of donald trump. in a business, you've been around politics a long time, that thrives on predictions, pays a ton of money to people to go on cable tv and make predictions. what a hit the conventional wisdom has taken. >> well, let's start with citizens united. we thought that the koch brothers and others would run this campaign. all the money they've spent out here, all the big money, pac money, $15 million in iowa for george bush -- i mean, jeb bush, george's son, and brother. nothing, it's not happening. he's running 2% out here. bernie sanders on the other hand, who's running against citizens united as an issue, is really, really scoring on it. it's not just -- there he is. the fact is he's been able to say billionaires are not just buying goods and services with their wealth, they're buying our elections, a powerful message we didn't expect.
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i want to go to steve schmidt and andrea here. the big story tomorrow, we already know from the polling, is the republican party is not the republican party it was. that the bushes, bush is running at 2%, his father and brother won here. now it looks to be cruz and trump especially will dominate the numbers tomorrow. >> when you look at the combined numbers for donald trump, ben carson, and ted cruz, the anti-establishment candidates, the bill has come due for an era of failure by the republican establishment. a failed war. the great recession. the housing bubble. you look at all of the failure on the part of republicans in washington. the complicity in doubling the national debt over the last decade. the corruption of the delayed congress. now you see republican voters across this country in open revolt against the establishment of the party. >> that's the big story, we know based on the polling out here. >> i've been spending time with party leaders, going back and forth, i can tell you that both
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political parties are having a collective nervous breakdown. you've got house and senate members thinking, if trump or cruz is the leader, but actually they think trump might pull some of them in, that cruz would jettison all of it. the democratic side, they think sanders' strength is breaking the party apart. and if trump were the republican nominee they think those reagan democrats you and i remember in michigan, other places, they're going to come over and vote in the democratic race and they could defeat hillary clinton. >> you vote for the republican side. let me ask you what we've been watching in congress in the washington area for now a decade at least, is this dysfunction. this voting against. voting no all the time. the tea party. some certain percentage of the republican party comes in every day to vote no, no, no. that dysfunction i believe has seeped into the presidential process. and now we're basically saying no as the response of the voter. >> you look at the rise of bernie sanders against hillary clinton. certainly senator sanders could
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win here tomorrow. this is systemic failure across the depth and breadth of the country. we have a total collapse of trust in very nearly every institution of the country with the exception of the military. the bonds of trust between the american people in all these institutions is broken. it extends to politics. fill ures of leadership, failures of governance are not contained to the republican party, they exist in the democratic party. we don't talk enough about the kevive thread between a bernie sanders voter and a donald trump voter. both candidates are the candidates talking about the corrupting influence of money and politics. >> talk about the big role model shift. historically the republican party's been the party of whose turn it is. whether nixon or whoever's turn it is. usually a bush. this time it was hillary clinton's turn, right? andrea, you take this. the party seems to be fighting that. they don't want to make it easy. they don't want to make it sure. they want to test these two candidates. even bernie sanders for four or five months perhaps. >> i just ran into barney frank
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who were on with chuck and have been key surrogates here. they are so angry at bernie sanders. they feel that it is a complete rejection of the obama legacy. he would argue differently. but that's what they think, that this is -- that they did the best they could with dodd-frank, it needs improvement, but that they fought for every single vote, they got no help from republicans, and now that bernie sanders is basically rejecting everything that they fought so hard for. now, of course, they made compromises along the way and it is not the progressive legacy that the progressive wing of the party wants. >> martin o'mally tomorrow evening. do you think he'll send a signal to his caucus attenders -- attendees? >> i've got some reporting on that. >> that they may go to hillary if they don't get to 15%? she looks like the ultimate winner still. >> hillary clinton, what the campaign is doing, with this new app they rolled out, they're not just tracking voters. they have the obama playbook
