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tv   The 11th Hour With Brian Williams  MSNBC  July 6, 2018 8:00pm-9:00pm PDT

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president george h.w. bush gets tonight's last word. president trump has faced some tough weeks. next week could be the toughest yet for the president. the easy part is announcing a new supreme court justice. that's ahead in "the 11th hour with brian williams." and that starts now. president, the president's critical week ahead. a prime time supreme court announcement. talks on the world stage. and a summit he says he's been preparing for his whole life. all this as his attorney reportedly sets new ground rules for a sit-down with robert mueller. plus where are the children? the trump administration requests more time to reunite families pulled apart by its policies. new reporting on the number of migrant parents the government can't find. and elton john diplomacy. the secretary of state's search for aspects on denuclearizing north korea. "the 11th hour" on friday night begins now. good evening once again from
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our nbc news headquarters here in new york. i'm steve kornacki in for brian williams. he'll be back on monday night. day 533 here of the trump administration. and the pressure is on. the president is facing a complicated week ahead with high stakes at home and abroad. it's all still taking place beneath the cloud of the russia investigation. there is brand-new reporting tonight about negotiations for a face-to-face interview between president trump and robert mueller. "the new york times" says the chances that the president would be voluntarily questioned were growing ceincreasingly unlikely. the article goes on to say that the special counsel needs to
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pro prove, before mr. trump would agree to an interview, that his testimony is essential to completing the investigation. tonight it appears the president and his legal team are taking an even more aggressive stance regarding the russia investigation. meantime president trump now just three days away from announcing a decision that could well define his legacy. he is about to reveal his pick to fill that vacancy on the supreme court. >> if you tune in monday at 9:00, i think you're going to be extremely happy. right? and they're all great. they're all great. >> a source familiar with the selection process tells nbc news the president is most focused on these candidates. brett kavanaugh, amy coney barrett, and ray kethledge. there are reports that kavanaugh may have the inside track. the president will be flying to europe on wednesday for an annual meeting with the united
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states' nato allies. president trump has criticizing nato countries for not boosting their defense spending. >> i'll tell nato you have to start paying your bills. the united states is not going to take care of everything. we have $151 billion in trade deficits with the eu. and on autopsy top of that, thes with nato. they want us to protect them against russia yet they pay billions of dollars to russia and we're the schmucks who pay for the whole thing. $30 billion is projected to be paid by those nato nations. but it's not enough. >> a former nato commander says remarks like that raise concerns about the president's willingness to stand with america's allies. >> what nato is looking for is a strong sense that president trump is actually committed to strengthening the nato alliance. it's really upsetting to our allies that he seems to refer meetings with xi jinping or
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putin or kim jong-un to meeting with longtime historic friends of the united states. >> this coming week will also include preparations for the upcoming meeting between trump and vladimir putin, even though president trump insists he's more than ready. >> putin's fine. he's fine. we're all fine. we're people. will i be prepared? totally prepared. i've been preparing for this stuff my whole life. >> the president will also have time next week to nurture the special relationship between the u.s. and the uk. he'll be meeting with both prime minister theresa may and queen elizabeth during his four-day visit. he's expected to limit his time in london where several protests are scheduled during his visit. then there is that continuing drama that is the trump white house. today was ex-epa administrator scott pruitt's last day. there is the ongoing speculation also about the future of the white house chief of staff. the president has a brand-new communications director as well, former fox news chief bill
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shine. congress will be heading back to work as well next week. the senate returns on monday, the house on tuesday. that's likely to bring increased scrutiny to one of the president's most vocal allies, ohio congressman jim jordan, a powerful member of the house freedom caucus. at least four university wrestlers allege that jordan knew about sexual abuse by a team doctor back when he was an assistant coach at the school. jordan's accusers say he did nothing about it. tonight the congressman was asked about those allegations. >> i never saw, never heard of, never was told about any type of abuse. if he had been, i would have dealt with it. what bothers me the most is the guys that are saying this thing, i know they know the truth. what has been said about me is completely false. >> the president is standing by jordan, telling reporters on air force one last night, quote, i don't believe them at all. i believe him. jim jordan is one of the most outstanding people i've met since i've been in washington. i believe him 100%.
