tv Election Night 2016 MSNBC November 8, 2016 7:00pm-8:01pm PST
will find a life of its own, the presidency is up for grabs. both mr. carville and mr. schmid. the american people have a funny way of making sure they get heard, and they are being heard tonight. the 10:00 hour is five seconds away. here we go. in gold, there they are. here are the closings. this hour, it is 10:00 p.m. in the state of iowa. our call for right now is too close to call. in the state of nevada, our call for this hour is too close to call. in the state of utah, and remember, favorite son in the race, three-way, too early to call. clinton, trump, macmullan. in the state of montana, the big sky state goes to donald trump.
so that red band, that red wall continues its trek west with the time zones. here's the electoral race. 140-104. here is the electoral, here are the too close to call states. florida, of the battlegrounds, pennsylvania, ohio, georgia. michigan. >> all of these too close to call. >> north carolina. 81% in. virginia. talked a lot about virginia this last hour. >> look how close. >> minnesota. 12% of the raw vote in. new hampshire. and maine. too early to call. here we go, arizona. 11 electoral votes. missouri. trump in the lead. too early to call.
wisconsin. colorado. and new mexico. let's pan down to the ice and bring up the map. blue and red on democracy plaza. here's your country so far. the states we've been able to call. as the time zones head from east to west. you can see the big states we are waiting for. >> utah's an interesting case study, it's its own case. stand alone politics. if evan mcmullin is able to win the state of utah. our call right now is that utah is too close to call. if he wins utah, that would be the first time a third-party candidate gets electoral votes.
since george wallace, 1968. if he can win that state, obviously, evan mcmullin is not going to win the presidency. but it's striking to see it as too close to call. >> it can also throw the race into chaos if neither get to 270. >> there's also two potential out of washington that is expected to go for clinton, but two bernie supporters have suggested that -- >> steve kornacki's at the board. >> starting to get returns from michigan. the trump campaign said we're going to put this on the map. what can we tell you? pretty early on the returns. couple things to point out. we talk about this college, non-college gap. there are two counties that tell this story.
first of all, this is oakland county, the quintessential college-educated, white voter county. afflue affluent. hillary clinton, you see, she's winning. she's winning it by eight points. this is basically the same margin barack obama got -- >> steve i have to interrupt you. we have a call. this projection. new mexico is going to hillary clinton. remember the hubbub when donald trump showed up in new mexico a few days before the election. everyone said what do they know? what do they know? both parties, what do they know? here's the electoral map, 140-109 with new mexico. that will give them a patch of blue to the west of texas. so there's your map. mr. kornacki, please continue. apologies. >> no problem.
we're talking about oakland county, this is the heart of the college-educated white voter, the big college-educated white voters. used to be republican county, now clinton wins by eight points. keep an eye next door at an another giant county, mccomb county. where that term you hear in politics, reagan democrat comes from. it went to reagan, swung back to the democrats. barack obama won it. these are blue collar, white voters. barack obama won this county four years ago. barack obama won this county eight years ago. democrats had all those stories about us struggling in mccomb county. they're a thing of the past. it's early here, he's leading by 20. this matches what polling showed in the run up to this election might happen in macomb county. if this holds, this is a major shift within the state of michigan. this is a big reason why his
campaign decided to target this state. if you are a democrat, you still have counties yet to come in. we can take a look at wayne, this is where detroit is. you'll end up seeing about 800,000 votes come out of here. this will probably end up going clinton's way in a big way, right next door is where the university of michigan s college town, very liberal. one thing we can point to, where did hillary clinton go when she went to michigan, right outside grand rapids. she delivered a speech about her friendships, willingness to work with republicans. she was trying to make inroads in republican republican michigan. this county four years ago, mitt romney got 56%. 63% for trump right now. >> steve kornacki, can i ask you one quick question? >> hang on, i got a projection. nbc news is projecting that when all the votes are counted, donald trump will be the winner in missouri. 10 electoral votes. another piece in the midwest and
