tv [untitled] April 13, 2011 11:30am-12:00pm EDT
and. this is i see how it could be a tight race in russia's next presidential election as prime minister that infusion doesn't rule out can be true president to be prepared for the top job in twenty twelve he said everything depends on you can all make a social and political issues in the country. as the suspects linked to the terrorist attack on the capital's metro system our best twelve people were killed
in the blast maybe two hundred injured today has the declared unofficial day of. the global power structure could be shifting with little legs present morning on the u.s. to watch the backs of the world's false describe the commies again ground the heads of russia brazil india china and south africa gathering for the scales the new international financial meltdown the libyan crisis it's. because of alan his guest today whether the brics countries can become the main force in the world economy in the near future not some crosstalk next. kick. start.
the low end welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle the building breaks of the future some of the world's fastest growing emerging markets are meeting in china and they're called the brics brazil russia china india and south africa their plan is simple be an alternative to a western centric world is this an inevitable reality or just wishful thinking. that you can. see. just as the role of the brics in the world today i'm joined by the escobar and from palo he's a journalist and author of obama does globalist on in brussels we have frederick erickson he is a director and a co-founder of the european center for international political economy and in denver he crossed the kind he is a professor of economics at the university of denver gentlemen this is cross talk
that means you can jump in anytime you want to go to you poppy first because you've been on the program before ten years ago we came across this term well known sachs came up with it bricks and it was a well let's hope what it was was a sexy tool to sell the emerging markets stocks well ten years later it has taken on a life of its own and in researching this program it's either lionized or demonized i know where you stand where said we should be lionized or should it be demonized. it should be lionized in fact there are a lot of non bricks they should be part of bricks should be brutes something for something like thirty should be in indonesia should be in south korea should be a word instead the bric countries they started have south africa to have a continental appeal saw all the developing emerging areas of m.t.v. i mean let me jump in here with why should they be in there because of the level of their level of economy or because of certain political orientation or both
political orientation so instead of having another asian like indonesia or south korea or turkey from the middle east in fact they discussed in brazil last year it was supposed to be gripped. with turkey but instead at the last minute said no we need this somebody from africa and obviously they can have nigeria they can have livia ruptures reasons so they chose south africa which is the most powerful african economy so it's a continental wide goalball appeal but the most important thing in my view is what what what should the greeks do so they are very influential inside the g. twenty so major economic decisions have to be supported by brics inside the g twenty and it just seven as we all know is history some people could see that in fact we are living in a g.'s iraq because nobody is in charge of aliasing and i partially subscribe to
this view as well and there is also the political component very important voting of you when the resolution one nine seventy three. the four major brics they abstained they coordinated this ok germany but that south africa did with both already there is a forty year split south africa i mean go to frederick air frederick is the is the brics country more of a still just kind of a sexy selling tool i mean what kind of political influence is about it certainly are emerging markets and i don't think anyone doubts that but is it anything more than that. well i mean first of all i think i mean i belong to the group of people who think it's premature to speak about brics as something a group of countries with a lot of things in common and that is you having begun spiration is for global influence in the world so far it's only it's only one country in that group which
is china who actually has some real influence today all the other countries there so far in global economy terms in trade terms or in your leadership terms they are still still playing playing not in the top leagues so far so i think it's more of an aspiration that it is an accurate description of what we've seen today but look i mean it's absolutely true that many of these countries are going to become much more influential in the world in twenty thirty years from now simply because they're going to grow their economies are going to grow and and that also means they going to have more influence in the world ok i know if i go to you in denver i mean let's go back to the political dimension here and what i said in the beginning of the program can this bloc of countries the brics as the in is a pretty pointed out maybe it'll be more countries be an alternative to the west because that's what they're touted for in the minds of so many people not just because their emerging markets are like countries growing out there the west is not growing particularly fast what about the political mission of brics as it expands.