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no question in my mind. i will be jim jordan 100%. he's an outstanding man. plenty to talk about. let's bring in our lead-off panel for a friday night. jonathan allen, nbc news national political reporter. ken thomas, white house reporter for the associated press. and barbara mcquaid, former u.s. attorney for the eastern district of michigan, now an msnbc legal analyst. thanks to all of you for being with us. barbara, let me start with you, on this news that rudy giuliani, the president's lawyer, is making tonight. narrowing, it sounds like, the potential conditions under which the president might agree to an interview with robert mueller, saying essentially that mueller has to have proof the president committed crimes and that his testimony would be essential to the investigation. is this rudy giuliani essentially saying this isn't going to happen? >> it seems like he is. every time it seems that a deadline comes and goes, they move the goalposts farther down the field. it seems this is yet another stall tactic.
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these are conditions that are not legally required. rudy giuliani is trying to put in place some terms that robert mueller can agree to. but i don't see why robert mueller would agree to show his whole entire hand to giuliani just to get president trump to sit down with him for an interview. no doubt he wants to talk to him. his other option is to serve a subpoena on him. that brings with it the potential the litigation and some really contentious arguments about those issues. i'm sure he would rather secure his testimony through a voluntary sit-down. at some point i think robert mueller will have to move on, either issue the subpoena or issue his report without the testimony. >> when does that moment arrive? do we have any sense? because rudy giuliani had previously set a deadline of july 4th this week for a decision. now, no decision, just some new terms. do we know at what point mueller has to make that -- either do the subpoena or move on without him decision that you talk about? >> there's really no specific
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deadline to it. i imagine that this piece of it that he wants to talk to president trump about relates likely to the obstruction of justice investigation he's done, which is a very finite investigation. there's only a handful of people who would be involved in talking about that. only a handful of documents necessarily reviewed. my guess is that piece of the investigation is probably done except for this piece. now, the larger russia investigation seems like there's still more work to be done there. i suppose until that piece of the investigation is done, there's no urgency in getting the obstruction piece done. but at some point if everything else is done, robert mueller will have to make a decision on how he wants to proceed to end the investigation. it can't simply go on forever. but it does seem that rudy giuliani is doing his best to delay if not forever that occurrence. >> that is the legal front. ken thomas, as we head into this weekend, the political question, one of the big political questions around the president is who is he going to pick to
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replace anthony kennedy on the supreme court, who will he nominate. we mentioned those names, kavanaugh, barrett, kethledge. is the sense that the president has made his mind up or is this still a live process? >> as far as we know, it's a live process. there's been a lot of bouncing back and forth this week, focusing on either cavanaugh or kethledge. cavanaugh had some issues earlier in the week. there were some concerns raised by some republican senators, most notably rand paul, about some of the decisions and views that cavanaugh had expressed. my sense is that the white house feels like that's under control now and the president can make a decision on a level playing field and feel confident that whomever he picks, he can get the nominee through the senate. but i think right now you most likely are looking at either a
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kavanaugh pick who has the washington ties, or ray kethledge who some people will refer to as a gorsuch 2.0, someone with a solid conservative track record and has picked up some support in conservative circles. >> jon allen, we didn't hear the name amy coney barrett, democrats have zeroed in on her, there is this issue with olympia snowe saying roe v. wade is a bottom line issue where she doesn't necessarily commit to vote for trump's pick here. is there a sense that amy coney barrett on that issue of roe v. wade has fallen back in this process? >> certainly possible, steve. i think there's a significant amount of support for her among those who would like to see a woman on the court who might be in the position of overturning roe and sending it back to the
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states. congress then might act federally to ban abortion beyond that if that were to happen. barrett appears to be alive in this process. somebody who certainly has her supporters. i think there are a lot of people who felt like she had a good narrative coming out of her last set of hearings where senator dianne feinstein went after her and basically said she wears her religion on her sleeve. if they want that kind of a fight, she's good person to be picked. from the standpoint of whether conservatives will be happy with these picks, i think they'll be happy with all of them but i think the president needs to get enough of them on board to offset any democratic dene nexfs or to work in concert with democratic defections. >> i was removing my foot from my mouth because i think i said olympia snowe who has of course been out of the senate for six years. i meant to say susan collins.
