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tv   MSNBC Live With David Gura  MSNBC  November 4, 2018 11:00am-12:00pm PST

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[ inaudible question ] >> i know that brian kemp is running great campaign. i think he will be a fantastic governor of georgia. he's run a really great campaign. he will keep georgia going on the path that it's going. i want to start with what is happening right now. the president wrapping up his gaggle with white house press as he heads to macon, georgia. i've got an incredible group of guests. kasie hunt is with me here in new york. beth is our senior politics editor. she's in georgia. kristen, let me start with you.
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the president talking about fever and fervor when it comes to this race. get us up to speed on what the president had to say. >> reporter: i asked the president if he was expecting to lose the house. a few days ago he said it could happen. today he's saying he feels good about the house. he said i feel very good about the senate. to stress the fact that he has been focused largely on senate and gubernatorial races. i think that tells you what his strategy is heading into this home stretch to election day. he wants to make sure that republicans pick up seats in the senate. based on my conversations with officials here, they say we are bracing for a potential loss of the house. that's why you're seeing that focus. he talked about the fever and the fervor. i've been with him at a lot of these campaign rallies and the crowds are packed. he is getting big crowds. excited crowds. fired up. he's also campaigning in places where he is very popular.
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that is what you would anticipate today. he heads to georgia and tennessee and then he makes this slew of stops tomorrow. he's in the slowing down until election day. again, he sees this as not necessarily a referendum on him but certainly voters first chance to cast their ballots on how they feel about his agenda. he was asked that squarely is this voters saying how they feel about him and his agenda. he sort of stepped back and said not necessarily but there's no doubt this is a criminal test f -- critical test. >> he'll have some big surrogates. kasie, let me ask you about that. i'm going to bring to bear some polling data from the latest wall street journal poll looking at likely voters. 50% wants democrats to control the u.s. congress. 43% of those likely voters want
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republicans to control the u.s. congress. give us your sense of where things stand from that data and from the information you've gathered here over the last few weeks. >> we should point out that poll is a slight tightening of the generic battle. i think the big question here that we're trying to answer is just how different is this electorate going to look this time around. how many more more suburban women. how much more millennials or not will show up to vote. right now we're seeing almost a mini presidential election in terms of early voting numbers. when i was out on the trail and i was in four states over the course of four days last week and one issue that kept coming up over and over again among people on both sides was health care. that tells me that there is some strength even among some of the independent voters that i talked
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to. potentially for democrats. yes, when we did run into strong trump supporters, people that supported the president, they did name immigration as a top issue. it fell as though that will cut both ways. exciting the democratic base as much as perhaps it excites republicans. >> is that indicative of policy disciplin discipline? you ahead democrats talking about this is good for us. >> i think it shows you that the republicans who have to run as themselves, so they are not president trump. the question was and this was true when obama was president and democrats were run ng the mid terms. there were questions about whether the president's popularity will trickle down to candidates in his own party. you would not have known from that event that donald trump was in the white house. they were talking about jobs and
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the economy and all those classic republican issues. they almost didn't want to talk about what the president is talking about. i asked scott walker about immigration and he immediately took the conversation some place else. in these swing places where to get elected you have to appeal to independents, it's just a much different story than in these trump bastions. >> beth, i talked to you in atlanta this morning. this happening in the heart of macon, georgia. give us a sense of where that stands now. >> reporter: the interesting thing about this is this is not a balance of power situation here in georgia regarding a republican senate or house that president trump is coming into campaign for. this is a governor's race. specifically a governor's race. that shows how this has become a approximatey in president tru
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proxy if it's the way of land or is something happening and something changing. he's very invested in the out come here of this governor's race which is why he's coming in. you have a republican, brian kemp who is in the trump model. he's tough on immigration and borders. you have stacy abrams who is an african-american woman who is banking that georgia is changing and enough people in georgia is in the new georgia will step forward and vote for a progressive democrat like her. president trump is very concerned that might happen. he's seen the polls that this race is neck and neck. probably basically tied at this point, two days before the final count. that's why he's coming in here to make his case that georgia needs to stick to its history and stay with the kind of candidate who trump is. somebody who is tough on borders who will carry the republican mantle into the next four years. >> i want to go to garrett now. he's in austin, texas. i want to look at the early voting figures. they are so astonishing.
