tv The Place for Politics 2016 MSNBC May 17, 2016 9:00pm-10:01pm PDT
good evening from new york, technically good morning here on the east coast. nbc news is projecting bernie sanders of the winner of the oregon primary. donald trump, the presumptive nominee cruised to victory there. perhaps not surprising. john kasich pulling in a strong 17%. hillary clinton wins 47% to 46% with 99% of the vote in. if those results stand, this would be clinton's first outright state victory in three
weeks. the sand irs camp says they could call for a recount. they will make a decision on wednesday. sanders is speaking to an enthusiastic crude in southern california before nbc news projected the race in oregon, he thanked the voters in kentucky and laid out what he sees as his path forward to the convention in philadelphia. >> in a couple of weeks if we can win big in new jersey, new mexico, north and south dakota, montana, california, we have the possibility -- [ cheers and applause ] >> it will be a steep climb. i recognize that. but we have the possibility of going to philadelphia with the majority of the pledged delegates. let me also say a word to the leadership of the democratic
party. and that is -- that is, that the democratic party is going to have to make a very very profound and important decision. it can do the right thing and open its doors and welcome into the party people who are prepared to fight for real economic and social change. >> joining me now from that rally is nbc's chris jansing. i have to say, striking to me how he came across on the television set. it looked like it could have been a rally four months ago. >> and it looks like a rally where he thought he might have won actually in kentucky, but he came out and said, we basically split the delegates. we basically tied in a state
where she really won easily the last time around. if anybody thought that he was going to be cowed by the criticism of people like debbie wasserman schultz and barbara boxer and other members of -- other supporters of hillary clinton about what happened over the weekend in nevada, he was not issuing a challenge to the democratic party and suggesting that anyone who says that bernie sanders should jump out of the race is someone who's suggesting that the votes of california shouldn't count. you can just imagine the reaction when in the middle of this stump speech, he came out and said, jane sanders just told me that oregon has been called for bernie sander thes and it is our 20th state and the place went absolutely wild. he is calling this the beginning of his push here in california. he's going to be barnstorming the state, anybody again who
thought there was any chance if he lost a state today he may be giving any consideration to the path going-forward, he made it clear tonight as he and his campaign aids told me earlier today, nothing that happened tonight was going to change the trajectory of this race, they are moving forward through california, through the district of columbia and on to the convention. this place is packed to the rafters, 11,168, chris. >> wow! that's a lot of people, thank you very much. >> joining me now at the table, tara edel, ben ginsburg who served on george w. bush and mitt romney's presidential campaigns. you spent a lot of time, casey with the sanders campaign. >> yes, how are they going to
land the plane. no, i mean this, what is -- like sanders says we can do math and they can do math everyone at this table can do math. they would have to win by 35 points by all the remaining contests. that is barring some anom house that's not going to happen. having spent as much time with them as you have, what do you think? >> there's been this internal struggle back and forth between jeff weaver on one side tad devine on the other, it waivers back and forth. the bernie sanders you've seen over the last 48 hours has ratcheted this up. look at that statement he put out earlier. how it contrasts with lucy florez, she put out a statement saying there should be no room for that kind of name calling of
female name calling for supporters of either hillary clinton or bernie clinton. i think it's becoming less and less clear how he lands this plane. there's going to be a serious reckoning at some point, how are they willing to take this. i'm not sure it's irreversible yet, but it seems in a much tougher place now than it did a month ago. >> i think we've seen this picture. this is the ron paul campaign that republican establishment candidates had to deal with in 2008 and 2012. the landing pad of the plane is the continuation of a set of ideals and a movement. >> which seemed very successful in 2010. >> absolutely, i think bernie sanders is taking a big step
toward this here you'll see it in rules changes potentially for how the primary is run. >> part of the issue here, i don't want to give a long statement about what happened in nevada. there was a battle at the state convention over rules changes and credentials about the apportionment of two delegates. the clinton people came out with two up they got two more than math would have said they should get. you're a veteran of these kinds of fights, does this all come out in the wash two months from now? >> ironically it was nevada in 2008 and 2012 on the republican side. you never quite know where we're going with this. you do have sort of a clash at a convention and a clash of wills. it gets worked out as the
convention proceeds. >> i think the sanders campaign would very much take on bridge to the ron paul comparison. they have such huge crowds and they've won so many states. >> it's not a thing that ron paul did. >> he would have been in a much -- with his votes. >> bernie sanders is in a stronger position than perhaps ron paul was. >> there's a moment tonight where people started chanting bernie or bust while sanders were speaking. bernie or bust is a thing that people say, sort of like the version of never trump. they're only going to vet for bernie. what do you think about that. >> we talked about this for a long time. bernie supporters who have been very aggressive. i think it's getting worse. or better for them. they're becoming much more passionate about it, to your point, i saw a different bernie sanders today in the last 24 hours, he's going harder, stronger, faster.