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at least i didn't say margaret chase smith. >> you're not the first to make that mistake, steve. >> hopefully it's not -- it's the last time i do. the controversy around fox news over sexual harassment claims and bill shine's role in handling those, what is his role going to be in this white house? and was that issue with fox news and the sexual harassment complaints there, did that -- it clearly didn't dissuade the white house, but does it concern them at all? >> there's not a lot of evidence that it was a really big issue as they brought in bill shine. he was someone who we expected to join the administration for a while. his name has circulated for months as someone who was likely to come in. he's very close to sean hannity, who is obviously very close to the president. they speak frequently.
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so we expected him to come in. he is supposed to take in a larger role overseeing the communications shop. it's something that the president has been unhappy with at times and often feels like he's really the only dependable spokesman for this administration. so look to see shine come in and this could coincide with john kelly leaving. there's some speculation as we get towards the end of the month, we'll be reaching the one-year mark of john kelly's time. and we have this very intense period we're in right now with a supreme court pick. we have the trip next week to europe, and then the big summit with vladimir putin. and that could be viewed as a time in which john kelly could then transition out of the chief of staff position, as someone like a bill shine comes in. >> jon, we mentioned that story about jim jordan, house freedom caucus, one of trump's most stalwart allies when it comes to his complaints against the
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justice department, the russia investigation. you have all of these accusers now stepping forward from ohio state, former wrestlers when he was an assistant coach out there, saying they had talked to him about this team doctor and his potential abuse there. the president is standing by him. what is the attitude on capitol hill about jordan and what this may or may not do for him in terms of his standing there? >> i think there's a lot of concern. you know, i think there's worry among house republicans certainly about supporting him too much. this is not the first time a former wrestling coach has been accused of either turning a blind eye or in the case of former speaker dennis hastert, there was a page program scandal even before he had his later issues with inappropriate behavior with young wrestlers. obviously jordan does not have that, about turning a blind eye
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is something that's hurt republicans in the past when it comes to abuse allegations on capitol hill. i think there's a reluctance to get out too far in front of this in the way that the president just did, saying he's behind jordan 100%, he believes him 100%. speaker paul ryan has taken a more wait and see kind of attitude about it. >> and barbara, i wanted to ask you about this because this caught my eye today, news that we've got about paul manafort who of course is being held right now, apparently in solitary confinement. and i'm a layman with this stuff. is that an unusual move for somebody in his position? what would the reason be for that? >> so as i understand it, he's in solitary confinement for his own safety. and you do see this from time to time. it is not to punish him but it is to protect him. it's an administrative reason. and sometimes when you have people who are in jail or in prison who are public officials or high profile individuals or police officers, the concern is that the general population might harm him, somebody might
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want to be a hero and beat him up and make a headline. for his own safety, he's being held in solitary confinement. that's certainly an unpleasant scenario, but if it's for his own safety, that may be where he serves best. he says that is causing some challenges in his ability to prepare for trial. but i know the government has responded that the judge in the case has ordered that the jail make his access to his lawyers reasonably available. so one hopes that despite the fact that he's not with a cellmate or members of the prison population, he does have the opportunity to prepare for his trial. >> barbara mcquaid, ken thomas, jon allen, thanks for being with us this friday night. coming up, the federal government says it needs more time to reunite the families it pulled apart at the border. and imposing new tariffs on american products from pork to electric cars. beijing retaliates to new u.s. taxes on chinese products. "the 11th hour" is just getting started on a friday night.
