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tv   The Place for Politics 2016  MSNBC  April 12, 2016 1:00pm-2:01pm PDT

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technology moves faster than ever. the all-new audi a4, with apple carplay integration. good afternoon to you. i'm steve kornacki live in new york. any second now, we're expecting donald trump to start a rally in upstate new york, in rome, new york, keeping an eye on that, we will bring it to you when he starts speaking. in the meantime, we just heard from house speaker paul ryan. once again, flatly refusing any potential convention floor coup that would make him in republican nominee for
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president. >> we have too much work to do in the house to allow this speculation to swirl or to have my motivations questioned. so let me be clear. i do not want, nor will i accept the nomination for our party. >> that was paul ryan, again, just a few minutes ago, trying his best to keep his name out of the mix, in a republican race that has reached a critical juncture. a week from today, one week from today, new yorkers will be votes in key primaries in both races. new numbers to tell you about on that front. our new nbc news/"wall street journal"/marist toll shows good news for donald trump in his home state. he's sitting at 54%. remember, if he can earn more than 50% in every congressional district in this state, then he would sweep all 95 delegates up for grabs in new york. that would help him open up a big lead in the republican delegate hunt. meanwhile, on the democratic
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side, there is good news for hillary clinton. she has a 14-point lead on bernie sanders. there have been eight polls in the last two weeks here in new york on the democratic side. she has led every single one of them by double digits. for more on both sides of the empire state primary, i'm joined here on set by former congressman from new york, nick lazio. he ran against hillary clinton for the new york senate back in 2000 and ran against one of donald trump's top supporters in this state, carl paladino, for governor in 2010. rick, thanks for joining us. let me start on the big news. there's been all this talk, mib donald trump finishes up short of the big number, maybe republicans turn to another name at the convention, paul ryan's name always comes up. we just heard him saying in as absolute terms as he could, he doesn't want that. what's your reaction to that statement? >> it's important news. paul ryan was the alternative candidate in a contested convention setting. i think many people believe, and i'm one of them, if donald trump
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does not go to the convention with a majority of delegates in hand, that it's more than likely that he will not be the nominee of the republican party. i know the trump supporters are not going to like to hear that, but those are the rules and, in fact, that's great news for cruz, because cruz will now focus on continuing to -- >> yes, two questions on that. if that's the case. if it's not trump. if ryan is out of the mix. if this is the scenario, you get to a second blot or something, does it now have to be cruz? >> it doesn't have to be cruz, no. this is the way i look at it. number one, i'm not sure that paul ryan -- i think you have to take him at face value. i do. he's an honest guy. i believe he does not want to be a candidate. it complicates his role as convention chairman and speaker of the house. i think he really does not want to do it. in a setting where you have almost a crisis and a decision that's got to be made, i'm not sure that they couldn't revisit that issue. but let's take it for granted that ryan is going to be out of it. if that's going to be the case,
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you have three candidates that are currently in it. it depends how john kasich does from here on in. if he goes to the convention, having won only one state, i think it's a hard sell. i think it's easier, in a way, for somebody who's not been contesting these primaries, listen, if i was in it, i would have won, i would have done this, i would have done that. it's going to be an easier sale for somebody. but i'm not making the challenges of somebody coming out of effectively left field to be the nominee. >> what about the blowback potential. if you get to the end of the primaries. and your home state right here looks like donald trump will do pretty well next week. looks like a trump state right now. if trump gets to the end of this process and he has the most votes, the most delegates, the most states won. but he's short of that magic number, 40 to 50 short of it, whatever it is. technically, mechanically, i get it, republicans could give the nomination to somebody else, but if they do, don't they have a revolt on their hands? >> i think it's going to be an unpleasant situation for many trump supporters. if he can win, based on the
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rules, fair and square, he'll be the nominee. if he can't, based on the rules that existed before he got in the race, he won't be the nominee. it's pretty straightforward. so he's going to have -- i think you would have to look at it right now and say he's the favorite given his head start. and keep in mind, steve, for anybody else that comes out as the potential nominee during the convention, they'll start off with no money and no organization. and an rnc, a republican national committee, is in a less favorable condition than it was when mitt romney was running and supporting the rnc. the one thing they had going for them is the convention was earlier and there is some time to regroup. >> what about the lay of the land here in new york? we put the poll up, donald trump. if he can get 50% everywhere in the state, he sweeps this thing. you're a great person to talk to on this. in 2010, you ran for governor here and you ran into this primary opponent.