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2018, 4.7 million votes thus far in that early voting in texas. what does that tell you? there's been a yawning gap between the money that the candidates have raised. what is that campaign telling you about the next couple of days? >> reporter: this is the beto o'rourke paradox. he just took the stage behind me. there are at least a couple of thousands people out here for one final stump speech from a candidate who a lot of folks aya they have come out to see time and time again. he's ignited something among democratic and independent voters in texas. we're in austin. this is the big blue dot in the center of texas. if he can turn these thousands of people into a
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voting chorus he has an opportunity to do something that hasn't happened since 1998 and be democrat from texas to go to the united states senate. they dismissed the polls. the campaign does not have their own pollster. they don't conduct their own polls. they have based their campaign on the premise they believe there's people who are uncounted, untested, not part of what they think is an unlikely voter. that's the message he's tried to put out here. he's up against some very difficult math here in texas. that's what they have put their campaign on. it's rallies like this that make a lot of people think they can pull it off. sgh he >> how does democratic leadership look at the race in texas. there's ton of interest because of the money. race because of the star power. help us understand the import for the future of the democratic party. >> it's pretty interest becausing it's a race where the grand planner in the democratic
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party have left it to its own devices. this is not race they thought would be on the map and beto o'rourke doesn't need their help. he could have given that money to help other candidates. to help the dscc. there's been a bit of frufrgs that -- frustration that he seems unwilling to share his bounty because there's the sense he has grander ambitions in the long term. how does the party handle his star power among the base of the party especially if he loses the race. i can't figure out if he will retain this appeal. i think he will have a good bump if he comes close. if he wins, that's a game changer. >> last question to you. the president going to macon next. this is showcasing what i would i think he would say is the donald trump on the campaign trail in this last stretch.
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what does that geography tell you about the president's plan? >> reporter: i think he's going to areas where he's very popular. some of these areas that help sweep him to the white house. he's going to friendly territ y territory. i think that underscores his broader strategy that we're which is to try to energize his base. to try to get those numbers to turn out in such big terms that is what will put them to victory in some of these races that will very tight. be preside the president focused on immigration because he's trying to scare his voters into going to the poll.
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i think that's his strategy. again, i think for this president, the pofocus right no is on his base. >> my thanks to all of you on this sunday afternoon. coming up, ron desantis, the republican candidate for florida is holding a rally right now as his race with andrew gillum tightens. our prime time election team will give you a one hour look at the midterms. (burke) at farmers, we've seen almost everything,
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welcome back. there's fewer than 48 hours until polling places open. a lot of eyes on the race for governor in that state. andrew gillum, the democrat mayor of tallahassee will become the state's first black governor. polls show him and ron desantis
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neck and neck. park, i want to start with a clip from president trump talking about andrew gillum. let's listen. >> i will say this, andrew gillum is not equipped to be your governor. it's not for him. it's not for him. knows it. he won't say it, but he knows it. >> mark, you had a piece you said in the contest for fl governor, race dominates the race. explain that to me. >> i wasn't referring to that snippet. i don't recall that broadside against gillum from president trump. andrew is the first nominee who is african-american. he's also one of the most liberal or perhaps the most liberal that we've seen. we've had attacks on his very
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liberal record and in his view, some of those attacks have also kind of doubled as racial attacks that are wolves in sheep's clothing. when you put together the first african-american nominee for governor and you put together a very conservative candidate in ron desantis who the day after the primary described andrew gillum as articulate and warns voters not to monkey this up when it comes to the state's direction in changing direction. to a lot of people that head incredible racial overtones. andrew gillum said he wasn't using a racial dog whistle. he was using a bull horn. ever since that day, the governor's riace, the race has been more and more about race. >> there's great lines from this, the 2018 midterms that andrew gillum has a lot in there.