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a federal judge in san diego says the trump administration has until tomorrow afternoon to produce a list of the names of 10 young might 1 young childrenn migrant detention centers, kids under 5 years old taken from their parents at the border. the trump administration asked the judge to extend the deadline to reunite the nearly 3,000 children who were separated from their parents.
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the court-mandated deadline applies to those young kids who were supposed to be reunited by tuesday. nbc news national security and justice reporter julia ainsley, who joins us in a moment, reports that government lawyers said health and human services would only be able to reunify half of approximately 100 children under the age of 5 by july 10th. we're learning in some cases reunification may not be possible at all. quote, for 19 children their whereabouts are unknown. another 19 children's parents are deported. joining us are julia ainsley. julia, let me start with you. the trump administration says it needs more time here. what is the argument they're making? >> the argument, steve, is that the class is bigger than they thought. they thought they were dealing with 2,000 children who had been
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separated from their parents. then they're saying that the class that the judge gave them actually dates back to before this policy even came into account, it's about 3,000 children. and they also say that a lot of these parents are hard to find. in the case of the 100 children they're supposed to reunite by tuesday, they say about half of them are able to be relocated with parents who are in i.c.e. detention, but others have been deported, others have been released into the united states, and they don't know where they are. an aclu lawyer brought up a really good point on the call and said, why would these parents have been released and not tracked if that's the whole point of a stringent immigration policy in the first place, to keep track of who is coming into this country and barricade the borders? i thought that was an excellent point. what they're getting at is it's very difficult to find any systematic way to bring these parents and children together, which goes against what we were told just a few weeks ago by the
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hhs secretary before the senate when he said that r reunioficat was as simple as a keystroke. >> will the trump administration getting the time it's looking for here? >> i don't specifically cover immigration policy in depth but one thing i haven't seen reported is what is the penalty for missing that deadline if more time is not extended or if a new deadline is made and that is not met. i think it is really interesting to think about, it is not one center where people came in, children are being held, and then parents left from there. we're talking about a number of different states, people from all different countries, of all different types of status. you know, some people are going back to violent places. some people, as julia rightly pointed out, are going back into the united states. in addition to that, we know that some of this audit of vetting parents is actually being done by hand, going back through case files, literally
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reading them and trying to understand what happened with each particular case and was, you know, a child separated from their parent. so that's a whole lot of information to keep track of. they keep releasing these numbers, but i'm not necessarily confident that they're very precise. it's just in general government can be imappraisipreciseimpreci the immigration system is slow and records are not accurate. >> julia, this all points back to, when separations occurred, no one was taking notes, keeping records. >> that's right. it seems like that would have been the first part of any policy that would separate parents from their children, would be to figure out who is going into hhs custody, where, and where are the parents going into the custody of u.s. marshals, or i.c.e., that they would have been been able to keep in better contact. one thing i would say on the deadline, the judge made clear today, it does look like he may extend the deadline at least for those 100 children under 5, because he understands there are
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extenuating circumstances. but he does not want to let the government off the hook in terms of eventual reunification of everyone in this class. the government even asked the judge, does that mean parents who have been deported? they said it was onerous and extreme for them to have to go back into these countries where the parents have been deported and find them. he said absolutely, they are included, if you deported them, you need to find them. so i thought that was really important today. and i think what the judge doesn't want is for the government to completely appeal his decision and to say that they shouldn't have to reunify. he wants reunification and he seems fairly amenable to extending deadlines under realistic terms if he finds that the government is in good faith making every effort to reunify the parents with their children. >> there is a political context, another new poll, this from "the washington post," this is what we've been seeing in just about every poll, that family
