tv All In With Chris Hayes MSNBC March 18, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm PDT
>> all right. >> thanks to the round table, kristen welker, beth fouhy and that's hardball for now. thanks for meeting with us. "all in with chris hayes" starts now. ♪ tonight on "all in". >> if you want someone to grab a beer with, i may not be that guy -- >> the most hated man in washington is starting to see some love. >> i'm very much appreciated governor romney's kind tweet today. we're seeing republicans coming together. plus, what would a contested convention look like? >> we have a pretty good count. all of a sudden we have another candidate for president, so you got to go back around the horn again. >> we'll show you what happened last time. then, james sanders -- >> welcome -- >> meets sheriff joe arpaio. >> my wife is a tough lady and she doesn't take ambushes easy. and there's something really fishy about this kkk grand dragon claiming he's backing the democrats. when "all in" starts right now.
good evening from new york, i'm chris hayes. it has come to this, the republican establishment is now embracing a man that possibly hates more than any other -- certainly more than any other member of the party, ted cruz. in an effort to prevent donald trump's hostile takeover of the gop. 2012 gop presidential candidate mitt romney who was campaigning in ohio with john kasich just four days ago announcing this afternoon that in the utah nominating caucuses on tuesday he will vote for cruz, quote, the only path that remains to nominate a republican rather than mr. trump, is to have an open convention. at this stage, the only way we can reach an open convention is for senator cruz to be successful in as many of the remaining nominating elections as possible. romney added a vote for governor kasich is future contests makes it extremely likely that trumpism would prevail. campaigning in utah this afternoon, kasich played down romney's announcement.
>> look, mitt's fine. this is his view. he is entitled to it. frankly, i don't think anybody will have enough delegates to get to the convention. you know, i'm the only one who can beat hillary clinton. i mean, that's what the polls show. so maybe they ought to knock it off and get behind me? i mean, this is -- it's okay. it's fine. we'll just move beyond it and we're going to keep doing our thing. >> trump took to twitter to respond to romney's decision. he professed to welcome the news quote failed presidential candidate mitt romney the man who choked and let us all down is now endorsing a lying ted cruz. this is good for me, exclamation point. cruz trumpeted romney's move during a visit to the arizona border. >> mitt romney observed today f you want to beat donald trump, cruz is the only campaign that can do it. that's why he is voting for me in utah and governor romney explicitly observed that a vote for john kasich only helps donald trump. >> despite the fact that as
these headlines make clear most everyone in washington really just can't stand ted cruz. the establishment is holding its nose and coming around. yesterday, senator lindsey graham vowed, quote, help ted any way i can despite having once joked if you killed ted cruz on the senate floor and held the trial in the senate, no one would convict you. politico reports that marco rubio who just weeks ago referred to cruz as a liar is now close to endorsing his former rival. >> hopefully there's time to still, you know, prevent a trump nomination, which i think would fracture the party and be damaging to the conservative movement. >> trump currently has 685 delegates, leaving him 552 short of locking up the nomination before the convention. republicans have reason to believe they can keep him below the magic number of 1237, particularly if they can unify behind a single trump alternative. that's because republican voters have not consolidated blind the front-runner as the primaries unfolded the way they have in the past. this chart shows the share of
the gop primary vote by state romney for 2012. that's on top. you see it's verse trump in this cycle. the romney line tilts up. he gains steam more and more people supporting him as time goes on. the trump line is nearly flat. even as trump keeps winning, his percentage of the vote is holding steady at an average around 35%. even in the states that just voted in tuesday, huge numbers of republicans say if trump and hillary clinton are the nominees, they'll seriously consider third party candidate. 45% in ohio, 43% in illinois and missouri. you don't just see this in the numbers it's right there in the twisting and turns you'll see if republicans are asked if they'll vote for trump. >> you're a republican. >> that's right. >> if donald trump is the republican nominee, are you going to vote for him? >> susan, i'm not going to answer. don't ask that. >> can you support him? >> well, look, i've never voted for a democrat for president. i doend intend to start now, but like a lot of people, i'm watching to see what's going to happen by the time we get to this convention. >> i'm not saying i would vote