and that momentum is certainly paying off, but it's not even about policies, it's not about the issues any more. i think it's about the system, this is a political revolution. it's something that people want to hear. >> it is notable to me that bernie sanders who i've known for a long time interviewed many times, he would wrap you on the knuckles when you ask process questions he'll tell you, who do you work for again? make you do that. it is striking to me as much as they are on message about the middle class. a little bit of mission drift to where the point is the big issue is open or closed primaries in the democratic party. which to me doesn't seem that important compared to the issues this campaign started with laser like focus on. >> i think one thing people aren't talking about, there's a segment of bernie sanders
supporters that are looking to punish the democratic party. they don't think he is going to win the primary, they want to punish the party and they want to punish hillary clinton for what they believe has been not standing up to corporate interests, being a part of a rigged system. this is a part of that. >> let's be clear, the democratic party is complicit in all those things. in the sense that they're going to run a convention that's going to be sponsored by a bunch of fortune 500 countries. the critique is that this shouldn't be going on for either party and the democratic party is going to play ball with the corruption of campaign finance the same way. >> they think it should be paid for. >> it will most likely be decided by super delegates. >> if you had a scenario right
now where bernie sanders won the majority of pledged delegates and overrule the democratic will of the democratic party, then you would be chicago '68 literally. >> part of the count that hillary clinton talked about did potentially have an impact on voters who might have voted differently and certainly on the media coverage. >> one thing i would say, if it was having an effect we wouldn't see what we're seeing now which is democratic voters. my principle is, you listen to people voting they should determine the outcomes, that's what the country was founded on sort of. you look at the voters of the democratic party, they're saying, we want to keep going. 46% of us are going to vote for bernie sanders, they're not sending a message that we want this over. >> violence was striking this weekend in nevada, there were as
many sanders supporters as hillary supporters. she should be having a lot of supporters, she should be having rallies that are as big as that. at this point she has two opponents. bernie sanders is now hitting -- he's hitting donald trump now, he's in this general kind of -- what word am i looking for? >> in the general election. >> that's a good point about him hitting trump. as much as a ratcheting up as his statement seemed to be, he went after trump very hard. that seems to be he's adding more of that into his -- republican party betrays the working class. and he did leave a door open, in you welcome us in, that's broad enough that they can do things that he could turn around and
say they've done? >> potentially. i'm curious to see if there's pressure from his supporters to have him -- there were whispers from this, supporters of his that were saying, maybe you should get out now and focus on a group that's beating trump. i don't know if those calls are going to start to get louder. i think the central problem for hillary clinton is, there's this unsettled feeling about how the democratic party beats donald trump. they can't figure out how to do it if all of these young voters and bernie sanders voters are out there working for bernie. >> the race is in a strange moment where it's unsettled. they're really settling up on the republican side. let's play ball, baby. everyone's excited. >> up next, the first general election ad in hillary clinton's super pack and trump's response, stay with us.