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carl paladino, and he really is sort of like the donald trump of new york politics. it's the same very outspoken, very provocative, says things politicians aren't supposed to say. and he caught sort of fire with the grassroots here. it feels like -- >> for two weekends. >> in the right two weeks. and then he lost by 30 points. >> so explain -- you sort of came head to head with the trump phenomenon six years ago. tell us what that's like. what that is. >> it's not fun. because you're trying to reason with people who are angry and trying to send a message and it's very emotive. so you can't cut through that emotion. when i was running, and i was the official designee of the republican party and the conservative party in new york, we have an official conservative party and i end up winning that primary, but it's still a primary. and that primary, those voters were coming out, many of them were from upstate new york. they had almost a frontier mentality. they felt like they had been left behind and ignored by down state politicians, time after
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time. and they were looking for somebody who would express their frustration and anger. a plan didn't seem to matter to those people. they just wanted to see somebody who understood and appreciated their exasperation. and so, they were attracted to, you know, outrageous, controversial, irresponsible comments, in my view, that ultimately undid that candidate during the general election. >> but it sounds familiar. is that same thing going on right now in the republican party? >> it's precisely the same strain that those candidates were trying to tap into. it's disaffected voter who's feeling like they're being left behind in the economy. they don't understand america's role in the world anymore. they feel like there's less of a sense of community. the social structures and institutions are frayed. they think that things are untethered. and they're looking for an answer. and along comes somebody who plays to that, and says, i'm going to fix all that. i will do that with one sweep of the pendant. and in the case in new york,
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that candidate who was running against me was talking about shutting down the borders to new york. of course the government of new york has no authority over immigration. but, in fact, that was a comment that was made and it played to an audience. and you know, that happens. but, by the way, hillary clinton, in -- you know, in 2000 said, i want to create 200,000 jobs as a legislator, in upstate new york. these comments are just, you know, i think they're cynical comments, because you can't follow through on them. >> and final question, you mentioned hillary clinton. you've had the experience of running against hillary clinton, as well. what do you think -- watching the republican race unfold, she looks in pretty good position on the democratic side. what do you think she's thinking, watching this republican race unfold? >> i think she's probably looking at this -- first of all, i think she's completely focused on getting the nomination right now. i'm sure she didn't expect to be as much as a 14-point lead is a healthy lead, i'm sure she wasn't expecting to have a contested primary at all in new york, in a state she had run and won twice and lived and been the first lady and been, if you were aware at all over the last 30
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years of what was going on in america, you were aware that hillary clinton was the first lady and secretary of state and a two-term senator from new york state. and yet she still has got to really work it. and bernie sanders here in her home state is still having crowds of 15,000 to 18,000 people. i think she's still very focused on securing the nomination and nailing that down. i think these are two different candidates. if it's cruz or trump or kasich or somebody like that, her best scenario, i would say, is probably trump if you look at the numbers right now. and i think she's probably thinking right now i've got to focus on the job i've got to get done, which is to make sure i finish the job of getting the nomination, have the money raised, get the organization in place, and heal the party so i can take it to the other side. >> rick lazio, former congressman from new york, thanks for the time. appreciate it. let's turn now to nbc's kasie hunt. she's covering bernie sanders's campaign from syracuse, new york. so we're talking about hillary clinton. she, obviously.
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the leader nationally in this race getting some good polling news out of new york. at the same time, bernie sanders comes into the state with a winning streak, with some real grassroots enthusiasm. what are you hearing from the sanders' campaign right now? >> reporter: hey, steve. it's pretty clear things here are getting a little bit more personal. i think that that's clear from both sides of this race. it's certainly clear from these stump speeches that senator sanders has been giving here in new york, to pretty large crowds. thousands of people across the upstate in a series of rallies, buffalo last night, he was in syracuse this afternoon. he's on his way to poughkeepsie to marist college, which we expect is going to be a pretty big rally, as well. but he's adding to his stump speech these sort of more personal versions of the attacks on hillary clinton, that he's been leveling over the course of the past couple of months. take a listen to what he had to say today about super pacs.