for hillary clinton by any chance, i'm saying i don't know what i would do if trump became the nominee. >> joining me american enterprise institute resident scholar norm ornsteen it's worse than it was. norm, this has been something you've been chronicling and shouts from the rooftops that the republican party is veering in a direction that's unsustainable in the history of american politics, your reaction to watching today the party attempt to coalesce behind ted cruz to stave off donald trump. >> you know, you have to look with bafflement and wonderment at a party that is careened completely off the tracks with a self-inflicted wound, chris. you're absolutely right about ted cruz. in more than 45 years of watching the senate, i've seen a lot of senators who drive their colleagues do distraction. never anything like cruz. the idea that cruz would end up as the candidate of the
establishment, which itself would fracture the party, shows how much they're floundering because they've created a situation and they can't get out of it. >> there is an argument being proposed by many conservatives that this phenomenon is essentially kpoj nis to the republican party, has been thrust upon them and is a product of media coverage plus celebrity plus this sort of unique phenomenon of donald trump and the brokenness of the way that we follow politics. do you think that's true? >> you have forgotten of course it's all the fall of barak obama as well. >> that's the other argument, yes. >> none of it is true. there are a lot of things that brought about a donald trump. and certainly the way the immigration issue has been a flash point for a lot of unease and concerns of working class white voters out there, displaced in the economy and feeling as if they're losing their place in the society, that's a part of it. but i really do believe that the leadership of the republican
party, the strategy that it's pursued over a 20-year period but especially since obama became president, trashing government itself, delegitimizing not just the president but the entire process leads to the two candidates that we have that are the dominant ones now. people who have stepped as far away from politics as we have known it with the republican party, within the republican party, and as its approach the democrats over the last number of years. and as tom and i wrote in the first edition of the book and the new one coming out as well, a party that's contempt chews you of science, of facts that relies more heavily now on these outside tribal media that promote a pock liptic -- is getting what it deserves. >> you watched this party operate. can they pull it off? can they unit and block him from getting the nomination? >> i don't see how they can make that happen without causing an
even deeper fissure or fracture of what's going on. i don't see how donald trump ends up with less than 1,100 delegates. to take the nomination away from somebody in that circumstance, never happened before, is going to lead to, i think, as trump said riots but also division in the party that is going to take a long time to heal. i have to say, chris, you could look at it with some showdownen fraud, but we're going to suffer as a consequence. >> norm ornsteen, thanks for your time tonight. joining me now sabrina and tim. sa bria, you spent a year covering marco rubio. he bowed out this week officially. i think the consolidation around cruz is basically a final stage in this sort of grief process of the republican party that not only rubio is gone but rubioism is dead. >> absolutely. i think that a lot of the party was waiting to see what would
happen in florida. it was marco rubio's last stand. and as you mentioned in your opening there, you look at lindsey graham of all people who has now come around and supported ted cruz. well, he had earlier said that choosing between donald trump and ted cruz is the difference being shot and poisoned. so you really know what the contempt is toward ted cruz by his colleagues in the senate. he called mitch mcconnell of course a liar on the senate floor. he certainly has no real friends there other than maybe mike lee of utah. at this point they do believe he is the only way they could stop donald trump from outright securing the number of delegates and i think more importantly what they see in ted cruz is less of a damaged -- less damage being potentially done to the party's brand both in november and in the long term because donald trump, of course, at this point has offended virtually every possible minority, offended women, offended muslims and i think they're looking how can they salvage the image of the republican party. >> tim, you and i had a discussion 2013 in the midst of the fight of immigration reform bill that rubio was one of the
chief architects of and it was notable that he had kind of joined with democrats to pass this bill, pass the senate. you and i talked about the consequences of this. we talked particularly about this thesis that the best path forward for the republican party or one path forward might be trying to get missing white voters back into the party. >> yep. >> and that this trajectory of rubio and rubioism that's now officially dead was not going to go anywhere and we speculate a little bit about what we might see. take a look at this clip. >> working class voters who are black and who are hispanic, they have a home in the democratic party just because naturally that's the way the parties line up. working class voters who are white, this they don't have a home in the democratic party if they're not liberals and they look at romney and didn't have a vote there. the way to go after the working class voters, i think, is a free market populism, saying obama nomics like a lot of bush nomics was enriching the well connected. government is growing and government growth is enriching the well connected. >> this is interesting. this is a third path out of the
