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tv   The Place for Politics 2016  MSNBC  April 26, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm PDT

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an absolutely terrible night where he gets probably nothing or next to nothing while still try i trying to make the case he's a stronger candidate than donald trump and that's a hard thing to do. zpl we're about to find out some of that. it is upon us, the top of the 8:00 hour and with it, the ability with the closing of polls to make our very first projections. we start in the state of pennsylvania. upper left. we are projecting that when all the votes are counted, donald trump will be the victor. not only the victor, a significant victory tonight for donald trump. in the pennsylvania primary. in the state of maryland, on the gop side, we're projecting when all the votes are counted, donald trump will be the victor there. again, a significant victory for donald trump as it will be in connecticut. as the voting heads up in new england tonight, two states up there voting. donald trump, our projected
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winner and on the democratic side, a significant victory being projected for hillary clinton as expected in the state of maryland. those are the only races of all of the races, both party, five states, that we can project at this hour. >> so, that's what's interesting is whoat's not on the board on the republican side. too early to call still in delaware and rhode island. and on the democratic side, everything except maryland. >> wrae, i want to see a democrat in rhode island. >> that's going to be very interesting. the one state we've seen poll ng the last week that had bersy sanders ahead. a ppp poll that had him plus four in rhode island. there's a lot of moving parts in rhode island. such a small state. maricopa county, arizona, they had these huge long lines after they closed 70% of their polling places. the state of rhode island decided to do that tonight. they closed 70% of their polling places for this race tonight.
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we have no idea what kind of effect that is going to have. one showed clinton up, one showed sanders up. no polling in delaware, but delaware, rhode island, pennsylvania and connecticut all too early to call on the democratic side and that's just going to be, there's a lot of suspense. that is going to be an spresing night to see how this works out. >> robert costa, who covers politics for the "washington post" and joins us at moments like this. robert, we can call this already early in the evening, a significant night for donald trump. >> these are sweeping victories for the trump campaign. going across the northeast. the corridor as many insiders are calling it and this really underscores trump's strength as he moves towards the convention. he's winning over suburban voters who have long been skeptical of trump as well as the rural voters in the center of this state and he's looked across the map in new england as well. these are places where trump has
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strength. states like massachusetts and where he continues to do the same. >> and robert, some prognostication from you. what about the states that are outstanding? we have them all listed as too early. >> too early is is is a lot of that is because we haven't seen exit poll data yet emerge from those states. what we're looking at in those states is a republican electorate in a blue state. democratic state in a general election that has heavily conservative core on its republican side. >> exactly what we laid out at the start of the inky. >> it's a good point. robert's right there. you look at the margins of victory in the general elections in these states voting tonight. maryland, 2008, 2012, 25, 26 point wins for obama. connecticut, 22 and 17 point wins. delaware. 25 and 19 point wins in in rhode island, obama won in 2008 and 2012 by a 28-point margin. the only one where it was in single digits was in pennsylvania, where romney got within five points in 2012, but
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these are blue states and the fact pennsylvania was even approaching the status of the swing sate i think makes the pennsylvania victory for donald trump all the more important. in terms of trying to think about him as a general election nominee for the republican party. but mostly what we're looking at is extrapolating a minority, republican electorate that's not used to winning anything in these states having a chance to have an impact on a really, really big decision. >> before we are joined by our studio family, nicole wallace, chuck todd are from philadelphia in a critical state. what do you make of it so far? >> i wanted to follow up on what you guys were talking about. there's another pattern we've noticed with trump. the weaker the republican party is in a state, the less successful it is, the better trump does. the more successful a republican party is is in a given state, for the most part, the better the shot that cruz has had. so, that's why for instance, they feel so good about indiana. that's whey they won in wisconsin. but look at what trump has done
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in states that have democratic governors. in primaries. we think, i think he's going to sweep it again tonight. four of these five have democratic governors here. he's not only oning, but one big, it's as if republican voters in those states are saying you know what, the establishment has done nothing for us here. we're trying to outsider, so trump has more strength in those states. >> when you extrapolate from that, or can you extrapolate from this, general election prospect sns. >> not at all. can i just say, not at all. this has, remember all those, all those urban counties, all those blue counties that mitt romney carried. santorum, romney and romney would win cuyahoga. wow. did we think that was going to translate? it is, this doesn't extrapolate at all. barack obama dominated the deep south in 2008. i think alabama was one of his better states.