another patch of red. the race to 270 looks like this. 150, 109. let's look at missouri on the map. >> steve kornacki, can i ask you one impressionistic question in terms of what you've been watching tonight? no, i can't. >> oh. i'm sorry. >> i was hiding behind the pillar. boo! as you have been watching these county by county results. as we've been looking at these dozen states now that are too close to call, roughly, are you seeing anything where the polling was flat wrong, where it was radically off in terms of what we are seeing tonight on election night? >> i don't know about radically. it looked like clinton was leading steadily in the polls in florida. it looked like she had a slight
advantage there. we knew florida four years ago was the closest state on the map, decided by less than a point. when you're looking at how close it is, it's not a radical difference, but i think the accumulation, it looked like hillary clinton had a small but steady lead. virginia, the fact that that is as close as it is is a surprise. i think there was an expectation, a pretty good expectation that virginia could even be a double digit win. there was that idea that it was tim kaine's home state and that democr demographically, they were dominating in the suburbs, around richmond, but again, there's that equally strong message by white voters in rural areas, they are coming in in big numbers. they're taking counties we knew
were red and making them redder tonight. >> chris matthews. >> when you look at michigan historically, it shouldn't be such a shock that it might go for trump, because there is a history of very conservative white voting in macomb county. george wallace won the 1972 primary. democrats, which includes a lot of african-american voters. so even with that shift, i mean, that minority roll, it is a conservative area. i think we make a mistake thinking the south's all south of here. i think that contiguous map is very powerful. i think we are increasingly a bicoastal, a country that sees itself as a bicoastal progressive part of the world and a very, not isolationist, but a conservative and white, if you will. and especially the prairie states. look at them up there. the plains states, they just go republican. a lot of this map could have been filled in a couple months
ago. the interesting thing is, the states that are falling tonight are the ones we've been wondering about for months. so we're pretty much where we were months ago. >> it's genuine. >> it's interesting. it's very cloying, very teasing. all we're getting is what we knew when we went in. the interesting races are the senate races as you point out, the indiana race. a blowout. a great name for a new cover. todd young running against a well-known evan bayh who was a well-known, popular name. he could have stayed there forever had he stayed there. >> exactly. they just decided he was past his sell-by date. >> you don't go away and come back home say i've been away. >> but tonight we don't know who's going to run the senate. as a friend of mine pointed out today, we had three branches of
government at stake tonight, late into the night we'll know that. the presidency. the united states senate. and the supreme court. all of them lie before the american people's tabulations tonight hopefully between 2:00 in the morning when we think it's time to take a nap at least. >> i love this, because i love exciting, close races. i hope this clarity, i hope there is a concession space eec the loser. i hope we have a country who says we have a fair race, as disturbing as it was, had a conclusion. >> the idea that michigan is not able to reach republicans is, michigan is always on the game plan on a traditional campaign, and george w. bush spent a lot of time. michigan is always available to you in the beginning, and depending on the concourse of the race, you have to make choices. it's like pennsylvania and new
jersey. you always put it on your wish list, because of the nature of the people who live there. they do have a lot of traditional values in common. so just again, is exactly what donald trump should have been doing if he had a traditional campaign all along. had he had a metric for touching these states and these voters every ten or 12 days. so if he wins, he will have done it despite. >> how do you put michigan and wisconsin on that. >> i literally was on a bus tour through both. i ate custard. as they call it. >> a living memory of how great it was. in pennsylvania, the steel city, western pennsylvania. places like that where the cities boomed, and every guy coming out of world war ii had a job. and detroit, motor city. >> city of of 2 million people.