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separation policy extremely unpopular. it kind of extends across the board, 69%/29%. the politics are there, you can't look those numbers and see anything positive for the administration. but the case the administration's supporters make is that the democratic reaction to this story the last few weeks has given republicans an opening, specifically the voices you heard calling -- some prominent democrats calling for the abolition of i.c.e. the vice president, mike pence, went to i.c.e. headquarters today. >> the truth is the calls to abolish i.c.e. are not just outrageous, they're irresponsible. abolishing i.c.e. would mean more illegal immigration, people being able to come into our country. i want to make it clear to all of you and all of those looking on. under president donald trump, we will never abolish i.c.e. >> christina, what's your sense of that? there is a school of thought,
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hey, look, there's something uniquely visceral, emotional about the issue of child separation. that's the only thing most voters take from the last few weeks, the case you get from some administration supporters would be, hey, the democratic reaction to this is going to be just as relevant too in the election. >> yeah, i mean, this is one of the problems when you boil things down to talking points, right? if you have a reasonable conversation with someone that opposes the family separation policy, they're more than likely going to say yes, there should be some regulations and rules when it comes to immigration policy or at least an establishment that you might even call a government agency that regulates it. the "abolish i.c.e." phrase is easy to put on a sign but in practice doesn't make a lot of sense. it's not that different, conservatives have on their sides, get rid of the department of education, get rid of the epa. at length numerous government inten entities have been targeted on both sides of the aisle. the bigger picture here is the
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elections. here in california, incumbents are not necessarily the most president trump type republicans but they're being tied to his policies and democrats will attempt to do that particularly in places like orange county, where there are a lot of changing demographics. los angeles county is fairly democratic but there's one congressional race where there is a republican, congressman steve knight, he has actually been sort of more on the moderate side when it comes to immigration policy in this debate in congress. so this is an issue that i believe will definitely be a factor in what drives people to the polls in november. >> no, absolutely. california, those congressional districts will be a big part of the story on election night in november. maybe they'll have the primary votes counted by november. it takes them a while. >> or maybe next week, here's hoping. >> only about a month after the original vote. thanks to both of you for being with us on a friday night. ahead, the secretary of state has a second day of talks after spending hours meeting
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denuclearization. "the wall street journal" reports tonight, quote, mr. pompeo's team wants a list of all of north korea's nuclear assets, a schedule for dismantling the arsenal, and an agreement on how to verify that pyongyang is keeping its promises. pompeo's visit comes just days after nbc news first reported that u.s. intelligence officials believe that north korea has increased production of fuel for nuclear weapons in recent months. a south korea newspaper reports pompeo brought kim jong-un a cd of elton john's "rocket man" as a gift. when asked about it, pompeo laughed but there was no denial. of course "rocket man" was president trump's nickname for kim jong-un when tensions with north korea were much higher. >> rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime. >> with us tonight, victor cha, korea chair at the center for strategic and international studies and former national
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security council director for asian affairs. he's the authorize of "the impossible state: north korea past and future." and jack jacobs, an msnbc military analyst. victor, pompeo wants an accounting of the nuclear arsenal, a plan to dismantle it, and procedures to verify it. is he going to get that? >> no, he's not going to go to the that. it would be nice if he could get all those things. but it's highly unlikely that the north koreans will be willing to do any of those things on this trip. i think it's more likely that he will be able to bring back a commitment by the north to return the 200 p.o.w./mia remains and maybe a decommissioning of a missile engine test site. the problem is these were things that president trump said were already done when he came back from singapore. so they won't look like very big