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how did he do in alabama in general election? it is, this is a waste of our energy to try to extram late. >> we have what the results we went through at the top of the 8:00 hour. the races we have already called, meaning projected. all other races, too early to call. let's get reaction from in order, hugh hewitt, nicole wallace and rouge robinson. hugh? >> i think it's exactly what we expected. five for five for donald trump tonight. we'll have to get granular later and see if that big win for him in pennsylvania crossed over into his people being able to elect the unbound delegates leaning towards trump, because that's what matters, he's still going to need 286 out of ten tonight. i got to disagree with ate l with robert. i don't see the momentum in the northeast translating into indiana. and what chuck just said about democratic governors, of course, that puts our eye on california
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where governor brown is in his fourth or fifth term. been on a long full-timtime and wonder whether that will help out donald trump come california on 7th, but in line. >> hugh, can i just ask you, on the issue of governors and you were highlights mike pence, nicole was pointing out earlier this hour that a lack of a pence cruz endorsement is surprising when you just look at these guys idea logically and the issues they care about. pence keeping his counsel and thot endorsing anybody, even as cruz is throwing efg he's got into that state. if pence doesn't endorse cruz, is that a blow to him? >> you'd love to have mike pence, but also keep him on the shelf into tomorrow. so, if you're going to roll out mike pence, you do it tomorrow. dan coates, the senator from indiana, do it tomorrow on top of the bad news to to kill the stair. if he doesn't get him, too bad, but you mentioned earlier that
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donald trump is ahead by six points. yes, he is, but that was before the kasich concession of indiana to ted cruz and i believe on the margin of a lot of those kasich voters are going to walk over to cruz. i've kind of given cruz the edge in indiana. >> is he out of indiana? physically still there. the cruz superpac still running ads against him. not sure this deal is going to result in a change in their behavior. squl i think it is. it has. when john weaver tweets out that we're pulling out of indiana, you're pulling out of indiana. and there may be some buys made a week ago. i'll leave it to nicole, but she can't clear out, but governor kasich's going up to oregon and new mexico. >> every time you say granular, steve kornacki thinks we're going to do house to house research. nicole, you're name was invoked. >> i think it's very difficult to say that there's no
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connection between stunning, wide margin victories in states in a general election are never targeted by the republicans. no republican campaign would ever spend money resources targeting connecticut or delaware. fair enough. but this has been a nationalized primary from go. other than wisconsin and iowa which was a caucus, there have not been state by state campaigns run in these states and there have not been widely variable state by state outcomes. this has been a nationalized election, so, not that you can extrapolate what will happen in tend, but there is nothing happens tonight that deviates from the narrative. this is a huge night for truch. he's in a very strong position. his campaign thinks they are going to get to 1237, but you know, i know there are still people holding out hope that we will get to an open convention and see what happens. >> most nights you speak and your head is framed by a large trump. eugene. >> there was a poll i think it was a fox poll. that of indiana, that factored
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out kasich. and just had trump and cruz and it was close. but trump was still ahead. so, you know, you could imagine cruz eking out a victory there. maybe. i frankly can't imagine it hurting trump that much and you know, you were just saying in the break, you read that sentence, donald trump, business man and reality show star. he just won three more primaries. three more states and everybody expects he'll probably add two more. this is an astounding political story. >> it gets more astounding. looking down the road politically, there is bernie sanders, let's listen in. choosing to speak after the 8:00 hour in the east in huntington, west virginia. >> what we are seeing on national polls, which have us 15, 20 points ahead of donald trump, far more than secretary clinton.