wilderness would be a class war pop ewism. there's a ross perot. breaking free of the kind of donor class of the gop to get there is going to be very difficult. >> okay. so there's a lot there that i think is actually quite on the money there. what stage are we at now in this -- how does that compare to your analysis back then? >> i think that what happened is i saw that populism had the nerj in the party. the tea party was largely a pop ewe lus phenomenon. i thought maybe that populism could be channelled into a lib tearism of free market or conservativism. donald trump said the way to harness this is through his immigration, protectionism, the racism, all of that stuff. so i think i was right that populism was going to be the next waive of the republican party and maybe it was wishful thinking i thought that populism could be harnessed into free
market stuff. i do think it was possible and now maybe that ship has sailed. >> that's the question for you. what do you make of this last stand? here is romney, alex burns noting that romney matters for a narrow and important reason. cracking 50% of the utah means a big blow to john kasich. do you approve of this sort of final stand? do you think it's going to work? >> well, so going to work, nothing is going to work right now for the republican party. i mean, this is being poisoned or being murdered. do you want to do something that's going to look somewhere from a little bit like a cue to a lot like a cue by keeping trump off the ballot or do you want to have trump on the ballot. neither of those are good. the fact is that a lot of working class voters who trump brought in will not stick around the republican party for a ted cruz or for anybody else. and so that's part of the problem. and then on the other hand, a lot of the conservatives, you know, like the party of cruz and rubio are not going to stick around for a trump. so i think it's trying to beat
trump is worthy. i'm not engaged in the balancing act between is it worse to have trump or is it worse to have a cue of trump? >> sabrina, there's a lot of talk to donors offering his support to cruz. do you anticipate he will also come out and sort of be the next sthu drop in this kind of unified front to mix metaphors? >> well, yesterday when he spoke to reporters on capitol hill, he was reluctant to offer an endorsement. he said he was offering his opinion that ted cruz is the on conservative left in the race but certainly he is signaling what he believes about the remainder of the field and i think there's a lot of pressure on him because there's a lot of pressure to coalesce around alternative to donald trump and i think that he might face some criticism if he were reluctant to put his support behind ted cruz it might come off as bitter. but of course they also had a very nasty fight during the -- >> extremely. >> marco rubio called ted cruz a liar repeatedly. i think it would be -- again it goes back to the idea that this
is where we are now where they have no other choice but to hold their nose and support ted cruz. >> everyone has statements now that they can't walk back that -- romney's statement on facebook today about donald trump are the kind of words that you can't pull back in and say now i'm supporting them. people have broken that it will be hard to put back together. thank you both. that was fun. >> thank you. >> thanks, yis. >> coming up, intensity showdown, bernie sanders has joe arpaio ambushed hi wise. the last time republicans faced an open convention. later, there are signs that either trump or cruz atop the gop ticket could be very bad news for republicans in congress. is that congressional majority threatened? that and more ahead. is it becoming a better professor by being a more adventurous student? is it one day giving your daughter the opportunity she deserves?
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just joined the campaign, a man ted cruz once called his role model and famous for spearheading financial deregulation, for getting rid of the glass deglekt and crucially for pushing through a provision that ensured virtually no regulation of the complex financial instruments known as derivatives including credit swaps why in 2008 "time" magazine blamed gramm. what could possibly go wrong? find fast, all-day sweet relief behind the pharmacy counter with claritin-d. [ upbeat music ] strut right on past that aisle... ...and tell your stuffed up nose to stuff it, with claritin-d. a non-drowsy allergy medicine combined with the best oral decongestant. it starts working in as little as 30 minutes. so you can get back to living the good life. live claritin clear, with claritin-d.