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>> during the last filing period, her largest super pac reported raising $25 million from special interests, including $15 million from wall street. does anybody seriously believe that you can be an agent of change if you are taking money from the most powerful special interests in this country? >> reporter: pretty direct hit on hillary clinton in this idea that she could change things up from bernie sanders. his campaign going even further, putting out this statement this afternoon that's headlined, clinton's credibility gap. it says, clinton's credibility was questioned after she blamed vermont for gun violence in new york. the charge backfired. i'm continuing on here. on a host of other issues, sanders detailed differences with clinton during a rally here at monroe community college. and it goes on to underscore what we just heard sanders say there about super pacs and other
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issues. and this is really, in some ways, it's a version of that attack that he leveled, calling clinton unqualified. he, of course, backed away from that specific word. but it's clear that his campaign feels like they need to make sure that they're hitting back hard at clinton, in the context of this new york primary. sanders, himself, was focused on some of these reports that said clinton's campaign was going to work to essentially disqualify him in this primary. and he wants to make sure that that doesn't happen. but it's clear, clinton's campaign is taking this pretty seriously, too. her personal aid, nick merrill, tweeting a series of things about the sanders' campaign and their new sort of tone or the evolution in their tone here in new york. nick merrill saying, let's be very clear, this is a character attack. this is exactly what bernie sanders pledged to his supporters, that he wouldn't do, steve. >> all right, kasie hunt with
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the sanders campaign in syracuse. meanwhile, while clinton could be leading the delegate count, she could face a problem from within her own party if she gets the nomination. a new nbc poll shows that nearly a third of sanders supporters in new york state say they wouldn't support clinton in a general election. and msnbc's joy reid is just north of where i'm sitting right now. she's in the bronx in new york city. she's been talking to voters. so joy, in democratic territory there. we have this new poll, on the one hand, that could be a big problem for hillary clinton if she's the nominee. on the other hand, i keep thinking back to 2008. we were probably seeing same numbers about clinton supporters back then, saying they weren't going to vote for obama in the fall. so we have seen this before, maybe. >> yeah, of course, you do, we all remember the pumas back in 2008, people who were die-hard hillary supporters who said they would not support barack obama if he were the nominee. and the numbers were pretty similar of those who said that at the time. i think the one warning sign for hillary clinton is the number of
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sanders supporters who say they wouldn't support her is almost the double the number that go the other way around. of clinton supporters who say they won't support bernie sanders. we spoke to voters out here in the bronx, the most democratic county in new york, at about 78% democratic registration. and here are a couple of voters' takes on whether they would support the other candidate if their choice is not the nominee. take a listen. >> bernie has to be -- i mean, hillary has some valid points, i just don't like the way she's carrying herself in this. >> reporter: you're a hillary clinton supporter, but if bernie sanders is the nominee, would you vote for bernie sanders as well? >> not really. >> reporter: no? why? >> i feel like he doesn't really have a purpose in his candidacy. like, i don't feel like he has enough to become a president. >> reporter: and steve, that's actually sort of the reverse of what you typically see. most of the clinton supporters that we've spoken to today said they would be just fining with voting for bernie sanders, and even the sanders supporters that
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we spoke to, for the most part, said they would be fine with hillary clinton, they would just prefer the candidate they like. when you talk to the hillary clinton campaign in particular, they're not sounding too alarmed. the one thing they do have to watch out for is that age range of the die-hard sanders supporters who don't like her. they are those younger voters that they're hoping they can turn out the way they came out for barack obama in 2008. steve? >> absolutely. that's something we've been seeing in these exit polls throughout the primary season. joy reid in the bronx, thank you for that. and still ahead, the fallout over a contested convention, a potential contested convention on the republican side. paul ryan does his best to dismiss any suggestion in a contested convention could turn to him. as a republican savior and a ballot did put the issue to rest. plus, how about this? this one and the only television legend, larry king. he is going to be with us live on this set in just a few minutes. you are not going to want to miss that. but first, donald trump speaking live in rome, new york, getting ready to speak live in rome, new