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almost, almost every national poll in every state poll. has us defeating trump in that margin for us is significantly larger than that of secretary clinton. and the reason that we are doing so much better against republican candidates is that not only are we winning the overwhelming majority of democratic votes, but we are winning independent votes and some republicans votes as well. and that is a point that i hope the delegates to the democratic convention fully understand.
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in a general election, democrat, independent, republican, has the right to vote for president. the elections are not closed primaries. we were in new york state last week. three million people in new york state could not vote -- >> boo! >> because they were independents. those folks and independents all over this country, will be vote ing in november for the next president of the united states. and in most cases, we win the independent vote by a 2-1 margin.
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this campaign is doing as well as it is with the extraordinary energy and enthusiasm that we are generating all across this country. look at, look at this room here tonight. we have over 6,000 people. >> bernie! bernie! >> and the reason that we are generating this enthusiasm is because we are doing something very unusual in contemporary american politics. we are telling the truth.
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now, the truth is is as every person here knows, whether it is in our own personal lives or our broad national political life, truth is not always pleasant. it's not always something you are happy to hear. but if we go forward as human beings, as nation, we cannot sweep the hard realities of our lives underneath the rug. we got to bring it out, we have to deal with it. unfortunately, media in this country for a variety of reasons largely because they're owned by major corporations, do not deal in most cases.
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there are great exceptions, but they do not deal with the realities of our lives in a way that we need to be discussing. >> bernie sanders speaking in west virginia. if you're a hillary clinton partisan, you would hear that and say exactly, some truths are very hard to get across and digest, that was a jest of "the new york times" story. found very damaging today. they're going reevaluate and reassess their campaign effort tochblt that's because hillary clinton was widely predicted to be going into a very good night tonight. we have all the other races on the democratic side too early to call. thus far, she has been awarded maryland primary in our projection. kristen welker covering the
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clinton campaign effort. another ballroom, another primary election tonight happens to be philadelphia. hey, kristen. >> hey there, brian. usually on these primary nights, i'm talking to about how the clinton campaign has spent the day down playing expectations. they've already of course netted that one win in maryland and they are expecting to have a strong showing throughout these five states. polls show they're ahead here in pennsylvania. as well as delaware. she seems to be looking strong in connecticut as well. of course, senator sanders could pick off a win in rhode island. her crowd here, energized, brian, as they await her arrival here to take the podium to address them. look, we've been talk iing a lo about how the sanders campaign may or may not reassess after tonight. i can tell you that i've been talking to clinton campaign
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officials who say if secretary clinton has a strong night tonight, they could reassess their strategy and what that indicates is that we might see a much larger shift in the general election. of course, we've seen secretary clinton start to pivot already. she's had much sharper attacks for donald trump both in terms of what she's been saying on the stump and the ads she's been releasing. if she has a strong night, we could see that shift take on a whole new turn. so, that's what we'll be watching for. i've been talk iing to one democratic campaign official here in pennsylvania who tells me that the turnout very strong in philadelphia today. particularly in communities with high african-american populations and that could bode well for secretary clinton. >> all right. again, telling. we were just watching bernie sanders event in west virginia. tonight's big hoped for victory celebration there in pennsylvania for the clinton campaign. here in new york, donald trump is is hoping for a little home field advantage tonight.
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he will appear we're told in the lobby of trump tower. presumably after more projections and results are in. katy tur covering for us. >> he's supposed to appear around 9:00, so about 45 minutes from now. by all accounts, so far, it is a good night for donald trump. it is expected to be a good night for donald trump and the campaign is feeling good. i once again want to point out, this is no surprise that he's winning among those who are angry at washington. tired of the establishment. those who say they want change. it's the same thing we've been seeing in state after state, but keep a close eye on what happens in pennsylvania. so farc he's won all 17 delegates there, but there are 54 unbound delegates there that could make or break this election. unbound delegates in the same way they're free agents. they can change their mind.