>> we made the cars for the world, steel for the world . these people all remember it. and they want it back. >> and some talked about it in the primary run. >> back to you. >> exactly, that's what he said. that's what he promised. how you could deliver that, no one knows. but that was the promise. i do wonder, though, a more conventional donald trump running a more conventional campaign would have done as well as this donald trump running this campaign. >> we'll never know. >> we'll november knoever know. >> what do you think? >> no. he would have lost in the primary. he would have lost to donald trump. he, he hit a nerve at the right moment with this sort of unconventional is not the word for it, at times crazy approach to campaigning. >> he could have reined it in after being the nominee. >> fine tuning donald trump.
>> two pieces of business. we have a senate call in north carolina. burr is our projected victor in the senate race in north carolina. >> a tough, tough, tough race. >> i thought this would go later tonight. richard burr the projected winner. and over to steve kornacki for some new math out of florida. >> let's take a look at florida. we've been saying what's the gap hillary clinton has to overcome? it remains steady. look where we stand. hillary clinton about 136,000 votes. that's the window we've been in for a long time now, and frankly, she's running out of places on this map to find 136,000 votes. the big hope is the gold coast down here in the southeastern part of the state. i'll show you, though, there does not seem to be much vote left out in these places. broward, about 755,000 votes were cast go broward county four years ago, a high-turnout
election, 755, they've blown past that number. there are not a lot left i don't think. also palm beach county, 600,000 votes were cast. they've blown past that. miami dade county, an 875, you can see, they are well past that. there is big democratic turnout in these places and hillary clinton's getting the margins barack obama did, maybe even a little more, but there is enormous turnout in republican areas of this state as well. there also might be a little vote left in volusia county, the turnout is much higher. overall, statewide, turnout in florida, if you add these numbers together, you're over 9 million, sitting at 9.2, 9.3 million if you add them together. keep that in mind as i show you what the results were four years ago. you were sitting back when you
add all the third party candidates together, about 8.5 million in florida, so that is considerably higher turnout. democratic organization, democratic turnout, those big counties, a big story tonight. republican turnout is too. >> maria theresa kumar is here, i wanted to get your take on the florida numbers. steve just walked us through them. >> one of the things i would be looking at right now is how many of those republicans basically split their ticket. we know roughly 100,000 of them split their ticket for hillary clinton and went down ballot for marco rubio. so of those individuals left over, i'm curious to see how many people, and i would look specifically, be thinking about republican women that decided to vote for hillary and went down ballot. >> thank you very much. we're going to take a quick break. and when we come back, we will update all of the pending races, including the one you see there. north carolina, with 83% of the
voting. does that say something about attitude? >> he went home for a little bit, because he used the word atty-tude. >> you're giving me atty-tude. we are back. we have a major call coming out of the vote. we'll try to get it up there, and it is ohio. donald trump the projected winner in the state of ohio. 18 electoral votes. a hugely important piece of real estate where that comparison is concerned. 168-109 in the race to 270. here's where it looks like, this
is where it looks like as a color filling in the red alongside indiana, to the west of pennsylvania, down on through west virginia. kentucky, tennessee and so on. >> ohio and iowa have been the two traditional swing states that the clinton campaign felt like or the trump campaign felt were most within their grasp. iowa and ohio consistently have been polling in ways that are favorable to donald trump. obviously, ohio's the archetypal battleground, but i think everyone felt like it was leaning toward him. that's got to shake the clinton confidence even more than these other races already do. i want to point out north carolina. we are watching so intently right now. north carolina is one of these states that is too close to call and has been so for a very long time. even right now with 83% of the vote in, it is still too close to call, trump go the lead.