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welcome back. as we wait for donald trump to begin his rally in rome, new york, that's in upstate new york, trump was scheduled to come out at 4:00, running a few minutes late. we'll try to dip into that for you, when the time comes. meanwhile, nbc's jacob rascon is there now at the rally live. so, jacob, interesting, donald trump had that big loss a week ago in wisconsin. a lot of talk since then of the trouble he's had with organizing, the trouble he's had in colorado, for instance. the prospect of an open
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convention. and trump, overall, he's going to be speaking here in a minute, but a little quieter over the last week, it seems. >> reporter: right, he had several days off. in fact, we know that he was supposed to go to california and colorado, he ended up canceling those. he tweeted that he had to catch up with some business dealings, and then he ended up going out to the 9/11 museum last saturday. and this is all on the heels of a reset in his campaign. where instead of the unconventional, the famously tight and small campaign that's only really comprised of several people expanding, finally, to somebody with a lot of experience, paul manafort. so since then, really, what we've noticed, the only thing i could tell that was really different as he gives speeches in the last days, where he has more details and more specifics about the area where he is speaking. for example, on long island and in albany, he had very specific details about how manufacturing jobs he said they've lost. and he had more than usual. and then we're noticing, as
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well, that the venue choices are changing and different. and they're almost exclusively now for the past week or so, in areas where protesters can't get to them. that's a minor detail, maybe. but that's big for the campaign, because it became the story for a week and a half or so, that so many protesters were coming in, into the rally, and outside the rally. well, now we have mostly venues where you, first of all, they screen the line heavily and they have a lot more security inside, so they don't have as many disruptions inside. but then, also, the venues themselves are in the middle of in where, where the supporters have to be bused in or it's just simply more difficult to get to. but, still, as you can tell, he still fills it up. there are thousands and thousands of people at these rallies in new york. almost more than we've ever seen, steve? >> all right. jacob rascon in rome, new york. yes, we haven't seen a real competitive new york republican primary in a long time. keeping an eye out there. we'll see when donald trump shows up. jacob, thanks for that. and up next, the only way to make sense of this year's wild
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you might be classified as an eastern republican, fair? >> i guess you could say that, yes. >> which means kind of a rockefeller republican? >> i never thought of it in those terms. >> how do you define it? are you a bush republican? >> i think i'm -- really the people i do best with are the people that drive the taxis. wealthy people don't like me because i'm competing against them all the time and they don't like me and i like to win. i go down the streets of new york and the people that really like me are the taxi drivers and the workers and et cetera, et cetera. >> then why are you a republican? >> i have no idea. >> 1988, that was. the summer of 1988, the republican national convention. that was larry king interviewing donald trump. and joining me now is the host of ora tv's "larry king now" and
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"politicking," larry king. native new yorker, welcome home. >> i was young there. >> and i think people look at donald trump, he looks different, but he sounds the same. >> sounds the same, hair looked nicer then. but donald looked very young too. >> so that was him at the -- that was the '88 convention. they nominated george bush sr. for president. a couple things when i look back at that jump out at me. first of all, you're asking him, what kind of a republican are you? and it sounds like he didn't really fit in with the party back then and he doesn't fit in today. >> i think that was an honest answer he gave them. is he an east coast republican? as i know him, and i know him forever, i think of him as an east coast republican. i though when i asked the question, he's a rockefeller kind of republican, which is kind of socially liberal and economically conservative and probably be gung ho on the military. but donald is a -- he's donald. and this is -- he's the story. he is the number one story in
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this campaign. bernie sanders is the number two story. two outcasts, two guys coming from left and right field, coming at you. the betting is trump might be favored to get the nomination, bernie probably won't. but they will go down as forces forever. they were major forces. >> do you recognize? i mean, you have interviewed trump so many times, you've seen him through the years. this guy running for president right now with the comments about immigration, the comments about banning muslims. also, you know, very conservative on social issues now. do you recognize this guy? >> partially -- you know, i know him personally. so i spoke to him a couple of weeks ago. >> how did he sound? >> he said, we're on an unbelievable ride. and he is. i think he's riding a crest. it's almost like he's caught a wave. and the wave is expanding. and it's off hawaii and still going toward maui. and he said he's going to make a right turn and he can't get off