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they can decide to vote for whomever they want. donald trump has put forth a slate of delegates and she's hoping that people vote for ones that are pro donald trump, ones they hope will remain loyal to them, but again, those 54 delegates, this is close, could make or break his chances to win on a first ballot. >> katy tur, we'll be rejoining you when he gets closer to the podium. another break for us. our live coverage continues after this. they found out who's been hacking into our network.
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who? guess. i don't know, some kids in a basement? you watch too many movies. who? a small business in china. a business? they work nine to five. they take lunch hours. like a job? like a job. we tracked them. how did we do that? we have some new guys defending our network. new guys? well, they're not that new. they've been defending things for a long time. [ digital typewriting ] it's not just security. it's defense. bae systems. billions are spent to confuse and, dare i say it, flummox the american public.
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that's what we have all other races too early to call. the only, critical pennsylvania, upper left, hillary clinton -- >> in terms of the victories by donald trump, how he is winning. steve, what do we know is this. >> we have the exit polls. pennsylvania, maryland, connecticut. we can take a look f you put them tokt, this is a scale of the wins racking up. before tonight, if you looked at the category of conservative voters, trump was getting 35% on average in all the primaries and caucuses. tonight, that number among very conservative has jumped to 52. so, if he's doing that well with very conservative voters, you could imagine how well he's doing with others. also, same story.
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white evangelicals before tonight, he was averaging about 37. there aren't a lot of white evangelicals, but he jumps to 70%. we're looking at where he's going to rack up delegates. connecticut, the key number in connecticut is 50%. if he can break 50% statewide, he'll get all of the debt gattis in connecticut. we're looking at all these different groups. right now, the exit polls are saying he's well over 60%. >> forgive the interruption. rhode island, this is the latest. donald trump will add rhode island to his tally. that will give trump his second new england state. >> steve kornacki, looking at that rhode island results, am i right in remembering that ted cruz needs to worry about how badly he does there in specific terms because he's got to clear 10% in order to qualify?
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>> the bad news for ted cruz, rhode island doesn't look like a good state for him. it has the lowest threshold to start collecting delegates. since we're seeing monster trump numbers tonight, we better put this into the mix. if everybody's over 10%, they're going to split them one, one, one, one. unless donald trump breaks 67% in one of those congressional districts in rhode island. that number seemed unreachable at the start of tonight. it may prove to be. based on what we're seeing in some of these other stitt states and what rhode island looks like demographical demographically, donald trump is going to do real well in rhode island. >> thank you. down to chuck todd. chuck? >> i just for the longest time and nicole and i i would have this conversation week after week. we'd talk about donald trump is
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is winning, but can't get over 50%. we're not talking about him getting over 60% in multiple states tonight. probably over 50% in our five states tonight. that's a big deal. we're going to, i think we're going to look back on tonight and say it was the beginning of the end of this primary battle because trump is doing a whole heck of a lot better than anybody projected he would do on this night just five weeks ago. i had an operative swear to me about a month ago, we can hold trump under 1,000 delegates by the end of this primary season. my gosh, he could be at 11,000 by the middle of may. we're already at 900 now after what we've projected the delegates we've awarded him just based op the projectioned we've made in three primary states. he could get close to 950. you know, i'm just trying to understand how indiana is going to make up all that ground. trump having now not just a
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narrow path, but a clear path to this nomination if these numbers are holding. >> let me just ask you in terms of what steve kornacki was saying f you look at trump's numbers before tonight and you look at them tonight, with white ev evangelical, he's turning it significantly better numbers. we also saw today or this week, the nbc news survey monkey national poll put donald trump within majority of support, at 50%. for the first time. it yus seems like since is race got down to three people, there's no sign he's doing anything other than consolidating his position. >> very quick. look, voters are coming to terms with trump as the nominee a lot faster than the leaders of the republican party and guess what, the voters have been speaking a lot louder and a lot clearer than the leaders sitting in washington. >> chuck todd, thank you, my friend. let's bring in ben ginsburg,