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that defeated her eight years ago. they are figuring out which precincts to go to where they can take delegates away from sanders by shifting people to o'mally and making him viable. >> them to go to o'mally? >> they want to take people and shift them to o'mally in key areas where it looks like sanders is going to win and take delegates away from him, that's the game plan. >> back to brian williams in new york. >> thank you, chris. three of our veterans there in iowa. you've got chris matthews, andrea mitchell, steve schmidt, veteran of the mccain presidential effort, hoped-for presidential effort. >> that's right. the last point they were just making, about what may happen with martin o'mally supporters on the democratic side, it sounds like oar cane math. >> we may need legos for that. >> remay. it's a strategic tactical move that takes a 90-degree turn in the middle of it. it is explicable and one of the things i'm hoping we can ask hillary clinton about. hillary clinton is on her way to
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des moines. we are going to be talking with her live in just a few minutes. we'll have much more ahead. ♪ ♪ (cell phone rings) where are you? well the squirrels are back in the attic. mom? your dad won't call an exterminator... can i call you back, mom? he says it's personal this time... if you're a mom, you call at the worst time. it's what you do. if you want to save fifteen percent or more on car insurance, you switch to geico. it's what you do. where are you? it's very loud there. are you taking a zumba class? do something! get on the floor! oh i'm not a security guard, i'm a security monitor. i only notify people if there is a robbery. there's a robbery. why monitor a problem if you don't fix it? that's why lifelock does more than free credit monitoring
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in des moines, iowa, as the countdown begins to tomorrow's iowa caucus, it's a hot night in the all-purpose room at abraham lincoln high school where they are all gathered and awaiting the arrival of former secretary of state, former senator, hillary clinton. that includes our own business kristen welker. >> you can feel the energy, it's electric. clinton supporters getting really energized in the final days. so is the candidate herself. i've been following her from the moment she first announced and i can tell you that in these final
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days she has really delivered some of her most spirited speeches yet, delivered the final pitch to voters that she says she is the most experienced candidate and the best one to take on republicans in general election. i spoke to one of her campaign officials who told me they're feeling confidence, in part because "des moines register"/bloomberg gave secretary clinton a very slim lead. it's all going to come down to turnout. they say they have the strongest will to get this done. we'll wait and see tomorrow. >> thanks, chris 10. clintons have not had an easy time in iowa. bill clinton won the nomination in 1992. but not before he came in fourth place in iowa. hillary clinton did not win the nomination in 2008. she lost iowa to barack obama in 2008. she also lost iowa to john edwards in 2008.
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she came in third place. lawrence o'donnell, master of strategy -- >> a quick parens thinks. in '92 when bill clinton was running the iowa senator tom harkin was running so everybody said, forget about it. i think the gdp of iowa dropped considerably because the democrats just ignored it basically. >> still, fourth place, 3%. you wear that like a tattoo the rest of your life. >> that absolutely is not second, that's right. >> martin o'mally is the distant third place in all the polls and there's a question as to how many caucuses will his supporters be able to put up, 15% of the total number, and stay viable? >> if any. then there's this trick that you can play. if you are the clinton campaign or the sanders campaign. if martin owe rally, if you see in your caucus gymnasium it looks like he's maybe around 14%, you can say to one of your clinton supporters, go over there, stand with o'mally, that will get him 15%. that means the 15% stays
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solidified in this count. if not, that 15% would then have to disperse and divide between hillary clinton and bernie sanders. and the betting is that it may well lean towards sanders, since he is the -- more of a challenger. >> there was one monmouth poll that -- ppp poll that broke this down in which martin o'mally supporters were asked, who would your second choice be? looks like they do really break toward bernie, which explains why the hillary clinton campaign is saying, we'd rather keep martin o'mally viable than let all his supporters become bernie supporters. >> clinton campaign has the characteristics of incumbency, 100% name recognition, long governing record, it has all the benefits of incumbencies and it has some of the negatives of incumben incumbency. challengers are more likely to go to sanders as we've seen. this trick was invented by the obama campaign. >> i was going to say that. >> 2008.