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he said he's not calling him racist but the racists are calling him racist. he has he hapndled the attacks? >> that's a great question. i think we'll know more on tuesday. there's a few schools of thought depending on the election season. before 2016, the idea that president trump or a candidate for president would win florida when he had such harsh immigration rhetoric seemed to fly in the face of the florida voter rolls that showed a significant number of hispanics being registered to vote. it didn't cost donald trump the state. kind of quite the opposite. then the conventional wisdom has default in the idea that maybe race, certainly harsh immigration rhetoric, is beneficial to the republicans and a detriment to democrats. he's met these racial controversies and a racist one. ron desantis who said f the
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muslim n word about president obama. he's decided to say, andrew said i'm not going to hide the fact i'm african-american nor the fact i feel these are racially motivated. how many of the fantastic portion of white voters we have in the state is that going to produce a backlash against or as some people like to call a white lash versus how many non-white voters say we see a non-white candidate taking the issue head on. i wish i could have an answer for you. i'm looking at the early and absentee returns, all i see is historic turn out across the board. right now when you look at the total pre-election day ballots cast in florida, a stagger 4.8 million. we see the african-american vote is slightly underperforming the
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registration where the white vote is above its registration percentage on the voter rolls. right now the real underperformers are hispanic voters. by the end of the day we have souls to the polls here among african-americans. a church to head out to the polls after service. we'll probably see that black share of the vote go up. the question is how many hispanic democrats will get out and how many of their own base both on the republican and democratic side are they going to be able to do on election day. election day will be huge. >> i will just note the statistics. 17% of florida's register voters are latino. >> let me ask you about the senate race. you've got bill nelson up against rick scott. it's still a very close race. if you look at that poll there from cnn, what are the issues that are animating this race in the final days? >> really the issue that they probably spoke about the most is health care. the democrats and bill nelson
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have pushed that to the fore for a few reasons. one preexisting health coverage, mandatory has become a top issue nation wide. republicans have been on the wrong side of that from a public polling perspective. also, governor scott used to be the head of a hospital that has paid a record of medicare fraud fund. the democrats want to talk about health care for a reason. locally we had a toxic algae and a blue-green crisis that fouled the waters. that seemed to have affected and i say seem because we don't have good polling, rick scott a little more negatively than bill nelson. there's a possibility that if rick scott loses, that's if, the toxic water problem played a part in that. >> red tide of a different sort. thank you. coming up, we have road
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"look what she's accomplished... she authored the ban on assault weapons... pushed the desert protection act through congress, and steered billions of federal dollars to california projects such as subway construction and wildfire restoration." "she... played an important role in fighting off ...trump's efforts to kill the affordable care act." california news papers endorse dianne feinstein for us senate. california values senator dianne feinstein
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welcome back. already nearly 35 million americans have cast their ballot. exceeding the number of early votes cast nation wide in the year 2014. back then it was just over 21 million votes cast. the two days to go it's president versus president. barack obama is in indiana today. within the next hour president trump is scheduled to arrive in macon, georgia for rally in support of gubernatorial candidate brian kemp. we have a road warrior with the current and former president. what are you hearing from
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voters? >> reporter: people have been lined up all day. they are eager to hear from president trump. this is a race of which he's overseeing the race of which he's running because he's the georgia secretary of state. two days away from election day, his office announcing an investigation into the state democratic party for alleged but unspecified cyber crimes. he says this has to do with an teamed hack of the voter registration system. she says this is another example of an abuse of power by the unethical secretary of state. that has been defined less by any policy issue but over issues having to do with voting. kemp under fire for his support of a controversial exact match
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law which has been used to suspe suspend thousands of voter applications. th that's one of the reasons president trump is coming here. >> a lot of people are holding rallies. this morning the democrat in this tightly contested senate race. she just finished up a half marathon beating her personal record by 12 minutes. we're here in prescott arizona because we were just with martha mcsally.