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tents, four. and they all lost. i tried to get hillary down here but she's too smart. she won't come to the tents. i would even give her a free pair of pink underwear. >> joe arpaio, the notorious scandal plagued sheriff is known for many things the anti-immigrant shf is one donald trump most ardent supporters. he went after hillary clinton and arpaio, who faced legal sanctions for the justice department for discrimination crossed paths with jane sanders, wife of bernie sanders. she went to visit marco pa county so called tent city and outdoor detention center. >> jane, welcome to tent city. >> thank you. >> want to talk about politics and you say one thing before we go any further. >> okay. >> you have a right, i'm a big
trump guy. i endorsed him. >> that's fine. >> and i stick by him. >> uh-huh. >> and -- but this is america. we all have a right -- >> then i should tell you, i'm a big sanders supporter. i endorsed him and i'm sticking by him. so, we'll agree to disagree on that and maybe some other things. >> now, if you're looking for the best negative endorsement you could find in arizona days before the democratic primary, joe arpaio is about as good as it gets and bernie sanders didn't hold back, speaking earlier today about his wife's visit to the jail. >> while she was there to talk to some of the families who are impacted, she was met by the sheriff who kind of ambushed her. as i said, it is easy for bullies like sheriff arpaio to pick on people who have no power. if i'm elected president, the
president of the united states does have the power. watch out, joe. >> sanders has spend much of the week in the west campaigning in arizona, utah and idaho, all must-win states for him on tuesday if he has a chance of catching up to hillary clinton's sizable delegate lead. joining me now tad devine. tad, you guys made the argument that basically the race is at half-time. that the structure of the primary has been such that states that are more advantageous to hillary clinton have come first. how well do you have to do -- expect to do on tuesday? >> well, you know, we have to do very well not just on tuesday but for the rest of the process, chris. we have three important events on tuesday. bernie has been in all three straits, gone from the canadian to the mexican border today campaigning through the west. we'll try to win those states next tuesday. hillary has some advantages in arizona. lot of early vote, lot of older votes, groups she's done well
with. we're closing hard. one of the things we saw in all these states, and last tuesday like missouri and illinois, bernie closes strong. hillary's leads, i don't think they're safe right now. >> throughout this campaign, you focussed on pledged delegates, not superdelegate. there's two reasons, hillary clinton has hundreds more superdelegates that vowed to support her than you do, but more first principle democratic belief that the votes and the voters, the democrat party should subside as opposed to the party elders who represent the superdelegates. why this exchange between rachel maddow and bernie sanders was interesting. take a look. >> well, you know, i don't want to speculate about the future and i think there are other factors involved. i think it is probably the case that the candidate who has the most pledged delegates is going to be the candidate. but there are other factors. and the other factors will be the strength of each of us in
taking on the republican candidate. what i think is most important to all of the delegates, including the superdelegates, is that we have a candidate who will win and not allow donald trump to end up in the white house. >> now, that was -- the question there was should the person with most pledged delegates get the nomination. senator sanders refused to just say yes. i mean, that was surprising to me. >> well, chris, listen, i think -- i agree with everything bernie just said. listen, it's very important who wins the most votes who wins the most delegates. that's a big part of the process. we are going to work hard to win the most pledged delegates between now and the time that voting ends in mid june. but i think democratic party as a whole is going to take a hard look at both of our candidates when this process is over. i think they're going to say, who will be the strongest democrat to represent us in november. who can stop trump or even cruz. i think that will factor in. so we're trying to win the most delegate -- most pledged