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former general councsel to the rny. smart guy when it comes to the math of these things, the rules and how people get to the finish lip. thanks for fbeing here. in terms of donald trump's math, it's my impression, looking at this stuff, conclusion this is a race, may not be the strongest front-runner ever but not -- any sort of a run for his money. >> he's had a good night tonight. the talk about it being a narrow path is absolutely right. so is new york from before that, but this is still coming down to the delegates is how we can do in california. it's one of those democratic states. 39 of the congressal districts are democratic districts. 14 are held by republicans. it will come down to whether the
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cruz and kasich forces can can amass. to be abe to hold the number. >> i have to interrupt you, another state has come in. this is what happens a half hour after poll closing. for the democrats, state of delaware, we're projecting it will be hillary clinton. here's the part been will be interesteded in. for the republicans, we are projecting another a donald trump vktry tonight in delaware. how dois that stop trump moveme coming along? >> from trump's perspective, pretty well, i think. so, it really is a big night for him. he still is is not going to be able to put it away before california. which is what makes it so interesting. >> a sweep as you're seeing on the bottom of your screen, all five, i'm looking at our big board here. all five states republicans, donald trump. >> yeah. and you know, listen. the trump campaign, sorry, the
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cruz campaign, the one thing they are really good at is the way they characterize the race. and in particular, all this criticism to the media, they're really good at getting the media to talk about things in the way they want them to be talked about. the cruz campaign, that doesn't matter for picking a republican race. only indiana matters. i think there's no reason to walk away. >> we take a shot periodically of nicole to prove to her loved one she's sitting up and taking nourishment. you okay? >> just breathe calmly through an open mouth. >> i think chuck laid it out exactly right. the gop voters, the deciders in all o th and it's a story about the complete disembodiment of the gop establishment. and what our voters are saying loud and clear is they like what trump says about the economy.
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they like the way he says it and they like him a lot more than they like the other guys. all the other guys. all 16 of them. i don't think anyone said tonight is the definition of victory and success tonight for the stop trump movement, which is now under the umbrella of the unity ticket, would be for cruz and kasich to take six out of delaware and rhode island. just the benchmarks for the stop cruz movement. >> 23 delegates combined. >> we're talking low expeck tases. >> that's what they're going to call a win. >> that's what keeps them alive to indiana. >> it's such a mess. >> one thing i think we've learned about the voerts, is they're really tired of spin. they are just totally done with spin. exactly. and so, the spin that somehow these don't count and it's all
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on indiana and -- >> because that's a place ted cruz might win, therefore, it matters. >> 23 delegates would be a great night for cruz. >> they're not that delusional. >> nobody's going to believe that. and worse. people are going to hear that and say they know nobody's going to believe that and they lose credibility. >> the music means we must go to a break, but as we do, do not adjust your sets. donald trump times five. that is a sweep of tonight's gop contest. more in a moment including donald trump himself.
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let's take a look at the two big walls. here's how it looks for the trats. here are the projections so far, you see them. maryland, delaware. all else, too early to call. there's been some. >> jeff k.: of the tinier pictures, but we'll deal with that later. here are all of the projection, now for the republican side, a whole lot of donald trump. democratic primary in connecticut. the democrats, okay, we're back to -- how, wait a minute. he didn't win six of them tonight. so, it's just total delegates on the lower left. >> here's what's happened. donald trump won all five. hillary clinton has been projected as the winner in maryland and delaware. >> wow. it's like being at circuit city.
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it's difficult. >> or like one of those game shows we have to hop around like human checkers. you know. never mind. >> rachel maddow to block. >> a match made in political heaven and we turn to you now to tell us with absolute grav to expertise and energy how donald trump gets to a first ballot victory. >> i'll do the energy. the question here, 1237. we're trying to get trump to 1237. tonight, we know. we're looking at trump landslides here. we can speed through this part of the board. he came into tonight, our e estimate had him at 845. say for the purpose of this, he walks away with 106 of the delegates tonight. sound good? we're going to put him at 9511 coming out tonight. now take a look. these are the states to come. remember, 1237 is the target. trump comes out with 951.
