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tv   Morning Joe  MSNBC  November 6, 2018 3:00am-6:00am PST

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after 2016. >> mike allen, thank you on this big day. sign up for the newsletter at signup.axios.com. >> that does it for us on this tuesday election morning. "morning joe," everyone,er starts right now. >> today, america votes for congress and statehouses for governors and the senate and maybe just for a check on president trump. voters will cast their ballots for the future and you have a chance to weigh in today and decide on who speaks for you in washington. and whose message should be amplified to do world.
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it's tuesday, november 6th, election day. welcome to "morning joe." along with joe, me and willie, we have susan delper kri o, former chairman of the republican national committee michael steele, political reporter for the daily beast, betsy woodruff. moments ago, all or some of the polling place necessary nine states, including connecticut, indiana, kentucky, maine, new hampshire, new jersey and vermont have opened to the public. the state's control of the statehouses and congress and here are the numbers so far. in the senate, democrats need two seats to gain control. in that shame better, they have received some very good news where bob menendez gained a 15-point lead.
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in the house, democrats need to gain 23 seats to take control. yesterday the cook political report released its final ratings with 25 republican-held seats and five held by democrats. and a 41 open seats held by republicans, 15 are rated tossups. or leaning toward the democrat. while only five, joe, lean republican. >> it's going to be a huge day. let's look at some of the headlines. "the washington post," uncertainty rules as the midterms reach the wire. the washington globe, donald trump says he is on the ballot. he is right. the "new york times," a campaign to be decided that is driven by division. and, welly, it has been driven by division.
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michael steele will tell you this. any campaign chairman that had sent a president to a swing state to try to influence swing voters and said, hey, listen, we're going to have you up there with rush limbaugh and sean hannity, they're going to be campaigning for you. in any other world, the candidate would go, you know, that's awesome, jim, you're fired. that's just not what you do. >> you forgot judge piro, as well. >> of course, this comes on the heels of paul ryan reportedly calling donald trump this past week and he said, please, talk about the economy. talk about unifying issues. talk about the things that are going to get swing voters out and actually help us. and donald trump said, no, i can my immigration, the ad and all
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that, he thinks that's is going just agreed. let me tell you something. if that worked, then i would suggest tonight would be an even bigger shock that 2016. >> the last two years have been about donald trump and his personality, the ability to control the conversation, and he's using that power over the last few months to talk about himself and his accomplishments. and you think think the chief among those would be the economy. we have that jobs report on friday. the friday before election day. but alas, the president is picking a base play in a lot of places where he needs to broaden the map. >> something like that in the weekend election, you would take that to the bank.
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you're running for congress, you put that in your hip pocket and you say, look at what we've done and instead, the reality of it is it doesn't work in a swing state. you need those district voters to come out and inventivicentiv them. >> donald trump knew, susan, that his job was to do no harm, keep his head low, let people talk about rillry. the final ten days, he's made it all about himself. and, you know, like we've said before, when people are talking about dianne feinstein rigging
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the process of the kavanaugh hearings or they're talking about hillary clinton rigging the democratic national convention or, you know, whatever they're talking about, if the topic is not donald trump, donald trump does better. he's made it all about himself, all about small pox, all about ads so racist that even fox took them down. he's penning that. and you can look at the data. patrick feeney, i saw him, a republican, saying look at the data on the up shot polls. this past week has been devastating for republicans if you believe polls. >> but you would have to go under the assumption that donald trump is going out there to help other people. he's not. he's going out there to help
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himself. i think he is doing this the red state strategy because he doesn't want to get primaried. that is why he's doing this. >> even if alanguage ya cummi-- elijah cummings gets the subpoena power? you ask any republican candidate, they would say donald trump has irked them the last couple of months. >> and we should remember he lost the national popper lar vote by 3 million votes. >> a couple of races to watch, kentucky's 6th district where pol polls close at 6:00 p.m. georgia, 6th, 7th districts and six competitive houses in
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florida, as well. races to watch in illinois including the 6th, 12th and 14th. and new york's 19th and 22nd districts along with michigan's 8th district and their 32nd district of texas. >> so, mika, you look, really, at 6:00 and 7:00, we're going to know so much. that kentucky race, if amy mcgrath comes through and wins there, you've got a veritable cornucopia of demographic breakdowns in virginia districts. you're going to be able to tell so much just by what happens in 6:00 and 7:00. >> had let's go to the big board. steve kornacki joins us now. steve. >> yeah. let's take a look. happy election day, by the way. let's take a look at some of those early contests and why they're going to be so important. kentucky here at 6:00, let's take it inside that district. this was the 2016 result in
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kentucky's 6th district. this was a trump by 16 points district. andy barr, the republican, is the incumbent here. democrats think they might have a shot at this race. why do they and what could that tell us about the state of play nationally? if you go inside of it, this is one of those districts -- i wish the city label came up here. but the city of lexington, university of kentucky, about 40% of this is in and around lexington, kentucky. college students, younger people, college-educated voters, white collared professionals, so we will see in and around lexington, is the democratic energy there? the other aspect of this is the outlying resolutely trump areas, trump winning with 70% of the vote. is the trump energy a touch
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lower? also, have democrats succeeded in make i any inroads into trump country. as you mentioned, people will be keeping a close eye on this 7th district. two counties outside richmond make up this district. it was dave brat in 2014 who set off a political earthquake when he knocked off eric cantor in a republican primary. that victory by dave brat in many way withes portended the rise of donald trump, the mood of the republican electorate. and now dave brat finds himself one of the most endangered republicans out there. if spanberger, the democrat, is able to move things, that could tell you big things are happening for democrats in virginia, yes, but nationally,
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as well. and there are four districts at 7:00 closing in virginia that democrats expect to get the vote. charlottesville, the second around virginia beach. hosted directs in florida and i should mention we've talked so much about stacey abrams, the democratic race in georgia. that could have a ripple effect if she succeeds. in two house directs, f republicans will find themselves vulnerable. >> steve, new york 19, i know you've been looking at that one closely. john fasso running again antonio delgaudio. it was plus 7 obama in 2012 and
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almost a straight flip in 2016 to trump. how is that working out? >> you see the poll there on your screen. the lead by one point is delgado. these districts, they're the clinton districts. republicans represent them right now. but the voters didn't vote for trump in 2016. there are 25 of those. so if democrats clean up with those districts, democrats are probably going to lose a couple of their own. that would basically get them close to house control. the second tier, then, smaller number here, but it's what you're talking about, the ones that went obama and then slipped to trump. the very, very outer edge, you can call it the new york suburbs, but getting into rural, more blue collar areas. here is an endangered republican. faso was elected in 2016 in part because trump did much better in this district than was expected.
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trump ended up winning this district by 20 points. faso's margin was 8 points. so trump improved performance off expectations. are you going to see the flip side of it here? the third tier of races when you get beyond these obama/trump is the races that are in pure trump country, they've been red across the board. if democrats start making inroads in those types of districts, we're not just talking about democratic control at that point. we would be talking about a sizable democratic wave. >> so a couple quick questions. we have indiana closing at 6:00, right? and one of the key senate races are going to be up there. so between the senate race in indiana and between the race in kentucky, the house race in kentucky, if either of those break one way or the other more dramatically than we expect, that could really tell us how the night is going to go, couldn't it?
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>> yeah. and i think that indiana race, keep in mind, indiana has every state -- not every state, but early voting, a lot of people are taking advantage of it. there's parts of indiana that are out in the central time zone that are not going to be closing at 6:00 eastern time. but most of the state will and we'll get a lot of returns in this race. our final poll in indiana had joe donnelley, the democrat, ahead by a couple of points. trump won this state by two points two years ago. if donnelley is running head in the early going, that portends well for democrats in indiana. it opens up a similar state in missouri for claire mccaskill. democrats in florida, as well.
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the one thing i would say is if we start watching early on tonight and we see a wave taking shape on the house side, something on the order of 40 seats or more for the democrats, if, if, if that happens, i think we start that, we will on the air start to have a conversation about the senate because i think when you get a wave on that side, it will necessarily indicate that something has changed on the senate side, too. >> and important for everybody looking at indiana to understand, a very, very republican state, but a state that went for barack obama. and i remember being shocked in 2008, it went for barack obama. and when mike pence was selected as vice president, most political insiders in indiana said a very good thing for mike pence because he was going to lose the governor's race in 2016, anyway. so one final question, patrick grafini said a week ago he didn't see much move in either
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way, but said there's been an unmistakable move for democrats in the last week, at least a plus three. have you seen that? >> yes, yes. but those polls have disproportionately come from one source, the "new york times." you have to keep out the possibility that maybe somehow they got it wrong. but let's take a look here. these are all in the last couple of days from the "new york times." how about this? georgia six, democrats pumped $30 million into here about four years ago. they lost. republicans very encouraged about that. 18 months later, karen handel finds herself two points behind. this is one on of those places, if there is a surge for stacey abrams, that could take out karen handel. how about this one, this was a
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romney district, this was a trump district. mike bishop, republicans. all year, they still thought he might be able to hang on locally. final poll here has him falling behind by 7 points. there is this one. this one probably surprised me the most again. romney/trump experts. final poll puts randy holcrom six points behind. then pete sessions, he was the chair of the nrcc. >> that's just a shock. and i've got to say, if beto has any chance of winning, this is a good district to look at. because dallas suburbs, the numbers, the turnout, the early voting there is extraordinary. this -- if you ask me who was one of the safest people i served with, their seats, i would say pete sessions. the fact that he is in danger of
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even losing to a democrat suggested that, my gosh, something big that people have been talking about for a long time is starting to happen in texas. that's a shocking result to me and it suggests that the beto race may be closer than a lot of cocky conservatives were talking about two weeks ago. >> and this district fits that profile. it's with one of those, traditionally republican suburbs voted for clinton in 2016. didn't like trump. now the risk for session sess for those voters to say two years in, it's not just trump, it's trump's republican party and they start turning out in those huge numbers. go down to the houston area there, you might see it there. there are a couple on other potential sleeper districts we might keep an eye on tonight. but, yeah, the suburbs, dallas, houston, those areas in
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particular, if those are alive and those are lopsidedly democratic, watch out statewide because it could get interesting there. >> steve, hopefully we'll see you at 8:00 a.m. eastern time as we continue our coverage. thank you very much. >> well, steve, and at 9:00 and 10:00 and 11:00 -- >> and willie will be doing it this morning. >> i'll be on from 2:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. and steve will ride with me through the night. >> and steve, we will see you addeled by that point. >> you will be blathering at that point. >> i want to get betsy in here before we go to break. trump was using racism in his closing message. he was asked to talk about the economy which would be so effective given that it's doing so well on many levels. what are you looking at? >> the race i'm most interested in is virginia 7, which steve talked about.