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the wave. so he's on this conservative jag, which is more conservative, right wing. and he's leading in the polls and he keeps leading. he's got a new campaign manager now, he's leveling off things a little. he's probably going to play it a little safer. but you never know with donald, when he gets up. like, he's going to talk in rome, right? no one knows what he's going to say. >> how is he as a tv guest? because he is -- the character of donald trump is a creation of the media. when he was on your show, what was it like to have him on your show? >> it always was a pleasure. because, one, he always got good ratings. people liked seeing donald trump. it was extraordinary in his manner and he always had opinions and he was gregarious and he came in and he always said, how we doing? how were my ratings last week? how we doing? but i enjoy his company. when i had some surgery in new york years ago, he took me out to dinner the night before. he took my wife out to dinner when we were here in new york and he's always been -- i regard
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him as a good friend. i stay politically in the middle and i stay removed. i don't announce who i'm going to vote for. i've known hillary clinton as long as i've known donald. i know bernie sanders. i don't know cruz. i know john kasich, when he was in congress. i had him on forever. but i've never seen a race like this. i mean, i made -- i started perot. so i know what that was like. >> yeah, perot, 1992. comes on your show and says, look, the volunteers put me on the ballot. i'm running. and this was the first campaign in the modern era. his campaign was a television campaign. >> it was. >> and that's what trump is, too. there's no field organization, no ads. it's a television campaign. >> correct. and how do you explain it? i can't explain it. it is what it is -- it's modern media. except it's modern media exploding. it's almost, it's almost cartoonish in a sense. it's like -- and it all happened so quickly, i saw donald at craig's restaurant in los angeles before all of this
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started. and i sat down with him and i said, i think i'm going to run. and i said, you know, i've had you on in the past, six different times. in which you said you're going to run and you never ran. he said, i think i'm going to really run. i said, you really -- and he says, i think i'm going to do it. and then i went back to the people i was sitting with and i said, he says he's going to run, and they go, nah, he's not going to run, he's going to say he's going to run. and then he almost got caught up in the swell, like, okay, i'm in the ring, see how it goes. and now i think he wants the job. >> so you think he didn't even expect in at the beginning that it was going to take off like this? >> no. how could he have expected it? he would have to be shocked, especially with 18 guys running. you've got jeb bush, that famous name. and you've got people in the senate and everything -- everyone -- everyone disappointed. >> you say you talked to him a couple of weeks ago. did he sound confident? >> he's always confident. >> did he sound like there might be any signs of fatigue, being
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tired? >> none of that. i think he revels in this. i think donald revs up and revels in it. he's enjoying every minute. i think bernie sanders is enjoying every minute. i'm sure he's shocked. i mean, i know bernie a long time. >> people marvel at both of their energy. sanders being 75 years old right now. donald trump sleeps, it seems like, two to three hours a night. there you go, get them on at 6:30 in the morning or 10:00 at night, and there is energy there. >> remember the movie, "butch cassidy and the sun dance kid"? >> sure. >> every morning they're on a trail getting up and every day the posse is following them. and they're going, who are those guys? i would bet that hillary and cruz and kasich are all saying, what are we going to do today? who are they? who are they? it's an unbelievable year. it's fun watching it. >> the most dangerous force in politics is an unpredictable force, i guess. >> yes. >> quick final question. trump, when you have him on the
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show, the minute the camera goes off, is it a different guy or is it the same guy? >> same guy. >> exact same? >> oh, yeah. how did i do? was i good? i know i was good. tell me, tell me i was good. his wife's great, too. she's a great lady. and he has great kids. there's a lot to be said for donald trump. yeah, there's a lot -- you know, he's a good guy. he is really a good guy. he's not a racist. he's not. he plays to that crowd. >> but he doesn't talk that way? >> no, no. >> interesting. >> not at all. >> interesting. he's a showman, too. you can tell that. >> larry king, television legend. this was an honor. >> legend! >> thank you very much! >> thank you. that was great fun. up next, a divided republican party headed towards a potential contested convention. john kasich warning his party about their future. >> two paths. one choice, the path that exploits anger, encourages resentment, turns fear into
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hatred, and divides people. this path solves nothing. it demeans our history, it weakens our country, and it cheapens each one of us. it has but one beneficiary, and that is to the politician who speaks of it. e*trade is all about seizing opportunity. and i'd like to... cut. so i'm gonna take this opportunity to direct. thank you, we'll call you. evening, film noir, smoke, atmosphere... bob...