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>> while cynical, it's perfectly legal given the fact that these are party gatherings. >> it's unfortunate what's legal in the democratic caucuses in iowa. >> it's tactical. it's not ugly if you explain why you're doing it. >> they should switch to the republican rules and just count votes, count the people who show up who are for o'mally, sanders. the complications they have in there now make it virtually indescribable to people in iowa. >> the interesting thing will be whether or not the democratic party is able to retain the sort of growth rate that they've had in their turnout at the iowa caucuses. we saw them go from 60,000 to 120,000 to 240,000 people. obviously they're not going to get more than 400,000 people, double it again for 2016. the turnout projections from people who do that sort of thing, like at "the des moines register" poll, does not seem to indicate a huge new tide of
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caucusgoers. if that number levels off it's not good for bernie sanders, there's question whether or not that's good for the democratic party of iowa. >> if we use the traditional mathematics for turnout, which is percent, this is tiny. this is like a city council race in los angeles. it's down below 20%, usually. >> that's true. >> so the big version of turnout is 21%. this is not -- as much as we concentrate on it, and everybody at these events tonight, it's really fascinating to see. we're going to have this thing that's a little bit difficult to participate in called the caucus tomorrow night. by the way we'd like you to come out the night before and cheer for our candidates. those are committed voters, the ones who are coming out the night before and they're going to come out tomorrow night. >> lawrence o'donnell, talk about the effect on the iowa economy of all this, you want to be in the jet fuel vendor business, you want to be in the bus rental business -- >> folding chair rentals. >> oh yeah, catering, you've got it. speaking of jet fuel. the plane carrying former
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secretary of state hillary clinton has landed in des moines. we are expecting to speak to her by telephone before she enters the aforementioned all-purpose room at abraham lincoln high school. ♪
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warming up the crowd for her event tonight in des moines. we are expecting secretary clinton to talk with us live before she gets on stage there in des moines. joining us now once again is the great steve kornacki. hillary clinton came in third place in iowa in 2008. she knows better than nearly anybody that a loss in iowa could change the whole trajectory of the race, making an inevitable nominee anything but inevitable. what's the outlook for her this time around in iowa? >> that's the interesting thing. when you think back eight years ago, iowa was the beginning of the end for hillary clinton. we talked earlier about how she does have that superdelegate advantage that firewall that seems to be a firewall later in the south. but if she loses tomorrow night, she could find herself very quickly in pretty much an unprecedented situation. let me show you what i mean by that. first of all, this is the latest poll out in iowa. we've been talking about it all night. 45-42, clinton leads sanders. if sanders pulls this thing off, think about this. if sanders catches her tomorrow
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and wins, okay, that's a win for bernie sanders. what happens next? they move to new hampshire. this is reversed, actually. bernie sanders is the one who's ahead right now by nearly 20 points in new hampshire. if you're bernie sanders you're already ahead by 20 points in new hampshire, and you win iowa, you have put together at one-two punch. winning iowa, winning new hampshire. that has only been done twice before in the history of democratic primaries. you saw that in in 2004. john kerry won iowa, won new hampshire, won the nomination. al gore in 2000 won iowa, won new hampshire, won the nomination, and in fact won every single contested primary and caucus in 2000. that's the kind of momentum that has come with winning those first two states. and bernie sanders would become the third person in the history of the modern democratic nominating process to go with a win in iowa, a win in new hampshire. while we say hillary clinton is set up well in those later states, we would be testing something we haven't tested
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before. no one has won the democratic nomination with their opponent sweeping iowa and new hampshire. if she loses tomorrow night, hillary clinton could quickly find herself in that situation. needing to pull that off. >> we're also finding, in terms of the other metrics here, steve, one of the things that was announced today by the bernie sanders campaign is that they raised $20 million in this past month. for context, over the last three months of 2015, the hillary clinton campaign was raising an average of $12 million to $13 million a month. bernie sanders raised $20 million just this past month. so no matter how he comes out of these first two states and how she comes out of these first two states, they both have the resources, they both have the rhetorical ammo, proverbial ammo, to keep this going for a long time. the other thing is like we saw in 2008, a predictable demographic pattern emerge in the 2008 where you could start predicting these states almost ahead of time. there were clinton states there were obama states.