delegates. i think we have a real shot to. clinton people say that's not reasonable or that we can't do it. we believe we can. we have to win a lot of states. we have to win a lot of delegates. if we do by the time we finish, we think we can be there. >> okay. on monday, apack, the sort of self build proisrael lobby is having their annual conference in washington, d.c. there are five candidates remaining in the race. four will be speaking. one that won't be is senator sanders. he released this statement today, i would very much have enjoyed speaking at the aipac conference. obviously issues impacting israel and the middle east are the utmost important to me. i'll be traveling through west and the campaign schedule prevents me from attending. there are people who will interpret any excuse of scheduling in a campaign to basically be b.s. why shouldn't they in this case? >> well, because, you know, listen when i said we have a lot of delegates to make up and we have to win states and delegates to do it, i meant it. a day to fly back to the east
coast, a day to fly back to west coast, we would miss a day or two and a half of campaigning. we have big events not just next tuesday in the three states that are up. washington state, that's a very important contest for us. bernie will go and travel there. there's an event in wyoming after wisconsin. >> let me stop you there. i want to press you. there's two camps of people. there are camps of people who aligned with the politics of aipac, particularly on israel. extremely supportive of the israeli government and claims and handling of the occupying territories. there are others who are critical of that, each of whom are interpreting this as essentially a repuke of aipac's politics. are you telling them not to interpret it that way? >> yes, i am. if aipac wants to hold this meeting in salt lake city, i promise we'll show up for it. it's a logistical issue. bernie will send his remarks. no, this isn't a signal of
anything that we're very serious about winning states next week and the weeks thereafter to try to win the nomination. >> tad devine, great things. appreciate it. >> thank you, yis. >> the day before the states vote,ly get a chance to talk with the candidate himself. bernie sanders will join me on the eve of his next big election challenge right here 8:00 p.m. eastern on monday. you do not want to miss it. coming up, the 1976 republican convention hadn't been talked about much, this much, since 1976. why that is ahead. when heartburn hits
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what appears to be the final key suspect in the paris terror attacks on november 13th has been captured alive and it's stunning to consider four months today ago we were in paris. i was in the st. denis neighborhood on the very day on the massive day when they were killed. one day later a massive man hunt was under way for 26-year-old salah abdelslam, who lives in the brussels suburb. man who authorities believed driven a car carries one team of assay lents the night of the attacks and who had somehow managed to slip back across the border into belgium. one thought four months later a suspect as high profile of this would be nowhere near there. today in brussels they abrehended salah abdelslam, the tenth person suspected in the november 13th attacks and the only one still alive. he was shot in the leg during his encounter with police according to authorities and
this video the suspect is being dragged to a police vehicle. all told, three people arrested during today's raid. fourth person was killed. the other suspects presumed to have been aiding abdelslam in avading police. today's arrest were a product of a joint. it included dozens of raids and nearly weekly leads. lingering question, why did abdelslam go back to his home neighborhood? answer perhaps by the obvious, probably the only place he had a network of support. but with my back pain i couldn't sleep... so i couldn't get up in time. then i found aleve pm. aleve pm is the only one to combine a sleep aid plus the 12-hour strength of aleve... for pain relief that can last into the morning. and now... i'm back. aleve pm for a better am.
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stage craft and scripted theatrics. well, this summer in cleveland we may get the news-making convention we've all been longing for. if no republican candidate gets the 1237 delegates needed for the nomination, we may see an all-out battle on the convention floor for the first time in decades. the last time like that was in 1976; neither president gerald ford or the incumbent president nor ronald reagan whose insurgent campaign had amore ma jurorty of delegates headed into the republican convention in kansas city. >> four days from now the republican delegates will gather in this hall, but as of today, none of the counts of delegates made by news organizations give president ford enough delegates for a first ballot victory. he is close in all the counts, ahead of reagan in all the counts but he hasn't yet locked it up with. >> days leading up to the vote, there was an all-out battle being waged for delegates. >> vermont, 18 for ford.