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the democrat challenging dave brat is a former cia operative. she can't even tell us what countries she was stationed in. if she's able to pull off an upset there, it will be significant. the important vital context to remember when we're talking about the president's rhetoric on immigration, of course, is that it's incorrect. the president's closing argument has been that democrats are inviting people to illegally enter the united states. first, these people are not coming because democrats are inviting them. they're coming from very dangerous countries in central america in large part because these countries are, you know, crippled by gang problems and by poverty. and additionally, many of them are not coming illegalingly. coming to the united states and seeking asylum is protected under international law. so when you listen to the trump
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speeches, it's important to remember those facts. >> he makes it sounds like mauraders are pouring into this country. >> i have a lot of democratic friends, a lot of liberal friends, a lot of conservative friends. and my feeling has been, you know what? this is america. it's a big country. you vote the way, obviously, you want to vote and i'm in month post to judge you. that's a little harder to do in 2018 when you have the president of the united states lying about small pox, coming to the united states, you've got the president and his robots, his followers, lying about this ghost caravan, lying that george soros is funding it, lying that now the democratic party is funding it.
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the president is putting up up an ad that is so racist you have fox news taking it down saying, we can't play that ad. that is too racist. i could go on and on. you have rush limbaugh at the campaign last night lying saying hillary clinton and the russians colluding? how stupid does rush think the people behind him are? you have sean hannity campaigning saying i am not campaigning. free country. free to do it if they want to, but everybody is following donald trump's lead. they're lying through their teeth. they're spreading the big lie. they are attacking nonwhite people. and donald trump has chosen, he has chosen to choose racism over a strong economy. >> well, that, joe, is for me
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and i think for a lot of republicans one of the linchpins in this whole thing is that it's not like republicans don't have a narrative they can go out to the country and talk about. it's not like they can't -- yeah, i get the battle over supreme court justices and all of that. but that's a good thing in terms of what the republicans are saying look, we want a strong, conservative judiciary and strong economy. but no, they've fallen into this bucket where they feel they can pedal or at least stay silent on inherent racism and bad behavior. somehow they think the american people are going to sit back and go, yeah, we want more of that. this election is going to be a very important tell as to which direction the american people want us to go based on the fact pattern right before us now. i think today the could be a bigger -- have a bigger impact in the long run than anything we've seen. >> behavior, willie, that we would not abide by in our
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5-year-old children. >> that's right. >> and our 10-year-old children and our 20-year-old children and our 30-year-old children. and i think a lot of people in those audiences would never allow their children to lie and be as uncouth and -- >> cruel. >> and cruel to other people who are not like them. it just -- and evangelicals, i mean, have they read the beattitudes lately? and i'm serious, one by one by one, have they read the story of the good samaritan? have they gone to matthew 25? again, i'm not preaching here. this is basic stuff. this is like saying george washington was the first president of the united states instead of the 37th. this is basic stuff for anybody that's ever opened a bible. donald trump's words and actions
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and the way he has treated other people has been the antithesis of that. still, you vote for whoever you want to vote for, but please, please, understand exactly what you're voting for. >> by the way, to him, it's a game. it's a cynical game. he said yesterday his one regret in the first two years was his tone. he basically shrugged his shoulders and said i know a lot of the stuff i say is awful, but it's working. remember when he said i have no regrets? it got him elected president. we'll see tonight if it's still working. >> what happens if he gets trounced in michigan, if he gets trounced in wisconsin? >> he won't own it. he's already made it very clear, joe, that if anything bad comes out of tonight, it's not my fault. i got out and rallied the base. accountable and ownership is not in his wheel house. and i think in the long run, joe, he doesn't care whether there's a republican sitting across from him as speaker of
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the house. that's not his end game. i think he would prefer to have a democrat sitting there because its creates a boogeyman for the next two years to go after to -- >> except for subpoena power. >> if republicans lose tonight, we don't know. they could win big. i could see it happening. >> i could, too. >> if these polls are wrong, and polls have been wrong before, that's one thing. if they lose, it would have been so easy for people to say, look at the economy. look -- listen, i disagree with what donald trump says. >> but here is what he's done. >> i distanced myself from some of his racist statements. but let me tell you what we have done as republicans. we have cut taxes. we have cut regulations. we have become allies with small business owners across the united states and we have driven
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the unemployment rate to its lowest level in the past 50 years. consumer confidence is up. the stock market, stronger than it's ever been over the past two years. better days are ahead. we're going to check donald trump and when he says offensive things, we're going to call him out. but we're going to keep pushing for conservative supreme court justices. we're going to keep pushing for lower taxes. you could do that. >> yeah, you could. >> you can do two things at once. i know. i attacked republicans and becomes when they were wrong. >> got to run for something. >> you just laid out the 2018 campaign. >> they don't have the guts to -- >> but you have to have the backbone to call out the president and they don't. they're selling america's values out to get re-elected. >> they're selling out america if they don't put a check on this president. still ahead on "morning
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joe," we've got live reports from the battleground races in arizona and florida. plus, two of the closest advisers to president obama's 2012 campaign. valerie jarrett and jim mesino join us. we've added some special coverage for tomorrow broadcasting live from a historic studio hhi. >> by the way, willie and i are going to be singing bohemium rhapsody live tomorrow. >> is there anything that you regret that you wish on you that you could take back and say redo in the last two years? >> i would say tone. i would like to have a much softer tone. i feel to a certain extent i have no choice, but maybe i do and maybe i could have been softer from that standpoint. but i want to get things done.
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add north carolina, ohio and west virginia to the list of states where polls are now open as of three minutes ago. so we'll be following this all day long here on msnbc. betsy woodruff, before you go, what are you looking at as you head out today? >> one of the most interesting questions will be if there's a split result in florida. marco rubio said earlier this year that he would not be campaigning against bill nelson in part because he had such a good working relationship with nelson in the senate. that kind of bipartisan comedy is vanishingly rare in washington. rubio has been campaigning with ron desantis who is a staunch
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ally of president trump. if floridans vote for desantis but don't re-elect nelson, which doesn't seem likely, but it could point to a political advantage rubio has. so i'm occur canus about that. >> and today's midterm elections -- >> by the way, florida, it has really broke en the past couple of days hasn't it, susan? >> it has. you thought rick scoot coutt co take on nelson. be desantis is pulling him down and gillum is helping nelson. i don't think anyone saw that as the state of play for florida. >> and there is no doubt that michael, if adam putnam had won the primary -- >> completely different race. >> he would be smoking a cigar in tallahassee somewhere going, i wonder how quickly i can get
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in to measure -- by the way, adam doesn't talk that way and i don't think he smokes a cigar. but adam putnam would have won this race by 15 points. look at virginia. what is corey stewart going to do along with donald trump? tore barbara comstock. this was going to be a hard race for her from the beginning. there are so many things working against her. >> so it does matter how you set up the general election. when i was chairman, i always emphasized, yes, the primary is the first step. we have to win the election. so it matters, the candidates you put forth. you look at florida. that race could have been completely different right now. the dynamics would have been very different. even if desantis hadn't come up with that idiotic monkey up comment, the dynamics of that
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race would have been different than they are right now. it does matter, the quality of candidates. it does matter how they behave in the race. and the up upsiside for gillum, man has created coat tails. even if he doesn't pull this thing out for some reason, he still has created coat tails that are helping nelson and other down ballot candidates. >> bill nelson owes a debt of gratitude to gillum after this election, with regardless of the turnout. last night, president trump campaigned with a trio of female advisers. was it a last-minute pitch to women voters? that discussion is next on "morning joe." >> oh, boy, i don't know if i want to be here for that.
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tell me, does it concern you that half your base thinks they can vote for you through instagram? >> yeah. it's going to have to turn into real votes, but we're seeing a huge voter turnout so far. >> but i'm worried about these
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vote machines. tell me this, with the uncertain uncertain uncertainty surrounding these voting machines, is it important for democrats to go out there and vote twice? >> vote once. that's the law. >> i can't believe this. this is a privilege. can you tell these people not to kill me if i make a joke or two? >> that depends the how bad the joke is. just remember, it wasn't the republicans, it was the democrats who took you you to the vet to get fixed. >> i support spaing aying and neutering just like trump did to you. >> oh, oh, oh. >> here is the thing. >> oh, my. >> let's just move on. let's not -- >> robert spiegel comes after you -- >> joe. >> this is what you do. republican or democrat alike,
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you just lay still, pretend that you're dead and you let the bear walk past you. all right. >> i had the thought for a moment there, i said senator cruz is hanging in there until smeigle comes in and you're never going to beat smeigle. >> the highlight, we actually -- this was after hours in boston, the 2004. ron reagan and i were hosting. smeigle came in and snelted everyo -- insulted everyone on set. then he said something that carl bernstein disagreed with and bernstein started debating triumph. >> earnestly. >> earnestly. so i immediately said, give me a split, give me a split. so you have bob woodward
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debating like this and triumph on the other side going -- >> from watergate to triumph. >> exactly. moving on, power up. jackie, you're looking at president trump's last-minute pitch to women voters and whether it's too lit too late. what did you find? >> well, last night, there was the unusual sight of seeing president trump in indiana flanked by his daughter, ivanka trump, sarah huckabee sanders and then the white house counselor kellyanne conway who happened to be the three most requested sur r requested surrogates. you saw the president mitt himself with sinclair broadcasting that after two
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years of using very inflammatory and divisive rhetoric that he probably could have taken a softer tone. and i think that's because this president is finally realizing that he is at risk of being a one-term president. it isn't something that you can just ignore, but it is possible that this is too lit too late. >> and with these swing voters and you look at suburban voters, how do you think sarah huckabee sanders and ivanka trump and -- trying to do it with a straight face. kellyanne conway. do you think they're going to sway these voters? >> women voters are not going to respond because they see some females up there who have been basically telling women that they don't matter. they don't care about the
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policy. >> what did can kellyanne say about dr. ford, that she shouldn't be treated like a what? >> a fabrege egg. >> right. how does that actually appeal to swing voters? >> swing voters should not be -- the trump folks at this point should just not try to appeal to them at all. because, frankly, none of the trump administration is appealing to swing voters. women or men. >> so, jackie, the other part of the conversation is that appealing to the women in that room at that rally in the state of indiana, that's not the group of white women they need to appeal to. president trump won them by some 30 points. the women they hneed to appeal o are women in ohio and places like that.