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martha mcsally was not only here today but she will be here tomorrow. she will really need to spike the vote to make up for republicans in independent voters that are casting their votes for the democrats. s sinema has set herself up as the maveri maverick. it's areas like these, these rural counties outside of the phoenix area where she will need to turn out support. we'll be back right here at the courthouse with martha mcsally in the republican party. we'll send it out to st. louis
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to morgan radford. >> reporter: that's right. we're in the sugar fire smoke house. a few things you may not have known about missouri including their great barbecue, and two things they want. they do not have early voting and they also don't have straight ticket voting. there's no real way to understand how people will vote. health care is one of the things he cares about most. that's a lot of things we heard of in this dead heat race. we have locked in a dead heat battle. voters say they are sticking with the president's agenda and care about immigration. the big test for tuesday is going to be who peels off the moderate voters. they have us guessing until
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tuesday. back to you. >> sugar fire smoke house. thank you very much. my thanks to vaughn in arizona and jeff bennett who is waiting for the president to arrive in georgia. : co coming up, president trump and former president obama going toe to toe on the campaign trail. hoping to make one last appeal to voters before tuesday. how are voters feeling ahead of election day? we'll get a read on that, next. ♪ whether it's a big thing, small thing, or something unexpected, pnc will be right there when you need us. because when it comes to your finances, if you focus on today, tomorrow has a way of working itself out.
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i heard president obama speak today. >> why is it that the folks that won the last election are so mad all the time? >> it's going better than ever before. >> president obama, we were heading south. >> it's constant fear mongering to distract from the record. they're telling you the existential threat to america is a bunch of poor refugees. >> we don't want to go back to the obama days. >> when people can just lie with abandon, democracy can't work. >> presidents past and present with how the country is doing and how the race is going. going toe to toe today in a series of rallies. democrats hold a seven-point advantage among likely voters.
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that's a slight drop from last month and 43% of the those want republicans to be in charge of congress. nevada independent. jeremy peters is a reporter for the new york times. let me start with you and your most recent piece. you write about how candidates are trying to address the anxieties of their voting blocks. we talk about the mood of this country. help us understand how they have been trying to do that. we have seen the policy focus on the president side looking at immigration. what are they trying to tap into when it comes to the emotions of the electorate. >> it's anxiety on both sides to very, very different degrees. democrats are saying that republicans are weak on health care. this is a kitchen table issue that people feel closely to home. they want their protections for their pre-existing conditions. republicans are saying the democrats are weak on immigration.
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it's a little more abstract but they are playing off of fears. we heard of anxieties of this caravan as an invasion and painting themselves as a law and order party. it's fears and anxieties on both sides of two very different degrees. >> your latest piece has date line from the land between the lakes. we're talking about southern minnesota. the difference is a little longer than between brownsville and where this caravan is today. how real is that fear? how are candidates tapping into the electorate in southern minnesota? >> it's very real. as abstract as this caravan might seem. the fact it's thousands of miles away does not seem to matter to the voters. it's present in their mind. it's at the top of their mind. i must say over the last two weeks as i have traveled the country in nebraska especially in these midwestern states, nebraska, iowa, minnesota, missouri, every voter i talked to with the exception of two or three brought up the caravan or immigration as the top issue
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concerning them. it's really quite striking. you have a president like trump that loves to whip up fears over immigration and cater to his white base. these people really go for it. i think you see that in way that's not really been present in previous elections even in the presidential when 2016 you had trump talking about building the wall. this is a different level of anxiety than i can recall. it's a lot fresher. it feels a lot closer for whatever reason even though this caravan is not close at all. >> i want to ask you why. i imagine that's a question you ask a lot of the voters. i don't mean to be glib there. it's so remove fouved from the u.s.-mexico voters. why is it so animating for the voters in southern minnesota in. >> it's not just in southern minnesota.
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like i said everywhere i go i heard this. a few examples of things people say. they talk about the threat oto the country and what that means to them is they feel like the country is changing. that immigrant caravan, i don't think you could get any better physical representation of how the country would change, in their minds, than a mass of,000 santd -- thousands of latin americans. when you look at this last caravan on the march in the spring, something like two people received asylum. 16, maybe a dozen showed up at the border and requesting it. the fears are totally unfounded. >> it's a big issue.