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we head to indiana. the key thing, how they give out these delegates. you win the state, get 30, there's nine districts, three each. this looks like if trump can win it, he could get a ton of delegates here. >> breaks the back of ted cruz. he's one of the one-on-one. he's got it here. ground game to go into the congressional districts and actually do well door to door. >> but you look at this, some are saying for the stop trump movement, must win or they're not going to stop them. do you agree with that about indiana? >> indiana's key. it won't be a mathematical certainly because of california, but that's going to be important for ted cruz to be able to show he's still in the race. >> if trump were to win the state and get six congressional districts, that would be 48. that would take that 951 to 999. what would come next? west virginia, this looks like it's a little complicated with
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the delegates, but boy, this looks like a trump state on paper. >> it does. we'll end up awarding him the three statewide, the three rnc members for west virginia. it's a really complicated state to figure out. for the morning after. it will be a while before people figure out how he's actually. >> but he can get a ton of those. we'll see nebraska looks like a cruz state. >> absolutely. >> so, take that, if we gave him 30 from west virginia though, he'd be here at 1029. what else we have, these two state, washington and oregon, they're proportional. if you said half? 40%. >> call it 32. so, 32 from that puts him at 1061 and that brings us to june 7th. new jersey, winner take all, trump. >> chris christie's state. he's endorzed him. give it to trump. >> all 51. to 1112. we go across the country. south dakota, montana, winner take all.
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both cruz? >> yes. >> new mexico, we know that's part of the deal. maybe ten there for trump? >> i think you have to give him at least ten. just upon o the basis of how well he's done in similar states. >> 12. so, 1124. 1237 is the target. one state left. the last state. california and the way they do this, if you win the state, you get 13, otherwise 53 congressional delegates times three. so, if we get him the 13 for winning the state, he'd be at 1137. he'd be exactly 100 away from the target, which would mean 34 districts. he'd need to win 34 of those 53. does that seem correct? >> it is doable. cruz and kasich, the stop trump movement have to go into the individual districts. it is st still a very democratic state with a lot of democratic districts. donald trump has done well there, but it's also a ground game area and that's where the trump and the cruz and kasich forces have to be really strong. >> and we hear so much about
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that. the cruz people are talking about california. we got this thing organized as a district level. in the face of momentum from trump of wins from trump, of trump blg on the verge of nomination, do you think you can organize a congressional district in the face of a statewide tie? >> i do because there are few republican voters in any number of those districts. get as many delegates for winning nancy pelosi's district in the middle of san francisco as you do for winning the most conservative in orange county or central valley. have to divide the states. >> it is most democratic districts, big d. i have a question, what if he comes up just short. saying he needs 34. what if he gets 30. what if he's 20 delegates short. is he efblgtively the nominee in that scenario. >> life is going to be good if qulour one of the unbound delegates because you'll get a lot from the trump forces. that is a doable number.
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there will be that 40-day period period from the start of the convention. and probably pressure. that's the other thing. we should just point out. those 54 in pennsylvania. we've been talking about. we're not even considering them in this scenario. >> they would go into the 20. going to be our key, think of that factoring into this math. >> unbound delegate. your going to get all the complimentary bread sticks you can eat. like a mink bathrobe. >> somewhere right now in american politics, there is a republican operative shopping fleet prices on new cars because they're going to pull an oprah and say, hey, unbound delegates, reach under your seat, those keys -- >> i mean, it's legal. >> back to the serious business of tonight. connecticut, democratic primary.
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let's change our call here. we're still at too close, but look at what has switched on the leaderboard. bernie sanders now in the lead in connecticut. >> too close to call. >> given that it is too close. we have gone from too early to too close. and now, the lead has switched back. >> that's why it's too close. >> watch this space. more to come. quick break for us. we'll be back. we're expecting to hear from donald trump in the next 15 minutes.