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>> that's right. we saw them praising female candidates, especially, for being strong women and being mothers. i think sara huck h huckabee sa said women, mothers are the best people to run the country. if the president can't close when the economy is as good as it is, then this white house has a big problem. >> jackie, what else are you writing about in the newsletter this morning? >> we touch base with all of our political reporters about what they're watching so you should
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definitely look at that. and then we also talked with a bunch of gop operatives who are pretty worried about today and didn't really hold back, at least on background. and basically said that the house race is totally cooked. and that the sky is falling for a bunch of republicans. but the two races republicans are going to be watching really closely are kentucky, this is a place that trump won handily and it looks like amy has a very close possibility of winning. so as this operative phrased it to me, if andy loses come 7:00 p.m. eastern standard time, republicans are out of the first round. then we're looking very closely at virginia where there are a lot of competitive races in traditionally republican strong holds. steve bannon was campaigning this weekend for brat and said if brat loses this race, that's
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it for the president. and but, you know, meanwhile, at that same time, i talked with a van vassar on the ground who said there were 250 people volunteering for her that day to knock on doors. meanwhile, at this event, there were all of 40 people. >> jackie, thank you very much. great to have you on. good luck today. >> thank you very much. >> the power up newsletter that dave brat does not want certain people coming to the district to campaign for him, they do not want steve bannon. >> and donald trump, it is interesting, it seems like donald trump is realizing too little too late that maybe his slash and burn techniques are not only hurting in 2018, but aren't setting him up well for
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2020. >> well, the action is in the house. you mentioned elijah cummings. all of a sudden, adam schiff takes over intel. you don't have devin nunes any more. all these things could impact the future of donald trump's presidency would be controlled by democrats. so you think that is where the energy would be. >> as we continue on this election day, a warning about voter fraud, president trump's closing message, that election officials seem to know nothing about. "morning joe" is coming right back. >> all you have to do is go around, take a look at what's happened over the years and you'll see. there are a lot of people, a lot of people, in my opinion, and based on proof, that try and get in illegally and actually vote illegally. so we want to let them know that there will be prosecution at the highest level. - meet the ninja foodi, the pressure cooker that crisps,
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we're wlak back. final thoughts from michael steele and susan del percio, don't forget to vote. >> what are you looking for tonight? >> i'm looking to et see whether or not the american people are ready to take that step where they redefine the narrative going forward. if they are ready to put in place leadership that reflects them. this is an important election. it's not about the drama queen in the white house. it's not about policies because republicans aren't talking about it. >> what's the win? what's a win for republicans? >> a win for republicans tonight, bare minimum, hold the house by one seat. >> it's a huge win.
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>> it's huge. >> you agree? >> tremendous. >> even by one? >> all it takes is one. >> all the narrative is. >> what's a win for democrats? bare minimum? >> bare minimum, if the democrats take 33 in the house, us think they have a decisive win that they can really use and do that momentum. if they can even keep the numbers they have in the senate, that would be tremendous. i think you look at someone like claire mccaskill who you should never count out. that means they are going to be good. >> bare minimum win for democrats? >> a one-swing seat in the senate. and get. ing those 25 seats minimum in the house. >> michael steele, susan, thank you both very much. coming up, "the washington post"'s bob woodward on the
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>> democrats are inviting caravan after caravan of illegal aliens to flood into our country and overwhelm your communities. we're building the wall. don't worry. we have already started. although it looks like it's going to be effective with bar issue wire too. with soldiers standing in front. >> for ten years everybody said brett kavanaugh, i didn't know who he was. this woman came out and said she made up the story. >> they got to look at the other ones also because take a look at the other ones, folks. >> my last stop is here. i think for one reason, for one reason and i have to say it
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because this is the home of rush limbaugh. if we don't do so well tomorrow, they will put me on the ticket. if we do great tomorrow, they will say he had nothing to do with it. he was not on the ticket. >> hateful. >> he's unbelievable. kids, if you're keeping score at home, it's just not even close. the liars like 50, truth tellers, 0. democrats support mobs, republicans support jobs. and then the mob chants "lock her up", the woman that beat donald trump by almost 3 million votes two years ago. mobs, not jobs, i think it was donald trump support er that isn't pipe bomb. s to all of donald trump's
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enemies list. >> critics of president trump. >> said democrat cans are inviting illegal immigrants. no, democrats are not inviting them to america. they are leaving guatemala because it's the most violent place on the planet. they are hoping to get refugee status, which ronald reagan said is what america does. donald trump said he's already building a wall. this is a lie that donald trump has really tried out this week. we got billions of dollars already to build a wall. that's a lie. we're getting billions of more dollars to build a wall. that's a lie. he said mexico is going to pay for the wall. that's a lie. and then rush limbaugh came out and lied about hillary clinton working with the russians to conspire in the 2016 race. it's not a shock. we're not shocked. we just want you to be educated and not -- they think you're
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stupid. donald trump thinks you're stupid. rush limbaugh thinks you're stupid. do we have a picture of sean hannity not campaigning? >> he was campaigning. >> this is how stupid sean hanna ty thinks you are. he thinks you ask your family are so stupid that he can say he's not campaigning and then he's there. there's sean hannity in the middle not campaigning. i got no problem with sean hannity campaigning if it he wants to campaign. nobody accused him of being a journalist. he can campaign all he wants. that's totally fine. but here's the thing. about the trump administration, they just lie. and they are robots that follow them around. they are sycophants just lying. and they are free to lie. this is america. but i would ask you again before you vote today, if you don't have a google machine in your home, go next door. knock on your neighbor's door. ask to borrow their google
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machine. check all of this stuff up that they have been saying. i'd like to use another word other than stuff, but i can't. about george soros funding migrants coming up here and having smallpox, when's the last time? smallpox was eradicated when? >> 1980 was the last case. >> the only thing they have not suggested so far is that donald trump is the only person that can actually stop martians from coming to your backyard and eating your dog's poop. that's the only thing they haven't suggested yet. but that's every bit as likely as these migrants in caravans. maybe donald trump will say that tonight. maybe rush limbaugh will say once they get the taste, you know where i'm going here.
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it's so preposterous the lies that they are spreading that i can't even be. shocked and outraged anymore. because they are so dumb. here's the catch. they think you're even stupider. i know you're not. that's a relief. >> we'll find out. >> thomas jefferson, what did thomas jefferson say? what's democracy depend on? an educated electorate. >> that's right. >> let me ask you this question, dave. was that one of the most interesting introductions you have ever had since being on television? >> since i was in larry stabenow's political science class, yes. >> andrew ya mitchell is with us. >> there's bob. how are you doing? >> well. >> you have a couple icons of
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the news business. listening to martian dog poop. >> the point is, and i'm serious. that has as much connection to reality as everything donald trump has been saying over the past three weeks about this caravan, this magical mystery caravan where they are bringing smallpox and george soros is paying for it. t t t the anti-hispanic fever. he called them breeders. this race should not be. close. >> it's all out in the open. he say it is behind the presidential seal. he says it in ads on television. but what i will say is you have a democrat yesterday in arizona who is running in the state of arizona come out in support of the president's move to send troops to the border. so there are places like arizona, where his messaging works, even for a democrat. but i think another question to
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ask the people in that crowd and people who continue to support president trump is if he's going to build the wall and he's been saying so for three and a half years now, where's the wall? you're the president. you control the house, you control the senate, you own washington. where's the wall and why would youen continue it believe the promise if he hasn't done it now, what makes you think he's going to do it ever. >> the president saying the past couple weeks he's a nationalist right before the pipe bombs and the shooting at the synagogue. david duke praising him saying thank god he finally came out and said he was a nationalist just like david duke. so there's so much that's happened over the past couple weeks. we shouldn't be surprise d afte charlottesville, after all the lies, we shouldn't be surprised after the birtherism. but i wouldn't be surprised if the american people award that type of behavior. >> here's why i'm not so sure, and i want to take this to bob woodward, but.
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every step of the way we have underestimated the power of donald trump, his brand iing power, his ability to establish himself in the hearts and minds of the american people as a reality host, as a so-called mogul. >> wait, he lost $200 million of his dad's money. >> i said so-called mogul. >> even his ratings ended up being pretty bad. >> it's like the wizard of oz. but the yellow brick road was made better because the compliant congress, we have complicity within the administration, nobody is stepping up. we had one "new york times" op-ed where somebody wrote -- anonymous post. we had complicity within the administration every time he
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lies. nobody is stepping up and saying it's wrong. and then ultimately you have an arm of the media that is also compliant. fox news. i don't think we could have expected this con influence of events, which is leading to this presidency being effective in its ability to communicate and whittle away at the truth. today the truth and also the reparation of the immediamedia stake. but there are things that republicans can run on as it pertains to this presidency. there are accomplishments. we can't argue with that. are there not? >> certainly, but some of the what you have to do is look at the policies here in national security and the economy. take the tax cut, there's a lot joe knows this that is artificial and it is a classic fiscal stimulus that makes the economy look better than it is. corporate tax rates were from
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35% to 21% and there's a day so we now have more deficits. if you talk to economists or people from congress, left, center, right, and really examine what they are thinking they are going to say, these deficits are going to explode some day. so we have created this idea, oh, it's a great economy and donald trump gave it to us. well, the deceit that is in all the things you're talking about is also in this economic policy. >> it is as peter baker pointed out, barack obama created more jobs. wait a minute, as a conservative, i can't say that because the government doesn't create jobs. more jobs were created while barack obama was president than in donald trump's presidency.