you can see there was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever. does she have a
good body, no. does she have a fat ass? absolutely. you like girls that are 5'1", they come up to you know where. you can tell them to go [ bleep ] themselves. >> does donald trump really speak for you? priorities usa action is spoons for the content of this advertising. >> welcome to the general election 37 or at least a preview of what the general election could look like. courtesy of the super pac supporting hillary clinton. i think that ad is interesting for a number of reasons. the first is, casey, you made
the point that hillary clinton has two opponents. but priorities usa does not. they have more money, right? they can just start going to town. this is the beauty of the super pac. >> they apparently have. >> it's interesting this is the ad they started off with much there was an ad similar run by the never trump people. >> this is airing in swing states which is different. someone i was talking to involved in this today. made the point that they have to keep trump's unfavorables with women exactly where they are, and they're fine. they don't have to change any minds. the never trump folks were trying to convince republicans to keep away. part of the reason they moved this up from originally, they weren't going to start until after the democratic primary was functionally over, they don't want to let three weeks go by
without reminding this general election audience over and over again. they also found that about half of the voters they talked to were unaware that donald trump had said any of these things. >> absolutely. that stuff is not well known. >> if she wasn't my daughter i would be dating her, shocks me every time. here's the other thing i thought. trump went nuts today on this, was on twitter all day, he cannot -- you worked with the man opinion he's not going to. every attack, he's going to -- gets under his skin. there's no such thing as an attack that he's going to let go. >> this attack gets under his skin even more than some of the other attacks, which is why he was on twitter all day. he's going to stay on this, and this is very effective, i think the notion is, a lot of us are around -- people who think like us, we talk to each other, i
think what people don't realize is, when you're working on a campaign, a lot of people do not tune in until much closer to the race. people think that these things are having an impact when they absolutely are not. i worked on enough campaigns. have you to hit people over and over again to cut through the noise, and this can be a representative ad and it won't get too old with certain voters. >> this is a good point. we think of people having paid a lot of attention, they haven't. if you look at all sorts of metrics and performance. you look at television ratings for the debates, for instance. in a lot of ways, there's tens of millions of people who are just sort of tuning in. >> will they care? >> that's always my question. the unfavorables. we've been having this poll for two months now, 7 out of 10 women have an unfavorable view of donald trump.
i think more women have a favorable effect of yeast infections and man buns than they do donald trump. when you speak to women who do support trump, they are able to overlook those things. i think older women especially. >> that's true. but there's a kind of person who's a hardcore trump supporter. i find this fascinating, it's a personality thing. i would find this in reporting the republican primaries and caucuses. some people think, well, he's a businessman, he's going to straighten people out. other people are like, are you kidding me with this guy? it seems like there's a certain hardenness to this guy. >> if you're ticked off and you want to disrupt her, he's the guy.
it's an interesting strategic tactical choice about when to spend your money, what your subject matter is, and then ultimately what the effect is. >> i think they need to learn exactly that. >> another reason to start earlier, does it have an impact, does it not so there's time in the calendar to adjust if you have to. >> that's an excellent point. the marginal return on investment of television spending has been the lowest it's ever been. keep in mind state after state in which bernie sanders has outspent hillary clinton to lose. in most cases it did not seem to penetrate. >> is the ability to penetrate and cut through. in this instance, this is different. i'm a big ground game person.
i think that's important for the democratic party in particular. i think with this ad, one of the things that happened in the primary with donald trump is that people didn't attack him at first. the republicans didn't know what to do there was rebuffing, but it wasn't after his support had hardened so much, they started unleashing these ads. >> they never dropped a huge -- >> they also had the attitude you had, you got to be kidding me? >> i don't have that attitude, people have that attitude. i'm not -- you got to be kidding me now six months from election day. donald trump loves to say he's expanding the gop electorate. the data tells an interesting story. we'll talk about that next, do not go anywhere.
we are going to win so much more than anybody ever -- we're bringing in democrats and independents. you know what we're bringing in? people that have never voted before, it's amazing how many there are. >> donald trump is pointing to record turnout that he's expanding the gop electorate. still with me tara, ben, casey, the latest 12:22 a.m. tweet from
donald trump. paul begala has knowingly committed fraud in his first ad against me. maybe he's watching us, because we just played that ad. it's 99% clear he gets his information from cable news. cable news is good, but you should read things. >> meet the guy who thinks he's secretary of state in the trump at mid strain. >> yeah, there were a bunch of new voters, but they were not new voters in the sense of people who don't vote in presidential elections. they are new to the primary process. ergo, it's not necessarily creating a larger electorate you're dubious. >> i'm dubious, because what he did show is he got more interest
in the primary process. there are a lot of low propensity voters. turnout is still only 53%, which means you have a huge number of people who don't vote every presidential election. he's gotten more people involved in the primary. that you would call a good sign under any circumstances. >> that said, someone who has worked in politics, changing voter behavior is very hard. it's been a dream of progressives and folks on the left to get all these people voting. when you look at income numbers, the poorest among us vote at the lowest levels. it turns out to be super hard to do that. >> it's very hard. that's why the democrats take some shell agoings in these elections.