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thanks for nailing the name. i appreciate that. nevada is a microcosm of the country. we're not a border state. in rural nevada where the republicans greatly out number democrats in the senate race between dean heller and jacky rosen, the polling shows that's a huge issue. maybe the number one issue. on the other hand the democrats are using it in the urban areas especially where i'm sitting in las vegas to animate his ppanic voters who are upset about this rhetoric.
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in the more populist area of clark county, that may hurt him. >> just get a sense to the degree the national conversation is driving and what the electorate is talking about. you went to florida a&m university. the fact that it's about florida. help us understand that a bit better if you could. >> i think so many people are focused on the can didacy of andrew gillum, what it means if a democrat can win the house back. if he turns out like he has to in order to win. so many black and latino voters. what that means for the democratic messaging moving forward. he's a candidate who is not really doing what lots of people
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thought a democrat should be doing which is running more toward the center which was shying away from identity issues. he's a person who has gone on stage and said that racist plooracists believe his opponent is a racist. he's gone and countered trump forcefully on issues of race and immigration. he said the migrant caravan is a distraction. he's fighting back on all the things that lots of democrats really tentative about doing. you have people who are looking for a stronger, safety net. when you're looking at expanding the electorate, you have lots of foe folks like the 1.4 million people who cannot vote because of felonies. you have the people that expanding the electorate means
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they may be able to vote for the first time in their lives. the greater themes of the governor's race in florida really means who is counted as a floridan in the future. >> let me turn back to you jon ralston once more. we're looking at two big rallies. the president will be speaking. it's counter program. it's going to be at 4:00 p.m. eastern time. >> there's a couple of interest things there. the president both trump and obama have come to nevada in the last few weeks. trump purposely didn't come because of fear of a backlash and republicans told him not to come. here is an issue affecting the
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nevada race. early voting in nevada ended yesterday. 60 to 70% of the people have already voted. i don't think it's going to have that much of an impact. they sent the two trump kids eric and don junior here to do rallies this past week. they were not overwhelmingly attended but the republicans are behind very badly here in early voting. they need to drive up that rural base that i referred to earlier to have any chance to win these elections on election day. the big gnat race we talked about and there's a very close race for an open governor seat here. i don't think it will have that much impact on the election here except maybe to increase that base turn out. i think they may already be baked in. >> last question to you. what happens on wednesday. we're talking an awful lot about how people feel going into that election. suffice to say things will
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change. what happens to our political emotions come wednesday? >> people will be in recovery mode but they also will be gearing up for 2020. >> already. >> if the democrats do recapture the house majority, they will be asked what they want to deliver or what they will do next with the power they've been given and how they will serve their con sti -- con stimp wents. >> appreciate the time. by the numbers, the final nbc news wall street journal poll has democrats with a slight advantage head sboog tinto the ? the will that hold up? ♪ ♪
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this tuesday, november 6th, democrats are bringing much needed change to america. there's a blue wave on the horizon and i've never felt more confident. >> white women promise to do the right thing this time. they're not going to let us down. right? >> we got this.