we were talking a little earlier on about the other two big-ticket races in north carolina. one of them, this senate race, richard burr trying to hang onto his seat against deborah ross. burr is now the projected winner. he will hold onto that seat. the other big-ticket item in north carolina is the governor's race. it's been fascinating to watch these governor's numbers come in. right now, again, with 84% of the vote up, it is too early to call, too early to call in north carolina. but you see these guys deadlocked, 49-49. so if you're looking for advice as to how north carolina's going to go in the presidential, that senate race may make you think donald trump's going do pull it out, the governor's race gives us no information. the >> still, you have to winn ohio as a republican. it does put him on the edge of possibly winning the election,
but we are going to see a pattern which is traditional. look at the country, it's basically divided 50/50. winning ohio, losing pennsylvania makes sense. >> i will say about this ohio call that this is something that the clinton campaign was prepared for. when they were setting out their map and said we have all these more paths than the trump campaign. it included losing ohio and iowa. so this news should be tempered just a little bit. i think the question is still, their path, don't forget we haven't even started talking about colorado. and there were late questions about colorado and what the movements were going to be. their path is virginia, colorado, and it's through the south. >> all right. speaking of colorado. let's do some of these senate races. because the first one on our race, we've been trying to fall back and catch up with these nat races is michael bennett. returning from colorado.
there will be >> democratic incumbent. >> inevitable talk about michael bennet joining the leadership i think in the years to come. a very popular figure. and more about colorado as the state after this. the leader ever the democrats, projected, predicted, people guess, it's going to be led by chuck schumer of new york who had an easy time returning to the senate. we're just going to go through these. jerry moran in kansas. john hoeben, north dakota. john thune going back to the senate for south dakota. he has an interesting history with donald trump. john boozman, arkansas a.
t in iowa, chuck grassley going back, and mike lee, the popular republican from utah going back. here's senate again. democrats with one net gain, but this is early. >> yeah. the senate races that are outstanding right now are a bunch of fascinating ones. in missouri, i believe our characteristic was roy blunt trying to return. i believe our characterization is that is too early to call. in missouri we do have a presidential call. that missouri has gone to donald trump at the presidential level, but this senate race still too early to call. also in terms of too close to call senate races, big names. pat toomey in pennsylvania, that's too close to call. in new hampshire, the kelly ayotte race, that is too close to call. and in nevada, we've got joe
heck, the republican up against kathryn cortez masto. >> we have a, excuse me, we have a major projection. in the state of virginia, the commonwealth of virginia, the projected winner is hillary clinton. >> kasey hunt? >> the campaign is breathing a sigh of relief. >> a sure sigh of relief. >> forgive me for using a house phrase. but barbara comstock, a representative from northern virginia, i'm told her internal polling had her tied. and at the end of the day, see won or she looks like she's on track to win by almost 10 points, with 90% of the vote in. so we have been talking about what may have gone wrong here. and even if hillary clinton comes out on top here, it's very clear there was something going on in this polling. i think that's a pretty sharp example in an area -- >> just checking that race you're talking about. virginia 10, barbara comstock
seen as a bellwether race. looks like the margin is eight points in her favor. everybody thought it was going to be a squeaker. >> when it comes to doris comstock. >> the newspaper endorsements are not the focus. >> pulitzer prizewinning. >> look at all the newspapers that endorsed donald trump. >> we're still waiting for reports on florida. florida is going to be huge. one of the republican incumbents in the house who thought was going to be endangered was carlos corbello. in district 26, he has also won his seat tonight. he will be returning to congress. so we're looking for these signs in terms of these too close to call races and seeing them mix up a little bit.