i would say this, there are, what you do when you work on a campaign, you target voters. the first group you target are the reliables. you want them to come out and vote for you. the next group, you do start to go down the line him having brought out some of these voters, it cannot hurt, it can only help. i don't see it as having been as big as what it's being made out to be. >> i think the clinton campaign is expecting him to turn out new voters in places they're not prepared for yet. the rnc is mining its own data to figure out who these people are, who are going to show up for donald trump. >> the democrats are going to run a huge experiment here can you keep the obama coalition at its presidential levels without barack obama. >> right, but with donald trump.
study after study shows what drives people to go vote is not what they want to vote for but who they want to vote against. who better to be that in donald trump. >> for republicans, absolutely. >> possibly. >> i did a focus group with republican women, and we had two trump supporters, three younger women. one of whom was on the fence, and who were saying not just that they were supporting hillary clinton, they were saying things like, she is the safe choice, she's experienced. all of the arguments that fit right into the ones the clinton campaign is already starting to make, i was surprised that these women who -- they worked around republican politics, it was really quite startling. >> let me also say. for someone who dominates attention the way donald trump is, there is no way this campaign doesn't end up a referendum on him, there's no way.
as much as republicans despise hillary clinton and they think she's this evil figure who's been scheming for 30 years, donald trump, it will be a referendum on donald twrump i don't seeing it not being. >> hillary clinton has the resume everyone drools over. donald trump is the disrupter. it's a year of disrupters. >> true, but it's ultimately a referendum on him. if they win, it's winning because he's embraced as that. >> it will be an incredibly negative campaign with people on both sides votes against. >> that is going to be where we end up. be about 90% unfavorables on both sides. >> that one woman, did you see the obituary? >> i always wondered. who writes that. >> you got to love a guy -- >> thanks to my panel.
man 2: i am. woman: ex-military? man 2: four tours. woman: you worked with computers? man 2: that's classified, ma'am. man 1: but you're job was network security? man 2: that's classified, sir. woman: let's cut to the chase, here... man 1: what's you're assessment of our security? man 2: [ gasps ] porous. woman: porous? man 2: the old solutions aren't working. man 2: the world has changed. man 1: meaning? man 2: it's not just security. it's defense. it's not just security. it's defense. bae systems.
donald trump is hiring a pollster which may be an unremarkable action for the presumptive nominee. except trump said this back in august. >> i don't have pollsters, i don't want to waste money on pollsters, i want to be real, i want to be me, we have enough of that in washington with pollsters telling everybody with a what to say. >> i don't have pollsters, i don't want to waste money on pollsters. the trump campaign will host a
veteran pollster. with me now, josh barrow, katherine rappell and michelle bernard. you have a whole panaplee happening at light speed. they signed a joint fund-raising agreement today. the party and the national party are going to raise money together. trump speaking about his financial regulation platform. i love this. >> it will be close to a dismantling of dodd/frank. it's developed a very bad name. the guy runs for a year, basically giving the finger to whole parts of donor orthodox and saying, i'm self-funding, i can say trade is bad. now it's like we sign the joint
agreement. now it's like, dodd/frank. >> the best way to prove you're not a puppet of wall street is to do exactly what wall street wants. >> this is an interesting moment to test this question there's a huge thing, money and politics doesn't matter as much as everyone said. >> i remember in the 2012 campaign when mitt romney's top aide said, oh, we'll shake the etch a sketch after the primary many it's clear that's donald trump's plan dodd frank is terrible, i'll dismantle it. first of all, he probably has no idea what's in dodd/frank, i'll dismantle most of it, that doesn't mean he has an idea in his head what he'll diagnose mantle and what he'll keep. i was at a meeting last week