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the second thing is we heard these tax cuts for the rich, for the biggest corporations on the planet. for donald trump's friends as he bragged that night . it might have spiked the markets for a little bit, but the markets have given up all those gains over the past year. so here we are the only thing that's different is we're another trillion dollars in debt. we're up to $22 trillion now. >> and you have the big baby boomer ageing population hanging over everything. not to get too wonky of what's going to. happen when people start retiring and the entitlements burden that exists, what you talk about in terms of the debt, that's the thing overshadowing the economy. there's no question that job creation, the jobs numbers on friday were terrific.
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wages started growing finally. they could have been bragging, the president could have been bragging all weekend about that. and instead he finds it boring and so he trots out -- >> you heard paul ryan try to get him to talk about the jobs and he said, no, i want to talk about smallpox and caravans. >> bob woodward can weigh in on this. the great disappointment where is general mattis? where's the defense secretary speaking about deployment of up to 15,000, the president says, it's now 5,200. what is the mission? he did pull back from saying they would use their guns against kids with stones, but what are we talking about here? the gaza strip? this is an appalling misuse of, first of all, their training opportunities, their thanksgiving and holidays with their families and what is this deployment on the border all
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about? >> it's for nothing. >> bob, how did general mattis go along with this? >> well, he said publicly we don't do stunts. of course, this is a stunt. what is in addition appalling, the president praising barbed wire, beautiful barbed wire. is there no sense of history about the symbolism in the world of barbed wire? i'm surprised that, quite frankly, mattis didn't say, no, we're not going to do this because it clearly is a stunt. that's the only thing he said, we don't do stunts. here they are immersed in one. of course, i'm sorry to be earnest and focused on the policies here, but in terms of
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china, north korea, saudi arabia, iran, there are policies that trump is overseeing that reflect this. it's just not straight. there's deceit in all of these policies, and that's what we're going to be living with for the next months and years, not just his rhetoric. >> and the question is on his foreign policy. we have all been shocked by it. we talked about whether it's contempt for nato, contempt for democratically-elected leaders, his attraction to vladimir putin. will republicans will checked by election results if the results reject trump's politics? >> those republicans haven't checked the president, so we'll see if they check them out. let's turn to the political report and talk about the here
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and now at 7:14 in the morning here on the east coast. 26 states have polls open right now. viewers guide for people waking up. where should we look 12 hours from now? >> let's do the math. democrats need in to win only 8 of the 30 races we rate as toss ups to win control of the house. the magic number is 23. there are 16 seats that are leaning or likely to go democratic. a lot of them are open seats because we have a red exodus in the house. we have 41 seats without an incumbent on the ballot. that's helping fuel this blue wave, especially in the states where democrats are really lo looking for big gains. and to me, what stands out about the house map is that democrats could get all 23 of the seat thas need for control from five states. california, there are seven vulnerable seats there. pennsylvania, another six. and four each in illinois, new jersey and virginia. virginia is where i'm going to be looking first. >> your number that was put out
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was 75 competitive house races, 70 of those are held by republicans. only 5 democrats. that's astounding. >> very lopsided list, but the margin is going to matter. we think democrats are the favorites for control. it's not a completely done deal, but if democrats have a small majority, something between 1 in 10 seats, that's what i would call civil war territory. i can name you 10 to 15 democrats who under no circumstances would vote for nancy pelosi for speaker. the democrats i'm meeting running for these vulnerable seats fall into three categories. women who make up a majority of democratic challengers, which is unprecedented, the second is military veterans and the third would be out of work obama people treating 2018 as a job fair. but they are not state legislators or people who have pledged allegiance to the
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hierarchy for a long time. they want a new generation of leadership a lot of them. so it will be fascinating to see how that dynamic plays out. >> as people turn on their tv tonight, 6:00, you're going to be looking at the lexington seat as well as the indiana senate race. then at 7:00, virginia comes in and then florida comes in at 7:00 too. shouldn't you have a really good idea after looking at key precincts in virginia and florida, shouldn't you by. 8:00 unless it's just really close, have a good idea on whether this is going to be a big democratic night or whether republicans are going to hold? >> the question for me is this going to be a true wave where democrats not only win a lot of these upscale suburban republican districts, but also hold on to the red state senate seats and make gains in red house seats. or is it more of a realigning
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where republicans hold their own and democrats only get their gains from those suburbs. >> so what are you looking at in the races before 8:00 if something tips democrats way, you go, okay, this is going to be a blue tsunami tonight. and on the other side of it, what race are you looking at where you're going, wait a minute, there's no democratic momentum. republicans are going to hold the majority. >> i'll be looking at the four virginia races. for democrats to feel good about winning the majority, they probably need to flip two of the four vulnerable seats in virginia. the easiest is going to be barbara kom stock's district in loudoun county. that's a district they should pick up no problem. virginia beach, the second congress gnat district, scott taylor. the 7th district, the guy who beat eric cantor in 2014.
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how does that race go? pure toss up. then you get to the 5th district, which is charlottesville, but it's also rural south side virginia. it's an open seat. it's a generic ballot test between a republican who, by the way, is a big foot enthusiast, and a democrat who -- >> he believes in big foot. >> i can't unsee some of the pictures that were part of his book. the democrat is also very progressive, former investigative journalist, happens to be olivia wild's mom. she's winning, watch out. >> let's talk about the democratic party. andrea mitchell and the friction that may be to come over nancy pelosi. >> nancy pelosi may be signaling already that she would be a short-term interim figure. that may smooth over what david is talking about. when you look at some of these
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candidates, whom i have interviewed, they are women candidates, many of them are military veterans, former cia officer, but the fact is that they owe nothing to nobody. and women have fuelled the money. the first time the democrats have outspent republicans in these districts and 58% of that money is coming from women donors. it is a complete change in the financing of campaigns. these are not from outside groups. these are smaller donations. these people do not owe anything to democratic super pacs. bloomberg pointed out in a nice touch by the republicans in the last minute and one of the texas races, but. >> what about the majority leader of the house? he had a tweet that had bloomberg in it. why don't they put the star of
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david on there, mr. majority leader? >> for a lot of us, i grew up in a very observant jewish family. for a lot of us growing up in those years, after world war ii, our parents would talk about the holocaust and say that was over there. i remember as a child going to yankee stadium and my mother would say there's 60,000 people here. think of 6 million jews. that's mom being paranoid. but a lot of people at my age are thinking of anti-semitism being accepted in american society. we're thinking about it in a very different way. that larger is what people of color are experiencing every single day. this migrant march, the invasion, as the president describes it, has unsettled a lot of people. i would not be surprised if what we see in georgia and other places is very different.
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even if stacey abrams doesn't win, there's the georgia 6th, there are other georgia house districts that may pick up seats, odds and ends, in places because of andrew gillum and the other candidates. >> some of the surprise races, in georgia we're watching that race. some of the districts in suburban houston, these are places that are changing fast demographically and where trump's brand doesn't work. >> talk about the governorships. everybody is focused on georgia and florida. but there are a lot of governorships out there and these governors are going to help shape the gerrymandered congressional districts for a decade. >> that's right. >> so what are you looking at there? democrats look like they are going to pick up quite a few? >> governorships koub bigger than the house. because they could pick up six to eight governorships tonight. and keep in mind, the biggest surprises are going to be in the midwest it looks like michigan
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and illinois are in the bag for democrats. they have an excellent shot in ohio, wisconsin, they look like the favorites in florida. those are the big prizes. now the irony on the governors map is the most popular governors in the country are from some of the bluest states like phil scott in vermont, larry hogan in maryland, and voters love the fact that they serve as these checks on these very liberals. >> a name that none of us ever talk about, charlie baker is a republican who is in the 70s. his approval rating is in the 70s in massachusetts. if there is a post trump apocalypse where the republican party, charlie baker, that's incredible. >> but at the same time, he's repudiated trump over and over again on national issues. some of the least popular governors in the country from
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some of the reddest states where there's been prices over school funding, teacher salaries, medicaid expansion. they are probably the slight favorites in kansas. >> i asked this it question. we have been looking at the numbers in dallas. you have been talking about it. others have been talking about it. the voter turnout, the early voting in some of these formerly republican areas that this year are breaking democratic are massive. >> he has got to win massive margins with suburban voters because i don't think hispanic turnout is matching the enthusiasm there. now dallas county could turn into a blod bath for the republican party. that's the number one county running closest to the 2016 percentage in terms of early
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voting turnout. travis county is the second one, which is austin. so those are good signs for democrats. but again, hispanic turnout a problem. there's some fear in those communities over voting. >> there's fear of having any connection to the government. you vote when you're legal or not legal, you're afraid of government right now. >> listen to dave describe the states where they could win the governorships. those are the states that made donald trump president of the united states. so if they flip their governor's mansion, it will tell you a lot. >> don't forget south dakota. and new hampshire. >> if donald trump wakes up tomorrow morning and sees that democrats have won in a route, again, they may not. it may be a big republican night. but if some of the numbers hold and democrats sweep in minnesota and wisconsin, michigan, ohio,
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pennsylvania, he will have a real choice to make because he will see basically his pathway to reelection blown up. >> well, dave, thank you very much for being on this morning. bob and andrea stay with us. still ahead, the view from inside the committees trying to win control of congress. we'll talk to the communications director for the house republican campaign arm matt gorman and senate democrat chris van holtland. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. - meet the ninja foodi, the pressure cooker that crisps, with the best of pressure cooking and air frying all in one. with our tendercrisp technology, you can quickly cook food,
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mr. president, several of the networks declined to run your immigration ad that you posted last week. do you have a response? >> i don't know about it. you're telling me something i don't know about. we have a will the of ads. >> why did you run that ad? >> a lot of things are offensive. your questions are offensive a lot of times. >> did you see what i put on this week? did you see not the rough guy screaming at the judge that he's going to kill everybody, but the second one wearing a hat. he wanted to come into our country but he asked for a pardon. what is it for? they have it in spanish. murder. >> president trump reenacts portions of the racist ad they claim to know nothing about just hours earlier.