>> my two-word prediction with what went wrong was yard signs. no one counted the yard signs. if you see those matching glasses and mustaches, that means it's a pollster. steve kornacki with the route to 270, which really becomes the story. there are two specific routes, two specific campaigns at this hour. >> the we everybody's asking, seeing the results come in, can donald trump win the presidency tonight. let me take you through what it would take. things are going his way. we just showed you ohio. hillary clinton was just called the winner in virginia. we can add that to her column. some of these lighter colors haven't been called yet. so the purposes of this exercise, we're going to expect trump to win in idaho, keeping that in mind, what at this point would it take for donald trump to get to 270. count with me, start in new hampshire, a too close to call
race there. let's say he wins new hampshire. take a look in maine, the first congress at district, portland, democratic. let's say he wins a district in maine. you get an electoral vote for a district. this is very rural, he's got a shot there. take a look at pennsylvania. the let's say she holds pennsylvania. do we have something here? red, excuse me, should be red. hillary clinton, i'm doing this "on the fly." hillary clinton gets pennsylvania. let's say trump gets north carolina. in georgia, let's say trump gets florida, where he's leading right now, look where he's starting to get to. let's say hillary clinton holds the upper midwest, minnesota, let's say he gets iowa. we'll give her michigan. give that to her. let's say donald trump gets the one district in nebraska. let's say trump gets arizona, and look where he is, 268. and at that point, if he were to
get nevada, he'd be over 270. if he were to lose nevada, there were bad early signs for him there, if he could win michigan, it 284. and winning michigan at 284, he could absorb a loss perhaps, if he were to lose arizona. still over 270. it's very theoretical at this point. he needs some of these states to be called for him, but there are paths to 270 that are opening up for donald trump as we speak. >> who else wants to talk to john ralston? >> our bud edy john ralston. >> he said it was over. >> he said it was over based on the early vote. the. >> he was difficult entivefinit. >> florida continues to be fascinating, but we don't have calls in georgia, pennsylvania, michigan maine. a lot of these states we thought
we would know by now. right now, that michigan number that steve kornacki was talking about. we've got the less than a third of the vote in, in michigan so far, and that race too close to call. >> lawrence o'donnell, i have a question for james carville, does he agree michigan ought to be renamed michigan, michigan, michigan? >> how did you know what we were talking about. i think we might have an agreement on the table about just how important michigan is. james carville. >> look, if the democrats lose michigan, you're looking, i think this puppy's over. stand by, because michigan is going to be really critical. it was good if we held virginia, but we were supposed to hold virginia. the it was ju it was just sort of necessary. florida looks less than encouraging.
>> michigan. >> michigan and the president of the united states. >> florida, where do you think we are right now? >> it's very ominous for hillary. i don't think she's going to be able to make up the ground in florida. it doesn't seem there's enough outstanding vote share for her to come back. what we've seen is a surge of republican red votes, and you see that early call on ohio, though the clinton campaign was expecting it, that pour tends ominously for michigan. culturally, there's an alignment of these voters. and you're seeing them perform, i think, at a consistent level across all of these states, which is vastly exceeding expectations. donald trump doesn't have a traditional ground game. the this is an organic surge of support that wasn't anticipated
and seen across the board in the model the and the polling. >> you've been on the phone to florida? are you ruling out florida? >> it doesn't do any good to spin it, it's close. looking at the map and looking what's out, i just don't see that many votes in broward. i think you're close to 955,000 people voting, they're going to blowmargins, but you're still getting a third. margin's only 30. it seems to me to be very difficult. i would love to be wrong. i would love to eat crow later tonight and say she did carry florida. i'm with steve. the quickness of the ohio call was disturbing, not so much that we lost ohio. that was always a real possibility, but that it came so quick. >> the first brink you felt yourself on tonight was virginia. that was the first one where you
said, if hillary clinton doesn't win virginia, it's lost. now we've moved michigan's the next stop on the must-win. >> we saw it going into tonight. he had to do this. he had to do that. it is now, the democrats have to, they don't have, the margin, the path here is getting to be very narrow. i'm not saying it's impossible. i'm not saying that it can't be done. i'm just saying as the night goes on the path narrows, and it's narrow on steve's map. it's pretty clear that michigan is absolutely critical. >> steve, who do you see with the favored map at this point? >> i think it's a 50/50 proposition other than to say this, that donald trump had to drop a bunch of these states tonight. had to win. and every state that he's had to win he's dropped. he's dropped it into his column tonight. so he had a tight, narrow path. not a pull an inside straight, he's on his way to pulling it.