with all these hedge funders. some of these people are getting comfortable where the idea of donald trump being president. donald trump will have to convince them that his agenda is good for wall street. you can't trust donald trump when he says what his position is on something. you can't believe him. >> he's a good enough salesman he's good enough to give people what they want to convince them. >> the policy someone dreams up in the next few weeks is not necessarily going to be a wall street wish list. he's going after bernie sanders voters now. he doesn't need anybody that much right now. >> i disagree. he has to raise a half a billion dollars. >> he doesn't have to raise -- >> i think the deal with the pollster is donald trump wants
to make sure he doesn't lose florida everybody says this pollster is a genius, that's the key to winning florida. the catch 22 for donald trump is, if he's going to be so supportive of wall street, okay if he's going to be this supportive of wall street and get rid of the very bad dodd/frank, how is he going to continue to square that with the masses of people that feel the economy has been so bad for them, they are unemployed, the world is against them, and that is their reason many. >> how many people wake up in the morning caring about dodd/frank. >> only the people at the las vegas conference. sanders voters care about it, let me say this. >> enough to maybe want to scrap it. >> let me say this we are seeing a very active negotiation happening between paul ryan and donald trump's camps it's the
terrain of the ryan budget, what are you going to do about "entitlements." the whole domestic policy agenda, they want him to sign on to that. >> i think he's going to. >> his thees us is, he doesn't have to chose. >> that's exactly right. >> and it's -- he's so far been able to make this work. he can go to one group and say, i'm going to roll back dodd frank, i'm for the little people against the banks and make it all sound convincing at the same time. >> his whole point has been, anything he says, is just an idea. >> didn't he say that? >> it's a suggestion. i might do it, i might not. >> my two favorite clips of the campaign, he literally picked up a statement and read to them his ethanol pandering, that's what you want to hear, right? >> and then also when he was at liberty university, he read the infamous 2 corin corinthianns.
he is nothing if not the most shameless panderer in the world. that's why i love the idea of seeing him pandering to donor class mode. that's the most shameless category that exists. >> he's not a big fan of the carried interest. >> it will go by the wayside. >> it's a predictive question. do you think that's going to stay? >> sure, i don't think he has that much motivation to go against it. i think he's still going to. >> you think he willing come against it still? >> he's going to try to keep enough populism open? >> what will end up happening, if we see him pandering to the donor class, he's going to look stiff. he's going to look like that foreign policy speech he gave. he will be a fish out of water. i don't think we'll see too much of it. >> he was right back last summer when he said he didn't need a pollster. >> he was correct, yes.
>> just because he had a great intuitive sense doesn't mean he has a great intuitive sense for the general election. >> this is the most dangerous thing for him. he has got this incredibly good ear for what the republican crowd wants to hear, and it's a specific crowd. >> he responds to the cheering. he looks at facebook comments all the time. that's how he's focus grouping everything. that is not america. the reason you hire a data operation, you can't figure that out based on your ear or comments. >> or talk radio. he's got to reach out to that great middle. he's got to watch your program. >> the guy watches a whole lot of cable news. this was another interesting poll to me today. who do you trust to lead the gop? donald trump 58%.
paul ryan 39%. well, i would hope he's most trusted. those numbers are meaningful in so far as the party. >> there's no leader which anyone is rallying behind. there's no adult in the room. what's happening right now, is bill crystal is on twitter saying register -- please someone run. they're so hopeless. the never trump thing is one of the most pathetic, i identify with them on some level. a strategic entity. oh, my god. it just -- trump won't win any primaries or delegates. >> donald trump may have picked up the most important endorsement of his campaign, that's after the break.