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what are you hoping for? >> something that donald trump has given the country that few people have ever given the country. he's gotten millions of people to vote who have never voted before. they have already voted early voting is in incredibly significant. and i think if you look at mr. trump's rallies and you go to his rallies, the sense is and this is anecdotal obviously, the sense is that people at his rallies are not really early voters. but the early voting numbers are such that i think the democrats are going to have a very, very big night. >> bob woodward, what are you looking at today? what are you hoping for? >> there's not a great deal of hope. if republicans do well or hold
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their own, what are they voting for? are they voting for the chaos and nervous breakdown in the white house or are they voting for local candidates and it can be some of both. if you listen to enough of this, it's evident, you're hedging on this. you think it's going a certain way, but leave the door wide open for going the other way. and i think that's the right approach because no one knows what trump's emotional impact he's having on people. lots of people don't like it. there are a lot of people who do like it. the spectacle what michael steele was calling the drama in the white house is very attractive to lots of people. so we are in the big question mark zone.
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>> still ahead with control of congress and governors mansions at stake today, we'll talk to two officials from opposite sides of the aisle who both work to get candidates from their party elected. "morning joe" will be right back. seriously, what is this? new listerine® ready! tabs™ aren't gum, mints, or marbles.
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welcome back to "morning joe" on an election day. joining us is communications director for the national republican congressional committee matt gorman. thank you for being on with us. we appreciate it. >> thank you so much. >> you have a great jobs report from the president's perspective and the country's perspective on friday. that would be front and center and yet you have the president on the campaign trail talking about the caravan and trying to motivate people to the polls. do you believe it's a threat to our national security? >> first of all, let me say we have been talking about both. the economy is front and center issue for us. last week we released 15 ads on the economy. however, immigration is as well. we have run ads over the past few months in states that aren't even close to the southern border because it resinates with voters. in minnesota, pennsylvania and in districts hillary clinton won in orange county. so again, we have won the immigration issue since june. so as we talk about this, it
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rips up our base, but appeals to swing voters. >> that's the point. you have put so much time, money and energy into focusing on the economy, but the president's messaging trumps all of that. do you wish he would focus more on the economy and less on the caravan? >> there's so many more issues. we're also talking about candidates' records when they support singer payer. there's a couple candidates who have anti-set mettic views. there are some themes, but it's very district specific. >> do you think the caravan is a threat o to national security? >> i think we have to protect our borders. we need to make sure that democrats, we need to call them out for that as well. >> based on what you have learned about the caravan, who is in it? what's the threat? >> we have to be aware of who is coming to our borders. >> but what about in this
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specific group, what's the threat? >> again, we have to be sure we know who is coming into our country. and we have to know that our borders are secure. >> you think sending troops to the border is the right play? >> we're not a policy organization. our goal is electing candidates across the country who support border security. some may support troops going to the border. some aren't. we're focused on maintaining the majority so we can secure our borders, keep the tax cuts we talked about and protect against democrats plans to abolish i.c.e. >> how did you think it's going to turn out tonight? any predictions? >> i think first of all, as david said, we're watching kentucky at 6:00 p.m. a highly touted race. that's going to tell us a lot tonight. the state of minnesota is a bell weather as well. two district republicans are on defense in the suburbs. two seats where democrats are on defense in the rural area. but the name of the game and what we have seen so far is volatility. we have had to make small
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investments in the seats that lean republican to prevent some surprises. but both parties had to go back into seat where is they thought they were dead and buried. we went back to a couple seats in texas and florida. so things are volatile. got to keep the foot on the gas. >> what's a victory for you? what will tomorrow morning will you wake up and throw your clenched fists in the air and say we did it. we did it. is a majority of one a huge victory for you? do you need more? what do you consider a win tomorrow morning? >> keeping majority, period. >> a loss if you lose majority by one, that's a loss? >> again, that's our goal from day one when i started this job. keeping the majority. that's what we're focussed on. that's what we're going to do. >> thank you very much. we should note that we tried repeatedly to have the chair of
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the nrcc on the show, but we were unable to get that scheduled. >> we have had steve on before. he was the one that came out and was critical of king. >> but joining us now is his counterpart, the chair of the democratic congressional campaign committee. thank you very much for being on. congressman, what's this election about for democrats? >> this is an election about putting people first. we have been very clear about what democrats stand for. we stand for the people. we have been reaching out to people all across america talking about how democrats will move very aggressively in the beginning of next year to lower prescription drug prices, invest in infrastructure and clean up washington, d.c. do something about the outside money and gerrymandering. but this election is truly bye-bye been about our
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candidates with records of service across america. >> so congressman, let me ask you. this. president has launched the campaign by talking about a lot of mexicans being rapists that are kming to this country. he called hispanics breeders. he's attacking this mystery caravan making things up by the day talking about it, being funded by george soros and the democrats and they are coming up here and stereotypes you could actually do. and yet we keep hearing reports that hispanic early voting is low. are we going to look at this tomorrow morning and ask why more hispanic voters didn't come out, why more latino voters didn't come out? >> the president is saying a lot of them and a lot of them are ugly and disgusting. but. i saw numbers this morning that
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latino turnout is up over 150% above 2014. african-american voting is up 136%. millennial turnout is over 250%. i'm encouraged by the numbers we're seeing across america. there's a reason why our committee, the congressional campaign committee invested almost $30 million in our year of engagement finishing recently with reaching out to latino voters in english and spanish. we're going to make sure we're doing everything we can all the way through tonight to reach out to voters and we'll continue to do it after election day. >> congressman, most people are familiar with president trump's immigration policy and it's pretty ugly, as most people realize. but one question hangs out there continuously. what's the democrats' position on immigration? >> look, our democratic leaders have been very clear, as well as our candidates. we support a comprehensive immigration reform package
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that's tough and fair, that encourages people to come forward, but to make sure they are getting in line. that they are paying taxes. we also know that a strong kme kpre hencive immigration perform package would be positive for the economy. our candidates have been clear from the very beginning. they support strong policies that lead to strong, smart and fair border security policy. so the president's attacks against democrats are simply false here. democrats also want to do something that the president is not talking about. that's working in a bipartisan basis across the aisle. that's the only way to get this done. if the bills go to the floor, we'll be able to get 250 votes and would have happened this year with republicans in charge. >> part of what you just said, part of your democrats immigration policy is you're in favor of people standing in line. what does that mean? >> not standing in line. what i mean is there's a formal
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process to be able to make application, to be able to have a path to citizenship as well. that's what we mean. there's a process forward to fix the broken um grags system. that's what i'm talking about. >> congressman, thank you so much for being with us. we appreciate it. >> thanks for having us. everyone, get out and vote today. >> everyone get out and vote. >> what are you look at tonight? >> i'm looking at the virginia seats. clearly, at 6:00 we're looking at whether joe donly pulls this out. some i talked to are worried about indiana. that that is not -- was not trending the way they wanted to see it. but on the house side, pennsylvania has some really interesting races. there are a couple of those seats, even a possible challenge to mike kelly out in the scranton area. so pennsylvania has a couple seats. florida, you know so well. lexington we have talked about in kentucky and whether or not
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amy mcgrath has a chance at that seat. you'll know pretty early. when we talk about georgia, what happens with stacey abrams and whether she can close the gap and pull this thing off despite all the voter suppression she's ledalleged and all the ways tha kemp can hold off voting, bad weather is not great down in the southeast. but what that means in terms of house seats. you could get a couple house seats pulled in by some of these high profile minority candidates in florida and georgia. even if they don't quite make it. >> it's interest iing. you say despite positive public polling for don lee, you're hearing concerns. same thing in montana. i'm hearing concerns despite some positive polls for the
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democrats. real concerns there. >> i us don't think people know who is actually turning out. we really don't know enough about the early voting and who are these people. and if this is a different electorate, there's no way the polling can predict. >> we'll all be back on the air in 24 hours together for our show in front of a live studio audience here at rockefeller center. we look forward to having you. it will be very interesting to see how this all goes. sdwl nobody knows. nobody knows what the makeup of the electorate is going to be today. >> thank you. still to come on this election day, "hardball"'s chris matthews joins us onset. we'll go live to arizona. "morning joe" is coming right back. - [announcer] the typical vacuum head can struggle
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joining us now from prescott, arizona, von hilliard who's been all over the campaign trail for months. he hasn't been home in years at this point. election day is here. congratulations on arriving there in one piece. that senate race is a dead heat right now. which way does it look like it may break? >> reporter: about 75-80% of the electorate in arizona in the senate race have already cast their votes. the voter makeup has been about a 7.4% advantage for republicans. in the last three midterms, it was a plus 12% advantage for republicans.