virginia 13 for ford. >> james baker, the president's delegate hunter said his new delegate total shows the president has five more votes than are needed for a first ballot nomination. >> west virginia 20 for ford. 8 for reagan. >> gerald ford had the power of the presidency bind him at this point. the help of james baker was able to entice uncommitted delegates. play for the more conservative wing of the party ronald reagan tried to get ford to say who he would name his running mate. an effort that failed. >> this is where reagan hoped to pick up strength, not lose it. the debate ran nearly two hours. >> there has been too much secrecy, why shouldn't the delegates of this convention or any convention know beforehand
who the vice presidential candidate will be before they decide on the top of the ticket. >> the arguments for this last minute amendment smack of desperation and certainly political opportunityism. >> at the enter is of all this wheeling and dealing was the mississippi delegate which was pursued heavy by both candidates. >> the pressure to get the mississippi delegation to commit itself today upset the mississippi chairman clark reed who is a ford supporter but wanted to hold off a vote until tomorrow. >> why? what's the value of it? what kind of pressure is on you? >> just to try to -- >> at one point mississippi's delegates supporting reagan took over a cbs news trailer and were being observed by the teenage children of cbs news journalists. >> so for the last ten or 15 minutes they've been in there talking. now, we have a couple of operatives inside. phil moier's son, they don't
know that. and roger mud's son. matthew mud, young moier, what happened in there? >> they decided whether or not to break unit rules. >> what did they decide? >> they tried to take a vote of everyone that was in there and not everyone was there n there. 22 or 23 -- >> there's 21 people in there and they said they couldn't vote unless they had the entire delegates. >> i'm training ryan and david for cleveland in the in the end the mississippi delegates went to ford and he became the party's nominee. >> west virginia -- >> 20 votes for gerald ford. >> that did it. gerald ford was over the top and he saw it all in his hotel suite with some of the people who worked with him since new hampshire. he said it had been a long, hard struggle. he took the trip he has long promised up committed trip he would make, over to ronald
reagan's house. this picture buzz important to the president. the president hopes it will convince reagan supporters to work for him. >> joining me now is presidential historian douglas brinkley. charlie pierce, righter at large for esquire magazine. welcome to both of you. doug, let me start with you. it's remarkable -- there's so many things happening here that echo today. one of them is essentially the establishment verse the nonestablishment forces. in this case, in the person of the sitting incumbent president of the united states fighting by his -- by every hook and crook to get nomination of his own party. >> absolutely. great footage, by the way. look, i later interviewed gerald ford about it in his home in rancho mirage, he was livid. this is decades later at ronald reagan because he was the sitting president and as you recall, ford would become best friends with jimmy carter who beat him. ford didn't mind losing to carter in the sense that democrats versus republican.
but republican on republican, the fact that reagan sabotaged him when he was the sitting president, he never forgave reagan. reagan later tried to patch up by bringing him an indian peace pipe and said giving you a peace pipe. let's not have bad animosity, but they never could heal that rip because ford felt bruised by what reagan did. >> charlie, there's a few lessons here for cleveland. and here is the most important -- the winner of the nomination is not necessarily the winner of the party's future, which i think is an important thing to remember as we watch this fight play out. the person who gets the nomination doesn't necessarily emerge the victor in terms of trajectory of the republican party because clearly the republican party was reagan's party after this. it wasn't ford's. >> yeah. coalition for lack of a better word that solidified and won d presidency for ronald reagan in 1980 you can see forming at this convention. jessie helm was a very powerful
prominent broker at this convention. the attack on ford was from the right on foreign policy, on detente, helsinki accords and from the fall of saigon happened technically on his watch and helm's got a lot of foreign -- really hard line foreign policy into the platform. it was the first republican platform that advocating a human life amendment, which showed the way that party was swinging on social issues and reagan's strength was all in the south and the west and that's where the republican party moved. >> there's also the degree to which there's -- clinton had this line about how democrats fall in love, republicans fall in line and there's this will rogers i believe to an organized party of the democrat, but actually those roles have flipped in the modern time. the democratic party is more orderly party than the republican party, but you see here -- if you go back to '64, this kind of sense of permanent revolution and insurgency is actually central to the image of