we'll see in michigan. but you look at these numbers in michigan and the cultural similarities between michigan and ohio. you know, i think at this hour you certainly can't say that, you know, she has an easy ride in the state of michigan. >> brian, tonight, it's michigan, michigan, michigan at this table. >> lawrence, and our specialists, our insiders, thank you. we have another projection, just as we were going to sneak away to a break. we have another projection. that is in the state of colorado, when all the votes are counted, hillary clinton will pick up nine electoral votes there, as we look at the race to 270, here's the bar chart, 168-131. let's see what this looks like in blue and red. it certainly starts a vertical for the democrats out west. they have a known vertical in california, along the pacific
ocean. but chris matthews, listening to our colleagues in the other studio, interesting. >> you know, there's no other word for it. this is a surprise. you know, i've been looking at these maps going to when they started making them, and it's beginning to look like a familiar map. it's beginning to look like a map we've gotten used to. and colorado is more liberal than most of the west. new mexico is more hispanic. we're going to see that logic continue. i think the patterns that we're looking at, northern virginia is holding strong for hillary clinton, not as strong as they thought, but it's going to be there. the suburbs of philadelphia, pennsylvania's strongly going to go for hillary clinton. and the fascinating thing, michigan, which was picked up on the radar screen of the trump people about two weeks ago, for people who don't have all the mechanism the and apparatus of politics, they had good ears. >> and an airplane. >> and think picked up. you know we better get out there and spend some time out there as an option to pennsylvania. think talked pennsylvania for
months. wait a minute, you can't do that. now we're going to go up this other route. it's almost like the civil war, general lie lo general lee to go up. and i think the fact that utah, evan mcmullin can screw the whole thing up, 2:00, 3:00 in the morning with this zion vote. and appealing to, it could screw the whole thing up. is the rickety system working and producing a president. we haven't had this problem since back when those untied lectors wele electors in the '60s. you know, pundits can only go so far. it's based on history. it's based on history. we don't have a history on tonight. >> there's nothing in the
logbook. >> not just pun diltry, but the numbers. >> we're not all that far off. there haven there hasn't been a shocker. the overall race being this close is a shocker. hillary clinton winning virginia is not crazy. we still don't know about north carolina and florida. we haven't seen a race end up in a place that's radically different than the polls say it will end up. >> margin of error. >> it would have been early in the evening. on the other hand, we thought georgia would be early in the evening. >> can you make your point again? >> i just think that we should have seen this coming, because the primary was so, we were so surprised. no one thought donald trump would get this far. kate e katy tur has been saying this over and over. when i was out with hillary clinton in the last week of the
campaign, the not, not this past weekend, the past weekend was a little bit different, but we were going from smallish staged event to smallish staged event. and at the time i thought this does not feel like covering a winning campaign in the final week. i took some criticism for that, from some sources. and this weekend felt like a winning campaign, the president, you all saw the rally on independence mall, but day to day, you drive to the events, you drive past fields of donald trump signs. >> speaking in terms of that philadelphia event, one of the things that i'd noticed covering that live last night is although that was an inincredibly intense event in terms of the visuals and michelle obama and barack obama and all, when hillary clinton gave her remarks, she was serious. she was almost tense, she did not at all seem psyched to be looking at that huge number of people, there was not relief. you could see it. i'm not a body language person
in terms of dealing with candidates, but it was different from what i expected from her, and actually the enthusiasm of the president, to be work a day and almost terse. >> i think the clinton campaign can end up very, very happy that they decide the to do that eventual in philadelphia, right, because it just seems like it may shore up pennsylvania, which they may need. >> i'm walking into 30 rock. a short and fat guy yelled at me and i go back at him with something inappropriate. which i do. a real pal. he was ginned up by the obama, the trump thing. and it's been going on, this anti-media. could it be when people are polled by pollsters, they see as the media. >> which has been proffered. >> they don't give an answer that's straight. they hang up on the person, they think we're part of that world. and this anti-media campaign of
trump's has been vicious and the party of every rally. every rally. it's been that way against katy tur. >> i have been to rallies. very quickly to your point, i do think clinton is very much a workman-like candidate. and watching her follow the president is very striking for that reason. i do think that they were flying around this weekend convinced that they were going to win. they were celebrating in the air. >> i concur that was their body language. >> i wanted to show you this graphic. 56% of the national vote is in. that's the difference -- >> popular vote. >> that between them. also on rachel's side, the blue graphic down there that doesn't look like the lek shelection gr, that's real, the dow jones futures. we have watched it fall through the 300, 400.