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donald trump won here by 3 percentage points. it's a tale of the campaigns kyrsten sinema and martha mcsally have run. martha mcsally was the tucson rather independent swing district congresswoman who decided to stand solidly behind president trump this this campaign. donald trump jr. was just here on the campaign trail with here this week. you don't see john mccain or jeff flake in her campaign ads. compare that to the democrat kir kyrsten sinema. why not martha mcsally? >> i'll be candid. i'm a registered republican
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who's mostly embarrassed by the republican party at this point. so i'm tired of the fighting. i'm tired of the nonsense. i think america is great and i think that we don't need a hat to say make it great again. it is great. so i'm tired of the bullying. and i don't feel like kyrsten sinema has jumped into that. i think she stayed on top of it and ahead of it and i respect that. >> reporter: these are john mccain voters. john mccain won two years ago by 13 percentage points. donald trump won by just three. these are the voters that say they are not going to vote for the republican in this race. they're going to vote for democrat chrkyrsten sinema. >> you said that republicans usually average a plus 12
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advantage in early voting. this year they're averaging a plus 7.4. trump won by three points a couple years ago. was he plus 12 in early voting as well a couple years ago? >> reporter: no. he was at about plus eight percentage points. i think what we're going to pay attention to is the independents in this race here. independents here make up a third of the electorate. they are just shy of topping republican voter registration here in the state. in our last nbc news poll, kristin cinema had a 26% advantage over martha mcsally. >> thank you so much. two things. again, you never know which way these things are going to break. i remember a lot of people saying two years ago that because there were so many
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independents in florida that democrats were going to win it. no. donald trump won the state. we have a lot of independents that seem to be trending democratic and also those undecided. if you've been a congressman for 15 years and 10 or 12% are undecided against you, that's not a good sign. >> yeah. if you've been there 16 years, nobody's undecided about you. still ahead, voters beginning to line up across the country right now. here's a live look in missouri where claire mccakacaskill is ie fight of her political life. today, we will steal christmas in style. ♪ if i'm gonna become santa,
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i shouldn't say this because i do eventually want to unite. but the fact is we're driving them crazy. we're driving them crazy. they don't know what to do. they're going loco. hopefully it's going to all come together someday like a beautiful puzzle. >> is there anything that you regret that you wish you could just take back and redo? >> i would like to have a much softer tone. i feel to a certain extent i have no choice, but maybe do i and maybe i could have been softer from that standpoint. but i want to get things done. >> that's beautiful. i should have changed my tone. it's unbelievable.
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it's like me saying, you know what, i should have actually paid attention in math class in seventh grade and gone to m.i.t. and i should have been a physics professor. too late! welcome back to "morning joe." this is a big, big moment for mika brzezinski. her hero is here. we have mike barnicle. mike, she loves you, but that's not what this is all about. we have host of "kasie dc" on msnbc nbc. and chris matthews. >> what are you going to say tonight?
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what's going to be your opening line? >> you didn't watch last night, did you? >> i did. your closing quote was amazing. >> every night. she watches every night. >> let me explain. we always have a godfather reference to everything. somebody has to pay for sonny, remember? i think trump's finally going to pay for access hollywood tonight. he said that was just locker room talk. then two years of this guy, this
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is who he is. what he said about the candidate down in georgia abrams. the black woman is unqualified, low iq. and the white women, it's like oh they're ugly. this is a president of the united states talking like this. >> we wouldn't allow our children to act this way. and yet there are people who cheer this sort of behavior. you remember mike tyson, who always said everybody has a game plan until they're punched the first time. tyson went into a ring, he's like a bully. the first time he got hit by buster douglas, he didn't know how to respond.
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and everybody is still fighting the last war. they think donald trump has some magic up his sleeve. no. he's a bully. if he gets punched back together, we're going to see how he responds. >> there are a lot of white men out there, non-college guys who like him. you can't keep working the smaller percentage of the population. look at these rallies. you can see who the people are. and women, your message about know your worth. there's another aspect. women's values are different than men's in many ways. women are much more attuned to health issues, what the insurance covers, what it doesn't cover.
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>> look at these numbers right now. we've had a gender gap for a very long time. there's never been anything like this. it's hard to see how republican candidates in swing districts survive that. >> you know, that doesn't even tell us the percentage of women compared to men who are actually going to show up to vote. i have to tell you, when i was out on the road, you run into people as you're walking down the street. the women who a person who i talked to, all of them were voting. all of them were incredibly engaged. i bumped into one woman at a panera bread who had held a fund-raiser for her democratic candidate. she'd never done anything like that before. >> the women's marched
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galvanized quickly and they were massive and world wide. women stepped up in the face of the trump patresidency. and the question is will they step up in massive numbers today and speak for themselves? >> we kept hearing reports throughout the day of a lot of women in northern virginia lined up in the rain. nobody was moving. i suspect that's what we're going to see today all across the country. >> to chris's point, women by far carry the load in families, in terms of running the family, in terms of shopping for the family and many of them do it also holding down full-time jobs. they are part of an everyday domestic family's life much more than husbands and fathers are. the idea that finally the bill comes due for things like access hollywood and when you put that on the table combined with the purely racist, incredible
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language employed by the president of the united states and you look at the long lines of people waiting to vote, most of them you look around and the majority are women. >> i'm so stunned the president said he should have watched his tone. it's a stunning admission in ways. it sound like a mea culpa from somebody who never apologizes for anything. it suggests to me that behind the scenes the messages he's getting for how tonight's going to go are not good. >> do we have any mimages comin from the voting booths? can we put some up?
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they had begun to vote in new hampshire at midnight as they always do. his men had canvassed new hampshire days before, sending his autographed pictures each of the 12 registered voters in the village. they knew they had five votes for certain there, that nixon had five votes for certain and that two were still undecided. yet it was worth the effort. i never wake up on an election day where those words don't come to my mind, the majesty and the magic of those words that
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capture the invisible process talking about republicans voting early, but then the working class guys get off of work, the whistle blows. >> you're good at this, joe. the country is republican until 6:00 p.m. and then the whistle blows and it turns democrat. >> that's reversed now. >> what is it, 6 ye8 years aftee wrote that in 1960. and today the magic of america is right in front of our eyes. it plays out all day long today, the only country truly in the world where people get up in the morning and have a chance to define what they want their country to be all about. >> and this morning we are still donald trump's country from
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2016. this time tomorrow morning we will be another country. it may be a country that confirms everything that donald trump has done over the past two years or, if history is any guide, we will see once again a country that checks the excesses, not only of donald trump but twice checked the excesses of barack obama, twice checked the excesses of ronald reagan, checked the excesses of lbj. this is the ultimate constitutional check and balance. >> indeed. let's not forget that hillary clinton won the popular vote at the end of the day by more than 3 million. there are more people in this country who opposed donald trump in that election if you count them simply by the numbers. and there were so many people that stayed home. as much as donald trump's
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winning was a shock to all of us on election night in 2016, for a lot of voters it was a huge wakeup call. >> let gee's go to the board. >> we were talking about the house. we thought we would take you through the senate. this is basically the battleground, new jersey, north dakota. in new jersey men dendez ahead double digits. we're going to get our first return in indiana. they start out very close to 50. democrats with a lot farther to go. when most of indiana closes at 6:00, absolutely must win for
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democrats. joe donnelly has to hang onto that seat in indiana. 7:00 we're going to start getting numbers out of florida. the final poll there shows a close race but bill nelson has been slightly ahead in the final polls. then you get to tennessee. they had high hopes there over the summer with phil bredesen. the most recent polls, the ther advantage to blackburn. that puts the republicans on the cusp of retaining their majority. you move onto west virginia. manchin in a trump plus 42 state has been holding his own. democrats need that to hold up tonight. then you get to texas. every poll has had cruz ahead there, but beto o'rourke in
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striking distance. if that goes to ted cruz, that would probably do it, republicans retain the senate. but if tennessee or texas or north dakota provides a surprise tonight, in oand one of those t end up going democratic, for the sake of argument, if tennessee goes to the democrats, that would up end the math for the night. from there, the republicans are now sort of 50. you go to missouri. close race. our final poll has claire mccaskill slightly up. if she hangs on, you get to montana. scant polling but tester led in most of what we have. arizona and nevada, you have two republican seats where democrats think they have their best chances at pickups. sinema was ahead by a couple
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points in our final poll. if they could knock off dean heller in nevada that could give democrats 51. they need everything to break their way on the senate side. you lose tennessee, you lose texas, that would pretty much do it. that's what to look for tonight on the senate side. >> steve, missouri, tennessee, indiana seem to be tough pickups for democrats. i mean, there's going to have to be a pretty strong blue wave for those to break democrat? >> i think right now if you're a democrat and you want to be talking about the senate right now, what you've got to believe in was there was a late break
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nationally. we've seen hints in some of these final battleground polls and house races. new jersey is a good example. there was a poll yesterday that put menendez up 15 points. if he's up in double digits in new jersey, does that suggest this race has moved a couple points? if everything does move a couple points in the final days of this race then you look at a state like tennessee and say if the democrats suddenly got a three-point swing across the country, does that put tennessee in play? missouri, claire mccaskill barely ahead out there. if there was a uniform swing, does that put her ahead. you've got to be seeing a big wave on the house side. if you are seeing that on the house side, then i think we can
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start having that conversation at the senate side. >> missouri to me is the be bellweather of the night. if claire mccaskill hangs on, it's going to be a real repudiation of the trump s presidency. that's where he's been rallying. that's where he's been pushing his message about immigration. this, to me, is the race that will tell us the broad story tonight. >> not only a repudiation of donald trump, but a repudiation of -- claire mccaskill -- crazy democrats -- talk about a tough, tough street fighter. this is somebody who had
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contributes funnel money to todd akin's campaign, denied it until the second he got nominated and then she says, maybe i did that. she has pulled up her sleeves and has pummelled what she considers the extremes in her party. it upset some of them. guess what? she doesn't care. i'll be honest with you. this is such a red state, i can't believe claire mccaskill is even within striking position. it's unbelievable. >> i worry about donnelly for that reason. indiana was so strong for trump. how many people can change their minds in two years? how many are capable of changing their minds? trump knows exactly where the frontier of this campaign is. he knows it's indiana and missouri. he went out there twice to indiana. he knows it's the cutting edge. it's donnelly.