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>> that was wave. according to the latest national nbc news "wall street journal" p poll, democrats hold a 7 point advantage over republicans. fred yang who worked on the latest poll is with me as well. i'm drawn to the headline number. i'm looking at the generic number. what else stood out to you about the snol. >> the 59% of american voter whose said they wanted a change from the leadership and direction of donald trump which is on par with the numbers for president obama in 2010 and bill clinton in 1994. and you know what unites those other two midterms is the party in power of the democrats back then lost large numbers of house
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seats. the numbers for the generic, plus the change number also does suggest republicans will lose a bunch of house seats on tuesday. >> sean, what is your counsel to voters who are wondering what's going to happen on tuesday? real clear politics, dealing a lot in averages. we cite the average for politics for a lot of these races, there are those still licking their wounds from back in 2016. what's your counsel to voters? >> well, i think the main counsel is to vote. these are polls we take to get an indicator of how people are going to vote, but there's a reason we hold the elections. sometimes the numbers are off. republicans have a tendency to overperform the jen ngeneric ba. right now it looks like democrats will take the house, but there's enough wiggle room that we shouldn't be shocked if we wake up on wednesday with a republican house. >> let's dig into a few of the races. in st. louis missouri, let's
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look at the late elf polling there. mccaskill is 47%, hawley with 47% as well. this is a dead heat. what are you watching for here in the next couple of days? >> i think the really important number, david, will be president trump's approval rating in the state of missouri, number one. number two, we'll be looking at the -- most polls see in general and also missouri senator mccaskill is winning independent voters, so number one, does she continue to lead with independents? and what share of the missouri elect electorate on tuesday will independents be? if they're a big share and she continues to win, that is a very good sign for her winning on tuesday. >> sean, do you agree with that? >> i do. i think the main thing in missouri is going to be the divide been urban and rural votes. in the past mccaskill has won by holding her own in the rural routes. that might not work this time.
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>> sean, lets pivot to arizona if we could look at the most recent polling from there. sinema with 51%, mcsally with 47%. what are you watching for in that race? >> this is obviously a state with long republican dna. that's kind of what i'm curious about on tuesday, if that dna reasserts itself and if the undivided break republican. if this continues into the 2018 midterms, it could spell big trouble for republicans in 2020. >> fred, i'm going to read a recent tweet from the president of the united states. arizona is a great state, but it needs border security which martha mcsally will provide and kirsten sinema doesn't even think about. vote for martha. let's dig back into that nbc news "wall street journal" poll and talk a bit about the issues that are animating voters here heading into the election. the president has been talking and talking and talking about immigration. to what degree is that
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resonating or registering with voters around the country? >> one of the unique questions we asked in the poll is if you were going to vote for a democratic or republican congress, what message would be you sending. those voting for republican control was immigration and border security. the other part of the poll that's interesting also is that the level of interest with young voters, with minorities, african-american and latino, are at record highs. you could argue -- i guess you could argue every issue. you could argue there are two sides to the issue. yes, it does motivate republicans, but it's going to motivate a lot of young voters and latinos also to possibly vote on tuesday for a democrat. so i think that's another thing we'll be looking out for is the record level of interest and in some of these state ws where we have data, the number of voting for younger minorities in regard to past midterms.
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>> the president has welcomed that on the campaign trail. he says he's not the ballot but he is somewhat on the ballot. i think 40% said it is a referendum on the president of the united states. your read of that, sean? >> well, i think fred's first comment, what we're really interested in is what the president a approval rating is in some of these states is spot on. these elections do tend to be first and foremost referenda on the party in power. so if this is a backlash against the republican party, first and foremost, it's going to be a backlash against donald trump. that's why the president is out there beating the drum of vote republican, vote republican. he doesn't want that backlash. >> he'll be beating that again this afternoon as he makes his way to macon, georgia. one more reminder, coming up at 9:00 eastern, our prime-time election team provides a one
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hour live look at the midterm elections. join brian williams, rachel m maddow, eugene robinson for what you need to know before you cast your vote. be right back here on msnbc. freak alert. jaylen... jaylen's a freak about hand slicing all natural meats for every jimmy john's sandwich he makes you should see him with capicola freaky fresh. freaky fast. jimmy john's. now try your favorite on our new nine-grain wheat sub.
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that does it for me. i'm david gura. don't forget to vote.
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i will be back next saturday and sunday from 8:00 to 10:00 a.m. eastern time. the news continues with reich ard louis sk. >> a weekend to be having a show. hello to you. i'm in for jasmine vossoughian. 39 yours before the first polls open for a midterm election like none other. a record 34 million early votes have already been counted. that is a number up to today. that exceeds the nationwide early vote from 2014. it puts democrats with a slight edge over republicans when it comes to control of the house. within the next hour, we're watching for this. president trump and former president obama, they will be on the road. we will go to them when they do begin their spe

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