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numbers, kasich is running a very distant second here in new york. you see the latest numbers up on the screen. in fact, he is in danger right now, even if he comes in second, the way those numbers break, he's in danger of not getting a single one of new york's 95 delegates. he's probably going to have to bump that number up and bump trump's down a little bit if he's going to break into the delegate column. this according to our latest nbc news poll. but, kasich, that is not stopping him from pushing forward in the race here in new york. joining me now is nbc's kelly o'donnell. she is following the kasich campaign for us. she joins us in the newsroom. so kelly, thanks for taking a few minutes. so kasich makes a pretty dramatic speech today. and it seems like this is sort of a critical moment for his campaign. he won ohio, his home state. he has been pointing to the northeast, saying this is friendlier turf for me. he's got to put -- if not some wins here, he's got to show traction around the northeast. >> and he doesn't talk about
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wins. he talks about accumulating delegates. so the numbers he's just outlined, that's worrisome for his campaign. but part of the reason for that big speech is the attention it would get today, the way that it puts all of his ideas in a coherent, one-speech form. and he's hoping that the give and take that happens on the campaign trail with town hall meetings, which has more energy and more life and more sort of, the unexpected, which can be great on campaigns, today he wanted to really outline the differences. and to encourage republicans who might be afraid to use their vote for the guy running third, which often happens. voters don't want to throw away their vote. trying to give them reasons to look at him, consider him, and take a look toward november. who can win against a presumed hillary clinton? that's a big part of what he says to voters and he makes the argument that a trump or a cruz is not going to fare well if she's the nominee for democrats. >> and it's also interesting to watch how this all plays out here. you have the stop-trump movement. we just don't want donald trump
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to be the nominee. but a week ago, we were looking at them getting behind ted cruz in wisconsin, delivering a big win there. now we're starting to see polls here, elsewhere in the northeast. it's kasich who's running stronger here than ted cruz. it seems like that stop-trump movement is still, it's almost like a whack-a-mole strategy here and donald trump is sort of the constant. he's running in the lead and it's a question of who's running second. >> and he can use the resistance to sort of excite and really animate his voters and his supporters. that's for sure. and we have to talk about the ted cruz new york values comments. when i've been out on the trail in neighborhoods and delis, at meeting halls, new yorkers and people in the northeast, many took note of that. and did not like what was said for an iowa audience, they remember it. and so john kasich and certainly donald trump are trying to capitalize on that, to diminish whatever momentum ted cruz might have had from the never-trump, stop-trump kind of movement. and we'll have to see if that bears out. but whether it's in the trump style or the quieter, more
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cerebral kasich style, you can make a pitch to say new york values mean a lot of things that americans the would be proud of, not the kind of thing that probably cruz was suggesting to christian conservatives that he was seeking back in iowa. >> it's interesting. iowa seems like such a long time ago. but if you had told cruz that night, by the way, this thing will still be a i live in april and you're going to need new york, he may have come up with a better term. >> it's hard to not be very short-sighted. they're all trying to cobble together any kind of path. and momentum is so powerful. if you come out of one state with some credibility or momentum, it could really change things later. that's part of why kasich is here working new york from the city up to the, certainly the upstate, different communities, especially republican communities, wanting to get people to give him that consideration. even if trump is the commanding leader here, he's playing for second in a race where second might get a prize. >> all right. kelly o'donnell, on the kasich beat, thank you for that. appreciate it. and earlier today, in fact,
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within the last hour, paul ryan, the republican speaker of the house, tried his best to tamp down and to quiet down for good all of that chatter about him being a white night for the republican party at its convention this summer. he says he is not plotting to emerge as the republican party's nominee for president. and he has no interest in being the republican nominee for president. nbc's luke russert is outside rnc headquarters with more now. luke, i heard, i believe this was you who had the first question after he made his statement, and you looked at paul ryan and you said, well, you told us you had no interest in being speaker last year. that didn't -- you ended up being speaker, so why should we believe you now? >> yeah, we remember last year, steve. there was this whole ordeal where paul ryan said, i do not want the job, i don't want to put that job upon my family, i would much rather my colleague, kevin mccarthy, take the job and he pulled out and ryan kind of got catholic guilted into it by
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john boehner. but i said, you issued all these denials before, so why should the public believe you this time around. take a listen to what he told me? >> apples and oranges. being speaker of the house is a far cry from being president of the united states, specifically because i was already in the house. i'm already a congressman. that is entirely different than getting the nomination for president of the united states by your party without even running for the job. so completely non sequitur comparison in my book. >> and steve, when paul ryan said is that somebody who has actually run for president this year, who has put themselves through the ringer, raised the money, gone to the states, that should be the eventual nominee. whether it be a trump or a cruz or somebody else that has already done that. what i found very interesting about today was that ryan sort of launched this parallel campaign. and that is something he's talked about with reporters over the last few months. he's critiqued donald trump about various things. today, he talked about upward mobility, poverty, restructuring the tax code, so it's more favorable to middle class