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it's early but we are seeing a framework of a demographic pattern that could keep sanders in this thing for a while. >> steve kornacki at the board, again with the interesting math emerging on this eve of the iowa caucuses. and i'm now told former secretary of state hillary clinton has been able to join us by telephone after landing in des moines. madam secretary, thank you very much for being with us. i know you are traveling as a family right now in this past 24 hours with your husband, your daughter, your granddaughter, and son-in-law in tow. do you think all of them are surprised to be in iowa at this point of the campaign? meaning, was this always planned to be there en masse? >> oh, absolutely. you know, it is something that i've been looking forward to, of course. chelsea and bill have been doing a lot of events for me. not only here in iowa but in other places. which has really been terrific
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because of the reaction they get. and then i wanted the whole family together as we go through this first contest with the caucuses tomorrow night. >> madam secretary, a surrogate of yours, patty doyle, said today that every day senator sanders is "inching closer and closer" to being an everyday politician. surrogates rarely speak without permission of the boss. is that your position? on your competition? >> well, look, i think we are seeing the contrasts drawn in this election, which is more than appropriate. it's timely. but i'm very proud of the democratic side. because we have focused on issues. we do have substantive differences on issues but if you compare that with what we see on the republican side, which is mostly insults, i think it's giving potential caucusgoers and
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voters a way of comparing, contrasting, and making up their minds. and i think that's healthy. it's good for the electorate to have that opportunity. >> on the democratic side, were you surprised today after his comment at the debate about your e-mails that was welcomed by the democratic party, he changed today to calling it a serious matter. did that take you by surprise? >> well -- you know, he's been moving toward a more negative campaign for some weeks now. and i'm disappointed because i think he had made it clear he wanted to run on issues and he wanted to run a positive campaign. that's really one of his claims. so i'll let him speak for himself and his campaign. i'm going to continue to talk about what not only iowans but americans are talking to me about, and i'm on my way to my
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last big rally here in des moines at lincoln high school and i'm really looking for-ward to it. people have been working so hard for so many months. and i feel good, i feel like we've got a great organization, and we'll see what happens tomorrow night. >> madam secretary, it's rachel maddow. thank you for talking with us. a question about your other opponent. we've had some reports that your campaign supporters are planning to cross over at some caucuses to join martin o'mally supporters, basically as a tactical move to keep o'mally's campaign viable, to deny martin o'mally supporters the chance to defect to bernie sanders. is that part of your plan? are you encouraging that? >> you know, it's the first i've heard of that, rachel. i have no additional information. i know that as you get down to the caucuses, i experienced that back in '08, and apparently it's quite a tradition. people are standing in one corner, moving to another
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corner. so we'll just wait till the music stops and see where everybody is. >> let me ask you about one very specific iowa policy issue where senator sanders has taken a stand, he's running ads on it, he's campaigned on it, and i don't know your position on it. that's this planned backen crude oil pipeline that has been proposed for running through iowa. it's got a lot of people on the democratic side of the aisle up in arms. senator sanders strongly against it. do you have a position on that pipeline? >> i've spoken out against it on numerous occasions. because i've said that, although it is a state issue, this particular permitting process is the province of the state of iowa, it's not a federal government decision, all of these pipeline decisions need to be looked at in a much broader context. my goal is to move us toward clean, renewable energy. this particular pipeline is not a natural gas pipeline, as i understand it. it's an oil pipeline.
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and i think we should not be making these ad hoc decisions. we ought to be looking at how we have an energy transition. so i've said we need to look at every element of it. i've urged the state to do so. the health, environmental. more than that the overall energy needs of the mid west. and beyond. so i've spoken out against it. i think it is something that deserves a lot of attention before it's just rubber stamped. >> secretary clinton, bernie sanders' campaign has announced late today they raised a huge amount of money last month, they raised $20 million in one month. is he raising more money than you are at this point? and are you raising enough money to still win and still have gas in the tank for the general election if this goes a very long time in terms of this fight for the nomination? >> oh, i have no doubt about that. i mean, we're going to have whatever resources we need to go
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until we secure the nomination. and i think that the people who are supporting me have been absolutely terrific. they gave us the opportunity to have a record-breaking first year. and net, of course, rachel, i'm not only raising money for myself, i'm raising money to help democrats up and down the ballot. something i care deeply about. i want to rebuild the democratic party in a lot of states so that we have a pipeline and we can begin to take back governorships, legislatures, as well as try to take back the u.s. senate and make progress in the house. and we will have the resources to compete. we have a lot of momentum. and we have a lot of energy and enthusiasm. i'm looking forward to the week ahead and new hampshire and then
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beyond. and it's going to be a great campaign. i'm ready. i've always thought this was going to be a good contest. it certainly is turning into one. and i think i'm going to be successful in making my case to democrats and then going on and running against and defeating whoever the republicans put up. >> madam secretary, before we unleash you on the forces inside the gym at lincoln high school, one final question. compared to a lot of others you do have a well-financed campaign. you're doing your own polling as opposed to waiting for newspapers to come out with theirs. how optimistic are you? how much sleep are you budgeted for tonight into tomorrow? after all, facing a tough one in new hampshire where you're battling a neighboring senator. >> well, brian, it's good to be ahead going into the home stretch tomorrow.