yes indeed. i don't think that they should be lionized or given eyes i think they should be analyzed both economically and politically according to the models that i have run by two thousand and thirty actually the brics group plus probably a few others. like indonesia. even nigeria could actually be that driving force of the world economy but more importantly politically i think we have not seen anything like this since i would say one doing in the one nine hundred fifty s. when some countries tried to take a nonaligned an independent course and as i have expressed myself in several places this could actually be a harbinger of a much less hypocritical much more charts and much more stable world what do you
think about its vote is a very strong word less hypocritical than the western centric world that we live in today. i really like what hi there said because this could be viewed as a new burn doom the been doing at the time you know it came out and nothing for counter-revolutionary against but going by special european elites was really hardcore in american leads as well including the vietnam war so the nonaligned movement which is one hundred countries big look up the bricks some sort of guiding like models like many see china as a model effect inside bric brazil nowadays under the obama she's in beijing right now trying to clean chill out of deals she's looking at the state model of china to try to reorganize brazil's industrial policy which at the moment is neil there's no industrial policy in this country brazil is becoming like an exporter of raw materials and they need state presents they need some guidance the way you have you
find in chinese model so you can export manufactured products and and compete with other countries like for instance embraer now they have a factory in china they're selling more executive jets to china this is the way to go otherwise brazil will be selling soya beans in orange juice to kingdom come and the nonaligned countries they look at the in south america they look at brazil as a model in asia they look at china as a novel russia it's not much of a model to anybody unfortunate well you know model has a model that would sell very very articulate very well in any cannot all at the same time fredricka if i go to you fredricka hear me on the lead here let me add something here go ahead go ahead jump in. ok let me add something here about brazil and india i think clearly china is economically the powerhouse but the studies that
i have done on india and brazil as well as in china in the you know haitians systematically indicate to me that. if they do not make too many policy mistakes both brazil and china and perhaps even russia within fifteen years sexually can have a very diversified and flourishing economy and add to that democratic strengths brazil and india and china indeed can learn something from these two countries as well ok fredricka franco to you i mean one of the things it's obvious to everyone is that economic power is translated into political power and a lot of these countries the emerging markets they see that with these institutions are run by western countries the world bank the i.m.f. well some people even go as far as say that nato is being used as a replacement for the security council the united nations being the world's policemen when he gets down to his institutions in a brick bricks is very young when you think it could turn into some kind of political institution as an alternative because as the ritually get the more
resources they will have. no i don't think so i think i mean i think one of the thing which is going to characterize the rise of of emerging markets is that to go into can't compete with each other about economics and about politics so see increasing increase in increasing tensions between those countries themselves and some of them are certainly going to make a lot of efforts in order to united states or or europe in order to be on this side whether it's you know concerns trade issues or where there's concerns arms deals or what have you so i think i think i mean look i mean i i i want the greek countries to succeed i want them to have extremely rapid economic growth in an extend twenty thirty forty years because that's going to be very very good for the population of those countries but i don't think it will happen so i think we are talking about an aspiration here which is which is a little bit speculative and it certainly is yet to come and the only thing we can
count on so far is basically that in all matters at least in economics today what countries like india and brazil are afraid o. is competition from china it's competition from china that's what they are afraid of and as long as the mindset of of of brazil russia india and others are going to be of that kind it's going to be tremendously difficult to forge any sort of strong alliances. nato or the west that is aligned since the lies that we saw grew during the cold war ok ted what do you think about that because the west can still could divide and conquer these bricks this brick organization mindset and they're still competing among themselves it's a good point yes it's true that competition among themselves absolutely true like brazil industrialists there are three hundred nine following dilma to be this week they are trying to close some side of some deals to sell brazilian products in
china but china basically the factor of the world they don't need. by manufacturer bribes from anybody apart from that technology which is the case of imbra because they could have jets but and russia basically it's still monoculture it's oil and gas and weapons industry as well so diversification of the brazilian the indian economy is going to take i would say at least another two generations but the most important see you my view is the political power in the long run of bricks or brick or the large bricks. first of all trying to get rid of that absolutely stupid mechanism which is natal which has now become the you know the weaponized arm of the united nations and who wants to rule the world as the best chinese scholars that writing and saying it openly i talked to one of them last week and
this is how they see it they see the pentagon with germany this point i want you to finish it i want you to finish your africa i want then taken over we were we come back from the break i want you to finish your point after the break we'll continue our discussion on the challenges to the west state with our. the first. to be soon which prices. move. from funds to christians. whose claims constantine don't come. wealthy british scientists.