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workers. these are ideas where ryan's a lot more comfortable in the things that cruz or trump talks about. he's going to try to push these ideas. all the while, you have this presidential campaign unfolding. the reason why, from folks i spoke to close to him, these ideas pushed forward by the other candidates might not be the best for the republican party. we believe that the ideas that ryan talks about make the party more inclusive, larger, a better brand, a better sell. so that's really what he's going to try to do. how much success he has with all of this, especially when he has to call the balls and strikes at the convention in cleveland will be fascinating to see. because he's going to take a lot of heat from the anti-establish crowd, that has already lined up against him. i think you brought up a great point last hour, steve. even had he not taken his name out of the hat, the delegates who were there on behalf of cruz or trump, they really don't like paul ryan. he's not their kind of republican right now. >> all right. luke russert, reminding us that paul ryan was catholic guilted
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into being speaker of the house. i know something about how that goes. luke, thanks for the report. appreciate it. for some more analysis, let's welcome in rick tyler, msnbc political analyst. also, former senior communications adviser for the ted cruz campaign. rick, thanks for joining us. let's start on the news of the hour. paul ryan saying, look, if you want another candidate to emerge at this republican convention this summer, don't look to me. don't look to anybody who hasn't run for president. what's your reaction to what paul ryan said today? >> well, look, it's got to be good news for cruz, kasich, for donor reasons, because paul ryan would have been locking up some of the donors who wanted to wait and see what would happen. now he's taken himself out of the race. and so, those donors have got to make a choice that doesn't include paul ryan. i think in a sense, paul ryan who would the only third-party option. but i don't think that the delegates in this convention -- because historically we know who the presumptive nominee was, and the delegates didn't really matter. they were going to all vote for the presumptive nominee. but now, every delegate counts. and these delegates are, you
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know, by and large, loyal to the candidates that they've come to represent. >> well, take a look at this, too. this scenario that the paul ryan scenario, basically, it would require trump to get through the primary season and not have that majority. he doesn't hit that magic number of 1,237. and then it opens the door to who knows what at the convention. but we asked in our new nbc/marist poll here in new york, we asked republican voters, hey, if donald trump gets to the end of this process, doesn't have the majority, but does have the most delegates and the most votes, should the republican convention nominate him anyway? 64% of republicans here in new york said, yes, because he wins the most delegates, he should be the nominee. now, granted, new york, a good state for trump, but we asked this same question in wisconsin a week ago, where trump lost. and still a majority of republicans there said the same thing. it seems to me, if you're ted cruz, this is no small matter. this perception that if donald trump comes through the primaries, doesn't have a majority, but has the most delegates, it could look undemocratic to not nominate him. >> well, look, in 2000, george
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w. bush lost the popular vote to al gore, because of something in the electoral college, and that was explained to the american people, and a lot of people didn't like it and there was a big debate over it. but the fact is, the republican party has basically been nominating their candidates the same way since 1856. and that is, you have to have the majority of the delegates. now, that will take some explaining to do. the rnc is having a bit of a hard time, i think, explaining it, because there's a lot of suspicion of the rnc, because they're seen as the establishment, and they probably need some sort of a third arbitrator, like a republican historian to come in and kind of explain. because again, steve, as you know, none of this really matters. none of these rules -- all of these rules will be stress tested, because i believe we will go to an open convention and i believe donald trump will not get the requisite number of delegates nor will anybody else. and then we'll be relying heavily on these rules, which have not been stress tested. and we'll have to see what happens. but right now, i would give the advantage to cruz. >> well, here's one of the
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challenges i see for cruz going forward. we showed that poll from new york, where now kasich has bumped ahead of cruz for second place here. and you look around the northeast, a bunch of northeast states. maryland and pennsylvania, now there's voting on april 26th. here's the risk, i see. tell me if i'm wrong. cruz loses not just to trump, but to kasich in these contests the rest of this month. cruz finishes third. and what that does is it makes kasich more viable in may. in the state like indiana, a state where cruz really has a shot to knock off donald trump, but kasich, by beating cruz in these northeast states, becomes more viable, is stronger in indiana, and prevents cruz from knocking off trump there. am i wrong to think that's a threat to ted cruz? >> i think that's a reasonable and rational explanation. but what i do think, and i do think that this will be a rough couple of election nights for cruz. because it will be in the northeast, where the polling shows that he's not done well. he tends to overperform in polling.
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but cruz should be rock solid in a state like indiana that's elected mike pence, a very conservative governor there. and then we head out to the west coast, and look at what cruz's schedule is now. while everybody else today is in new york, he's been in california. he'll be going to wyoming. he'll come back to new york. he'll come in pennsylvania. he really is looking down the road, and he's going to be trying to change the narrative, particularly when you get to december 7th. and that's where this is all headed. and there's a lot of resources and kasich right now doesn't have the resources. cruz is husbanding their resources, the anti-trump movement is also husbanding their resources. notice, they haven't spent really any money in new york city, because new york is such an expensive media market. but media markets are more of a bargain in indiana, washington, oregon, and there's lots of media markets, except for the two expensive ones in san francisco, l.a., and california. >> rick tyler, msnbc analyst and formerly with the cruz campaign, thanks for the time.