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deliverables when he comes out of pyongyang. >> and colonel, we have this report that north korea has continued its nuclear activity, maybe even stepped it up. on the flip side, president trump has discontinued these military exercises with south korea. is there a significance there? was that a mistake? >> yeah, it was a big mistake. we have to realize those exercises, what he called war games, we have every year to verify all of our operational capabilities, test them out with our allies, and to train our troops. and to cancel them unilaterally doesn't make any sense whatsoever. it does a couple of things, one of the most significant of which is that it give us our adversaries some concern, understanding that we're not going to meet our obligations, and our allies some concern that
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we're not going to meet our obligations either. it's giving away something for nothing. at the end of the day, we could reinstitute them. but it doesn't seem that we're going to do that. so it's something we ought to be very much concerned about. when you unilaterally decide to do something like this. >> victor, the news again, the reports that north korea has ramped up its activity, i think a layman looked at thing at tha say, isn't that cause to reinstitute military exercises, or is there some other responses that factory into the administration's posture here at all? >> well, to me, it's a great report that nbc did, and it's not surprising to me that the north koreans are seeking to amass nuclear fuel before they enter a negotiation where they will partially but not fully give up any of their capability. from the administration's perspective, yeah, i mean, the right thing to do would be to say, well, if you're going to not fulfill your obligations, we're not going to fulfill hours
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and we'll go back to doing the exercises that were scheduled to be in august, something called ufg, freedom guardian. these exercises, as the colonel said, are perfectly legal. there are no u.n. security council regulations banning our exercises with our allies while there were ten security council resolutions banning north korea's amassing of nuclear fuel. that would be the logical response. the problem is that the trump negotiation is so bought into this negotiation now because the pretty has already declared victory that they cannot do things that look like they are walking away from the negotiations, at least not just yet. >> so what is the -- beyond the meeting this week, what's the future with the u.s. and north korea in terms of the relationship, this idea there was some kind of a breakthrough here, if the kind of denuclearization that apparently is pompeo's goal is maybe unlikely to be achieved here, is there a future to this process or is this -- >> it's not only unlikely. it's just not going to happen. it's all theater.
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and i think it's theater that was staged initially by mr. trump, in order to change the view of him perhaps as an international player. but north korea is not giving up its nuclear weapons. north korea is a continuing criminal enterprise that continues to exist at least partially because it has nuclear weapons and can threaten people who try to attack them. so north korea is not giving up nuclear weapons. the united states has already given up the exercises and can only do it again if it claws it back. i think this is all theater. >> you don't see a scenario where there's a negotiated end, a denuclearization? >> no. there may be a negotiated end to the war, i could see that as a possibility. but, you know, that's all paper. if our real objective is to have the north divest itself of its nuclear capability, that just isn't going to happen. i mean, you should never say
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"never" or "always," but this is as close to "never" as you can get. >> thanks to both of you for being here tonight. coming up, the impact to american businesses and consumers from what china calls the biggest trade war in economic history. my day starts well before i'm in the kitchen. i need my blood sugar to stay in control. i need to shave my a1c. weekends are my time. i need an insulin that fits my schedule. ♪ tresiba® ready ♪ (announcer) tresiba® is used to control high blood sugar in adults with diabetes. don't use tresiba® to treat diabetic ketoacidosis, during episodes of low blood sugar, or if you are allergic to any of its ingredients. don't share needles or insulin pens. don't reuse needles.