like free. markets. can find out what's really happening to the global economy for a no holds barred look at the global financial headlines to name to cause a report on r g. kick. start. to think. welcome back to cross talk i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're talking about the position of the bric countries on the global stage. kick. start. ok frederick i like to go to you in brussels that i was talking about something that i think was very interesting before we went to the break and is it any use countries get richer and richer their political
clout may or may not depending on how collectively they work together become more powerful but we have these institutions that are in place today pepper was talking about nato also we have the united nations security council in europe we're going to have to have institutional evolution to accommodate these growing populations and richer populations we cannot continue with the not i nine hundred forty five political order and i'm looking at the united nations security council how do you think that's going to happen is the west recedes in power and wealth and the rest of the world comes up for good other parts of the world what's the institutional change that has to occur. well i mean that's a very good question i'm afraid i don't have a good answer for you i mean i think the solutions will look different between the international institutions that exist if you look at if you start with the bretton woods institutions the i.m.f. and the world bank i think there is already now a very good case to make for increasing increasing the influence of the merging
markets and that would launch the comma the expense of the influence of the smaller european economies have been in those organizations today and i think that's something which should be pushed much more rapidly than it has been so far especially as far as china is concerned because chinese economy which has the liquidity and the capital in order to be part of big time leadership for the world economy india russia and brazil certainly doesn't have that at least not yet but china china and are so china needs to have a much more say in the design of policy from these institutions if you go to the g twenty for instance which has become the new sort of committed to run the world in economic affairs i think it's something which is going to diminish in an important simply because it was it was an institution that function well at the height of the crisis when governments needed to come together in order to avoid
a repetition of the kids type of protectionism a lot of the one nine hundred thirty s. and the great depression and it served that purpose quite well but now that we are starting to deal with other type of issues like for instance global financial regulations we can clearly see that the interest between countries here are fundamentally different and of course also the the you know this size of this size of economies in the size of of of in this case the financial services sector is also differ so much between these countries that it's impossible to get through and even when there is no god has really something they may be to be talking about in a in china this week i don't find out here it they ask maybe my first the same question in a different way is should a break countries i name in to reinvent the world order or just be grown up enough to sit at the adult table to the west established over the past half century. ok i think there are several aspects here one is economically the
greeks are already there at the table a. recent move by brazil by china by russia to actually fund the i.m.f. and to. push for special drawing rights gradually replacing dollar i think are very significant moves we also are seeing the emergence of what i call regional financial architecture and these can dovetail with. i don't think i agree with fred that there would be a kind of permanent clash of interests economically or politically among these countries plus when brics get augment it by what can be called cement as well and other emerging countries but i think the essence of the matter is that there are really no permanent competition or permanent cooperation in the world we have to go issue by issue by issue we already are seeing cooperation in finance we're seeing
cooperation in high technology we're seeing cooperation in terms of specific. and materials politically i think this conference that is going to take place in a few days in china is very very significant not only because south africa has been brought in and africa now has a representation as well but more importantly there will be a kind of. political clout as i institutionalization now. aside from brics we also have bilateral and trilateral discussions between russia and china between india and brazil and south africa etc so what we are experiencing i think now is actually not to growing up. getting a seat at the table that somebody else are set but actually thinking about the size
and shape and the kind of table that we need ok tell me if i can go to you i mean one thing that could really mix of all the works in is the bric countries expand their influence and maybe have a more common common agenda is getting rid of for a dollar i mean if you if you got them all together and started working on it that would be a pretty amazing event in may and maybe that's what the one major event the world needs to really shake it out. exactly this this is this is what the chinese and the brazilian specially have been talking bilaterally i would say for at least two years now reform of the international finance system and adopting a basket of currencies which would probably include the dollar the euro the convertible you won the ryal which at the moment is. valued relation to the dollar was to twenty four or five years ago now it's one hundred fifty seven yesterday so this is possible but this reform of the international
system which evolves more see at the i.m.f. and world bank for emerging markets especially the brics has to be followed by a political reform at the u.n. security council this is much more complicated because the european elites specially and washington they just don't want more seats at the table for emerging markets like well well more or less promised india a seat at the security council he was in brazil three weeks ago and he skirted the issue completely and obviously the brazilians are in fact is i think is one of the major mistakes of brazilian foreign policy the are putting all their chips in this we want to be recognized with a seat at the security council this is very important it has to be a group of countries has to be germany india brazil indonesia turkey top the reform of the u.n. structure which is totally dependent from the u.s. at the moment any having for instance militaristic david cameron which practically launched a war based on a resolution they draft inside the u.n.