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but look, this is obviously a very tight race. and everybody is just going to work till the last minute. we're going down to the wire. eve every caucusgoer marts. i've been telling folks not to worry about the weather reports. there's not going to be a blizzard before midnight so i hope everybody will still come out who was planning to come out. and i've been all over the state making the case that i'll be a president who will make a real difference in people's lives. and i don't think americans can wait. i think we've got to get to work. i have a track record of producing results. and that's what i think is going to lead me to the nomination. >> madam secretary, thank you very much for calling in to us tonight prior to what's believed to be your final rally before calling it a night on this eve of the iowa caucus. former secretary of state hillary clinton. lawrence o'donnell, gene robinson have rejoined us in our studios in new york. lawrence, one of the coolest things about you is you have
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written 16 episodes of "the west wing." but not even the best hollywood writer can get quite right the level of ragged exhaustion when you are inside a campaign, when you're the candidate, when you are the body man or woman, when you're in the media covering a campaign. it is incredible and it's a harrowing time. >> i created the ice -- a presidential candidate had to put his hand in ice from all the handshaking. it's also voice maintenance, people lose their voices when it comes down to the wire. it is just this -- they need tonight to be showing this burst of energy and try to create a contagion on local iowa tv. the late-night news tonight, they want to see the candidates are out there, they're getting cheers, all that stuff. that's what tonight's events are about. >> gene, hang on one second.
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welcome back on this caucus eve. if you've been with us you've seen the anatomy of a rally tonight through correspondent hallie jackson who was in basically an empty room except for the riggers and audio and visual people. the crowd starting to pick up on the grounds of the iowa state fair in des moines. >> reporter: the room's filling up. not everybody who's come out is necessarily a supporter of senator ted cruz yet. i've got paul and jill here. thanks for talking with us. tell me why you gave up your sunday night to come out and listen to a political speech. >> we gave up our sunday night for simple reasons. we went to see the top four candidates. this is the one we hadn't seen yet as far as republicans. we'll be able to make our decision tonight so when we caucus tomorrow night it will be very clear. >> you're undecided. who are your top four? >> you've got trump, ben carson,
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rubio, and ted. >> who's in the lead for you right now? >> well, we'll find out shortly. right now it's between rubio and trump. >> how about you? i know david, you're a cruz guy, right? >> cruz guy, yeah. >> tell me why, why did you look him? >> he's good on all my issues. i'm an issues person, not really a personality person. he's good on my issues. he's good on second amendment, he's good on pro-life, he's good on all my issues, good for defense. >> you've seen him three times this week. that's dedication. >> wait, this is a new week. this is the first time this week. >> he's been out wednesday, yesterday, today. that's the kind of range of voters and caucusgoers you get here in iowa. >> hallie jackson in des moines, iowa, at the cruz rally. that's iowa. and by the way, those are the folks you want if you're a candidate. >> absolutely. >> just as people in new york and los angeles say, i want to
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see "bridge of spies" and straight outta compton" before the academy awards, they want to see their four top candidates. >> and they expect to see their candidates in person and perhaps have a conversation with them and grill them on their issues. you know, it was fascinating earlier listening to chris hayes' interview, we heard your interview with secretary clinton. they both sounded as if they're ready to settle in for a bit of the campaign for a while. >> that's true. >> and nobody was talking about a knockout blow. because we all know how iowa and new hampshire line up. and so it looks like it's going to go on for a while. rachel, as we diddi years ago, we're going to be counting delegates. it's going to be all about the delegates. >> state delegate consistent eg >> hillary clinton has a big delegate lead superdelegates. >> which count. which add up to that total