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if mcckacaskill survives, he's lost. >> what campaign manager would say we're going to send you and sean hannity and rush limbaugh to help persuade voters at the end. that's insanity. >> napoleon said we're out of troops, we're out of cavalry, ♪ more fl send in more flags. those guys are flags. >> in your closing week of the campaign, you're trying to pull in the undecideds. >> the wildcard about donald trump, it seems to me, is always his lack of discipline. he gets right up to the edge and you sort of know what he's going to say at these rallies and he'll go right through the trip wire. last night with sean hannity and everything he talks about and when he really gets going with the wild, racist, crazy language, especially the violent descriptions of who democrats are, they want the bring crime
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into your neighborhood and everything like that, he tends to get to two issues sublimin subliminalsublimina subliminally. one is the separation of children from their families along the border. that's still out there. that still resonates. >> that goes back to women. >> the second one is what happened in pittsburgh, which is still out there, still resonating. >> i think women have a stronger reaction to events like that. again, it's the bill coming due for separating children from their families. it's the bill coming due for not speaking out when pipe bombs are sent to trump critics and former presidents and former vice president and democratic officials. it's the bill coming due when not enough is done as a response to slaughter, the worstsynagogu. it's just time for women to step up because they have a visceral reaction to situations like
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this. and a president who seems to lead us toward this type of violence, not away from it. >> even afterwards, goes through pittsburgh and comes back and what's he tweeting about? i wasn't treated with sufficient respect from the press. if a ceo did that, they'd be fired that day. if our children did that, we'd pick up the phone and say you have humiliated yourself today. >> you know, to exactly that point, joe, if any of our children did that, what would you say to them? i can tell you what the word would be. you'd look at them and say, what is wrong with you? >> i think all elections are about yes or no. i think you're going to hear most of the country say no. there will be a red wave out west and in the dopeep south. but i think there's going to be a big no led by women, a big no to the sentiment.
quote
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>> we have senator chris van holland from maryland. did democrats do everything they could do? >> democrats have done everything we can in every part of this country. in the senate as steve kornacki was pointing out, we have a very difficult political battlefield. this is the toughest political battlefield that any party has fa faced in 60 years. one of the big stories here is the states that you're not talking about that republicans said they were going to win, all those mid western states that trump won, republicans were predicting they were going to win a super majority, pick up eight seats in the senate. not happening. instead they're having to compete in these deep red states that trump won big. so that is really the story of this election cycle in the
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senate. >> what's your response? this morning a lot of people are waking up. they've heard for the past two, three, four weeks that a caravan is coming to invade the united states. they've heard that democrats are behind it. they've heard that democrats want open borders, that democrats want these potential immigrants to come in, get welfare, to vote, et cetera. you've heard all the arguments. we know they're all lies. so don't respond to those lies. respond instead to this question. what is the democrat party's position on stopping illegal immigration? what are you telling voter this is morning as they go out and make a decision on whether, hey, do i vote for this democrat or is she really going to be supporting open borders? >> let me be very clear. democrats oppose illegal immigration, people coming into
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this country should come legally. the president is absolutely lying when he says democrats want open borders. we want strong border security. that's been part of every bipartisan immigration reform bill we've had. we are against separating moms from their small kids at the border. we're against these outrageous statements. the president talked about opening fire on unarmed people, which his own military had to tell them, that's not what we do in the united states military. so strong border security, absolutely. people coming to the united states should be coming here legally. but separating moms from their kids, that's not the way to do it. >> we were just going through scenarios for democrats. if there's any chance for them to get the senate tonight, these three states, north dakota, texas, tennessee, democrats needing to get one of those just
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to be in the game to potentially get a majority. between those three, where is your best shot tonight? >> look, steve, it's all about turnout, which is what everybody's been saying this morning. these are very tough states. you know that. these are states that trump won big time and yet we have incredibly strong candidates in each of them. we all know that the path to a senate democratic majority is extremely narrow. if you're a poker player, you're talking about drawing to an inside straight. i think it's just important to remind people that republicans are not really in a strong position at all in those midw t midwestermidwes midwestern states that trump won in.
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when trump's proposing something bad for their states, they'll oppose him, which is why the health care issue has been so important. because for the last two years, trump and republicans have tried to strip away protections for people with preexisting conditions. you guys were talking about arizona. martha mcsally was leading the charge in the house of representatives to strip away those protections for people with preexisting conditions. now she's just lying about her record. people of arizona don't like that. >> heshe's also saying that heah care is not an issue that people of arizona care about as much as the caravan. we shall see tonight. thanks for being with us. chris matthews, what should the democratic message be on
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immigration? the >> i do think that the way get things done is you get the other side to do the heavy lifting for you. if you've got a big latino community, you don't want to be the hard guy. but if you want a comprehensive bill, there's got to be enforcement. we've got to stop till leghe il hiring. the democrats get the path to citizenship, the republicans get the enforcement, you put the deal together and it works. you never hear the democrats talk about enforcement. in the end it's got to be a deal. that's what politicians used to do, make chris matthews, thank much. >> what's going to be your opening line tonight? >> i think i'm going to be right about what's going to happen. i'm rooting for joe donnelly. >> when your show starts, we'll be in the thick of it.
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>> we're not going to have shows tonight. we're all together as a team. i think we're going to know pretty quickly about indiana. trump went there twice in four days. he knows where the frontier of action is right now. it's those couple of states. we're going to look at the guy the raccoon eyes thing he does with the sun. i don't think he's too healthy. he's gain weight. barney frank said you eat a lot of hamburgers when you're campaigning. >> you do. >> trump needs to get in shape. it's hurting him. >> joe notice he's very orange.
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>> valerie jerrett will be here. and later one of the congressional candidates in battle ground, arizona. - [announcer] the typical vacuum head can struggle with large debris and stuck-on dust, so shark invented duoclean, replacing the front wall with a rotating soft brush. while deep cleaning carpets, two brush rolls pick up large particles with ease, make quick work of stuck-on dust, giving hard floors a polished look, and fearlessly devour piles. shark duoclean technology, designed to do more on carpets and floors, available in corded and cord-free vacuums, and only available from shark. on carpets and floors, available in corded
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[ready forngs ] christmas? no, it's way too early to be annoyed by christmas. you just need some holiday spirit! that's it! this feud just went mobile. with xfinity xfi you get the best wifi experience at home. and with xfinity mobile, you get the best wireless coverage for your phone. ...you're about to find out! you don't even know where i live... hello! see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he. the character of this country is on the ballot. who we are is on the ballot. what kind of -- [ applause ] >> what kind of politics we expect is on the ballot, how we conduct ourselves in public life is on the ballot, how we treat
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other people is on the ballot. going out there, you're going to make sure that people vote to start making things better. and when you do that, then the spirit of america is going to shine. >> that is part of former president barack obama's closing pitch as he repeatedly and explicitly criticized his successor in the white house. >> you can tell with that voice, not in mid season form. hadn't been doing that an awful lot. >> good to hear from him. joining us now former senior advisor to president barack obama, valerie jerrett. >> i've missed you guys. >> we've missed you. >> how are you doing? >> i'm great. >> how are you feeling today? >> i feel pretty good. you just heard the president's ras py voice. that's because he's been out there campaigning so hard.
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i was with him in florida. the energy on the ground is tremendous. >> we're looking to a big day of coverage here on msnbc. here onset the president and ceo of the messina group and campaign manager for barack obama's 2012 reelection campaign jim messi na. also jeff greenfield. >> i've actually come to talk about among other things, suppose the probabilities are right, that in fact we have a republican senate, democratic house. it would occur to me that if you looked at history to tell you what's going to happen after, you'd be looking at the wrong
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place. historically clinton got clobbered, kind of worked with newt gingrich. obama got clobbered. harry truman got clobbered and built a bipartisan foreign policy. if you think that's going to happen after the midterms, i would suggest you're probably wrong, because history as we saw two years ago is on vacation. you've got a president who will accept no responsibility for what happens if his par si loty. he'll claim george soros smuggled 5 million people from the caravan to vote. you've got a democratic majority if it happens in the house. if you look at those committee chair chair chai chairs, these are the veterans more liberal. you've got a republican caucus. who's going to lose tonight, the more moderate republicans, which means that the freedom caucus is
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going to be stronger in the house in january than now. that's a formula for what history says will be work together across party lines. i don't think that's in the dna. >> one, this will be the fifth consecutive election where the polls are all wrong. i think if you're looking at polls right now, disregard all of them because they're artificially tamping down democratic turnout. they're looking at this saying the youth never vote, minorities never vote. i'm talking to pollsters who are saying there's not going to be this big wave. if there is a wave it's not going to be a blue wave. it will being a pink wave. this is about women voters. >> why do you feel like the pollsters are artificially tamping down democratic turnout? >> for two reasons. one, because they got burned in 2016.