security council ok fredricka and i could go to you as i want to hypothesize let's say it's two thousand and fifty has the west become more like the bric countries or is the bric countries become more like the west do you think's going to change. well i i i i i mean i don't think it's that simple. but i mean if i had to choose between one of your teletypes it would certainly be there could be countries would have become more like the west both in terms of you know new type of political institutions in countries like china and russia where you know democracy is fragile or where democracy is nonexistent and in a class in a country like china it is civil liberties would i'm sure is going to be stronger than they are today so i think they are moving along a trajectory of of political modernization there which is he's going to make them closer to western type of political institutions. i think i mean i mean to come back to one of the issues that we've been talking about here i mean my point is
basically of is that we have lots of countries in the world right now which can be described as middle kingdoms and certainly india brazil and russia i belong to that particular group these are you know countries with aspirations in countries which have you know which have grown in stature and influence in the past in the past decade but they are far from countries that actually can lead and actually can achieve something by leadership on the global scene and one of the one of the most striking things i i think when you look at the ability to lead is to is to you know when you when you look at surveys among population which countries they would like to move to if they had the opportunity to do so take for instance china there was a survey in china one and a half year ago among what was called the chinese elites where there are six they were asked the question if you could would you rather move to the united states
then to stay in china seventy five percent of respondents say yes we would rather move to the united states instant to remain in china if you look at a lot of people that's because their standard of living is there because they wanted so-called american freedoms or it's because they want to live a comfortable life. well i mean i think it's i think it's a combination of things i mean everything from you know you can you can you know environmentally do a much better life in the united states you can do in beijing or shanghai but i think it also concerns you know civil liberties political institutions and having this sort of capitalist. that you simply don't have in a trainee's economy or in writing and acquire a minor economy hider if i'd like to ask you i mean by the year two thousand and fifty when you think of my my question is the west going to be more like the brics today with the brics to be more like the west where you think ok first of all let us be reminded of what you would you know school said about prediction that we can only pretty things after they have happened but moving on. i think.
one thing that i can predict out with some certainty compiles in fifty although i have different scenarios but even in the worst scenario. we'll have collectively a higher g.d.p. . and the g c i can also predict that some certainty that. education in terms of you know patient systems. infrastructure breaks will be certainly farther ahead of the united states if not weeks as a whole interim solved our politics i think they are much harder to predict my hockey is i jump in here real quick or i want you to time and why do i want to give people the last word forty seconds go ahead. try to remember things show ping's masterplan in seventy eight he said that by two
thousand and forty there could be political freedom in china can you imagine if that happens the thousand for you get to two thousand and fifty we the asian century already established china as a democratic powerhouse and an economic powerhouse and they're back to where they were for eighteen of the last twenty centuries so my bets are on raging ok gentlemen thank you very much many thanks to my guest today and from palo brussels and in denver and thanks to our viewers for watching as you are to see you next time and remember across doctoral. candidate. for the full swing we've got it for. the biggest issues get