modern conservatism. this isn't knew. >> absolutely. the last president to actually win a broken convention, got the brokered convention and won was fdr in '32 he beat al smith out offering john nans gardener the speaker of the house of texas, the vp thing. so gardener thought -- did a devil's deal with fdr thinking we could go over al smith and they did and gardener dutifully sat two terms with fdr and thought, well, then i'm set up for 1940 and fdr ran an unprecedented third term. democratic party discipline has been there since fdr. the republicans go willy nilly. the fact that the conservatism movement that only '72 with jimmy carter, '76 with carter, maybe a little bit with mcgovern in '72 while you had an insurgency. >> charlie, speaking of '64, nominated barely goldwater, that's also to me the best sort
of historical marker for what we might see in cleveland insofar as you have a takeover essentially the party by a certain wing of it and the other wing rejects it. here is nelson rockefeller on the floor in '64 basically ripping the face off the guy who is going to be the nominee. take a listen. >> there is no place in this republican party for those who would infiltrate its ranks, distort its aims and convert it into a cloak of apparent respectability for a dangerous extremism. >> you can hear him being booed and he doesn't name goldwater, everyone understood, charlie, what he was talking about. >> well, it was a wild convention. i have talked to people who -- i mean, if donald trump does, as he's flirted with his whole campaign, turns his crowd on the media, this is the precedent because i understand and certainly doug would know this better than i that david
brinkley told his son not to wear nbc credentials because the anti-press feeling in '64 was so wild and so generaled up by the goldwater people. this is a more closely run precedent, i think, than even '76 is. >> also happened in '64 with cbs, barely goldwater flew to germany to say he had foreign policy chops and walter cronkite went on cbs and said he went to a place where the nazis used to go b. it's one of the few times cbs had to d a massive apology to goldwater in '64. that's how much the press was scared of barely goldwater, the liberal cbs, nbc and they're frightened about the idea of goldwater, hence that famous commercial of the lyndon johnson work with the mushroom cloud. >> the goldwater precedent is useful to think of here in terms of what it meant for the party going forward, which is that
goldwaterism did define the next 50 years of the republican party absolutely and the huge historic defeat he had at the ballot box in november which is also a possibility who the heck knows if trump is nominated. douglas brinkley, charlie pierce, thank you, gentlemen. >> thanks. how donald trump could do what everyone thought was impossible, put the house of representatives in play for democrats. is that possible? we'll get to it ahead. my belly pain and constipation? i've heard it all. eat more fiber. flax seeds. yogurt. get moving. keep moving. i know! try laxatives. been there, done that. my chronic constipation keeps coming back. i know. tell me something i don't know. vo: linzess works differently from laxatives. linzess treats adults with ibs with constipation or chronic constipation. it can help relieve your belly pain, and lets you have more frequent and complete bowel movements that are easier to pass. do not give linzess to children under six and it should not be given to children six to seventeen.
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election forecasters gets way down in the weeds of all 435 house races the ones that almost no one else is paying close attention to yet. it just revised its projections for ten of the races with all of the changes favoring democrats. that's due to the possibility of either donald trump or ted cruz holding the top spot on the republican ticket. politico reports today that endangered house republicans facing tough re-election races are planning to adopt a simple strategy if trump is the nominee. disregard the presidential race and keep it local. it's a safe bet that democrats will do all they can to make those lawmakers answer for their party's standard barer. no one expected the house to be in play this year with republicans holding a huge, historic majority. but now there's an outside chance control could possibly be up for grabs if things break the right way. now in the senate, democrats were already positioned to do relatively well this fall. defending just 10 seats compared to 24 on the republican side.
"the new york times" reported back in february that majority leader mitch mcconnell has begun preparing threatened to harm them in the general re-election, they could run negative ads about trump. several of those senators up for re-election are from states won by barak obama in 2008 and 2012. mark cook from illinois are now breaking not just with the presidential candidates but with their own senate leadership. the plan to block the president's supreme court nomination. >> we should go through the process the constitution has already laid out. the president has already laid out a nominee who is from chicagoland, and for me, i'm open to see him, to talk to him. >> i believe you should, in fact, advise and consent on the nominee. and if you should vote it down, you vote it down. then it's back to the president. >> right. it's just man up and cast a vote. >> speak with someone who is in a state, not illinois but another state, where this could matter the most next.