clinton headquarters on the left. that's the jabot convention center. the much more modest space, the ballroom inside the venerable new york hilton on sixth avenue in midtown manhattan, a building visible from our area here and surrounded as are all the locations with new york city sanitation dump trucks fill the with sand. they have decided to use those as an impenetrable barrier. trump tower tonight is surrounded by dump trucks. >> i will also shout out to nypd for the number of officers they
have out. the last time we will two election night parties for the two major candidates in new york city was 1944. and in a race tonight that has already had a lot of misbehavior by fans on both sides, a shout out to them for how much overtime they're working. >> the next president of the united states is in new york city tonight. in michigan tonight, they have a barnburner. kevin tibbles is live in grand rapids. hey, kevin, what do you have there? >> i guess you could describe it as a barnburner. i'm actually in a pizza joint in grand rapids, which of course is gerald ford country, but, are you surprised what is going on? >> i am, and i love it! >> why? >> because michigan is in play, and we are taking back our country. >> i'm going to come back to you
over here, but about 4 5 minute to an hour ago people were enjoying their evening, but when they started seeing the numbers coming from in ohio and here. they've only got 20% of the votes counted, but it is leaning in that direction. what does that mean, take our country back? >> it means ending corruption. it means loving our country. it means bringing back freedom and liberty to america and bringing back all the things that we believe in in our country. >> is there some kind of a -- [cheers and applause] >> as you can tell, it's a loud, raucous place. is there some kind of a message that you're trying to be singing to some establishment out there? >> no, it's just, it's just being fiscally responsible, take being care of america, ending corruption, draining the swamp. >> and, as a woman, i have to ask you this question. you voted for donald trump.
>> yes. >> why? >> because donald trump going to change america and bring back integrity and bring back america to what we need to be. where we need to be. >> what we have seen is some sort of a change. seems to be taking place in michigan tonight. and brian, i'm sure i'll be talking to you as soon as that change, however way it goes, happens. >> in the meantime, you're in the right place. stay surrounded by people, pizza and the beverage of your choice. kevin tibbles in jerry ford's home congressional district. >> we heard carville and steve sch schmidt earlier. with 45% of the vote in, it's really tight, 48-47. we're keeping a very, very, very
close eye on pennsylvania. a little less than two-thirds of the vote in, 65% of the vote in, in pennsylvania. hillary clinton does have a lead right now in pennsylvania. we also want to look at the other race that's outstanding right now in pennsylvania, which is the senate race in pennsylvania. this has been a really interesting one to watch thus far. pat toomey is the republican incumbent, very cagey about his support for donald trump or lack thereof. he waited until just over an hour closed in pennsylvania before he voted so he wouldn't have to admit publicly that he voted for trump. it's too close to call in pennsylvania. you see that small lead on behalf of the democratic challenger, kate eie mcginty wa chief of staff for wolf. this is too close to call. steve kornacki's keeping a very close eye on pennsylvania. >> clinton is leading in pennsylvania. the votes that have been
counted. the gaff donald trump is trying to make up at this point is 116,000 votes. is it possible for him to get that, let's take a look at the big places that are in and what's left for the democrats. they have squeezed pretty much what they are going to squeeze-out of philadelphia. they had the big rally there. now the target number here, the dream number for democrats here, would have been something approaching 490 to 500,000 in terms of the margin. that's what obama got, 492. you see right now, clinton's lead is sitting there closer to 400,000. they still feel they can win the state at 400,000, but it gets dicier at that point. the suburbs of philadelphia, we talked so much about college-educated white voters, suburbs of philadelphia, it's going to be big for hillary clinton. she's leading in them. but let me take you through it. look at the margin in bucks, 49-47. that's pretty much unchanged from what we saw four years ago. there's a slight shift in montgomery county. i think this was closer to 17
points four years ago. can you see in chester, this one was a little closer. there's been movement here, but this is not overall, this is what, this is not overall that dramatic a shift. pittsburgh yet to come in. york county running up the score. a vote that's still going to come in, in butler county. there are still some red areas to come in, clinton leading. >> steve kornacki, did you have a -- >> clinton's leading. i look at those county results. they're still talking about getti getting, that's a hell of a majority. there's a tradition. but as steve points out, the huge difference, the suburbs used to be moderate republican. they were new york herald tribune republicans.