trump retweeted having called the fox news anchor a bimbo. >> did i say that? >> many times. >> ooh, okay. >> excuse me. >> what do you think was -- >> not the most horrible thing, politically -- not the most -- over your life megyn you've been call called worse. >> now you have my cell phone number. >> i do. >> you promised you wouldn't use it for evil. >> i won't. >> back with me i think this is actually think donald ales donald trump circling each other. all this buildup, they'll square off, and then at times it felt genuine. the megyn kelly network special
tonight -- >> love in. >> totally a love in. struck me as now we're all unified. >> yeah, it's weird, right. >> i'm weirded out by the way she seems to have come around by it. >> it's embarrassing for her. she was attacked in ways that were totally inappropriate and unprofessional. >> a lot of people made a lot of money tonight. >> if you played devil's advocate. i didn't see the whole interview, i've been here all night. there's something to be said for the female journalist who is willing to go back, take him on rather than running away and saying -- >> to me, what this signaled was, to me, it was, the show runners of the campaign sort of wrapping up this thread, this plot point before we enter into the next act of the plot.
okay, remember we had the beef with fox news? >> i think it's more forward looking than that they need to have something warmer than a day tant. they need the access, and they need the ratings frankly. i think it's not just about finishing up yesterday's business, it's about how do we keep this relationship going on. >> for trump, it's about campaign. it was a brilliant and new and weird thing to take on the conservative media establishment in this. we hadn't seen this. many of the things we hadn't seen coming from trump. >> people are coming up to me, i'm watching you folks now, because i can't trust fox. >> there's a lot of silicon spirscy theorizing about that. people assert murdoch has more
control over fox than he does. roger ales runs that network. i don't think we're going to see greg got field reading a hostage video talking about how much he loves donald trum. >> this was the big network special on the network. a big megan -- this is not the cable network, it's the network that's in every television set in america. and that is run -- roger ales has nothing to do with that. that is a statement -- >> it's more mainstream, they gave donald trump a fabulous opportunity in this interview to reach out to all of the women voters he has scared, he might possibly have lost. >> who he requires if he has any prayer in this election. >> that's the reason to do it on the network rather than fox news
channel. he's just speaking to the choir. >> it's also just another domino in the like i find the musing spectac spectacle. this whole idea, we should fight him everywhere. >> most of the institutions, not all. he's actually behind what you would expect for a nominee. they won't support him in the general election. three more than would be normal. even if he's able to get most of the institutions on board, there are parts of the establishment that are unwilling to lift a finger to do anything for him. >> even if they're not never trumpers, they're sitting on their hands for the most part.
>> i don't think it's such a big hit for donald trump if mitt romney isn't out there stomping for him. >> i don't know if it's a big hit for him either. i think it's a big hit for the republican party if we don't see more people being very vocal and saying, are we so desperate as republicans to win an election that we're going to give up our morals. i loved watching -- reading george wills columns, he said it's better to lose an election and build a better republican party. >> than to lose 50 out of 50 states. >> than to elect a donald trump as the country's next president. what do we stand for? >> the george will perspective, which i guess my point is, as that perspective is a deeply minority perspective. and it has been remarkably -- given the fact this is someone
who has no lifelong affiliation with the republican party, who has no interest in many of its tenets. like frankly and obviously. who doesn't actually even seem to think very much about any of the issues one would think about in public politics. >> one thing we're going to find out is how many troops national radio has. >> how many divisions after the review. >> how many are tethered to those people. i don't think it's that many. i think it's a real crisis of intellectual confidence and political confidence right now. a lot of those people are putting the fight -- they're thinking in terms of after november. the battle is beginning right now of what happens after. >> that's why actually for those people. the most cataclysmic thing for trump is to win.
>> the stakes for the country which i think are quite high, i can talk to you about that. >> not to mention. if trump wins, the modern republican party as it existed before -- >> he's alienated every demographic group that's growing in this country either in aggregate numbers or voter turnout numbers like women. voter turnout gap between men and women has been growing every election. he's alienated aefrp single one of those groups. they're growing, they will continue to grow. and they will remember. >> that's why an interesting figure in all of this, i was reading a postmortem about ted cruz, he's in a really interesting position right now, about how he's going to position himself for 2020 and sort of after the fall narrative, a lot of that is going to come down to whether he does or does not publicly endorse him. which is going to be an interesting thing to watch. josh barrow, matt welsh, thanks for staying up with me tonight. that does it for me.