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joining me now from madison, wisconsin, ruth. i want to talk to you because you're in wisconsin and you know wisconsin politics and wisconsin strikes me as the perfect sort of testing ground for this theory, right? it is a state that reliably goes to democrats in presidential elections but in off years has elektded scott walker, elected ron johnson who kicked out rhus finegold. how do you see this falling into shape with either trump or cruz
atop the ticket? >> well, it's a really interesting question, chris, because i don't think anybody really knows the answer to it. i mean, it is possible that the democrats are right that they're going to sweep down ballot races because people hate trump and that the republicans are right to be worried about that, but it's also possible that here in the industrial midwest there are a lot of populous of the type who support trump and the type who really if hillary clinton is the nominee are not going to be enthused about her. it's an interesting environment. it's very unstable. you know, in the ron johnson/russ finegold race, what's fascinating there, ron is a iran ak lite, he has these very right wing politics, tea party. he run against the washington establishment. russ finegold was a maverick and appealed to a lot of libertarians, parted ways with clinton administration on things like spying. he is really a guy who runs a
more populist campaign, very big on fair trade, for example. and so i think that's the question. this year, how is the democratic party going to kind of run against trump if trump is the nominee and how is that going to look? there are a lot of voters who are not reliable voters who will determine the outcome of that. >> part of what we've seen is the nationalization of elections. this is a trend. finegold lost in 2010 because that race was so a, nationalized by the republican party and, b, stherp able to motivate their base. the folks who showed up in 2008 to vote in obama and democratic majorities in both houses some percentage didn't show up in 2010. and russ finegold was the victim of that. if you get a mobilization and anti-trump mobilization on that scale, you can see benefits from democrats down ticket. >> yes, that's true. but then you also have to have people motivated to come out and vote. >> you sound worried about that in wisconsin.
>> well, that's what walker did. he motivated the hard right people to come out and vote, really the anti-choice people in droves. as you pointed out, we're a blue state usually in a presidential year, but it just depends on who is really motivated to come out. and i think, you know what you've seen -- when trump says i can take states like michigan that have never been republican, he is saying something that's significant. there's an economic populist message that's really resonating this year. and on the left, bernie sanders has been the candidate with that message and has churned up a ton of enthusiasm, won michigan in a surprise way, was stalled after that across the midwest, so is not looking as likely to be able to make it all the way to the nomination, but where does that really leave things? >> but here is my question -- >> you have to understand that that's an important factor this year. >> i think it is. i was just reading a piece hillary clinton has more votes than anyone. that in some ways so much focus has been on trump and bernie sanders i think for obvious reasons for trump particularly,
but, you know, there's a sizable -- there are a lot of votes that she has gotten. she has gotten more votes than any other candidate. and the obama coalition is an intact thing that one can imagine being preserved in the fall if the right things fall into place. >> if a voter id doesn't suppress voter turnout, who can't cast a vote, that's huge. voter suppressant is huge. >> good point. >> enthusiasm from people who don't always vote. >> right. >> i don't know that the obama enthusiasm is transferable to hillary and the sieg enthusiasm is transferable to hillary. what i do know it's an economic populist year and trump has this message as you pointed out so well is an old right wing message as well that combines attacking the wrong people, attacking immigrants and people of color with this economic populist message that's really appealing. some white working class voters dismissed the racist part and others of them resonate to them. i think we would be foolish to say he is never going to win.
that's a mistake the republicans made all along. >> i totally agree. people should not underestimate to the degree he will be a motivator for large segments of a coalition that may not be enthused otherwise. ruth, thank you very much. >> yeah. that's all for this evening. good evening, rachel. have a great weekend. >> thanks. you, too. happy friday, lots going on. very busy night tonight in presidential politics. still at this hour, at this hour senator ted cruz is in arizona getting ready to hold what his campaign is calling an american rally in phoenix, arizona this hour. what makes tonight's ted cruz rally more american than his other rallies is unclear, but he will be joined on stage tonight by other people who are also americans, including talk show host glen beck and former texas governor rick perry and carly fiorina.