they don't exist anymore. the whole idea of a moderate republican from the northeast, like bill scranton, nelson rockefeller, christine -- >> todd whitman? >> there was this long pattern of well-to-do, in many cases, republican moderates in that part of the country, and they're gone. and that's why the burbs are gone. >> our last break before the top of the hour. polls closing. if anything happens, we'll break out.
just under four minutes till the next poll closing at 11:00 eastern, top of the hour, we'll have poll closings in california, oregon, washington, idaho and hawaii. at this point, this is the part of the race where everybody who looks back at having covered previous presidential races say ooh, yeah, by the time we call
hawaii, it's not like we didn't know what's going to be happening, we have no idea what's going to be happening. right now at this point of all the swing states that you could possibly be watching, the only ones that are decided are virginia for hillary clinton, colorado for hillary clinton, new mexico for hillary clinton. donald trump winning ohio. those are the projections in terms of nbc news. in terms of outstanding states, we're still waiting on georgia, new hampshire. florida, pennsylvania michigan and nevada. >> i chalked to the chairman of the democratic city committee. they're still expecting to get between 420,000, 450,000. they're still meeting their quota. where there has been a flattening out of expectations is the suburbs. it's history. but the fact that she's done it,
not so well, is the surprise and the question mark for the state. my, my surmise is is they're still going to carry the state, but not dramatically. >> we're also looking at michigan. michigan appears to be very, very tight. a little less than half of the vote in, trump appears to be in the lead, 49-46. but that's with less than half of the vote in. steve kornacki, do you have any intel on michigan. >> the margin here for donald trump sitting, about 57,000 votes. that's what hillary clinton's got to make up. obviously, the best thing for democrats here, if you're a democrat and you're looking in wayne county, this is where detroit is, this is where they cast some 800,000 votes four years ago. we had numbers that showed a much closer race. the suburban parts of wayne county reported first. the city may be the heart of what's to come in. hillary clinton, you can expect
she'll get a lot of votes out of wayne. this is where ann arbor, university of michigan is. if you're donald trump, though, macomb county, produced a total of 400,000 votes four years ago, a lot of votes to come in in macomb, a big reversal. this was a many diddic couns id county in 2008 and 2012. this is a shift in favor of the republicans. we talked about these characteristics. saginaw, trump leading in michigan. >> looking tight as everybody is right now. there are a lot of states still outstanding, but we are starting to key in on the ones that are essentially forks in the road for these paths that either of the candidates may have. at this point, each candidate has a path that's more like a deer track through light brush. neither of them has a yellow
brick road you can see from space. these are pretty narrow paths that each of them are going to be following. that's why individual states like michigan are who we're watching. >> channeling it three times -- michigan, michigan, michigan -- given its importance tonight. here we go up the side of the building. in the golden state, in california, the projected winner is hillary clinton. note the electoral votes, 55. in the state of washington, hillary clinton the projected winner. in the state of oregon in the pacific northwest, hillary clinton, the projected winner. in the state of hawaii, four electoral votes, hillary clinton, the projected winner. in idaho, interesting race, as we've been saying, donald trump, the predicted winner, four elecl