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>> thanks, steve, appreciate it. all right. up next, are new york values different when you travel to the new york 'burbs. cal perry has a report from long island. that's next. ya know, viagra helps guys with erectile dysfunction get and keep an erection. talk to your doctor about viagra. ask your doctor if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take viagra if you take nitrates for chest pain or adempas® for pulmonary hypertension. your blood pressure could drop to an unsafe level. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. stop taking viagra and call your doctor right away if you
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as we were just talking about, it's the key finding in our latest poll, a majority of likely republican voters here in new york say that donald trump should be the republican party's candidate for president if he has the most delegates after the primary season, even if he doesn't hit the magic number of
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1,237. this, again, was our nbc news marist/"wall street journal" poll. it also shows trump leading big in this state ahead of next tuesday's primary. and donald trump traveling the state of new york right now, rallying for support ahead of that contest. thursday, he's going to be heading out to suffolk county. that's on long island. he'll be attending a republican fund-raiser right there. and ahead of that event, that is where we find msnbc's cal perry. he spoke with the republican party chairman out there in suffolk county. he joins us now from long island. cal, it's interesting, donald trump, he had the big loss in wisconsin, all the questions that raised about his viability, the very first place he went after that loss, where you are right now, long island, he feels there's a home field advantage there. what are you hearing? >> reporter: i'm hearing exactly that. he has a major home field advantage. i have the to say, he's been the talk of our story for the last two days. yesterday in queens, a very democratic area. people talking about donald trump. we came out here today and found
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a number of republicans, all of them talking about donald trump. when we asked the chairman of the republican party here, as you said, for suffolk county why donald trump is having that name recognition, why so many people are backing him and he's getting so much support, he said it's a simple matter of he's an outsider candidate. take a listen. >> he has come along, he has a very straight message. you know, he's kind of telling it like it is, which is not what politicians normally do. the reality is, is, you know, america's hurting. domestically and internationally. and they're looking for a true leader. and there's been a lack of leadership for the last eight years. our reputation internationally has certainly waned. and domestically, americans struggling. and donald trump's message is, hey, let's make our country great again first. and then we can be the world leader that we always were. >> reporter: you mentioned wisconsin, and sort of donald trump able to bounce back after that loss. a lot of people here are asking,
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will ted cruz be able to bounce back after potentially a poor showing here in new york? if you, steve, are using the word landslide and trump and victory all in the same sentence again on tuesday night, how does ted cruz recover from that? donald trump also doubling down here in new york, having a number of fund-raisers, some of them a bit controversial, because of the locations. this in particular, the one he's having here on thursday night, there was a hate crime in 2008. a lot of people have come out and said it's not the right place for a rally. but he's charging $1,500 a plate. he's taking a lot of money down. we saw hillary clinton do the same thing last night here in long island, as well. it's sort of become a traditional campaign stop when you need that influx of cash. and for donald trump, with the support he's enjoying out here on long island, it seems like a no-brainer. that question of momentum, something donald trump has managed to maintain, i think it speaks to his almost brilliance when it comes to owning a news cycle. that seems to be holding the true. he seems to have been able to shrug off that loss, steve.
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>> that's a key point, cal. i think all of that talk that the race changed with wisconsin, if trump puts up a 30-point win in new york, i know it's his home state. but still, that's a big one. and especially if cruz were to win to kasich, come in third in new york, that whole idea of game-changing momentum would probably be revisited. cal perry on long island, thanks for that. appreciate it, a good report. now here is hampton pearson, he has the cnbc market wrap. >> hi, steve. yeah, optimism about a possible deal between saudi arabia and russia to cut oil production drove markets higher today. the closing numbers, the dow gaining 164 points. the nasdaq up by 19. the s&p adding 38 points. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. ew car. nobody's hurt, but there will still be pain. it comes when your insurance company says they'll only pay three quarters of what itakes to replace it. what are you supposed to do? drive three quarters of a car? now if you had liberty mutual new car replacement, you'd get your whole car back. i guess they don't want you driving around on three wheels.
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just enough time left to say that does it for this hour. i'm steve kornacki. "mtp daily" starts right now. if it's tuesday, the speaker has spoken, again. but is it the final word? and if he's not the one left standing at the convention meltdown, then who would the white knight be? this is "mtp daily" and it starts right now. boy, the world of politics and presidential campaigns gets weirder and weirder. good evening. i'm chuck todd here in washington. and welcome to a tuesday edition of "mtp daily." republicans have a convention crisis on their hands, full stop.

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