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today donald trump's long-threatened tariffs against china went into effect. washington imposed tariffs on $34 billion worth of imported chinese goods. beijing quickly retaliated with $34 billion in tariffs on imported u.s. goods like soybeans, pork, seafood, cars, and whiskey. china's commerce ministry accused the trump administration of igniting the biggest trade war in economic history. in response to what he has said are years of unfair trade policies, the president had already imposed tariffs on
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imports from europe, canada, and mexico, which responded in kind, as well as japan. he's threatening an additional $500 billion on tariffs on chinese imports. fallout from the growing trade war is expected to hit trump's base the hardest. the retaliatory products are mostly produced in the states that voted for donald trump. joining us now is one of the all time veterans in the world of financial journalism, cnbc contributor ron insana. ron, are we in a trade war and how big is it? >> we are in a trade war. it is not the biggest in history. you would have to go back to the 1930s to see that, where we had intense protectionism, the so-called smoot/hawley tariffs that deepened the great depression and led to competitive currency devaluations, what they called beggar your neighbor policies that made things much worse. we're at the beginning of a trade war. if the president were to impose that $500 billion on chinese goods, that's everything that
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china sends us, that would be the trade war to end all trade wars. that would rattle the economy. >> that was my question, look at the stock market today, i think it went up, it ended the day up. >> yep, yep. >> wall street not yet responding like this is a panic situation. >> certainly not panic. wall street has been going sideways since january, since we topped out. we haven't made a new all-time high in the dow or the s&p for quite some time. the nasdaq, being strong in technology, has been doing well. the russell 2000 that is focused on domestic economies has gone to a success of new highs. we see the market differentiating. industrial stocks have taken a hit. in a certain sense, parts of the market are reflecting this emerging trade war. but the overall market hasn't really collapsed. it has in china, however. chinese stocks are down about 23% from their most recent high. >> is there anything to the theory trump talks about being the negotiator, about leverage, about the idea of you start to begun down this road, you rattle china, and then they get nervous
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and then you're able to have some leverage to recenter the relationship somehow? >> there may be. except that china likes to play a long game. when they're thinking about china 2025 or china 2050, we're thinking about usa tomorrow. so to the extent that you have a leader there who is leader for life, and you have a president who is a temporary occupant of the white house, there are different strategies at work here. the chinese could take the hit for a longer period of time, potentially, than the united states if they choose to do so. right now their economy is faltering a bit so they may get hit a little harder. but also getting hit are u.s. companies that reimport parts from other places that they manufacture in china and bring things home that are now being hit with tariffs. there are companies in the united states that are feeling the effect of higher prices, higher input costs and retaliatory tariffs. so everybody has something to lose. trade wars are not win/win. they're not even zero sum games. they're lose/lose, generally speaking. >> the next step, when you say
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it would elevate it to a situation on par with something we saw back in the '30s in terms of the scale of it, is there a sense when the administration would make that decision, if it makes that decision? >> no, i don't think yet. it's moving reasonably quickly as it is. the commerce department determined that the u.s. was harmed economically to the tune of about $50 billion. it's imposed $34 billion worth of tariffs on chinese goods. when you start going above that level of economic harm, then you have to wonder how hard china will retaliate, how hard they'll go, will they drive down the value of their own currency which would make their exports cheap and her offset the impact of the tariffs? they've already reduced tariffs on goods imported from places like vietnam and other asian nations. they've stopped buying u.s. soybeans. this could escalate very quickly. it could get out of control. if that were to happen, you could see a global recession, because outside of the united states, europe is weakening economically. china is, japan is kind of moribund. so it could get nasty quickly.
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the markets are focused more on short term realities. the economy here is good, profits look decent in the second quarter. we'll start hearing about those next week. but in the longer run, when you look out, if this thing were to spin out of control, it would be a serious, serious problem for the global and the domestic economies. >> you mention the smoot/hawley tariff act, going way back. but is there an example of a modern president who has done something on a smaller scale? >> sure, ronald reagan did this with the japanese. if you recall, 1986 or so, we were losing manufacturing jobs to japan and there was great consternation in washington. at one point a group of congress men smashed a toshiba television set on the steps of the capitol. we had arguments with both japan and germany during that people. but they were ultimately amicably resolved and resulted in a strengthening of organizations like the world trade organization. whereas the trump administration wants to break away from those multilateral agreements that govern international trade. if that also were to happen, if nafta were to break down, we
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were to pull out of the wto as the president may have suggested at one point along the way, at least according to some reports, again, you would see a fraying of the global trading system and that could lead to a weakening of the global economy. >> we'll wait to see if there's another move on this. ron insana, thank you for joining us, we really appreciate that. coming up, a closer look at the election odds as they emerge. - i love my grandma. - anncr: as you grow older, your brain naturally begins to change which may cause trouble with recall. - learning from him is great... when i can keep up! - anncr: thankfully, prevagen helps your brain and improves memory. - dad's got all the answers. - anncr: prevagen is now the number-one-selling brain health supplement in drug stores nationwide. - she outsmarts me every single time. - checkmate! you wanna play again? - anncr: prevagen. healthier brain. better life. so let's promote our summer travel deal
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we need to work every day from now until the election for your family, for your community, your country, for your constitution. and this november i need you to get your friends, get your colleagues, get your neighbors and get your ass out to vote. is that okay?