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number. >> they super count. >> i thought i would never have to say that word, superdelegate, again. >> it's early yet. we might not have to. let's go back to our friend chris matthews in iowa right now with jerry reid and steve schmidt. >> i am with jerri reid and with steve. i want toe found the voter who explains to me the cruz support level. he said he didn't care about personality. by the way, the guy kept look like he had much personality either. he said, i like him on the issues. i thought that was great. he probably likes me saying that, this guy. he's a tough-looking customer, baseball hat. let me ask you, i understand i think the trump thrill. wild, exciting, funny, like a standup comic, a rich guy, running against the establishment. cruz has a much more somber approach. the fact that that guy, that brooding face that hallie got out of that guy, i don't care about personality, i care about
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issues, he's with my issues. that was a good sampling. >> cruz reminds me of the people who read redstate.com. they sit there and write diaries about specific issues they care about. he's is national review, the standard. the intellectual movement conservatives who don't really care about personality. >> bill buckley had more joy than this guy. >> he's not a joyful character but it isn't a joyful race. even rubio is the emperor of doom at this point. it's youering and the country's going downhill. >> let me suggest two candidate hot may win tomorrow night who both have focus and joy. they both have it in common. trump, focus, attacking everybody else in civilization. and joy, he's having the time of his life. bernie sanders at the age of almost 74 is having the time of his life and everybody knows where he stands. focus, joy. and their opponents don't have either. maybe they have one, they don't have both. >> they're both viewed by the electorate as authentic and honest. >> maybe that counts for the joy. >> there's no concealment to
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them that they're rejecting that archetype of going here, saying one thing to one group, another to a different group here. >> bernie's been saying the same thing, according to howard dean, for 15 years. >> you have that consistency. and this election cycle where people are rejecting status quo, craving that authentic messaging. donald trump's case, he has tapped into the vein of the republican consciousness in this country. these voters believe the country's not great anymore. they believe that barack obama has succeeded in his mission to change america. they believe that he has succeeded because the republicans in the congress have been collaborationist and complic complicit. >> the way trump makes those points is hilarious. he's laughing, they're laughing. he's saying, canada, canada, canada, everybody knows it's a game. >> a master communicator having fun. a raucous eye to american politics, donald trump's embracing it. >> hillary knows -- i like hillary personally and
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politically but everybody knows she can't wait to get in the oval office with the flip chart and the staff and start figuring out education policy and full funding for title 20. she don't like this campaigning. >> i think she's enjoying it more. i'm seeing a little bit more -- >> you see joy there? >> the reality is -- what steve said about tapping into the emotions of the party, i think bernie sanders is doing a version of the same thing. i've got to tell you the two big issues that will evoke significant emotion and negative emotion when it comes to progressives, to very liberal people, number one that the big banks, nobody went to jail after the great recession. there's this feeling that the obama administration had the opportunity -- >> give me the rest of that sentence. people took speaking fees from goldman sachs. >> bought and paid for and they let the bankers get away with it. that's one of the emotional triggers bernie sanders is pulling. the other is the affordable care act, that grueling, ugly, horrible process we watched in 2009. the pragmatists look at that and say the aca was actually an incredible achievement that
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barack obama brought about, you also have democrats who believe somehow the president could have gotten -- >> excuse me, i think the republican party has been a rejectionist party for a couple of years. the democratic party has tried to be an accommodationist party and that has bugged the left. they don't like it from the clintons especially. >> i don't see where accommodation on the democratic side has helped. i will say to joy's point about hillary clinton. one of the extraordinary misjudgments of the mood of the country, after she left the secretary of state's office, as someone who is going to run for president of the united states as a prospective candidate, taking six-figure speaking deals from all these banks. extraordinary disconnect with the zeitgeist of the democratic party in that decision-making. >> i'm sure it looked like a good idea at the time. you've mentioned something important we were talking about, and brian and rachel, i think it's the embrace of hillary clinton of barack obama. for a lot of good reasons. they are very close politically and ideologically.