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>> they're always fighting the last war. >> this is why polls suck. and this is why you really need data. the data is millions of americans in these battleground states have been voting. the only interesting question tonight is did democrats just get the usual voters to vote early or did they turn out real new voters? you look at the stacey abrams race. that will be the race to see. kyrsten sinema, if she wins tonight, it will be because she turned out new voters who typically don't vote in the midterms. can democrats go back to the 2006 rahm emanuel model and win some seats in rural america that they don't usually win and can we hold these red state senate seats? the seat that i'm most worried
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about for democrats is my home state of montana where trump has been four times including twice in the last week, trump's approval rating 55%. if john tester and joe donnelly win tonight, you're going to have a massive democratic wave. >> tester has been leading in a few of the polls, just like donnelly has been leading in a few of the polls. i've heard from people on the democratic side in montana. they're concerned about how that's breaking. i think andrea said she heard the same thing out of indiana. so we'll see. >> valerie, jeff was saying history is on vacation. i think also so too is the truth. we have a president who lies like something we have never seen before in our lifetime, perhaps in history. lies and racism that is unchecked by his administration, unchecked by his republican counterparts in congress for the most part and even supported by some of his friends in the media arm of his presidency, which
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appears to be fox news. what do you think this election is about today? >> i think you got it just about right, which is that both the policies and the rhetoric that have come out of this administration over the last couple of years have been profoundly and deeply troubling. they don't reflect the core values of our country. if i have a young child right now, i'd turn off the television. i wouldn't want them to see the rhetoric and hate. it's fear mongering. i think that can be a powerful force, but the force that is stronger than that is the will of the informed electorate. i've been trying to go around the country and encourage people to actually pay attention to the issues, pay attention to the values at stake and vote those values. our ability to vote gives us a voice and that voice gives us power. i have been encouraged by the number of people who are getting involved for the first time, people who are going things they
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don't traditionally do. my 90-year-old mother had a fund-raiser for this terrific young superstar out of naperville, illinois. my mother hasn't done that since president obama ran for office in 2012. >> i was going to ask jim, how much do you think if democrats win big tonight, how much is it up to organizing work on the ground that the parties have done and how much of it is organic? >> a lot of it is organic. midterm elections are about referendums on the president. that said, i've never seen democratic challengers outraise incumbents in every single battleground seat. there is a chance tomorrow as we
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look at the presidential election in 2020 that democrats hold every single governor seat in every presidential battleground. that changes everything. you ask george bush and al gore whether it was important to have the republicans own governor ship in 2000 in florida. if we own all these things, president trump's chances to get reelected just dropped. >> it also means reapportionment changes 15-20 seats in the next election. the startling thing for me, if i may say this, if trump had run on the economy and said, you know, i came here, i told you i could make things better, he would exaggerate. look at the economy. it's almost as if donald trump provoked either intentionally or out of some weird psychological need, provoked the reaction that you folks are talking about. it didn't have to be the case
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that 90-year-old women have decided to get back in this game. and by turning up the heat the way he did with outrageously racist statements, that ad that fox news refused to run after a while, it's almost as if he said, why should i run like everybody else on a good economy, i'm donald trump. >> jim, you tell me, you know more about this than i do. but it seems like from reading history, the mistake that every president makes is -- and donald trump in spades -- is they look at their pathway to the presidency and they say nobody believed i was ever going to get here. everybody was wrong. they told me if i did a, b, c, d, e, f, g, i would lose. i did it. hook look at me.
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even george h.w. bush, when he was challenged in his 92 race and he was about to lose, he said if you're so gd smart, then why am i the president. every president makes that mistake and donald trump believes because his white, in my opinion, racist approach to 2016. he thought it was going to work for the rest of his life. >> what idiot campaign manager on their side thought this was a good idea to end the campaign on caravans when your swing voters are suburban women sitting out here trying to make a decision and instead they run these racist ads that do nothing but goose turnout that they've already goosed. they're bleeding swing voters. when democrats take the house
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tonight, it's because of bad decisions. >> valerie, did you ever think having witnessed firsthand and been a part of helping the first african-american become president of the united states, to now where we're at separating children from our parents at the border, and we have a president who is talking about sending 15,000 troops to the boarder to keep brown people from coming in. >> it's profoundly troubling to me. our democracy has always been hard and messy. i think that it's kind of a last gasp of people trying to hold onto power and using every possible measure to scare people to hold onto it. but i'm also so optimistic because i've seen people around the country who are getting involved and who care about our country and are willing to roll up their sleeves. the number of women running for office now compared to four or five years ago has gone up
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exponentially. today is about turnout. it's about making it easy for people to get to the polls. lyft, for example, is offering discount rides. 15 million people diplomdn't vo because of transportation in the last election. it's all about removing the barriers. i think these laws that are suppressing the vote are cowardly and are being contested. and as stacey abrams has demonstrated, the ones in georgia were rolled back by the courts. we should be making it easy for people to vote. it's nonsense to use this horrible rhetoric to suppress the vote and bring out the worst in people. i think that's what's at stake today. >> valerie is optimistic. we're going to break some record as far as voter participation for a midterm election. none of us have seen numbers like this. >> no. >> are you optimistic about
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what's to come? >> i'm always optimistic about what's to come? guess what? it always balances itself out. people always freak out. we tell this story all the time, that in 2018 barack obama got elected. my mom was watching glenn beck every day calling, crying. i go, mom, it's okay, everything is going to be okay. the next year all of my friends on the upper west side were crying. the tea party's taken over. it's the end of the world. it's going to be okay. barack obama gets elected in 2012. i got to go back and start reassuring my mom again. 2014, i've got to assure my friends on up the per west side. 2016, got to reassure everybody. it's going to be okay. mika disagrees with everything i just said. >> look, the president has been
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undermining confidence in the basic institutions that underline our democracy. if you see record turnout in the midterm election, it will also send a message that people believe in the democracy that we have built and that does give me hope. >> all the people said amen. >> thank you both as well. up next, democrats need to flip 23 gop held seats in order to gain control of the house. we'll talk to an arizona republican hoping to win in a district that voted for hillary clinton in 2016. "morning joe" will be right back. (music throughout)
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candidate. republican leah marquez peterson. trump administration great to have you with us this morning. you know as well as i do the most recent polling has you down by double digits in the "new york times" poll. taken a couple of weeks ago. internal polling shows it much closer. what do you have to do to close out the race here. >> you know, i'm not new to this community. i lived here more than 40 years. running against someone who moved here to run, third seat in four years. i'm talking to voters. i have a long-term representation in this community getting things done, working with folks from all different areas of our region. i know rural communities as well as tucson area really well. it's been outreach to voters. that's what will make the dimpx tonig difference tonight. >> what's the decision on sending troops to the border on what he calls a caravan of
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invade invaders. >> border security is top of mind for us in arizona. we' we're living it day in and day out. conversation around sending military to the border is a temporary solution. those that are coming up through the caravan, we don't know who is in the caravan. i don't think anyone has any definitive data. shows folks haven't been vetted. we don't know. temporary use of the military i think something that arizona will support. >> you agree with that decision to send troops to the border. >> i do for a temporary measure. leads to a larger issue. we need to tackle immigration reform. we need to secure our border. when i'm talking to folks throughout our region, that's definitely some of the top of mind issues we're talking about. >> reporter: hi. it's kasie hunt. good to see you this morning. one of the things on the minds of voters is health care. you said you want to get rid of affordable health care acts. do you have a plan to protect people with preexisting
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conditions. >> what i can tell you is a chamber president, most of my members are small businesses. less than 20 employees. the individual marketplace that's currently in place through the affordable care act is not working. my opponent talks act it being her proudest vote. for me is so disconnected from folks throughout southern arizona. we need a plan affordable and provides choices. that's what we were promised when the affordable care act came out. we don't have that. in arizona, unfortunately, we were down to one insurance company this last year. >> we'll be watching your race closely. thanks for being with us in morning 6789 we appreciate it. >> reached out to ann. she's the democrat. we were unable to schedule her interview. jacob, you're in the heart of orange county. which could determine how the
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hours leans after today. what's going on? what are you seeing? early votes are being counted right now. >> you know, i don't think it's an exaggeration to say if it is close out east and the center of the country, house of represent ifr ives could be decided in this warehouse. this is the headquarters of the orange county registrar. they've been counting ballots here actually not just today and going forward. for the last 30 days. hundreds of thousands of 500,000 ballots have come in through this scanner machine. presidential level numbers. not just absentee ballots. 130% increase in in person early voting in this area. so tonight is all going to go down in this warehouse. you're going to have hundreds of people here, sheriff deputies. driving back on little chips. in person votes tonight,
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hundreds of thoughs of them go into a ceiling. shot into an accounting room. absentee process will be put on hold. hundreds of thousands of additional absentee ballots that will come in the days after today. crazy part about this. if it is close here in orange county, if the margins are slim, it could take not one day, not just two days, not just weeks, but up to a month under california law. >> jacob. you are the best. we absolutely love you. we have one final question. do you believe the dodgers losing the way they did in the world series, do you think that's going to sur perdepress e in southern california. >> i will say they're clueless in orange county. they like the angels here.
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i do owe an apology. i said dodgers in five. you're right. red sox in shame. >> one quick question, orange county, briefly describe for the rest of the county how much orange county has changed, the political demographics have changed over the last five or six years. >> there's no better place to look than the 39th congressional district. count instead this building as well. young kim who could be the first korean american woman in congress facing off against. you've got allah tee know. of the seven toss up districts are in california. because of the demographics you're talking about.
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>> thank you as always. we'll be following. >> let's get final thoughts. >> i know we have said it already. i wanted to say it again. women, both the candidates and the voters, women who are never been engage instead the political process before. many have never run for office. i do think it's going to be the test of that. we saw straight out of the gate after donald trump is elected. here we are with first real test. >> literally the world is watching us today. the magic of election day happens in america the way it happens nowhere else in the country. we're going to again, we said this earlier, define what america people want today. >> first as jacob said, california late. some districts not decided: i will be on. you're welcome to join from 2:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. hosting here early into morning joe tomorrow morning. i didn't see a lot of people jumping to that invitation. that's at 2:00 a.m. a lot of people early on looking at kentucky and virginia and also watch the midwest. the states that made donald trump president, wisconsin, ohio, pennsylvania, michigan, do
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they switch back after testing the waters with of donald trump in 2016. >> mika. >> i think today's election is about our humanity. our sense of decency and american values. all on the ballot today. >> i've always said i have confidence in this country. optimistic. and i am because the democracy has checks and balances. the ultimate check is today. where you get to go out, democratic, republican, independent, liberal conservative, this is your chance to put your check on the government. the direction it's been going over the past couple of years. if you like it, great, vote for the candidate of your choice. if you don't like it, this is your opportunity to not only change your government, but change the world. the power is in your hands. >> and after willie geist takes us through the night. tomorrow morning live at studio
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8-:00-h. 2:0 2:00-6:00 a.m. we'll see you tomorrow. that does it for us now. stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage now. >> thank you. good morning. i am stephanie ruhle and this is election day in america. right now the polls are open in 45 states. i voted. did you? more than 35 million voters have already cast their ballots as early or absentee. according to target smart, nbc news analysis, and the stakes could not be higher. we could learn tonight whether the blue wave is real or whether republicans will keep control of congress. we have a fantastic team of road warriors spread out across the country. let's take you first to texas. all eyes on the race for senate. incumbent republican senator ted cruz facing democratic congressman. msnbc joins me live from el

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