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we are back with an update on the democratic board. connecticut is too close, but the three projections, the two we keep doing that. already for maryland and delaware. >> that lower left hand corner is just the overall delegate assessment. >> it is misleadinging, please. >> i will go stand in front of it. there are five trumps tonight. so, let's stop doing that. okay. >> i feel better. if still there at the end of this break, i will get up. >> it's a coup, i'll join you. >> we'll physically block it out. >> together. >> senator jeff merkley joins us now, the one member of the united states senate not named bernie sanders who has endorsed
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bernie sanders. >> it's wonderful to be with you. very exciting night. >> it is. we've got a couple of races called. we've got two that are still too early the to call on the democratic side. one that's too close to call. what's your overall take? >> i'm so impressed, the lead in rhode island and it's a dead draw in connecticut or bernie just up slightly or hillary, then bernie up. he comes out of tonight and goes into indiana and west virginia and then oregon. and it's better territory for him there. i think this looks like a pretty strong showing so far given the expectations. >> the expectations heading into this were that hillary clinton probably was looking really good in three states and connecticut and rhode island i would say. were senator sanders' best hopes. if you get wider than just tonight's results, the sanders campaign has used a variety of different forms of language to talk about the size of their
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path and the likelihood of their path. do you think in the heart of hearts that bernie sanders is going to end up being the nominee? >> id d u you follow the nationals in the 15th inning the other night in they had their pitcher up to pat. it was two outs and this pitcher hadn't been at bat for six years and they won the game. if you look at the national poll, they keep closing. essentially it's a dead heat. his momentum has continued forward. he's got favorable states to come. yes, it's an uphill climb, but things have happened in campaigns. >> stand by just for a second because i want to bring steve kornacki into this conversation. that's an imperical question in terms of how possible it is for senator sanders to get there. what is sanders' path from here on out? >> here's the problem for sanders right now. the senator is right. he may win a couple states
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tonight. he could win rhode island. he could win connecticut. here's the problem. he came into the night down 240 roughly in the pledge delegate count. if he has a really good night i win, he wins, say, 16 to 8 there. he picks up 8 delegates out of rhode island. if he has a good night in connecticut and wins there, he picks up 5 to 10 delegates out of that state. here's the problem. he is getting massacred right now in maryland. 95 delegates in maryland and this thing is a blowout. he's probably going to lose 30 to 35 delegates, coming out of maryland tonight. so that 240 just from maryland, this is a rough approximation. we don't have the final results yet, but we are seeing an overwhelming margin in these exit polls. that could jump to 270 just from maryland. good night for him in connecticut. let's say he picked up 10 there. now it's down to 252. we also have her win dg delaware. she's going to pick up -- say she picks up 5 there. we're at 257.
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pennsylvania, we haven't called it. let's say it's a 50/50 tie. he wins one more delegate than she does. then this thing is down to 256. he's lost ground on the night. if he loses ground on the night and he's down 256 coming out of tonight, this is all that's left. and you're looking at a situation here where new jersey sets up really well for her demographically. look at all the delegates there. he could do really well in south dakota and north dakota and montana and new mexico, maybe kentucky, maybe west virginia. not a lot of delegates here. tough to make up that gap. and yeah, there's a whole bunch sitting out here in california. the polls show him down, but competitive. competitive in california. but if he's winning california by, let's say he wins it by four points. right now that would be a pretty big upset for bernie sanders. how many of those delegates will he gain on her with a four-point win there? not many. it is so hard in a proportional system to make up the kind of gap he's facing. lose one state big like maryland, it can throw your whole night off. >> so senator merkley, having
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heard steve kornacki do that and talk about the math of the path, forgive the rhyme, i feel like, just as an observer of this, as someone who is legitimately impartial among these candidates, i feel like there is no way that senator sanders ends up with the nomination. and therefore, i'm interested in the right way for senator sanders to end this, in a way that's going to be the best for his cause, the best for his supporters, the best for the democratic party. what's your view on that? >> certainly, the math gets harder after tonight. that's clear, just from the maryland numbers. but, the national conversation gets closer and closer. you saw on the front page of "the new york times" today, the conversation about how trade dialogue is changing. it's been devastating our manufacturing jobs in america. that's what bernie sanders has been talking about for years. you saw in the papers today, the impact of global warming in a variety of ways. he's been saying we have to pivot fast off of fossil fuels. there's urgency and there's