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also because the african-american vote is hillary's lifeline and she knows it and they're very, very loyal as a people to the president. >> certainly visible during the event in south carolina. thanks all the way west to des moines, election headquarters there. we'll fit in another break. we're on the ragged edge of a couple of final events tonight across the state of iowa going into the iowa caucuses tomorrow. was engineered... ...to help sense danger before you do. because when you live to innovate, you innovate to live. the all-new audi q7. a higher form of intelligence has arrived.
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this is a live shot of lincoln high school in des moines, iowa, where the final clinton campaign rally on the eve of the iowa caucuses is due to start momentarily. i will say one of the very exciting things about covering iowa is that it is not a primary, it is a caucus.
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and one of the great cross tabs in "the des moines register" poll that came out right before the voting starts tomorrow said that 45% of republican voters, republican caucusgoers, 30 percent of democratic caucusgoers, consider themselves to be still persuadable. and there isn't persuasion that happens in the voting booth in a primary the way that iowans will be trying to persuade each other at these live events, 200 different site across iowa tomorrow. that uncertainty, the closeness of polls and the fact that people are willing to talk it out amongst themselves and that's how we'll decide, it's not quaint, it's awesome. it's exciting. >> and if you're living in iowa, if you grew up there, this is part of the family business. and it feels very, very real around about tonight. also important to remember, what a serious business it is. somewhere in a limousine or an suv or a holding room in the hallway of a high school or a hotel, a young campaign aide is right now handing the candidate
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a power bar and an apple juice about that big. and that candidate is whoever they are the future head of the free world. as we like to say. that's where this process ends up. bernie sanders today became the latest candidate to be given, for example, secret service protection, which by my count makes it four. there is always a reason for that. has to be approved by the president. but it is seldom ever turned down. but that will remind you just how serious business this is. all of these campaigns are on the move. tomorrow that will mean snowy roads and air space that is crowded. for us, it means handing all of you good people off to a reairing of this morning's "meet the press" which is very much jermaine on the political conversation we're having here tonight. among our thanks, our team at election headquarters out in des moines, iowa, being captained by chris matthews, et al. here in our studio, lawrence
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o'donnell, eugene robinson, all our friends including steve kornacki at the big board with all 99 counties. >> memorized without labels on them. >> all memorized without labels. you want to ask this guy, where's sioux county? he's going to show you where it is. there's no cheat sheet for him. incredible night, all of it a preview for tomorrow. >> tomorrow night we're going to be here starting 6:00 p.m. eastern. the caucuses, if you are an iowan and watching us, your doors close at your caucus at 7:00 p.m. local time, 8:00 eastern. you've got to be in there before 7:00 p.m. our coverage will start 6:00 p.m. on the east coast and we'll go as long as it takes. sometimes these things get called 90 minutes after the doors closed, sometimes like last year it took 16 days on the republican side. so pack accordingly. >> we'll see you 16 days from now. as we review elements of the clinton political family are arriving at lincoln high school. daughter chelsea, former
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president and husband bill clinton, all a buildup to the hillary clinton rally tonight. for all of us here good night, we'll see you tomorrow. and quit a lot, but ended up nowhere. now i use this. the nicoderm cq patch, with unique extended release technology, helps prevent the urge to smoke all day. i want this time to be my last time. that's why i choose nicoderm cq. and clean and real and nowhere to be,o, and warmth and looking good, and sandwich and soup and inside jokes, and dan is back! good, clean food pairs well with anything. the clean pairings menu. 500 calories or less. at panera. food as it should be.
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it neutralizes stomach acid and is the only product that forms a protective barrier that helps keep stomach acid in the stomach where it belongs. for fast-acting, long-lasting relief. try gaviscon®. who do we want?! >> trump! >> when do we want him? >> now! >> trump is right and americans know he's right. >> when mexico sends its people, they're bringing drug, they're bringing crime. they're rapists. >> trump is acting in a very old and shameful american tradition. every so often, like a fever, anti-immigrant feeling arises. >> i have -- >> excuse me, sit down. you weren't called. sit down. >> what you see is what you get. he's genuine. he's the real deal. >> he has tapped into a part of the electorate that is, i think, deeply angry about the state of the economy. >> how stupid are the people of iowa?

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