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get your ass out to vote. >> that was president trump. he's already in campaign mode. hey, he's probably been in campaign mode since he got inaugurated. but the mid-terms four months from tonight. you know the stakes. democrats are trying to win back the house. republicans they're trying to hang on. we thought we would take a look at some new numbers we've been getting. a lot of different ways to look at this. we talk about trump's approval rating and the special elections. how about the generic ballot? do you want to vote for democrats or republicans when you go to vote in november? keeps a pretty consistent average of every poll that comes in, and the average right now remember the talk about a month ago is this was collapsing, this was getting really close. it's going back towards the democrat's favor. sitting on average just a little over 7 points ahead of the republicans on this question. you say democrats would win this thing by seven, not necessarily.
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remember in-house elections when you do the aggregate vote nationally, there's an advantage incumbents have, geographic advantage, so seven points for democrats that's probably right around what they need to win the house. that might get it there for them, that might not get it there for them. how about this, though? how does that compare? the last time we had wave elections and 2006 democrats won back the house. iraq was spiring out of control. at this point in '06 these are four polls around this point in the summer. democrats were up double digits. and if you go back and look at the polling pretty steadily you can see it coming in '06. of course they did win back the house. the next time control of the house flipped, the last big wave we had was win 2010, the obama
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mid-terms. republicans won back the house at this point in the summer of '10. republicans were ahead in the generic ballot. in 2010 it wasn't until really after labor day that the republican lead picked up in the generic ballot. democrats up seven, that might be enough. that could change, though. certainly in 2010 it came into focus. we'll see if there's some twist or turns ahead. coming up, it's been a week of record breaking heat across the country. you might want to blame it on the proximity of the summer sun, and you might be wrong. one last thing before "the 11th hour" continues.
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the last thing before we go tonight is a note about today. you know it's july sixth and as we told you at the finning of the hour it's day 533 of the trump administration, and it's exactly four months until the mid-term elections, but it is also when the earth's rotation puts the greatest distance between us and the sun that at any point in that rotation. in other words, we are the farmest from the sun today than we are any other day of the year.
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it's different from the summer solstice which is the longest day of the year when the sun's path through the sky is longer than any other. that happened on june 21st. but earlier today at 9:46 a.m. outwest that was the exact moment the earth and the sun were the farthest apart that they ever get. how far? 94,507,803 miles to be precise. the earth's trip around the sun each year is not a perfect circle. it's actually an elliptical pattern. if we're the farthest from the sun we ever get, then why have we been seeing these record setting temperatures this week? well the seasons are tied to the earth's axis and having nothing to do with the shifting distance from the sun. so depending where you are on this green and blue marble you
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get more heat. a little weather and science lesson there for you. that's our broadcast for a friday night. thank you for being with us and good night from nbc news headquarters in new york. rachel has one more night off but she will be back on monday. now, it's been a big week and a busy friday. a lot to get to, including someone who will be here in studio who we're excited to talk to. you probably saw her over the holiday taking when they go low we go high literally. patricia okoumou scaled the statue of liberty on wednesday to protest the trump administration's policy of separating migrant children from their parents at the border. she'll be live in the studio for her first tv interview in just a few minutes so you do not want to miss that. we're also going to talk live with a lawyer who was arguing

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