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passion. and we see the national polls have just come together to where it's essentially a draw nationally. and yes, it's late, it's late, much of the nation has voted, before they really thought bernie sanders had a chance. but this conversation is healthy for the democratic party. this is creating a tension, this is creating energy. and whoever comes out ahead and whoever comes out behind, they're going to have to reach out to each other, to build a bridge, and they're going to have to go arm and arm into the convention and arm and arm into the november election. >> are you convinced that that will happen? obviously, the clinton campaign, because they're leading, they keep talking about the necessity of that, about coming together, about making sure that all democratic or centrist or center-left voters are all pulling in the same direction come november. senator sanders and his campaign have been much cooler on that prospect, i've been talking about conditions for getting senator sanders' supporters to go over to clinton. what -- have you taken that up with senator sanders himself? >> let's turn the clock back
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eight years. hillary was behind. she was fighting all the way through california. that was june 7th. after june 7th, the dust cleared, and on june 8th, both barack obama and hillary reached out. they locked arms, and we're going to see something very similar to that. it's, you know, it's a slightly different dynamic, but, listen, as bernie has said, if he doesn't win this primary, then he's going to do everything possible to make sure that donald trump is not president of the united states. and i think that goes also for ted cruz, if trump should stumble here. maybe double down on that for ted cruz. so -- and many of us will work on both sides of this, to bring the party together. >> oregon senator jeff merkley, sir, really appreciate you being here tonight. it is an exciting night. lots still to be decided. thanks for making time to be with us. >> you're welcome. thank you. >> senator, thank you. and let's go quickly to rhode island, just a little update
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here, while the conversation was underway, bernie sanders is now leading in rhode island. a lot of people, as of yesterday, today, as we discussed here, talked about a break to sanders in rhode island. a lot of problems in rhode island right now, including immigration, including high unemployment, and that's why people anticipated donald trump and bernie sanders could perhaps both have a good night there. still too early. but bernie sanders in the lead. chuck todd is watching all of this with us from philadelphia. >> thanks, brian. i've got former longtime pennsylvania congressman, bob walker here. good to see you. you were with john kasich from the very beginning. you're a longtime pennsylvania republican. it's a blowout. what happened? this should have been a john kasich state. six weeks ago, there was talk that john kasich could win pennsylvania. he finished third tonight. >> well, the fact is that
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pennsylvania is a very large state, and we extended resources in places like new york and tried to make a go of it there. what you're seeing is, though, that john kasich overall tonight has moved into the really competitive position. he's the one who is the second in most of the states there tonight. and so i think what it shows is that he is going to have a pretty good story to tell delegates. and for us and for them, it's all about delegates. and we're going to do pretty well in pennsylvania on the delegate side. >> are you? >> yes. >> i mean, there's no evidence that you are. it's been a rough night. it's cruz that's organized on the ground. trump -- i don't hear about kasich cards going in for the election of these unbound delegates. >> we've been talking to those delegates and we believe that we have a plurality of the delegates from pennsylvania right now, who will be with us, come the second ballot. and so the whole question here is whether or not you can get donald trump to not win on the first ballot. >> why don't republican primary voters care about electability?
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it's your biggest talking point for john kasich is electability. why do you think primary voters don't care? >> well, because i think what they are consumed with is an awful lot of anger and concern about the country. and trump has the message there. that the people who are concerned about electability are delegates. and that's the reason why we're having a pretty good time at the present time, talking to delegates about the kasich candidacy, and his ability to beat hillary clinton. >> all right. we will see. can john kasich win one more state before the convention? >> i think he can. >> we'll be watching. good to see you, sir. >> thanks, chuck. nice to be with you. >> brian, rachel, back to you guys. >> a quick break for us. we're back at the top of the hour where we're expecting donald trump from trump tower in new york.
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